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[Metallix87]

I think Vita is saved in Japan.

Saved means a viable platform for niche titles and a few major titles.

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

 

[vareon]

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

I think they are more interested in releasing content on the PS3 instead.

 

[crinale]

I think they are more interested in releasing content on the PS3 instead.

Yeah few month ago NIS stated how they are displeased by releasing game to NDS. I don't think they'll be releasing game to Nintendo platform anytime soon.
(They even said they learned that what platforms are "fit" for their games in that interview).

 

[hongcha]

I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

I think they'll stick with the Vita, PS3, and PS3/Vita cross releases, as that's where most of their audience is. Niche games do very well on the Vita, and certain genres sell better there than on the 3DS, despite the 3DS having a 10x larger user base. Look at Senran Kagura, for example.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wii U are holding better than expected; but I'd be hesitant to say it's found a new floor considering the pattern before Golden Week. I think people (myself included) thought Vita had hit a floor last year, before it plumbed new depths.

Yakuza bomba as expected.

There is an audience on the Wiiu buying other games.

The only non-Nintendo published game that I'm aware of that has been bought in substantial quantity has been Monster Hunter.

Dengeki numbers last week put the Wii U at 1.69M total units of software sold over 28 titles. ~1.1M of that is attributable to 5 Nintendo titles (NSMBU, NSLU, Nintendo Land, Lego City and Game & Wario).

The last number on Garaph for Monster Hunter had it at like 200K, although I don't know if it's higher now. 400K, or less, for everything else; so 18K or less LTD on average for the other 22 titles.

So by and large they aren't buying "other games" in general. The userbase has bought Nintendo games and a reasonable segment has bought Monster Hunter.

If the installed base was buying other games in general, you'd presumably see more other games releasing for the system.

Edit: Oh, I forgot Dragon Quest - what was that at last count?

 

[DaBoss]

Dragon Quest X.

EDIT: Got no clue. Dengeki probably has it for retail. Supposedly it did well digitally due to some promotion of owning the game on the Wii gives you half price on the digital version of DQX on the Wii U.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I agree with AniHawk, it's not falling as fast at it did earlier this year, and I don't think it'll fall back to that ~4K level now. I do not think that it is close to being a healthy platform yet though.

My reasoning:

Between now and the end of October it has 7 games, 4 of which are exclusive.

Between Game & Wario and DQX release and Pikmin 3's release it had 5 games released, one of which (Rabbids Land) was exclusive.

After October, there's still Mario and Wii Party, too.

 

[pieatorium]

Wii U are holding better than expected; but I'd be hesitant to say it's found a new floor considering the pattern before Golden Week. I think people (myself included) thought Vita had hit a floor last year, before it plumbed new depths.

like road said if you go and look august tends to be better than july for sales, an example would be vita also selling 9-11k in this same period last year even on weeks with no new games.

I don't think you ca credit pikmin for any kind of stability yet.

My reasoning:

Between now and the end of October it has 7 games, 4 of which are exclusive

the 3 non exclusives are batman, epic mickey and splinter cell. These are not going to move any software let alone hardware.

the 4 exclusives are
sonic : could barely sell 20-30k on wii
W101: we've had bomba expectations for a while but it should do better than sonic at least
WWHD: the only one that might do some good numbers imo

I'm not sure what the 4th exclusive is?

 

[MasterSheen]

Dragon Quest X.

EDIT: Got no clue. Dengeki probably has it for retail. Supposedly it did well digitally due to some promotion of owning the game on the Wii gives you half price on the digital version of DQX on the Wii U.

It's was 150k the last time we got an update (50k retail, 100k digital).

 

[Nibel]

I love how some think that SEGA could have used the money from the port for a real localization of Yakuza 5

Yakuza games are expensive to localize because of the huge amounts of text and also they probably would have re-adjusted the game for the western gamers - and all that for a 100% bomba that's sadly not worth localizing in the first place, with or without money in the pockets

The Wii U HD port was a experiment obviously and it failed spectacularly - yet, who is really surprised by this? It didn't perform well on PS3 as well and I'm certain the fan base is eagerly awaiting Yakuza 6 for PS4 instead (Vita spin-off might be cool though).

So, what are the next interesting releases?

 

[StreetsAhead]

like road said if you go and look august tends to be better than july for sales, an example would be vita also selling 9-11k in this same period last year even on weeks with no new games.

I don't think you ca credit pikmin for any kind of stability yet.



the 3 non exclusives are batman, epic mickey and splinter cell. These are not going to move any software let alone hardware.

the 4 exclusives are
sonic : could barely sell 20-30k on wii
W101: we've had bomba expectations for a while but it should do better than sonic at least
WWHD: the only one that might do some good numbers imo

I'm not sure what the 4th exclusive is?

