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[donny2112]

If you don't think NSMBW was mainly responsible for the record setting sales, which game/games was it?

The "availability" game. Every other holiday sales period was severely supply-constrained. Now the "must have" item for three Christmases running (that, yes, just had another game put out worth buying the system for, and probably drove some sales on its own) was finally in stores to buy, and now cheaper, too. Availability being the main driver. Doesn't matter how great the games are if the system can't be found to be bought. You also can't just dismiss the other staple Wii games (i.e. evergreens) just because they came out earlier. For the people who would usually only consider buying a system for Christmas, prior availability in 2009 wouldn't have made a difference.

December 2009

Wii hardware: 3.91m

NSMB Wii - 2.8m
Wii Fit Plus - 2.4m
Wii Sports Resort - 1.8m
Wii Play - 1.0m
Mario Kart Wii - 0.9m

It was not NSMB Wii alone driving sales in December 2009. Even if you want to be obstinate and say it had to be a new game driving sales in the season where people buy stuff just to buy stuff (and especially the "popular" stuff for gifts), you'd have almost as much reason to say it was Wii Fit Plus driving sales.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

The "availability" game. Every other holiday sales period was severely supply-constrained. Now the "must have" item for three Christmases running (that, yes, just had another game put out worth buying the system for, and probably drove some sales on its own) was finally in stores to buy, and now cheaper, too. Availability being the main driver. Doesn't matter how great the games are if the system can't be found to be bought. You also can't just dismiss the other staple Wii games (i.e. evergreens) just because they came out earlier. For the people who would usually only consider buying a system for Christmas, prior availability in 2009 wouldn't have made a difference.

December 2009

Wii hardware: 3.91m

NSMB Wii - 2.8m
Wii Fit Plus - 2.4m
Wii Sports Resort - 1.8m
Wii Play - 1.0m
Mario Kart Wii - 0.9m

It was not NSMB Wii alone driving sales in December 2009. Even if you want to be obstinate and say it had to be a new game driving sales in the season where people buy stuff just to buy stuff (and especially the "popular" stuff for gifts), you'd have almost as much reason to say it was Wii Fit Plus driving sales.

It was the combined effect of NSMB Wii, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort and the Wii's back catalogue that drove sales. Simple really.

 

[MeBecomingI]

I just hope Sony never goes the route of MS and cuts back on their first party output. The PS3's exclusives are what has made the system so great to me this gen. I cannot wait to play the Last Guardian, though it'll probably tank at retail compared to the dudebro blockbusters.

Well, I don't think that will happen for a long, long time... if ever. Sony is most definitely aware of the dying state of third-party exclusives and that is why they have continuously played up and continues to grow the massive stable of first-party studios. I think you can see that Sony wants to focus on the first-party, because that is what will differentiate themselves greatly from Microsoft and Nintendo. Nintendo is the closest to Sony in terms of first-party support, but Nintendo generally focuses on a few specific franchises and that is it. Sony continues to grow and build new IP's. If anything, Sony is keeping studios alive by buying them... better Sony than, say, Activision or THQ...

 

[CadetMahoney]

That's exactly it. Just like 10 or so years ago when "playing Playstation" supplanted "playing Nintendo" in mindshare and popular culture in America, it is now all about "playing Xbox." That's why the 360 has been doing so much better than the others the last year or so, the Xbox brand has graduated to that sweet spot where it's practically synonymous with video games.

This is the last thing I thought would happen this gen, but the writing was on the wall since 2007.

The exact amount remains a mystery... Sony has been unusually quiet and the lack of leaks leading up to GamesCom isn't helping.

when there is a price drop there is usually some sort of hint, some random blurb about something someone saw in a newspaper, but nothing. Not too sure if they will even price drop. Or maybe it's just too early to tell.

 

[Kilrogg]

Donny, if the only thing that bothers you about my point is my choice of words ("single-handedly"), then sorry about that, but don't let that steer you away from the bigger picture.

Nobody is denying that the price cut and availability had their effect. But here's the piece of data that will at least make you consider the possibility that NSMB might have had a bigger impact than those.

Here are the Wii sales for October 2007, 2008 and 2009, then November 2007, 2008 and 2009 (for the sake of having a clear view).

Oct 2007: 0.519M (supply-constrained)
Oct 2008: 0.803M (supply-constrained)
Oct 2009: 0.506M (readily available + price-cut in effect starting Sept. 27)

Nov 2007: 0.981M (supply-constrained)
Nov 2008: 2.04M (supply-constrained)
Nov 2009: 1.26M (readily available, price-cut Sept. 27th, NSMB Wii Nov 15th)

First, would you agree that the price-cut from the end of September 2009 and the availability of the system would have an effect as early as October? If so, one can see the system did way better in October 2008 than 2009, and on par with 2007 (that's pre-MK, pre-Wii Fit, pre-Brawl and pre-Galaxy).

Second, would you agree that the surge in sales at the end of the year doesn't start in December but actually November, because of Black Friday and because people start their Christmas shopping as early as November (same thing happens in Europe)? I'll assume you do, but if not, please tell me why.

