Support NeoGAF

[AZ2002]

You're merely trying to be objective, but also making bold claims about having high hopes for Vita to take off without any real reason and suddenly push 3DS into borderline irrelevance?

I'm not sure I get where you're coming from.

you guys really took this like an attack on the 3DS .the Wii faced the same situation with 3rd parties was it less successful because of it?.i like the Vita even though i am a mainly console gamer but i see why the guys here and outside excited for it it gives them console gaming on the go.which is what the japanese public want as the market there shift to portables and whether consoles will stay relevant is interesting for the observer.but whether this transfer to the west beyond this generation remains to be seen.as i think the smartphones will prevail i hope not though.

 

[Metallix87]

you guys really took this like an attack on the 3DS .the Wii faced the same situation with 3rd parties was it less successful because of it?

Apples and oranges, pal. The issue with the Wii was that no one expected it to take off like it did, and third parties had already put all of their money into HD development.

The 3DS is in a whole different situation, and isn't at all comparable.

 

[Takao]

There's a complete fan-translation FWIW.

I did not know that. If Scamco USA passes up on Innocence R I may look over eBay, or YJA for a cheap copy, though I'd need one of those 3DS flashcarts as well.

 

[Kazerei]

you guys really took this like an attack on the 3DS .the Wii faced the same situation with 3rd parties was it less successful because of it?.i like the Vita even though i am a mainly console gamer but i see why the guys here and outside excited for it it gives them console gaming on the go.which is what the japanese public want as the market there shift to portables and whether consoles will stay relevant is interesting for the observer.but whether this transfer to the west beyond this generation remains to be seen.as i think the smartphones will prevail i hope not though.

3DS third party support is waaaay better than Wii third party support. You're being silly.

 

[AZ2002]

I think Chris explained the decline pretty nicely.

Anyways, going back to your original point. Overall I'd say 3DS and Vita is looking to be the same story as DS and PSP. Sure, 3DS software sales are lower than DS sales, but Vita hardware/software sales are lower than PSP as well.

Now you still haven't given a good reason why third parties are going to support Vita better than the 3DS. That's just wishful thinking.

i am not sure there were the price drop with the big three franchises that pushed the hard/soft ware to reach even these low numbers.i think the market really has shrinked and i am not sure about the future of next gen portables.in japan yes but what about the rest of the world.and what if the situation arises that the portables are the way to go in japan but not the west and how will this affect the release of next gen portables.

about third parties sales absolutely are one reason.another one is that the market in japan is shifting toward portables,and the japanese gamers want console graphics on the go and next gen console development will be even more expensive and more japanese developer will prefer a system thats easy to develop for and give them the chance to release on PS360 or PSN/XBL.thats my theory and whether its proven or not its up to debate

 

[Chris1964]

AZ must be the next Media Create honorable poster after farnham and Burntbork.

 

[Mpl90]

AZ must bee the next Media Create honorable poster after farnham and Burntbork.

I hope he doesn't bring another silly rule for judging software as LanceStern did. At least.

 

[pharmboy044]

I know it's a little early but what are the expectations of Ragnarok Odyssey?
It being a so-called Monster Hunter clone, does it have any chance of selling around 100k in it's first week?

 

[Brazil]

I know it's a little early but what are the expectations of Ragnarok Odyssey?
It being a so-called Monster Hunter clone, does it have any chance of selling around 100k in it's first week?

None whatsoever.

Considering the 2011 PSP game's launch numbers, I'd say 30~40k would be a pretty impressive performance.

 

[oldie-newbie]

This is probably true. After all you can buy Vita games on PSN even without a Vita, so there's no reason why tons of people didn't accidentally buy it without realizing that it's a Vita game. In fact, because of their mistake, we might see the Vita hardware sales surge next week to 300k or more simply because people are picking it up to play the million selling Tales game they accidentally bought on PSN.

Makes perfect sense.

Yes very true. And why nobody talks about all virtual VITA sold on PSN each week ?

If you add VITA hardware (sold on physical stores) + VITA virtual (sold on PSN), the number is very impressive and much more than the little +80k 3DS sold each week !!!

 

[Chris1964]

I know it's a little early but what are the expectations of Ragnarok Odyssey?
It being a so-called Monster Hunter clone, does it have any chance of selling around 100k in it's first week?

100k first week?

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

I know it's a little early but what are the expectations of Ragnarok Odyssey?
It being a so-called Monster Hunter clone, does it have any chance of selling around 100k in it's first week?