Wii Fit U and also Rayman Legends (I don't believe it's been announced for the other platforms in Japan due to Nintendo publishing). So, in fact there are 8 games, 5 of which are exclusive.

I'm not saying any of these titles will necessarily sell gangbusters, but actually having exclusives/games released semi-frequently should help prevent it from hitting ~4K again.

EDIT: Batman is December for Wii U. There's a best price of COD and a re-release of Romance of the 3 Kingdoms, though. Either way, my point is that there are more releases coming in the next ~3 months than the period between G&W/DQX and Pikmin 3 and so the system should, in theory not drop to the lows of that period.

 

[pieatorium]

In the same period last year (late aug -end oct) vita had

Miku
DJ Max
EDF
Ys
Fifa
LBXW
Zero no Kiseki
Street Fighter x Tekken

most are ports/remakes but most are also higher potetial than what wiiu has coming

By the end of october it was back down to 5k despite selling in the same 9-11k region as wiiu is now in the corresponding time.

 

[StreetsAhead]

In the same period last year (late aug -end oct) vita had

Miku
DJ Max
EDF
Ys
Fifa
LBXW
Zero no Kiseki
Street Fighter x Tekken

most are ports/remakes but most are also higher potetial than what wiiu has coming

By the end of october it was back down to 5k despite selling in the same 9-11k region as wiiu is now in the corresponding time.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on what 'higher potential' means for most of those titles.

Also, I'd argue that that list, in your words, being mostly ports and remakes changes the situation relative to Wii U's, where that is not the case. Most of Wii U's games are exclusive or releasing concurrently with other versions of the games on other platforms. It's not like I'm suggesting the Wii U's base will suddenly be 50K, or even go up at all, necessarily, I'm just saying I don't think it'll drop back down to ~4K with the line up that it has.

 

[pieatorium]

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on what 'higher potential' means for most of those titles.

Higher potential for sales

Miku was 160k first week, the only wiiu game with a remote chane of coming close from your list is wwhd

ys was 40k first week maybe w101 can match that but nothing else in that wiiu list will

Zero no kiseki 20k first week is probably bigger than everything not named wwhd and w101.

EDF and LBXW in the 12-15k first week higher will be higher than what sonic, rayman, splinter cell or mickey can sell

I would expect most of those to be in the ame range or lower than Street Fighter x Tekken and Little big planet 5-6k first weeks

the only one other than w101 and wwhd that might make a decent start is wiifit but i personally think it's going to be a massive bomb.

 

[Aquamarine]

Wii U are holding better than expected; but I'd be hesitant to say it's found a new floor considering the pattern before Golden Week. I think people (myself included) thought Vita had hit a floor last year, before it plumbed new depths.

Yakuza bomba as expected.
The only non-Nintendo published game that I'm aware of that has been bought in substantial quantity has been Monster Hunter.

Dengeki numbers last week put the Wii U at 1.69M total units of software sold over 28 titles. ~1.1M of that is attributable to 5 Nintendo titles (NSMBU, NSLU, Nintendo Land, Lego City and Game & Wario).

The last number on Garaph for Monster Hunter had it at like 200K, although I don't know if it's higher now. 400K, or less, for everything else; so 18K or less LTD on average for the other 22 titles.

So by and large they aren't buying "other games" in general. The userbase has bought Nintendo games and a reasonable segment has bought Monster Hunter.

If the installed base was buying other games in general, you'd presumably see more other games releasing for the system.

Edit: Oh, I forgot Dragon Quest - what was that at last count?

Dragon Quest X for Wii U was at:
72,654 as of 2013-06-30 (Famitsu)
66,258 as of 2013-07-14 (Dengeki)

The last time it charted on Media Create / Famitsu was Week 27, 2013 (Jul 01 - Jul 07), where it came in #47 on Media Create.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Thanks, Aquamarine.
So essentially other than those seven titles listed, Nintendo's publishing and two of the biggest brands in Japanese gaming (one of which was considered an underperformer iirc), on average "other games" have sold around 16K at retail. Curious whether that compares favorably or not historically to other platforms - do we have an equivalent tie ratio for the PS3? The Wii was 2.53.

----

On Vita last year v. Wii U this year in terms of line ups...

I really don't see how exclusivity makes the sales potential of a title and its impact on hardware better, in and of itself.

The best selling Wii U third party titles are up-ports of Wii/3DS titles.

