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[Tempesta di Fuoco]

People always seem to forget that Smash 3DS and Wii U were announced in 2011, a year and a half before the Wii U was even released and during a time when the 3DS was tanking REALLY badly.

That's why I always laugh at the people who suggest that making Smash 3DS was a "bad" idea, hahahaha.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

because ps4 will not even reach Wii U sales in japan.

PS4 will surpass WiiU sales probably sometime in 2016.

 

[KratosEnergyDrink]

PS4 will surpass WiiU sales probably sometime in 2016.

probably ... in a parallel universe.

 

[Scum]

People always seem to forget that Smash 3DS and Wii U were announced in 2011, a year and a half before the Wii U was even released and during a time when the 3DS was tanking REALLY badly.

That's why I always laugh at the people who suggest that making Smash 3DS was a "bad" idea, hahahaha.

It was a great idea. It keeps the IP alive. I still reckon Smash WiiU first would have screwed things up.

 

[Oregano]

probably ... in a parallel universe.

PS4 is going to be supported for longer so it will pass Wii U but it will be a bit of a pyrrhic victory. It will probably pass 3 million as well.

 

[Scum]

PS4 is going to be supported for longer so it will pass Wii U but it will be a bit of a pyrrhic victory. It will probably pass 3 million as well.

This.

 

[dragonfart28]

Awful PS4 numbers.

How could it drop below Wii U from last week going into Xmas???

 

[DizzyCrow]

I definitely don't think Smash Bros is something Nintendo wants to do for all of their releases going forward, it was somewhat counterproductive. The iOS and Android model has three main advantages that are all of similar importance:

1. It effectively halfs the workload for a number of Nintendo teams and guarantees a steady stream of first party releases for both systems. This also allows certain teams to branch out from their existing franchises.
2. It leverages the strong third party support for Nintendo handhelds, allow third parties to effortlessly support the Nintendo console as well. We already have a good example of this in action with the current Playstation ecosystem but this should be even easier.
3. It loosens the relationship between hardware and software. An individual hardware SKU selling badly will not hold back sales of the top software(like we are seeing with Wii U) and retailers will only have to carry one software library.

The Smash Bros strategy only really addresses point 1 whereas I think the other two points are equally important. It almost seems like too obvious of a way to go, which is slightly concerning, because we know Nintendo doesn't like doing to obvious thing!

I agree with all your points but, wouldn't they still have to carry both versions?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

probably ... in a parallel universe.

I don't know what universe you currently reside in but its certainly not a real one.

Why don't we make this interesting and make an avatar bet

 

[Salex_]

Awful PS4 numbers.

How could it drop below Wii U from last week going into Xmas???

Because no new game came out?

I don't think why people are surprised. A port of GTA5 and a limited edition console with a game you can't play until February was their "holiday plan". They're dragging until February/March.

 

[Oregano]

I agree with all your points but, wouldn't they still have to carry both versions?

Not if they were both to use the same media format. 3DS gamecards can already go up to 8GB(though only 4GBs are in use).

 

[Darius]

I think that they are thinking more in the long term, thinking that its not a good business decision to keep making games for an old system for a very long time. A lot of people will get tired of it eventually and then they want new hardware. Consoles are here to stay, after all. It might be declining fast, but Nintendo and Sony will make at least one more console, i'm 100% confident in that. It wouldnt surprise me if even Microsoft tries again in Japan (a new product means a new opportunity, generally speaking). Its also in 3rd parties best interest to have more options where to put their games.

If they think that making multiplatform games isnt worth it at all, i'm sure that they will re-evaluate it. But they cant know for sure before they have tried. Samurai Warriors Chronicles 4, for example, might be an exclusive game, depeding on how the publisher felt about the sales of Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3, who knows.





Thanks =)



That is a good point. I think it shows that it comes more down to a game to game basis and doesnt necessarily have that much to do with the systems themself.

The basic idea behind the decision is obvious, to build a userbase on new systems, the point is though and taking also the actual present market realities into account and in regards to Japanese centric software, they seem to desperately try to build an userbase by trying to breath life into systems that are performing really badly, despite having the painting already on the wall, consumers have chosen their system of choice this gen, and instead of taking the market into account and to act accordingly, they try to go against the stream to push in a different direction.

