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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2014 (Dec 15 - Dec 21)

Darius

Banned
I think he means that FFXIII-3 is a own game while PSP2: Infinity is an enhanched version of PSP2. But i think it shows more that it comes down to the games themself rather than how big potential the IPs have. I'm positive that FF15 will sell a lot more than what FFXIII-3 did at least. And i think a Phantasy Star Portable 3 would have a good chance to sell more than what Phantasy Star Nova did.

Selling less than 3 times more than Lightning Returns will be considered as a catastrophic disaster, simply outselling LR shouldn´t even be in question. With my comparison I simply pointed out that just branding your game FF isn´t enough, and it seems even beeing a sequel to a mainline entry wasn´t enough in Lightning Returns case. Mainline entries (the first numerical entries) are quite different in investment, perception and success expectations. And about Phantasy Star portable 3, PSNova basically is PSp3, and anyway if a hypothetical "real" PSp3 launched under the same circumstances and same day and date I doubt it would have made a big difference. While a hypothetical "new" PSp3 releasing in 1-3 years is a completely different matter.
 
I made it quite obvious what game I was refering to, ignoring the main game in favour of just an update of the same game is just beeing biased.

I was waiting for that to come out :p

You don't have pull the "deflection" or "biased" cards in every debate you know. It's all just part of discussion ^^

But regardless, I got your point. And I agree with you;: Final Fantasy has been on a decline for a while now; and slapping the name on a product is not the be-all-end-all to making a spinoff a success.

It certainly gives a game an advantage, though.

For a very broad comparison, look at Lord of Arcana's sales. Square Enix hunting game launched at a time when Monster Hunter was on the platform and clones were flourishing (same year as God Eater and less than 12 months after Phantasy Star Portable 2). Lifetime sales didn't even reach Explorer's FW sales.

I think ignoring the pull of one of Japan's most historic IP's has had on Explorer's sales - even if Lightning Returns didn't sell as well as PSP2 - is really not looking at what's actually happened here.

And that's not to say FFE's sales are either good or bad. I think they're pretty much what you'd expect from a Final Fantasy take on Monster Hunter, give or take a little.

And yes, Phantasy Star Nova's sales are poor. I've never really thought otherwise. I don't think it's indicative of a poor TGS 2014 for Vita though - as you seem to be suggesting - as much as it is the competition for PSO2 effectively providing the same game for free (alongside a poorly-received demo that stunted a lot of potential).

Either way, the point is, there's more than just one factor at play here.
 

Oregano

Member
But on the publisher side, the setback of trying to sell uninteresting versions of games can also be huge. There are much more examples of publishers whose series collapsed because of unappealing installments than of platforms where games stopped selling because of one or two flops.

I am sure Japanese Vita owners are interested in more support from Bandai Namco, but I am not sure they are willing to be blackmailed into buying a game they don't want for that. It wouldn't end well regardless.

It's one of the realities of being distant second unfortunately. It would be especially silly when it was somewhat obvious they would do a Burst release because every game in the genre gets enhanced rereleases now.

EDIT:
That's an inevitability anyway, once the 4DS is announced, I foresee plenty of "clincher" titles from the Vita to also suddenly have "4DS" written on their release plans. Possibly even WiiU depending on how literal Iwata was with his plans going forward. And I don't know how many people don't already own a 3DS along with their Vita, and how many won't just pick up the 4DS anyway on launch.

Publishers were still publishing a ton of PSP only games after the 3DS released and I expect they'll go that route again. The amount of PSP games that went to 3DS can be counted on one hand.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I think some of you are overthinking things a lot.

Consumers don't look at sales charts and decide whether to "punish" or "support" a publisher while running game theory charts. They just buy the games they want and don't buy the games they don't want.

Rage Burst will sell as many copies as there are satisfied fans of the series who feel it's worth buying plus any potential new customers interested in trying it out.
 

Darius

Banned
I was waiting for that to come out :p

You don't have pull the "deflection" or "biased" cards in every debate you know. It's all just part of discussion ^^

But regardless, I got your point. And I agree with you;: Final Fantasy has been on a decline for a while now; and slapping the name on a product is not the be-all-end-all to making a spinoff a success.

It certainly gives a game an advantage, though.

For a very broad comparison, look at Lord of Arcana's sales. Square Enix hunting game launched at a time when Monster Hunter was on the platform and clones were flourishing (same year as God Eater and less than 12 months after Phantasy Star Portable 2). Lifetime sales didn't even reach Explorer's FW sales.

I think ignoring the pull of one of Japan's most historic IP's has had on Explorer's sales - even if Lightning Returns didn't sell as well as PSP2 - is really not looking at what's actually happened here.

