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[Yagharek]

You think EA is going to pass up the chance to get in on the launch of those two? Unless you think there will be another Madden SKU specifically for those two, there is no way EA misses the launch of a console.

No, I think Madden 15 will be on PS4/Durango, and Madden 25 will be a PS5/XBox 4 game.

 

[suaveric]

it's interesting trivia, but I still don't see how so many people are arriving at the same conclusion (GC level sales, Wii U is doomed, etc)

what about these 2 months of poor sales is going to be so devastating to Wii U? and are you accounting for the fact GC launched at $200 and dropped down to $99 less than a year later?

Actually, it took two years for the GameCube to hit $99. But Nintendo did drop the price by 25% to $150 at E3 2002, just six months after launch, presumably because it wasn't hitting their sales targets.
I assume that Nintendo's original plan was to cut the Wii U price this fall leading up to the release of the other two systems. Now I think they may have to follow their earlier footsteps and cut the price at E3. I'm not sure a cut of $50 will even move the needle that much, but it's probably all they can afford without losing a ton of money.
Nintendo stayed out of the super-charged hardware race again this generation, but it looks like it may have bit them in the ass now. The Wii U gamepad just isn't capturing the larger audience like the motion controls did and now they have nothing else to really hang their hat on.

 

[RukusProvider]

Also based on WW response. The US sales would be much less worrying if Japan didn't have similarly low sales, or what we know of the EU was better.

Look, I'm not saying it's literally impossible for tides to turn. I believe it is very unlikely given what we know so far. It is extremely uncommon for a system to sell this poorly out of the gate only to suddenly rocket to success later on.

Outside of a striking Casual gold, it's done in the US. Price cuts and Mario branded core games won't do much for it.

If Durango and Orbis have entry SKU"s at $399 or below, it's even more done.

Nintendo needs a few alignments for success in the US.
1. A casual game or gimmick that takes off
2. Blunders by MS and Sony for their next gen consoles
3. Price cut
4. All 3 above plus heavy advertising

1,3,4 are needed at a minimum but realistically need all fours stars to align. Even at my most optimistic, I don't see that happening.

Ultimately, the WiiU will end up as the Vita in conversation. The tired "I don't care about sales because I enjoy mine!" mantra that is all too familiar in sales threads.

 

[big youth]

The Wii U gamepad just isn't capturing the larger audience like the motion controls did and now they have nothing else to really hang their hat on.

I think it's more accurate to say the public hasn't been introduced to Wii U yet. The Wii was everywhere, from Oprah to Ellen, with Wii Would Like to Play commercials on every other channel during prime time.

Wii U on the other hand is still unknown by most. An effective advertising campaign would get the publics attention, and no one would care that the console released 5 months prior.

as a company that idolizes Apple, I'm surprised Nintendo didn't copy their commercials. show a close up of the Gamepad, with 2 people playing checkers, have a 3rd hand grab the pad and rotate it to draw (Mario or Zelda) with a stylus, have another hand grab and rotate to browse netflix, and so forth, showcasing sports scores, TVii, google street, miiverse, and other neat features. make the possibilities seem endless.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

No, I think Madden 15 will be on PS4/Durango, and Madden 25 will be a PS5/XBox 4 game.

Madden 25 is Madden 14 and EA will release it on PS4/720 for sure. No doubt about that so will 2K and their NBA game.

 

[AzaK]

Outside of a striking Casual gold, it's done in the US. Price cuts and Mario branded core games won't do much for it.

If Durango and Orbis have entry SKU"s at $399 or below, it's even more done.

Nintendo needs a few alignments for success in the US.
1. A casual game or gimmick that takes off
2. Blunders by MS and Sony for their next gen consoles
3. Price cut
4. All 3 above plus heavy advertising

1,3,4 are needed at a minimum but realistically need all fours stars to align. Even at my most optimistic, I don't see that happening.

Ultimately, the WiiU will end up as the Vita in conversation. The tired "I don't care about sales because I enjoy mine!" mantra that is all too familiar in sales threads.

Marketting and games would do it. Whilst a casual megahit would be nice, I don't think Nintendo are counting on it. They are going more broad this time. Thing is is that puts them in a no man's land being jack of all trades but master of none. All the while tablets and phones grow for the casual and Sony and MS (?) go for the core again with high tech.

It feels like they were originally counting on core third party support for that breadth but something went wrong and now they are focussing more on Japan, and delaying their titles to give them something later.

My optimistic self is wondering if they will 're launch' after end of fiscal year. Get profitable this FY then spend on marketting and get software out.

