prag16
Banned
Agree.
They really do need to get TW101, Wii Fit U, and Pikmin out the door... It's nuts that none of them yet have release dates...
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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Agree.
They really do need to get TW101, Wii Fit U, and Pikmin out the door... It's nuts that none of them yet have release dates...
it's interesting trivia, but I still don't see how so many people are arriving at the same conclusion (GC level sales, Wii U is doomed, etc)
what about these 2 months of poor sales is going to be so devastating to Wii U? and are you accounting for the fact GC launched at $200 and dropped down to $99 less than a year later?
Also based on WW response. The US sales would be much less worrying if Japan didn't have similarly low sales, or what we know of the EU was better.
Look, I'm not saying it's literally impossible for tides to turn. I believe it is very unlikely given what we know so far. It is extremely uncommon for a system to sell this poorly out of the gate only to suddenly rocket to success later on.
prag16
Banned
He actually indicated that moderate success was the unlikely best case scenario.
In reality we just don't know. And Nintendo WILL unleash the heavy hitters before long. If it ends up with gamecube numbers I'll still be happy... There still will have been plenty of fun games along the way.
Except Nintendo games won't turn into vaporware.
shinra-bansho
Member
Chalkboard time.
Given current information, that's a perfectly sound assessment. You don't seem to realise the magnitude of how bad the month of Jan was. And how bad it's likely to get going forward without a significant catalyst for change.
I don't know, X looks pretty amazing mang.
SolarPowered
Member
Tell that to Pikmin 3. Goddamn that took forever to get ready...
Yes, I think N64 numbers are the realistic upper bound, and PS3/360 numbers are very, very unlikely. That is my assessment based on how terrible these early numbers have been, not just in the US, but worldwide.
Absolutely, it's completely fine to enjoy a system even if it isn't especially popular. Just as it's fine to enjoy the Vita even if it doesn't sell well, either.
All this means is that your personal tastes may, at the moment, not jive with the market generally. And that's okay. No one said your tastes in fun have to popular.
hey, someone saw what I did there.
your line of thinking seems to end too soon
what about the slow sales is making you so confident about the upper limits of Wii U's potential? would you agree most people don't even know Wii U exists yet?
about 5 (of my) posts back I outlined a way in which Nintendo could realistically achieve great sales, using advertising and blue ocean games to reach beyond the core gamers. you don't seem to have any logic behind your thoughts outside of poor Jan/Feb sales = console will never be very successful
shinra-bansho
Member
Ah, yes. Soft launch. All according to keikaku. Marketing. Awareness. That'll fix everything. It couldn't simply be that - shock, horror - people are aware of the product and simply don't find it an appealing one.
The blue ocean is no longer blue.
The blue ocean is no longer blue.
Nintendo has entered the HD era of gaming, and all arrows point to Nintendo is struggling with the transition.
statham said:
I'm a very data-driven person who tries very hard to be objective regardless of my personal preferences. Just yesterday, I referred to the PS3 as the worst financial disaster in console history.
This doesn't mean you can't like the PS3, but the numbers are the numbers. Similarly, it's completely fine if you personally enjoy the Wii U but the data so far has all pointed in a single direction. The Wii U will almost certainly sell less than the PS3, but also lose Nintendo much less money in the process (if it loses money at all). That would be my guess based on what data we have so far.
MrCookiepants
Member
I could ask my roommates, my family etc. I'll bet most know what the Wii is, but not the Wii U. there's a definite lack of awareness due to lack of advertising. there's also a lack of big games.
ambientmystic
Member
Apparently you haven't been here long enough. Opiate is the one of the most objective and logical gaffers on the forums. Personal emotions/preferences almost never factor into his posts, he just calls it as it is with the hard data available to him. His tag says it all.
InsaneZero
Member
There's a reason for that tag.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The 3DS is barely getting by in the US, I doubt Nintendo is thinking about a 4DS right now; especially with the handheld market being cannibalized by smartphones and tablets. I'm not sure what Nintendo can do once that money printer is shut off.
You're right, it is early. But the problem is that right now, the WiiU is not seen as a next gen system. It's virtually an Xbox 360 without Live, and no games. I don't see how Nintendo can turn that perception around once the next gen consoles hit and the games look better than WiiU/360/PS3 ports. This isn't 2006 anymore, enough people have HDTVs to fully take advantage of the next gen the minute it starts in November or December.
I also consider myself to be very logical and can mostly avoid emotion and bias.