That´s something that is totally understandable when it comes to console/handheld manufacturers, because that´s in their own best interest, but when it comes to independant 3rd party publishers I really don´t see a convincing reason to sacrifice their own profitability by splitting sales with different versions of a game, which in the end just favours certain manufacturers instead of themselves.

Because in the long term right now it does seem that neither PSV nor PS4 will be much more than niche systems in Japan and in case of PSV there is even a risk of hitting a dead end with no successor, something that contradicts "long-term" doesn´t it? This "long-term" argument gets even less relevant in this particular case, considering that in 2-3 years it´ll be likely time for a next-gen handheld from Nintendo that most likely will take the spotlight in the dedicated videogame market in Japan.

 

[test_account]

The basic idea behind the decision is obvious, to build a userbase on new systems, the point is though and taking also the actual present market realities into account and in regards to Japanese centric software, they seem to desperately try to build an userbase by trying to breath life into systems that are performing really badly, despite having the painting already on the wall, consumers have chosen their system of choice this gen, and instead of taking the market into account and to act accordingly, they try to go against the stream to push in a different direction.

That´s something that is totally understandable when it comes to console/handheld manufacturers, because that´s in their own best interest, but when it comes to independant 3rd party publishers I really don´t see a convincing reason to sacrifice their own profitability by splitting sales with different versions of a game, which in the end just favours certain manufacturers instead of themselves.

Because in the long term right now it does seem that neither PSV nor PS4 will be much more than niche systems in Japan and in case of PSV there is even a risk of hitting a dead end with no successor, something that contradicts "long-term" doesn´t it? This "long-term" argument gets even less relevant in this particular case, considering that in 2-3 years it´ll be likely time for a next-gen handheld from Nintendo that most likely will take the spotlight in the dedicated videogame market in Japan.

With long term i was thinking more about that maybe 3rd parties dont want console games to dissapear completely because they might think that there is success to be had in that market segment.

Besides that, i honestly cant say much about it because i basically dont know anything about how the 3rd parties operate (what type of business plans they are following, what deals/relationship they have with hardware manufacturers etc.), but i do think that they are very aware of the current market situation (as to where mobile gaming is dominating, and the 3DS being the best selling system for more dedicated gaming hardware). Also, i dont think have a view where they belive that they can make much more profit elsewhere, both in short term and long term, yet they dont take this opportunity. I cant see any reason for them to hold anything back if they believe this at least.

By the way, i'm not making arguements here from what i personally belive is the best solution just to point that out, i'm only guessing what the 3rd parties are thinking and why they do what they do. I can mention that i personally hope that console games will contunie to exist though. Luckily consoles is stronger on a worldwide basis, so i think that console games from japanese developers will contunie to exist for quite some time.

Yeah, the "4DS" might be be very popular indeed. It really depends on what type of product it is and what the competition has to offer at the same time. We know that no successor is immune depsite how the predecessor did, its what the product itself offers that is the most important thing. Hopefully for Nintendo's sake, they manage to come up with a great idea that a lot of people want.

 

[michaelius]

Awful PS4 numbers.

How could it drop below Wii U from last week going into Xmas???

Last two weeks before Christmas are always biggest for Nintendo, Sony hardware will increase next week when older people start spending money they received as gifts.

 

[Hexa]

Last two weeks before Christmas are always biggest for Nintendo, Sony hardware will increase next week when older people start spending money they received as gifts.

Sony hardware will start increasing in February when the PS4 actually starts getting games. I don't think it'll go up till then.
I was so hopeful that they'd cross a million before the end of the year earlier on, but it looks like they'll miss it.

 

[Chris1964]

Last two weeks before Christmas are always biggest for Nintendo, Sony hardware will increase next week when older people start spending money they received as gifts.

These older people must not be older than 15 if they still expect money they received as gifts to spend on video games.

 

[Vena]

Awful PS4 numbers.

How could it drop below Wii U from last week going into Xmas???

The PS4 is getting unrepresentative spikes from Limited Editions, with the last one being the dominant sales factor over GTAV. At this point, I think Sony's strategy for pushing the console is to release a Limited Edition for everything until they can actually provide a game's line-up worth owning.

We'll see more of these spikes and then subsequent collapses.

