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[Aquamarine]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,255,555
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 555,555
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 95,555
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 95,555
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 95,555
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 85,555
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 55,555
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 555,555

 

[Glass Rebel]

Predictions

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,233,445
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 445,566
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 98,877
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 33,445
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 77,665
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 112,233
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 22,334
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 556,677

 

[Afrit]

LOL, most of us FF fans will wind up picking this up on PS3 over PS Vita.

True PS3 will take the lead, but it seems there is a sizable demographic in Japan who would prefer the the portable version. Going by the split sales of dragon crown, Japan is the portable land afterall.

After playing P4G, I kinda see the appeal of having your jrpg in portable format. It's quit accessible for pick up & play, since you can suspend anytime. jrpgs in general don't require big screens to be immersive.

 

[Mario007]

True PS3 will take the lead, but it seems there is a sizable demographic in Japan who would prefer the the portable version. Going by the split sales of dragon crown, Japan is the portable land afterall.

After playing P4G, I kinda see the appeal of having your jrpg in portable format. It's quit accessible for pick up & play, since you can suspend anytime. jrpgs in general don't require big screens to be immersive.

I'm buying the Vita version because in the next year my PS3 will be replaced by PS4 under my television and I don't want to go through the trouble of unboxing the ps3 and plugging it in everytime I want to play the game. I can do that already with my ps2.

 

[Exterminieren]

Predictions

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,135,765
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 501,376
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 114,048
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 74,857
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 71,304
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 83,123
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 41,754
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 525,674

 

[Mario007]

So looks like Square might not go bankrupt just yet:

http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08...e-history-of-japanese-psn-first-on-us-amazon/

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,500.000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 600.000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 100.000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 90.000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 80.000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 100.000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 80.000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 800.000

 

[test_account]

So looks like Square might not go bankrupt just yet:

http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08...e-history-of-japanese-psn-first-on-us-amazon/

Not to sound too negative, but its hard to messure from those things how much we're talking about. But i hope for Square Enix's sake that FF14 does well, because they seem to have put a lot of effort into improving it since the initial launch.

 

[Mario007]

Not to sound too negative, but its hard to messure from those things how much we're talking about. But i hope for Square Enix's sake that FF14 does well, because they seem to have put a lot of effort into improving it since the initial launch.

Yeah true that, last I heard Japanese PSN isn't exactly widely used, still it's a nice sign of hope. FFXIV is one of the few games that I'm rooting for Square to do well with because of how they stuck with it and how Yoshida is so cool. I mean they're reasons could have been 'fuck we really need an MMO cause MMOs are the shit' but they stuck with it which is what counts for me. Hell I've ever been into MMOs and am considering picking it up because it had a really nice FF feeling.

 

[hongcha]

Predictions

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,000,000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 700,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 200,000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 100,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 150,000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 110,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 25,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 350,000

 

[Frodo]

Prediction League September, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Aug 26 to Sep 29):

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2.252.525
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 511.111
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 99.999
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 44.444
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 111.111
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 133.333
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 55.555
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 567.890

 

[Alrus]

Yeah true that, last I heard Japanese PSN isn't exactly widely used, still it's a nice sign of hope. FFXIV is one of the few games that I'm rooting for Square to do well with because of how they stuck with it and how Yoshida is so cool. I mean they're reasons could have been 'fuck we really need an MMO cause MMOs are the shit' but they stuck with it which is what counts for me. Hell I've ever been into MMOs and am considering picking it up because it had a really nice FF feeling.

Their reasons for sticking with FF XIV is "fuck we spend so much money on this project, and it's our most important brand, we can't allow it to fail". In the end it seemed to have kinda payed off. Restoring faith in a failed MMO is usually quasi impossible.

 

[Kenka]

predictions

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2.109.876
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 567.890
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 123.456
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 78.901
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 98.765
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 89.012
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 56.789
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 567.890

Da fuck Chris ? You don't give more credit to MH ? I saw that hongcha was the most tight-fisted of the bunch but do you personally think MH will not at least get past 2.5M after three weeks in the charts ?