 

[big youth]

what would a relaunch entail? and why do companies do relaunches?

to me it would make sense to relaunch a product like Vita (If Sony truly believes in it and wants to keep it alive), because it might convince retailers to stock the product again, and cause publishers to reconsider the platform. but relaunching a new product without any hardware faults doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[AzaK]

By relaunch I just mean try and sell the thing. Advertise and market it in full force.

 

[big youth]

oh, well in that case you're right. Iwata has said quite plainly that they will begin advertising when major games start releasing.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I believe in the relaunch. Its not really a relaunch because its already out but this is what I believe Nintendo did. It may be me just talking imaginary random bullshit but hey. It seem like they wanted a one year headstart to get all they can from Wii U now until they "relaunch" the system. They obviously had no real must have buy my console type game at launch but I believe it could possibly been a risky purposeful type move. As a company who launched DS as a third pillar with a handheld that was still selling and manage to do 80 million its not so wild to think like this. Its like the subtle marketing this past holiday was just to tide over and manage. I think when 3D mario and mario kart and whatever are coming out they will make ads that incorporate the off-tv play, miiverse, asymetrical, and online gameplay within those ads to start a new "launch" for the Wii U. Not will they do these ads they will have software to go along with it to make it much more understanding to get the Wii U point across. And about the blue ocean games, If its indeed true that they are still making these, these games will have to be totally new experiences, not brain age and all that. The "games" might even not be games.

 

[Majmun]

Can't wait for the Vita relaunch.

 

[m.i.s.]

I think it's more accurate to say the public hasn't been introduced to Wii U yet. The Wii was everywhere, from Oprah to Ellen, with Wii Would Like to Play commercials on every other channel during prime time. Wii U on the other hand is still unknown by most. An effective advertising campaign would get the publics attention, and no one would care that the console released 5 months prior

In my experience it's not that they haven't been introduced to Wii U -- they have -- they just don't care. Not at the current price point and with the current software selection.

show a close up of the Gamepad, with 2 people playing checkers, have a 3rd hand grab the pad and rotate it to draw (Mario or Zelda) with a stylus, have another hand grab and rotate to browse netflix, and so forth, showcasing sports scores, TVii, google street, miiverse, and other neat features. make the possibilities seem endless.

Much of that can be done on current general purpose tablets; no one is going to be enticed to buy a gaming system for those features for $350.

 

[Vermillion]

I wonder what would happen should Nintendo decide to make a stronger system? Yes, yes, Nintendo 64/Gamecube, but not only did they not appear to court third-parties as much then, but their formats were off-putting in comparison to the competition.

What if they had made the Wii U's specs closer to PS4s? Would the controller be a barrier to entry, then?

 

[NeonZ]

What if they had made the Wii U's specs closer to PS4s? Would the controller be a barrier to entry, then?

I don't think they could seriously make something on the level of the PS4 with the current controller, considering how it seems to be a large part of what's driving production costs for the Wii U as it is. It'd need to go.

Anyway, I really think they should completely take the focus off the Game Pad, limiting it to off screen play in future games, and launch a new cheaper sku of the Wii U with a Wiimote and Nunchuck or classic controller, slowly and silently phasing out the GamePad completely. It's pretty clear that the GamePad failed as a selling point, so the best thing they can do right now is go for the cheap price point option and stop eating losses for this bad idea.

 

[jwhit28]

I don't think they could seriously make something on the level of the PS4 with the current controller, considering how it seems to be a large part of what's driving production costs for the Wii U as it is. It'd need to go.

Anyway, I really think they should completely take the focus off the Game Pad, limiting it to off screen play in future games, and launch a new cheaper sku of the Wii U with a Wiimote and Nunchuck or classic controller, slowly and silently phasing out the GamePad completely. It's pretty clear that the GamePad failed as a selling point, so the best thing they can do right now is go for the cheap price point option and stop eating losses for this bad idea.

This reminds me of the people that kept waiting for the new Gameboy when DS was having trouble.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Also based on WW response. The US sales would be much less worrying if Japan didn't have similarly low sales, or what we know of the EU was better.

Look, I'm not saying it's literally impossible for tides to turn. I believe it is very unlikely given what we know so far. It is extremely uncommon for a system to sell this poorly out of the gate only to suddenly rocket to success later on.

Like the 360? Didn't sell this bad but MS can get a pat on their back for turning around their slow sales.

 

[NeonZ]

This reminds me of the people that kept waiting for the new Gameboy when DS was having trouble.

Do you think that eating losses for a feature that people clearly don't care about makes more sense? It could create some minor brand confusion in the beginning, but at this point the "Wii U" brand doesn't seem worth much.

