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[Moral Panic]

predictions

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (16 days) - 1800000
[PS3] JoJo's All Star Battle (32 days) - 500000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIV ARR (34 days) - 50000
[PS3+360] Lost Planet 3 (32 days) - 50000
[PS3+PSV] Sen no Kiseki (4 days) - 80000
[WIU] Zelda Wind Waker HD (4 days) - 100000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (4 days) - 35000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 400000

Just wild guessing.

 

[Busaiku]

I don't understand why people still think Monolith Soft is a 3rd party company.
It's been like 7 years or something.

 

[Beth Cyra]

I don't understand why people still think Monolith Soft is a 3rd party company.
It's been like 7 years or something.

Took that long or even Longer with Retro. Hell I remember during the Podcast Boom multiple journs speculating that Retro would do something on 360 and PS3.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't understand why people still think Monolith Soft is a 3rd party company.
It's been like 7 years or something.

It's funny because people often think of HAL Laboratory (Kirby, Smash Bros.) and Intelligent Systems (Fire Emblem, Paper Mario) as part of Nintendo, but those companies are completely independent.

Meanwhile, Monolith Soft (which is actually part of Nintendo) frequently gets mistaken as a separate company.

 

[DaBoss]

Well I mean this is a large part of how we got to where we are now with third party support.

The game that really sold is 2D Mario. The other three games that moved units are Pikmin and two gigantic juggernaut franchises that are exclusive to their platform environment, yet sold vastly less than they do on handhelds. Even Nintendo games that break with their traditional viewpoint tank.

What third party is going to look at a game that isn't exactly like a Nintendo franchise or shares their target audience very closely and think "I bet this is a good fit for a Nintendo console," especially in 2013.

Yea, there is a lot of truth to this. I just wish The Wonderful 101 can do well. It really looks like a great action game.

Well, you could use me as a case study, before Xenoblade I was pretty much the dreaded "Only gets Nintendo games" person. Here's what I got for the Wii:

-The Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess
-Elebits
-Wario Ware Smooth Moves
-Super Paper Mario
-Super Smash Bros. Brawl
-Super Mario Galaxy
-Super Mario Galaxy 2
-Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
-The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword

9 games for the Wii, isn't 9 the typical software attach number of a console? Isn't that list sad, one third party game, but pretty much Mario and Zelda. Perhaps this mentality was born from the N64 days, N64 was my first console, and many of the third party games were glitchy trash (by the way, I had PLENTY of third party games for my N64). But Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time? Those were the great games, they stood out. Same with Rare's games, too bad Rare isn't around anymore, if they were I would suspect Nintendo gamers would be buying their games due to name alone, Platinum doesn't really have a deep history with Nintendo hardware yet but they're getting there (if I were Nintendo, though, I would be making sure every Nintendo gamer knows who Platinum is). So anyways, as I grew older, I would ask for "Mario" or "Zelda" because those were quality games. They were the epitome of video games for me, a Nintendo gamer who started with the N64 and whose parents continued to buy Nintendo hardware throughout his life. They were the best that Nintendo had to offer, I thought, and I didn't look for much else beyond that.

tl;dr: They're waiting for Mario, DaBoss ;-)

Mentioned already, but Xenoblade is a Nintendo game. I'm assuming you meant you don't buy Nintendo games outside of the usual titles on the consoles.

Yes, 9 games is a typical attach ratio, and I forget that often. Thanks for reminding me. Well they don't seem to be just waiting for Mario, but they seem to be waiting for games in the series that you've posted.

 

[Jamix012]

It's funny because people often think of HAL Laboratory (Kirby, Smash Bros.) and Intelligent Systems (Fire Emblem, Paper Mario) as part of Nintendo, but those companies are completely independent.

Meanwhile, Monolith Soft (which is actually part of Nintendo) frequently gets mistaken as a separate company.

I call BS on Intelligent Systems. Their headquarters are INSIDE Nintendo grounds.

 

[cafemomo]

Took that long or even Longer with Retro. Hell I remember during the Podcast Boom multiple journs speculating that Retro would do something on 360 and PS3.

How? Wasn't Retro Nintendo from the very beginning?

