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[Riky]

All of them will be down. It's not really surprising and should be expected.

Yet Gamepass is up, that's the real story here.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Again, look at and read the chart. It's not YoY.

I thought you were comparing Q4s. That's YoY.

 

[Three]

I thought you were comparing Q4s. That's YoY.

I give up. Good luck figuring it out.

 

[Stuart360]

No I don't see what you're saying. Seems more like you're upset that I didn't frame the decline in demand with "a reason" when all I'm saying is that there is lower demand for the consoles if there is a 11% decline in sales and shelf availability.

But you just gave the reason, and a pretty valid one -

The same thing and I fully expect them to because it's clear the economy has been bad and spending has decreased.

Anywya this is getting tiresome. As you said you are going to say the same things about Playstation and Switch if they also show a decline so at least you're being fair about it.

 

[Menzies]

I give up. Good luck figuring it out.

It is compared against previous quarter, but they did announce last quarter there would be supply constraint issues this quarter.

Xbox Hardware revenue declined by 11%.

It’s worth mentioning that these results are perfectly in line with predictions made in April, with the mention that they would also be impacted by supply constraints due to lockdowns in China. They also remain among the highest historically for Microsoft’s gaming business for this period of the year.

 

[AllBizness]

This news is unexpected. I thought it was be up, given all the Game Pass pushing that goes on.

Didnt the have a Gamepass promo on PC for just $1 and they ran that promo 3 months?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looking good.

 

[Three]

But you just gave the reason, and a pretty valid one -

Anywya this is getting tiresome. As you said you are going to say the same things about Playstation and Switch if they also show a decline so at least you're being fair about it.

So what's the issue if I gave a valid reason but you said I didn't? This isn't an attack on MS if that's what has you upset.

It is compared against previous quarter, but they did announce last quarter there would be supply constraint issues this quarter.

Xbox Hardware revenue declined by 11%.

Please try and explain this to Bernd who doesn't seem to get it.

In Q2 they said there would be supply issues in Q3 too. What they did not say was that there would be lower supply in Q4 vs Q3 which is what some are implying because that is not the case. supply vs demand has balanced further. There is lower demand now.

 

[Menzies]

So what's the issue if I gave a valid reason but you said I didn't? This isn't an attack on MS if that's what has you upset.


Please try and explain this to Bernd who doesn't seem to get it.

In Q2 they said there would be supply issues in Q3 too. What they did not say was that there would be lower supply in Q4 vs Q3 which is what some are implying because that is not the case. supply vs demand has balanced further. There is lower demand now.

That’s actually what I read as well - that there would be lower supply in Q4 vs Q3. Why else make that statement?

If you have numbers show them.

 

[SportsFan581]

That's true but in that case you are saying Series X has been harder to come across globally than last quarter. I don't think this is the case at all though.
The person I replied to was trying to say availability increased too while implying demand was the same even with a 11% decline. To me demand/spending has decreased with the economy. Then you get Bernd being sad about xbox negative news.

I don't know about global availability, but in the States XSX has not been more available. And that's the lion's share of their sales anyway.

In February/March they seemed to really be pumping out XSX units in the states with a few major drops at the big retailers, things seem to have slowed (Walmart hasn't had any in a long time). I have stock alerts set for Target, Bestbuy, Walmart, and Amazon, thus you can see when these drop. Bestbuy has had just one restock so far this month.

 

[Stuart360]

To be honest, all this fighting and warring is pointless whichever side you fall on. We are not going to get a real true idea on how any and all of the next gen consoles are doing long term until they are sat on store shelves freely available worldwide, and sat on those store shelves for at least 6 months, if not a year.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

No I don't see what you're saying. Seems more like you're upset that I didn't frame the decline in demand with "a reason" when all I'm saying is that there is lower demand for the consoles if there is a 11% decline in sales and shelf availability.

That's not true at all. Demand is independent of supply.

If 1M customers preorder a game and the studio cant meet that because the game is delayed to next year, sales are zero. It does not mean demand is zero.