A EDIT: multiplatform* Hatsune Miku had far more sales potential and potential for hardware impact than really anything on the Wii U, bar Wind Waker, in the equivalent period.

*Oops, thanks pieatorium.

 

[pieatorium]

A late port of Hatsune Miku had far more sales potential and potential for hardware impact than really anything on the Wii U, bar Wind Waker, in the equivalent period.

miku wasn't a port it was the first release for that game, the ps3 version came later

 

[StreetsAhead]

Higher potential for sales

Miku was 160k first week, the only wiiu game with a remote chane of coming close from your list is wwhd

ys was 40k first week maybe w101 can match that but nothing else in that wiiu list will

Zero no kiseki 20k first week is probably bigger than everything not named wwhd and w101.

EDF and LBXW in the 12-15k first week higher will be higher than what sonic, rayman, splinter cell or mickey can sell

I would expect most of those to be in the ame range or lower than Street Fighter x Tekken and Little big planet 5-6k first weeks

the only one other than w101 and wwhd that might make a decent start is wiifit but i personally think it's going to be a massive bomb.

OK, that's fine. We'll disagree.

I feel it's a side issue to my point that I don't think that the Wii U will be dropping back down to 4K again for October 31st, but I'm willing to eat all the crow in the world the second it hits 4,999 or below.

 

[pieatorium]

OK, that's fine. We'll disagree.

I feel it's a side issue to my point that I don't think that the Wii U will be dropping back down to 4K again for October 31st, but I'm willing to eat all the crow in the world the second it hits 4,999 or below.

I don't see how you can see it a a side issue.

I'm directly addressing your point by arguing that the vita had the same or more games in the period you are highlighting for the wiiu, and that those games had a better sales potential, and also that the vita was selling almost exactly in the same range prior to the period you're highlighting.

 

[cafemomo]

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

NIS handheld of choice will still be the Vita.
The market they target is small in numbers for the 3DS.

 

[1st Course]

FF X HD and GE2 could have really helped the Vita if they weren't on other platforms, and even despite that I expect both of them to do very well on the Vita (300k+).

 

[cafemomo]

FF X HD and GE2 could have really helped the Vita if they weren't on other platforms, and even despite that I expect both of them to do very well on the Vita (300k+).

I personally see FFX/X-2HD moving Vita units.
Might even surpass 3DS sales for the week

 

[Jonnyram]

I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

The 3DS will never be viable for those companies.

 

[jeremy1456]

I personally see FFX/X-2HD moving Vita units.
Might even surpass 3DS sales for the week

I seriously doubt it.

It's not exclusive and comes bundled together on the PS3.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

If the titles don't drop in popularity I seriously doubt this. We've seen increased support from Vita from these sorts of devs this past year and most of them have been rewarded with higher than expected sales. None (Or at least very few) of the test games for Vita thus far have performed poorly.

Moreover, you're missing the actual angle Sony is using: as a multiplatform compliment to the PS3. 3DS overall is more successful than either platform individually but being able to create multiplatform titles for Vita/PS3 is a huge boost for the system in getting new titles.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I don't see how you can see it a a side issue.

I'm directly addressing your point by arguing that the vita had the same or more games in the period you are highlighting for the wiiu, and that those games had a better sales potential, and also that the vita was selling almost exactly in the same range prior to the period you're highlighting.

Because the Wii U is not the Vita, nor is it in the same situation. I recognise that those numbers are possible, I just don't think they'll happen. I explained my reasoning.

Again, as you said yourself, many of those titles were ports or remakes last year and that is not the same for the Wii U, regardless of what you assume their sales potential are and I think that it makes a difference to their ability to keep the hardware out of the 4K range. You disagree and that's fine.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Because the Wii U is not the Vita, nor is it in the same situation. I recognise that those numbers are possible, I just don't think they'll happen. I explained my reasoning.

Again, as you said yourself, many of those titles were ports or remakes last year and that is not the same for the Wii U, regardless of what you assume their sales potential are and I think that it makes a difference to their ability to keep the hardware out of the 4K range. You disagree and that's fine.

Out of curiosity, why exactly do you think that being exclusive intrinsically increases the propensity of the software to impact hardware regardless of the actual sales potential of said particular titles?

As opposed to multiplatform titles or ports of titles from more established or proven sellers?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Out of curiosity, why exactly do you think that being exclusive intrinsically increases the propensity of the software to impact hardware regardless of the actual sales potential of said particular titles?

As opposed to multiplatform titles or ports of titles from more established or proven sellers?

