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[MasterSheen]

Controller screen
Between two generations
Quite good first party offerings
Bad third party support
No advertizing
Haunted by upcoming more powerful consoles
Failure...

Dreamcast? Or WiiU?

Difference: Nintendo still has plenty of money.

 

[Sandfox]

Difference: Nintendo still has plenty of money.

And it also doesn't have to deal with the PS2 lol

 

[Mr Swine]

Controller screen
Between two generations
Quite good first party offerings
Bad third party support
No advertizing
Haunted by upcoming more powerful consoles
Failure...

Dreamcast? Or WiiU?

Iwata: Ok everyone, pack your bags. Neogaf user Fredrik has pointed out that Wii U is DC level of fail. Time to shut down Nintendo
Iwata: "Cries"

 

[donny2112]

Where's Nintendo's 2K Sports?

 

[Pancakes R Us]

It's too early to call Wii U anything.

Except for a failure that's been waiting to happen for a while. I kid, only slightly. I've just not been impressed by the system at all, and hope the dismal reception the system has received (and I expect will continue to receive beyond the Nintendo faithful, which is getting smaller and smaller as a group) gives the company a proper kick up the arse.

 

[Nirolak]

Where's Nintendo's 2K Sports?

You know I just realized they actually aren't putting out a Wii U version of MLB2K13 despite having one of NBA2K13.

 

[Ruud_Luiten]

Where are the good first party offerings? I'm not trying to be cheeky or passive aggressive here.

DreamCast had plenty!

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

WiiU is on life support.....PS4 going for the kill.

In all seriousness, nintendo should release some games and advertise the thing. It definitely has a lot of potential but any nintendo console has lots of potential.

 

[Road]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware -
[WIU] Hardware -
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y -
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 -
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf -
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII -
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 -
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U -
[WIU] Nintendo Land -

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: February, 13th 08:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu or Media Create first make their weekly sales public)

Rules:

• The year of 2013 started on 2012-12-31 and will end on 2013-12-29
• The official yearly hardware sales will be the from Famitsu report for the 2013 market; in the absence of the report, the sum of weekly hardware sales.
• The official yearly software sales will be from the Famitsu top 100; in the absence of the top 100, the total will be based on the weekly top 30 sales.
• Any item missing in your prediction will be considered as if you had predicted zero for its sales.

 

[serplux]

EDIT: Wrong...thinking? I was pretty sleepy and it's immortalized anyways, so...

 

[djtiesto]

Source of this gif?

 

[Mpl90]

[3DS] Hardware - 19.5 Million
[WIU] Hardware - 12.3 Million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 6.2 Million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.8 Million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 4.9 Million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.4 Million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.4 Million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 3.3 Million
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 9.7 Million

What am I looking at. Some of these numbers would be good for Japanese estimates...if Japan were as big as 2/3 of the world :lol

EDIT: Ah, it seemed there was something wrong XD

 

[test_account]

Why asking, then? Of course it did not mean that they developed the game explicitely to not sell. But he meant that they developed the game without considering potential appeal in the market. Maybe it's more Sony's fault, but they is not that great either.

A rhetorical question is used to make a point, it is not really a question because one doesnt expect a reply to it. The point was that i think it is silly to say that they tried to fail. I'm pretty sure they tried to make the game in the way they thought was the best way to do it. I could just have said that right out, but i wanted to go with a rhetorical question instead. The reason why i said "both yes and no" when you asked me if it was a serious question was this: the "no" part was to that i didnt except a reply (since it is a rhetorical question) and the "yes" part was that he could answer to elaborate on his point more =)

I doubt that they didnt do any focus testing at all by the way. Many games sells below expectations, but i think focus testing is done in most cases, especially for bigger budget games. One cant know for sure exactly how good a game will sell even when doing focus testing. Smash Bros has also shown that there is appeal in the market for a mascot fighter.

 

[Road]

[3DS] Hardware - 19.5 Million
[WIU] Hardware - 12.3 Million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 6.2 Million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.8 Million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 4.9 Million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.4 Million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.4 Million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 3.3 Million
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 9.7 Million

This must be a joke, but just in case, the predictions are only for Japan, both hardware and software.

Edit: stealth edited while I was holding my laughter.

 

[serplux]

What am I looking at. Some of these numbers would be good for Japanese estimates...if Japan were as big as 2/3 of the world :lol

EDIT: Ah, it seemed there was something wrong XD

Lol, I was doing worldwide estimates for something else. My bad.