 

[spock]

Marketting and games would do it. Whilst a casual megahit would be nice, I don't think Nintendo are counting on it. They are going more broad this time. Thing is is that puts them in a no man's land being jack of all trades but master of none. All the while tablets and phones grow for the casual and Sony and MS (?) go for the core again with high tech.

It feels like they were originally counting on core third party support for that breadth but something went wrong and now they are focussing more on Japan, and delaying their titles to give them something later.

My optimistic self is wondering if they will 're launch' after end of fiscal year. Get profitable this FY then spend on marketting and get software out.

Actually I think they are banking on a casual runaway hit again. We just havent seen their attempts at hitting those kinds of targets yet. All it takes 1 game to hook into the broad market and begin the mass media attention grab. My gut tells me they have mutiple unannouced NEW IP's designed for just this. While they cant gurantee each one will be that kind of hit, they can greatly increase thier odds by simply making multiple new ip's to capture that market.

Thay have a proven track record of ability to do this on 2 platforms. Honestly its just a matter of attempts and time.

A price cut, etc are all secondary to their success. They need to capture lightening in a bottle again and the wiiu is their lightening rod.

Sequals to existing IP's will move units but that will only help with their core and expanded core. The broad market is most likely not buying a new console for any sequal IMO. The broad market will buy something if it its the new "thing". For that Nintendo needs a fresh angle and that is what the wiiu gives them in the context of a game development canvas.

I personally feel Nintendo is going to do quite well sometime in the next 24 months. People are calling them out cause they did not hit wii like success out the gate. Well know one said they had to launch with wii like success. They have time to get there. The console is brand new.

I think they may or may not hit wii levels but I think they will indeed be on the same trajactory at some point and begin massivly outsell the comeptition. Its just a matter of time & attempts...(broad market apeal software)

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not quite sure where this misplaced notion of "infallible Nintendo" as an unlimited bottled lightning factory derives from.

 

[spock]

I'm not quite sure where this misplaced notion of "infallible Nintendo" as an unlimited bottled lightning factory derives from.

Its not that their infalible, its just a more then luck with them. It strcturally part of their design philosphy in games and hardware. Let me explain.

First, nintendos ability to capture the broad market extends beyond the wii and wii sports. Just look at brain age and nintendogs on the ds...look at wii fit on the wii, etc. These multiple successes in the non core gaming spaces indicate a method to thier madness. This is why they first design games and a vision of user experince before they lay out their console hardware. The idea is to give them the best canvas to "potentially" hit those mass market touch points. They build hadware to pump out potential lottery tickets.Its all about increasing the odds and ease about capturing lightening.

So they create a medium of user experince for their vision, the wiiu ( same vien as wii and ds) Now they need to create games that capture "lightening in a bottle". Well the grate thing about these type of games is that they are relativly cheap and fast to produce compared to core gamer and visually driven games. The hard part is the "lightening in a ottle" part which is dependent more on the devlopers imgination and ability.

Because its faster and cheaper they can try mutiple times to get that lightening, fail a bunch and still succeed. For argument sak, lets say they release 5 NEW ips with broad market focus on casual audience. They only need 1 to hook and catch on. The success of that single game will drive sales of the other broad market games once the audience enters the eco system.

Nintendo has some type of desugn framework and strategy they have learned and developed that is what gives them greater abiblity to capture the casual audience. Its pretty much a large part of what they do now.

Clearly none of it is guranteed, but its a very solid strategy with a high proboblity of success given the wiiu has long life cycle ahead. It's a bet I would easily take.

EDIT: The thing with the broad market is that if you look at why some games hit with them and others dont across all platforms, their are strctural elements inherint in those success. Structural thinking in user experince design is the key here.

 

[m.i.s.]

This reminds me of the people that kept waiting for the new Gameboy when DS was having trouble.

DS was never in this much trouble though [57k units first Jan after launch] and was always a vaunted "third pillar" to mitigate the risk.

There's a certain beguiling logic to the "introduce a base Wii U model with Wiimote / Nunchuck" combo. For one, Wii U is fully backward compatible. Nintendo could EOL the original Wii [which still sells well over Xmas, thanksgiving, Easter and birthdays as families get together] and replace it with a cheaper Wii U with Wiimote and Nunchuk and the more expensive premium system with gamepad.

All depends on how desperate Nintendo get and how rattled they are with these figures.

 

[shinra-bansho]

There was nothing particularly visionary with regard to their most recent endeavor before the Wii U. No grand software-hardware synergistic user experience design strategy. They bolted on the glasses-less 3D and expected the gimmick to excite the masses. Similarly nothing so far has indicated some sort of grand plan with regard to the second/touch screen on the Wii U.