The reasoning goes like this: the Wii wasn't nearly as available in Oct-Nov. 2008 as it was in 2009, yet sold 300.000 + 800.000 more units. In addition, the price cut in 2009 had been effective since Sept 27th, while NSMB Wii had been released in mid-November (meaning its impact had yet to be fully felt, but was starting to show). Now, maybe there's some kind of critical piece of information that I miss, but it looks to me like availability wasn't doing much at all for the system, and that the same could be said of the price cut. It's probably true that the combination of the two + NSMB Wii is what allowed the system to go as far as 3.8M in December, but I have to ask how much of that — nearly twice as many units as Dec 2008 — can be attributed to hardware price and availability when all the data shows that they weren't that effective before that if we do a YoY comparison? In such a scenario, wouldn't it be more logical to attribute the lion's share of hardware growth to the most recent factor, i.e. NSMB? Let's not forget that NSMB Wii sold 2.8M on its own that month (best-selling title of the month) and was the first console 2D Mario game in nearly 2 decades. Its impact can't and shouldn't be undermined when taking into account the series' power, how long it had been dormant, how many units it sold that month (and LTD), and how well its handheld counterpart was... I'm sorry is selling.

You usually have your data in check, but it seems to me you're not paying close enough attention this time, and that you don't lend much credence to Occam's razor. Games sell hardware. Price cuts and availability lower the barriers of entry, but the hardware is just a box, and the software drives the demand, not the other way around. The system-selling potential of freaking 2D Mario, of all games, can't be ignored. I really don't see what's controversial or unbelievable about this statement, especially to sales-agers/people who have an interest in business like yourself. It's, like, common knowledge at this point. Games sell hardware. SMB sells hardware better than pretty much any other game series. Always has been the case, always will be as long as Nintendo doesn't screw up.

 

[onipex]

It's probably already been pointed out by now, but isn't the fact that the DS continues to sell well and the 3DS continues to struggle a testament to the overall shittyness of the 3DS (at least at it's old price point) and that "smartphone" gaming hasn't exactly supplanted the handheld market like a lot of analysts seem to think it has?

Its been said before but the GBA outsold the DS too. It did it not only for months after release , but it also outsold the DS over a year after release. Then Brainage and NSMB, were released. Like the DS before it the 3DS needs games and Nintendo still can't do a good launch for a two screen handheld.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Its been said before but the GBA outsold the DS too. It did it not only for months after release , but it also outsold the DS over a year after release.

I went to check out the old numbers and say something like "Before Lite, GBA outsold DS X out of Y months.". But oh wow, I DID NOT remember that before Lite, GBA outsold DS 19 out of 19 months in the US. And never again after that.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

when there is a price drop there is usually some sort of hint, some random blurb about something someone saw in a newspaper, but nothing. Not too sure if they will even price drop. Or maybe it's just too early to tell.

The PS3 price drop really depends on if sales drop for the system and how much they drop by how much they drop the price. Again, they have projected the same amount of sales as last year at $299 and they almost made those numbers.

So if Sony sees a slight drop, they may drop to $249 to bring them back to last years numbers but if they see a major drop in sales this year then we will see a $199 drop. I personally think we will see a $250 with a pack in or $199 and they go way past their projected numbers.

 

[Brimstone]

I think that Uncharted 3 and Gears 3 will be bigger than Rage, and perhaps Skyrim as well. Just wanted to say that

RAGE looks like it will be one of those special games like Half-Life. There seems to be a lot of buzz of it being game of the year.

 

[TheNatural]

Anyone have a comparison of last gen versus this gen in price drops? This gen is stingy as hell it feels like.

 

[ReBurn]

There's nothing in the software department that I'm looking forward to until fall. Did anything noteworthy release in July?

 

[Mortrialus]

Man, Catherine's revelation of only really selling 78K is depressing.

 

[donny2112]

First, would you agree that the price-cut from the end of September 2009 and the availability of the system would have an effect as early as October?

Of course, and it did as clearly shown from the weekly breakdown in September and the increase in October compared to pre-price drop months.

If so, one can see the system did way better in October 2008 than 2009, and on par with 2007 (that's pre-MK, pre-Wii Fit, pre-Brawl and pre-Galaxy).

Huge fallacy Kilrogg. Nintendo sold what they shipped pretty much every month for 2.5 years from launch. Therefore, you cannot compare sellout months as regular months. They do not operate the same. Why was it sold out for 2.5 years? Wii Sports was a huge reason. Wii Fit and Mario Kart really did a great job keeping that momentum going. Wii Music/Animal Crossing killed it. It's no surprise that the sellouts ended shortly after Fall 2008. Let's compare post-sellout months, shall we?

Wii Weekly averages (NPD)
March 2009 - 120K (this is the month supply finally exceeded demand)
April 2009 - 85K
May 2009 - 72K
June 2009 - 72K
July 2009 - 63K
August 2009 - 69K
September 2009 - 93K (this is the price cut month)

Looking at September 2009 more closely, since the price cut was at the end of the month,

Sept-09 pre-price cut weekly average - ~44K
Sept-09 post-price cut sales (1 week) - ~287K

Now for October, let's look at historical precedence in months that can actually be compared (e.g. not any of Wii's sellout months).

PS2 weekly average (June-Sept 2002) - ~117K
PS2 weekly average (Oct 2002) - 129K

PS2 weekly average (June-Sept 2003) - ~76K
PS2 weekly average (Oct 2003) - 73K

Now let's look at Wii.

Wii weekly average (June-Sept 2009) - ~74K (63K excluding price cut week)
Wii weekly average (Oct 2009) - 127K (159K including price cut week from Sept.)