 

[hiska-kun]

Da fuck Chris ? You don't give more credit to MH ? I saw that hongcha was the most tight-fisted of the bunch but do you personally think MH will not at least get past 2.5M after three weeks in the charts ?

The expected shipment for MH4 first week is 1 million (not counting bundles). Is possible that the shipment increases before the release (the same happened with Jojo that jumped from 300k to 500k), but even this, probably won't be enough stock for the game.

MH4 sales will be what Capcom is able to ship.

 

[Foshy]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,200,000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 680,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 160,000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 42,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 140,000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 58,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 39,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 380,000

 

[duckroll]

Da fuck Chris ? You don't give more credit to MH ? I saw that hongcha was the most tight-fisted of the bunch but do you personally think MH will not at least get past 2.5M after three weeks in the charts ?

Seems to me most people don't, and judging from how MH generally sells and the shipments in question, there's a good reason why. No idea why you're so aggro about it lol.

 

[Fisico]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,300,000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 470,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 110,000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 55,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 135,000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 100,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 55,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 580,000

So any reason as to why Lost Planet 3 will see a huge decline compared to Lost Planet 2?

Well almost everyone didn't know the game even exist, including me, and I don't think that Capcom is heavily promoting it in Japan where it's clearly not the core audience of the series.

But the last episode sold around 200k with both SKU in one month so I don't think that the third episode will only sell around 30-40k

And Ex Troopers was a huge bomba too for what it's worth...

 

[Exterminieren]

Da fuck Chris ? You don't give more credit to MH ? I saw that hongcha was the most tight-fisted of the bunch but do you personally think MH will not at least get past 2.5M after three weeks in the charts ?

I don't think there's much doubt Mon Hun will sell what Capcom puts out. The question is supply, not demand.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Wonderful 101 is out, currently at #78 on Amazon. LEGO charted in the Top 10 for many days, before and after its release date.

Launch event with Kamiya: http://www.4gamer.net/games/168/G016854/20130824021/

Apparently it wasn't a complete flop, at least some people showed up, lol.

DL Card:

Bonus: Sony fanboy pays dust to W101.

 

[Kid Ying]

It was a game ahead of its time...

I just hope that good word of mouth makes the game grow some legs for the generation, just like Xenoblade did. I'm playing right now and it's just a very charming and good game. It deserved better.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Yet another Toriko game announced for the 3DS.

Toriko: Ultimate Survival, due out in Japan in winter 2013, supports four-player co-op multiplayer, has over 10 playable characters (the scan confirms Toriko, Teppei, Rin, and Komatsu), and over 300 types of beasts and plants (like Hannya Panda).

That makes three Toriko games on the 3DS in one year.

Toriko Monsters - 129,953
Toriko Battle - 21,709

 

[Road]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201308/22038720.html

CEDEC 2013 lecture about the development of DQX.

Anyway, shipments update:

DQVIII: 3.8m in Japan / 4.9m worldwide

DQIX: 4.4m in Japan / 5.5m worldwide

DQX: no new shipment or paying subscribers info, but there are 250k to 300k people playing every day.


Video game bussines logic:

1) WoW peak subscribers: 12 million
2) Japan is 14% of the worldwide video game market
3) Japan could have 1.68 million MMO subscribers (12 million x 0.14), right? Yes? No? Anyone?

 

[Bruno MB]

Yet another Toriko game announced for the 3DS.


That makes three Toriko games on the 3DS in one year.

Toriko Monsters - 129,953
Toriko Battle - 21,709

That's surprising since the latest Toriko title bombed hard, half of its first shipment is still unsold.

 

[Mpl90]

Yet another Toriko game announced for the 3DS.


That makes three Toriko games on the 3DS in one year.

Toriko Monsters - 129,953
Toriko Battle - 21,709

This seems more of a MH-esque game than the others, doesn't it?

 

[Kid Ying]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201308/22038720.html

CEDEC 2013 lecture about the development of DQX.

Anyway, shipments update:

DQVIII: 3.8m in Japan / 4.9m worldwide

DQIX: 4.4m in Japan / 5.5m worldwide

DQX: no new shipment or paying subscribers info, but there are 250k to 300k people playing every day.


