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[Man God]

It would have to do at least 600K in the West in the first 6 months to match Bravely Default there, which seems like a huge ask at that price point.

Then Japan needs 400K as well to keep the game on par overall, otherwise you need even more in the West.


I suspect that was potentially limiting there too, but I still think it compares more favorably to its platform and standards.

Aren’t consoles games often in the 8000s in Japan?

If Octopath can launch before DQ XI/Tales of/whatever in NA and gets the same attention as BD:FF did it could easily do as well or better on Switch. While starving for games is a meme at this point there is a certain truth to it when it comes to being early enough to niche genres, early JRPGs can do really well if they show up at the right time.

 

[MoonFrog]

Tbh, the Tokyo RPG Factory initiative is one I want to be excited about but at the end of the day I remain unconvinced about (purchasing) Setsuna and I'm guessing I'll have the same issue with Lost Sphear.

I want Square to re-invest in old school JRPG and for them to put out good content. I don't care about high end production values, but I want inspired gameplay, characters, settings, and scenarios.

I'm really excited about Octopath, so that's good movement from them after Bravely left me cold on an aesthetic/character/story/world level.

Tokyo RPG Factory though...again I just want to be excited but am not.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Nintendo blurred the line between console and handheld, now square enix bluring the line between handheld game prices and console game prices lol.

 

[Nirolak]

I think it could hit that in the west depending on certain factors, such as release timing and product quality. A lot of it comes down to what else is coming to Switch in late 2018, there probably still won't be a lot of competition and it's already getting a decent push from Nintendo.

I definitely don't see it getting anywhere close to 400k in Japan though.

I feel a lot of the target audience for that also owns other platforms though, and they will be getting the usual collection of Fall games and Fall Japanese games, plus whatever Nintendo is releasing on Switch around then like Fire Emblem.

Dragon Quest XI and Kingdom Hearts 3 are plausibly releasing next to it too.

It’s not even an impossible window for SMT and whatever platforms are getting Persona 5R.

 

[Aters]

How do you want them to react tho? Give Tokyo RPG Factory more budget; let them work on games with different styles/settings; or shut the studio?

They have not proved they deserve big budget. I'd shut it down. Pretty sure SE's other teams can use some extra help.

 

[Oregano]

I feel a lot of the target audience for that also owns other platforms though, and they will be getting the usual collection of Fall games and Fall Japanese games, plus whatever Nintendo is releasing on Switch around then like Fire Emblem.

Dragon Quest XI and Kingdom Hearts 3 are plausibly releasing next to it too.

Are you really sure that's plausible?

I think Nintendo will give Octopath and Fire Emblem enough space. Bravely Second still sold ~500k in the west despite releasing relatively close to Fire Emblem Fates.

 

[Nirolak]

Are you really sure that's plausible?

I think Nintendo will give Octopath and Fire Emblem enough space. Bravely Second still sold ~500k in the west despite releasing relatively close to Fire Emblem Fates.

That game went on sale for $20 very frequently and pretty early though.

I mean yes, if Octopath releases in May and has $30 sales throughout the Holiday season, that’s way more plausible, but that suggests the initial pricing might have been too much.

Like Doom did well, but largely on cutting the price to $30 or less around 1-2 months post launch, and that actually looked like a $60 game. I’m just skeptical the landscape looks so favorable a year from now to favor Octopath at full price.

 

[whyamihere]

Tbh, the Tokyo RPG Factory initiative is one I want to be excited about but at the end of the day I remain unconvinced about (purchasing) Setsuna and I'm guessing I'll have the same issue with Lost Sphear.

I want Square to re-invest in old school JRPG and for them to put out good content. I don't care about high end production values, but I want inspired gameplay, characters, settings, and scenarios.

I'm really excited about Octopath, so that's good movement from them after Bravely left me cold on an aesthetic/character/story/world level.

Tokyo RPG Factory though...again I just want to be excited but am not.

This is where I am with them. I want to be excited, but I really am not.

 

[test_account]

According to Wikipedia:

I think there was the fear of not selling as well as the previous entry, though. Luckily, IV sold extremely well.

I see. Maybe that was very early on in the production? Wikipedia also says that they decided to make IV after Strange Journey because fans asked for it.