 

[Road]

Dengeki Sales: Week 51, 2014 (Dec 15 - Dec 21)
33./43. [3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.06.26} - 6.833 / 231.643 (+75%)

You've corrected from six to two hundred thousand, but that's not what the error is. The week before, Dengeki simply copied the Kirby Triple Deluxe number, and this week someone just added the sales into it.

I wonder if Dengeki is ever gonna realize this mistake.

SOFTWARE

-------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) |  FY 2014   | FY (%)  |
-------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 1.309.492 | 70.10%   | 17.176.317 | 58.50%  |
| PS3   | 180.864   | 9.70%    | 4.246.968  | 14.50%  |
| Wii U | 171.679   | 9.20%    | 2.275.661  | 7.80%   |
| Vita  | 146.376   | 7.80%    | 3.643.998  | 12.40%  |
| PS4   | 47.552    | 2.50%    | 1.307.196  | 4.50%   |
| PSP   | 7.875     | 0.40%    | 582.607    | 2.00%   |
| XB1   | 3.089     | 0.20%    | 110.111    | 0.40%   |
-------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 1.866.927 | 100.00%  | 29.342.858 | 100.00% |
-------------------------------------------------------

And their FY software total is wrong as well. Up until week 49, it was right, but since week 50 3DS, PS3 and PS4 are different if you add the weekly sales.

With Dengeki you get what you pay for.

 

[Kandinsky]

These older people must not be older than 15 if they still expect money they received as gifts to spend on video games.

15 is still older than 7 which is probably Nintendo's main demography

 

[metalslimer]

Seeing how even PS4 sold less than PSV launch aligned, it´s really no surprise. The dedicated videogame market lies basically on 3DS shoulder alone due to the bad perfomances of all other systems,

Concerning the comment about software sales I have to disagree, 3DS just recently broke a software selling record with the most multimilion sellers in a certain short timeframe, it also is a system with games with considerably higher sales than the most succesful PS2 games, for example games like Animal Crossing for 3DS. Overall software sales may not be the the best, but this isn´t a matter of actual potential, which is shown by the most successful software on 3DS, and the huge success of Youkai Watch, but the lack of investment and also due to arbitrary weird decisions from the majority of Japanese 3rd party publishers.

In fact it has been quite often mentioned that despite the clear cut market situation 3DS is still missing quite a lot of big 3rd party IPs and support, some publishers even beeing totaly absent like Falcom and N1, even compared to seemingly dead systems, another problem is that for whatever reason, publishers tend to make low budget or "cutified" spinoffs of their IPs, instead of putting actual effort and instead of taking full advantage of their own estabished IPs and fanbase. On the other hand many of the actual thought out and well executed efforts are seeing success. The problem in the comparison between the overall software sales is, that there is a gap in support and actual quantity of games.

Right, I don't get what you're arguing here? Is anyone really saying that the 3DS if it had all the support that has gone to mobile wouldn't be doing better software wise? The problem is a large amount of support to the dedicated video game market has shifted to mobile and despite the 3DS doing better in hardware sales, it's not going to be able to prop up the this declining market.

 

[Jigorath]

because ps4 will not even reach Wii U sales in japan.

Why wouldn't it? Nintendo's pretty much released all the heavy hitters for WiiU already. Smash Bros, Mario Kart, 2D Mario, 3D Mario, and so on. Meanwhile PS4 still has Final Fantasy XV, Kingdom Hearts III, Metal Gear Solid V, Dragon Quest Heroes, Resident Evil 7, GTAVI, Persona 5, Street Fighter V, Bloodborne, and possible Dragon Quest XI. I'm not saying PS4 is ever going to be a big hit in Japan, but it will pass WiiU at the very least and might even hit PS3 lifetime numbers.

 

[Darius]

Right, I don't get what you're arguing here? Is anyone really saying that the 3DS if it had all the support that has gone to mobile wouldn't be doing better software wise? The problem is a large amount of support to the dedicated video game market has shifted to mobile and despite the 3DS doing better in hardware sales, it's not going to be able to prop up the this declining market.

What exactly is your problem? I basically just pointed out some factors that affect overall software sales.

 

[Arzehn]

Kan Colle Kai for Vita will launch in May, there will be a limited bundle as well.

I think they missed the hype already though, not sure if Japan is still interested in the game now... took too long.