 

[Lumyst]

Monolith Soft is a subsidiary of Nintendo, so you're still one of those people

I know that Monolithsoft is 1st party lol. My story is such that until I played one of the "other" Nintendo games, I didn't branch off from Mario/Zelda. After playing Xenoblade, I realized that there was MUCH more to be offered from Nintendo, and I actually looked at the whole library of the Wii instead of treating it as a Mario box. I became more of a serious "gamer." Want to know the games I got after I played Xenoblade (for dirt cheap bomba Wii prices)?

-Kirby's Epic Yarn
-Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
-Okami
-Arc Rise Fantasia
-Little King's Story
-Tales of Symphonia Dawn of the New World
-Fragile Dreams
-Sin and Punishment Star Successor
-The Last Story
-Sakura Wars
-Donkey Kong Country Returns
-Pandora's Tower
-Rune Factory Frontier
-Rune Factory Tides of Destiny

I found a hunger for JRPGs that Nintendo alone couldn't fulfill so I had no choice but to buy some third party games What are Nintendo gamers hungry for? I suspect Sonic Lost World is going to satisfy that "Mario game" character platformer hunger of many Nintendo gamers, and I wonder if Wonderful 101 could be a foundation to make Nintendo gamers hunger for more action games in the future, just like Ninja Gaiden 3 obviously did...I'm just dreaming :-(

 

[idlewild_]

How? Wasn't Retro Nintendo from the very beginning?

They started independent, but were acquired after a few years (before they ever released a game, lol.)

 

[Aquamarine]

I call BS on Intelligent Systems. Their headquarters are INSIDE Nintendo grounds.

It's true. While they may have their headquarters inside Nintendo property, Intelligent Systems is independently / privately owned, and is therefore technically not a subsidiary of Nintendo.

That's what makes the confusion even more ironic.

 

[Glass Rebel]

As a first-time participant in the prediction league, I find it fascinating how huge the differences between users are.

I also feel like I'm undrestimating Sen no Kiseki (~75k) and JoJo (~450k). Not going back to edit though.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

They started independent, but were acquired after a few years (before they ever released a game, lol.)

You wouldn't say "lol" if you knew the mess that Retro was before Kelbaugh was appointed as CEO and Nintendo took full control. More than 200 people working on 5 different project and obtaining zero results. This was laughable.

When Nintendo takes control of some independent studio, it's kinda traumatic for the people working there, but some great results are obtained usually.

 

[DaBoss]

As a first-time participant in the prediction league, I find it fascinating how huge the differences between users are.

I also feel like I'm undrestimating Sen no Kiseki (~75k) and JoJo (~450k). Not going back to edit though.

Yea, software is much more finicky than hardware.

 

[L Thammy]

If I am not mistaken, the Wii U needs to sell 24K this week if it isn't going to cross streams with PS3.
(i.e., its LTD will be lower than the PS3's at the same point in its life.)

Even 101 heroes might not be enough to save it. </obviousjoke>


More seriously, the Wii U and 3DS will have to cause some sort of shift in thinking at Nintendo in the following gen. I suspect that the losses taken on the PS3 influenced the design of the PSV and Vita such as the Vita's off-the-shelf parts, memory price, and PS4's Plus push.

Iwata himself took a 50% salary cut when the 3DS was failing, the shift to HD is increasing their costs, and now their console is floundering worse than ever. I can't imagine that one can stick their head in the sand through that.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

The upcoming sales don't really look good for TW101. It really makes me sad to see this all =/

 

[w1gglyjones]

The upcoming sales don't really look good for TW101. It really makes me sad to see this all =/

Are you saying that as a prediction or analysis of data this week's data?

 

[jwhit28]

How did Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D do compared to the rest of the DKC series in Japan?

 

[Nirolak]

I feel the confusion around Nintendo's studios is that they have studios both with and without names.

If Mario was made by Mushroom Studios and Zelda was made by Hyrule Productions, etc, etc, (or conversely if everything was Nintendo), I think there would be a lot less confusion here.

Monolith has extra trouble though because they made games for other publishers after being owned by Nintendo, making it very not apparent they were a first part studio.

Monolith also stylistically doesn't make games that look like other Nintendo titles. This is also true for products like Metroid, but it's been so long that people can figure out series like that more easily.

 

[schuelma]

The upcoming sales don't really look good for TW101. It really makes me sad to see this all =/

Get your puns ready now

 

[Aquamarine]

I feel the confusion around Nintendo's studios is that they have studios both with and without names.