Video game bussines logic:

1) WoW peak subscribers: 12 million
2) Japan is 14% of the worldwide video game market
3) Japan could have 1.68 million MMO subscribers (12 million x 0.14), right? Yes? No? Anyone?

I thought you were joking in you last sentence, but they actually talk about it in the article! hahaha

 

[Thorgal]

So looks like Square might not go bankrupt just yet:

http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08...e-history-of-japanese-psn-first-on-us-amazon/

I am wondering if most of those pre orders are made because the game is very good or if it is because of the brand name .

Probably a bit of both but I am curious which way the scale tips.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

This seems more of a MH-esque game than the others, doesn't it?

Yep. Just watched some trailers and Monsters is similar to Dragon Quest Monster, and Battle is similar to Smash.

 

[Snowden's Secret]

Video game bussines logic:

1) WoW peak subscribers: 12 million
2) Japan is 14% of the worldwide video game market
3) Japan could have 1.68 million MMO subscribers (12 million x 0.14), right? Yes? No? Anyone?

Is the 14% a revenue thing or a units sold thing? Either way, that's not a perfect conversion (taking either revenue or units sold and converting it to number of players).

 

[Glass Rebel]

So I guess Vita is getting original MH clones while 3DS gets licensed ones?

 

[Foshy]

So I guess Vita is getting original MH clones while 3DS gets licensed ones?

Sounds accurate, yeah

 

[Hitsukara]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2,200,000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 430,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 100,000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 40,000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 140,000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 70,000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 55,000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 520,000

 

[cafemomo]

Poor XIV

 

[test_account]

Yeah true that, last I heard Japanese PSN isn't exactly widely used, still it's a nice sign of hope. FFXIV is one of the few games that I'm rooting for Square to do well with because of how they stuck with it and how Yoshida is so cool. I mean they're reasons could have been 'fuck we really need an MMO cause MMOs are the shit' but they stuck with it which is what counts for me. Hell I've ever been into MMOs and am considering picking it up because it had a really nice FF feeling.

Yeah, its good to see that they really put much more work into FF14

Poor XIV

How so?

 

[metalslimer]

It was a game ahead of its time...

I just hope that good word of mouth makes the game grow some legs for the generation, just like Xenoblade did. I'm playing right now and it's just a very charming and good game. It deserved better.

More like it was a game that didn't get enough advertising on an already failing system, but even with Xenoblade legs this game won't pass 40k.

 

[Chris1964]

sinobi didn't bother to give shipments for anything except for JoJo, nothing big I imagine next week apart from this title, reconfirmed low preorders for Ragnarok.

edit: More from sinobi Dangan-Ronpa Reload is heading for at least 100k sales

I didn't find any info for W101 from the usual retailer blogs, another hit for Wii U on the way it seems.

 

[DaBoss]

I didn't find any info for W101 from the usual retailer blogs, another hit for Wii U on the way it seems.

The game looks so good too.

Watching great players go through the demo was really making me want to go play the game right away. God damn it Wii U owners, what are you buying?

 

[Hero of Legend]

Actually the Toriko games on PSP were MH clones by Natsume, I hope that this new 3DS game is the 3rd entry.

Edit: Should be! The PSP games were called Gourmet Survival, and this is Ultimate Survival, nice!

 

[Magicpaint]

sinobi didn't bother to give shipments for anything except for JoJo, nothing big I imagine next week apart from this title, reconfirmed low preorders for Ragnarok.

edit: More from sinobi Dangan-Ronpa Reload is heading for at least 100k sales

I didn't find any info for W101 from the usual retailer blogs, another hit for Wii U on the way it seems.

Beasting.

 

[Pooya]

1) WoW peak subscribers: 12 million
2) Japan is 14% of the worldwide video game market
3) Japan could have 1.68 million MMO subscribers (12 million x 0.14), right? Yes? No? Anyone?

sure thing it's math!
if only sub MMOs weren't on free fall right now

 

[Hellraider]

Predictions, September 2013

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 2.300.000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 550.000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 140.000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 55.000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 70.000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 100.000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 60.000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 600.000

 

[Nirolak]

The game looks so good too.

