At least it will outsell Type-0.
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At least it will outsell Type-0.
Historical 2nd week drop
[PS1] Final Fantasy VII - 2.034.879 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy VII - 329.740 / 2.364.619 (-84%)
[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII - 2.504.044 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII - 270.993 / 2.775.037 (-89%)
[PS1] Final Fantasy IX - 1.954.421 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy IX - 328.404 / 2.282.825 (-83%)
[PS2] Final Fantasy X - 1.749.737 / NEW
[PS2] Final Fantasy X - 233.429 / 1.983.166 (-87%)
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII - 1.840.397 / NEW
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII - 217.438 / 2.057.835 (-88%)
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII - 1.516.532 / NEW
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII - 181.724 / 1.698.256 (-88%)
FFXIII 2nd week was during what's usually the biggest week for PS software, FFXV's second week will have to compete against the launch of Yakuza 6.
Though this game is the closest FFXV will perform compared to.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 605.660 / NEW
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 91.486 / 697.146 (-85%)
[PS1] Final Fantasy VII - 2.034.879 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy VII - 329.740 / 2.364.619 (-84%)
[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII - 2.504.044 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII - 270.993 / 2.775.037 (-89%)
[PS1] Final Fantasy IX - 1.954.421 / NEW
[PS1] Final Fantasy IX - 328.404 / 2.282.825 (-83%)
[PS2] Final Fantasy X - 1.749.737 / NEW
[PS2] Final Fantasy X - 233.429 / 1.983.166 (-87%)
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII - 1.840.397 / NEW
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII - 217.438 / 2.057.835 (-88%)
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII - 1.516.532 / NEW
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII - 181.724 / 1.698.256 (-88%)
FFXIII 2nd week was during what's usually the biggest week for PS software, FFXV's second week will have to compete against the launch of Yakuza 6.
Though this game is the closest FFXV will perform compared to.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 605.660 / NEW
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 - 91.486 / 697.146 (-85%)
two more updates and FFXV will be saved
Tabby saving FFXV one update at a time!
Square2015
Member
Remember the first week includes 6 days, so it will be more front loaded than usual and a larger second week drop.
Eolz
Member
Because Switch is getting its games announced in 2017 and that will show support coming there. Wouldn't be the first time exclusive game to get other platforms announced before it's even released anyway, and wouldn't hurt anything.
There's no chance of XV working on Switch anyway, not sure why people are even suggesting it. Thank the engine for that.
I dont know if the loss of stature would be that big though - the JPN home console market is in shambles right now. Their FF mobile games are performing quite well so its not like the IP is losing much of its worth...just that many customer moved on, in the case of FFXV and the involved waiting game i cant blame them.
Switch isnt a console though :v:
The same stuff was said for Ninokuni 2 - we will see how it turns out. I hope that these ambitious Japanese games perform well - PS4 and Steam/Switch in that order is what they should aim for.
The Last One
Member
I don't think Square has ever done that though.
Switch being a console or not is irrelevant for the "Play it first on PS4".
What if both 7R and KH3 won't be on Switch which I think is the most likely scenario. People keep overestimating NX hardware capabilities IMO.
I think we need to keep in mind that YSO's predictions are very statistic based, and the reason their average predictions tend to be spot on is because the market is largely predictable based on existing trends, especially for genres, brands, etc which are so regular and similar that generally what we see is what we get.
FFXV is a pretty unusual situation, which means predictions are probably less reliable. Preorders are tracked at retail so that's one data point which can point to demand. But the bigger question will be how many people plan to pick it up on release day/weekend without a preorder? That usually makes up the majority of sales for big titles because preorders generally represent a smaller hardcore fanbase, so the more mainstream a game, the more non-preorder customers there will be.
So what makes it so hard to nail down exactly how high or low the demand for FFXV is? Well for starters, the PS4 has never had a title capable of selling more than 400k on the platform alone before. The biggest titles in the past were all cross-generation. Secondly, there hasn't been a big major single player JRPG released on a console since FFXIII. By major I mean > 1million, not >500k. None. Dragon Quest moved to portables. Pokemon is portable. All console FF and DQ games were MMOs. What else? FFXIII is the only PS3 game to have sold over a million in Japan. The only one ever. The first and the last.
So yeah, there's a serious lack of strong data points for how well a brand new single player numbered FF on the PS4 could sell to the wider market. That alone, suggests that the outlook is pessimistic, because it means the market has largely abandoned this sort of release for a long time.
FFXV is a pretty unusual situation, which means predictions are probably less reliable. Preorders are tracked at retail so that's one data point which can point to demand. But the bigger question will be how many people plan to pick it up on release day/weekend without a preorder? That usually makes up the majority of sales for big titles because preorders generally represent a smaller hardcore fanbase, so the more mainstream a game, the more non-preorder customers there will be.
So what makes it so hard to nail down exactly how high or low the demand for FFXV is? Well for starters, the PS4 has never had a title capable of selling more than 400k on the platform alone before. The biggest titles in the past were all cross-generation. Secondly, there hasn't been a big major single player JRPG released on a console since FFXIII. By major I mean > 1million, not >500k. None. Dragon Quest moved to portables. Pokemon is portable. All console FF and DQ games were MMOs. What else? FFXIII is the only PS3 game to have sold over a million in Japan. The only one ever. The first and the last.