If Mario was made by Mushroom Studios and Zelda was made by Hyrule Productions, etc, etc, (or conversely if everything was Nintendo), I think there would be a lot less confusion here.

Monolith has extra trouble though because they made games for other publishers after being owned by Nintendo, making it very not apparent they were a first part studio.

Monolith also stylistically doesn't make games that look like other Nintendo titles. This is also true for products like Metroid, but it's been so long that people can figure out series like that more easily.

Compound that confusion with the fact that nowadays Nintendo loves to collaborate.

For example, Nintendo EAD #3 might work with Monolith Soft, Intelligent Systems, and SRD Co., Ltd. to produce the next console Zelda game...muddling the distinction between the divisions.

It's easy to lump a game like Fire Emblem: Awakening as a "Nintendo game," when in reality it's a collaboration between Nintendo's internal studios and Intelligent Systems.

 

[Mpl90]

Get your puns ready now

The Wonderful 101! Yeah, 'cause those 101 copies sold are wonderful indeed.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Monolith has been a Nintendo owned studio for years now - there is no confusion rather there are people who have a hard time adapting to the fact that there are Nintendo studios who dont just work on their classic IPs or Casual titles.

 

[test_account]

It was a game ahead of its time...

I just hope that good word of mouth makes the game grow some legs for the generation, just like Xenoblade did. I'm playing right now and it's just a very charming and good game. It deserved better.

Isnt it a game that is more "behind" its time? I've seen some comments that The Wonderful 101 is a more traditional game at least.

 

[Celine]

How did Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D do compared to the rest of the DKC series in Japan?

DKC1 = 3M
DKC2 = 2.20M
DKC3 = 1.77M
DKL = 1.07M
DCKR = 950K
DK64 = 850K
DKCR3D > 250K
DKJB = 220K

 

[Asd202]

Get your puns ready now

Can't wait for those numbers.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Yea, software is much more finicky than hardware.

Oh there's a huge difference for 3DS sales as well, 300k as the lowest and 800k as the highest prediction.

 

[jwhit28]

DKC1 = 3M
DKC2 = 2.20M
DKC3 = 1.77M
DKL = 1.07M
DCKR = 950K
DKCR3D > 250K

Thanks. Does this include the SNES pack ins? Did those even happen in Japan?

 

[prag16]

It's funny because people often think of HAL Laboratory (Kirby, Smash Bros.) and Intelligent Systems (Fire Emblem, Paper Mario) as part of Nintendo, but those companies are completely independent.

Meanwhile, Monolith Soft (which is actually part of Nintendo) frequently gets mistaken as a separate company.

HA. That's news to me (RE HAL and Intelligent Systems). The misconception is perpetuated undoubtedly by people generally referring to Nintendo when talking about Smash/Kirby/FE/etc. without mentioning HAL or IS, while in the case of Monolithsoft, people almost always specifically mention Monolith.

 

[baekshi]

I'll try this again, it's been a while

Prediction League September, 2013


Those are way too low imo. Even LBX W 3DS did better than that. And MH4 is going to do better than that in its first week. Any reason you think it's going to underperform this badly?

Not that it's going to do bad, just bigger legs in the long run - did update to 1.8m anyway. Didn't see it was 2 weeks.

Not sure about LBX W tho - think it will just flop being between MH and Pokemon.

Also updated numbers.

 

[Busaiku]

This is the first time I'd ever heard of Intelligent Systems being independent.
How does that even make sense, they are part of Nintendo HQ, and were spun off of a Nintendo R&D team.

 

[Celine]

Compound that confusion with the fact that nowadays Nintendo loves to collaborate.

For example, Nintendo EAD #3 might work with Monolith Soft, Intelligent Systems, and SRD Co., Ltd. to produce the next console Zelda game...muddling the distinction between the divisions.

It's easy to lump a game like Fire Emblem: Awakening as a "Nintendo game," when in reality it's a collaboration between Nintendo's internal studios and the third-party Intelligent Systems.

The what now?

 

[metalslimer]

I thought is was a subsidiary of nintendo im pretty sure nintendo owns them especially when they do r&d

 

[Aquamarine]

The what now?

Internally, Nintendo only recognizes two distinctions:

"First-party" (owned by Nintendo) and "Third-party" (not owned by Nintendo).

But I'll remove that descriptor.