And that's not to say FFE's sales are either good or bad. I think they're pretty much what you'd expect from a Final Fantasy take on Monster Hunter, give or take a little.

And yes, Phantasy Star Nova's sales are poor. I've never really thought otherwise. I don't think it's indicative of a poor TGS 2014 for Vita though - as you seem to be suggesting - as much as it is the competition for PSO2 effectively providing the same game for free (alongside a poorly-received demo that stunted a lot of potential).

Either way, the point is, there's more than just one factor at play here.

Good to know that you expected to be called out. ;)
The comparison was between a well established IP in the "Hunting" genre (Phantasy Star) and a low budget spinoff of Final Fantasy.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Selling less than 3 times more than Lightning Returns will be considered as a catastrophic disaster, simply outselling LR shouldn´t even be in question. With my comparison I simply pointed out that just branding your game FF isn´t enough, and it seems even beeing a sequel to a mainline entry wasn´t enough in Lightning Returns case. Mainline entries (the first numerical entries) are quite different in investment, perception and success expectations. And about Phantasy Star portable 3, PSNova basically is PSp3, and anyway if a hypothetical "real" PSp3 launched under the same circumstances and same day and date I doubt it would have made a big difference. While a hypothetical "new" PSp3 releasing in 1-3 years is a completely different matter.
Yeah, i saw your answer just after i had posted that, seeing that you ment something else, so i edited it out a bit later and commented on something else instead that i didnt get around to comment on earlier =)
 

Oregano

Member
I think some of you are overthinking things a lot.

Consumers don't look at sales charts and decide whether to "punish" or "support" a publisher while running game theory charts. They just buy the games they want and don't buy the games they don't want.

Rage Burst will sell as many copies as there are satisfied fans of the series who feel it's worth buying plus any potential new customers interested in trying it out.

Well I don't know how much you know about Japanese culture... ;)

FAKE EDIT: I think the people who bought God Eater 2 are going to be quite dedicated fans and I doubt they'll care much that they promised not to do a Burst update.
 

Darius

Banned
PSV was tracking better in the first six months this year compared to 2013 by 19%.

Code:
week1-26: 
2014:646.497 
2013:540.266

Something that continued to be the case in the 3rd quarter of the year that ended in September. 2014 sales including 3rd quarter rose by 41% compared to week 1-26, while last year it rose by 31%.

In 2014 PSV sold 28% more than last year in week 1-39 (1Q+2Q+3Q).

Code:
week1-39: 
2014: 914.767 (41%) 
2013: 710.098 (31%)

The last quarter surprisingly reversed the advantage and we ended up seeing PSV selling less or barely the same. It needs to sell ~100k units next week (52) just to close the gap.

Code:
week51/52: 
2014: 1.125.075 (74%)  
2013: 1.224.532 (126%)

The interesting part are the percentages. Compared to the first half of the year (ytd) in 2013 PSV managed to more than double the sales (126%), while in 2014 it looks like to end at adding under 80% to the 1st half of year sales.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here a comparison between 3Q and 4Q (October, November, December). Which I find to be the most important one.

Code:
third quarter:
2014: 268.270
2013: 169.832 

fourth quarter:
2014: 210.308 (-21% to 0%) 
2013: 514.434 (202%)

While in 2013 there was a rise in the 4th quarter by 202% compared to the 3rd quarter, this year we are looking at basically no increase at all. Despite having seen a bigger increase than last year in every single quarter (1Q-3Q) this year until now.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Yeah I feel the Vita has largely saturated the market for the type of content it has.

While there is a lot of it, there isn't a huge breadth to what's releasing on Vita or any upcoming series that are so big they're likely to attract new people.

So at this point we are largely looking at sequels to series that are already on the platform or games that appeal to the people who are most likely own it for similar games.

Like as a serious question what are the upcoming Vita games that would even appeal to a new audience or at least a broader one?
 

Oregano

Member
I think if Square Enix is serious about supporting it with original content we'll see an increase. Especially if FFX-3 is a Vita game.

Also Monster Hunter 5 will take the platform to new heights
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I think if Square Enix is serious about supporting it with original content we'll see an increase. Especially if FFX-3 is a Vita game.

Also Monster Hunter 5 will take the platform to new heights
I think if FFX-3 ever existed it doesn't anymore, and is Mevius instead.

They have Kitase and Nojima on it, it's a large internal team of 1st Production Department staff (and the FFXIII/FFX people are the main unaccounted for staff at the moment), it's supposed to be a console level game with an ATB battle system, and structurally it sounds pretty similar to how X and XIII are set up.

We don't know who the director is yet, but if it's Toriyama that would pretty much deal the deal.

But on a broader level I do feel we are at the point where you would need big series to move units in a significant way.
 