So yeah, there's a serious lack of strong data points for how well a brand new single player numbered FF on the PS4 could sell to the wider market. That alone, suggests that the outlook is pessimistic, because it means the market has largely abandoned this sort of release for a long time.
There's an argument to be made that Japan's console market is not relevant, yes, but then I'd point back to my stance that they should go all in on the West from a product design level.
On the mobile note though, some of that is age related. It's where the people who loved FF back in the day are playing now. Similarly this is why the new hit mobile Yu-Gi-Oh game is all about the original cast.
I never said they would launch at the same time.
At the same time i dont think Cloud joining Smash and the Amiibo being saved for the Switch re-release are things that just happen.
If the games arent on Switch - i dont think its hardware powers will be the reason for that. Switch will be like 10-20x times as powerful as Vita and even Vita is able to share a bunch of less demanding japanese games with the PS4.
The Last One
Member
I know you didn't, but the game will probably come to Switch, I agree. But I don't see a point in announcing it before it releases on PS4. We're talking about one of the favorite things of SE here: double dipping.
Ninokuni 2 is being bankrolled by Bandai Namco, and is almost exclusively meant for the western market. Level-5 has shown zero interest in even marketing the game on their own in Japan, and the Japanese website for the game only carries the English trailer and the English game logo and title. We don't even know if there will be a Japanese release for the game at all. It's hilarious.
Eolz
Member
And it will still be first on PS4, and more important there (for userbase and historical relevance). But yeah, I agree that S-E might wait until it's out.
It's different from other games though, way bigger in terms of importance, so who knows.
Switch can easily run UE4 games on it, which is kind of the point. It might be ugly and have some compromises, like bad loading screens, but it shouldn't have trouble running on it (unlike XV).
There's no bad points for S-E to port those on it anyway (KH history on those platforms, nintendo/handheld userbase and RPGs, FF7 history, etc), unless obviously, it's a failure.
None of those games will be out before a while anyway, leaving a good time for S-E to take that decision.
1st Course
Member
RE7 will see the biggest decline out of the big PS franchises.
Being FPS + VR focused....
If it does 1/2 RE6 numbers Capcom should be thankful.
Being FPS + VR focused....
If it does 1/2 RE6 numbers Capcom should be thankful.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Noctis did not deserve this .__.
I will be very surprised if 1 million LTD is not reached.
I will be very surprised if 1 million LTD is not reached.
Yerah but here were talking about two games which are far more hardware dependant than any other 3rd party developed Japanese game by a wide margin at least from what we've seen.
astrogamer
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2016
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (28 days) - 395k
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (28 days) - 190k
[3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon [2nd month sales] (28 days) - 854k
[PS4] Final Fantasy XV (27 days) - 721k
[3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS (25 days) - 200k
[3DS] Miitopia (18 days) - 121k
[PS4] Yakuza 6 (18 days) - 308k
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (11 days) - 390k
[PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace (11 days) - 50k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (28 days) - 395k
[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (28 days) - 190k
[3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon [2nd month sales] (28 days) - 854k
[PS4] Final Fantasy XV (27 days) - 721k
[3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS (25 days) - 200k
[3DS] Miitopia (18 days) - 121k
[PS4] Yakuza 6 (18 days) - 308k
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (11 days) - 390k
[PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace (11 days) - 50k
I wonder if Sony is paying for development of that game at least in part. Kinda like SFV. Also NNK2 situation is strange the game was revealed years ago with what seems at the time a substantial trailer with English voice acting and stuff but after that there has been absolutely nothing. Weird.
DriftingSpirit
Member
They would have to make some drastic changes to the FF brand if they want to start depending on Xbox in the west.
Something doesn't compute.
Saving FF? How about saving Japanese market? FFXV will be the best selling game on PS4 with ease, the problem is how insignificant that achievement has become.
Ni No Kuni bombed so hard in Japan lol. I remember seeing a lot of Ni No Kuni themed PS3 in China and they weren't even sold at a higher price.
Ni No Kuni bombed so hard in Japan lol. I remember seeing a lot of Ni No Kuni themed PS3 in China and they weren't even sold at a higher price.
Hellraider
Member
Only it's not.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
90% of sales in the West will come from PS4. Also don't see Switch helping much. The fanbase has been centred of PS4 so final sales will be majorly dictated by performance on said system.
I think Aostia is right insomuch that the Xbox brand has very, very high sales for WRPGs.
That FFXV is showing zero traction on that platform suggests they're having significant issues crossing over into the expanded WRPG audience, which is part of why I'm pessimistic about it doing especially well in the West.
That FFXV is showing zero traction on that platform suggests they're having significant issues crossing over into the expanded WRPG audience, which is part of why I'm pessimistic about it doing especially well in the West.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Switch being compatible with UE4 doesnt really mean anything, mobile phones are too.