 

[grimshawish]

I know at least one of these numbers will have people calling me barking
EDIT: Mine are for Japan


Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 10M
[WIU] Hardware - 2.2M
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 6M
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 5.5M
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.6M
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2.1M
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 0.8M
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.4M
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 0.35M

 

[Baki]

[3DS] Hardware - 6,100,000
[WIU] Hardware - 890,000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4,400,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3,300,000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1,150,000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1,300,000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1,010,000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 550,000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 630,000

I know at least one of these numbers will have people calling me barking
EDIT: Mine are for Japan


Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 10M
[WIU] Hardware - 2.2M
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 6M
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 5.5M
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.6M
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2.1M
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 0.8M
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.4M
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 0.35M

10M for 3DS? 2.2M for WiiU?

You do realise that NDS record was 7M! and 2.2M was the PSP YTD for 2010 (e.g. its unlikely that WiiU will unlikely do a number like that even with a turnaround - which would come after the price drop in summer time!)

 

[Road]

I know at least one of these numbers will have people calling me barking

You mean this one?

[3DS] Hardware - 10M

It will ruin your entire set in the absolute ranking, even if the 3DS does something as incredible as 7 million. Might not be much of a problem for percentages.

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1,150,000

And, you. It's February 6th and New Leaf has already sold 500k.

Well, I guess, statistically, it is more likely than 10 million 3DS...

 

[Busaiku]

I wonder how far Fantasy Life could've gotten if initial supplies weren't so limited.
Is it on eShop?

 

[metalslimer]

I know at least one of these numbers will have people calling me barking
EDIT: Mine are for Japan


Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 10M
[WIU] Hardware - 2.2M
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 6M
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 5.5M
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.6M
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2.1M
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 0.8M
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.4M
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 0.35M

Ok so the 3DS is number is basically impossible, but phew I almost fell for it till I saw you predicted Pokemon to sell 6 million in the fastest time ever along with MH4 selling that much extremely fast with a userbase half the size of DS by the end of the year (conservative estimate). I really would like an explanation as to how you think either of those 3 is possible.

 

[grimshawish]

You do realise that NDS record was 7M! and 2.2M was the PSP YTD for 2010 (e.g. its unlikely that WiiU will unlikely do a number like that even with a turnaround - which would come after the price drop in summer time!)

Am basing WiiU numbers on my own assumptions; wasn't sure what to put so went with that.

10M is a high estimate for 3DS but when did DS have a year comparable to this?
Maybe am over-estimating the number of people who haven't made the jump to 3DS yet.

3DS will break 7M this year at least. That much is assured imo.


No fun to predict if you don't get to go crazy!
I don't think my 3DS assumptions are that mad considering the releases and also possible other releases this year. We'll see.

Ok so the 3DS is number is basically impossible, but phew I almost fell for it till I saw you predicted Pokemon to sell 6 million in the fastest time ever along with MH4 selling that much extremely fast with a userbase half the size of DS by the end of the year (conservative estimate). I really would like an explanation as to how you think either of those 3 is possible.

3D Pokemon.
Monster Hunter 4.
Mixture of other releases.

PSP is dead and Nintendo has a unified platform ready to expand its market share. The fact the userbase is lower than the DS's is exactly why I expect it to rise so sharply.

 

[metalslimer]

Am basing WiiU numbers on my own assumptions; wasn't sure what to put so went with that.

10M is a high estimate for 3DS but when did DS have a year comparable to this?
Maybe am over-estimating the number of people who haven't made the jump to 3DS yet.

3DS will break 7M this year at least. That much is assured imo.


No fun to predict if you don't get to go crazy!
I don't think my 3DS assumptions are that mad considering the releases and also possible other releases this year. We'll see.

Your 3DS number isn't the insane one. How is Pokemon going to sell 6 million in 3 months?

3D Pokemon.
Monster Hunter 4.
Mixture of other releases.

PSP is dead and Nintendo has a unified platform ready to expand its market share. The fact the userbase is lower than the DS's is exactly why I expect it to rise so sharply.

The 3DS does not have PS2 level backing from Japanese 3rd parties. The PS3/WiiU/other consoles will still get support which will take away from the 3DS

 

[grimshawish]

Your 3DS number isn't the insane one. How is Pokemon going to sell 6 million in 3 months?

3 Million week one. 3 Million up to and during the holiday.
This was the one I was most sure of.

 

[metalslimer]

3 Million week one. 3 Million up to and during the holiday.
This was the one I was most sure of.

I'm not doubting it will hit 6 million at some point, but to hit it that fast would is unprecedented. Hell even with big releases, you realize these big franchises compete for people's money?Also you're predicting Pokemon to be the highest selling game of all time with pokemon legs.

