Shocking
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Media Create Sales: Week 37, 2013 (Sep 09 - Sep 15)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Shocking
What if the lesson the new SE learns from it is that FF on consoles no longer sells and FF XVI will be an iOS game? Because that's an actual fear after the CEO change.I just want to see it tank to teach SE a lesson about making unnecessary sequels.
Koei most likely won't try another SLG on 3DS
unless Pokemon is involved
Some impressions from retailer blogs
MH4 was restocked but still in short supply
Sales for 3DS LL and its peripherals remain very strong
Koei most likely won't try another SLG on 3DS
Yeah, looking at Amazon charts, MH4 became available again yesterday, but it's sold out again. No infos about new shipment, yet.
shinra-bansho
Member
Wow at Monster Hunter - in an era where singular system sellers are an endangered species. Sony was absolutely stupid to let this leave their ecosystem, they should have paid through the nose for it if they actually cared about Vita being a success. Conversely, Nintendo was brilliant to get it on the 3DS, as whatever audience they've lost that used to drive games like Nintendogs and Brain Training, can be mitigated by consolidating the core audience from the PSP (the same has occurred in the US, I think).
Regarding Wii Fit U having its physical release delayed - I don't know whether people have entertained the possibility already but couldn't it simply be that Nintendo couldn't secure the retailer shelf space for anything beyond the Fit Meter. The balance board seems a considerable space hog.
Various other commentary on recent events that I'll just put here since it's probably the most active SalesAge thread.
On the Wii U back to sub-5K:
A few weeks ago people were speculating on stabilisation at a higher level. Something something advertising. Something something Pikmin. Something something Wonderful 101. Sleeping dragons and heatwaves. It looks set to dip below pre-Pikmin. Hopefully now people will realise that advertising simply can't make a fundamentally unappealing product proposition sell and that, no, Nintendo titles alone aren't going to be enough.
The core problems with the product persist - it's USP is not broadly appealing and Nintendo still haven't produced anything to make it so; it doesn't have the technical advantage to provide impetus for transition to 7th gen early adopters (although this is probably less of an issue in Japan, where something like Drakengard 3 is released in 2013), and it doesn't have sustained software output because third parties are not on board. None of these are really easily fixable problems.
On the Wii U Western price drop:
I actually thought they were being sincere with the "no price drop" talk. The data they're seeing must be even worse than that which is publicly available. It's still not enough to significantly spur sales. As noted above, there are still fundamental problems with the product which mean the "core" market simply aren't going to be interested, while the price itself is still too high against competing value propositions of the PS3 and 360 (and the Wii as well actually), for the low-end market.
On the Vita Western price drop:
It's too late, and there's simply not a big enough Western dedicated handheld market to support an expensive upmarket device. But...
On Vita TV:
I have said before I thought the notion some people had that Vita could somehow become relevant as a $250 accessory was complete nonsense. I still maintain that, but the idea that the core technology of Vita could remain relevant as a $100 accessory to the PS4 wasn't a notion anyone had entertained. I think this is a smart move, and despite not yet announcing for the West, I think it's clearly a Western focused device.
I know people have noted the Vita still lacks games that will appeal to Western markets. I think that's a moot point. I think Sony have realised that Vita itself is never going to be a success. Vita TV, or rather PlayStation TV - what I think it will be called in NA and EU, Sony have already trademarked this with the USPTO - is essentially an attempt to salvage some sort of use or return from the costs they've sunk into Vita. It is essentially being repurposed as a PS4 streaming device/accessory.
On the 2DS:
This was a great move by Nintendo. The DS line needs to be as accessible to traditional "casual" market for handhelds in the West - children - in the face of devices that offer much more that many households now have (tablets, smartphones) and that offer gaming at a pittance as cheap or free apps. A lot of the core will baulk at it - it's frankly rather hideous - but families looking for a cheap Christmas gift will not. It will be interesting whether this can reverse the overarching trend of dedicated handhelds in the West - and whether this will be the DSLite moment for the 3DS in terms of surging in popularity.
I think it's also an admission that the 3D gimmick simply didn't fly, and it has implications for other hardware gimmicks. Prior to the 2DS, I would have thought the Wii U GamePad was too central to the product - but I think now all bets are off and if they really feel the pressure they will drop the controller in order to produce a lower priced SKU.
On the PS4 Japanese release date and line-up:
I thought it might have a December launch, but February makes more sense if the games aren't there. At the same time, I think this is probably a half-truth and more about ensuring there's sufficient supply for more important and more competitive territories. Overall, the line up is somewhat underwhelming. The only big seller is probably Yakuza Ishin. At the same time, I don't know how much it really matters if there's a general perception that there are many games to come. It will have Metal Gear Solid 5. It will have Final Fantasy XV. It will have Kingdom Hearts 3.
In one of the earlier threads I commented on how poor the PS2's launch line-up in Japan (with the biggest title being Ridge Racer V at 233K) was and whether new technology can simply sell on the virtue of being new technology if it's priced affordably. I still think this can be the case, at least at launch. The PS4 is essentially the same price as the PS2 was, with a similarly poor launch line-up, but the question is: how much has the market changed.
