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[MikeB]

Do you really expect a PS3 exclusive Dragon Quest to be released when the PS3 is doing disastrous weekly sales (<10,000/week average for months now) in Japan?

As for GTA V PS3 exclusive it just isn't happening when +50% of GTA IV sales are on the 360. No way.

Dragon Quest on the PS3, sure why not? Square Enix is producing Final Fantasy games for the PS3 and Level 5 is currently working on the White Knight Story. The technology for Dragon Quest on the PS3 will already be layed out.

Look at how the slimline PSP is currently selling for Japan, if you would have predicted last year that the PSP would considerably be outselling the Nintendo DS for many weeks at this point, you would probably have been made fun of by fanboys on this forum.

With regard to a new GTA becoming console exclusive on the PS3, I don't rule out the possibility. If the 360 slow in sales considerably in 2009 like anticipated and the PS3 sells much faster, there can be good reasons to do so.

Rockstar will want the next big GTA release to become far more impressive than GTA IV is. They know they have a lot of untapped SPU potential on this platform and they already publically stated how very important a default harddrive and more space on disc is important to them. I do expect a 360 version myself in some form though.

 

[legend166]

Dragon Quest on the PS3, sure why not? Square Enix is producing Final Fantasy games for the PS3 and Level 5 is currently working on the White Knight Story. The technology for Dragon Quest on the PS3 will already be layed out.

Because the PS3 is selling like crap? SE are not a charity. They've always gone with the highest selling system. What makes you think they'll put a DQ on the PS3 ahead of the Wii? The DQ spinoff on the Wii has outsold every single PS3 game released. There are no reasons to make a DQ game for the PS3. Fanboy wet dreams don't count.

It's a stupid argument anyway, it's staying on the DS.

Look at how the slimline PSP is currently selling for Japan, if you would have predicted last year that the PSP would considerably be outselling the Nintendo DS for many weeks at this point, you would probably have been made fun of by fanboys on this forum.

Yeah, and it still struggles to get more than 5 pieces of software in the top 50. It's selling on the back of media capabilities, piracy, and Monster Hunter.

With regard to a new GTA becoming console exclusive on the PS3, I don't rule out the possibility. If the 360 slow in sales considerably in 2009 like anticipated and the PS3 sells much faster, there can be good reasons to do so.

Rockstar will want the next big GTA release to become far more impressive than GTA IV is. They know they have a lot of untapped SPU potential on this platform and they already publically stated how very important a default harddrive and more space on disc is important to them. I do expect a 360 version myself in some form though.

I don't even know what to say to this. Are you Tabris' alt account?

 

[Jocchan]

These figures are definitive proof for one point: it doesn't matter how things are going, in the end everything will be fine as long as FAITH and LOVE are there.
Put flowers in your drives! Make love, not

Spoiler

console

war!

 

[MikeB]

@ legend166

Because the PS3 is selling like crap? SE are not a charity. They've always gone with the highest selling system.

No not always, they sold games for MSX, WonderSwan, etc. But their games usually hugely impact console sales for Japan. I am sure they are going to continue to follow market trends closely.

What makes you think they'll put a DQ on the PS3 ahead of the Wii?

Depends upon how ambitous they want to be with regard to a new home console release of Dragon Quest, but if suitable for the Wii then why not create both a Wii and an enhanced PS3 version?

In any case, for a such games Blu-Ray can prove to very beneficial. They already stated that for them the PS3 is the best console for realizing their goals, best fit to their creative freedom and imagination.

I don't even know what to say to this. Are you Tabris' alt account?

No, just stating some reasons why this could make sense.

 

[Xyphie]

Dragon Quest on the PS3, sure why not? Square Enix is producing Final Fantasy games for the PS3 and Level 5 is currently working on the White Knight Story. The technology for Dragon Quest on the PS3 will already be layed out.

DQ X is going to be on the DS/Wii unless a miracle happens in Japan. Just take a look at the software charts for Japan and you'll see why.