Since Xbox and PS system sales have been up and down, sometimes one console wins a month, sometimes the other wins a month. Obviously, the supply is so gimped the winner is going to be whichever company gets the most systems in distribution that month for gamers to buy.

When Xbox wins a month, I have never seen you claim that's due to PS5 having worse demand.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

In Q2 they said there would be supply issues in Q3 too. What they did not say was that there would be lower supply in Q4 vs Q3 which is what some are implying because that is not the case. supply vs demand has balanced further. There is lower demand now.

Again, they said in Q3 that there will be stock issues in Q4. And they were right, stock was lower than in Q3 '22 and also than in Q4 '21, which is the point of comparison in the earnings report.

 

[Riky]

Best Fiscal Year Ever For Xbox.

 

[SportsFan581]

Best Fiscal Year Ever For Xbox.

Amazing news. They have greatly improved from last-gen for sure.

 

[Three]

That’s actually what I read as well - that there would be lower supply in Q4 vs Q3. Why else make that statement?

If you have numbers show them.

They always make that statement every quarter even in ones where hardware was higher. The "less supply than previous quarter" is only inferred by you.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2022/earnings-fy-2022-q3.aspx

"And in Gaming, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-to-high single digits driven by lower engagement hours year-over-year as well as constrained console supply. We expect Xbox content and services revenue to decline mid-single digits though engagement hours are expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels."

This is the statement. They are saying gaming division as a whole will see a decline and there would still be console supply constraints preventing them from going higher. The constraint is just a ceiling. It doesn't explicitly say Q4 supply is less than Q3.

That's not true at all. Demand is independent of supply.

If 1M customers preorder a game and the studio cant meet that because the game is delayed to next year, sales are zero. It does not mean demand is zero.

Since Xbox and PS system sales have been up and down, sometimes one console wins a month, sometimes the other wins a month. Obviously, the supply is so gimped the winner is going to be whichever company gets the most systems in distribution that month for gamers to buy.

When Xbox wins a month, I have never seen you claim that's due to PS5 having worse demand.

Who is talking about "winning" months between PS5 and xbox here. If they were they would be a console warrior. We are talking about how demand has decreased. If PS5 has improved shelf availability and a decline in sales then it stands to reason that demand has decreased too.

 

[Three]

Again, they said in Q3 that there will be stock issues in Q4. And they were right, stock was lower than in Q3 '22 and also than in Q4 '21, which is the point of comparison in the earnings report.

This is the most ignorant thing I've read. Still can't read the graph?

 

[reksveks]

Think people is getting confused, at least I am.

These Q's in the table above are normal calendar ones.

T Three what chart are you talking about? think i am being dopey.

 

[MScarpa]

Gamepass just keeps on growing, the squeeze on finances must make it incredibly attractive to people. Got to think that Redfall or Starfield whatever comes first will see them smash that 30 million subscriber barrier.

This is a really good point, with the recession looming in the U. S. it makes perfect sense. Good observation.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

They always make that statement every quarter even in ones where hardware was higher. The "less supply than previous quarter" is only inferred by you.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2022/earnings-fy-2022-q3.aspx

"And in Gaming, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-to-high single digits driven by lower engagement hours year-over-year as well as constrained console supply. We expect Xbox content and services revenue to decline mid-single digits though engagement hours are expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels."

This is the statement. They are saying gaming division as a whole will see a decline and there would still be console supply constraints preventing them from going higher. The constraint is just a ceiling. It doesn't explicitly say Q4 supply is less than Q3.


Who is talking about "winning" months between PS5 and xbox here. If they were they would be a console warrior. We are talking about how demand has decreased. If PS5 has improved shelf availability and a decline in sales then it stands to reason that demand has decreased too.

How do you know demand has decreased while console shelf space and availability are up for Sony or MS?

 

[Fess]

Looking good.

Whoops and I thought it would go down lol

 

[Three]

Think people is getting confused, at least I am.

These Q's in the table above are normal calendar ones.