Its not an xbox one and you guys shouldnt get your hopes up for games like FFXV and FF7.
Its not an xbox one and you guys shouldnt get your hopes up for games like FFXV and FF7.
One only needs to look at how badly FF XIII did on the 360 last gen to see that even at the height of XBOX no one was buying Final Fantasy on the thing in the west. That was further reinforced by Type Zero's performance, which hit the bomba bin in near record time on the platform. FF XV will do much, much worse than FF XIII and probably not much better than Type Zero on the XBONE in the west.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Exactly.
I think that is the bigger problem here. It doesn't matter how well a company works on releasing their game right if the market they are releasing it into is a wasteland.
I think that is more on the disconnect between the Xbox audience and the Japanese aspect of the game. They would have had to completely reform that part of it in order for the Xbox audience to come in.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Wasn't Witcher also skewed towards PS4? I think aesthetics and gameplay are a big reason why FFXV will not appeal to WRPG fans.
Sure XV won't do all that hot on Xbox but it should be much better than Type-0 based on marketing alone. I feel like reviews will also be important.
Sammy Samusu
Member
And this is a horrible scenario for Square Enix and future FF games.
At this point SE should be the one "hoping" for it to run on Switch.
If FFXV sees a decline at west too who are you gonna blame if the problem is just Japanese market?
Companies and games get what they deserve in Japan.
It was 60% PS4, 40% XB1 in its NPD debut month, which would be appropriate for the install bases at the time.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Is there any difference if FF fan bought FFXV on platform x,y, z....not really.
Eolz
Member
Again, XV won't run there because their engine is a mess.
Saying UE4 runs on mobile phones is true, but only up to a point. Switch's hardware is different and can theoretically make it work, again with some compromises, just like any games on any platform.
You're really overestimating FF7R and KH3 if you think this can't run on this. Anyway, this is getting off-topic there. If S-E decides to not port those, it won't be an hardware reason.
Oh hey guys what's goin-
"Aiming at the west" only makes sense if your western sales increase to cover your domestic losses.
"Aiming at the west" only makes sense if your western sales increase to cover your domestic losses.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
Sammy Samusu
Member
I don't really think there is a particularly relevant "WRPG fans" demographic anymore in terms of the argument between JRPG and WRPG. Yes, there are audiences who prefer JRPGs, and audiences who specifically prefer WRPGs for what WRPGs offer. But I think both of these audiences are pretty small in the larger scheme of things.
The real question we should be asking is, is [x] appealing to the average mainstream audience. Because this is where the millions are coming from, not a niche audience specifically excited about a given type of RPG. I feel that the majority of people who bought Mass Effect bought it because they like Star Wars and Star Trek and Avatar or whatever. And the majority of the people who bought Dragon Age, Witcher, and even Dark Souls, are people who enjoy Lord of the Rings, Conan the Barbarian, Berserk, Gladiator, etc. The main appeal imo, certainly isn't RPG systems or game design, but rather the sell of being able to play a high production value interactive adventure in the sort of scifi or fantasy setting a person already enjoys watching or reading in other mediums.
So the question is really, to the mainstream audience out there, how appealing is a roadtrip with a bunch of bros in suits, fighting monsters along the way, camping, driving, etc?
The real question we should be asking is, is [x] appealing to the average mainstream audience. Because this is where the millions are coming from, not a niche audience specifically excited about a given type of RPG. I feel that the majority of people who bought Mass Effect bought it because they like Star Wars and Star Trek and Avatar or whatever. And the majority of the people who bought Dragon Age, Witcher, and even Dark Souls, are people who enjoy Lord of the Rings, Conan the Barbarian, Berserk, Gladiator, etc. The main appeal imo, certainly isn't RPG systems or game design, but rather the sell of being able to play a high production value interactive adventure in the sort of scifi or fantasy setting a person already enjoys watching or reading in other mediums.
So the question is really, to the mainstream audience out there, how appealing is a roadtrip with a bunch of bros in suits, fighting monsters along the way, camping, driving, etc?
There's also Dragon Quest XI but that will be on 3DS and Switch so yeah pretty much
.DriftingSpirit
Member
I don't think it is placing blame. It is understanding the market devs are releasing their games into.
I mean, consider how much decline we have seen this gen. A ton of it. Would it be fair to say the devs are solely responsible for it? That they just aren't doing good enough with their releases?
As I said earlier, regardless of how well devs do with their games, how can any sustainability or growth be expected with things the way they are now in Japan?
Okay, I looked it up, and even despite Bloodborne being exclusive to PS4, Dark Souls 3 was still only a 70/30 split in favor of the PS4 in the US.
I think something like that would be the target suggesting some breakthrough with wider mainstream game players instead of just historical FF fans and Japanese game enthusiasts.
I think something like that would be the target suggesting some breakthrough with wider mainstream game players instead of just historical FF fans and Japanese game enthusiasts.
DQ XI is still a big deal. Should handily outsell FF XV on the PS4 unless the 3DS (or possibly the Switch version) somehow eats its lunch
Sun & Moon saved only Nintendo. Japan console market is still on decline.