On the PS4 fiscal year target of 5M:
I think it's an ambitious but achievable goal, and if they're setting such a forecast they must be seeing favourable internal data with regard to pre-orders. I expect the bulk of that will be intended for NA and Europe. The only two systems I can find info on that surpassed 5M in launch FY shipments were the PS2 (staggered launch so hard to compare, cumulative production shipments so not actually sell-in) and the Wii.
On recent game bombs (Wonderful 101, Splinter Cell Wii U, Puppeteer):
There seems to be a persistent theme of throwing titles under the bus when they fail to perform. The Wonderful 101 went from much-hyped core darling, star of its own Nintendo Direct, to a game that was apparently always destined to abysmal failure. And there are always "reasons," marketing, missing a game mode. But at the end of the day the reason these titles didn't sell on their respective platforms was simply audience mismatch.
Regarding Wii Fit U having its physical release delayed - I don't know whether people have entertained the possibility already but couldn't it simply be that Nintendo couldn't secure the retailer shelf space for anything beyond the Fit Meter. The balance board seems a considerable space hog.
Various other commentary on recent events that I'll just put here since it's probably the most active SalesAge thread.
On the Wii U back to sub-5K:
A few weeks ago people were speculating on stabilisation at a higher level. Something something advertising. Something something Pikmin. Something something Wonderful 101. Sleeping dragons and heatwaves. It looks set to dip below pre-Pikmin. Hopefully now people will realise that advertising simply can't make a fundamentally unappealing product proposition sell and that, no, Nintendo titles alone aren't going to be enough.
The core problems with the product persist - it's USP is not broadly appealing and Nintendo still haven't produced anything to make it so; it doesn't have the technical advantage to provide impetus for transition to 7th gen early adopters (although this is probably less of an issue in Japan, where something like Drakengard 3 is released in 2013), and it doesn't have sustained software output because third parties are not on board. None of these are really easily fixable problems.
On the Wii U Western price drop:
I actually thought they were being sincere with the "no price drop" talk. The data they're seeing must be even worse than that which is publicly available. It's still not enough to significantly spur sales. As noted above, there are still fundamental problems with the product which mean the "core" market simply aren't going to be interested, while the price itself is still too high against competing value propositions of the PS3 and 360 (and the Wii as well actually), for the low-end market.
On the Vita Western price drop:
It's too late, and there's simply not a big enough Western dedicated handheld market to support an expensive upmarket device. But...
On Vita TV:
I have said before I thought the notion some people had that Vita could somehow become relevant as a $250 accessory was complete nonsense. I still maintain that, but the idea that the core technology of Vita could remain relevant as a $100 accessory to the PS4 wasn't a notion anyone had entertained. I think this is a smart move, and despite not yet announcing for the West, I think it's clearly a Western focused device.
I know people have noted the Vita still lacks games that will appeal to Western markets. I think that's a moot point. I think Sony have realised that Vita itself is never going to be a success. Vita TV, or rather PlayStation TV - what I think it will be called in NA and EU, Sony have already trademarked this with the USPTO - is essentially an attempt to salvage some sort of use or return from the costs they've sunk into Vita. It is essentially being repurposed as a PS4 streaming device/accessory.
On the 2DS:
This was a great move by Nintendo. The DS line needs to be as accessible to traditional "casual" market for handhelds in the West - children - in the face of devices that offer much more that many households now have (tablets, smartphones) and that offer gaming at a pittance as cheap or free apps. A lot of the core will baulk at it - it's frankly rather hideous - but families looking for a cheap Christmas gift will not. It will be interesting whether this can reverse the overarching trend of dedicated handhelds in the West - and whether this will be the DSLite moment for the 3DS in terms of surging in popularity.
I think it's also an admission that the 3D gimmick simply didn't fly, and it has implications for other hardware gimmicks. Prior to the 2DS, I would have thought the Wii U GamePad was too central to the product - but I think now all bets are off and if they really feel the pressure they will drop the controller in order to produce a lower priced SKU.
On the PS4 Japanese release date and line-up:
I thought it might have a December launch, but February makes more sense if the games aren't there. At the same time, I think this is probably a half-truth and more about ensuring there's sufficient supply for more important and more competitive territories. Overall, the line up is somewhat underwhelming. The only big seller is probably Yakuza Ishin. At the same time, I don't know how much it really matters if there's a general perception that there are many games to come. It will have Metal Gear Solid 5. It will have Final Fantasy XV. It will have Kingdom Hearts 3.
In one of the earlier threads I commented on how poor the PS2's launch line-up in Japan (with the biggest title being Ridge Racer V at 233K) was and whether new technology can simply sell on the virtue of being new technology if it's priced affordably. I still think this can be the case, at least at launch. The PS4 is essentially the same price as the PS2 was, with a similarly poor launch line-up, but the question is: how much has the market changed.
On the PS4 fiscal year target of 5M:
I think it's an ambitious but achievable goal, and if they're setting such a forecast they must be seeing favourable internal data with regard to pre-orders. I expect the bulk of that will be intended for NA and Europe. The only two systems I can find info on that surpassed 5M in launch FY shipments were the PS2 (staggered launch so hard to compare, cumulative production shipments so not actually sell-in) and the Wii.