Oregano

Member
I think if FFX-3 ever existed it doesn't anymore, and is Mevius instead.

They have Kitase and Nojima on it, it's a large internal team of 1st Production Department staff (and the FFXIII/FFX people are the main unaccounted for staff at the moment), it's supposed to be a console level game with an ATB battle system, and structurally it sounds pretty similar to how X and XIII are set up.

We don't know who the director is yet, but if it's Toriyama that would pretty much deal the deal.

But on a broader level I do feel we are at the point where you would need big series to move units in a significant way.

Well I thought Toriyama would be the director but he said his new game is being announced in 2015. It might be a case of semantics and/or mistranslation though.

It's also possible that Virtuous is doing the grunt work for the game.
 
<comparisons>

Yeah I feel the Vita has largely saturated the market for the type of content it has.

While there is a lot of it, there isn't a huge breadth to what's releasing on Vita or any upcoming series that are so big they're likely to attract new people.

So at this point we are largely looking at sequels to series that are already on the platform or games that appeal to the people who are most likely own it for similar games.

This is the problem I've had with what you've been saying, that you've seemed to be missing the point to and going down into bias-calling.

You're saying Vita is down YoY (it is) and it has taken Phantasy Star Nova down with it because of a lack of perceived support at TGS (which did happen) causing momentum to go and therefore hurting Phantasy Star.

I'm asking why the console's sales trajectory slowing would stop it selling the kind of software which has already been shown to sell well enough on it. Phantasy Star Nova is one of a sea of hunting games on Vita, many of which sold well in excess of what PSN's LTD sales will be

3DS is down YoY too. Pokemon & Youkai Watch seem to be as strong as ever.

Vita's hardware sales drop doesn't seem to be to the kind of levels where it would hurt a title to the extent you're suggesting either. It sold ~13k the week before Toukiden hit and that did a damn sight better than PSN (and LTD sales of the console were much lower too)

So I don't understand what the link in what you're saying here is?
 

Darius

Banned
This is the problem I've had with what you've been saying, that you've seemed to be missing the point to and going down into bias-calling.

You're saying Vita is down YoY (it is) and it has taken Phantasy Star Nova down with it because of a lack of perceived support at TGS (which did happen) causing momentum to go and therefore hurting Phantasy Star.

I'm asking why the console's sales trajectory slowing would stop it selling the kind of software which has already been shown to sell well enough on it. Phantasy Star Nova is one of a sea of hunting games on Vita, many of which sold well in excess of what PSN's LTD sales will be

3DS is down YoY too. Pokemon & Youkai Watch seem to be as strong as ever.

Vita's hardware sales drop doesn't seem to be to the kind of levels where it would hurt a title to the extent you're suggesting either. It sold ~13k the week before Toukiden hit and that did a damn sight better than PSN (and LTD sales of the console were much lower too)

So I don't understand what the link in what you're saying here is?

Maybe you should take a second look at the comparisons and comments in the very same post. Your point sounds like "Console A and Console B saw a decline therefore they are equal". How about considering the actual amount of units sold for a change? The comparisons show quite clear when the yoy increase stopped (4th Quarter, with September already starting to show signs of decline) and no it´s not normal that there isn´t an increase in sales in the 4th Quarter compared the 3rd Quarter of the same year.
 

Oregano

Member
Also since we've been mentioning Square Enix something interesting I noticed in Bravely Default's credits, under the section "Production Manager Division" there are these two credits:

Manager
Ryutaro Ichimura

Executive Producer
Yuu Miyake

Both of those guys are primarily involved with the Dragon Quest series. Ryutaro Ichimura is producer of DQVIII and IX(and a ton of other DQ games) and Yuu Miyake is the producer of Dragon Quest X.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Well I thought Toriyama would be the director but he said his new game is being announced in 2015. It might be a case of semantics and/or mistranslation though.

It's also possible that Virtuous is doing the grunt work for the game.

Toriyama being on Mevius is a fair guess. Other staff on the game worked on the XIII games and the 1st Production Department is hiring for mobile so... I think it's clear he isn't on a new console project.
 
Toriyama being on Mevius is a fair guess. Other staff on the game worked on the XIII games and the 1st Production Department is hiring for mobile so... I think it's clear he isn't on a new console project.

Perhaps he's working on more than one mobile project if what he said it's true (new game to be announced next year and stuff).
 

Oregano

Member
Toriyama being on Mevius is a fair guess. Other staff on the game worked on the XIII games and the 1st Production Department is hiring for mobile so... I think it's clear he isn't on a new console project.

It does make sense for him to be on it too. How is SE even structured nowadays, do we even know?
 