I'd reiterate my confusion over the conclusion that so many are arriving at due to slow Jan/Feb sales, but I've already typed it enough. I don't agree with the premise that the market has shrunk, or that blue ocean games can't be successful again. these would be extremely bold claims to make.
I understand the concept of looking at past trends and applying it to Wii U, but that only gets you so far. I like to factor in everything we know.
prag16
Banned
They won't have to reverse a perception except among nerds like us.
Most people never even have heard of the thing or have no idea what it is yet.
For the record I don't think any system this gen will even surpass the 3rd place LTD from this gen. The landscape is different and lets not be so sure Sony and MSFT will sprint out of the gate and set the world on fire.
Fair enough. Surely you would have to admit that past trends (hard data) is probably more reliable a gauge than possible "advertising" and "blue ocean games".
bigtroyjon
Member
wow, when the thing that you are using to convince people that the Wii U isn't in bad shape is that "people don't know about it", things are looking really bleak.
Box of Bunnies
Banned
A finished game being pushed from the start of the year to the end of it to facilitate a multiplatform release.
"Nobody talking about new Wii U projects, only those they canceled."
I agree, data is not the only thing that matters; context matters too. For example, the PS3's surprisingly slow start in 2006 was at least marginally ameliorated by the fact that we already knew MGSIV was coming, that GTA IV was coming, that FFXIII was coming, that Call of Duty was coming.
Similarly, one of the primary reasons people were less concerned with the 3DS' slow start in comparison to the Vita's slow start is that we knew the 3DS had big games coming. Pokemon was coming; Monster Hunter was coming; Mario Kart was coming; New Super Mario Brothers was coming.
So if we have reason to expect large games on the horizon, then a slower start can be partially remedied. Keep in mind that neither the PS3 nor the 3DS completely solved their problems; as I said, the Playstation 3 is still the worst financial disaster in console history, and the 3DS is still significantly underperforming the DS in both the EU and the US.
The Wii U is much closer to the Vita than it is the PS3/3DS, though; like the Vita, there aren't many pattern-changing games on the way. Pokemon is not coming. Monster Hunter is coming but the console versions are much less important. NSMB has already come and gone to little effect. Wii Sports has not been replicated. Wii Fit is coming but expectations appear much lower.
In short, there isn't a gigantic wave of big games on the horizon for the Wii U. We're not hearing a lot of Wii U projects getting started up from developers on GAF (in fact, I've only heard of Wii U projects being cancelled). The context makes Wii U's prospects seem worse to me, not better. But again, even in the cases where platforms managed to "turn it around", the turnaround hasn't represented great success, it was just better than it could have been.
InsaneZero
Member
Bad news for Obama.
Baconsammy
Banned
A terrible launch. An almost immediate drop in sales forecast by 1.5 million consoles to a new forecast of 4 million consoles sold through March that they appear to also have no chance of meeting. A major third party exclusive releasing in Feb not only moved to PS3 and 360, but also delayed it's release on Wii U by about 7 months. Reports from DICE that there was more discussion about Wii U projects being cancelled than being worked on. It's more than just one bad month of sales. A whole lot more.
shinra-bansho
Member
Those that were heavily on-board, are already losing confidence. While those that were on-the-fence will be tilting away. Meanwhile everyone else was already firmly rooted on the other side of the fence.
prag16
Banned
Touché. Though to be fair, knowing all about it and still not wanting it is worse than not knowing anything about it.
I never said it was in great shape.. just that it's fate is not sealed.
The Rayman/Dice summit is certainly the best response you could have given me, but it's hard to make heads or tails of either. from the second Rayman was announced people were certain it would be multiplatform. if Wii U sales were stronger in January would they have not made the same decision? as for the Dice summit, I simply don't know enough. I don't know who's quote that is, or how valid it is. I am not dismissing either example, but I also don't know how much credence to give them.
We're already seeing that Wii U is getting stronger 3rd party support than the Wii. Monster Hunter, Lego, Rayman, Watch Dogs, NFS, AC3, ME3, ZombiU, CoD, etc. Wii U is less outdated than Wii was, so we can continue to expect better 3rd party support than Wii had.