 

[GulAtiCa]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Game Freak also independent? Looking at wiki tells me they've made several games for different systems before, including one for PSOne (a few years after Pokemon Red/Blue came out), Sega Genesis (early 90s) and so on. I find it kinda funny they have several games that were published by Sony (some of which are on SNES)

Also, not surprised about people being Monolith Soft being 1st party. I remember having to correct someone a few months ago, who was very much into games (has a neogaf account, ign, etc), that they were 1st party. He was hoping they make something for the PS3/PS4. I found it a little funny.

Heck, I didn't even know about Monolith Soft as a company till Xenoblade came out myself. I knew of Xenogears and Xenosaga though beforehand.

 

[Celine]

I feel the confusion around Nintendo's studios is that they have studios both with and without names.

If Mario was made by Mushroom Studios and Zelda was made by Hyrule Productions, etc, etc, (or conversely if everything was Nintendo), I think there would be a lot less confusion here.

Monolith has extra trouble though because they made games for other publishers after being owned by Nintendo, making it very not apparent they were a first part studio.

Monolith also stylistically doesn't make games that look like other Nintendo titles. This is also true for products like Metroid, but it's been so long that people can figure out series like that more easily.

Shikamaru can correct me, but with Iwata reorganization I don't think that inside Nintendo HQ there are different "studios" or immutable "team".
There are groups lead by a manager but personnel shuffle depending on the need.

Other entities physically separated by space (ie: EAD Tokyo in Tokyo, ND Cube in Sapporo, Retro Studios in Austin etc.) retained their different name but that's it.

In these days games require so much man power that Nintendo often collaborate with other third-parties.

However on the cover of the game there is only the Nintendo logo because that's the only thing that count to be displayed.

 

[Nirolak]

Shikamaru can correct me, but with Iwata reorganization I don't think that inside Nintendo HQ there are different "studios" or immutable "team".
There are groups lead by a manager but personnel shuffle depending on the need.

Other entities physically separated by space (ie: EAD Tokyo in Tokyo, ND Cube in Sapporo, Retro Studios in Austin etc.) retained their different name but that's it.

In these days games require so much man power that Nintendo often collaborate with other third-parties.

However on the cover of the game there is only the Nintendo logo because that's the only thing that count to be displayed.

Right, this isn't uncommon, but if they had like... studio brand names they associated with the groups, even if they're very large, I think it would cause less confusion.

That said, I don't think the confusion is overly relevant since obviously the games are still exclusive to the platform regardless.

 

[Celine]

Internally, Nintendo only recognizes two distinctions:

"First-party" (owned by Nintendo) and "Third-party" (not owned by Nintendo).

But for clarification, I'll remove that descriptor.

I really thought IS was owned by Nintendo but it seems you are right.
My bad.

Right, this isn't uncommon, but if they had like... studio brand names they associated with the groups, even if they're very large, I think it would cause less confusion.

They have the names group 1, 2, 3 and so on

 

[Nirolak]

All right, since I'm also interested in talking about the business aspect of this, I'll raise the question in here too.

Level 5 has announced a new branding called Uniplay. They have six smartphone games they are putting under it, most of which will presumably be unveiling within 12 hours.

However, what's a bit unusual about these games is the staff working on them.

The company is developing a fantasy role-playing game titled Wonder Flick. Level 5 CEO Akihiro Hino (Professor Layton series) is directing the loot-focused RPG, Final Fantasy composer Nobuo Uematsu is handling the music, Nao Ikeda (Final Fantasy XII) is handling the character designs, and Takuz&#333; Nagano (Professor Layton and Inazuma Eleven series) is designing the boss monsters.

The basic game will be free, but will include extra items that can be purchased. Level 5 plans to release the game this year.

...

Level 5 also revealed the Majin Station (Devil Station) role-playing game for Android and iOS devices last week. Level 5 again plans to release the game for free this year. Jir&#333; Ishi (Time Travellers) is directing the game, Yuusuke Kozaki (Fire Emblem Awakening, Intrigue in the Bakumatsu - Irohanihoheto) is handling the character designs, and Takeshi Oga (Gravity Daze) is handling the devil and concept design.

Now, one of them is a regular ass smartphone game, so we'll ignore it, but here are the websites for the other two. I've included descriptions of what the webpages look like in case anyone can't access the pages:

http://www.wonderflick.jp/ (Visually, this one has kind of a traditional JRPG look to it. Think Bravely Default or FFG, that kind of thing.)
http://www.majinstation.jp/ (Visually, imagine something more along the lines of SMT, but more like Devil Survivor than the main series.)

