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[Miles X]

I think the situation in the home sector is both saturation at certain prices and economic depression.
In fact, 360 did perfectly fine, with almost 300k in its...7th year. And still costing 200 $. But it's what PS3 and Wii did that scares me, and make me think there's something going on not only linked to the fact prices are still "high" for a complete last mass penetration of the platforms...

However, no one saw this. Neither Nirolak

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35012400&postcount=517

Wasn't 3DS at 4.1 end of 2011? Nintendo data and jvm's article suggests so. Even if it is around the 200k mark that's disastrous for 3DS. Normally systems are kinda slow after their first christmas, but the 3DS has been out for just under a year and just got a significant price cut and 2 big games. What more can Nintendo do save for a redesign later this year?

If it is sub 200k this month then summer is going to look abysmal.

 

[mujun]

A poor showing in the US isn't arguably the worst possible scenario for Sony or Nintendo because they are in a stronger position in the other worldwide markets.

Looking at the media create numbers, PS3 isn't collapsing in Japan so those sales are going to be more statistically significant if the NA market is depressed.

Every month. NPD threads are for U.S sales.

 

[Dunlop]

Wow, I've been sick as a dog and forgot about this, can't believe how sharp the decline is.

I'm happy for MS at least

 

[SapientWolf]

The investors that matter have access to this data, they pay NPD big bucks for it.

Doesn't that start to slide into an insider trading grey area?

 

[Solid07]

This comes to no surprise as those systems were out long enough for almost every gamer to get the hardwares they need.

 

[jman2050]

Doesn't that start to slide into an insider trading grey area?

I thought insider trading only referred to using information from within the company itself. NPD is an independent third party.

It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free. We also get weekly US and global box office updates on the top 40 movies in theater count, revenue, and projected budget. For. Free.

Good for them. That's not really relevant to whether NPD has the right to withhold their own information, which is all I'm saying.

 

[Mpl90]

Wasn't 3DS at 4.1 end of 2011? Nintendo data and jvm's article suggests so. Even if it is around the 200k mark that's disasterous for 3DS. Normally closes are kinda slow after their first christmas, but the 3DS has been out for just under a year and just got a significant price cut and 2 big games. What more can Nintendo do save for a redesign later this year?

If it is sub 200k this month then summer is going to look abysmol.

No, 4.1 million was an estimate, since we never had an official word from NPD. But thanks to Nintendo, we had last month the official NPD numbers for December. So, this should be the number if the numbers from IGN article are from NPD and not from Nintendo's internal trackers.

And 205k would be good, not disasterous.

 

[Petrae]

So PS3 > Wii?

Meaning that Wii sold at most 139k, down 57% yoy or more. 0_0

Your numbers are a bit bearish, but the ranking is correct.

 

[Nirolak]

If we suppose Nintendo is talking about NPD datas, and not internal datas...
At October, they were at over 1.65 millions. From now on, let's just pick the number, without the "over".
At November, they did "over" 795k. NPD Datas. So, 1.650.000 + 795.000 = 2.445.000
Then, for December, we hadn't the official Nintendo PR with NPD datas, but one much earlier, with the 4 millions figure. Then, with the investor meeting, we had finally the concrete NPD datas for December, since Nintendo uses them for the quarterly investor meetings

Dec, 2011:

360 - 1.73m
3DS - 1.60m
Wii - 1.06m
PS3 - 0.95m
DS - 0.63m
PSP - 0.26m

So, 2.445.000 + 1.600.000 = 4.045.000

Considering the 4.250.000 figure without the "over", we have a base of 205k. So, 3DS should have done at least 205k for the month, if the report in the IGN article is based on NPD datas.

Would we be getting approximately 300K for Mario as well, or would this be the only useable data from their statements?

 

[jvm]

Just to point out: NPD will have 90%+ (est.) coverage of the U.S. video game retail market when they include Wal-mart. (I forgot before they also have TRU.) This will make their data even more valuable, since the margin of error should go down dramatically. They will likely retain, or even pick up, subscriptions and justifiably charge more for it.

I don't see how they will be going out of business any time soon, as much as some may wish for it.

Now, if only they could report monthly on digital data with some break-out categories like we get for hardware/software/accessories now...

Edit: And just to be crystal clear, I'm ambivalent about NPD's business. I am happy they cooperate with me, and I try to leave my personal desires out of it. I think we all know we'd love to have FREE DATA ALL THE TIME, but that's simply not realistic.

 

[Doodis]

Just to point out: NPD will have 90%+ (est.) coverage of the U.S. video game retail market when they include Wal-mart.

Sorry if I missed it in the thread, but do we know when this will happen?

 

[jvm]

Sorry if I missed it in the thread, but do we know when this will happen?