I disagree that there aren't big name games coming to Wii U. 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Bayonetta 2, X, Retro's games, Wii Fit, Pikmin 3, etc. And yes, we're going to get Pokemon games. Nintendo has more developers than ever before, and those developers have more teams than ever before, Nintendo is partnering with more companies than ever before and are more active with publishing, so we can expect plenty of high quality, big name software this gen.
mujun: I think Nintendo's ads might be more effective this gen because their games are in HD and should have larger, more detailed worlds, and I know blue ocean games are in the works because of a recent Iwata interview. Nintendo has a solid track record of making system sellers, so I wouldn't bet against them. I think it's also reasonable to assume Wii U's games might review higher, as traditional controls are less divisive.
We're already seeing that Wii U is getting stronger 3rd party support than the Wii. Monster Hunter, Lego, Rayman, Watch Dogs, NFS, AC3, ME3, ZombiU, CoD, etc. Wii U is less outdated than Wii was, so we can continue to expect better 3rd party support than Wii had.
I disagree that there aren't big name games coming to Wii U. 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Bayonetta 2, X, Retro's games, Wii Fit, Pikmin 3, etc. And yes, we're going to get Pokemon games. Nintendo has more developers than ever before, and those developers have more teams than ever before, Nintendo is partnering with more companies than ever before and are more active with publishing, so we can expect plenty of high quality, big name software this gen.
mujun: I think Nintendo's ads might be more effective this gen because their games are in HD and should have larger, more detailed worlds, and I know blue ocean games are in the works because of a recent Iwata interview. Nintendo has a solid track record of making system sellers, so I wouldn't bet against them. I think it's also reasonable to assume Wii U's games might review higher, as traditional controls are less divisive.
metalslimer
Member
I don't necessarily agree with this premise. Nintendo has more staff than ever before, but games cost and take more time and developers than ever before. Nintendo is struggling to get games like Pikmin 3 out because of their unfamiliarity with current development trends. Nintendo has basically been trapped in a Gamecube architecture bubble for the last 10 years and they have to quickly come out of that. You are right though in one thing. In terms of big name 3rd party support the Wii U is doing better than the Wii, but for people with PS3/360s there has to be an incentive to buy a Wii U and if they didn't find Nintendo games the reason in the Wii era why would they find that to be the case now.
This of course applies to Sony and Microsoft as well as they will also have to convince PS3/360 owners that they should upgrade their systems, and I worry particularly about Microsoft having the software to convince people their 360s are no longer worth it.
In terms of bad sales, it is not going to just be one month of bad sales. It's going to be a horrendous next couple of months for Wii U as Pikmin 3 is certainly not a big enough game to change the tides of a system selling as bad as 55k. If Nintendo isn't constantly assuring 3rd party developers that they have plans to correct the situation and are willing to take drastic measures, than by Fall they may see their entire 3rd party ecosystems, as fragile as it is, completely disappear. We saw it with Vita where even ports like Zone of the Ender's HD were cancelled and other games were just never started.
megabytecr
Member
3 months combined of sales for Wii U are higher than PS360 and even taking into account a very different market and economy.
Even Nintendo is not marketing the Wii U, because they know they need a healthier library.
But Nintendo really made big mistakes with the launch, but are things that can be fixed. IMO they had to launch with a Wii Sports U alongside Nintendo Land and maybe another casual title next to NSMBU and Mario Kart.
Nintendo Land is a very interesting point for analysis. I think it is an excellent game, that has a lot of content for core fans and at the same time it is accessible to casuals. Unfortunately at the end I think it missed both, but I am not 100% sure about this until I see a bigger push from Nintendo. Many core fans dismissed it from the begginning for its kiddy look, but what is hidden is a core arcade collection.
In summary I think the Jan numbers are terrible, but I would not signal doom and gloom yet, I think it is wise to wait.
Note: I also consider myself objective, coming from a PC background, then Wii and PS3, now Wii U, next? maybe PC or PS4
Even Nintendo is not marketing the Wii U, because they know they need a healthier library.
But Nintendo really made big mistakes with the launch, but are things that can be fixed. IMO they had to launch with a Wii Sports U alongside Nintendo Land and maybe another casual title next to NSMBU and Mario Kart.
Nintendo Land is a very interesting point for analysis. I think it is an excellent game, that has a lot of content for core fans and at the same time it is accessible to casuals. Unfortunately at the end I think it missed both, but I am not 100% sure about this until I see a bigger push from Nintendo. Many core fans dismissed it from the begginning for its kiddy look, but what is hidden is a core arcade collection.
In summary I think the Jan numbers are terrible, but I would not signal doom and gloom yet, I think it is wise to wait.
Note: I also consider myself objective, coming from a PC background, then Wii and PS3, now Wii U, next? maybe PC or PS4
Duxxy3
Member
Didn't the original xbox lose more money?
