Guess those bundle is not going to had the same effect as 2DS Pokemon bundle?(Sold around 100k?)
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Guess those bundle is not going to had the same effect as 2DS Pokemon bundle?(Sold around 100k?)
Of course there wasn't mystery Vita, Trinity is coming.
So far everyone expects Persona 5 is vastly outperform all previous entries and practically every Atlus game released to date. I wonder how that will stack up to reality. I've also noticed that most expect only a modest boost on PS4 hardware, despite the slim launch coinciding with the biggest Japanese PS4 release since MGSV.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
PREDICTION LEAGUE PERSONA 5 EDITION
Predict how much these products will sell in the week (from Sep 12 to Sep 18):
[PS4] Hardware (7 days) - 90,000
[PS4] Persona 5 (4 days) - 260,000
[PS3] Persona 5 (4 days) - 100,000
Predict how much these products will sell in the week (from Sep 12 to Sep 18):
[PS4] Hardware (7 days) - 90,000
[PS4] Persona 5 (4 days) - 260,000
[PS3] Persona 5 (4 days) - 100,000
I don't know if P5 will outsell P1 in Japan. The Japanese console market is not what it once was. When people say P5 will be the biggest Atlus release, they are talking about global. I think P5 can push about as many PS4 as ToB, in other words, not many. The boost of PS4 sale will mainly come from the people that plan to buy PS4 in the recent month but hold off for new model.
The Yen isn't weak at the moment... quite the opposite. It's stronger than it was before.
***
Also, a tidbit about the Nintendo mobile games, only 4 games before April 2017 instead of 5.
http://time.com/4482878/super-mario-run-apple-iphone-shigeru-miytamoto/
No we're not? Just look at the past page of predictions. Pretty much everyone is expecting P5 to sell close to or over P1's LTD in the first week.
Persona 5 first week predictions so far:
340k
280k
435k
530k
329k
382k
330k
280k
360k
370k
516k
The Highest Atlus release LTD in Japan appears to be Persona 1 at 391k (1996 Top100 Famitsu Numbers). Most Atlus hits tend to sell ~250k LTD. So the current outlook on Persona 5 here seems very optimistic.
340k
280k
435k
530k
329k
382k
330k
280k
360k
370k
516k
The Highest Atlus release LTD in Japan appears to be Persona 1 at 391k (1996 Top100 Famitsu Numbers). Most Atlus hits tend to sell ~250k LTD. So the current outlook on Persona 5 here seems very optimistic.
I must be remembering P1's number wrong. Damn Atlus really wasn't doing very well back then, I remember all JRPGs sold like hot cake on PSX in Japan.
280
280
329
330
340
360
370
382
435
516
530
Even in this list if you remove very high and low (<300k and >400k) it gives an average of 350k. I'd say that's a reasonable number for first week.
Right, obviously I too feel that ~350k is a reasonable expectation, since I also predicted around that range. With how Atlus has handled the franchise and the overall expansion of their brand in the last few years, it's certainly a result that should be achievable. What I'm looking at is how surprising this actually is when compared to the overall scope of things. This isn't just expected to be the biggest Persona game, but the biggest release for the company in their entire history, dating back to the SFC. Especially given the console climate in Japan these days, if they succeed, the achievement is really remarkable.
Not saying for everyone who made big predictions, but...
In my P5 prediction numbers, having no big competition in general plus the delay of FFXV plus a simultaneous release with an upgraded hardware plus a bit of hyping up from the stores make me optimistic about P5's sales on PS4. My realistic prediction before the Slim and FFXV delay announcements was around 270k FW combined PS4+PS3, but maybe I'm blinded with the optimistic outlook to make 330k combined lol. Here's hoping P5 will be Atlus' biggest break yet. I mean P5 should be the indicative game that the Persona franchise really grows mainstream in Japan.
As for my 60k PS4 sales prediction, I still don't think Persona is the system seller on the level of Metal Gear or Final Fantasy. Just not yet. If without the Slim announcement I would have predicted 30k-40k sales on that week. But because of the unusual drop of PS4 the last couple of weeks and the Slim release on the 15th, I see the Slim sales making a catch up to those lost numbers, but just not as much. If I remember correctly, MGSV didn't really boost PS4 numbers that high, and the game sold like more than 300k on opening week on PS4 alone. I guess a lot of those who are interested in P5 may have already bought the system much earlier. So I'm pretty much pessimistic on this one.