On recent game bombs (Wonderful 101, Splinter Cell Wii U, Puppeteer):
There seems to be a persistent theme of throwing titles under the bus when they fail to perform. The Wonderful 101 went from much-hyped core darling, star of its own Nintendo Direct, to a game that was apparently always destined to abysmal failure. And there are always "reasons," marketing, missing a game mode. But at the end of the day the reason these titles didn't sell on their respective platforms was simply audience mismatch.
On the PS4 Japanese release date and line-up:
I thought it might have a December launch, but February makes more sense if the games aren't there. At the same time, I think this is probably a half-truth and more about ensuring there's sufficient supply for more important and more competitive territories. Overall, the line up is somewhat underwhelming. The only big seller is probably Yakuza Ishin. At the same time, I don't know how much it really matters if there's a general perception that there are many games to come. It will have Metal Gear Solid 5. It will have Final Fantasy XV. It will have Kingdom Hearts 3.
In one of the earlier threads I commented on how poor the PS2's launch line-up in Japan (with the biggest title being Ridge Racer V at 233K) was and whether new technology can simply sell on the virtue of being new technology if it's priced affordably. I still think this can be the case, at least at launch. The PS4 is essentially the same price as the PS2 was, with a similarly poor launch line-up, but the question is: how much has the market changed.
.
I dunno. I'm looking at the PS2 launch and it had Ridge Racer which sold 233k at launch and over 600k LTD.
You then had Tekken Tag 3 weeks later which almost hit half a million.
I don't think PS4's launch lineup as we know it even compares to that, frankly.
I would also guess that the DVD capability might have played a role in the insane launch sales.
I could very well be wrong- I have been a lot lately- but IMO the market has fundamentally changed since then and I don't think a cross platform Yakuza and a bunch of Western titles is going to be enough to turn heads for more than a few weeks. Is that launch lineup really going to show off new technology? I'm somewhat skeptical.
Unless FFXV somehow releases in 2014 I think things are going to go very slowly.
Everything else I agree with except for TW101. I think the former is a game that is hard to market and convey what it is about.
I think there are 2 extremes we see a lot on this forum for Wii U software. One is that the Wii U is the only reason a game bombed and its yet another indictment of the platform, etc. I think that goes too far. The other extreme is saying well this game was never going to sell well, etc. That goes too far the other way- W101 is not a game that was ever going to sell a lot of copies..but it certainly should have sold more than what it did.
I think there are 2 extremes we see a lot on this forum for Wii U software. One is that the Wii U is the only reason a game bombed and its yet another indictment of the platform, etc. I think that goes too far. The other extreme is saying well this game was never going to sell well, etc. That goes too far the other way- W101 is not a game that was ever going to sell a lot of copies..but it certainly should have sold more than what it did.
No doubt. With as much attention as Nintendo gave it, it bombed hard.
1st Course
Member
The only two systems I can find info on that surpassed 5M in launch FY shipments were the PS2 (staggered launch so hard to compare, cumulative production shipments so not actually sell-in) and the Wii.
There was the GBA too, iirc it sold something crazy like 10m in its first 6 months or something similar.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yeah, I was only looking at home consoles. In that other thread about the forecast, I was surprised when people were saying that seemed a low expectation. It's historically a very high expectation.
I do agree that the Wonderful 101 was a product that was difficult to sell as well. But I think that's a more fundamental problem that still has the same result of a product with low broad appeal - they ended up with something that appealed neither to the Western or Japanese markets, to core or casual.
In a sense it somewhat mirrors the Wii U.
On a personal anecdotal level: I bought a PS3 around the time the Slim came out for Final Fantasy XIII and Vs XIII (LOL at me) and got Uncharted 2 with it - just as an example of what I mean.
The idea that people adopt new technology purely for the new technology may not be as valid in Japan I fully concede, where the market seems far more satisfied with lower fidelity graphics. And there isn't a new format to accompany it like DVD, that's true.
On the whole I don't expect it to match the PS2 (which shipped 1.4M in its Japanese launch quarter). I actually expect something closer to half of that - as I agree the market simply isn't the same.
Thanks. I've missed the Sales-Age discussion. Hopefully, I won't have any more forced hiatuses.Wow, welcome back Shinra!
I do agree that the Wonderful 101 was a product that was difficult to sell as well. But I think that's a more fundamental problem that still has the same result of a product with low broad appeal - they ended up with something that appealed neither to the Western or Japanese markets, to core or casual.
In a sense it somewhat mirrors the Wii U.
The thing is I don't know how much people really bought the system just for those games on the PS2 (Ridge Racer, Kessen etc), even though they ultimately sold quite well - as opposed to really buying it because it was the hot new thing and would eventually have Final Fantasy X and Dragon Quest, and well I can play Ridge Racer for now I guess.I dunno. I'm looking at the PS2 launch and it had Ridge Racer which sold 233k at launch and over 600k LTD.
You then had Tekken Tag 3 weeks later which almost hit half a million.
I don't think PS4's launch lineup as we know it even compares to that, frankly.
I would also guess that the DVD capability might have played a role in the insane launch sales.
I could very well be wrong- I have been a lot lately- but IMO the market has fundamentally changed since then and I don't think a cross platform Yakuza and a bunch of Western titles is going to be enough to turn heads for more than a few weeks. Is that launch lineup really going to show off new technology? I'm somewhat skeptical.