Look at how the slimline PSP is currently selling for Japan, if you would have predicted last year that the PSP would considerably be outselling the Nintendo DS for many weeks at this point, you would probably have been made fun of by fanboys on this forum.

Software sales still not so great for the PSP. DS still usually has 30 or more titles of the 50 titles in the software charts. When software doesn't sell hardware sales matters very little.

With regard to a new GTA becoming console exclusive on the PS3, I don't rule out the possibility. If the 360 slow in sales considerably in 2009 like anticipated and the PS3 sells much faster, there can be good reasons to do so.

Anticipated by who? You?

Rockstar will want the next big GTA release to become far more impressive than GTA IV is. They know they have a lot of untapped SPU potential on this platform and they already publically stated how very important a default harddrive and more space on disc is important to them. I do expect a 360 version myself in some form though.

What Rockstar employees want matters very little. Take-Two (or possibly EA in the future) decides which platforms GTA V will be on and it sure as hell isn't going to be exclusive just because some Rockstar employees want it to be. Companies loves money.

 

[MikeB]

DQ X is going to be on the DS/Wii unless a miracle happens in Japan. Just take a look at the software charts for Japan and you'll see why.

I wasn't talking about the DS game, of course that's not going to hit the PS3. More likely would maybe be a PSP port at some point in the future.

 

[jarrod]

I wasn't talking about the DS game, of course that's not going to hit the PS3. More likely would maybe be a PSP port at some point in the future.

The aren't going to be any DQ games on either PSP or PS3 for the rest of the generation. Hori's firmly in Nintendo's camp, and DQ's doing the best it ever has generally too.

 

[Kafel]

But here's a CNET projection

No.

 

[Jocchan]

I've just noticed the new thread title :lol

 

[Kafel]

Good job mod. :lol

 

[Pureauthor]

You know, putting 4 DQ games (6 if we count the spinoffs) on a single system would tend to show a bit of focus for that particularly system, MikeB. SE has no reason whatsoever to stop putting DQ on the DS.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

the PS3 should be able to significantly outperform the PS2 in 2016

I agree. Who the fuck is going to be buying PS2s in 2016?

 

[Narcosis]

If DragonQuest's next game even shows up on a Sony platform, I'd bet my money on PSP. In fact, I'd think that given the hardware situation in Japan as of late, and the fact that DQ is a series driven by classic 2D gameplay and sprite graphics, the next DQ game could be released on both DS and PSP, maybe even mobile phone as well (since SE seems to have interest in that market.... *cries about Parasite Eve 3*).

 

[Davidion]

So this is yet another typical dillweed Sony fanboy market analysis? Great.

 

[MikeB]

Good job mod. :lol

IMO a bit pathetic. Probably a fanboy who can't handle the provided data. :lol

BTW, I am a fanboy of what exactly?

 

[Pureauthor]

IMO a bit pathetic. Probably a fanboy who can't handle the provided data. :lol

BTW, I am a fanboy of what exactly?

Half of me wants to say 'Sony', because that's what you're shilling for.

The other half wants to say 'stupidity', because you're a poster boy for it right now.

 

[MikeB]

Half of me wants to say 'Sony', because that's what you're shilling for.

The other half wants to say 'stupidity', because you're a poster boy for it right now.

IMO Sony is a good company, but there are many other companies which produce good products. I certainly don't stick to Sony products if that's what you're implying? I got an Acer laptop for example instead of a Sony Vaio.

I think it's useful to collect the data, I couldn't find any good summary anywhere based on all the different data coming from different regions.

 

[jman2050]

Fanboys are bad. Fanboys that try to hide their bias behind a thin veil of "objectivity" are far worse though.

I'll take all the Drinky Crow's and Tabris's of the world over this garbage.

 

[Pureauthor]

I couldn't find any good summary anywhere based on all the different data coming from different regions.

Well, it still doesn't exist, if that's what you're implying.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I thought this thread got locked ages ago?

 

[RubberJohnny]

IMO Sony is a good company, but there are many other companies which produce good products. I certainly don't stick to Sony products if that's what you're implying? I got an Acer laptop for example instead of a Sony Vaio.