Expecting to catch lightning in a bottle is, frankly, lunacy. As the phrase implies, it's unpredictable, difficult and exceedingly rare.

Meanwhile, this soft launch, everything going to plan, relaunch later, narrative that people keep espousing is nonsense. Nintendo gave their fiscal year guidance long before launch. They clearly expected far more sales than they're currently seeing. They clearly thought they could sell the system and its second screen on the back of NSMBU and Nintendo Land. No "soft launch" aims to ship 5.5M units.

Further, there's a limited window of time when one can let their product languish, as the Wii U seemingly will for the time being, before the situation is irreversible.

 

[spock]

Expecting to catch lightning in a bottle is, frankly, lunacy. As the phrase implies, it's unpredictable, difficult and exceedingly rare.

The things, Nintendo has done it more then once. Enough to at least indicate some level of probability that their is strctural awarness in how they create those type of games. There is no other developer who has had as many broad market hits as Nintendo has. That is quite powerful and insightful.

 

[gcubed]

Can't wait for the Vita relaunch.

Was waiting for this. You could do a find and replace Wii U with Vita and these threads would be close copies of last year

 

[m.i.s.]

this soft launch, everything going to plan, relaunch later, narrative that people keep espousing is nonsense. Nintendo gave their fiscal year guidance long before launch. They clearly expected far more sales than they're currently seeing. They clearly thought they could sell the system and its second screen on the back of NSMBU and Nintendo Land. No "soft launch" aims to ship 5.5M units.

I agree, it clearly is. Nintendo had a poorly received e3 2011. What did GAF observers say? Nintendo will have a relaunch at e3 2012 complete with a redesigned wii u casing to alleviate confusion with the Wii. It just didn't happen. e3 2012 was just as poorly received.

 

[wsippel]

I wonder what would happen should Nintendo decide to make a stronger system? Yes, yes, Nintendo 64/Gamecube, but not only did they not appear to court third-parties as much then, but their formats were off-putting in comparison to the competition.

What if they had made the Wii U's specs closer to PS4s? Would the controller be a barrier to entry, then?

Wouldn't have made any difference when it comes to third party support in my opinion, but the system would have been even more expensive.

The good thing for Nintendo is that developers pretty much have to do cross generation development for years to come - until PS4 and the next Xbox reach a sufficient installed base to warrant exclusive AAA development. Wii U will be more powerful than the baseline for which games are developed until 2015 or something. That circumstance buys Nintendo a lot of time.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

Further, there's a limited window of time when one can let their product languish, as the Wii U seemingly will for the time being, before the situation is irreversible.

Just like the PS3, amirite?

 

[Striek]

The things, Nintendo has done it more then once. Enough to at least indicate some level of probability that their is strctural awarness in how they create those type of games. There is no other developer who has had as many broad market hits as Nintendo has. That is quite powerful and insightful.

Its been six years since Nintendo created a new IP/idea of the type you're talking about. In fact, they only created them for a period of about three or four years.

Its not something thats provably in the company DNA nor an act they've proven they can follow.

 

[Celine]

Yes, I think N64 numbers are the realistic upper bound, and PS3/360 numbers are very, very unlikely. That is my assessment based on how terrible these early numbers have been, not just in the US, but worldwide.

Bold prediction if you ask me, even if we consider the not-so-great sales WiiU got so far.

Its been six years since Nintendo created a new IP/idea of the type you're talking about. In fact, they only created them for a period of about three or four years.

Its not something thats provably in the company DNA nor an act they've proven they can follow.

Unless we are talking of crazy mega hits numbers of some DS/Wii games with that 'broad' (IMO a series that generation after generation can sell 5 million units is 'broad'), Nintendo has proved multiple times since the NES days they can create and then manage such new experiences (just a few examples going from NES to Wii: SMB->MK->SSB->AC->Wii Sports*).

It's hard though, no question.

*I'm wonder if a new Wii Sports can sell 5 million units though.

 

[spock]

Its been six years since Nintendo created a new IP/idea of the type you're talking about. In fact, they only created them for a period of about three or four years.

Its not something thats provably in the company DNA nor an act they've proven they can follow.

Well part of the strategy is creating the new IP's as a hook but then you recycle and create sequals to feed the new audience. Because this new audience has only certain interests as it relates to gaming, you want to maxamize the experince channel in which you first pulled them in with.