Unless FFXV somehow releases in 2014 I think things are going to go very slowly.
On a personal anecdotal level: I bought a PS3 around the time the Slim came out for Final Fantasy XIII and Vs XIII (LOL at me) and got Uncharted 2 with it - just as an example of what I mean.
The idea that people adopt new technology purely for the new technology may not be as valid in Japan I fully concede, where the market seems far more satisfied with lower fidelity graphics. And there isn't a new format to accompany it like DVD, that's true.
On the whole I don't expect it to match the PS2 (which shipped 1.4M in its Japanese launch quarter). I actually expect something closer to half of that - as I agree the market simply isn't the same.
On recent game bombs (Wonderful 101, Splinter Cell Wii U, Puppeteer):
There seems to be a persistent theme of throwing titles under the bus when they fail to perform. The Wonderful 101 went from much-hyped core darling, star of its own Nintendo Direct, to a game that was apparently always destined to abysmal failure. And there are always "reasons," marketing, missing a game mode. But at the end of the day the reason these titles didn't sell on their respective platforms was simply audience mismatch.
I'm having trouble buying some of this.
"The Wonderful 101 went from much-hyped core darling, star of its own Nintendo Direct, to a game that was apparently always destined to abysmal failure."
I'm sure there were people who believed this, but I don't think it was the majority.
Even looking at GAF you could clearly see problems from the start. A lot of people scoffed at the reveal or needed explanation to "get" the demo. The director himself was complaining about a lack of advertising before the game came out, and I think there were a lot of people at that point who thought that Nintendo's normal method of advertising was unsuitable for that release.
I don't remember anyone saying that Splinter Cell or Puppeteer were going to do well, but maybe I just wasn't around for that?
But at the end of the day the reason these titles didn't sell on their respective platforms was simply audience mismatch.
This I'm also having trouble with. "Mismatch" implies that the game is for the wrong system, which I don't think is correct.
The Wii U doesn't have enough successful software to really define it as anything, I'd think. It's got New Super Mario and Nintendo Land, but those haven't been exploding. If a casual game were to be released with all of the problems that have been mentioned for Wonderful 101, I think it would still fail. As you yourself has noted, the 3DS and the Wii U's "hardware gimmicks" are not appealing and the casual audiences seen on the Wii and DS have largely left.
Unless I'm mistaken, two of the biggest games on the Wii U (as little as that says) are the ports of Monster Hunter 3G and Dragon Quest X. One is an action game and the other appeals heavily to eighties nostalgia (when Super Sentai got its start). Obviously these are much more popular series and not everyone who plays these games would find Wonderful 101 enjoyable, but they're games that hit some similar buttons, probably most appealing to similar age groups, and yet didn't sell so horribly.
I think that Wonderful 101 would perform better on PS3, but I don't think it's because the type of game has more appeal to people who are playing on the PS3. I just think there are more people who have played a PS3 game in the past two weeks. There's more people who are interested in getting a new PS3 game right now than the Wii U game. I'd be a little surprised if there was an age group for which that isn't true. Everything that would be released on the Wii U right now suffers because of that.
Maybe I'm taking it personally (← avatar) but it seems reductive.
EDIT:
Alternately, what Schuelma said.
Deep Down is f2p, and has a beta coming near the PS4's launch: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=682877
#JapaneseF2PRevolution
#JapaneseF2PRevolution
shinra-bansho
Member
There's a lot of room between expectations of "selling well" "selling poorly" and selling like these titles did.
For example no one expects Splinter Cell to sell well on the Wii U, people expect it to sell poorly yes. But 3% (?) of what's already likely a terribly low shipment is another level of poor. The same applies to the Puppeteer, it was always ultimately a niche title, but I don't think expectations were this low for it either? While the expectations for W101 on here are actually documented, in graphical form even iirc, and are much higher than comments from after it bombing would suggest.
And yes, perhaps mismatch is the wrong word - as you're right the W101 likely wouldn't have sold "well" on any platform. I did note after DaBoss pointed out it seemed a product that simply couldn't resonate with any particular audience as it tried to straddle multiple audiences. In the case of W101 it's maybe more a case of it not being a good fit for any audience. But I still think it's been thrown under the bus, in terms of prior expectations.
With the likes of the Puppeteer though, I do think it's the type of title that Sony simply haven't cultivated an audience for on the PS3. Likewise Splinter Cell with it's much better sell-through on the other platforms.
I don't agree that there hasn't been enough software released on the Wii U to determine audience and demographics within it - that it's yet to be defined. Platform holders set the tone for the platform, even prior to release. Games like Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros U set the landscape for similar titles, family-friendly titles, platformers. (Drawing a bit from sales data from other regions as well) Lego City is the most successful title outside of those two iirc. And you have games like Rayman managing to launch better on the platform. Disney Infinity has done well on it too.
Monster Hunter is probably the only example of a third party, core-oriented success on the platform thus far in any territory, and as this week shows, it's one of the biggest franchises in Japan. Frontier Online managed 120K on the moribund 360. Dragon Quest's middling success also seems more a function of the brand itself having wide appeal.