No, they have a rule that the game must take place in Tokyo in order to be a numbered entry. SJ takes place in Antarctica.

I see.

Honestly, not sure what we're discussing. You seem to share my exact, or close enough, mindset.

You said that you wasnt sure what to make of the recent COMG points in regards to MHW. I'm just saying that i think its early to tell and that lower numbers should be expected than the other MH games that you mentioned had much higher points. I got the impression that you thought the number for MHW was something out of the ordinary.

https://kotaku.com/5478831/metal-gear-solid-peace-walker-was-originally-mgs5

Sure, that i know, but i'm wondering if MGS 5 (The Phantom Pain) was named MGS 5 due to how Peace Waker sold. If Peace Walker sold better, would The Phantom Pain not be numbered as 5?

 

[mao2]

I suspect that was potentially limiting there too, but I still think it compares more favorably to its platform and standards.

Aren’t consoles games often near or in the 8000s in Japan? There’s at least a distinction between that.

I agree, graphically Bravely Default does indeed look better. And yes, console RPGs typically cost around 8,000yen, and over 9,000yen for Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest.

 

[Chris1964]

Sure, that i know, but i'm wondering if MGS 5 (The Phantom Pain) was named MGS 5 due to how Peace Waker sold. If Peace Walker sold better, would The Phantom Pain not be numbered as 5?

It's very obvious 5 was removed from Peace Walker title when Konami saw the game bombing outside Japan was inevitable.

 

[Oregano]

That game went on sale for $20 very frequently and pretty early though.

I mean yes, if Octopath releases in May and has $30 sales throughout the Holiday season, that’s way more plausible, but that suggests the initial pricing might have been too much.

Like Doom did well, but largely on cutting the price to $30 or less around 1-2 months post launch, and that actually looked like a $60 game. I’m just skeptical the landscape looks so favorable a year from now to favor Octopath at full price.

Fair points.

I might be putting too much stock in the fact that there will still be a relative lack of retail releases on Switch and it's getting positive reception and a good push from Nintendo. We'll see.

 

[test_account]

It's very obvious 5 was removed from Peace Walker title when Konami saw the game bombing outside Japan was inevitable.

Nah, its not that obvious, otherwise we wouldnt have this conversation. Did the PSP only start doing bad in the west around 2009?

 

[fortunato]

Lost Sphear is Square Enix trying to sell a mid-tier 3D 3DS game as a nigh full price game on current gen platforms.

It's honestly insane, but this should hopefully be a wake up call for them.

I don't think the problem is the fact that it's a mid-tier 3D 3DS game at close to full price.

The problem is that Lost Sphear totally looks like a generic, bland and uninspired jRPG. There exist low-budget jRPGs that sells/sold well on home consoles. Lost Sphear doesn't have anything that stands out. You might think it's another indie RPG on Steam. I am Setsuna, for example, was set in a snowy environment---this was enough to create an image that gamers could match/assign to the game. Bravely Default had drawn-like backgrounds and Yoshida artstyle. Octopath Traveler uses an innovative graphics.

A rough estimate for Lost Sphear's FW would be to halve I Am Setsuna's FW (~60k / 2 = ~30k), but it seems like they won't even reach that. Lost Sphear lacks a Vita version, and I don't see the Switch make up for that loss. Very meager what Tokyo RPG Factory have produced so far, at least in terms of sales (I'm not a fan of Setsuna, but that's personal preference of course). I guess the production value of their games also is very low.

I don't think a PSV version would have had better chances. At least, Switch could rely on gamers hungry for jRPGs in the West.

Context is always fundamental to understand what sales figures might indicate.
In the Famicom era there were certainly less videogames compared to nowadays and more importantly less competition for digital entertainment.
Early Famicom games were surely helped by being released in the first few years when there was small quantity of games available for the system (fun fact: on Famicom in 1983 there were available only first-party games and in 1984 first-party games were still the majority of the releases that year) but eventually about 1000 games were produced for the console.
Dragon Ball was the golden boy of the golden age of Shonen Jump so it isn't surprising that the tie in sold very well.
Metroid was one of the first defining game for the Famicom Disk System.

Right. Some games were selling amazingly back then that it might seem weird today.

 

[dracula_x]

It's very obvious 5 was removed from Peace Walker title when Konami saw the game bombing outside Japan was inevitable.