I think it's useful to collect the data, I couldn't find any good summary anywhere based on all the different data coming from different regions.

I think it means consoles, considering that's what the thread you made is about.

 

[GameGamer]

Good to see that graph doing it's job.

 

[jarrod]

You know, putting 4 DQ games (6 if we count the spinoffs) on a single system would tend to show a bit of focus for that particularly system, MikeB. SE has no reason whatsoever to stop putting DQ on the DS.

It's actually seven counting Itadaki DS. :lol

Just for comparison...

PS1: 2 DQs / 2 spinoffs
PS2: 2 DQs / 3 spinoffs
PSP: 1 spinoff

FC: 4 DQs
SFC: 4 DQs / 1 spinoff
GBC: 2 DQs / 2 spinoffs
GBA: 4 spinoffs
DS: 4 DQs / 3 spinoffs
Wii: 1 spinoff (so far)

If DragonQuest's next game even shows up on a Sony platform, I'd bet my money on PSP. In fact, I'd think that given the hardware situation in Japan as of late, and the fact that DQ is a series driven by classic 2D gameplay and sprite graphics, the next DQ game could be released on both DS and PSP, maybe even mobile phone as well (since SE seems to have interest in that market.... *cries about Parasite Eve 3*).

Give it up. You have a better chance of seeing FFXIII on Wii than mainline DQ on PS-anything.

The only thing with even a remote chance imo might be "Anniversary Edition" style TOSE ports of DQ I/II/III.... and even then, DS would still be the more likely home for such a project.

 

[FrankT]

Just Deserts

 

[besada]

My first child to the mod who changed the title.

 

[radioheadrule83]

I thought this thread got locked ages ago?

I think it remains open for lulz

 

[Scrow]

Good to see that graph doing it's job.

providing false hope?

 

[Pureauthor]

providing false hope?

And by extension, providing the lulz.

 

[Shogmaster]

Mike, go outside and get some fresh air. Seriously.

 

[MikeB]

Well, it still doesn't exist, if that's what you're implying.

Well I asked for feedback and corrections. Sadly there was a lack thereof, mainly just some people contacting me privately providing feedback and support.

Feel free to finally dig up some better data.

I think the announced shipment data speaks for itself. My analysis wasn't off in general, if you consider both platforms would have yet unsold units left in stock at retailers.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Because the PS3 is selling like crap? SE are not a charity. They've always gone with the highest selling system. What makes you think they'll put a DQ on the PS3 ahead of the Wii? The DQ spinoff on the Wii has outsold every single PS3 game released.

Really? Ouch.

 

[Jocchan]

I've just noticed the graph shows a total of over 250 million consoles sold by the end of this generation.

 

[Dot50Cal]

Oh god MikeB. :lol

 

[Sharp]

Fanboys are bad. Fanboys that try to hide their bias behind a thin veil of "objectivity" are far worse though.

I'll take all the Drinky Crow's and Tabris's of the world over this garbage.

Drinky isn't a fanboy.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Wow, I can't believe someone posted that graph seriously.

 

[Pug]

Mike do you actually play games? Do you actually like games? If so why worry about stats, sales figures and possible sales figures. Its meaningless unless you work directly for any of these companies.

 

[MikeB]

I've just noticed the graph shows a total of over 250 million consoles sold by the end of this generation.

The anticipated sales suggest that it won't be the end of this generation, just like the PS2 generation isn't over yet. Since the 360 launched the PS2 still sold many more units than the 360 did worldwide.

Placing the Wii, 360 and PS3 in the same generation of consoles is subjective, from a technology point of view they aren't (in the past generations of consoles were clasified by the CPU or storage media, which is also subjective) and probably from a lifecycle point of view as well.

If I speak of the current generation of consoles, I include all currently available home consoles implying also the PS2. IMO that's the most objective approach. I got slammed by some fanboys for the last year, but the PS2 sales were still quite impressive (better than the 360 and PS3)

 

[BravoSuperStar]

Lulz. this is why I like neogaf. You just don't get fanboys of this level and quality on other forums. I wonder if MikeB ever actually enjoys games beyond analyzing sales and promoting sony.