In my P5 prediction numbers, having no big competition in general plus the delay of FFXV plus a simultaneous release with an upgraded hardware plus a bit of hyping up from the stores make me optimistic about P5's sales on PS4. My realistic prediction before the Slim and FFXV delay announcements was around 270k FW combined PS4+PS3, but maybe I'm blinded with the optimistic outlook to make 330k combined lol. Here's hoping P5 will be Atlus' biggest break yet. I mean P5 should be the indicative game that the Persona franchise really grows mainstream in Japan.
As for my 60k PS4 sales prediction, I still don't think Persona is the system seller on the level of Metal Gear or Final Fantasy. Just not yet. If without the Slim announcement I would have predicted 30k-40k sales on that week. But because of the unusual drop of PS4 the last couple of weeks and the Slim release on the 15th, I see the Slim sales making a catch up to those lost numbers, but just not as much. If I remember correctly, MGSV didn't really boost PS4 numbers that high, and the game sold like more than 300k on opening week on PS4 alone. I guess a lot of those who are interested in P5 may have already bought the system much earlier. So I'm pretty much pessimistic on this one.
One thing to consider is that Media Create has Persona titles sales higher than Famitsu, even close to 500k. It's not that the franchise was small but it looks that it's growing.
Which ones are close to 500k? Is that with re-releases combined?
It's not mentioned much but I think that Tales of Berseria release one month before will probably help Persona 5, there's probably a good overlap between the audiences and Berseria served as a wake up call for all the PS3/PS4 owners out there, now one month after Berseria many of them should be able to move on to their next game and not just play your usual Pazudora Granblue etc. when commuting to/from work.
There's also FFXV delay which might slightly help, before there was going to be 3 big JRPG in a 5-6 weeks time frame with Persona 5 being sandwiched between the two others, with FFXV delay I think that leaves enough time for your old time JRPG fan, something like
"Oh there are these three games I want, I'll buy the first one since it's released much earlier, the second and third are released close to each other though maybe I want to play FFXV first and I'll just buy a second-hand copy of Persona 5 later on this year"
And the Slim launch of course, but rather than more overall sales I think it will mostly contribute to higher sales for the PS4 SKU at the expense of the PS3 SKU.
By themselves each fact do not account much, but combined together they will definitely help its momentum and FW sales (by how much ? Who knows, could be 10k could be 50k...)
Also it's been said multiple times, but the game would've sold much better had it been released on PS3 back in 2011-2012-2013
There's also FFXV delay which might slightly help, before there was going to be 3 big JRPG in a 5-6 weeks time frame with Persona 5 being sandwiched between the two others, with FFXV delay I think that leaves enough time for your old time JRPG fan, something like
"Oh there are these three games I want, I'll buy the first one since it's released much earlier, the second and third are released close to each other though maybe I want to play FFXV first and I'll just buy a second-hand copy of Persona 5 later on this year"
And the Slim launch of course, but rather than more overall sales I think it will mostly contribute to higher sales for the PS4 SKU at the expense of the PS3 SKU.
By themselves each fact do not account much, but combined together they will definitely help its momentum and FW sales (by how much ? Who knows, could be 10k could be 50k...)
Also it's been said multiple times, but the game would've sold much better had it been released on PS3 back in 2011-2012-2013
GhostTrick
Banned
My prediction:
[PS4] Persona 5: 260k
[PS3] Persona 5: 180k
[PS4] Persona 5: 260k
[PS3] Persona 5: 180k
I don't have the database available right now but I think it's with budget re-releases.
Even if total comes correct a 3:2 split isn't happening.
Was about to say that, you can look at Berseria's or at Comgnet's numbers (for what it's worth) but a 60/40 will definitely not happen.
GhostTrick
Banned
What do you mean ? One will be left behind ?
More like 70/30 you mean ?