You also need to consider that at some point in the console cycle you eed to beging planning and shifting focus to the future generation. I think this is why many feel the wii was left for dead, because in a sense it was. In order to follow a simlar yet modified path you need to bring new user experinces. The behavioral structure of the broad and casual market is quite different then the core gamer market. Some call it a "fad" but its just a differnet behavioral buying model. Shorter life cycle, different motivators, expectations, etc. Different rules to the game basically.

 

[Pociask]

Nintendoland may be a very good game, but Nintendo completely abandoned what made the Wii ___ series so appealing in the first place. The Wii series deliberately abandoned Nintendo characters to become completely neutral with Miis and not have the association that one was playing a kid game. It's also extended into their overall Wii strategy of basically selling the system without the Nintendo brand name. Trying to make your big system seller a collection of Nintendo franchises completely defeats that purpose because that makes it too gamey for the expanded audience to begin with.

I would bet very large amounts of money that if Nintendo had called Wii Sports, Nintendo Sports with Mario playing baseball with Bowser the game would not hae been nearly as much of a phenomenon as it was. Instead Nintendo decided to retreat back into using familiar IP and surprise surprise it's not going to draw in the Wii Sports audience to come play a bunch of Nintendo themed minigames.

I've been arguing for a while that Nintendo has completely misjudged why the Wii was a success. Beyond being completely neutral with the Mii's, I'd argue that Wii Sports would have been the same smash hit even if you could only choose a boy or a girl character to play as, and get rid of the Mii customization altogether. Nintendo seemed to think with Nintendoland that Mii's would act as a bridge from casual-land to core-gamer land. However, if I'm right, the Mii's still don't do anything for the casual gamer. Worse, they deliberately weakened their franchises pre-existing appeal for Nintendo fans by making the pre-existing franchises Mii versions!

Its been six years since Nintendo created a new IP/idea of the type you're talking about. In fact, they only created them for a period of about three or four years.

Its not something thats provably in the company DNA nor an act they've proven they can follow.

Giving credit where it's due, Nintendo bet on motion controls for the Wii when the idea was pitched to them, but that also means they weren't they ones that created the motion control device. They may have been thinking about how to reach a blue ocean, but they weren't able to figure out a way on their own. Wii Sports was a great, great game, but for all that, was essentially a tech demo put together by Nintendo to show off what motion controls could do. Unfortunately Nintendo did that so well with Wii Sports it seems like they were unable to ever to do better and capture the imagination of the public again.

 

[Monty Mole]

Just like the PS3, amirite?

PS3 didn't hit quite this scale of sales slump. The PS3 also had a much stronger line-up, especially third party, and still had a flow of games on the way throughout the year at this point. We're still waiting for release dates on Pikmin and W101 - neither of which will set the Wii U on sales fire anyway.

And PS3 never did truly recover, it's still continually trailing well behind 360 in the US, after continually trailing behind both 360 and Wii in the first half of the generation. And when compared to PS2, the performance looks abysmal.

 

[spock]

Bold prediction if you ask me, even if we consider the not-so-great sales WiiU got so far.


Unless we are talking of crazy mega hits numbers of some DS/Wii games with that 'broad' (IMO a series that generation after generation can sell 5 million units is 'broad'), Nintendo has proved multiple times since the NES days they can create and then manage such new experiences (just a few examples going from NES to Wii: SMB->MK->SSB->AC->Wii Sports*).

It's hard though, no question.

*I'm wonder if a new Wii Sports can sell 5 million units though.

Personally I dont think its going to be a wii sports sequal or any sequal. Whatever it is it will probobly have structural similarties in design philosphy. Meaning the barries to engament will be similar. For examlpe, it will be simple to grasp and engage in, it will put a fresh spin on something familer. There will be a tacticle elemnt that creates a "wow thats cool" effect. etc.

My guess is they will also look at trends and focal points in non gaming markets and see what they can come up with that they can bridge into via user experince/games.

 

[NoirVisage]

everything about this post is awesome.

 

[sflufan]

Just out of curiosity, we didn't receive any software numbers this month?

 

[spock]

I've been arguing for a while that Nintendo has completely misjudged why the Wii was a success. Beyond being completely neutral with the Mii's, I'd argue that Wii Sports would have been the same smash hit even if you could only choose a boy or a girl character to play as, and get rid of the Mii customization altogether. Nintendo seemed to think with Nintendoland that Mii's would act as a bridge from casual-land to core-gamer land. However, if I'm right, the Mii's still don't do anything for the casual gamer. Worse, they deliberately weakened their franchises pre-existing appeal for Nintendo fans by making the pre-existing franchises Mii versions!