So, my questions:
1.) Level 5 billed all these games as being made by "Wonderful Staff". Now, while I assume some of them are working on multiple projects (like Hino himself), I have to imagine some of the directors are only on their project. Do you think this represents a strategy shift for Level 5 to have more prominent mobile games overall, perhaps at the cost of some of their handheld output? Jiro Ishii (Time Travelers) especially sticks out given he doesn't have another game announced.
2.) Do you think more mid-size publishers/developer will follow suit? Obviously we've seen big publishers attempting this, and some 1-2 team studios, but Level 5 is kind of interesting size wise.
3.) If these are not just card battle RPGs (which seems to be the implication?), and they have success, do you think they will inspire more traditional-ish Japanese games to show up on mobile?

 

[Stumpokapow]

I have no idea if traditional-ish games will show up on mobile but Indo know that they won't show up in any large numbers on handhelds anymore

 

[Glass Rebel]

I can only think of a single original traditional JRPG series on smartphones, namely Chaos Rings with its three entries in three years...

 

[Aquamarine]

[B][U]Tsutaya Software Sales Rankings: Week 34, 2013 (Aug 19 - Aug 25)[/U][/B]

[B]01./NEW	[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice
02./NEW [PSV] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu[/B]
03./01. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life
[B]04./NEW [PSV] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III - Pride of Justice[/B]
05./02. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Dream Team
06./03. [3DS] Youkai Watch
07./06. [3DS] Friend Collection: New Life
[B]08./NEW [PS3] Dungeons & Dragons Collection: Mystara Eiyuu Senki[/B]
09./04. [3DS] Ace Attorney 5
10./12. [PS3] Earth Defense Force 2025
[B]11./NEW [3DS] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu[/B]
12./05. [PS3] Dragon's Crown
13./10. [3DS] Fantasy Life: Link!
14./09. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf 
15./08. [WIU] Pikmin 3
[B]16./NEW [WIU] The Wonderful 101[/B]
17./07. [3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake
18./18. [PSP] Dangan-Ronpa (PSP the Best)
19./13. [PSP] Toukiden
20./21. [PS3] The Last of Us
[B]* New releases are in bold
3DS - 9
PS3 - 5
PSV - 2
WIU - 2
PSP - 2[/B]

No Comgnet yet, but I'll post it when it releases.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, that looks pretty dire for TW101.

 

[Nirolak]

I have no idea if traditional-ish games will show up on mobile but Indo know that they won't show up in any large numbers on handhelds anymore

Right, that's why I'm wondering if developers will try to migrate that over to mobile, or if we will just see straight decline.

When genres started fading in the West, we saw them revive themselves on downloadable services and eventually kickstarter, but there's not as obvious a location in Japan right now I feel.

There is extreme growth on mobile though, so there is at least a lot of money and users that could potentially be interested in such things on the platform.

I can only think of a single original traditional JRPG series on smartphones, namely Chaos Rings with its three entries in three years...

Yeah there aren't many as whole, especially that have had any notable kind of promotion.

Square Enix has been going on about how they want to bring more traditional handheld/console games to mobile, and we did see them do that with Deus Ex, but if they're going to follow through in Japan will be an interesting question.

This is a fairly new strategy though so at earliest I imagine we will see it at this TGS, but quite possible the next instead.

 

[cafemomo]

Poor W101
Well...at least 16 is better than 17.....

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I feel bad for Kamiya, not for the game, it looks really boring and stupid.

 

[DaBoss]

I feel bad for Kamiya, not for the game, it looks really boring and stupid.

What...is this? I don't even...

Especially at the double bolded and underlined.

 

[Frodo]

I feel bad for Kamiya, not for the game, it looks really boring and stupid.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions... But you are wrong.

 

[Jamix012]

Well, that looks pretty dire for TW101.

I'm predicting it'll have legs like Pokemon Red/Green...Please?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Well, that looks pretty dire for TW101.

If it's about that position on the national charts it should sell between 10K and 15K, which is terrible, but it might be lucky and get ~40K LTD in the end.

 

[spatenfloot]

Not the usual 3DS domination of the top 10.