T Three what chart are you talking about? think i am being dopey.

It's the one you posted in the OP by Dom. Maybe his graph is wrong though?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Whoops and I thought it would go down lol

Crazy market. You never know when a stock will go up or down.

 

[Menzies]

They always make that statement every quarter even in ones where hardware was higher. The "less supply than previous quarter" is only inferred by you.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2022/earnings-fy-2022-q3.aspx

"And in Gaming, we expect revenue to decline in the mid-to-high single digits driven by lower engagement hours year-over-year as well as constrained console supply. We expect Xbox content and services revenue to decline mid-single digits though engagement hours are expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels."

This is the statement. They are saying gaming division as a whole will see a decline and there would still be console supply constraints preventing them from going higher. The constraint is just a ceiling. It doesn't explicitly say Q4 supply is less than Q3.


Who is talking about "winning" months between PS5 and xbox here. If they were they would be a console warrior. We are talking about how demand has decreased. If PS5 has improved shelf availability and a decline in sales then it stands to reason that demand has decreased too.

Fair point. The article I linked did seem to single this Q out though…

She also added that COVID-driven production shutdowns in China have affected negatively Xbox Series X|S supply in Q4 (from April to June).

 

[Three]

How do you know demand has decreased while console shelf space and availability are up for Sony or MS?

The answer is I don't, the things I do know is that somebody said console availability is up while simultaneously hardware sales are down. Now it's difficult to find definitive proof that console availability is up but with those two the only logical conclusion is that demand is down this quarter. Whether that initial assumption is true or not is up for debate but supply constraints eased last quarter not got worse.

 

[Fess]

Crazy market. You never know when a stock will go up or down.

True, the trend for the year is down though, it’s been a terrible year. I used to invest in Nvidia between the graphics card upgrades, could easily earn an upgrade from investing an upgrade in stock and just wait. Not so much now though… It’ll turn eventually though.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

the only logical conclusion is that demand is down this quarter.

Nope, it's not. Just read my explanation in the thread.

 

[reksveks]

It's the one you posted in the OP by Dom. Maybe his graph is wrong though?

its just a rolling 12 month revenue chart, not sure why he uses it but he does. Q on Q; HW went down 5.5%, Q2 2022 (using normal calendar) was down 11% relative to Q2 2021.

 

[reksveks]

BTW i don't want this to be seen as an excuse but I weirdly remembered the story about controller shortages (https://www.ign.com/articles/xbox-controller-shortage-supply-disruption), it is still going on in the UK it seems; Amazon is all third party, Argos is just selling the Elite, really fucking weird but back to the real topic I think if it meant anything MS would have called it out in the Earnings call but assumed it was finished.

 

[Menzies]

its just a rolling 12 month revenue chart, not sure why he uses it but he does. Q on Q; HW went down 5.5%, Q2 2022 (using normal calendar) was down 11% relative to Q2 202.

Wait, now I’m confused.

The bar chart in the OP with the red hardware legend isn’t showing that?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Wait, now I’m confused.

The bar chart in the OP with the red hardware legend isn’t showing that?

It might be directionally correct but I think still off.

That shitty chart being used with 3D bars and a vertical axis with a 3D slant to it makes it hard to see. The vertical axis is in $2.00 increments with 5 lines, so each line is worth $0.40.

I'm going to estimate FY2022 Q3 is at $3.50, so a 5.5% drop leads to about $3.30, but the FY2022 Q4 red bar looks like $3.40 flat which is a drop of about 3%.

 

[phil_t98]

I don't think is going to be this "sudden, exponential growth" as some people are expecting.


Or PR bullshit statements.


Anything and everything under the sun makes sense....even Netflix

so any positive new about xbox is all a lie then?

 

[reksveks]

Wait, now I’m confused.

The bar chart in the OP with the red hardware legend isn’t showing that?

this is a rolling 12 month chart split by hardware and content&services.

the individual q results and the 12month rolling numbers

 

[StreetsofBeige]

this is a rolling 12 month chart split by hardware and content&services.

the individual q results and the 12month rolling numbers

I'm getting mixed up myself.