In the same regard, in the US CoD is one of the better selling titles on the Wii U (which again isn't exactly a Herculean feat) but I don't think that ultimately means the platform is highly conducive to other core titles - i.e. see Splinter Cell selling ~5K in the US on the platform. The one title that seems more of an exception is Zombi U selling reasonably well in the US, as a new IP - although that could be a function of being a majorly promoted title coinciding with launch.
The PS4 hasn't even been released yet, but it's intended audience target is quite clearly defined already.
I don't disagree that there could be some effect of sales momentum having dwindled as well, but I think that these are more additional complications to underlying issues.
For example no one expects Splinter Cell to sell well on the Wii U, people expect it to sell poorly yes. But 3% (?) of what's already likely a terribly low shipment is another level of poor. The same applies to the Puppeteer, it was always ultimately a niche title, but I don't think expectations were this low for it either? While the expectations for W101 on here are actually documented, in graphical form even iirc, and are much higher than comments from after it bombing would suggest.
And yes, perhaps mismatch is the wrong word - as you're right the W101 likely wouldn't have sold "well" on any platform. I did note after DaBoss pointed out it seemed a product that simply couldn't resonate with any particular audience as it tried to straddle multiple audiences. In the case of W101 it's maybe more a case of it not being a good fit for any audience. But I still think it's been thrown under the bus, in terms of prior expectations.
With the likes of the Puppeteer though, I do think it's the type of title that Sony simply haven't cultivated an audience for on the PS3. Likewise Splinter Cell with it's much better sell-through on the other platforms.
I don't agree that there hasn't been enough software released on the Wii U to determine audience and demographics within it - that it's yet to be defined. Platform holders set the tone for the platform, even prior to release. Games like Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros U set the landscape for similar titles, family-friendly titles, platformers. (Drawing a bit from sales data from other regions as well) Lego City is the most successful title outside of those two iirc. And you have games like Rayman managing to launch better on the platform. Disney Infinity has done well on it too.
Monster Hunter is probably the only example of a third party, core-oriented success on the platform thus far in any territory, and as this week shows, it's one of the biggest franchises in Japan. Frontier Online managed 120K on the moribund 360. Dragon Quest's middling success also seems more a function of the brand itself having wide appeal.
In the same regard, in the US CoD is one of the better selling titles on the Wii U (which again isn't exactly a Herculean feat) but I don't think that ultimately means the platform is highly conducive to other core titles - i.e. see Splinter Cell selling ~5K in the US on the platform. The one title that seems more of an exception is Zombi U selling reasonably well in the US, as a new IP - although that could be a function of being a majorly promoted title coinciding with launch.
The PS4 hasn't even been released yet, but it's intended audience target is quite clearly defined already.
I don't disagree that there could be some effect of sales momentum having dwindled as well, but I think that these are more additional complications to underlying issues.
Deep Down is f2p, and has a beta coming near the PS4's launch: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=682877
#JapaneseF2PRevolution
IMO this TGS has shown the writing on the wall pretty clearly.
shinra-bansho
Member
#JapaneseP2WRevolution will be the more apt hashtag, I'm assuming.Deep Down is f2p, and has a beta coming near the PS4's launch: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=682877
#JapaneseF2PRevolution
So on the PS4 I have a few thoughts.
First, in terms of sales, I think there are two main factors. The first is that there isn't a lot of content at launch that actually appeals to Japan. The second is that the long term announcements have made it clear that eventually, the PS4 will be a pretty great system to own if you like the kind of games that existed on PS3.
My initial feelings are that after the launch rush, this will cause the platform to sell better than the Wii U or Vita on an equivalent week basis since there is a confidence that this will ultimately turn out to be a good investment, but that it will still be decidedly less than ideal, because there's not much to play in the immediate term.
Now, if we get to June and there still aren't a lot of Japanese games announced for Fall 2014, I could totally see the bottom fall out over the Summer as confidence that the system will have a great line-up before sometime in 2015 will deteriorate quickly, and thus it makes no sense to buy it before then. If a healthy 2014 line-up appears (and I don't feel it has to be extremely healthy as there's long term faith in the system), then I would expect smoother sailing.
Now, for the second topic, I would like to address cross-gen games a bit.
I feel there has to be more nuance when discussing them than "they are on both platforms".
A game like Dynasty Warriors 8 looks exactly the same on PS4 and thus is going to convince all of about 5 people to upgrade to PS4.
With MGSV, Kojima has spent copious amounts of time saying how much better the PS4 version will be between 60 fps, better lighting, better textures, better effects, and a long list of other improvements, and when you look at the game, you could seriously think "If I don't get this on PS4, I will still get a fun game, but I'm going to be missing out on some good stuff." It may not look like the sheer insanity of Final Fantasy XV, but it still looks like a game that clearly benefits from next-gen. That kind of cross-gen game I feel is actually helpful in selling the PS4 to a fair number of people.
With Yakuza, it's harder for me to say. On the one hand, looking at the screenshots for the series and then actually playing the games gives you the impression that the art assets exist a bit above the level the PS3 can handle. On the other hand, it's clearly not a PS4-first game, and isn't going to have huge benefits from the system. It reminds me more of what you would expect with an HD remaster with effort, where it looks different and better, but the core technology and effects don't really change outside of the art asset quality. I feel how Sega decides to market this will also play a role, since if they frequently send the message "Hey this will be better on PS4, you should buy it on PS4 if you can.", that will influence people more than just treating the versions completely equally and giving the impression you're not going to miss much as a whole by not buying it on PS4.