 

[serplux]

Let's do it for real, this time:

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 6.8 Million
[WIU] Hardware - 2.1 Million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4.0 Million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3.4 Million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2.2 Million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.4 Million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.5 Million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.3 Million
[WIU] Nintendo Land -[/B] - 0.7 Million

 

[farnham]

Wiiu only to sell 2 million with wiifit, wii party and possibly mario kart comming out?

 

[metalslimer]

Wiiu only to sell 2 million with wiifit, wii party and possibly mario kart comming out?

Wii U will honestly be good to get 2 million with how bad most of this year is going to be until the bigger games hit.

 

[serplux]

Ok so the 3DS is number is basically impossible, but phew I almost fell for it till I saw you predicted Pokemon to sell 6 million in the fastest time ever along with MH4 selling that much extremely fast with a userbase half the size of DS by the end of the year (conservative estimate). I really would like an explanation as to how you think either of those 3 is possible.

Didn't the DS sell about 9 or so million in its best year? It's probably not going to happen again. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl did sell 5 million in 3 months, so it's not impossible, but still pretty unlikely (although maybe the novelty factor of 3D Pokemon will increase sales).

 

[electroplankton]

3 Million week one. 3 Million up to and during the holiday.
This was the one I was most sure of.

3mln week one is impossible. BW did less with all the userbase on board.

 

[Road]

Some past numbers:

2006 Animal Crossing Wild World: 2.5 million

2010 Pokemon Black / White (from September): 4.9 million

2010 Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (from December): 3.5 million

2006 DS: 8.9 million
2007 DS: 7.1 million
2012 3DS: 5.6 million
Chart comparing their sales: http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/...5/gr-2/hf/sys-3/DS/date-3/2007-01-01/gr-3/hf/

2007 Wii: 3.6 million
2007 PS3: 1.2 million
2002 GC: 1.0 millon
2012 Vita: 0.7 million

3mln week one is impossible. BW did less with all the userbase on board.

It was impossible for BW to hit 3 million since only 2.9 million were shipped. =P

X/Y could do 3 million first week if it is released on a Thursday.

 

[grimshawish]

3mln week one is impossible. BW did less with all the userbase on board.

Which is why it would drive 3DS sales too.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wiiu only to sell 2 million with wiifit, wii party and possibly mario kart comming out?

A steady stream of games is needed, not a transient spike.

 

[electroplankton]

Which is why it would drive 3DS sales too.

No way. X/Y will sell really well over time, but it won't debut so high. BW had one generation, one third version, one remake, and many spin-offs to set the stage (also almost 30mln of userbase) and still it couldn't sell so well. And if Nintendo had problems in producing cards for AC, there's the possibility that X/Y will also have supply problems.

 

[metalslimer]

Which is why it would drive 3DS sales too.

You're overestimating the amount of Pokemon fans that don't already own the system. You're basically thinking there is a large portion of Dragon Quest, Pokemon, Monster Hunter fans that don't own the system and will all buy into it this year.

 

[test_account]

Wiiu only to sell 2 million with wiifit, wii party and possibly mario kart comming out?

At the current pace, the WiiU will be around 500k YTD in July sometime. Then it needs to sell over 80k 65k a week in average for the rest of the year to reach more than 2 million. Depends if the upcoming games have that much selling power on the hardware or not, who knows.

EDIT: It is more like 65k, not 80k as i first wrote.

 

[Sandfox]

No way. X/Y will sell really well over time, but it won't debut so high. BW had one generation, one third version, one remake, and many spin-offs to set the stage (also almost 30mln of userbase) and still it couldn't sell so well. And if Nintendo had problems in producing cards for AC, there's the possibility that X/Y will also have supply problems.

Doesn't that really depend on if it uses the same special carts/memory as Animal Crossing though?

 

[grimshawish]

No way. X/Y will sell really well over time, but it won't debut so high. BW had one generation, one third version, one remake, and many spin-offs to set the stage (also almost 30mln of userbase) and still it couldn't sell so well. And if Nintendo had problems in producing cards for AC, there's the possibility that X/Y will also have supply problems.

Only if it has special cards like AC. Its not all 3DS games.

 

[electroplankton]

Doesn't that really depend on if it uses the same special carts/memory as Animal Crossing though?

Probably, but still Nintendo had a lot of supply issues with all previous mainline Pokémon games. Anyway, 3mln in one week (which means in two days) is really an out-of-reach prediction.

 

[MasterSheen]

DS had Pokemon, NSMB, FF3r, continued sales from ACWW and the Brain Training games, Lite revision, and much more in 2006. 3DS will do DS 2007 numbers at best.

 

[Jamix012]

DS had Pokemon, NSMB, FF3r, continued sales from ACWW and the Brain Training games, Lite revision, and much more in 2006. 3DS will do DS DS 2007 numbers at best.