 

[Nirolak]

IIRC Japanese mobile gaming market is already larger than all consoles/handhelds HW and SW combined..

Correct, by a non trivial margin.

At this point I feel the biggest threat to dedicated devices is the more indepth games taking off.

Like White Cat Project is a good first step on that road. If we see something like Mevius doing quite well, suddenly mobile becomes even more attractive for devs who still work in the dedicated space.

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not sure what's changed with Rise of Mana in its newest update, but it's went up from the 200-400 range and climbed steadily up to 72 on iOS.

Still not spectacular, but notably healthier than before.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Would really, really love that for once the costs discussions of the Wii U involved more than the token asumptions we always end up doing withouth any solid base.

The culprit of the costs is always the Gamepad. What i do know is that the expert that did the CPU and GPU disection estimated the costs of the MCM at the 90 price range. That is the most expensive component in the device that i know of. And that decision was one with little benefits outside of the NIntendo comfort bubble.

With the above aside:

You don't see the redesign for the Gamepad happening?

The logic behind my not seeing those levels of cost reduction are relatively simple - $100 reduction implies something like a change im cost from $110 to $10, which is improbable, or that the pad contributes an excessive portion of build, i.e. in the realm of $200 wherein a redesign results in a 50% cost reduction. In either event it also seems far fetched they get those levels of cost reduction from a minor redesign.

I could see it happening. I could also see it not. Mainly because I don't think it would deliver the degree of cost reduction others seem to. Nor do I think the price reduction it enables will in itself spur sales enough to justify the further investment. I think for some, this has become the latest "wait for..." as all else has proved ineffective.

Significant cost reductions from recollection typically derive from improved economies of scale, fabrication process shrinks. And again either of these routes are difficult for Wii U due to lack of scale and components that aren't going to move to smaller process nodes.

 

[Chris1964]

I'm not saying PS4 is ever going to be a big hit in Japan, but it will pass WiiU at the very least and might even hit PS3 lifetime numbers.

That ship has sailed long time ago.

 

[Darius]

With long term i was thinking more about that maybe 3rd parties dont want console games to dissapear completely because they might think that there is success to be had in that market segment.

Besides that, i honestly cant say much about it because i basically dont know anything about how the 3rd parties operate (what type of business plans they are following, what deals/relationship they have with hardware manufacturers etc.), but i do think that they are very aware of the current market situation (as to where mobile gaming is dominating, and the 3DS being the best selling system for more dedicated gaming hardware). Also, i dont think have a view where they belive that they can make much more profit elsewhere, both in short term and long term, yet they dont take this opportunity. I cant see any reason for them to hold anything back if they believe this at least.

By the way, i'm not making arguements here from what i personally belive is the best solution just to point that out, i'm only guessing what the 3rd parties are thinking and why they do what they do. I can mention that i personally hope that console games will contunie to exist though. Luckily consoles is stronger on a worldwide basis, so i think that console games from japanese developers will contunie to exist for quite some time.

Yeah, the "4DS" might be be very popular indeed. It really depends on what type of product it is and what the competition has to offer at the same time. We know that no successor is immune depsite how the predecessor did, its what the product itself offers that is the most important thing. Hopefully for Nintendo's sake, they manage to come up with a great idea that a lot of people want.

Are you suggesting Sony is trying to moneyhat their way back into relevance in Japan? I also doubt 3rd parties goals are as noble as to want to be the white knight of console gaming. What I can say is that looking at the current state of the market, pushing against the stream isn´t doing them any favours and the results in the past few years is the evidence.

And since you mentioned that maybe their intention is to save console gaming in Japan, just look at even the most optimistic guesses in favour of PS4 that it won´t outsell WiiU before 2016, to me that´s not exactly a promising outlook, considering all the 3rd party support PS4 is getting. What exactly do you mean by saving or in your words "maybe don´t want consoles to disappear" in Japan, do you mean consoles in general or specifically Playstation? Let´s be honest for a moment wouldn´t a hypothetical WiiU with the same 3rd party support as PS4 have had higher chances of success in Japan? considering WiiU is ahead when you align the launches, despite a far more limited amount of releases to boot? The 3DS is quite a good example of what could happen when a system isn´t only supported by their 1st party games but also by a relevant amount of 3rd party software.

