Here are some console numbers at the same time of the year.
2009 Holiday Season:
Nov 2-8 - Wii: 31,810, PS3: 48,925
Nov 9-15 - Wii: 26,764, PS3: 38,498
Nov 16-22 - Wii: 32,844, PS3: 34,752
Nov 23-29 - Wii: 46,673, PS3: 46,558
Nov 30 - Dec 6 - Wii: 106,555 (NSMB Wii released), PS3: 57,782
Dec 7-13 - Wii: 135,898, PS3: 75,086
Dec 14-20 - Wii: 91,915, PS3: 237,086 (FF13 released)
Dec 21-27 - Wii: 215,129, PS3: 110,519
Dec 28- Jan 3 - Wii: 163,855, PS3: 114,368
Jan 4-10 (2010) - Wii: 76,772, PS3: 61,591
Jan 11-17 - Wii: 57,349, PS3: 35,156
Jan 18-24 - Wii: 45,167, PS3: 26,966
Jan 25-31 - Wii: 42,309, PS3: 34,431
2010 Holiday Season:
Nov 1-7 - Wii: 11,521, PS3: 23,524
Nov 8-14 - Wii: 39,308, PS3: 21,114
Nov 15-21 - Wii: 27,851, PS3: 29,058
Nov 22-28 - Wii: 41,267, PS3: 68,840 (GT5 released)
Nov 29 - Dec 5 - Wii: 56,095, PS3: 41,760
Dec 6-12 - Wii: 79,424, PS3: 41,882
Dec 13-19 - Wii: 99,681, PS3: 49,515
Dec 20-26 - Wii: 131,761, PS3: 64,228
Dec 27-Jan 2 - Wii: 77,307, PS3: 76,422
Jan 3-9 - Wii: 56,547, PS3: 59,612
Jan 10-16 - Wii: 21,291, PS3: 33,190
Jan 17-23 - Wii: 14,547, PS3: 23,792
Jan 24-30 - Wii: 19,448, PS3: 25,149
2011 Holiday Season:
Oct 31-Nov 6 - Wii: 11,725, PS3: 26,966
Nov 7-13 - Wii: 11,782, PS3: 22,919
Nov 14-20 - Wii: 13,613, PS3: 41,069
Nov 21-27 - Wii: 20,148, PS3: 34,031
Nov 28- Dec 4 - Wii: 31,071, PS3: 40,668
Dec 5-11 - Wii: 46,018, PS3: 44,661
Dec 12-18 - Wii: 60,916, PS3: 65,119 (FF13-2)
Dec 19-25 - Wii: 91,176, PS3: 75,943
Dec 26- Jan 1 - Wii: 33,208, PS3: 67,199
Jan 2-8 - Wii: 49,525, PS3: 74,459
Jan 9-15 - Wii: 14,179, PS3: 20,332
Jan 16-22 - Wii: 10,173, PS3: 21,155
Jan 23-29 - Wii: 10,396, PS3: 22,924
2012 Holiday Season
Oct 29 - Nov 4 - Wii: 3,806, PS3: 21,310, PSV: 4,842
Nov 5-11 - Wii: 2,921, PS3: 18,043, PSV: 4,021
Nov 12-18 - Wii: 3,001, PS3: 17,035, PSV: 13,091
Nov 19-25 - Wii: 3,590, PS3: 34,167, PSV: 9,712
Nov 26- Dec 2 - Wii: 5,550, PS3: 29,809, PSV: 11,066
Dec 3-9 - Wii: 6,811, PS3: 37,636 (launch of Wii U), PSV: 11,039
Dec 10-16 - Wii: 10,346, PS3: 42,976, PSV: 14,446
Dec 17-23 - Wii: 13,049, PS3: 47,626, PSV: 21,266
Dec 24-30 - Wii: 6,741, PS3: 53,222, PSV: 20,492
Dec 31-Jan 6 - Wii: 5,632, PS3: 64,352, PSV: 33,309
Jan 7-13 - Wii: 1,873, PS3: 22,991, PSV: 11,088
Jan 14-20 - Wii: 2,199, PS3: 19,697, PSV: 9,036
Jan 21-27 - Wii: 2,093, PS3: 18,322, PSV: 9,748
2013 Holiday Season (So Far):
Oct 28- Nov 3 - WiiU: 40,118, PSV: 28,219 (Wii U bundles released)
Nov 4-10 - WiiU: 17,737, PSV: 21,764
Nov 11-17 - WiiU: 15,906, PSV: 88,522 (God Eater 2 + Vita TV)
Nov 18-24 - WiiU: 21,002, PSV: 28,912 (Super Mario 3D World released)
Nov 25- Dec 1 - WiiU: 28,518, PSV: 25,593
Here's some rough estimates of my own based on those numbers.
Basically looking at 2010-2011 (2009 had New Super Mario Bros Wii, which seemed to do a lot by itself)
2010 Wii: Nov 1st week 11,725, Nov - Jan 9 - 620,762 (10 weeks) - ratio 52.94
2011 Wii: Nov 1st week 11,521, Nov - Jan 8 - 369,182 (10 weeks) - ratio 32.04
Let's compare that to Sony's PS3 for 2010-2012.
2010: Nov 1st week - 23,524, Nov - Jan 9 - 475,955 (10 weeks) - ratio 20.23
2011: Nov 1st week - 26,966, Nov - Jan 8 - 493,034 (10 weeks) - ratio 18.28
2012: Nov 1st week - 21,310, Nov - Jan 6 - 366,176 (10 weeks) - ratio 17.18
Here's the Vita:
2012: Nov 1st week - 4,842, Nov - Jan 6 - 143,284 (10 weeks) - ratio 29.59
2013: Nov. 1st week - 28,219, Nov - Dec 1 - 193,010 (5 weeks)
WiiU
2013: Nov 1st week - 40,118 b/c of bundle, let's use the 17,737 number of the week after,
Nov - Dec 1 - 123,281 (5 weeks)
Looking at the numbers above, the Wii U in 2013 should at least beat the Vita in 2012 assuming something major doesn't happen. Nintendo clearly gets a bigger boost historically in the holiday season than Sony. Sony gets a boost, but they seem to be generally more consistent throughout the rest of the year instead.
The difference these past 2 weeks is somewhat similar to the bumps received in 2010-2011, (2010 Wii - 48%, 2011 Wii - 54%, 2013 Wii U - 35% - altho last week was 3D World's release).
Now let's say we have a bump of 25%, 30%, or 35% each week going into xmas for the WiiU (25% is much less than the Wii in 2010-2011).
Nov 18-24 - WiiU: 21,002
Nov 25- Dec 1 - WiiU: 28,518
Predictions with 25%, 30%, and 35% increase each week:
Dec 2-8 - WiiU: 35,647, 37,073, 38,499
Dec 9-14 - WiiU: 44,559, 48,195, 51,974
Dec 15-21 - WiiU: 55,699, 62,654, 70,164
Dec 22-28 - WiiU: 69,624, 81,450, 94,722
Total units sold in 4 weeks of December with those %ages: 205,529, 229,372, 255,359
The question is though what software would actually sell with these units apart from the bundled ones? Mario 3D World? Pikmin 3? Taiko?
That basically puts a bunch of people owning Mario Bros U and Wii Party, and potentially Mario 3D World (and hopefully something else...).