First, in terms of sales, I think there are two main factors. The first is that there isn't a lot of content at launch that actually appeals to Japan. The second is that the long term announcements have made it clear that eventually, the PS4 will be a pretty great system to own if you like the kind of games that existed on PS3.
My initial feelings are that after the launch rush, this will cause the platform to sell better than the Wii U or Vita on an equivalent week basis since there is a confidence that this will ultimately turn out to be a good investment, but that it will still be decidedly less than ideal, because there's not much to play in the immediate term.
Now, if we get to June and there still aren't a lot of Japanese games announced for Fall 2014, I could totally see the bottom fall out over the Summer as confidence that the system will have a great line-up before sometime in 2015 will deteriorate quickly, and thus it makes no sense to buy it before then. If a healthy 2014 line-up appears (and I don't feel it has to be extremely healthy as there's long term faith in the system), then I would expect smoother sailing.
Now, for the second topic, I would like to address cross-gen games a bit.
I feel there has to be more nuance when discussing them than "they are on both platforms".
A game like Dynasty Warriors 8 looks exactly the same on PS4 and thus is going to convince all of about 5 people to upgrade to PS4.
With MGSV, Kojima has spent copious amounts of time saying how much better the PS4 version will be between 60 fps, better lighting, better textures, better effects, and a long list of other improvements, and when you look at the game, you could seriously think "If I don't get this on PS4, I will still get a fun game, but I'm going to be missing out on some good stuff." It may not look like the sheer insanity of Final Fantasy XV, but it still looks like a game that clearly benefits from next-gen. That kind of cross-gen game I feel is actually helpful in selling the PS4 to a fair number of people.
With Yakuza, it's harder for me to say. On the one hand, looking at the screenshots for the series and then actually playing the games gives you the impression that the art assets exist a bit above the level the PS3 can handle. On the other hand, it's clearly not a PS4-first game, and isn't going to have huge benefits from the system. It reminds me more of what you would expect with an HD remaster with effort, where it looks different and better, but the core technology and effects don't really change outside of the art asset quality. I feel how Sega decides to market this will also play a role, since if they frequently send the message "Hey this will be better on PS4, you should buy it on PS4 if you can.", that will influence people more than just treating the versions completely equally and giving the impression you're not going to miss much as a whole by not buying it on PS4.
1st Course
Member
The PS4 will have Cod and BF at launch too, those are not exactly niche titles.
The PS4 will have Cod and BF at launch too, those are not exactly niche titles.
Months after PS3.
The dubbed games usually don't even do big numbers.
1st Course
Member
Months after PS3.
The dubbed games usually don't even do big numbers.
Good point, looking at the wiki it seems like DW8XT PS3 ver will be out months before the PS4 ver too.
shinra-bansho
Member
There don't seem to be many examples of Japanese cross-gen games and sales from the last transition.
The only two I can find are Pro Baseball Spirits 4, which was outsold by the PS2 version by about 3x and Need for Speed: Carbon where garaph is confusing me with regard to the PS2 sales.
I'm not sure if there are PS2/360 games that can be used for inference.
There's more data available for cross-gen games for the US.
For the PS3 to the end of January 07 reporting period:
Madden NFL 07 (Electronic Arts) - 264K
Call of Duty 3 (Activision) - 164K
Need for Speed: Carbon (Electronic Arts) - 147K
Fight Night Round 3 (Electronic Arts) - 121K
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Activision) - 120K
And at 360 launch month, Madden and NFS: Most Wanted sold 178K and 108K respectively.
So there was a market there willing to fork out the considerably high price of entry for better looking ports (alongside the few high profile exclusives available like COD for 360 and Resistance). But the extent to which the Japanese market cares about better graphics is probably considerably less than the US market, and there isn't really anything exclusive to the PS4 in Japan that could drive sales is there?
The only two I can find are Pro Baseball Spirits 4, which was outsold by the PS2 version by about 3x and Need for Speed: Carbon where garaph is confusing me with regard to the PS2 sales.
I'm not sure if there are PS2/360 games that can be used for inference.
There's more data available for cross-gen games for the US.
For the PS3 to the end of January 07 reporting period:
Madden NFL 07 (Electronic Arts) - 264K
Call of Duty 3 (Activision) - 164K
Need for Speed: Carbon (Electronic Arts) - 147K
Fight Night Round 3 (Electronic Arts) - 121K
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Activision) - 120K
And at 360 launch month, Madden and NFS: Most Wanted sold 178K and 108K respectively.
So there was a market there willing to fork out the considerably high price of entry for better looking ports (alongside the few high profile exclusives available like COD for 360 and Resistance). But the extent to which the Japanese market cares about better graphics is probably considerably less than the US market, and there isn't really anything exclusive to the PS4 in Japan that could drive sales is there?
And so, PS4's after launch presents now, as one of the main 2014 (for what we know so far)...a f2p. I know Deep Down is a big project from what we've seen, between infos and screens, and it will have some retail presence (like PSO2 and MHFG), but we all know the biggest amount of sales will be through digital store, and then it can't be a significant seller for those who don't have the console.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Being F2P would be a positive for the game and the PS4 in general in Japan wouldn't it? PSO2 worked out pretty well, I'd be surprised if Deep Down doesn't have some kind of retail version as well.