It bombed outside Japan not because of name, it bombed because it was on portable system.

 

[Aters]

That game went on sale for $20 very frequently and pretty early though.

I mean yes, if Octopath releases in May and has $30 sales throughout the Holiday season, that’s way more plausible, but that suggests the initial pricing might have been too much.

Like Doom did well, but largely on cutting the price to $30 or less around 1-2 months post launch, and that actually looked like a $60 game. I’m just skeptical the landscape looks so favorable a year from now to favor Octopath at full price.

If they are smart enough, they'd price it at $40. SE is never smart at pricing though.

 

[Chris1964]

Nah, its not that obvious, otherwise we wouldnt have this conversation. Did the PSP only start doing bad in the west around 2009?

No, it's very obvious but at least Konami was in position to see that expectations from when greenlighting the project and reality could be very far.

 

[TheLegendaryN]

I don't think a PSV version would have had better chances. At least, Switch could rely on gamers hungry for jRPGs in the West.

I meant alongside PS4/NS, not instead of NS.
But like you said, it'll be just a mediocre product. It doesn't really matter.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

The only thing i can think of is that SE has data on how many people these old school jrpgs will sell to, and they believe that dropping the price wont get them the extra sales they need to make up for the price drop.

But at the same time, pricing octopath the same as FFXV and KH3 is pretty crazy.

 

[test_account]

No, it's very obvious but at least Konami was in position to see that expectations from when greenlighting the project and reality could be very far.

I agree that its possible this was the case, but i disagree that its so obvious as you mention. The PSP didnt suddently start doing bad in the west around 2009, so they wouldnt need to name it MGS5 at first, then remove it. The teaser is from May 2009 where it was named MGS5: Peace Walker. But regardless, it is possible that they were afraid that Peace Walker wouldnt sell that well and therefor it could look worse for share holders if it was named MGS 5, i agree to that. But its anyone's guess.

 

[Oregano]

The only thing i can think of is that SE has data on how many people these old school jrpgs will sell to, and they believe that dropping the price wont get them the extra sales they need to make up for the price drop.

But at the same time, pricing octopath the same as FFXV and KH3 is pretty crazy.

Octopath is probably not going to have a season pass.

Spoiler

..and will probably be a better game.

 

[Vena]

You said that you wasnt sure what to make of the recent COMG points in regards to MHW. I'm just saying that i think its early to tell and that lower numbers should be expected than the other MH games that you mentioned had much higher points. I got the impression that you thought the number for MHW was something out of the ordinary.

Look a few posts later to what Silph posted, largely I thought the "core" would last longer. But silph was right in that we've probably exhausted it and the behavior now explains that perfectly.

 

[Lonely1]

I feel a lot of the target audience for that also owns other platforms though, and they will be getting the usual collection of Fall games and Fall Japanese games, plus whatever Nintendo is releasing on Switch around then like Fire Emblem.

Dragon Quest XI and Kingdom Hearts 3 are plausibly releasing next to it too.

It's not even an impossible window for SMT and whatever platforms are getting Persona 5R.

I have to ask. Is Persona 5R something that has been announced, rumored, expected or hoped for?

 

[Eolz]

Bravely cost $10 less than Lost Sphear does and that game was either high end or at least upper mid-tier by 3DS standards.

If Octopath is $60 I think it will actually not sell nearly as well as Bravely Default did.

Maybe.
As Oregano said, there's good arguments for it to sell well (maybe not in japan but not much does there nowadays).
I think it'll end up in-between Default and Second worldwide in 6 months, it got a demo, an appealing artstyle for older gamers, and probably will get some nice marketing from Nintendo.

 

[Oregano]

I have to ask. Is Persona 5R something that has been announced, rumored, expected or hopped?

I believe there was a URL registered for it(?).

It's likely just a PS4 rerelease though.

 

[Nirolak]

I believe there was a URL registered for it(?).

It's likely just a PS4 rerelease though.

Yes, at the same time as the domains for Persona Q2 and the new dancing games, which were revealed shortly after.

 

[Nanashrew]

I need to look over documentation but I am curious why UE 4.13 to 4.15 would cause such problems. What logic has changed to cause this hiccup.