Well I think the idea is that people who really want to play an exclusive game may buy a Wii U to do so (unless they borrow a friend's or something). If you were a console gamer in Japan, it's very possible you already have a PS3. If you don't own a Vita/Wii U yet and want a particular multiplatform game, you're very likely to get it on PS3 instead. I think it's almost guaranteed that ports of older titles will sell worse than the original unless there is something people find super valuable in the rerelease.

 

[fred]

Wow, 14 3DS titles in the top 20 is insane. :Oo

 

[ZSaberLink]

Wow, 14 3DS titles in the top 20 is insane. :Oo

Really? It seems pretty common in Japan honestly these days...

 

[StreetsAhead]

Out of curiosity, why exactly do you think that being exclusive intrinsically increases the propensity of the software to impact hardware regardless of the actual sales potential of said particular titles?

As opposed to multiplatform titles or ports of titles from more established or proven sellers?

Because people who want those titles are unable to get them on other systems, necessitating a purchase of the system to buy them unlike Vita where a lot of the games were or had been available on other systems. For example, Vita jumped from 10K to 50K because Miku was available only on Vita when it launched, unless I am mistaken. If it had also been available for PS3 on the same day, I think that (in the situation last year) it would not have done nearly as well at pushing hardware.

I propose a similar thing could happen with these titles on Wii U on a (much) smaller scale, but rather than pushing Wii U's hardware up, might keep it from falling back down to 4K levels.

This is the reasoning I had for my statements based on pieatorium's statements and comparisons.

My original reasoning was that the Wii U hit its lowest points in the three months between Game & Wario/Dragon Quest X's release and Pikmin 3's. During that time there were only 5 games released*3 and no first party games (which made up 3/5 best sellers on the platform, iirc, at that time*) and only one exclusive.

Therefore, I expect a period of about three months which will see ~9 games (re-)released*2, the majority of which are exclusives or first party games (5/9), will not see a return to the lowest numbers seen in the 3 months prior to Pikmin 3.

Again, I'm willing to be proven wrong by actual numbers as we move forward. It's just my expectation.

*Unless I am mistaken, the Top 5 Wii U software the week of their release was:

1. NSMBU
2. Nintendo Land
3. Monster Hunter 3G HD
4. Dragon Quest X
5. Game & Wario

*2 The games I refer to here, coming between now and Oct 31st, are:

1. The Wonderful 101
2. COD: Blops II BEST PRICE
3. Splinter Cell Black List
4. The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD
5. Disney Epic Mickey 2
6. Romance of the 3 Kingdoms w/ Power Up Kit
7. Rayman Legends
8. Sonic Lost World
9. Wii Fit U

*3 The 5 games, as far as I can tell, were:

1. Resident Evil Revelations HD
2. Rabbid's Land
3. F1 Race Stars
4. Injustice Gods Among Us
5. Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

So what is freedom wars then?

 

[pieatorium]

Because people who want those titles are unable to get them on other systems, necessitating a purchase of the system to buy them unlike Vita where a lot of the games were or had been available on other systems. For example, Vita jumped from 10K to 50K because Miku was available only on Vita when it launched, unless I am mistaken. If it had also been available for PS3 on the same day, I think that (in the situation last year) it would not have done nearly as well at pushing hardware.

I propose a similar thing could happen with these titles on Wii U on a (much) smaller scale, but rather than pushing Wii U's hardware up, might keep it from falling back down to 4K levels.

This is the reasoning based on pieatorium's statements and comparisons.

My original reasoning was that the Wii U hit its lowest points in the three months between Game & Wario/Dragon Quest X's release and Pikmin 3's. During that time there were only 5 games released and no first party games (which made up 3/5 best sellers on the platform, iirc, at that time) and only one exclusive.

Therefore, I expect a period of about three months which will see ~9 games released, the majority of which are exclusives or first party games (5/9), will not see a return to the lowest numbers seen in the 3 months prior to Pikmin 3.

Again, I'm willing to be proven wrong by actual numbers as we move forward. It's just my expectation.

No my reasoning is that the excact same thing happened in the same period for vita last year and it did go back down to 4/5k. I am proposing the same thing happens to wiiu.

9ish games and a bunch of them exclusive especially the bigger ones, Miku and Ys but there was also DJmax and Little Big Planet.

 

[Aquamarine]

Really? It seems pretty common in Japan honestly these days...

It's VERY common. To give you an idea of how common it is:

In the entire year of 2013, there has been only been four weeks so far (Week 4, Week 5, Week 13, Week 17) that the 3DS has not had the plurality of titles (10+) in the Top 30 for Famitsu. And, there was only one week where there was another console that had more titles in the Top 30 than the 3DS (Week 17).