Don't know yet. Only know that January 2012 doesn't include it.

 

[Petrae]

Now, if only they could report monthly on digital data with some break-out categories like we get for hardware/software/accessories now...

Sounds like we're going to get quarterly breakdowns of such spending, based on comments from NPD's Liam Callahan.

 

[jvm]

Sounds like we're going to get quarterly breakdowns of such spending, based on comments from NPD's Liam Callahan.

I don't see a breakdown necessarily. They've never broken out the non-retail segment before. But happy to be wrong!

 

[Clear]

Every month. NPD threads are for U.S sales.

Yeah, I understand that. What's wrong with placing those US sales figures in a global context though, especially when those numbers are exceptionally low across the board.

There's not a lot else to say given how scanty the information is.

 

[jett]

Just to point out: NPD will have 90%+ (est.) coverage of the U.S. video game retail market when they include Wal-mart. (I forgot before they also have TRU.) This will make their data even more valuable, since the margin of error should go down dramatically. They will likely retain, or even pick up, subscriptions and justifiably charge more for it.

I don't see how they will be going out of business any time soon, as much as some may wish for it.

Now, if only they could report monthly on digital data with some break-out categories like we get for hardware/software/accessories now...

Edit: And just to be crystal clear, I'm ambivalent about NPD's business. I am happy they cooperate with me, and I try to leave my personal desires out of it. I think we all know we'd love to have FREE DATA ALL THE TIME, but that's simply not realistic.

Can you explain why Media-Create releases data free of charge but with NPD it's like pulling teeth?

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Doesn't that start to slide into an insider trading grey area?

Nah, the big players always have access to the best data. It's always been that way. My wife is a stock analyst and they pay Bloomberg some ungodly amount for access to their data stream. NPD is a third party that gathers data and then sells it. That's all. Insider trading would be if an individual or organization had access to Nintendo's earnings report the day before it came out and bought or sold stock based on that knowledge.

Anyway, on topic.

These are pretty ugly stats, looks like the usual gift card fueled post Christmas bump didn't happen or hasn't happened yet.

 

[saucylion]

A poor showing in the US isn't arguably the worst possible scenario for Sony or Nintendo because they are in a stronger position in the other worldwide markets.

Looking at the media create numbers, PS3 isn't collapsing in Japan so those sales are going to be more statistically significant if the NA market is depressed.

that just doesn't make any sense. The United States is the biggest market in the world for video games, unless you start comparing continents to it. So massive drops in the United States are much worse for sony than massive drops in any other country. It doesn't matter if those drops mean it could outsell the 360 worldwide. Sony would much rather sell a bunch of ps3s be outsold by the 360, than sell much less and be the best selling console of the year.

 

[Petrae]

These are pretty ugly stats, looks like the usual gift card fueled post Christmas bump didn't happen or hasn't happened yet.

I was thinking that gift card redemption would at least help software sales for residual Q4 2011 titles... but this never happened. Unless you count the ton of Skylanders stuff that moved in January.

 

[Mpl90]

Would we be getting approximately 300K for Mario as well, or would this be the only useable data from their statements?

For Mario Kart, we only know that it did just a bit better than what it did in December in Japan for Famitsu. So, 1.1 millions.
This would mean over 200k for Mario Kart 7 in January.

 

[Petrae]

This would mean over 200k for Mario Kart 7 in January.

That is not the correct number. Extrapolation is too high.

 

[RatskyWatsky]

Any idea how well FFXIII-2 sold?

 

[Miles X]

Any idea how well FFXIII-2 sold?

Wasn't in this months data, same as SCV

 

[Mpl90]

That is not the correct number. Extrapolation is too high.

So, more like 150k...

 

[Nirolak]

Alright, in this case I'll just go with the 3DS number since it's the only one people seem fairly confident on. Thanks.

 

[Petrae]

So, more like 150k...

That's a more acceptable number.

 

[Nirolak]

Should I go with the Mario Kart approximation as well or no?

We're not going to get anything else, so...

 

[Stinkles]

Can you explain why Media-Create releases data free of charge but with NPD it's like pulling teeth?

freecreditreport.com

 

[Chris1964]

It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free.

What Japanese trackers give for free is 10% of what they give to subscribers and the cost for full data is ultra high.

 

[mboojigga]

So PS3 > Wii?

Meaning that Wii sold at most 139k, down 57% yoy or more. 0_0



It's been beaten to death in previous threads, but NPD does what 3 independent trackers do for Japanese sales, but the Japanese trackers do it for free. We also get weekly US and global box office updates on the top 40 movies in theater count, revenue, and projected budget. For. Free.