4.15 is the update of UE that offers native compatibility with Switch. Definitely one good reason to upgrade, though I imagine there are a lot of changes that could have broken some things. I was checking some stuff out and it seems some have issues with post effects and tone mapping upgrading from 4.13 to 4.15/.4.16 https://forums.unrealengine.com/dev...134-huge-map-difference-between-4-13-and-4-16

 

[test_account]

Look a few posts later to what Silph posted, largely I thought the "core" would last longer. But silph was right in that we've probably exhausted it and the behavior now explains that perfectly.

I understand, fair enough. Thats possible, i agree. Thats why i think its too early to make much of it. The numbers will get higher closer to lauch.

 

[Vena]

I understand, fair enough. Thats possible, i agree. Thats why i think its too early to make much of it. The numbers will get higher closer to lauch.

Well I mean, of course they will.

 

[Eolz]

4.13/4.15 might just be the version from which they branched out for their custom changes.
I wouldn't read too much into it, might just be a temporary pain of bringing those changes in 4.15, but I doubt it'd take them a long time to do that, unless their team is ridiculously small.

 

[foxuzamaki]

If Octopath can launch before DQ XI/Tales of/whatever in NA and gets the same attention as BD:FF did it could easily do as well or better on Switch. While starving for games is a meme at this point there is a certain truth to it when it comes to being early enough to niche genres, early JRPGs can do really well if they show up at the right time.

Which is why I have high hopes for xenoblade 2

 

[test_account]

Well I mean, of course they will.

Sure, i just mean in relation to not reading too much into it or be worried now. If maybe ~1.5 million LTD is expected, 135 points at this point doesnt seem alarming or anything like that

 

[Fukuzatsu]

It would have to do at least 600K in the West in the first 6 months to match Bravely Default there, which seems like a huge ask at that price point.

Then Japan needs 400K as well to keep the game on par overall, otherwise you need even more in the West.


I suspect that was potentially limiting there too, but I still think it compares more favorably to its platform and standards.

Aren't consoles games often near or in the 8000s in Japan? There's at least a distinction between that.

Posted about this on an earlier page, but the value of what would otherwise be 'full-price' $60 games in the US is somewhat inconsistent in Japan.
A few examples that I was looking at (non-sale price on PSN as of right now):
FIFA 18 Standard Edition - ¥8,424
Trails of Cold Steel III - ¥7,200
NBA 2K18 - ¥6,804
F1 2017 - ¥7,668
Raiden V: Director's Cut - ¥7,344
Destiny 2 - ¥8,532

I'd be inclined to say it's usually closer to ~7,500 on average but it's all over the place.

I feel a lot of the target audience for that also owns other platforms though, and they will be getting the usual collection of Fall games and Fall Japanese games, plus whatever Nintendo is releasing on Switch around then like Fire Emblem.

Dragon Quest XI and Kingdom Hearts 3 are plausibly releasing next to it too.

It's not even an impossible window for SMT and whatever platforms are getting Persona 5R.

I think you may be being a little bullish on ports for Switch. Aside from the potential (or non-potential) for KH3, a P5 remake/port would be a big divergence for a series which, even when it didn't necessarily make sense, has fervently stuck to Playstation platforms. The only exceptions to this has been a crossover with Etrian Odyssey (a 3DS title) and the original Persona being released on PC in the 90s. The SMT HD project getting a release on Switch is going to happen, but there's no sense in making sales assumptions about things that aren't even rumoured yet.

 

[Oregano]

Posted about this on an earlier page, but the value of what would otherwise be 'full-price' $60 games in the US is somewhat inconsistent in Japan.
A few examples that I was looking at (non-sale price on PSN as of right now):
FIFA 18 Standard Edition - ¥8,424
Trails of Cold Steel III - ¥7,200
NBA 2K18 - ¥6,804
F1 2017 - ¥7,668
Raiden V: Director's Cut - ¥7,344
Destiny 2 - ¥8,532

I'd be inclined to say it's usually closer to ~7,500 on average but it's all over the place.



I think you may be being a little bullish on ports for Switch. Aside from the potential (or non-potential) for KH3, a P5 remake/port would be a big divergence for a series which, even when it didn't necessarily make sense, has fervently stuck to Playstation platforms. The only exceptions to this has been a crossover with Etrian Odyssey (a 3DS title) and the original Persona being released on PC in the 90s. The SMT HD project getting a release on Switch is going to happen, but there's no sense in making sales assumptions about things that aren't even rumoured yet.

