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Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Christopher
Member
This wasn't a system seller anyway...a neat multiplayer game but not system seller.
Mario Galaxy made me get a wii.
Mario Galaxy made me get a wii.
Oh okay, thanks.
So that's about 1.42 million per month then for these 6 months. I feel like such a forecast should be illegal or something.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I seem to kind of vaguely remember it rising in the past...
Do you have past numbers or sell through?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
If I remember correctly Taiko usually stays on the charts for months and months.
Generally yes, the first and last Taikos sold over 100k fw but the 3 inbetween did only 20-30k fw. That sellthrough has me worried though, I wonder if we might be looking at a 10-15k first week?
Doesn't matter, according to the charts on eShop it is #1. No filter you can apply will make it go away. If you want to exclude it for whatever reason, you need to mention it. Saying DQX is at #1 is factually wrong.
For big titles like Mario or Taiko retailers don't just order what they can sell immediately. They know they will sell out their stock during the holidays so 1st day ST is not of big concern to them. You can actually see it as a sign of trust in a franchise on behalf of retailers.
This is why L5 titles keep getting large shipments even though 1st day STs tend to disappoint.
It did for PS2 and Wii. Will it for WiiU?
I agree that there's a chance for it to happen of course.
What does this have to do with anything? And you haven't even played the game :/
But 3D mario has never been a major system seller in Japan.
StreetsAhead
Member
Was just at the Yodobashi Camera in Umeda. So many freaking Taiko copies. Saw at least ten people get Mario in about fifteen minutes, but then I realised I was being creepy.
evilromero
Member
NSMBU certainly didn't help the Wii U.
I actually think that NSMBU heavily contributed to the sales that the Wii U has managed to get.
As in, I would really not like to see Wii U sales if NSMBU didn't exist...
1st Course
Member
From the Dengeki archive
Nintendo apparently shipped about 600k units for Galaxy 2 FW. If I were to guess 3D world shipment is probably around 500k.
Nintendo apparently shipped about 600k units for Galaxy 2 FW. If I were to guess 3D world shipment is probably around 500k.
shinra-bansho
Member
Hmm, then would one expect it to end up around 150-170K for the first week?
Unlike the Wii and PS2, the Wii U doesn't really offer a large existing installed nor quickly expanding installed base for these titles to have extended legs that add a lot to their initial sales.
That's the question now isn't it.
Unlike the Wii and PS2, the Wii U doesn't really offer a large existing installed nor quickly expanding installed base for these titles to have extended legs that add a lot to their initial sales.
The first two Taiko games on the Wii:
From Garaph
The first 3DS entry:
The series has amazing legs. It is clear that an extended audience bought the first Taiko on the Wii, which lead to an amazing opening. Compare that to the rest of the series and you will notice a more traditional sales pattern.
Code:
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Bandai Namco) - 114,610 / 646,709 / 17.72% 11/12/08
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Bandai Namco) - 29,439 / 363,170 / 8.11% 19/11/09The first 3DS entry:
The series has amazing legs. It is clear that an extended audience bought the first Taiko on the Wii, which lead to an amazing opening. Compare that to the rest of the series and you will notice a more traditional sales pattern.
kubricks
Member
Oh my what happened Mario?!
It had so many great reviews and from what I heard lots of commercial to boost the hype, and yet only 20% ST? How much did they ship?
And about the Taiko no Tatsujin... I just can't see how you can put any positive spin on this. It's just bloody awful. It will have legs, just short and small ones.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I think Taiko won't have as long of legs as it did on the PS2 or Wii, but I do think it will raise the Wii U baseline for perhaps a month or so. It's hard to tell how much of an effect just that will have considering the holidays will no doubt affect sales.
Great insight as always. Btw the 3DS rankings are back on the (3DS) eShop after Nintendo suddenly stopped them. I checked out your site and noticed they hadn't returned there!
gamergirly
Member
Um, let's give 3D World more than one day to sell people lol.....
It is really hard to judge the sell through numbers since we don't know shipment info.