If vita sales continue to be sluggish, I'd say 50k week 1, tops.

 

[pharmboy044]

lol, thanks guys. I guess I was being overly optimistic with those first week numbers.

 

[Takao]

I know it's a little early but what are the expectations of Ragnarok Odyssey?
It being a so-called Monster Hunter clone, does it have any chance of selling around 100k in it's first week?

That would mean everyone who downloaded the demo would buy the game, lol.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Do we have updated numbers for Marvel Vita? (Famitsu)

EDIT: LOL. Nevermind.

 

[kiri]

Some good figures for ACV and Resident Evil.

RE is getting a strong push in the shops in my local area, should have legs I think.

 

[Orgen]

I've been missing a lot it seems: Comgnet almost dead, new people with crazy opinions and duckroll putting people on their place... if only you were this active when the megalong M-C threads happened haha

LTTP but I like the Comgnet format option (disclaimer, maybe a top10 for next launches) when a big hit is coming or every week, as you wish. And the blog retailers when a trend can be seen and discussed.

ToI is a fun but limited game IMO. As it's been said before it has new elements and the original sold quite well so I'm not sure we can say it's a lazy remake and if Namco is happy with this numbers (I haven't played ToIR and I don't know if Namco made an statement regarding their expectations for the game).

Now if I made anything better than last place at the prediction game I can sleep happy haha

 

[Takao]

My lazy remake comment came from the poor visuals, and the falling back on the "full voice acting" promise. Some skits remain unvoiced in the final version.

 

[Kazerei]

i am not sure there were the price drop with the big three franchises that pushed the hard/soft ware to reach even these low numbers.i think the market really has shrinked and i am not sure about the future of next gen portables.in japan yes but what about the rest of the world.and what if the situation arises that the portables are the way to go in japan but not the west and how will this affect the release of next gen portables.

about third parties sales absolutely are one reason.another one is that the market in japan is shifting toward portables,and the japanese gamers want console graphics on the go and next gen console development will be even more expensive and more japanese developer will prefer a system thats easy to develop for and give them the chance to release on PS360 or PSN/XBL.thats my theory and whether its proven or not its up to debate

Wow, if you think those 3DS hardware/software are low numbers, I'd hate to hear what you think of the other platforms.

And that's a nice theory, but the idea that gamers want "console graphics on the go" doesn't seem to be true at all, and the 3DS is probably an easier/cheaper system to develop for.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

I'd hate to hear what you think of the other platforms.

Momentum!

 

[BishopLamont]

okay lets make it simple you say that the 3DS is following footsteps of the NDS lets check the difference in software sale for both as Nintendo thought the same like you guys which is reflected in their forcast ( Nintendo lowered its 3DS software sales forecasts from 62 million to 38 million units ):

NDS first year 2005/06 software sales: 50 million unit.

3DS first year 2011/12 software sales: 28 million unit.

Most of the 3DS hardware sold was near the end of the year, as a result there wasn't really enough time for alot of software to be sold, not to mention alot of software was pushed backed. Comes down to the price being high and no high profile games released to drive the hardware for most of the year. Early adopters know their shit, they'll either be playing DS games or high profile games, and they didn't really come out til the end of the year, OOT, Layton and SSFIV could only sell so much.

you guys really took this like an attack on the 3DS .the Wii faced the same situation with 3rd parties was it less successful because of it?.i like the Vita even though i am a mainly console gamer but i see why the guys here and outside excited for it it gives them console gaming on the go.which is what the japanese public want as the market there shift to portables and whether consoles will stay relevant is interesting for the observer.but whether this transfer to the west beyond this generation remains to be seen.as i think the smartphones will prevail i hope not though.

Whats console graphics? Wii? PS3? Wouldn't the Vita be dominating if PS3 graphics was the standard the Japanese wanted?

 

[The Boat]

one is that the market in japan is shifting toward portables,and the japanese gamers want console graphics on the go

If this were the case, or rather if the reasons behind that shift were so linear, they wouldn't have moved to handhelds long ago.

 

[mclem]

you guys really took this like an attack on the 3DS .the Wii faced the same situation with 3rd parties was it less successful because of it?.

Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to compare with the DS? I'm looking just right of my monitor and I'm seeing quite a nice pile of mostly third-party DS games. The Wii would be in a very different position if it'd had even *half* the collection stacked up over there.