Nirolak wasn't talking about Switch versions.

 

[Ōkami]

1. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga + Bowser’s Minions - 62
2. [PS4] Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen - 27
3. [3DS] Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology - 21
4. [PS4] Sniper Ghost Warriors 3 - 18
5. [SWI] Splatoon 2 - 14
6. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 14
7. [SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 13
8. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 11
9. [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III - 10
10. [SWI] Pokken Tournament DX - 9
11. [PS4] Fallout 4: Game of the Year Edition - 9
12. [PSV] Tokyo Clanpool - 8
13. [PSV] Tokyo Clanpool (Limited Edition) - 8
14. [PS4] FIFA 18 - 8
15. [PS4] Coven and Labyrinth of Refrain - 7
16. [PS4] Genkai Tokki: Castle Panzers - 6
17. [SWI] 1-2-Switch - 6
18. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6
19. [SWI] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 6
20. [3DS] Hey! Pikmin - 6

Preorders
[3DS] Pokemon UltraSun / UltraMoon - 427
[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 144
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 132
[SWI] Super Mario Odyssey - 101
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux - 50
[PS4] Call of Duty: WWII - 50
[PS4] Yakuza Kiwami 2 - 44
[PS4] .hack//G.U. Last Recode - 39
[PS4] The Evil Within 2 - 35
[PS4] Ark: Survival Evolved - 31
[PS4] City Shrouded in Shadow - 29
[PS4] Assassin's Creed: Origins - 22
[PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX - 21
[PS4] Fortune Street: Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy 30th Anniversary - 15
[PS4] Star Wars: Battefront II - 15

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Nirolak wasn't talking about Switch versions.

Ah, my mistake then. I just assumed that from the DQXI on Switch discussion.

 

[Hero of Legend]

[SWI] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 6

Thankfully it seems that the deluxe edition announcement for PS4 didn't scare folks away from the Switch version, since it only went down by two points from 8 last week.

 

[Vena]

FEW is gone, lol.

 

[frankie_baby]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

 

[AdventureRacing]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

Probably the same place as switch HW. If switch sales tank this weak SW sales will go with it and fire emblem will be impacted more than the long selling titles IMO.

 

[Eolz]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

In hibernation until DLC comes out.
edit: more seriously, it'll be "fun" to compare it to HW both in japan and the west.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

Long time passin'?

 

[ggx2ac]

Just noticed this, it probably doesn't mean much.

https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/916237128513802240

why would @Nintendo trademark an image of the Gameboy? https://t.co/3auHIG4CBx

https://twitter.com/trademark_bot/status/916200366676631553

[商願2017-123766]
商標:[画像] /
出願人:任天堂株式会社 /
出願日:2017年9月15日 /
区分:9(家庭用テレビゲーム機用プログラムほ&#12363,14(キーホルダーほ&#12363,18(かばん金具ほ&#12363,21(化粧用具ほ&#12363,25(被服ほ&#12363,28(家庭用テレビゲーム… https://t.co/noRhof6vF1

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

Rabbids Land?

 

[Graphics Horse]

Just noticed this, it probably doesn't mean much.

Could they be entering the crowded mobile Game Boy emulator market?

 

[Nyoro SF]

Just noticed this, it probably doesn't mean much.

https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/916237128513802240



https://twitter.com/trademark_bot/status/916200366676631553

Maybe a Gameboy Classic.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Where has fire emblem warriors gone?

bomba bins

 

[James Scott]

Lost Sphear is Square Enix trying to sell a mid-tier 3D 3DS game as a nigh full price game on current gen platforms.

It’s honestly insane, but this should hopefully be a wake up call for them.

Honestly seems lower effort than BD on 3DS. Was weird that they created the studio to make BD-likes when they were already working with the people making Bd

 

[Ex-Psych]

Just noticed this, it probably doesn't mean much.

https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/916237128513802240



https://twitter.com/trademark_bot/status/916200366676631553

Yeah was going to make a thread about that, but didn't want to hype up something that may not happen.

Could simply just be a trademark refresh.

 

[schuelma]

bomba bins

lol