Live is a service that charges for online play and SEN doesn't. Welcome to the world of choices and perspective. NPD went a route that nets them money vs media create. It still has nothing to do with us receiving this information unless we pay like the other companies that choose to do so.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Can you explain why Media-Create releases data free of charge but with NPD it's like pulling teeth?

Maybe because there's competition in the Japanese market for this stuff? AFAIK NPD is the only one who tracks the US market.

I don't know.

Edit:

What Japanese trackers give for free is 10% of what they give to subscribers and the cost for full data is ultra high.

Didn't know this. Interesting.

Thanks

 

[speculawyer]

Ouch . . . those overall sales numbers are very depressing.

 

[added_time]

When I look at that top 10 games, it makes sense that the game industry is down. You are either ok with buying the same stuff over and over or you aren't. I feel like the number of people that aren't is slowly increasing.
A lot of people are probably bored of the 3rd or 4th game in a series released within a single console generation. There needs to be some fresh ideas and new series, but with the current aversion to risk within the industry - I'm not even sure that new consoles will bring those ideas.

I can't even remember the last time I bought a retail game simply because there is nothing for me. Even the number of downloadable titles I'm buying has been decreasing lately. I hope something gets exciting soon.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

What were they in it for?

The novelty of the gimmick

 

[Road]

Alright, in this case I'll just go with the 3DS number since it's the only one people seem fairly confident on. Thanks.

I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).

 

[DMeisterJ]

That 205k 3DS number involves a fairly heavy form of rounding and optimism.

And even then, it's nothing short of lackluster.

I don't have an issue with it being in the OP though, I'll just take it with a mountain of salt.

 

[Nirolak]

I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).

Fair enough.

 

[Mpl90]

I would just leave the 360 number there.

We already have people saying that the Wii+PS3 number is wrong and the 3DS extrapolation involves so much rounding that it could be, like, 50k off.

We only know the PS3 was the 2nd best selling console (whether that includes handhelds or not, god knows).

Well, I've just taken the numbers from past Nintendo PRs, which used NPD datas. And then, the numbers you took from this

So, still NPD datas

I think the 205k estimate can be considered pretty reliable. At least this one.

 

[Petrae]

I think the 205k estimate can be considered pretty reliable. At least this one.

Unfortunately, no. That's not a reliable extrapolation at all.

 

[AgentP]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

 

[LQX]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

No software? Are you kidding? Or just speaking on the month of January?

 

[DamSea]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

To play the years and years of software that has been released up to this point?

 

[Petrae]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

I believe that some sales may be replacements, but there's also residual effects of holiday marketing and a formidable slate of existing software for consumers to select from. True, there weren't any new games for January-- which was an industry-wide problem-- but Q4 and points before have filled the Xbox 360 library with a ton of options.

The "casual Kinect crap" phase appears to be waning.

 

[allan-bh]

I think we all know we'd love to have FREE DATA ALL THE TIME, but that's simply not realistic.

It is with Media Create in Japan

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

Oh, it's just all of those people that hate the other platforms. Clearly, that's a lot of hate given the numbers.

 

[Road]

Well, I've just taken the numbers from past Nintendo PRs, which used NPD datas. And then, the numbers you took from this

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/120127/img/16l.jpg

So, still NPD datas

I think the 205k estimate can be considered pretty reliable. At least this one.

As I said, too much rounding and estimating involved. The error just goes escalating.

And now someone said that number is wrong, so, yeah.

3DS sold between 150k and 250k is our best guess.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I can't figure out who and why people are buying 360s. No software to dirve sales, must be casual Kinect crap and people replacing non-S models.

Someone posts this every month, and MS always answer in their PR:

During the month of January, Xbox 360 held five of the top 10 U.S. console game titles including: “Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim,” “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3,” “Battlefield 3,” “NBA 2K12” and “Just Dance 3.” (Source: NPD Group, January 2012)

People buy 360s to play these games. What's driving the other consoles? Look at the rest of the top 10.

 

[jmdajr]

I think some people were slow to jump on the HDTV bandwagon. Yes, there are still some if you can believe. A 360 would be one way to make good use of it.

 

[Petrae]

I think some people were slow to jump on the HDTV bandwagon. Yes, there are still some if you can believe. A 360 would be one way to make good use of it.

I like this post. With the Wii not support high-definition resolutions, it's possible that the Xbox 360 was the next logical step for families looking to upgrade. I saw this happen a lot during my tour of duty in gaming retail over the last couple of holiday seasons.

 

[Dabanton]

Are people taking AgentP seriously this is a guy who wrote the following with what i presume was a straight face.

I've been playing FPS since you were in diapers, R3 is one of the best FPS of all time IMO. So let your hate for Sony let you pass up great games, you will be left with less games to choose from.