What the Japanese 3rd party publishers seem to be heading to instead is a domestic market with two "broken" current-consoles, with one just a little bit less broken, but likely still even ending up selling worse than the disappointing PS3 in Japan.

 

[Oregano]

Correct, by a non trivial margin.

At this point I feel the biggest threat to dedicated devices is the more indepth games taking off.

Like White Cat Project is a good first step on that road. If we see something like Mevius doing quite well, suddenly mobile becomes even more attractive for devs who still work in the dedicated space.

I think Square Enix may have already proved that console/portable level projects can succeed on mobile with Chaos Rings back in 2010. I think what Mevius is meant to test is whether they can reliably create hits with longevity.

Both Chaos Rings and Infinity Blade fizzled out in a very short amount of time(shorter than the lifespan of Level 5 franchises!) so I still think there a questions about the stability of the mobile market.

I feel that's why Masuda is now pursuing more mid-tier on portables/consoles again with the caveat that they are still being very conservative. The amounts shipped for BD:FF and FF:Ex seemed to suggest that they were expected to perform similar to 4 Heroes of the Light and the Crystal Chronicles games on the DS and they both did in their first weeks.

 

[Nirolak]

I think Square Enix may have already proved that console/portable level projects can succeed on mobile with Chaos Rings back in 2010. I think what Mevius is meant to test is whether they can reliably create hits with longevity.

Both Chaos Rings and Infinity Blade fizzled out in a very short amount of time(shorter than the lifespan of Level 5 franchises!) so I still think there a questions about the stability of the mobile market.

I feel that's why Masuda is now pursuing more mid-tier on portables/consoles again with the caveat that they are still being very conservative. The amounts shipped for BD:FF and FF:Ex seemed to suggest that they were expected to perform similar to 4 Heroes of the Light and the Crystal Chronicles games on the DS and they both did in their first weeks.

That's what I mean though. Things like Mevius and Legends are meant to be long, ongoing successes that make more money than just making a mid-sized handheld game would.

Infinity Blade itself still performed well with each entry, unlike Chaos Rings, but that one is definitely more of an exception than a rule. The paid app domain is primarily worth it to indie or notably small sized studios where making $5-$20 million is a huge deal instead of a really ho-hum result.

 

[Principate]

I don't know what universe you currently reside in but its certainly not a real one.

Why don't we make this interesting and make an avatar bet

PS4 launch aligned is doing worse than the Wii u, Even If the wii u stops selling it will be difficult. A year advantage and launched aligned performing worse isn't something easily made up in 2 years, not with the PS4's potential sales which aren't that great.

 

[Pennywise83]

That's what I mean though. Things like Mevius and Legends are meant to be long, ongoing successes that make more money than just making a mid-sized handheld game would.

Infinity Blade itself still performed well with each entry, unlike Chaos Rings, but that one is definitely more of an exception than a rule. The paid app domain is primarily worth it to indie or notably small sized studios where making $5-$20 million is a huge deal instead of a really ho-hum result.

Do we know which business model SQEX is going to implement with Mevius?

 

[Oregano]

That's what I mean though. Things like Mevius and Legends are meant to be long, ongoing successes that make more money than just making a mid-sized handheld game would.

Infinity Blade itself still performed well with each entry, unlike Chaos Rings, but that one is definitely more of an exception than a rule. The paid app domain is primarily worth it to indie or notably small sized studios where making $5-$20 million is a huge deal instead of a really ho-hum result.

That's true but we still don't know what business model Mevius is pursuing do we?(What's Legends referring to by the way?)[EDIT: Ninja'd by Pennywise]

I just don't think publishers are going to completely abandon dedicated devices until they can reliably establish long term successes and it's going to be a growing question over the next five years because you'll be approaching a similar timeframe from NES to PS1. Angry Birds is already five years old.

 

[Tripon]

I'm not sure what's changed with Rise of Mana in its newest update, but it's went up from the 200-400 range and climbed steadily up to 72 on iOS.

Still not spectacular, but notably healthier than before.

It just got a collaboration with Final Fantasy IV and the FFIV After Years.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I expect Mevius to be a 15-20 dollar games with trivial microtransaction at much.

I feel this is pretty much a test if the mobile market is ready for full sized non-f2p games. If there's a market who's showing that it might be ready is the japanese one.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

That ship has sailed long time ago.

