Arguably. I'd love to see what PC GamePass does to these numbers, but Microsoft won't release figures. Anecdotally, games like Indy and Starfield, in my friend group that played them on PC they're nearly all PC GamePass and not Steam.
The math for that is probably not all that easy. They gain from it in some ways and lose from it in other ways.
More people will play a GP release, and talk about it, giving it increased social media presence, turns real gamers into ad pillars essentially.
Could increase sales if it’s a game people like.
Could decrease sales if it’s a game people don’t like…
But Early Access shouldn’t be affected much by Gamepass, people might have a lingering thought that if they just wait a bit they get the game for free, but Early Access is for a small audience who simply want to be there first or want all the content, before the GP release.
For the regular day 1 release when Gamepass is there the ccu Steam numbers should definitely be affected.
I don’t know how many PC subscribers Gamepass have. But I can play around with some numbers just for fun. (Ignore everything below if you’re not interested in vague hypothetical math.)
Let’s say 10 million PC GP subs. That means you’ll have 10 million people potentially looking at an install button.
But to see that install button they need to start the Xbox app in the first place… And it’s not a popular app. So let’s lower it to drastically, to 5 million, then we can also factor in that people might also have old subs they’ve simply forgotted about.
How many of those 5 million were interested enough in the game to have considered buying the game on Steam day 1?
Let’s throw out the number 5 percent here to keep it low.
That’ll be 250k lost Steam day 1 purchases right there. Quarter of a million.
How much would a concurrent player number lower from that?
There are different time zones and people can play in different times of the day. But no doubt, the CCU number will get lower. Maybe not drastically so but enough to make a difference if one would compare a GP game to a non-GP game.
That Starfield managed to reach 300k ccu with GP there day 1 is kinda absurd really but the hype was also through the roof and Steam was the go to place for Bethesda’s games through mods. GP there was kinda for the not-really-interested crowd. I was there on Early Access, would’ve still purchased on Steam even for the regular version, at launch there was no info if modding would work at all with Gamepass.
MS probably have the math for all of this but as you say we won’t see it.