So which number/rows/bar charts involve the -11% or -5.5%?

 

[reksveks]

I'm getting mixed up myself.

So which number/rows/bar charts involve the -11% or -5.5%?

Lol. I thought I was going to do that.

5.5% is the HW difference between 2022 Q2 and 2022 Q1 (725 to 685)
11% is the HW difference between 2022 Q2 and 2021 Q2 (767 to 685)

I didn't do the % of the QoQ/YoY change of the rolling 12 month total.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Lol. I thought I was going to do that.

5.5% is the HW difference between 2022 Q2 and 2022 Q1 (725 to 685)
11% is the HW difference between 2022 Q2 and 2021 Q2 (767 to 685)

I didn't do the % of the QoQ/YoY change of the rolling 12 month total.

Sounds good. And that excel chart is the calendar year equivalent to MS's staggered fiscal year?

So the excel 2022 Q2 is the same as the recent MS 2022 Q4?

 

[reksveks]

Sounds good. And that excel chart is the calendar year equivalent to MS's staggered fiscal year?

So the excel 2022 Q2 is the same as the recent MS 2022 Q4?

Yep.

 

[Three]

Thank you for admitting that MS has been dogshit with their studio management. I appreciated the debate but you got your ass kicked like the predator his ass kicked by Dutch.

As you were saying about my PC…

What's that little stand thing in your case? Is it to stop the card from sagging? Cool build btw.

 

[64bitmodels]

Something tells me they might be interested in Sega, which would make sense, imo. The two companies have had a good relationship since the first Xbox days. Plus, MS, by acquiring them, would get a big japanese RPG in Persona, the Yakuza series, and a ton of classic Sega IPs to revive in the future.
The only issue would be recruiting talent in Japan, but you never know, really...

I've been a Sega/Xbox kid since the early days, i'd love to see the 2 come together!!! Plus, even if microsoft isn't known for their management, i'm sure they can manage Sonic better than whoever the fuck is doing who at sega....

 

[drganon]

I've been a Sega/Xbox kid since the early days, i'd love to see the 2 come together!!! Plus, even if microsoft isn't known for their management, i'm sure they can manage Sonic better than whoever the fuck is doing who at sega....

The last twenty years of Rare says otherwise. Once again, what is it with Microsoft fanboys and wanting them to monopolize the gaming industry. Is having third party publishers really that bad.

 

[Riky]

The same Rare that's last game is the biggest in their history?

 

[64bitmodels]

The last twenty years of Rare says otherwise. Once again, what is it with Microsoft fanboys and wanting them to monopolize the gaming industry. Is having third party publishers really that bad.

Sega and MS have had a good relationship since the Dreamcast and they've been collaborating for a LONG while now. This is one of the acqusitions Xbox could make that would make sense honestly. If i were advocating for monopolization i'd want them to buy take two next

 

[Neofire]

You think Microsoft is going to make Netflix Windows exclusive?

Your eye sight is terrible because where did I say that? The FTC would be suspect as hell to let a, essentially, monopoly having company in the PC space buy up the worlds leading streaming service.

They wouldn't let att buy T Mobile and T Mobile was nowhere near the popularity or market cap as Netflix but MS gets the green light? Yeah okay lol.

 

[64bitmodels]

Also- to all the people saying "if Xbox wasn't profitable it wouldn't be alive today"
Xbox is basically Microsoft's way to getting into the youth. They have the business sector covered with windows and office 365, they have the internet sector covered with azure, so for the people who don't care about those they offer them a nice little video game console. If microsoft threw the entire Xbox brand away, they'd be losing far more than just a source of revenue. I'm honestly surprised no one brought this up already

 

[Lognor]

Ha

Xbox hardware sales were down 11%, you know that right? This isn't a case of "we've solved the supply issue". This is lower demand.

Dude, you are clueless. There have been supply issues. This is for the year. Just recently have Xbox consoles been more readily available.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

so any positive new about xbox is all a lie then?