 

[StreetsAhead]

No my reasoning is that the excact same thing happened in the same period for vita last year and it did go back down to 4/5k. I am proposing the same thing happens to wiiu.

9ish games and a bunch of them exclusive especially the bigger ones, Miku and Ys but there was also DJmax and Little Big Planet.

I apologise, my post was unclear.

I was referring to my own reasoning for my arguments following you bringing up a Vita comparison.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't know. I can see the rationale behind both trains of thought.

Ideally you want games that are both exclusive and have high sales potential.
But I still see more value in games that have high sales potential, regardless of being exclusive, to the general mindshare and health of a platform and consequently hardware sales.

In the "hierarchy" of software impacting hardware I'd still think it would go:
Exclusives with high sales potential e.g. something like NSMBU or Wind Waker.
Multiplatform games or ports of high sales potential e.g. something like Monster Hunter 3G HD, Dragon Quest, God Eater 2, FFX HD.
Exclusives of low sales potential e.g. something like Lego City, Sonic Lost World or (sorry people but I think it's going to bomb) The Wonderful 101.
Multiplatform games or ports of low sales potential e.g. something like Blacklist.

 

[Takao]

Good points- didn't know about the mixed reception thing, too. I was really surprised by how well it sold last year. I guess being positioned in the holidays also helped.

One Piece: Romance Dawn lauched on PSP during One Piece: Film Z's theatrical run so a lot of One Piece marketing was going on. It was also the first (I guess only too) One Piece game on PSP.

 

[Takao]

I seriously doubt it.

It's not exclusive and comes bundled together on the PS3.

It could actually be timed exclusives on Vita in Japan, and if that's the case I don't see the PS3 version hurting much.

 

[Glass Rebel]

I really don't think so. As the gap in hardware sales between 3DS and Vita continues to widen, and as Sony continues to show they have no interest in supporting the device, I think more and more we'll see the Vita loyals (Falcom, NIS, etc.) explore releasing content on the more viable 3DS.

It would probably take ages for any of the PlayStation niche developers to gain a foothold on Nintendo consoles. The only way this becomes a likely scenario is if PS3, PS4 and Vita fail to sell the 100something thousand units they need to sell.

So what is freedom wars then?

Another MonHun-like, this time by SCE Japan, I guess.

 

[H13]

Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2013 (μμμ ηη - μμμ ηη)
why did i see like this in the op?
why the date is not shown?
is this the problem in my side?

 

[Takao]

Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2013 (μμμ ηη - μμμ ηη)
why did i see like this in the op?
why the date is not shown?
is this the problem in my side?

It's like this for me too. I thought it was my browser being dumb or something.

 

[darkside31337]

Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2013 (μμμ ηη - μμμ ηη)
why did i see like this in the op?
why the date is not shown?
is this the problem in my side?

Same here as well. Dates also show up as εεεε.μμ.ηη

 

[Madouu]

I think It's a joke for how low

Spoiler

Yakuza

sales are this week.

Those are mathematical symbols for very small units (Epsilon, micro, nano)

 

[Metallix87]

It would probably take ages for any of the PlayStation niche developers to gain a foothold on Nintendo consoles. The only way this becomes a likely scenario is if PS3, PS4 and Vita fail to sell the 100something thousand units they need to sell.

Falcom has already said they're interested in bringing the Legend of Heroes series to the 3DS.

 

[Nirolak]

I think It's a joke for how low

Spoiler

Yakuza

sales are this week.

Those are mathematical symbols for very small units (Epsilon, micro, nano)

I suspect his script is supposed to replace those with dates, but failed for some reason.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Falcom has already said they're interested in bringing the Legend of Heroes series to the 3DS.

They said that a year ago. Nothing has happened yet. What's holding them up?

also, looking for that particular quote, I found this:

:lol

 

[Aquamarine]

I suspect his script is supposed to replace those with dates, but failed for some reason.

Considering how quickly he posts the topic after the data gets released, I'm going to go with this as the reason why.

And it's stayed like that (with the Famitsu numbers yet to be added) because Chris1964 is probably quite busy.

 

[Chris1964]

I think It's a joke for how low

Spoiler

Yakuza

sales are this week.

Those are mathematical symbols for very small units (Epsilon, micro, nano)

έτος
μήνας
ημέρα

I don't have access to the database where I am now, when I get back I'll update.

 

[metalslimer]

Falcom has already said they're interested in bringing the Legend of Heroes series to the 3DS.

Yeah, i doubt it at this point

 

[Takao]

They said that a year ago. Nothing has happened yet. What's holding them up?

also, looking for that particular quote, I found this:

:lol

I, like the rest of the video game world forgot about Wii U.