What can we draw from this? That the price cut had a clear, immediate, and large impact on Wii sales.

However, my main point is that there is clearly an unusual uptick in console sales every single year in the U.S. from Black Friday week until Christmas. What could this mean? Could, perhaps, there be a consumer that is unusually looking for video game consoles that isn't looking the rest of the year? Maybe! Could said consumer readily find the hottest Christmas item each of the previous three years during that period? Not really! Could they in 2009? You betcha! Did that have a big impact on Wii sales in 2009? Maybe a little!

Second, would you agree that the surge in sales at the end of the year doesn't start in December but actually November, because of Black Friday and because people start their Christmas shopping as early as November (same thing happens in Europe)?

Actually Europe usually waits until right at December to see a big uptick in sales. There's an increase in November, but not as severe as Black Friday's affect in the U.S. Pretty much, though, yeah.

The reasoning goes like this: the Wii wasn't nearly as available in Oct-Nov. 2008 as it was in 2009, yet sold 300.000 + 800.000 more units.

There's that "let's compare to previous Wii months when shipped = sold" fallacy, again.

Now, maybe there's some kind of critical piece of information that I miss,

* Comparing Wii YOY to sellout months. Doesn't work so well.
* Lack of recognition that there's a significant bit of shopping done from Black Friday to Christmas that just isn't done over the rest of the year.

but it looks to me like availability wasn't doing much at all for the system,

It wasn't December, yet. See second point above.

It's probably true that the combination of the two + NSMB Wii is what allowed the system to go as far as 3.8M in December, but I have to ask how much of that — nearly twice as many units as Dec 2008 — can be attributed to hardware price and availability when all the data shows that they weren't that effective before that if we do a YoY comparison?

Because YOY comparisons are pretty useless to gauge selling potential, when the any of those comparison months are heavy sellout months.

In such a scenario, wouldn't it be more logical to attribute the lion's share of hardware growth to the most recent factor, i.e. NSMB?

The more recent factor is the fact that it's the Christmas shopping season. If you want to say a recent game did it, you might as well be singing Wii Fit Plus's praise since it had come out the month before.

Let's not forget that NSMB Wii sold 2.8M on its own that month

Wii Fit Plus sold 2.4m. :O

was the first console 2D Mario game in nearly 2 decades. Its impact can't and shouldn't be undermined when taking into account the series' power, how long it had been dormant, how many units it sold that month (and LTD), and how well its handheld counterpart was... I'm sorry is selling.

I definitely believe it helped, yes. Majority driving factor when the Wii had not been readily available during the Christmas shopping season the previous three years and now was (with a clearly helping price cut, too)? I'm doubtful. Now, was the catalog that now included NSMB Wii a big impact to selling those consoles when this was the first time it was readily available in the Christmas shopping season? Yes, definitely. Again, can't have sales when you can't buy it, though.

Games sell hardware.

And the catalog, including NSMB Wii, did. The catalog did for 2.5 years from launch, too, until Wii Music/Animal Crossing soured the well. Actually having stock available when people are actually looking to buy it is crucial, though. That's what kept previous holiday sales periods (maybe not 2006 so much, since it was still new, but definitely 2007/8) much more below what they could've sold.

I'm not debating that NSMB Wii was part of the driving factors in December 2009's 3.91m Wii sales. What I'm debating is that NSMB Wii somehow should take the credit for the lionshare of those sales, when the data around it doesn't support such a narrow-minded conclusion. You were stating it here. kame-sennin has stated it previously (and got a similar response, at the time).

If you're just saying that NSMB Wii was part of the catalog (maybe even the biggest individual game part) that provided the demand to sell 3.91m Wiis now that they were actually available in the busiest shopping season of the year, then I have no problem with that. It's the narrow view that NSMB Wii alone pushed it to those levels that I strongly disagree with.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Anyone have a comparison of last gen versus this gen in price drops? This gen is stingy as hell it feels like.

Not really comparable because of the high price of the PS3, it was the first time in a very long time that you could not buy a popular system at launch for $299.

So starting off so high took the pressure off MS to drop to stay competitive. Also, it let Sony do 2 or 3 price drops just to get to the launch price of the PS2. Had the PS3 been launched at no more than $399 I think we would see more of a regular pattern of price drops like we have previously.

Now that Sony may drop their price, this will finally put pressure on MS to drop theirs and we will see more of a return to normal price drops on the systems IMO.

 

[kame-sennin]

The "availability" game. Every other holiday sales period was severely supply-constrained. Now the "must have" item for three Christmases running (that, yes, just had another game put out worth buying the system for, and probably drove some sales on its own) was finally in stores to buy, and now cheaper, too. Availability being the main driver. Doesn't matter how great the games are if the system can't be found to be bought. You also can't just dismiss the other staple Wii games (i.e. evergreens) just because they came out earlier. For the people who would usually only consider buying a system for Christmas, prior availability in 2009 wouldn't have made a difference.

I don't think you understand my argument. Perhaps this is my fault; maybe I'm not making myself clear. I really have no disagreement with what you said in bold. I absolutely believe that Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart were driving sales for the first few years of the Wii, and must have played an important role in December 2009 sales. My only argument is that NSMBW is responsible for Wii not just doing better than previous holidays, but doing better than PS2, DS, or any other console in any December in console history. To further clarify, in my view there are only two possible explanations for Wii December 2009 sales:

1) Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Mario Kart pushed the Wii into sold out status for two years (indisputable) and thus, when the Wii was finally available in December 2009, these games were the primary drivers of the record breaking sales.

2) Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Mario Kart drove Wii sales for two years, but as evidenced by the pre-holiday lul, were not pushing as much hardware as they had previously. The release of NSMBW caused a surge in momentum for the system that resulted in record breaking sales.

I think number 2 is more likely, but that number 1 is not an unreasonable hypothesis.

If you're just saying that NSMB Wii was part of the catalog (maybe even the biggest individual game part) that provided the demand to sell 3.91m Wiis now that they were actually available in the busiest shopping season of the year, then I have no problem with that.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

It's the narrow view that NSMB Wii alone pushed it to those levels that I strongly disagree with.

I think you're splitting hairs. If a console sells based on a catalog of games, and one game is the primary driver, I don't think it's unreasonable to say, "game X drove sales of console Y". "Drove" does not mean singularly responsible, it simply implies a leadership role. People do this all the time, and it's always clear what they mean. 'Wii Sports drove sales of the Wii', 'Nintendogs turned the DS around', 'Final Fantasy made PS1 the clear market leader'. In all of those cases, there were other games playing significant, even essential, supporting roles, but that doesn't make those statements untrue. In the case of NSMBW, of course it was relying on Wii Sports and the rest of Wii the catalog. The reason why myself and others focus on NSMBW is because:

Wii Fit and Mario Kart really did a great job keeping that momentum going. Wii Music/Animal Crossing killed it.

Wii's momentum took a huge hit, and in spite of that, NSMBW was able to (temporarily) turn it around (which Kilrogg explained very well above). Not only did it turn things around, but it helped Wii break sales records. That's a big deal. It's also the sixth game in a franchise that is known for being perhaps the greatest system sellers of all time. A franchise where most installments have no trouble breaking the 20 million units barrier. Saying NSMBW drove Wii sales in December of 2009 seems like a fairly innocuous statement.

 

[Kilrogg]

Donny, I'll be entirely honest: it's super late (so late you could say it's early) here, and I'm not sure I got everything you were saying, especially about the whole "fallacy" thing, but from the end of your post:

If you're just saying that NSMB Wii was part of the catalog (maybe even the biggest individual game part) that provided the demand to sell 3.91m Wiis now that they were actually available in the busiest shopping season of the year, then I have no problem with that. It's the narrow view that NSMB Wii alone pushed it to those levels that I strongly disagree with.

So it was as I suspected: you focused solely on my — admittedly poor — choice of words earlier when I said "single-handedly". Fine, guilty as charged, I used hyperbole. Yes, technically nobody could actually say that with a straight face, because if one game was basically all people were seeing at one point — dismissing every other game or external factor —, the system would never sell as well as it did that month. So yeah, obviously Wii Fit, MK, Wii Sports et al had their impact too (although, I would argue that using Wii Fit Plus to prove anything here is dubious in the sense that it wasn't even a sequel so much as an add-on/update). The reason why I didn't mention the other games is that 1) it should go without saying to anyone here that people don't strictly buy a system for one game but also consider the back catalog and the potential future catalog, with that one game being the tipping point, 2) I do believe that, among all the Wii games available at that time, NSMB Wii was the major pusher of hardware that month. This is something we basically cannot prove through raw data (unless all the other games sold like shit), and I'm glad we agree that this at least should be common sense .

Getting back to the rest of your post, you've established that the price-cut had an immediate effect. Thanks for the tidbit. I'm not extremely surprised considering price cuts always have an immediate effect (the question being "is it long-term"), but at least your data showed the impact was slightly bigger than I previously thought.

As for your main point — and again, since I'm not sure I follow you here, feel free to correct me —, you are arguing that a considerable share of consumers buy en masse come Black Friday and December. Which I'd never argue against. If the system was as supply-constrained as it was in 2008 and 2007, it would never have been technically able to sell 4M units, NSMB or not, because those units wouldn't have been physically there. But doesn't that make availability a circumstancial factor (i.e it doesn't create any demand, but it allows the demand to translate into sales) as opposed to an actual cause? When I say "NSMB sold 4M systems" — I know, hyperbole —, I mean it CAUSED the system to reach the 4M milestone. It was the reason why the systems flew off the shelves even more than they usually do in December. Availability was just the enabler for the system to sell more.

That leaves the price cut argument. Again, you established that it had an impact, and I'm sure that, as short-lived as it might have been, it lasted until December at least. Where I don't follow you is when you're saying that many people are basically patiently waiting all year until Black Friday/December to buy products. I'm saying that, regardless of whether that's true or not, a 50-dollar price-cut, while lowering the barrier of entry to be sure, doesn't create the demand itself (because the actual content, the system and its games, don't change), and is just that: $50 cheaper. Between a 50-dollar price drop and an actual game (the stuff that actually motivates purchases the most in the first place) that also happens to be the long-awaited sequel to the biggest series in the entire industry (+ all the other games), which do you think had more to do with those record-breaking sales? And what's the ratio here? 60/40? 70/30? 80/20? Because this is where we seem to disagree. I don't know what would be your ratio, but I personally it's heavily-tilted towards NSMB (say, 70/30 or 80/20). I get the feeling yours would be something like 60/40 or 55/45 (50/50?).

tl;dr: Really, the point is simply that availability is a circumstancial factor, and the price cut was only $50, and it lowered a barrier of entry that was already damn low — certainly nothing like a $100 price-cut + redesign for the PS3, or an $80 price-cut for the 3DS. In the end, neither of them drove the record-breaking sales in December. The former was an enabler, and the latter gave the sales a boost, which is why I don't think there was much value in arguing all that much about my hyperbole. As logically inaccurate as it was (like all hyperbole), the point is that the major, actual driver for the Wii's success at that point was indeed NSMB (and to a lesser extent the other games).