Giving credit where it's due, Nintendo bet on motion controls for the Wii when the idea was pitched to them, but that also means they weren't they ones that created the motion control device. They may have been thinking about how to reach a blue ocean, but they weren't able to figure out a way on their own. Wii Sports was a great, great game, but for all that, was essentially a tech demo put together by Nintendo to show off what motion controls could do. Unfortunately Nintendo did that so well with Wii Sports it seems like they were unable to ever to do better and capture the imagination of the public again.

So your saying things like wii fit, brain age, nintendogs , etc did not capture the public? They dont need wii sports like success. You can have mutiple titles targeting the expanded audience each with decent to good success and it all adds up. It then also creates cross over and momentum.

I think the idea of the wiiu is not so much to hit a homerun (though they wouldnt mind it). I think its more so they have a good canvas to create lots of potential singles, doubles & triples in different existing and new segments of the broad market.

The wiiU design it self has some of the structural elements you need for potential broad market appeal built into it. (familer and easy to use, new and innovative aspects, etc) It helps direct their imagination and creativity within a framework with the potential for higher broad market appeal.

Obviously it doesnt ensure anything will appeal to anyone, it just increases ther potential and proboblity that something created for it could hit those viens.

 

[prag16]

The good thing for Nintendo is that developers pretty much have to do cross generation development for years to come - until PS4 and the next Xbox reach a sufficient installed base to warrant exclusive AAA development. Wii U will be more powerful than the baseline for which games are developed until 2015 or something. That circumstance buys Nintendo a lot of time.

This can't be overstated. Nintendo did pretty much blow their one year lead on PS4/Durango, but the "window" is not closed.

 

[Pociask]

So your saying things like wii fit, brain age, nintendogs , etc did not capture the public? They dont need wii sports like success. You can have mutiple titles targeting the expanded audience each with decent to good success and it all adds up. It then also creates cross over and momentum.

I was speaking of strictly motion controls. But speaking to that list, Brain Age was picking up work on a brain fad going on in Japan at the time, Wii Fit tapped into the perpetual exercise fad, and Nintendogs is just an evolution of having a pet in your pocket (or a monster in your pocket, or whatever).

I would argue multiple titles don't have a cumulative effect on an audience. People buy hardware to play the piece of software that is compelling for them. Joe Casual doesn't think, "Hm, I'm not that into Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii, or Wii Fit, but if you add up all three, I've gotta have it!"

Nintendo hit a lot of home runs last gen. They haven't gotten one out of the park yet for 3DS (which is showing the limits of cumulative hits, I think) or the Wii U (which shows the limits of not even knowing the rules of the game you're playing).

 

[The Horror the horror]

Nintendo doesn't have a one-year lead. They have a two-year lead. This isn't just about system releases; this is about games. If history is of any indication, Sony - and to a lesser extent, Microsoft - will need a full year before the games start rolling, or have we all already forgotten the PS2 and PS3 droughts during their first 12 months, respectively? Obviously, the faster Nintendo pushes out games uncontested the better but they still have some time.

 

[ascii42]

I hope they don't release a version of the WiiU without the gamepad. Not having that in every box would basically guarantee that we would see very little creative use of the screen for the remainder of the generation.

Nintendo doesn't have a one-year lead. They have a two-year lead. This isn't just about system releases; this is about games. If history is of any indication, Sony - and to a lesser extent, Microsoft - will need a full year before the games start rolling, or have we all already forgotten the PS2 and PS3 droughts during their first 12 months, respectively? Obviously, the faster Nintendo pushes out games uncontested the better but they still have some time.

No...it's a one year lead, since Nintendo's having the same drought you speak of right now.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

PS3 didn't hit quite this scale of sales slump. The PS3 also had a much stronger line-up, especially third party, and still had a flow of games on the way throughout the year at this point. We're still waiting for release dates on Pikmin and W101 - neither of which will set the Wii U on sales fire anyway.

And PS3 never did truly recover, it's still continually trailing well behind 360 in the US, after continually trailing behind both 360 and Wii in the first half of the generation. And when compared to PS2, the performance looks abysmal.

Hell, that's an awful lot of qualifiers in one post, which seems to ignore the rather obvious parralells between two prematurely condemned systems. And when you say PS3 trailed in the first half of the generation, a turnaround is implicit, which sort of defeats your argument. Also, does a system have to be market leader for its sales to have improved, and wtf do PS2 sales have to do with PS3 or Wii U's ability to course correct?

Anyway, it's always great to see the aura of inevitable doom and gloom surrounding a system less half a year out of the gate. I wouldn't necessairly want a sales ager as my doctor.

 

[spock]

I was speaking of strictly motion controls. But speaking to that list, Brain Age was picking up work on a brain fad going on in Japan at the time, Wii Fit tapped into the perpetual exercise fad, and Nintendogs is just an evolution of having a pet in your pocket (or a monster in your pocket, or whatever).