I didn't made the split on purpose though. so yes, I guess smaller PS3 sales and higher PS4 sales. Like 300k and 140k
Dat Pokémon first gen sales :O
orthodoxy1095
Banned
PREDICTION LEAGUE PERSONA 5 EDITION
Predict how much these products will sell in the week (from Sep 12 to Sep 18):
[PS4] Hardware (7 days) - 125,000
[PS4] Persona 5 (4 days) - 330,000
[PS3] Persona 5 (4 days) - 100,000
Never do predictions, but I can't help myself. Wildly and stupidly optimistic, I know.
Predict how much these products will sell in the week (from Sep 12 to Sep 18):
[PS4] Hardware (7 days) - 125,000
[PS4] Persona 5 (4 days) - 330,000
[PS3] Persona 5 (4 days) - 100,000
Never do predictions, but I can't help myself. Wildly and stupidly optimistic, I know.
I think it will be very front loaded, as many PS4 releases.
I agree with you in terms of LTD numbers and about a possible bigger PS4 hw boost due to the Slim in that very same week.
That 3DS remake of the original Pokémon games was only released in Japan?! May be why I've never been able to play it
By the way, the chart shows clearly that Pokémon OR/AS sales were increasing even before Pokémon GO (too bad the chart doesn't go further back).
Father_Brain
Banned
Miyamoto seemed to confirm this in the TIME interview.
Yup, I did post it earlier:
http://time.com/4482878/super-mario-run-apple-iphone-shigeru-miytamoto/
Given there was still nothing about either Animal Crossing or Fire Emblem, a delay was inevitable.
I'm wondering if they didn't delay AC:Mobile for more of a tie in with NX AC while getting AC:NL ready in the mean time and letting it "slow boil" on its own + amiibo.
Similarly with FE, as Fates is way out of the mind share by this point and I think they'd want to save it until a new entry is somewhat closer to being realized.
Similarly with FE, as Fates is way out of the mind share by this point and I think they'd want to save it until a new entry is somewhat closer to being realized.
That makes sense.
I suspect they just needed more time.
Kabam put up a piece about how these days, mobile games are expected to launch with notably more content (and especially replayable content) than they were a couple of years ago in order to retain players successfully: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-09-08-usd10m-production-budgets-avoiding-the-shark-fin
I suspect they just needed more time.
Kabam put up a piece about how these days, mobile games are expected to launch with notably more content (and especially replayable content) than they were a couple of years ago in order to retain players successfully: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-09-08-usd10m-production-budgets-avoiding-the-shark-fin
As noted in the August NPD thread, as I was... underwhelmed... by the presser, I don't expect too much from this price drop aside from returning the baseline back up to >20k after it had started slipping. So a ~4-5k boost per week. It should, however, have a decent boost to Persona as it gives fans an excuse to jump in or from PS3 to PS4.
Yes, this is also a very real possibility. I just thought it peculiar that they snuck out the Mario Run but somehow the other teams haven't finished their projects. Made me think they were busy with other things, and the AC team obviously is given the content coming to NL.
Yes, this is also a very real possibility. I just thought it peculiar that they snuck out the Mario Run but somehow the other teams haven't finished their projects. Made me think they were busy with other things, and the AC team obviously is given the content coming to NL.
The only non-SE JRPGs on PS1 that sold more than P1 were the Tales games, BOF3 and Wildarms 1. Square and to a lesser extent Enix really cleaned up on the system though. Also some subgenre stuff like Arc the Lad, Popolocrois, SD Gundam or Super Robot Taisen outsold P1.
If you include Saturn then Grandia 1 also sold more when combined with the PS1 port. And on N64 Paper Mario sold more.
It's entirely possible they're busy, but if I had to guess, I'd say the biggest factor in Super Mario Run coming out first is that it's a game that is just launching a set amount of content (at least up front) instead of a service expected to last for years on end.
I wonder how they plan on expanding the lifespan of the game, considering they want to release a map maker...
P5 Slim bundle already sold out on amazon and sitting at scalper prices
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01LPTFJ6E/
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B01LPTFJ6E/
amazon sell-out reports never get old.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93915205&postcount=1393
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93915205&postcount=1393
I just think the big factor is that Mario is the one that will get big headlines. Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing will be good earners but Apple wouldn't have featured Fire Emblem on stage.
Rakuten also sold-out.
http://books.rakuten.co.jp/rb/14428224/
Very limited, though. Any impact on real sales, I think. Let's wait to the daily report of Rakuten.