No

EDIT: is like the movie studios say:
The most successful movie in the second week of the 4 month and blah blah blah.

If you want to use those statements as something meaningful fine. But I you want to have a deeper/nuance analysis/debate/opinion you need more data.

A similar discourse happened with TLOU2 copies sold after 2 years.

 

[drganon]

Sega and MS have had a good relationship since the original Xbox and they've been collaborating for a LONG while now. This is one of the acqusitions Xbox could make that would make sense honestly. If i were advocating for monopolization i'd want them to buy take two next

Collaborating how? Sega releases games on every platform. The last big exclusives like that panzer dragoon game was twenty fucking years ago. Just because the fantasy of Microsoft buying every other dev/publisher gives you a hard on doesn't make it good for the industry. But I guess the concept of monopolies being bad for the consumer is something completely lost on you.

 

[64bitmodels]

Collaborating how? Sega releases games on every platform. The last big exclusives like that panzer dragoon game was twenty fucking years ago. Just because the fantasy of Microsoft buying every other dev/publisher gives you a hard on doesn't make it good for the industry. But I guess the concept of monopolies being bad for the consumer is something completely lost on you.

you didn't see the news about sega and microsoft forming an alliance to benefit each others financial interests? or how microsoft basically provided the windows code that the dreamcast ran on? or all the exclusives Sega made for the original Xbox?
not to mention the fact they're putting Yakuza and Persona on gamepass, and yakuza hasn't even left yet- they just cycle between the numbered yakuza games and the remakes + 0

Sega and Microsoft exploring cloud partnership to boost Sonic publisher's development

Microsoft and Sega have announced they are in discussions to form a "strategic alliance" that will see the Japanese pub…

www.gamesindustry.biz

This isn't some random out of the blue non sequitur acquisition like Rare was, this was an actual partnership and history Microsoft and Sega have fostered since the turn of the new millennium. I'd say it's warranted.

 

[pasterpl]

Your eye sight is terrible because where did I say that? The FTC would be suspect as hell to let a, essentially, monopoly having company in the PC space buy up the worlds leading streaming service.

They wouldn't let att buy T Mobile and T Mobile was nowhere near the popularity or market cap as Netflix but MS gets the green light? Yeah okay lol.

Just to be clear, I don’t think that ms will buy Netflix. But your analogy is shit and shows that you don’t have basic understanding of how market controls work. ATT is telecommunications company, TMobile is, you guessed, telecommunications company and one big telco company acquiring another big telco company might have negative impact on other telco companies and customers.

MS is pc software/service company without any video streaming market share, Netflix is video streaming company without any pc software/service market share, there is literally zero overlap on how this deal might impact video streaming and pc software/service markets. Obviously deal of this size would case FTC to monitor it, but there are not many things that they could accuse either ms or Netflix. In addition, you can say that ms had to make acquisition like this as Google got YouTube, Amazon have Prime Video, Apple got Apple TV+ and ms is the only big tech without video streaming business.

 

[Rivet]

XSX hasn't seemed more available in the US. Drops at major retailers have seemed further apart over the last few months. The ratio of XSS/XSX units they sell is going to have a major impact on the sales number in dollars.

Not a single big box retailer (Target, BB, Walmart, even costco) has had them in stock in a 100 mile range of my zip code, so either that's a big exception or the consoles the picture would have been sold within minutes of the picture being taken if I were to guess.

I don't know about latest weeks, but Series X are in stock at Walmart online shop or Sam's club right now... Not really hard to find.

https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/microsoftxboxseriesx/

https://www.walmart.com/ip/seort/443574645?irgwc=1&sourceid=imp_S:vxU:1VjxyIUgg3y0R:YzP4UkD3F3SmcUaBSQ0&veh=aff&wmlspartner=imp_62662&clickid=S:vxU:1VjxyIUgg3y0R:YzP4UkD3F3SmcUaBSQ0&sharedid=&affiliates_ad_id=612734&campaign_id=9383