3DS has Pokemon, Monster Hunter 4, DQ7 and continues sales from AC:NL, MH3G and the Mario pair. Also less direct competition (though perhaps this is made up for by mobile gaming.) I'd say the DS certainly does have the upperhand but it wouldn't surprise me if the 3DS did outdo it. One more major announcement (perhaps Smash 3DS?) for this year would turn the tides towards 3DS in my view.

 

[KingSnake]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

[3DS] Hardware - 7.2 Million
[WIU] Hardware - 2.7 Million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 5.1 Million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.9 Million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.9 Million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.5 Million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1 Million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.2 Million
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 0.5 Million

 

[Mr Swine]

Here is my prediction

[3DS] Hardware - 6.8 million
[WIU] Hardware - 3.4 million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 2.9 million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.6 million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2.1 million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.5 million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.3 million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 865k
[WIU] Nintendo Land -532k

 

[Baconsammy]

You know I just realized they actually aren't putting out a Wii U version of MLB2K13 despite having one of NBA2K13.

And NBA2K13 sold so poorly that they're not even giving Wii U users free updates that other consoles are getting. I wouldnt expect to see much more from them on Wii U.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Posted?

Week aligned:

Launch aligned:

Launch aligned cumulative:

 

[Road]

Here is my prediction

[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 2.9 million

Bomba. iOS port to be released next year.

2006 Diamond / Pearl (from Sep. 28) - 4.3 million
2002 Ruby / Sapphire (from Nov. 11) - 3.2 million

Unless you're betting on a release delayed to November/December. =P

 

[farnham]

At the current pace, the WiiU will be around 500k YTD in July sometime. Then it needs to sell over 80k a week in average for the rest of the year to reach more than 2 million. Depends if the upcoming games have that much selling power on the hardware or not, who knows.

Wii fit and wii party u are launching in a pretty quick succession. Wii fit sold 3 million wii party did 2 million in japan alone. Pikmin 3 also was pretty successful in japan (500kish) compared to the west. Also there is game and wario.. I think up to summer they have a steady stream of releases.

 

[Kiriku]

Posted?

Week aligned:
http://i.imgur.com/GLJnf4o.jpg

Launch aligned:
http://i.imgur.com/7M3cndz.jpg

Launch aligned cumulative:
http://i.imgur.com/34gBSO5.jpg

I was looking at the graphs going 'hey, Wii U is doing pretty well!' until I realized it was the Wii.

 

[Apophis2036]

Is Iwata really happy with WiiU selling 12k per week so close after launch when it should be selling much larger numbers ?.

I found his insistence with regards to not price cutting the system quite arrogant at the last Nintendo financial results meeting.

Hardware needs software in order to shift at the end of the day and i don't see anything on the horizon that is really going to spark sales by any significant margin. Im sure Game & Wario, Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 will sell nicely to existing customers but are those sorts of games going to make Japanese customers go out and buy the system ?, im not so sure and then they have nothing until Winter.

Not looking good at all for WiiU without a sizable price cut, a total rethink on marketing and release dates for the exciting software released.

3D Mario, Mario Kart, Yoshi and Wind Waker HD will shift a lot of hardware but those will not be released until late 2013 at the earliest.

 

[test_account]

Wii fit and wii party u are launching in a pretty quick succession. Wii fit sold 3 million wii party did 2 million in japan alone. Pikmin 3 also was pretty successful in japan (500kish) compared to the west. Also there is game and wario.. I think up to summer they have a steady stream of releases.

Are Wii Fit U and Wii Party U set to be released before this summer? Game & Wario is probably coming out in March as planned, i dont know when Pikmin 3 is out (probably before July though ).

And a correction to what i said earlier. It is more like 60k - 65k each week in average, not 80k as i first said, sorry. I first divided 2 million on 25 weeks, i forgot to subtract what it could have sold until July (about 500k at the current pace).

 

[?oe?oe]

I found his insistence with regards to not price cutting the system quite arrogant at the last Nintendo financial results meeting.

Hardware needs software in order to shift at the end of the day and i don't see anything on the horizon that is really going to spark sales by any significant margin. Im sure Game & Wario, Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 will sell nicely to existing customers but are those sorts of games going to make Japanese customers go out and buy the system ?, im not so sure and then they have nothing until Winter.

Not looking good at all for WiiU without a sizable price cut, a total rethink on marketing and release dates for the exciting software released.

What's a price cut going to do without largely compelling software? Software sells hardware, you said it yourself. Hardware doesn't sell hardware. I would expect a price cut in the second half of the year if one were to come.