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Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2014 (Nov 17 - Nov 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
gigantor21
Member
Grasping at straws, same way they've been doing for years now.
I'm surprised we haven't seen something like this a while ago, given how many other trends they've blindly chased after.
It's the latter, 2013 total is 51.321.000.
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 1 to 28):
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 600000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 200000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 150000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 500000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 150000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2000000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 200000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 100000
Thanks! So there's no possibility to beat the 2013 YTD right? Or could YW 2.5, Smash Wii U and MH4G/ORAS legs make for the difference? (I don't know if there's another big SW launch this holiday).
Pennywise83
Banned
Last year's December was a bit overwhelming; MH and PKMN didn't have huge legs, and were released in Sept and Oct; the only big seller was PaD Z, which released at the end of Dec. This year there's a certain (multi?)-million seller in December, and Pokémon will sell well throughout December. Maybe the gap won't be closed, but there might be only a slight decrease.
Surely Bike Rider DX (and sequel) should feature then? The games are consistently high in the eShop charts. Unless they are always just under the lowest chart entry!
1st Course
Member
That's 2012 total. 2013 total is 49.146.000 .
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 1 to 28):
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 816.000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 221.000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 145.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 658.000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 162.000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2.134.000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 187.000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 119.000
Is the Week 52 included in these predictions? (I don't know the famitsu/MC calendar for this year). If it's not included I'll change the numbers ;D
Selling 12-14 million in one month? Even YW 2.5/ORAS/MH4G/Smash Bros in December couldn't that. It'll be difficult to reach 45 million, so reaching 50 million or more... I don't see it IMO
PS: Saw 1st Course numbers and doesn't change anything that I said above.
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 816.000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 221.000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 145.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 658.000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 162.000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2.134.000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 187.000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 119.000
Is the Week 52 included in these predictions? (I don't know the famitsu/MC calendar for this year). If it's not included I'll change the numbers ;D
Selling 12-14 million in one month? Even YW 2.5/ORAS/MH4G/Smash Bros in December couldn't that. It'll be difficult to reach 45 million, so reaching 50 million or more... I don't see it IMO
PS: Saw 1st Course numbers and doesn't change anything that I said above.
Pennywise83
Banned
Selling 10-11m would mean a slight decrease and not closing the gap, as I said. Usually sales increase in December, for all games.
1st Course
Member
Agreed. This year will another year of decline overall.
Bruno MB
Member
The gap is huge (5,7 million) and this December is extremely underwhelming in terms of releases. If it wasn't for Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi which I expect it can sell 2 million units this year, the gap would get even bigger. There is also Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire but at best it will double Pokémon X / Y which sold 681.022 units in the last 5 weeks of 2013. Monster Hunter 4G will have enough matching Monster Hunter 4 (see my comparison chart).
Wii U has Super Smash Bros. for Wii U but it's not rival for the trio formed by Super Mario 3D World, Wii Party U and New Super Mario Bros. U which had a combined sales of a million units. It is also true that with the inclusion of Mario Kart 8 things even out a bit, but its performance will depend on Wii U hardware and the outlook is not very encouraging.
Then, the other remaining platforms don't have anything worth mentioning. For example, last year PlayStation 3 had Gran Turismo 6 (282.686) and Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster (182.638) as its biggest sellers, this year will be even worse.
Wii U has Super Smash Bros. for Wii U but it's not rival for the trio formed by Super Mario 3D World, Wii Party U and New Super Mario Bros. U which had a combined sales of a million units. It is also true that with the inclusion of Mario Kart 8 things even out a bit, but its performance will depend on Wii U hardware and the outlook is not very encouraging.
Then, the other remaining platforms don't have anything worth mentioning. For example, last year PlayStation 3 had Gran Turismo 6 (282.686) and Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster (182.638) as its biggest sellers, this year will be even worse.
Pennywise83
Banned
Just out of curiosity, is it possible to have 2013 December sales? It might make things clearer.
Moor-Angol
Banned
separate of course, different release dates
but Famitsu just made a mess with Pokemon back in the days, counting them separetely and then merging together (blue, red, green and yellow...) despite different releases
anyway, actually I would be surprised if they (and M-C too) count them together
Media Create didn't count bundled sales of Wii Party U and New Super Mario Bros. U. 3DS and Wii U top last year's sales but every other system is pathetic. It's up to 3DS and what bump its software will get but at the very best the gap will close 1-2 millions.
Seperate of course.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
What are people's expectations for Super Smash Bros Wii U?
Are we looking to a similar debut to Mario Kart 8? 300-350k debut-ish?
Are we looking to a similar debut to Mario Kart 8? 300-350k debut-ish?
500k imo.
astrogamer
Member
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 850k
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 240k
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 195k
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 550k
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 121k
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) -2100k
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) -145k
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 120k
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 240k
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 195k
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 550k
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 121k
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) -2100k
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) -145k
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 120k
Another title just got destroyed.