InsaneZero
Member
I feel that the transition to next generation is going to take a lot longer than it was historically, since software development is just far too risky as is right now.
metalslimer
Member
Nintendoland may be a very good game, but Nintendo completely abandoned what made the Wii ___ series so appealing in the first place. The Wii series deliberately abandoned Nintendo characters to become completely neutral with Miis and not have the association that one was playing a kid game. It's also extended into their overall Wii strategy of basically selling the system without the Nintendo brand name. Trying to make your big system seller a collection of Nintendo franchises completely defeats that purpose because that makes it too gamey for the expanded audience to begin with.
I would bet very large amounts of money that if Nintendo had called Wii Sports, Nintendo Sports with Mario playing baseball with Bowser the game would not hae been nearly as much of a phenomenon as it was. Instead Nintendo decided to retreat back into using familiar IP and surprise surprise it's not going to draw in the Wii Sports audience to come play a bunch of Nintendo themed minigames.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
The Wiiu's biggest problem is that between now and the end of September, the only marketable games with release dates are NFS, MonHun, Rayman, Madden, and Lego City. That's going to be reflected with poor numbers right up until the holiday season. Pikmin, 101, and Bayonetta will probably be good games, but they have no retailer presence without a semi-firm launch date and promotional materials.
Nintendo needs Mario Kart or Smash Bros this November to salvage this Christmas. As of right now, their biggest confirmed holiday games are Madden/FIFA/COD/AC '14 and Watch Dogs, and now they have the "definitive version" PS4 multiplats hanging over their next-gen heads.
Nintendo needs Mario Kart or Smash Bros this November to salvage this Christmas. As of right now, their biggest confirmed holiday games are Madden/FIFA/COD/AC '14 and Watch Dogs, and now they have the "definitive version" PS4 multiplats hanging over their next-gen heads.
megabytecr
Member
I thought I read somewhere that a rumour was floating around that Rayman was moved because Ubi and Nintendo could not reach an agreement with marketing, but I can´t look for it now.
I really fear that for PS4 Durango, their primary competition will be PS360 and Wii U, this transition will last longer than people think.
I really fear that for PS4 Durango, their primary competition will be PS360 and Wii U, this transition will last longer than people think.
metalslimer
Member
Madden 25 has no Wii U SKU. In fact, FIFA, CoD, and Assassin's Creed (I assume that's what AC is) are confirmed for Wii U. Wii U's only confirmed Fall titles right now are Watch Dogs and Windwaker HD. Although we can be sure that at least 2/3 of Mario Kart, Yoshi Yarn, and 3D Mario will make it for the holiday period.
BishopLamont
Banned
I don't think thats the problem at all. Its just the fact that tablet + console gaming isn't something thats immediately appealing like the Wii with its Wiimote. Nintendo needs to put the hard yards in, they can't just kick back on the casual money, so going with their established franchises and characters was the best thing they could have betted on.
Mario from Sidhe said that, he also said he isn't going to support ps4 or xb3...
Rayman Legends got pushed back, but we got a Watch Dogs announcement. If you were talking about Ubisoft, it looks like they're just as heavily on board as always. I don't see who else you could be possibly talking about.
metalslimer
Member
It was certainly supposed to be or Nintendo wouldn't have made it the primary selling point of Wii U or said Nintendoland was their attempt at making a new Wii Sports phenomenon. Nintendo probably looked at how well tablets were doing, combined with their previous attempts at doing off tv connectivity and thought it was a sure fire hit just like they thought that the whole 3D craze was going somewhere and the 3DS would be a natural fit.
Maybe Activision or EA? It will certainly be interesting to see how they handle Call of Duty and Battlefield this year as they will both certainly be cross gen games like Watch Dogs.
His company is mostly mobile/social games now, I think. And he said that in observation of other companies that would still be into console games.
Madden 25 probably isnt coming out on PS4 or Durango either.
metalslimer
Member
You think EA is going to pass up the chance to get in on the launch of those two? Unless you think there will be another Madden SKU specifically for those two, there is no way EA misses the launch of a console.
Thats right , because he is betting against next gen consoles in general.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't see how anyone could take the Rayman delay as anything but a loss in confidence. Meanwhile, the announcement of something already well into development - where porting from the PS360 is a viable solution - doesn't really signal being heavily on-board long term.
I think we're both trying to make too many conclusions on too little evidence.