For example last years Taiko for the Wii:
For example last years Taiko for the Wii:
Code:
First day sell through:
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition < 50%
Code:
First week sales:
03./00. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.11.29} (¥5.040) - 115.955 / NEWDarkLordMalik
Member
I think that it has got more to do with releasing too much Atelier games in a single year. The recently released Atelier Escha and Logy didn't do that good as well.
BishopLamont
Banned
lol @ the hyperbole after first day st..u guys are real classy.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
The Wii U sales make me extremely worried about the future of the Japanese home console market.
If the Wii U can't succeed with New Super Mario Bros. (which still has immense sales power as proven by NSMB2), as well as Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest (which as an MMO has obviously dimished sales) then how exactly can the PS4 survive with its significantly more Western lineup? And at $100 more?
I think home consoles are done in Japan. Final Fantasy doesn't have near the draw it once did, and who knows about console Kingdom Hearts. In the end I predict sub 5 million sales for both the Wii U and PS4 in Japan.
I wouldn't be surprised if they are really close when all is said and done. It sucks because JRPGs are my favorite genre.
If the Wii U can't succeed with New Super Mario Bros. (which still has immense sales power as proven by NSMB2), as well as Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest (which as an MMO has obviously dimished sales) then how exactly can the PS4 survive with its significantly more Western lineup? And at $100 more?
I think home consoles are done in Japan. Final Fantasy doesn't have near the draw it once did, and who knows about console Kingdom Hearts. In the end I predict sub 5 million sales for both the Wii U and PS4 in Japan.
I wouldn't be surprised if they are really close when all is said and done. It sucks because JRPGs are my favorite genre.
It's over, period. Nintendo lost their last ace, and that's the end of their Wii U hopes and dreams.
It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for Wii U. Nintendo has nothing left, nothing they can reveal tomorrow would fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for any one, hardcore or casual, to substantively invest in a Wii U. Except if they want to play Smash Bros. Which will also come to 3DS at some point.
The age of Nintendo is done.
It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for Wii U. Nintendo has nothing left, nothing they can reveal tomorrow would fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for any one, hardcore or casual, to substantively invest in a Wii U. Except if they want to play Smash Bros. Which will also come to 3DS at some point.
The age of Nintendo is done.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I don't think the age of Nintendo is done, but home consoles are probably on their way out.
With the focus remaining on handhelds in Japan the age of Nintendo is in its prime.
theprodigy
Member
michaelius
Banned
Wii U happened.
Altrough with it's owners not touching any 3rd party game except launch MH3 you would think they would be part of "I buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games" crowd
DarkLordMalik
Member
Hey, at least it will get decent third party support in Japan unlike Wii U
spatenfloot
Member
So you moved to the Vita section?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Lol how could I have forgotten that shining moment in time?
I guess I'm not an expert.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Well, if they literally shipped a copy of SM3DW for every Wii U ever sold in japan, then first day sales of 20% that would be 234k units. I'd guess the real numbers are somewhat less than that.
spatenfloot
Member
I think it could do surprisingly well. I might be wrong though.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Which game(s) do you think will keep it from reaching Wii U levels? Killzone? Knack?
Or is it the backwards compatibility
that will keep it viable until games more popular in the market are released?Let's face it: the PS4 doesn't have a NSMBU, or even a MH3U. There's nothing announced outside of KH3 and FFXV (which very likely will not come next year) that even appeals to the market.
StreetsAhead
Member
Well, there wasn't really anything exciting going on there, if you catch my drift.
Freezie KO
Banned
I wonder how much of it is that the 3DS market, which is huge in Japan, feels it has no reason to buy a Wii U because of the similarity of software.
The argument has been made that the 3DS is hurting the Wii U since the handheld/console power disparity has never been this close before. Now you can get NSMB2 instead of NSMBU, DKCReturns instead of DKC Tropical Freeze, 3D Land instead of 3D World, Mario Kart 7 instead of Mario Kart 8, and Smash Bros 4 instead of Smash Bros 4.
It'd make sense that this would be even more prominent in Japan, where the 3DS is king. If that's what we're seeing with 3D World, then Nintendo's strategy of releasing games that are very similar to their predecessors is going to continue to hurt them for the foreseeable future because it affects all their upcoming big titles.