I would argue multiple titles don't have a cumulative effect on an audience. People buy hardware to play the piece of software that is compelling for them. Joe Casual doesn't think, "Hm, I'm not that into Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii, or Wii Fit, but if you add up all three, I've gotta have it!"

Nintendo hit a lot of home runs last gen. They haven't gotten one out of the park yet for 3DS (which is showing the limits of cumulative hits, I think) or the Wii U (which shows the limits of not even knowing the rules of the game you're playing).

I think you misunderstood me on the cumulative sales part. What I am saying is average joe 1 buys a system for wii sports, avg jane 1 buys for wii fit, etc. They get pulled into the eco system by the broad market title that appeals to them and then potentially buy other broad market titles or similar/sequels to the original hook title.

While they havent hit it out the park with the 3ds, on the whole its doing pretty good given how far it is in its life cycle. Its trajactory is very solid and in an uptrend. The difference between the wiiu and wii comparison and the ds & 3ds comparison is the hardware aspect of the casual hook.

The 3ds tried to use a visual experience as its new hook where the wiiu is using something more tactile. The original wii and ds on the hardware side of things also used a more tactile hook.

The 3ds actually is a good example of the limitation in appeal with visual engagement. Yes it can draw people in but it doesn't create feels like things people can actually feel and touch. Sensory wise as it relates to engagement the eyes are powerful in creating emotion but they are second compared to forms of tactile stimulation. And when you look at games structurally they are basically a form of directed & controlled user experiences designed to stimulate our senses & create emotions.

I would also argue that your off base with nintendo not knowing the rules, lol. You make that claim based on the performance of the wiiu over a few months compared to the multiple success over the years with the wii/ds and improving 3ds. The actual long term evidence is much more telling then what amounts to just a few months at the beginning of new consoles life cycle.

Edit - give the wiiU 12-16 months and then see where it stands. Heck as others mention the ps3 was a slow burn. But I'm in the camp that thinks Sony looks at the ps3 as a big failure so thats not the slow burn they want.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I don't necessarily know if I think comparisons to the PS3 are valid, or even something one would want to do if they're trying to suggest that another system might be on a similar trajectory that is enviable. For starters, the early years of the PS3 were disastrous to the extent the project as a whole will never be profitable. So if the idea is that you ride out three to four awful years and then things pick up, that's not a very good business strategy. Secondly, all its support came as a result of being one of the "HD Twins" such that -- if you were making an expensive, HD game, it only made sense to get it out on as many platforms as possible.

All of this is not to suggest that the Wii U can't possibly turn around, but just that comparing it to the PS3 as a positive thing just strikes me as a daft comparison no matter which way you're attacking it from. Unless we're strictly speaking in terms of "console had poor raw sales numbers early and good raw sales numbers later" devoid of any context. In which case, OK. Maybe it'll be just like the PS3.

 

[roddur]

The good thing for Nintendo is that developers pretty much have to do cross generation development for years to come - until PS4 and the next Xbox reach a sufficient installed base to warrant exclusive AAA development. Wii U will be more powerful than the baseline for which games are developed until 2015 or something. That circumstance buys Nintendo a lot of time.

even if ps4/durango don't have big user base, the publishers will still put efforts behind them. that's what will sale those products.

and for wii u, even if it had big user base every now and then you will read publisher/developers discouraging comments how they are unsure what to do with the system. just like ubisoft Bucharest's comment about watch dog.

 

[Manmademan]

Much of that can be done that on current general purpose tablets; no one is going to be enticed to buy a gaming system for those features for $350.

exactly. a kindle fire is $169, truly portable, and can do all of that and more, since it's tied into the Amazon ecosystem (streaming, books, etc).

Nintendo cannot compete with cheap tablets for the casual market. if their only competition was $600 iPads they would have a market, but it looks like they were blindsided by how fast prices have crashed for tablets.

 

[spock]

even if ps4/durango don't have big user base, the publishers will still put efforts behind them. that's what will sale those products.

and for wii u, even if it had big user base every now and then you will read publisher/developers discouraging comments how they are unsure what to do with the system. just like ubisoft Bucharest's comment about watch dog.

The truth as shown time and time again by nintendos actions and decisions is that 3rd party support, while its something they want is secondary to them. Because nintendo is a game company first then a hardware company they have to make pretty different decisions compared to their competitors.

Its a tuff position to be in. Nintendo creates hardware AFTER they create a vision of user experience for their software. If that vision means focusing on non standard mechanisms outside the visual side of things, it instantly creates a problem for 3rd parties.