If you'll allow me to rephrase once and for all: "NSMB was the major driver of hardware sales in December 2009". Is that more acceptable? If so, well then, let's just say we've lost our time because that's basically what I meant from the very beginning, thinking that hyperbole wouldn't keep you from seeing my point. "Single-handedly" is almost always hyperbole for "majorly", yet everyone uses it without anyone batting an eyelash, because everyone understand what the person actually means by that.

[Note] If your point is basically that on account of it being December, the system would have sold, say, upwards of 1.5M units even without a price cut or NSMB, well, yeah, I agree. But again, did you really believe that just because I said "single-handedly" I meant that the period had absolutely nothing to do with it?

[EDIT] Kame-sennin, dude, I hate you. I should really work on my conciseness. I won't delete my post, but donny, if you feel you don't get what I'm saying, just read kame-sennin's post. We both mean exactly the same thing, only he expresses it better. Like he said, I just think you're splitting hairs, and that my statement was innocuous, but somehow ticked you off because of one word that I obviously didn't literally mean.

 

[donny2112]

First a correction. It was 3.81m sales in Dec-2009, not 3.91m like I kept saying above.

My only argument is that NSMBW is responsible for Wii not just doing better than previous holidays, but doing better than PS2, DS, or any other console in any December in console history.

So the assertion is that NSMB Wii alone is responsible for at least 500K (amount Dec-2009 sales were above any other system's December sales) Wiis sold in December 2009? If so, I do not agree with the "alone" part. Pushed it over the top to sell another 500K systems for anyone who wasn't sure? Maybe. Almost impossible to know for sure, but not out of the question.

To further clarify, in my view there are only two possible explanations for Wii December 2009 sales:

1) Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Mario Kart pushed the Wii into sold out status for two years (indisputable) and thus, when the Wii was finally available in December 2009, these games were the primary drivers of the record breaking sales.

Along with NSMB Wii and price drop (and $50 GC @ Wal-Mart to some degree; though, it's unclear how much that played into NPD's reporting, since they only estimate for Wal-Mart sales; if that was part of it, maybe Nintendo "helped" NPD out on the monthly total?). I'm not saying that if NSMB Wii had not come out and no price drop that it would've sold the same 3.8m systems. Price drop kick started Wii momentum in late September (as seen above) and NSMB Wii could've easily shifted it into another gear. In 2009, while the price drop was long overdue and necessary, I lamented the fact that we wouldn't be getting a true read on Wii's selling strength in December without shortages and without a price drop. Therefore, we never got a real baseline on what Wii could sell if it was actually available in December for people to buy.

NSMB Wii definitely helped, but it might've still sold more than 3.3m (DS's Dec-2009 total and second-highest monthly total in U.S.) with SMGalaxy 2 in that slot and price drop with availability (and other back catalog).

I think you're splitting hairs.

Not when the original quote talks about NSMB Wii "single-handedly" (or "lion's share") pushing Wii sales in Dec-2009. I'm pretty sure your quote in an MC thread some months ago when this was brought up then was pretty similar, too. The clear meaning is that the other factors (e.g. the fact that it was December, the fact that Wii was actually readily available in December for the first time) weren't real big, and that it was NSMB Wii carrying the Wii for the month. That I completely disagree with.

If a console sells based on a catalog of games, and one game is the primary driver,

What determines primary driver? Wii Fit Plus sold almost as much as NSMB Wii in December, and Wii Fit already had a long history of being 1:1 purchases with Wiis.

"Drove" does not mean singularly responsible, it simply implies a leadership role. People do this all the time, and it's always clear what they mean. 'Wii Sports drove sales of the Wii',

Wii Sports did almost singularly drive sales of the Wii early on. It wasn't really much of a group effort at first.

'Nintendogs turned the DS around',

Actually, that was Brain Training, and it still didn't explode until Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and Brain Training 2 came around. i.e. a catalog of games.

The reason why myself and others focus on NSMBW is because:

Fall 2008 dampened things enough to make the monthly sell-outs end. However as discussed already, there is a different mindset for the Christmas season shopper. While some of the shine was off for the Wii through much of 2009, it's a whole different ballgame come Christmastime. Price drop helped start things revving up again, and NSMB Wii definitely helped increase awareness/desire for Wii, too. Then when Christmas shopping season came around (and people are wanting to buy something the other person will like, not evaluating monthly sales trends), "that big item from before that was so popular you couldn't find it and that's still popular now" was available, so they bought it. In record numbers. Some of that awareness was due to NSMB Wii, definitely, but if it was just NSMB Wii without the other games, it wouldn't have sold what it did.