AniHawk

Member
the vita should be fine in japan (for exclusive content) and the west (if you want localizations of exclusive content) in 2015. it won't sell a million units, but it won't need to as long as software moves. it's going to start slipping away in 2016 though, as more companies start putting out ps4 versions of vita games or just making downports of ps4 games for vita simply because there's an audience there. and expect to see it happen increasingly for games you might have thought would be best suited for vita as well.

by 2017, the platform will be like the psp in 2013 or 2014, with very scattered releases and an occasional big seller. it should have a five year lifespan by some miracle, and it should at least outsell the gamecube with ease, and probably the n64 too, even if it doesn't outsell the saturn.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Well I thought Toriyama would be the director but he said his new game is being announced in 2015. It might be a case of semantics and/or mistranslation though.

It's also possible that Virtuous is doing the grunt work for the game.

It is plausibly not Toriyama's game.

That said, they did imply it was an internal game: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=906515

"- For a smartphone game, there is an unprecedented number of internal S-E developers working on this"
 

Spiegel

Member
the vita should be fine in japan (for exclusive content) and the west (if you want localizations of exclusive content) in 2015. it won't sell a million units, but it won't need to as long as software moves. it's going to start slipping away in 2016 though, as more companies start putting out ps4 versions of vita games or just making downports of ps4 games for vita simply because there's an audience there. and expect to see it happen increasingly for games you might have thought would be best suited for vita as well.

by 2017, the platform will be like the psp in 2013 or 2014, with very scattered releases and an occasional big seller. it should have a five year lifespan by some miracle, and it should at least outsell the gamecube with ease, and probably the n64 too, even if it doesn't outsell the saturn.

Vita should get a price drop in 2015. It has just entered its fourth year and still costs 20500Y with a cheaper screen than it had at launch. It could sell another million if it gets one.
3DS and Vita shouldn't cost more than 15000Y at this point.

For once I would like to see how well a Nintendo handheld could do at the GBA pricepoint (9800Y at launch!). Or at least the GBA SP pricepoint (12500Y).
 

Oregano

Member
It is plausibly not Toriyama's game.

That said, they did imply it was an internal game: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=906515

"- For a smartphone game, there is an unprecedented number of internal S-E developers working on this"

I meant it's possible they are doing the grunt work for X-3 because they played that for role for the HD remasters.

Vita should get a price drop in 2015. It has just entered its fourth year and still costs 20500Y with a cheaper screen than it had at launch. It could sell another million if it gets one.
3DS and Vita shouldn't cost more than 15000Y at this point.

For once I would like to see how well a Nintendo handheld could do at the GBA pricepoint (9800Y at launch!). Or at least the GBA SP pricepoint (12500Y).

I think everyone expected Nintendo would that with the 2DS but they obviously decided against it.

Also it's possible the Vita is only really profitable because it's still the same price.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
It was you that invented a goalpost. Who said that I was talking about a quarter at the beginning? Nintendo has always show strong sales on holidays, but it didn't change the fact that the last few years' financials were not good.

I don't see any importance in using the most recent quarter for any kind of analysis. The country I live in has been on recession, but the last quarter had a growth of 0.1%. The only people claiming it was a good result was the people discussing politics, trying to defend one political party. I am not here to discuss politics of game market, defending Nintendo or Sony.

Now you involved politics and all these from a single post completely irrelevant to what you headed the discussion.

Since you don't see any importance in using the most recent quarter for any kind of analysis I'm sure at the end of year 3DS will have a >50% YOY drop at hardware, Vita willl have its best year ever by far and next year what was posted from some that Vita like a new PSP will take 3DS place, will become a reality.
 
Maybe you should take a second look at the comparisons and comments in the very same post. Your point sounds like "Console A and Console B saw a decline therefore they are equal". How about considering the actual amount of units sold for a change? The comparisons show quite clear when the yoy increase stopped (4th Quarter, with September already starting to show signs of decline

I'll give this another try in the hopes that you just misunderstood what I was saying due to me wording the question poorly or something.

I see that Vita Q4 sales are down, you're right. And I see that you've correlated this with Sony's poor showing at TGS 2014, and said that an effect of these lowered sales is that Phantasy Star Nova underperformed:

Interesting how commited some are into downplaying PSNova when it comes to its quality and sales expectations. PSV as a whole is doing quite bad for a while now and that´s likely one of the most important reasons for its performance.

My question is: what's the reasoning behind this?

Vita has shown, everywhere from 18 months ago to 4 months ago that it can sell games in this genre better than Phantasy Star. Are you seriously suggesting that an erosion of momentum in the final quarter of a year has seriously killed 80,000-150,000 worth of potential sales for SEGA? Even given the fact that there are co-operative action games for Vita scheduled for 2015 that are likely to surpass PSN's poor performance?