3rd parties have to go multi platform to maximize profits. Because of that they have a different driving force that guides their development framework. Its more difficult, much riskier and more time consuming for a 3rd party to try and create something actually good for something like the wiiu/wii.

3rd parties have a driving force built on the hardware of the platforms they support. Having a platform that fundamentally has a different driving force creates an alignment problem from the design & business side of things.

 

[BishopLamont]

even if ps4/durango don't have big user base, the publishers will still put efforts behind them. that's what will sale those products.

and for wii u, even if it had big user base every now and then you will read publisher/developers discouraging comments how they are unsure what to do with the system. just like ubisoft Bucharest's comment about watch dog.

The Wii U doesn't need every third party game under the same. They just need most of the main ones with comparable features, or at the very least versions of them that isn't gimped to a noticeable degree. Third party support was the sole reason the Wii's fire burnt out so fast. Now about first party support...I hope they have a few casual games that have breakout potential under development, or they have many first party core games scheduled for the next few years, they're gonna need a little bit of everything to make the Wii U a decent competitor.

 

[megabytecr]

wow at people suggesting to phase out the gamepad with the console 3 months out.

I consider that a possibility if the things does not pick up by this time next year, ultra ultra panic mode Nintendo, but 3 months out, saying that the consumers don´t care without games and even marketing from Nintendo is silly.

Wii U cannot compare to Wii, the latter had a ton of free marketing thanks to motion gaming. Wii U is more conservative in this sense as tablets are already in the market. Nintendo has to show what the tablet brings in a Nintendo console and also show Wii U has all that was great fun with the Wii. Problem is with no games Nintendo cannot push for this. Interesting times ahead.

 

[m.i.s.]

All of this is not to suggest that the Wii U can't possibly turn around, but just that comparing it to the PS3 as a positive thing just strikes me as a daft comparison no matter which way you're attacking it from.

Opiate has amply detailed this very topic from just the previous page. You'd think that an individual's grasp of a topic that doesn't go beyond "doom and gloom" would just learn to stay away from sales age threads by now.

I agree, data is not the only thing that matters; context matters too. For example, the PS3's surprisingly slow start in 2006 was at least marginally ameliorated by the fact that we already knew MGSIV was coming, that GTA IV was coming, that FFXIII was coming, that Call of Duty was coming.

Similarly, one of the primary reasons people were less concerned with the 3DS' slow start in comparison to the Vita's slow start is that we knew the 3DS had big games coming. Pokemon was coming; Monster Hunter was coming; Mario Kart was coming; New Super Mario Brothers was coming.

So if we have reason to expect large games on the horizon, then a slower start can be partially remedied. Keep in mind that neither the PS3 nor the 3DS completely solved their problems; as I said, the Playstation 3 is still the worst financial disaster in console history, and the 3DS is still significantly underperforming the DS in both the EU and the US.

The Wii U is much closer to the Vita than it is the PS3/3DS, though; like the Vita, there aren't many pattern-changing games on the way. Pokemon is not coming. Monster Hunter is coming but the console versions are much less important. NSMB has already come and gone to little effect. Wii Sports has not been replicated. Wii Fit is coming but expectations appear much lower.

In short, there isn't a gigantic wave of big games on the horizon for the Wii U. We're not hearing a lot of Wii U projects getting started up from developers on GAF (in fact, I've only heard of Wii U projects being cancelled). The context makes Wii U's prospects seem worse to me, not better. But again, even in the cases where platforms managed to "turn it around", the turnaround hasn't represented great success, it was just better than it could have been.

 

[spock]

exactly. a kindle fire is $169, truly portable, and can do all of that and more, since it's tied into the Amazon ecosystem (streaming, books, etc).

Nintendo cannot compete with cheap tablets for the casual market. if their only competition was $600 iPads they would have a market, but it looks like they were blindsided by how fast prices have crashed for tablets.

You seem to misunderstand the point of the wiiu tablet and what it does. First its not competing with a real tablet. The reason it is a tablet is that tablets are familiar and easy to use from the standpoint of an input device. Ease of use and familiarity is a fundamental requirement for potentially appealing to any part of the broad market.

The wiiu tablet is a canvas for nintenods user experiences. Just because technically a tablet can perform a similar function doesn't mean shit. Its the software and experience created on the device that creates the appeal. Using the tablet "like" controller in a new and fun ways. They also packed in certain ideas in the tablet that are not found in normal tablets. Standard computing tablets where designed for a different function just like the wiiu tablet was. They are similar on a very surface level but VERY different in purpose.