DQXI could help PS4 in many ways, like attracting more games for the kid/family crowd.

 

[Pennywise83]

I expect Mevius to be a 15-20 dollar games with trivial microtransaction at much.

I feel this is pretty much a test if the mobile market is ready for full sized non-f2p games. If there's a market who's showing that it might be ready is the japanese one.

SQEX did try to push this business model many times, more specifically by using remakes or portings of their old / classic games. If neither well-known and beloved DQ games could succeed in reaching a wide audience, I don't see how a basically unknown spin-off can. The market for "full" prices mobile games is really tiny; at this point, why not developing on dedicated devices? Margins are higher and the potential audience might not even be smaller.

 

[vinnygambini]

DQXI could help PS4 in many ways, like attracting more games for the kid/family crowd.

That audience is on the 3DS (mobile too) though - as shown through Youkai Watch, Pokemon, and many others.

I'll be shocked to see DQXI, if ever, solely on PS4.

 

[Vena]

That's true but we still don't know what business model Mevius is pursuing do we?(What's Legends referring to by the way?)[EDIT: Ninja'd by Pennywise]

I just don't think publishers are going to completely abandon dedicated devices until they can reliably establish long term successes and it's going to be a growing question over the next five years because you'll be approaching a similar timeframe from NES to PS1. Angry Birds is already five years old.

I don't think a mobile-only approach is viable for anyone in this industry, especially not large studios like SQEX. Every company that got famous and big, collapsed afterwards as the fickle nature of the casual moves as it always moves. From Wii to Angry Birds to whatever. The Chaos Rings is an example of a title that can succeed but can't seem to follow that up again, Infinity Blade has been the lone exception than any sort of rule that one could point at and say "We can do that too!". The market for full-priced titles is probably tiny... smaller than the market of current 3DS owners.

Dedicated hardware, at least in the handheld space, offers a lot of things that a mobile platform simply doesn't offer outside of just having reliable control schemes. It provides an environment in which 30-40$ titles can be sold and actually expect some modicum of success and possible longevity given strong following releases. From a consumer point of view, you also tend to know that a 30-40$ title (at least if Nintendo is slapped on it) isn't shovelware crap or one of the many derivatives that pollute mobile... which is another problem with mobile: pollution. (Dedicated also has the advantage of being built for gaming, so has a general longer lifespan than any one mobile device and makes development easier without having to worry about a thousand different hardware configurations and RAM allotments. RAM alone is a nightmare on mobile as management for it is completely different and OS heavy and often times exceptionally limited per app.)

I do, however, think the whole console "push" behind the PS4 is one of shouting at clouds. The WiiU would have made more sense from a more established market perspective but even that would have been much the same shouting at clouds. Handhelds or bust, really, at least in Japan.

 

[cw_sasuke]

That audience is on the 3DS (mobile too) though - as shown through Youkai Watch, Pokemon, and many others.

I'll be shocked to see DQXI, if ever, solely on PS4.

And they can only own one device ? Dont see what stopping someone who bought a 3DS in 2012 from buying a PS4 four years later for the next DQ main title - especially after it already recieved other DQ Spin-Offs, Final Fantasy, Tales of and Kingdom Hearts.

Every big SE console title is on PS4 and we know DQ 11 will be a console game.

 

[vinnygambini]

And they can only own one device ? Dont see what stopping someone who bought a 3DS in 2012 from buying a PS4 four years later for the next DQ main title - especially after it already recieved other DQ Spin-Offs, Final Fantasy, Tales of and Kingdom Hearts.

Every big SE console title is on PS4 and we know DQ 11 will be a console game.

Are kids & parents made out of money?

We are experiencing an economic contraction in Japan that will last several years - people are more selective with their money and you are asking them to invest 600$ to play DQXI - funny.

The Family/Kid segment is on mobile & 3DS platforms - if that is what SE is targeting for DQXI's audience, they are making a grave mistake to launch on a platform, PS4, that will not outsell Wii U until early 2016.

 

[Oregano]

I think the DQXI arguments have been done to death at this point, can we not at least wait until Horii makes another vague statement?

 

[Kyoufu]

Are kids & parents made out of money?