I'm not sure why it being a digital title as opposed to being a retail game would prevent people from buying the system though.
I'm not sure why it being a digital title as opposed to being a retail game would prevent people from buying the system though.
I'm not sure why it being a digital title as opposed to being a retail game would prevent people from buying the system though.
Well, in general I would say that retail games leads to more retail traffic, which can easily lead to more hardware sales.
Edit- Also, digital titles seem to be more targeted at the existing userbase IMO
I feel that historically, especially in Japan, digital titles are taken less seriously on consoles.
I don't expect that to last too much longer given how games like Animal Crossing have sold digitally, but I think that mindset still exists as of today.
I consider Deep Down a possibly good, if not great title. Especially if it won't suffer from what poison too many f2p titles nowadays (especially in Japan). And it should be pretty popular among PS4 users...but I just can't consider it as a title that can give to PS4 sales such a good contribute in the post-launch now, i.e. attracting not just who already bought a PS4.
For those curious about why Square Enix is making lots of iOS Final Fantasy games:
I feel "worldwide" is a key word here.
I don't disagree with you, but if we have a notable digital game 3 years from now I think the market is going in a direction where that might no longer be true.
http://app.famitsu.com/20130921_237994/
The whole interview can be found there, but here's a little summary:
-TAY is being made for smartphones because last year's FFIV iOS version did so well worldwide they decided to give the sequel the same treatment.
-This version's being remade in full 3D, and some game balance changes are being made to make it easier to play considering all chapters will be available from the start, unlike the original version where new chapters were distributed monthly.
-Going through the game should take about 50 hours.
-Regarding the price of this version, Tokita says that something around what FFIV's current smartphone version seems fair.
...
-As closing comments, Tokita comments how FFIII, FFIV and FFV's smartphone ports have had worldwide success and he hopes people who haven't played those titles along with TAY, specially the ones overseas, give the titles a chance in these new releases.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=683165
I feel "worldwide" is a key word here.
I consider Deep Down a possibly good, if not great title. Especially if it won't suffer from what poison too many f2p titles nowadays (especially in Japan). And it should be pretty popular among PS4 users...but I just can't consider it as a title that can give to PS4 sales such a good contribute in the post-launch now, i.e. attracting not just who already bought a PS4.
I don't disagree with you, but if we have a notable digital game 3 years from now I think the market is going in a direction where that might no longer be true.
bigmit3737
Member
How do you guys think the new kiseki game will sell? What are the expextations?
I don't expect vita to huge sellers like Pokemon and MonHon, but it really needs a lot more smaller titles that will sell 200-300k.
Ff10x that will sell about 200k on the vita no?
I expect god eater to reach 200,000. But what is left this year?
I'm afraid of the vita becoming irrelavant.
I'm also a little shocked we aren't getting many new RPGs for the 3 DS
I don't expect vita to huge sellers like Pokemon and MonHon, but it really needs a lot more smaller titles that will sell 200-300k.
Ff10x that will sell about 200k on the vita no?
I expect god eater to reach 200,000. But what is left this year?
I'm afraid of the vita becoming irrelavant.
I'm also a little shocked we aren't getting many new RPGs for the 3 DS
Oh and an additional note from Tokita:
-Along with TAY's smartphone version, Tokita is working on two other titles. One is all new and should be announced early next year, while the other should be announced at next year's TGS.
This implies the on at next year's TGS is another remake.
-Along with TAY's smartphone version, Tokita is working on two other titles. One is all new and should be announced early next year, while the other should be announced at next year's TGS.
This implies the on at next year's TGS is another remake.
AranhaHunter
Banned
Fairly broad generalizations about ios/android. The thing to remember is that that market is still rapidly evolving. I mean, iOS just got controller support.
Add to that the fact that the hardware inside these devices is top notch, with a very rapid turn over, and there could be some really spectacular phone games. Not every game going forward is going to be touch based and riddled with IAP. Imagine the sales of monster hunter 5 if it was available on iOS and Android, plus zero used game resales.
I'm really curious to see where this goes and how nintendo will respond.
A little OT, but I'm personally very interested in this and want to see how it pans out. Android has had gamepad support since honeycomb, but not a whole lot of games use it and there's not an official push/accessory from google. Hopefully Apple will push it, their marketing will get the masses interested and an official gamepad from apple will be very well designed. I personally want more games using the gamepad and maybe now with iOS7 supporting it, we'll get more and bigger games, I want games like Dragon Quests, Gears of War, GTAs, etc. I have an iphone5 for work that I can download personal stuff to and I will get a moto x or xperia phone for personal use by black friday. I consider myself a hardcore gamer and at one point or another I had a number of different handhelds (GB, GBA, DS, PSP, PSV). I am selling the vita by the end of the year and that will be that for me, no more dedicated handhelds ever. If they release a game that's exclusive to vita that I must play, I'll just get a vita tv. If that happens for the 3DS, I think I'll just suck it up, unless Nintendo releases a DSTV.
How do you guys think the new kiseki game will sell? What are the expextations?