On a personal level, I can't help but hope that forces Nintendo to mix things up a bit, creatively.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
There wasn't a huge disparity between NSMB and NSMB Wii. Or Mario Kart DS and Mario Kart Wii.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
But people were already interested in the system before those games even got announced thanks to games that didn't have DS counterparts.
airmangataosenai
Member
Do people here seriously think stores ordered something to the effect of 500k copies of Mario despite the low preorder numbers? Best case scenario would be half of that with all the recent problems with stores over ordering and getting stuck with stock of 250,000 which would still make it the largest shipment to date for the system (Even Pikmin which is widely considered a success took over 3 months to sell though it's initial allotment).
Freezie KO
Banned
True, but Wii was already a phenomenon by the time those came out. Now Nintendo is relying on me-too sequels to build momentum, rather than ride the wave of it.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
The games significantly increased hardware sales. As well as for the 3DS; remember when Mario Kart 7 was released? Remember all of the doom and gloom (before MH3 was announced)?
The Wii U is the only thing I've ever been wrong about as far as console predictions in Japan go, and it is driving me crazy.
Call me crazy but I really think 3DS sales is cannibalizing into WiiU's sales.
Actually it is eating every other console and handheld's share but as for now WiiU got effected the most IMHO.
(Vita was effected at its launch mostly, but after everyone knew Monster Hunter's not coming to Vita it's not affected furthermore.)
Actually it is eating every other console and handheld's share but as for now WiiU got effected the most IMHO.
(Vita was effected at its launch mostly, but after everyone knew Monster Hunter's not coming to Vita it's not affected furthermore.)
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I think the Vita is still affected.
The only genre where it outnumbers the 3DS is in Monster Hunter clones. I think the rest of gamers just look at the two libraries side by side and go with the 3DS... unless of course they want a MH clone.
BishopLamont
Banned
We're getting close to the holiday season, retailers ordering bigger shipments in preparation for it isn't unprecedented. Its also Mario we're talking bout here.
Its not your fault, Nintendo screwed the pooch royally when it comes to software for the system.
Yeah this has been obvious for awhile now, but I'd disagree on Wii U being affected the most, I'd say Vita felt the brunt of it, Wii U's problems come from within itself for the most part.
Even the PSP fared way better against the DS than the Vita is against the 3DS, even when the PSP didn't have MH yet.
Nah, the vita definitely has more dating sims.
airmangataosenai
Member
Games are important in Japan for sure, but I've been following Media Create sales since before the DS launched and there definitely is a trend with momentum that the Japanese industry has always followed and people here don't pay enough attention to. No one or two games ever change around a console's fortunes. It's all about momentum in Japan, you simply don't go from 0 to 60 in 3 seconds.
Going into the second holiday the DS was selling 30-40k a week and then Animal Crossing/Mario Kart coming out so close lead to a huge boost all at once, followed by DSL in February where the system entered over a year long stretch of never selling sub-100k kept alive by NSMB a few months later, and Pokemon after that. Improvements in Japan subside quickly if you don't constantly feed the fire and Nintendo has their releases spread too far apart right now to create proper momentum even if Mario did end up selling well. Realistically Donkey Kong isn't going to do jack shit and Mario Kart is at minimum over 4 months off from now, maybe more.
michaelius
Banned
The last time people were making prediction of next gen doing badly in NPD threads due to low Wii U sales signaling doom of industry a lot of crow was served.
We already know PS4 will be getting big 3rd party IPs :
FF, MGS, Yakuza,Dynasty Warriors
and it is natural target for Tales, Resident Evil, Dark Souls, etc.
as well as it will have most of western IPs that matter in Japan - GTA, CoD, BF, Uncharted
Plus it's cheaper and won't have competitors unlike PS3.
Magicpaint
Member
I know those sellthrough figures look bad, but most of these games aren't super frontloaded. Taiko especially has incredibly long legs. Though no shipment info doesn't help to gauge anything for the long term.