We are experiencing an economic contraction in Japan that will last several years - people are more selective with their money and you are asking them to invest 600$ to play DQXI - funny.

PS4 + DQXI isn't now and wouldn't be anywhere near $600 by the time it hypothetically releases in, say, 2016. That's if it's even on PS4.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

DQXI could help PS4 in many ways, like attracting more games for the kid/family crowd.

It's games like this why I put the top end of PS4 sales around 6 million units.

Because it's currently selling like a system that won't even make it to 3 million units lifetime.

 

[Salex_]

And since you mentioned that maybe their intention is to save console gaming in Japan, just look at even the most optimistic guesses in favour of PS4 that it won´t outsell WiiU before 2016, to me that´s not exactly a promising outlook, considering all the 3rd party support PS4 is getting.

None of those 3rd party games for the Japanese audience is out yet, so it's impossibly to guess what these games will do for the hardware sales despite most of them being cross-gen games.

Let´s be honest for a moment wouldn´t a hypothetical WiiU with the same 3rd party support as PS4 have had higher chances of success in Japan? considering WiiU is ahead when you align the launches, despite a far more limited amount of releases to boot?

Do you really think Resident Evil, Tales of, Yazuka, Persona, FFXV, KH3, etc will suddenly start selling more than it would on PS4 just because the Wii U install base might be higher when those games come out? And what if they had a decent western audience or wanted to try to build one?

About the "far amount of releases" comment. The best selling PS4 game sold 161k, which was a cross-gen demo a month after the console launched. Take a look at what the Wii U had for the Japanese audience in it's first year.

What the Japanese 3rd party publishers seem to be heading to instead is a domestic market with two "broken" current-consoles, with one just a little bit less broken, but likely still even ending up selling worse than the disappointing PS3 in Japan.

So you have a problem with them releasing games on the platforms they decided on?

 

[metalslimer]

What exactly is your problem? I basically just pointed out some factors that affect overall software sales.

Ok, and I was just mentioning that people have a valid reason to be concerned for the Japanese industry even if the 3DS is outperforming the PS2 in hardware sales and has some big games on it.

There seems to be this ongoing argument with people in regards to 3DS sales from people looking at the situation from different perspectives. Some people look at the 3DS in a Japanese vacuum. Some people look at the 3DS in Japan relative to worldwide sales. Some people look at the 3DS and its relationship to the overall market in Japan. The system probably does get bit of unfair criticism in these threads when you consider how well its doing for itself in Japan.

 

[Mpl90]

SQEX did try to push this business model many times, more specifically by using remakes or portings of their old / classic games. If neither well-known and beloved DQ games could succeed in reaching a wide audience, I don't see how a basically unknown spin-off can. The market for "full" prices mobile games is really tiny; at this point, why not developing on dedicated devices? Margins are higher and the potential audience might not even be smaller.

I'd actually say that (it's just my impression) the mobile audience for games with prices > 9.99 (heck, maybe even for those > 4.99) was larger compared to now, where it seems very small. Just to give an example: Dragon Quest V. Unfortunately, we can just get a clear idea on Google Play sales because of download numbers, which iOS never share. The game has always been 1st in the Paid Rankings, except for December 13th, when it was 3rd. Now, as of today, the game has yet to cross 50,000 downloads (but it's over 10,000). Thus, so far, we can say that its daily download average is 833 < x < 4,167. Of course, it's much nearer the higher limit for sure. And this is for a title that has almost always been on top in the Paid Rankings. Thus, you just need 4,167 copies per day at max to be on top of Paid Rankings.

Also, we can estimate its daily grossing average, given the price (1,800 Yen): 1,500,000 Yen < x < 7,500,000 Yen. For reference, here's the Grossing Ranking trend since launch for DQV on Google Play

It grew up to 28th, stayed for a few days at 30th and recently started declining. Once the game crosses 50,000 downloads, we can have a good picture about grossing numbers for that spectrum of the ranking.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Ok, and I was just mentioning that people have a valid reason to be concerned for the Japanese industry even if the 3DS is outperforming the PS2 in hardware sales and has some big games on it.

There seems to be this ongoing argument with people in regards to 3DS sales from people looking at the situation from different perspectives. Some people look at the 3DS in a Japanese vacuum. Some people look at the 3DS in Japan relative to worldwide sales. Some people look at the 3DS and its relationship to the overall market in Japan. The system probably does get bit of unfair criticism in these threads when you consider how well its doing for itself in Japan.