It sounds like you're fine saying that Wii sold what it did in December 2009 because of availability, price drop, and catalog of games with NSMB Wii being the primary game of that catalog. If that's the case, then we'd just be arguing over how "primary" was NSMB Wii in that catalog. Not really much to argue there, as it's somewhat subjective. (again, be aware that Wii Fit Plus sold 2.4m in the same month, so it wasn't like NSMB Wii was the only huge game for Wii that month.)

Does that bolded part sound about right?

Edit:

(although, I would argue that using Wii Fit Plus to prove anything here is dubious in the sense that it wasn't even a sequel so much as an add-on/update).

Nintendo has made it clear that the Balance Board version of Wii Fit Plus has been the main seller of the two versions. That would put the Balance Board version at 1.3m behind NSMB Wii's LTD in the U.S. (8.36m vs. 7.06m), and therefore shouldn't be considered just an expansion on the original as it would be if the $20 version were the main one selling.

Edit2:

But doesn't that make availability a circumstancial factor (i.e it doesn't create any demand, but it allows the demand to translate into sales) as opposed to an actual cause? When I say "NSMB sold 4M systems" — I know, hyperbole —, I mean it CAUSED the system to reach the 4M milestone. It was the reason why the systems flew off the shelves even more than they usually do in December. Availability was just the enabler for the system to sell more.

That's fine, if you're looking at NSMB Wii as the push to get it that final ways to 3.8m. Don't have a problem with that.

Between a 50-dollar price drop and an actual game (the stuff that actually motivates purchases the most in the first place) that also happens to be the long-awaited sequel to the biggest series in the entire industry (+ all the other games), which do you think had more to do with those record-breaking sales?

The mainstream doesn't typically await games, at all. Much less wait a long time for them (e.g. 18 years). If you're buying something for yourself, $50 may not mean much. If you're buying something for someone else (i.e. most purchases at Christmastime), that $50 can start to look pretty big (and add a $50 WM GC on top of that, which is basically as good as cash to most shoppers in the U.S.). I'm still saying that availability is bigger, but there's a reason people line up hours in advance of a store opening on Black Friday, after all. Price reductions in the Christmas season are big drivers of sales. That's a known quantity.

Really, the point is simply that availability is a circumstancial factor,

Which allows demand to translate into sales, as you said. That circumstantial factor was first readily available to the mainstream Christmas buyers in December 2009, and that, combined with Wii's already high popularity as the "must-have" Christmas item based on reputation from past years and reinforced by the price cut and NSMB Wii (as a part of the catalog that propelled it to be a "must-have" item in the first place) pushed it to such high sales.

the point is that the major, actual driver for the Wii's success at that point was indeed NSMB (and to a lesser extent the other games).

Only in the sense that it helped keep Wii as the "must-have" system for the Christmas shopping season, but this time it was actually in stock!

If you'll allow me to rephrase once and for all: "NSMB was the major driver of hardware sales in December 2009". Is that more acceptable?

A major driver, yes. If you insist on "the", then no.

[Note] If your point is basically that on account of it being December, the system would have sold, say, upwards of 1.5M units even without a price cut or NSMB, well, yeah, I agree.

With price cut (and Wal-Mart GC sale, thought it would've had to be Nintendo telling NPD what it sold, in that case) and without NSMB Wii, I'd wouldn't be surprised by well over 3m for the month.

But again, did you really believe that just because I said "single-handedly" I meant that the period had absolutely nothing to do with it?

That was kame-sennin's position when we argued this in an MC thread some time ago, so it wasn't out of the question. :/ Edit3: kame-sennin said he didn't mean that, though. See below post.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

The "availability" game. Every other holiday sales period was severely supply-constrained. Now the "must have" item for three Christmases running (that, yes, just had another game put out worth buying the system for, and probably drove some sales on its own) was finally in stores to buy, and now cheaper, too. Availability being the main driver. Doesn't matter how great the games are if the system can't be found to be bought. You also can't just dismiss the other staple Wii games (i.e. evergreens) just because they came out earlier. For the people who would usually only consider buying a system for Christmas, prior availability in 2009 wouldn't have made a difference.

December 2009

Wii hardware: 3.91m

NSMB Wii - 2.8m
Wii Fit Plus - 2.4m
Wii Sports Resort - 1.8m
Wii Play - 1.0m
Mario Kart Wii - 0.9m

It was not NSMB Wii alone driving sales in December 2009. Even if you want to be obstinate and say it had to be a new game driving sales in the season where people buy stuff just to buy stuff (and especially the "popular" stuff for gifts), you'd have almost as much reason to say it was Wii Fit Plus driving sales.

Looking back now at these numbers: holy shit. Just one month

 

[Kilrogg]

Regarding Wii Fit: duly noted. I still think it had less of an impact than NSMB Wii (not to say it was negligible), but we'd be splitting hairs even more and basically couldn't prove each other wrong on this, so let's just leave it that.

I didn't think you'd be so harsh with NSMB Wii though. Not even crediting him for 500.000 sales? That sounds like reaaally underselling it. I know, technically you're just saying that those 500k weren't "just" thinking of NSMB, but even that's selling it short. For a moment I'd think you don't attribute NSMB much more value than that of nostalgia.

 

[donny2112]

For a moment I'd think you don't attribute NSMB much more value than that of nostalgia.

In terms of the mainstream buyer, I don't, at least the initial sales. After that, word of mouth would've kept it up, though.

 

[kame-sennin]

That was kame-sennin's position when we argued this in an MC thread some time ago, so it wasn't out of the question. :/

No it wasn't. I never have and never would argue that the holiday sales period in NA has no effect on hardware sales.