An opening close to Mario Kart 8, a little more or less, looks possible.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Comgnetsu Weekly
YW 2.5 : 1,477pt (-76 to go)
points earned from previuos weeks :
last week +326
2 weeks ago +273
3 weeks ago +214
4 weeks ago +178
at this rate it might reach 2,000pt on Dec.12 (2 weeks left)
YW 2.5 : 1,477pt (-76 to go)
points earned from previuos weeks :
last week +326
2 weeks ago +273
3 weeks ago +214
4 weeks ago +178
at this rate it might reach 2,000pt on Dec.12 (2 weeks left)
Oops, sorry, thanks for correcting.
Pennywise83
Banned
Yes, 300-350k seems more likely; than holidays should give him more steam after launch.
4G went kusoge and the numbers speak themselves.
Pennywise83
Banned
An expansion released at full price one year later the original version in 2014 was never going to replicate the latter's numbers. If the game can end to sell 3m, it would be within Capcom's expectations.
Media Create:
"Software sales for the week were 1.854.058, second best week of the year behind Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate week with 1.854.220.
Comparing to X/Y: 20 years old buyers are more, percentage wise, having played original Ruby/Sapphire. 15 years old buyers on the other hand are less and future demand entering holidays will depend on how much the game will manage to attract younger audience."
"Software sales for the week were 1.854.058, second best week of the year behind Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate week with 1.854.220.
Comparing to X/Y: 20 years old buyers are more, percentage wise, having played original Ruby/Sapphire. 15 years old buyers on the other hand are less and future demand entering holidays will depend on how much the game will manage to attract younger audience."
Yeah, they've really been pushing the whole nostalgia aspect for Pokémon OR/AS... maybe a bit too much, ha ha.
***
In other news, Youkai Watch movie breaking its own record: 840 000 advance tickets purchased. It was at 720k in early november. At this rate, it might even hit 1m.
Oh, and Youkai Watch will appear at the Kohaku Uta Gassen, too. Even Pokémon never achieved that, ha ha.
***
In other news, Youkai Watch movie breaking its own record: 840 000 advance tickets purchased. It was at 720k in early november. At this rate, it might even hit 1m.
Oh, and Youkai Watch will appear at the Kohaku Uta Gassen, too. Even Pokémon never achieved that, ha ha.
In other Youkai Watch achievement news: A Youkai Watch calendar released in McDonalds Japan sold over 1,500,000 million in just two weeks breaking the Guinness world record for most calendars ever sold in a year beating out the 2010 Pokemon Calendar (1.47mil).
http://news.goo.ne.jp/article/sankei/business/industry/snk20141126553.html
Moor-Angol
Banned
Jinbanyan >>>> pikachu
i told you 2 months ago
i told you 2 months ago
Sammy Samusu
Member
Whisper :lol
Make sense, nowadays Yokai is the more popular RPG compared to Final Fantasy.
When was the last time FF achieved 3M in Japan?
FF8.
Pennywise83
Banned
Sammy Samusu
Member
They closed the thread.
Justice for Whislion.
Maybe Hino's new PS4 game is indeed a new and improved WKC.
Justice for Whislion.
Maybe Hino's new PS4 game is indeed a new and improved WKC.
Indeed, knowing Level5 it's likely they are going to dry up the franchise before 2018.Level 5 will run YW into the ground before FFXV is released!
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Agreed.
Seems shipments on Amazon.co.jp have been progressively selling out with the In stock on header appearing on several occasions and selling out those respective dates. Now appears In stock on December 1, 2014.
I think Pokemon ORAS will have a LTD of 3-3.5 million but Yokai Watch = competition so if they want to achieve those numbers or more, they need to be more aggressive.
Pokemon never had a real competitor since Yu-Gi-Oh! back in the day, now Yokai Watch is here causing a turbulence in the Pokemon realm lol and Level-5 is aggressive as fuck with Yokai Watch.
On a side note, I'm not understanding Toho to be honest, Pokemon achieved a Guiness World Record for 2,384,198 pre-sold tickets before its opening in Japanese theaters back in 2009.
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.126342-Twelfth-Pokemon-Movie-Sets-Guinness-Records
Ok, so, since Chaos Rings III is not interesting anymore, just sad (still between 1,000 to 5,000 downloads on Google Play), let's just focus on Skylock, the other title I've been analysing for a while. Recently, it also achieved a specific result, and that makes things quite interesting.
Here's the situation on Google Play
Free Download Chart
It was high two weeks ago, it's been very high for a while. Just last week the game started going down, but very slowly, and it's still around top 10 or just outside of it, so still big.
Now, a brand new news about its download number
October 31st, 2014 - between 10,000 and 50,000
...
November 3rd, 2014 (guess) - between 50,000 and 100,000
...
November 11th, 2014 (guess) - between 100,000 and 500,000
...
November 25th, 2014 - between 500,000 and 1,000,000
This means that the game has been downloaded around 400,000 times between around November 11th and November 25th, so about 14 days.