Generally I agree with your broad reaching assessment.

It shows a large contraction of the handheld market alone by likely selling marginally over the PSP's ltd. Like I think it may end up in the early 20 millions. Not too much higher than that methinks. Which is a pretty sizable reduction from the prior gens market leader, but overall fairly healthy. An ecosystem that could maintain a degree of relevancy in the dedicated space if the next Ninty handheld holds a similar unit tally.

So far it's been the companion to handheld hardware in the second placer and home system that is truly worrying. Even at my best projections based on current sales rates and expected gains with key software, there will be no second place system above the ten million unit mark in Japan this generation. Thinking of dedicated home and handheld consoles as direct competition in that market more than it tends to be true in the west. Meaning what meager software sales totals we see on 3DS will likely be the vast bulk of total software sales for the dedicated market this gen.

If that doesn't scare you nothing will. All it will take for Japanese game publishers to move over wholesale is as Nirolak (I think) pointed out earlier is key large wares. Titles more commonly seen in the dedicated space finding massive success in the smartphone and tablet market. I think it's only a matter of time before the dedicated market in Japan disappears entirely.

 

[test_account]

Are you suggesting Sony is trying to moneyhat their way back into relevance in Japan? I also doubt 3rd parties goals are as noble as to want to be the white knight of console gaming. What I can say is that looking at the current state of the market, pushing against the stream isn´t doing them any favours and the results in the past few years is the evidence.

And since you mentioned that maybe their intention is to save console gaming in Japan, just look at even the most optimistic guesses in favour of PS4 that it won´t outsell WiiU before 2016, to me that´s not exactly a promising outlook, considering all the 3rd party support PS4 is getting. What exactly do you mean by saving or in your words "maybe don´t want consoles to disappear" in Japan, do you mean consoles in general or specifically Playstation? Let´s be honest for a moment wouldn´t a hypothetical WiiU with the same 3rd party support as PS4 have had higher chances of success in Japan? considering WiiU is ahead when you align the launches, despite a far more limited amount of releases to boot? The 3DS is quite a good example of what could happen when a system isn´t only supported by their 1st party games but also by a relevant amount of 3rd party software.

What the Japanese 3rd party publishers seem to be heading to instead is a domestic market with two "broken" current-consoles, with one just a little bit less broken, but likely still even ending up selling worse than the disappointing PS3 in Japan.

Nope, i'm not suggesting that, because i cant say much about how 3rd parties operates since i basically know nothing about it. I can guess about what i think is most realistic though, and i think that the answer is no. I think it would cost too much money, and 3rd parties would make many of their decisions alone without needing money to make those decisions. I think that relationship between 3rd party and 1st party (that goes for every company, not just Sony) can have some impact on support in one way or another however, but i dont feel confident making any definitive statements outside of that because i know basically nothing about it.

Sure, its not about being noble or saving anything (if saving means bringing stuff basically back to the glory days). I did say that it was to succeed, as in having profits made. In the end, it has to be business decision/reason behind it. I think that 3rd parties doesnt want to give up on consoles because they think that there is, and will be, a market there, which means that it is possible to make money there. There is a reason why they still make console games at least. I'm thinking about consoles in general, not just Sony platforms.

Personally, i dont think that the PS4 have really gotten a lot of 3rd party support in Japan yet. The near future lineup is good though i think, but those games arent released yet, so we will have to wait and see how much that they will sell.

Regarding what you say about the WiiU, i'm sure that it would have sold better, but i have no idea about more specifics. We do know that systems that are greatly supported will sell quite noticeable more though, like you mentioned, indeed. I'm wondering why japanese 3rd parties didnt try a bit more with the WiiU. Yeah, consoles overall is most likely going to decline noticeably this generation as well. Hopefully for the 3rd parties, they will still find success. The software sales are the most important thing.

By the way, why do you think that 3rd parties make games for the PS4 and Vita?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

PS4 launch aligned is doing worse than the Wii u, Even If the wii u stops selling it will be difficult. A year advantage and launched aligned performing worse isn't something easily made up in 2 years, not with the PS4's potential sales which aren't that great.

Have you seen WiiU's YTD?