I don't understand this at all. It might've slightly impacted sales, sure, but not to the extent you're suggesting.

and no it´s not normal that there isn´t an increase in sales in the 4th Quarter compared the 3rd Quarter of the same year.

By the way, just a humorous observation about this. 2012 Vita sales:

Q1: 202,504
Q2: 173,791
Q3: 177,881
Q4: 136,663

Given 3 years on the market and 2 of them have had Q4's weaker than Q3's, it seems it's actually the norm for this console.
 

Road

Member
FF4HoL first week: 120k
FFEx first week: 164k

There's no bigger proof the Japanese dedicated gaming industry is dying than seeing the threshold for success has been decreased from 300k to 160k.

Also,

Phantasy Star Online 2 accounts: 3.5 million (Japan/Southeast Asia)
Final Fantasy XIV-2 accounts: 2.5 million (Worldwide)

Phantasy > Fantasy. Thanks, Obama Lightning.
 

monpiece

Banned
Now you involved politics and all these from a single post completely irrelevant to what you headed the discussion.

Since you don't see any importance in using the most recent quarter for any kind of analysis I'm sure at the end of year 3DS will have a >50% YOY drop at hardware, Vita willl have its best year ever by far and next year what was posted from some that Vita like a new PSP will take 3DS place, will become a reality.

Is this what you were predicting for 3DS and Vita before the last quarter?
 

monpiece

Banned
I'll give this another try in the hopes that you just misunderstood what I was saying due to me wording the question poorly or something.

I see that Vita Q4 sales are down, you're right. And I see that you've correlated this with Sony's poor showing at TGS 2014, and said that an effect of these lowered sales is that Phantasy Star Nova underperformed:



My question is: what's the reasoning behind this?

Vita has shown, everywhere from 18 months ago to 4 months ago that it can sell games in this genre better than Phantasy Star. Are you seriously suggesting that an erosion of momentum in the final quarter of a year has seriously killed 80,000-150,000 worth of potential sales for SEGA? Even given the fact that there are co-operative action games for Vita scheduled for 2015 that are likely to surpass PSN's poor performance?

I don't understand this at all. It might've slightly impacted sales, sure, but not to the extent you're suggesting.



By the way, just a humorous observation about this. 2012 Vita sales:

Q1: 202,504
Q2: 173,791
Q3: 177,881
Q4: 136,663

Given 3 years on the market and 2 of them have had Q4's weaker than Q3's, it seems it's actually the norm for this console.

Not to mention that last Q4 Vita had Vita-2000 revision, that proved to be successful in Japan despite the complaints of no OLED screen in the west, and Vita TV that bumped the numbers up a bit before flatlining. It should be quite obvious that Q4 numbers of 2014 wouldn't match Q4 numbers of 2013 if Sony didn't do something special. And they didn't. Heck, even 3DS with a revision and a theorical better line-up than 2013 couldn't match 2013 holiday numbers.
 
with a poor Q4 line-up it is obvious PSV would have sold less than Q4 2013, GE2 + FFX HD

so obvious that someone still surprised and getting out the classic "Vita is doomed" when 3DS is 1,7mln less than last year, Q4 2014 down from Q4 2013 even with new models, Pokemon and God Watcher 2.5, and over 2mln down from 2012

but seems like 3DS is in good health.....
 

Vena

Member
Vita should get a price drop in 2015. It has just entered its fourth year and still costs 20500Y with a cheaper screen than it had at launch. It could sell another million if it gets one.
3DS and Vita shouldn't cost more than 15000Y at this point.

For once I would like to see how well a Nintendo handheld could do at the GBA pricepoint (9800Y at launch!). Or at least the GBA SP pricepoint (12500Y).

Can Sony/Vita even afford another price drop? How close to the edge on hardware profitability is the console? Does it have the software attach-rate to justify more price cuts and possible loss on hardware?

I always assumed the asinine reason for the memory cards was to try and curtail loss-leader strategies with the Vita's hardware and I'd have to wonder how much that has changed as even though hardware has gotten cheaper (new, cheaper models) to produce the Vita doesn't have the favor large scale production and has been getting a lot of price-cuts.
 

Takao

Banned
Vita has gotten 1 price cut in Japan and that price cut pretty much evened out to what was the then current western price.
 

Vena

Member
Vita has gotten 1 price cut in Japan and that price cut pretty much evened out to what was the then current western price.

Oh is it only one cut in Japan? I guess I'm not looking at it the right way then if the price there is not as bottomed out as it is in the States.
 
From the first page:

Does this means there is a possibility to get numbers from MC tomorrow?

with a poor Q4 line-up it is obvious PSV would have sold less than Q4 2013, GE2 + FFX HD

so obvious that someone still surprised and getting out the classic "Vita is doomed" when 3DS is 1,7mln less than last year, Q4 2014 down from Q4 2013 even with new models, Pokemon and God Watcher 2.5, and over 2mln down from 2012

but seems like 3DS is in good health.....