Ranking progression from November 11th to November 25th
59th -> 7th -> 2nd - > 2nd -> 1st -> 1st -> 1st -> 1st -> 5th -> 6th -> 4th -> 4th -> 6th -> 6th -> 7th
November 11th was the last low ranking day. Then, top 10, if not top 3, if not actually 1st.
400,000 in 14 days brings up a daily average of 28,571 downloads. But, again, November 11th has the game at 59th, which is by far the lowest placement reached by the game in the past 20 days. So, the daily average is brought way lower by that. It's also true that the game still took about 2 weeks to be downloaded 400,000 times despite being high / very high for the whole period, except for the first day. Thus, it should be reasonable to estimate being in top 5 resulting in 40,000 - 50,000 downloads per day. I'd really like to know your opinion on the matter.
Grossing Chart
The past two weeks saw a surge compared to rankings since launch, so much that it reached the highest placement so far (60th on Novembr 22nd), followed by a steady decline in the past week (80th just a few hours ago). I don't know how to rank this game's grossing performance. It looks like a game that is surely downloaded by a good amount of people, but that isn't seeing an IAP adoption as big as downloads. Or, better, not nearly as big. But it could be just me. Your thoughts on the matter?
Tomorrow, I'll post the corresponding iOS charts for Skylock.
Here's the situation on Google Play
Free Download Chart
It was high two weeks ago, it's been very high for a while. Just last week the game started going down, but very slowly, and it's still around top 10 or just outside of it, so still big.
Now, a brand new news about its download number
October 31st, 2014 - between 10,000 and 50,000
...
November 3rd, 2014 (guess) - between 50,000 and 100,000
...
November 11th, 2014 (guess) - between 100,000 and 500,000
...
November 25th, 2014 - between 500,000 and 1,000,000
This means that the game has been downloaded around 400,000 times between around November 11th and November 25th, so about 14 days.
Ranking progression from November 11th to November 25th
59th -> 7th -> 2nd - > 2nd -> 1st -> 1st -> 1st -> 1st -> 5th -> 6th -> 4th -> 4th -> 6th -> 6th -> 7th
November 11th was the last low ranking day. Then, top 10, if not top 3, if not actually 1st.
400,000 in 14 days brings up a daily average of 28,571 downloads. But, again, November 11th has the game at 59th, which is by far the lowest placement reached by the game in the past 20 days. So, the daily average is brought way lower by that. It's also true that the game still took about 2 weeks to be downloaded 400,000 times despite being high / very high for the whole period, except for the first day. Thus, it should be reasonable to estimate being in top 5 resulting in 40,000 - 50,000 downloads per day. I'd really like to know your opinion on the matter.
Grossing Chart
The past two weeks saw a surge compared to rankings since launch, so much that it reached the highest placement so far (60th on Novembr 22nd), followed by a steady decline in the past week (80th just a few hours ago). I don't know how to rank this game's grossing performance. It looks like a game that is surely downloaded by a good amount of people, but that isn't seeing an IAP adoption as big as downloads. Or, better, not nearly as big. But it could be just me. Your thoughts on the matter?
Tomorrow, I'll post the corresponding iOS charts for Skylock.
What's the endgame here?
NeonZ
Member
Couldn't it just be a Persona thing? Considering the online impressions at least, it seems like the Shinovi Versus series is looked at much more favorably than the mainline entries or this weird cooking spin off.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Pokemon ORAS combined - 1553pt (last day)
YW 2.5 - 1530pt (12 days left)
mission accomplished
YW 2.5 - 1530pt (12 days left)
mission accomplished
I personally think it will tend to a point where we get a 10-12 million selling handheld and a 4-8 million selling console market next generation and not really drop from there. It seems there has to be a bottom end to the decline.
shinra-bansho
Member
jeremy1456
Junior Member
It's crazy that Yokai Watch is more popular than modern Final Fantasy now. In Japan at least.
Nintendo and Sony should try as hard as they can to get a console installment.
Nintendo and Sony should try as hard as they can to get a console installment.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Amazing, isn't it? Really happy for Level 5 & Nintendo - they have built a great relationship.
Pokemon's here to stay in the long run; though eclipsed by Youkai Watch currently with merchandise sales, licensing ventures, etc.
If one looks at Box-Office trends, it seems the Pokemon franchise is where it was between 2002-2003 in Japan. Then a resurgence followed in 2004.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out moving forward.
Hero of Legend
Member
I was expecting him to do the robot.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I'm interested in it cause I want to see December sales for Pokemon, YW is becoming very popular among younger audience and Jinbanyan face is over a lot of products, this is something that just few brands can do, something like Kitty, Doraemon, Anpanman and of course Pikachu.
So I'm not sure this brand is gonna burned off in a couple of years as someone predicts. L5 already had a "strong" brand, Inazuma 11, but it was as strong and especially popular as YW is at the moment.