 

[donny2112]

No it wasn't. I never have and never would argue that the holiday sales period in NA has no effect on hardware sales.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=417240

Looking back, it was more that you were dead set on NSMB Wii being the driver and seeming to want to ignore the fact that this was the first December for Wii without supply constraints. I certainly got the idea that you wanted to dismiss the December effect (see the end of my last post on the subject in that thread), but it doesn't look like you explicity said that, no. If you didn't mean that the December's effect was negligible, then sorry for suggesting that.

 

[kame-sennin]

No worries. This debate revolves around a storm of interlocking issues with no hard data pointing to any single factor as being the most significant. It can be difficult to gauge where exactly people are coming from. My perspective is simply that games are always the number one most significant factor in any sales discussion. Further, I think that 2D Mario is probably the greatest system seller of all time, with the only close competitors being Tetris, Pokemon, and Wii Sports.

 

[Rolf NB]

It was the combined effect of the Wii that drove Wii sales. Simple really.

You might as well say it like this, pretty much.

Though NSMBW was the big thing it didn't have before, that accelerated it in a way that was quite surprising, really. All the other stuff had already been there before, and didn't make a visible impact into that particular timeframe.

 

[Kilrogg]

In terms of the mainstream buyer, I don't, at least the initial sales. After that, word of mouth would've kept it up, though.

The 2D Mario buyer is the mainstream buyer. It's the "mainstreamest" buyer of them all. It just so happens to include enthusiasts as well. And even if you want to pin it down to nostalgia (at first), that doesn't mean all the people who bought the game in December were already Wii owners. As the biggest series and biggest system-seller ever (apart from Wii Sports), and with this home console installment coming out 18 years after the last one, there is bound to be quite a number of people who jumped on the game and the system as soon as they saw Super Mario Bros. had finally returned. And the game was pushed hard by Nintendo and stood out on the shelves with its red case. It's not like people didn't know of its existence for months and the game's sales slowly started to ramp up as months went by. Half a month — the game came out in mid-November — was plenty enough for such a game to gather word-of-mouth.

If you're wondering, yes, I still stand by the notion that NSMB Wii was THE major driver. Not the only driver, and I don't mean that Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort had little impact, but that, of all the games, NSMB was the most important at that time. But I suppose we'll agree to disagree on this one since it's basically impossible to prove with raw data. You'd have to go to the stores and see how people behaved and who bought the game. My position is basically that WSR was the sequel to the game that sold systems in the first place and as such must have mainly (not only) sold to existing Wii owners, and Wii Fit Plus is a bit more blurry. I believe it still had a bigger impact than WSR (the significant discrepancy in sales in December between the two suggests that), but was still slightly a notch under NSMB in terms of system-selling power. It is a sequel/replacement to a game that had been released a year and a half before and had already sold a considerable amount of copies and systems until that point. Its effect has to have been subdued (but still far from negligible obviously). I mean, it's common sense, right? In contrast, NSMB, as far as the Wii is concerned — heck, as far as the home console market is concerned — was pretty much something completely "new". Nothing like it on the market. The only equivalent was NSMB DS and that proved and still proves today the incredible strength of the game as a game and as a system-seller. If anything, people who discovered 2D Mario with the DS version and loved it might have jumped on the Wii as soon as they saw it also got a similar game. Assuming those people were only a fraction of NSMB DS owners, we're talking a fraction of 20+ million customers here. It's not like DS owners are automatically Wii owners and vice versa, after all.

 

[donny2112]

The 2D Mario buyer is the mainstream buyer. It's the "mainstreamest" buyer of them all.

Mainstream buyers don't follow series (unless they've already been following them, e.g. Madden, COD) much less a side of the series that hadn't been seen in 18 years (i.e. 2-D). The prospect that millions of mainstream, non-Wii owners were just waiting for a 2-D Mario game to buy the system is basically a laughable concept. Forum goers, maybe. Not the mainstream. If you need to be explained why mainstream buyers aren't waiting for that one particular game from a decade dormant series to buy a system for, then you haven't been paying attention to what's been discussed in sales threads since you've been at GAF.

And even if you want to pin it down to nostalgia (at first), that doesn't mean all the people who bought the game in December were already Wii owners.

So? That doesn't mean they were salivating at the opportunity to buy a 2-D Mario game and waiting for that game to come out before buying a Wii, either.

As the biggest series and biggest system-seller ever (apart from Wii Sports),

Your mention of Wii Sport indicates that you're not speaking historically, but specifically about Wii system sellers. In which case, I'd place Wii Fit/Plus as the biggest single-game system seller for Wii after Wii Sports. Nintendo has mentioned that it is often a 1:1 purchase with the system, and in the Media Create thread linked to above, there's a graph showing a possible consistent correlation between Wii Fit/Plus and Wii in Japan weekly sales, as well. In which case, it's reasonable to look at the 2.4m Wii Fit Plus purchases as adding a fairly large bit of Wii console purchases to that 3.81m total, as well.

there is bound to be quite a number of people who jumped on the game and the system as soon as they saw Super Mario Bros. had finally returned.

See above.

Half a month — the game came out in mid-November — was plenty enough for such a game to gather word-of-mouth.