I don't expect vita to huge sellers like Pokemon and MonHon, but it really needs a lot more smaller titles that will sell 200-300k.
Ff10x that will sell about 200k on the vita no?
I expect god eater to reach 200,000. But what is left this year?
I'm afraid of the vita becoming irrelavant.
I'm also a little shocked we aren't getting many new RPGs for the 3 DS
Toukiden has already done that and it was a brand new IP, I would expect more from an established popular IP. Toukiden was also PSP/Vita title.
Since we're still getting a few announcements I might wait on the giant TGS window announcement list until tomorrow.
Did we have one of these last year or the year before too? I think it'd be neat to see if things really have gotten drastically more mobile-heavy or if it just feels that way.
How do you guys think the new kiseki game will sell? What are the expextations?
I don't expect vita to huge sellers like Pokemon and MonHon, but it really needs a lot more smaller titles that will sell 200-300k.
Ff10x that will sell about 200k on the vita no?
I expect god eater to reach 200,000. But what is left this year?
I'm afraid of the vita becoming irrelavant.
I'm also a little shocked we aren't getting many new RPGs for the 3 DS
If God Eater sells 20K, perhaps even 40K, the series won't be on the Vita anymore. I think many of us would be pretty surprised if that happens.
As for the Vita being irrelevant, it's important to have a clear idea of what you're actually talking about. Will Vita stop having software completely? No.
Publishers want to make games that generate profit. Games that are targeted to the audience that is currently on the Vita, the same groups as current Vita games, can still be successful. They might be more successful than they would be on 3DS, they might have a franchise that has only existed on Sony systems,
If you mean irrelevant as in not having mainstream popularity, well, Phantasy Star and God Eater might be the biggest things the system will get.
I'm also a little shocked we aren't getting many new RPGs for the 3 DS
Everyone is experimenting with RPGs on mobile devices now lol
Aquamarine
Member
At the end it seems is Dengeki who overtracks, if we take MC numbers together (without eshop):
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 1,715,060
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 [Download Card] - 155,000
Total - 1,870,000
Famitsu:
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 1,875,115
Both agree. So it's Dengeki the different one.
Now that we have more data, it certainly looks that way.
I wonder if just this once, Dengeki decided to track download cards...it's the only explanation I could have for such a large discrepancy besides Dengeki over-tracking.
does anyone know how Pre orders are going for Vita TV or a site that keeps track of them ?
Also Have pre orders already started in Japan for PS4 ?
There are retailer blogs that comment on shipments as they get close to launch, but unless Sony says something about preorders, I don't think we'll get any hard numbers.
Amazon.co.jp has preorder rankings though.
I believe Japanese retailers will begin taking PS4 preorders on Saturday, October 5th.
bigmit3737
Member
If God Eater sells 20K, perhaps even 40K, the series won't be on the Vita anymore. I think many of us would be pretty surprised if that happens.
As for the Vita being irrelevant, it's important to have a clear idea of what you're actually talking about. Will Vita stop having software completely? No.
Publishers want to make games that generate profit. Games that are targeted to the audience that is currently on the Vita, the same groups as current Vita games, can still be successful. They might be more successful than they would be on 3DS, they might have a franchise that has only existed on Sony systems,
If you mean irrelevant as in not having mainstream popularity, well, Phantasy Star and God Eater might be the biggest things the system will get.
The thought of Phantasy Star and God Earer being the biggest things are a little worrying, personally speaking.
I'm hoping for more ports of PS3 games Catherine , Niño Kuni, tales of... Etc.
I'm also finding the lack of tactical games on the Vita and 3da a little worrying. I know of Fire Emblem and the Disgaea ports, but is that it? Is this genre not popular enough anymore?
Being F2P would be a positive for the game and the PS4 in general in Japan wouldn't it? PSO2 worked out pretty well, I'd be surprised if Deep Down doesn't have some kind of retail version as well.
I'm not sure why it being a digital title as opposed to being a retail game would prevent people from buying the system though.
when was the last time you or someone you know buy a new system because of a F2P game? And PSO2 didn't work well for pushing VITA hardware...
EDIT:
On TGS - is it just me or TGS this year feels underwhelmed for everyone too?
DarkLordMalik
Member
It's not only you. Gravity Rush 2 was the only decent announcement out of TGS. The rest sucked pretty much. Deep Down looked promising but hearing that it will be F2P was another disappointment.On TGS - is it just me or TGS this year feels underwhelmed for everyone too?
KillerTravis
Banned
Fantasy Life is apparently getting another big update, this time it's free.
http://www.siliconera.com/2013/09/21/fantasy-life-link-wins-japanese-excellence-award-receiving-large-free-update/
http://www.siliconera.com/2013/09/21/fantasy-life-link-wins-japanese-excellence-award-receiving-large-free-update/
when was the last time you or someone you know buy a new system because of a F2P game? And PSO2 didn't work well for pushing VITA hardware...
EDIT:
On TGS - is it just me or TGS this year feels underwhelmed for everyone too?
TGS has been underwhelming for the past few years.
Glass Rebel
Member
The thought of Phantasy Star and God Earer being the biggest things are a little worrying, personally speaking.
Phantasy Star Portable was the 11th best selling PSP game, 6th best if you ignore the Monster Hunter franchise.