 

[manueldelalas]

Dragon Quest on the PS3, sure why not? Square Enix is producing Final Fantasy games for the PS3 and Level 5 is currently working on the White Knight Story. The technology for Dragon Quest on the PS3 will already be layed out.

Look at how the slimline PSP is currently selling for Japan, if you would have predicted last year that the PSP would considerably be outselling the Nintendo DS for many weeks at this point, you would probably have been made fun of by fanboys on this forum.

With regard to a new GTA becoming console exclusive on the PS3, I don't rule out the possibility. If the 360 slow in sales considerably in 2009 like anticipated and the PS3 sells much faster, there can be good reasons to do so.

Rockstar will want the next big GTA release to become far more impressive than GTA IV is. They know they have a lot of untapped SPU potential on this platform and they already publically stated how very important a default harddrive and more space on disc is important to them. I do expect a 360 version myself in some form though.

Dragon Quest is not coming to the PS3.
Dragon Quest is not coming to the PSP.
Live with it, if you like Dragon Quest, buy a DS.
If you are a fan of the Dragon Quest games, buy a DS and a WIi.
PSP is selling because it is a good MP4 player, because of the pirates and because of Monster Hunter, other than that, it's software sales are horrible.
You should worry more about Level 5 ever releasing White Knight Story and S-E ever releasing Final Fantasy 13.
The only way a GTA is exclusive, is that it is made for the Wii or DS.
If they make another PS3 GTA, it will be an update to GTA4 (see: GTA VC and GTA SA) and it will come to both XBOX 360 and PC.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The anticipated sales suggest that it won't be the end of this generation, just like the PS2 generation isn't over yet. Since the 360 launched the PS2 still sold many more units than the 360 did worldwide.

Placing the Wii, 360 and PS3 in the same generation of consoles is subjective, from a technology point of view they aren't (in the past generations of consoles were clasified by the CPU or storage media, which is also subjective) and probably from a lifecycle point of view as well.

If I speak of the current generation of consoles, I include all currently available home consoles implying also the PS2. IMO that's the most objective approach. I got slammed by some fanboys for the last year, but the PS2 sales were still quite impressive (better than the 360 and PS3)

I would consider that more of an indictment of the 360 and PS3 than anything.

 

[Cheez-It]

Market analysts are often so far off and pumping out data which simply contradicts with one another. Sometimes it makes you wonder if they are worth their money, doesn't it? ;-)

However they have to predict based on many llikelihoods and endless unknows (How big of an impact will a certain game have? This without knowing beforehand if there will be delays or if the game will be any good. They usually lack the any insight with regard to how fast and to what extend console features and console specific game engines will be able to evolve. And the exact timing and extend of possible pricedrops, introductions of new models, etc aren't set in stone).

But here's a CNET projection with regard to their future outlook and the one thing which makes this analyst's prior projections interesting is that he predicted back in early 2007 that Nintendo wouldn't be able to meet demand with the Nintendo Wii until 2009 (so far he's been right about this from a worldwide perspective).

In this chart there is no significant sign of a sales slowdown for the PS3 by the end of 2012. If we assume the projection is roughly accurate and the PS3 really does have a 10 year shelf space, the PS3 should be able to significantly outperform the PS2 in 2016, the PS2 will likely peak at around 140 million units sold and the PS3 may reach 10s of millions more people.

Did you really look at that graph and think 'hmmm, this looks reasonable, I should make a post revolving around it!' ?

I never thought I would see anyone posting that graph seriously on this particular forum. I suppose that was an unreasonable assumption...

Placing the Wii, 360 and PS3 in the same generation of consoles is subjective, from a technology point of view they aren't (in the past generations of consoles were clasified by the CPU or storage media, which is also subjective) and probably from a lifecycle point of view as well.

Ahh. I understand now.

 

[MikeB]

Mike do you actually play games? Do you actually like games? If so why worry about stats, sales figures and possible sales figures. Its meaningless unless you work directly for any of these companies.