I think that it's more about expectations than everything else. At the beginning of the year, PSV was selling ok-ish, and people were expecting that the platform would have kept selling as well throughout the year; on the contrary, PSV tanked during the last months. Also, 3DS reached saturation, which of course is playing a role. 18m vs 3,5m... You can clearly see which one should have better growth potential.

3DS is in good health because it's the only platform that is selling, and software sales are making up for a large portion of total sales.
 

Darius

Banned
I know Vitas 2012 performance, but this was a period when it was completely falling apart, this isn´t something you can use as benchmark for a normal healthy development. Or do you consider it normal when the 4Q is by far the worst quarter of the year? lol You are actually confirming my point with this comparison.

with a poor Q4 line-up it is obvious PSV would have sold less than Q4 2013, GE2 + FFX HD

so obvious that someone still surprised and getting out the classic "Vita is doomed" when 3DS is 1,7mln less than last year, Q4 2014 down from Q4 2013 even with new models, Pokemon and God Watcher 2.5, and over 2mln down from 2012

but seems like 3DS is in good health.....


Beeing too incompetent to create incentives to sell your merchandise might be a reason for failing but not an excuse in my book.

The point you ignore is that the year on year comparison wasn´t even the most important one, the more interesting one is the comparison between this years 3rd quarter and 4th quarter. I hope you are honest enough to admit that having no increase in the 4th quarter is an anomaly for a healthy system.

About the 3DS and PSV "comparison", that´s the same backwards argumentation as before "Console A and Console B have a decline therefore they are equal." I already pointed out that you shouldn´t ignore the actual amount of units sold. As unhealthy as you want to imply the 3DS to be in Japan. It will end with over 3 million units this year. The comparison with PS2 clearly showed that it can´t be too bad.

LTD in its fourth year (cut off at week51 of respective years)
| 3DS| 17.628.715 (2014)
| PS2| 13.814.495 (2003)

YTD 4th year (cut off at week51 of respective years)
|3DS| 2.934.704 | (2014)
|PS2| 2.809.795 | (2003)

YTD 3rd year
|3DS| 4.722.616 | (2013)
|PS2| 3.732.020 | (2002)
|GBA| 3.613.269 (2003)
 

L~A

Member
This is the end of year / New Year holidays in Japan, and most people aren't working. There won't be any data this week. Earliest you can expect something is on Monday, from Famitsu (as shown in Road's post).

By the way, interesting stuff I found in last year's Week 52 thread:

7th / 8th Gen Yearly Performances (Famitsu):


By yearly sales:

1. DS (2006) 8,862,969
2. DS (2007) 7,143,702
3. 3DS (2012) 5,626,763
4. 3DS (2013) 4,931,509
5. 3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (launch / 44 weeks of data)
6. DS (2008) 4,029,804
7. DS (2009) 4,025,313
8. DS (2005) 4,002,871
9. WII (2007) 3,629,361
10. PSP (2008) 3,543,171
11. PSP (2007) 3,022,659
12. DS (2010) 2,963,709
13. WII (2008) 2,908,342
14. PSP (2010) 2,890,476
15. PSP (2009) 2,307,971
16. PSP (2005) 2,225,799
17. WII (2009) 1,975,178
18. PSP (2011) 1,960,177
19. PSP (2006) 1,946,911
20. WII (2010) 1,728,293
21. PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
22. PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
23. PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
24. PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
25. PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
26. PSV (2013) 1,197,980
27. DS (2004) 1,095,930 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
28. PS3 (2008) 991,303
29. WII (2006) 989,118 (launch / 5 weeks of data)
30. PSP (2012) 941,992
31. WII (2011) 937,451
32. WIU (2013) 880,088
33. PS3 (2013) 824,167
34. DS (2011) 711,204
35. PSV (2012) 674,365
36. WIU (2012) 638,339 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
37. WII (2012) 492,999
38. PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
39. PSP (2013) 429,393
40. PSV (2011) 402,794 (launch / 2 weeks of data)
41. PSP (2004) 339,944 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
42. 360 (2009) 331,706
43. 360 (2008) 317,859
44. 360 (2007) 257,841
45. 360 (2010) 208,790
46. 360 (2006) 208,697
47. 360 (2011) 114,075
48. 360 (2005) 81,770 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
49. WII (2013) 77,337
50. 360 (2012) 67,273
51. DS (2012) 28,627
52. 360 (2013) 19,548






By console:

360 (2005) 81,770 (5.1%) (launch / 3 weeks of data)
360 (2006) 208,697 (13.0%)
360 (2007) 257,841 (16.0%)
360 (2008) 317,859 (19.8%)
360 (2009) 331,706 (20.6%)
360 (2010) 208,790 (13.0%)
360 (2011) 114,075 (7.1%)
360 (2012) 67,273 (4.2%)
360 (2013) 19,548 (1.2%)
LTD: 1,607,559


PS3 (2006) 466,716 (4.9%) (launch / 8 weeks of data)
PS3 (2007) 1,206,347 (12.6%)
PS3 (2008) 991,303 (10.4%)
PS3 (2009) 1,727,041 (18.0%)
PS3 (2010) 1,558,480 (16.3%)
PS3 (2011) 1,467,261 (15.3%)
PS3 (2012) 1,327,185 (13.9%)
PS3 (2013) 824,167 (8.6%)
LTD: 9,568,500


WII (2006) 989,118 (7.8%) (launch / 5 weeks of data)
WII (2007) 3,629,361 (28.5%)
WII (2008) 2,908,342 (22.8%)
WII (2009) 1,975,178 (15.5%)
WII (2010) 1,728,293 (13.6%)
WII (2011) 937,451 (7.4%)
WII (2012) 492,999 (3.9%)
WII (2013) 77,337 (0.6%)
LTD: 12,738,079


WIU (2012) 638,339 (42.0%) (launch / 4 weeks of data)
WIU (2013) 880,088 (58.0%)
LTD: 1,518,427


By handheld:

DS (2004) 1,095,930 (3.3%) (launch / 4 weeks of data)
DS (2005) 4,002,871 (12.2%)
DS (2006) 8,862,969 (27.0%)
DS (2007) 7,143,702 (21.7%)
DS (2008) 4,029,804 (12.3%)
DS (2009) 4,025,313 (12.2%)
DS (2010) 2,963,709 (9.0%)
DS (2011) 711,204 (2.2%)
DS (2012) 28,627 (0.1%)
LTD: 32,864,129


PSP (2004) 339,944 (1.7%) (launch / 3 weeks of data)
PSP (2005) 2,225,799 (11.4%)
PSP (2006) 1,946,911 (9.9%)
PSP (2007) 3,022,659 (15.4%)
PSP (2008) 3,543,171 (18.1%)
PSP (2009) 2,307,971 (11.8%)
PSP (2010) 2,890,476 (14.7%)
PSP (2011) 1,960,177 (10.0%)
PSP (2012) 941,992 (4.8%)
PSP (2013) 429,393 (2.2%)
LTD: 19,608,493


3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (28.1%) (launch / 44 weeks of data)
3DS (2012) 5,626,763 (38.3%)
3DS (2013) 4,931,509 (33.6%)
LTD: 14,694,011


PSV (2011) 402,794 (17.7%) (launch / 2 weeks of data)
PSV (2012) 674,365 (29.6%)
PSV (2013) 1,197,980 (52.7%)
LTD: 2,275,139

So for this year, 3DS will most likely end up between PSP 2007 and 2008.

Real test will be early 2015.
 
At just above 3m, 3DS would have the 11th best YTD ever. Not bad after being 3rd, 4th and 5th only behind the DS. Also worth noticing how PSP surpassed the 3m mark only twice -at the height of its popularity, and Wii only once.
 

Yoshi

Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
So, 3DS will have to settle with spot number 11 and Nintendo will fail to obtain a stronghold for the complete top 10? Poor 3DS :(.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
FF4HoL first week: 120k
FFEx first week: 164k

There's no bigger proof the Japanese dedicated gaming industry is dying than seeing the threshold for success has been decreased from 300k to 160k.

Also,

Phantasy Star Online 2 accounts: 3.5 million (Japan/Southeast Asia)
Final Fantasy XIV-2 accounts: 2.5 million (Worldwide)

Phantasy > Fantasy. Thanks, Obama Lightning.

Isn't PSO2 free to play?
 

monpiece

Banned
I think that it's more about expectations than everything else. At the beginning of the year, PSV was selling ok-ish, and people were expecting that the platform would have kept selling as well throughout the year; on the contrary, PSV tanked during the last months. Also, 3DS reached saturation, which of course is playing a role. 18m vs 3,5m... You can clearly see which one should have better growth potential.

3DS is in good health because it's the only platform that is selling, and software sales are making up for a large portion of total sales.

People were also expecting some continued support during the holidays. It is not easy to compete against all the megatons that are released to holidays, and Vita Q4 line-up was its worst in 2014.

Sony reaps what they sow with Vita, and their uneven support reflects in Vita's uneven sales, and no real chance of getting really better. The only question that remains about Vita is until when Sony will give it short bursts of support.
 