Watching great players go through the demo was really making me want to go play the game right away. God damn it Wii U owners, what are you buying?

Well I mean this is a large part of how we got to where we are now with third party support.

The game that really sold is 2D Mario. The other three games that moved units are Pikmin and two gigantic juggernaut franchises that are exclusive to their platform environment, yet sold vastly less than they do on handhelds. Even Nintendo games that break with their traditional viewpoint tank.

What third party is going to look at a game that isn't exactly like a Nintendo franchise or shares their target audience very closely and think "I bet this is a good fit for a Nintendo console," especially in 2013.

 

[Snowden's Secret]

Saw a post on another forum mentioning that first day sell through of TW101 was about 45% of the initial 30K shipment (or about 13K copies)? Anyone actually credible confirm this?

 

[Chris1964]

Saw a post on another forum mentioning that first day sell through of TW101 was about 45% of the initial 30K shipment (or about 13K copies)? Anyone actually credible confirm this?

There isn't Japanese tracker that gives first day sales info for a game released after Thursday.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

After playing the W101 for two nights I feel even more bad for this game's upcoming and predictable terrible sales. It's so fucking good - amazing even - and yet nobody wants it :'-(

 

[Chris1964]

The major reason for this year's weak sales is that the successors of PSP and Wii are underperforming big time. 3DS and PS3 can't keep the market up alone and if PS4 has the same fate next year will be even worse. Monster Hunter and Pokemon will only manage to close the gap with 2012, sales keep falling more behind week after week.

 

[Aquamarine]

Saw a post on another forum mentioning that first day sell through of TW101 was about 45% of the initial 30K shipment (or about 13K copies)? Anyone actually credible confirm this?

It might be conjecture based off of flawed, variable metrics, like trying to draw a connection between the amount of Miiverse posts and the sales of the game.

But Chris1964 is right...there's no public reporting of any first-day sell-through data for TW101 at the moment. There is always a chance that the person in question is some kind of insider, but that's highly doubtful.

Is it possible to tell us what forum you found the information on?

 

[michaelius]

Maybe it was mistranslated info from some shop owner ?

 

[Lumyst]

The game looks so good too.

Watching great players go through the demo was really making me want to go play the game right away. God damn it Wii U owners, what are you buying?

Well, you could use me as a case study, before Xenoblade I was pretty much the dreaded "Only gets Nintendo games" person. Here's what I got for the Wii:

-The Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess
-Elebits
-Wario Ware Smooth Moves
-Super Paper Mario
-Super Smash Bros. Brawl
-Super Mario Galaxy
-Super Mario Galaxy 2
-Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
-The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword

9 games for the Wii, isn't 9 the typical software attach number of a console? Isn't that list sad, one third party game, but pretty much Mario and Zelda. Perhaps this mentality was born from the N64 days, N64 was my first console, and many of the third party games were glitchy trash (by the way, I had PLENTY of third party games for my N64). But Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time? Those were the great games, they stood out. Same with Rare's games, too bad Rare isn't around anymore, if they were I would suspect Nintendo gamers would be buying their games due to name alone, Platinum doesn't really have a deep history with Nintendo hardware yet but they're getting there (if I were Nintendo, though, I would be making sure every Nintendo gamer knows who Platinum is). So anyways, as I grew older, I would ask for "Mario" or "Zelda" because those were quality games. They were the epitome of video games for me, a Nintendo gamer who started with the N64 and whose parents continued to buy Nintendo hardware throughout his life. They were the best that Nintendo had to offer, I thought, and I didn't look for much else beyond that.

tl;dr: They're waiting for Mario, DaBoss ;-)

 

[idlewild_]

Well, you could use me as a case study, before Xenoblade I was pretty much the dreaded "Only gets Nintendo games" person.

Monolith Soft is a subsidiary of Nintendo, so you're still one of those people

 

[Glass Rebel]

Xenoblade is a Nintendo game