 

[JJConrad]

i am not sure there were the price drop with the big three franchises that pushed the hard/soft ware to reach even these low numbers.i think the market really has shrinked and i am not sure about the future of next gen portables.in japan yes but what about the rest of the world.and what if the situation arises that the portables are the way to go in japan but not the west and how will this affect the release of next gen portables.

about third parties sales absolutely are one reason.another one is that the market in japan is shifting toward portables,and the japanese gamers want console graphics on the go and next gen console development will be even more expensive and more japanese developer will prefer a system thats easy to develop for and give them the chance to release on PS360 or PSN/XBL.thats my theory and whether its proven or not its up to debate

AZ2002, take a closer look at the data you're siting. I'm pretty sure you don't understand it.

The breakdown of the software numbers show that the region with the biggest fall off from the DS to the 3DS in those respective fiscal years are from Japan... the market you're not all that worried about. The DS sold 21.5 million games that year versus the 3DS 8.1 million thus far. The Americas should end up fairly close and "Other" will exceed the DS' software sales.

Furthermore, that 21.5 million was driven primarily by an insane year for Nintendo software. The DS had 7 million-sellers in Japan, 6 where from Nintendo... 17 of the Top 20 where from Nintendo or Pokemon Company. The DS had only 1 third party title over 250k at that point (assuming garaph is accurate), 3DS already has 3, with potentially 3 more by the end of the term. Third party sales on the 3DS are relatively even with the DS back then and should easily surpass it by the end of this fiscal year.

There are a few more quick points:
- The 3DS will be one quarter younger than the DS was in the year you've site. Its currently half a year younger, with a smaller overall userbase because of it. The 3DS, this partial fiscal year, has already matched the DS' full fiscal year hardware that year... hardware sales are strong enough for the 3DS to overcome the younger life.

-Nobody is denying that the 3ds had a piss poor start, but its recovered spectacularly. But this will leave it with a shorter ownership average, giving people less time to buy games. This will be overcome with time.

 

[Jonnyram]

Tales of Innocence R is not a remake.
It's a super-enhanced port. Most of the assets from the DS version are reused, and lots of stuff has been added. It feels like a whole new game because it's on a competent piece of hardware — 3D on DS just chugged because of hardware limitations.

 

[Jocchan]

I hope he doesn't bring another silly rule for judging software as LanceStern did. At least.

Now, now, now, now, now. The LanceStern Index of Success is a very important metric for Sales Age.

 

[Maedhros]

None whatsoever.

Considering the 2011 PSP game's launch numbers, I'd say 30~40k would be a pretty impressive performance.

I'd say a number between 50~100k is what I expect.

 

[Black Lawn Finale]

So is the Vita looking at PSP Go status soon or what? Looks like it floundering about even with the slight bump from last week.

 

[Maedhros]

So is the Vita looking at PSP Go status soon or what? Looks like it floundering about even with the slight bump from last week.

Too soon to say. There are a lot of things Sony can do to make it a more viable/desirable platform.

 

[Black Lawn Finale]

Too soon to say. There are a lot of things Sony can do to make it a more viable/desirable platform.

Don't get me wrong, I'm super stoked for the Vita release in America but all of this news and doom has me feeling pretty depressed about wanting to buy one.

 

[Fafalada]

Makes perfect sense.

About as much sense as the "PSN sales are 0% of the total" mentality really.
It's not like Japan public is completely averse to spending on digital items - I've seen F2P games where Japan of all places had the highest paying average per user (granted, the userbase was among the lowest of active territories too ).
Sure, the debate with no real data serves no point in a sales thread, but it's still an interesting question what(if anything) happens on PSN with Vita, especially in countries like Japan.

 

[neptunes]

So is the Vita looking at PSP Go status soon or what? Looks like it floundering about even with the slight bump from last week.

no, just look at PSP sales, once Sony really phases out the PSP and lowers the price of the VITA (around this time next year)

the weekly Media Create Numbers for Vita should roughly = weekly avg vita sales + weekly avg psp sales.

 

[Maedhros]

Don't get me wrong, I'm super stoked for the Vita release in America but all of this news and doom has me feeling pretty depressed about wanting to buy one.

There's nothing we can do. The doom and gloom is really common in this forum.

We'll see if Sony will do something after the western launch.

 

[Pureauthor]

no, just look at PSP sales, once Sony really phases out the PSP and lowers the price of the VITA (around this time next year)

the weekly Media Create Numbers for Vita should roughly = weekly avg vita sales + weekly avg psp sales.