Of course I am a gamer, but I am probably a bit older the average person on NeoGAF. I follow sales mainly because I know install base has an impact with regard to games developers adopting and adapting towards new technology. Developers were slow initially to do proper Amiga ports due to the Atari ST's cheaper price and headstart on the market.

I have seen many NPD and other sales thread on here, so many people in here seem to care. I understand that this board is US dominate and some would like to focuss mainly on this, likewise I am from Europe and I am most interested in European data (the most innovative games developers [many of which have been active within the European demoscene] on the Amiga, were from Europe).

 

[Sharp]

The anticipated sales suggest that it won't be the end of this generation, just like the PS2 generation isn't over yet. Since the 360 launched the PS2 still sold many more units than the 360 did worldwide.

Placing the Wii, 360 and PS3 in the same generation of consoles is subjective, from a technology point of view they aren't (in the past generations of consoles were clasified by the CPU or storage media, which is also subjective) and probably from a lifecycle point of view as well.

If I speak of the current generation of consoles, I include all currently available home consoles implying also the PS2. IMO that's the most objective approach. I got slammed by some fanboys for the last year, but the PS2 sales were still quite impressive (better than the 360 and PS3)

What you're saying isn't really true, though. The NeoGEO was lightyears beyond competing consoles at the time, but it was still considered to be part of the same generation. Contrarily, the NES was still selling quite well when the Genesis made its debut, but it was not considered to be part of the same generation. Besides, PS2 sales have slowed down a lot recently in the US. In Japan they were already pretty much finished a year ago (and I realize that it's still selling close to the PS3 and 360 there but that's really not an indication that it's not dead). And while I have absolutely no idea how it's selling in Europe, other than Singstar and PES/FIFA not a lot of titles appear for it in the European charts, and in most countries I'm pretty sure it is being consistently outsold by all three next-gen consoles.

Now, I realize that you'd like to focus on the 360 vs. PS3 thing. That's fine. It could be made sort of exciting, I guess. But the chart you posted is in no way a realistic projection for the console market. Among other things, I believe it predicts that Sony will sell more PS3s this calendar year than they are shipping this fiscal year, which is more reminiscent of ioi than a serious analysis. You can keep posting it if you want, but people are going to call you out on it, and they are going to laugh at you.

 

[pswii60]

Here's the full graph:

 

[MikeB]

Did you really look at that graph and think 'hmmm, this looks reasonable, I should make a post revolving around it!' ?

I never thought I would see anyone posting that graph seriously on this particular forum. I suppose that was an unreasonable assumption...

Many websites reported on this report and I have seen forum discussions.

Overall I think it's likely we will see a similar trend worldwide. At least I expect 360 sales to drop significantly next year, this due to a varierty of reasons.

 

[oldergamer]

Mike B is a plain as dirt Fanboy. Anyone that uses charts made up by TJhooker of the SDF website is a total moron.

 

[pswii60]

Many websites reported on this report and I have seen forum discussions.

Overall I think it's likely we will see a similar trend worldwide. At least I expect 360 sales to drop significantly next year, this due to a varierty of reasons.

I expect condom sales to drop significantly next year, this is due to a variety of reasons.

In all seriousness though, hasn't this generation taught you anything? You can't predict the future. We simply don't know what each of the big three have up their sleeves.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Keep up the good work MikeB.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I expect condom sales to drop significantly next year, this is due to a variety of reasons.

In all seriousness though, hasn't this generation taught you anything? You can't predict the future. We simply don't know what each of the big three have up their sleeves.

I beg to differ. Shy of one big surprise (the Wii) this generation has been about as predictable as any other, which makes this "analysis" all the more funny.

 

[Vinci]

Barring the DS-bound DQ games being glitchy, horrific messes and selling less than a million each in Japan, the DQ series is going to be Nintendo friendly for the foreseeable future.

If and when S-E and Level 5 decide to launch FF XIII and WKS, it will be interesting to see how they sell based on their reasonably high expectations for games of such scale. If they underperform, where the hell do you think S-E and Level 5 will go next? It won't be PS3 again.