Darius

Banned
At just above 3m, 3DS would have the 11th best YTD ever. Not bad after being 3rd, 4th and 5th only behind the DS. Also worth noticing how PSP surpassed the 3m mark only twice -at the height of its popularity, and Wii only once.

Yes, this "terribly unhealthy" year for 3DS, will end up quite close to PSPs best year ever. The problem this year was quite clearly the 1st half of the year, with a surprisingly sharp decline, even with this handicap they managed to sell quite well by making some good moves.
 

L~A

Member
Yes, this "terribly unhealthy" year for 3DS, will end up quite close to PSPs best year ever. The problem this year was quite clearly the 1st half of the year, with a surprisingly sharp decline, even with this handicap they managed to sell quite well by making some good moves.

Yeah, which is why I said early 2015 will be key.

To be honest, I'm not that confident. No drop YoY during H1 would be great, and sort of doable (not likely at the rate things are going). The real drop YoY will come during H2 unless something special happens and suddenly, people start buying 3DS en masse :p
 
People were also expecting some continued support during the holidays. It is not easy to compete against all the megatons that are released to holidays, and Vita Q4 line-up was its worst in 2014.

Sony reaps what they sow with Vita, and their uneven support reflects in Vita's uneven sales, and no real chance of getting really better. The only question that remains about Vita is until when Sony will give it short bursts of support.

The lack of notable releases is a Sony's fault, though. I'm also quite sure everyone was expecting PS Nova to be PSV's biggest title during the holiday season, which could have sustained hw sales. PSV's line-up has been anemic, of course, but people were indeed also expecting announcements and important titles that haven't realized at all. 2015 looks barren as well.

Yes, this "terribly unhealthy" year for 3DS, will end up quite close to PSPs best year ever. The problem this year was quite clearly the 1st half of the year, with a surprisingly sharp decline, even with this handicap they managed to sell quite well by making some good moves.

Indedd, New 3DS must prove itself during the first half of 2015.

Yeah, which is why I said early 2015 will be key.

To be honest, I'm not that confident. No drop YoY during H1 would be great, and sort of doable (not likely at the rate things are going). The real drop YoY will come during H2 unless something special happens and suddenly, people start buying 3DS en masse :p

Nintendo should focus on amiibo 3DS games; YW NFC, amiibo Nintendo all-stars and such. This could be the selling point of 3DS in 2015.
 

Oregano

Member
Yeah, which is why I said early 2015 will be key.

To be honest, I'm not that confident. No drop YoY during H1 would be great, and sort of doable (not likely at the rate things are going). The real drop YoY will come during H2 unless something special happens and suddenly, people start buying 3DS en masse :p

Bravely Second is going to really take off, just you watch!/wishful thinking

I think it is important to note when talking about the YoU of the systems that the 3DS is almost a year older than the Vita. It had also sold 3.6 million when Vita launched(more than Vita's current LTD).

There is also a semi-decent chance that the successor to the 3DS gets announced this year.
 

Darius

Banned
Yeah, which is why I said early 2015 will be key.

To be honest, I'm not that confident. No drop YoY during H1 would be great, and sort of doable (not likely at the rate things are going). The real drop YoY will come during H2 unless something special happens and suddenly, people start buying 3DS en masse :p

I agree. September to December was a really strong period this year for 3DS, but since it wasn´t breaking records we´ve seen many attempts to make them look bad.

Like last year we don´t know what the lineup of the upcoming year will look like, so it´s too early to make any great/"precise" predictions. I have the impression that Nintendo will focus even more on WiiU next year and the majority of the Pokemon, Monster Hunter and also Youkai Watch audience seems to be already on board, so it won´t be easy next year. The only thing that I can say so far is that 1H next year has a small chance to be up yoy, the problem right now is that the currently known 1H lineup doesn´t have any strong system-sellers so far.
 
Tsutaya: best-selling games in 2014

1. Monster Hunter 4G (3DS)
2. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (3DS)
3. Yo-kai Watch 2 Honke (3DS)
4. Yo-kai Watch 2 Shinuchi (3DS)
5. Yo-kai Watch 2 Ganso (3DS)
6. Dragon Quest Monsters 2 (3DS)
7. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
8. Pokémon Omega Ruby (3DS)
9. Yo-kai Watch (3DS)
10. Mario Kart 8 (WiiU)
11. Kirby Triple Deluxe (3DS)
12. Pazudora Z (3DS)
13. Dark Souls 2 (PS3)
14. Gundam: Extreme VS. Full Boost (PS3)
15. Freedom Wars (PSV)
16. Mario Party Island Tour (3DS)
17. Yakuza Ishin (PS3)
18. Sengoku Musou 4 (PS3)
19. Metal Gear Solid 5 Ground Zero (PS3)
20. Sengoku Basara 4 (PS3)
 
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