That is not how sales work. The people buying PSPs now are not the people buying launch era Vitas anyway.

 

[Takao]

So is the Vita looking at PSP Go status soon or what? Looks like it floundering about even with the slight bump from last week.

Is this a real post?

 

[Salvadora]

Is this a real post?

Are you a real poster?

 

[Takao]

Are you a real poster?

No, I'm a person, not a poster to hang on the wall.

 

[neptunes]

That is not how sales work. The people buying PSPs now are not the people buying launch era Vitas anyway.

I'm not saying that will happen anytime soon, but only when Sony completely phases out the PSP.

 

[Salvadora]

I'm sure it will do fine in the long run, But i don't see any improvements in the near future. Vita's western launch will be interesting.

 

[charlequin]

I know that it's one of the most popular memes in MC threads to make fun of the possibility of games selling on PSN at all, but the one time we got numbers (P3P) it did around 8% of its sales digitally. Wouldn't it make sense to assume that, with the internet-savvy (as evidenced by demo download numbers) and currently (close to launch) comparatively "hardcore" Vita customer base the fraction should be at least that large?

Well, we have those trends pushing upwards, but storage prices and other factors pushing downwards, at least at the moment. I think carrying over our previous estimate ranges is a safe bet until/unless we get some concrete info about a shift.

Well, looking at the amount of "effort" that ToIR seemingly had put into it it should have broken even already with the first day sales...

Sure, I mean, it's not so much that they can't possibly profit as that, like... why bother with a Vita or 3DS release when PS3 is going to sell six times as much, even with the same amount of "effort"? By pretty much the same standards that the Wii and 360 were essentially failures as Tales platforms, the 3DS and Vita both seem to be off to a rollicking bad start with the franchise.

 

[duckroll]

I would like to note that 8% of any Vita game's total sales right now in Japan would amount to less than 10k. That's another reason why it's not really worth discussing.

 

[AceBandage]

I'm not saying that will happen anytime soon, but only when Sony completely phases out the PSP.

How do you know they'll switch to Vita and not something else?

 

[RyougaSaotome]

Tales of Innocence R is not a remake.
It's a super-enhanced port. Most of the assets from the DS version are reused, and lots of stuff has been added. It feels like a whole new game because it's on a competent piece of hardware — 3D on DS just chugged because of hardware limitations.

This. R kind of occupies this odd space because it really is a significant improvement over the original in pretty much every single way.

As far as I gathered back when it first came out, it wasn't hated by everyone, but there were a lot of problems that combined to make it a pretty lackluster experience. Nowhere near the disaster that was Tempest, but still lacking as a mothership title.

R definitely feels like a Tales game now.

 

[Salvadora]

I'd love to see dd sales figures.

 

[Boney]

Now, now, now, now, now. The LanceStern Index of Success is a very important metric for Sales Age.

now this is something I've never heard before. Care to enlighten batman?

 

[I Stalk Alone]

No, I'm a person, not a poster to hang on the wall.

says the poster with an avatar of a character holding a poster of a poster.....

 

[Black Lawn Finale]

Is this a real post?

My apologies. I was a bit hyperbolic but my concern is still notable.

 

[BKK]

Sure, I mean, it's not so much that they can't possibly profit as that, like... why bother with a Vita or 3DS release when PS3 is going to sell six times as much, even with the same amount of "effort"? By pretty much the same standards that the Wii and 360 were essentially failures as Tales platforms, the 3DS and Vita both seem to be off to a rollicking bad start with the franchise.

Using 360 and Wii as examples the best way to maximise sales seems to be to release on another platform first, then port to PS3 later. Nothing to stop them doing that with ToIR too.

 

[Takao]

My apologies. I was a bit hyperbolic but my concern is still notable.

I was a bit cold in my response as well, sorry about that.

Vita's in trouble, but it's not even in the same universe as PSPgo trouble. PSPgo's LTD in Japan was outdone by Vita's first week.

 

[Black Lawn Finale]

I was a bit cold in my response as well, sorry about that.

Vita's in trouble, but it's not even in the same universe as PSPgo trouble. PSPgo's LTD in Japan was outdone by Vita's first week.

Well that's encouraging. Despite the lackluster sales here in Japan, I have a strange optimism that the Vita is going to do well in Europe and America. I really expect a Playstation Vita commercial during the Super Bowl to gain some exposure but I digress.