No, word of mouth would not have had time to go from early November (with many purchases then possibly already being planned to be opened at Christmas, so not being played, yet) to December to override the fact that it was December and therefore the biggest shopping season of the year. It was red case to draw attention, definitely. It was Nintendo's big pushed game in Fall 2009, definitely (based on the release slot). Stick SMGalaxy 2 with a red case and as Nintendo's big pushed game for Wii in the biggest shopping season for the year with the hottest item from the last three Christmases (i.e. the Wii itself along with its catalog of games), and Wii sales would've decreased by ...?

If you're wondering, yes, I still stand by the notion that NSMB Wii was THE major driver.

Which I disagree with, since looking at the numbers combined with situation does not support that NSMB Wii was the primary driver for the the 3.81m sales in December 2009. It was part of a game catalog that along with availability allowed it to sell that much, but not on its own, definitely not.

Not the only driver, and I don't mean that Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort had little impact, but that, of all the games, NSMB was the most important at that time.

Possibly, but more like slightly higher than other games (e.g. Wii Fit Plus) rather than far-and-away higher than other games. It's still possible that Wii Fit Plus was bought with more new console purchases that month, though. Nintendo would probably know for sure, but I don't think I've seen anything from them on it.

Wii Fit Plus is a bit more blurry. I believe it still had a bigger impact than WSR (the significant discrepancy in sales in December between the two suggests that), but was still slightly a notch under NSMB in terms of system-selling power.

Definitely possible.

It is a sequel/replacement to a game that had been released a year and a half before

Again, if the main selling version was the one without the Balance Board, then you'd have a point. However that was not the case, so that's not a reasonable statement. It did take the place of Wii Fit, as Wii Fit was totally phased out. However, that just means it slipped into the same system-selling role that Wii Fit was in. Again, 7.06m Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board were sold in the U.S. through July 2011 according to Nintendo. NSMB Wii was at 8.36m.

Its effect has to have been subdued (but still far from negligible obviously). I mean, it's common sense, right?

Thankfully, we have data and statements from Nintendo to correct that mistaken notion of "common sense."

Edit:
Re: Wii Fit Plus
Kilrogg, read this page from Nintendo's IR site.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/100507/03.html

Edit2:
Even better. Data from Nintendo themselves showing more than 2x the hardware puchases with Wii Fit Plus in the U.S. than for NSMB Wii based on Club Nintendo data.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/100129/05.html

Safe to say that Wii Fit Plus was a bigger individual driver of hardware sales in December 2009 than NSMB Wii was based on Nintendo's data. Regardless, I still hold to the idea that the biggest impactor was actual availability for the system for the first time in the four Christmas shopping seasons since launch. The game catalog was the reason it was desired, but availability during that absolutely crucial shopping system was the reason it could sell 3.81m.

 

[Kazerei]

50% attach rate for Wii Fit? Dayum. I guess I've really underestimated the fitness game genre. I'm always surprised to see those types of games on sales charts.

 

[Puppet Shadow]

Donny's right, that was the first Christmas you could walk into a store and easily find a Wii to buy. Sales is nothing more than supply and demand, and that December there was still huge demand, and coupled with a huge supply you get your record breaking month.

 

[kame-sennin]

Great find, donny. Clearly, Wii Fit was a much bigger system seller in December 2009 than NSMBW was. It seems that NSMBW was selling primarily to the core of the Wii audience, as opposed to expanding that audience, which is surprising considering how many copies it sold.

 

[Kilrogg]

What can I say, you got me there, donny. Interesting. I wish Nintendo had detailed their statistics, as it seems from the transcript that they basically extrapolated from their Club Nintendo regristration process. I'm not sure it's an accurate way to get data, but the statement is ambiguous enough and we don't have any way to know more, so yeah. Chances are you're right.

We still disagree on our basic outlook on it all, but oh well. I guess I just don't think it's that productive to give the availability part more than a passing mention because it doesn't create demand in and of itself. I think it's more productive to mention the price cut, but not by much when looking at the decline in sales over the year. Regardless of how concentrated sales are at the end of the year, a general decline is showing less consumer interest, and a price cut for a product that had been losing its appeal in the first place might give a boost, but just a boost. If Wii Fit Plus, and to a lesser extent NSMB and WSR had not been there, I think the system would have been far from selling 3.81 million units. My most generous estimate (which is obviously pulled out of my ass, since we can't do much more ) would be 3 million units WITH the price cut.

One more thing: you seem to have interpreted my saying that people wanted a 2D Mario and bought the system as soon as it was released somewhat oddly. I was never suggesting that people were going like "gee, I wish there were a new Mario game, it's been so long!", at least not consciously. I'm suggesting that games like 2D Mario are in phase with the needs of the market in such a way that even after many years of absence many people will just pick up the game without giving it a second thought — how many of those people are old consumers and new consumers, I don't care much, because the point is that the series has broad enough appeal to have that kind of "no-brainer" effect on both types. It appears I was wrong about how quick this would occur, and since that has a direct impact on my original assertion (i.e. that NSMB was the major driver of sales in December 2009), you were right on this one. Good catch on your part. Thanks.

 

[FreeMufasa]

So has this gens total console sales surpassed last yet?

 

[Version 3.0]

So has this gens total console sales surpassed last yet?

Yes. US totals of the 3 home consoles last gen added up to 72 million. This gen, the 360/PS3/Wii are at 81 million now. They passed last gen's total in December. They actually passed last gen's numbers, launch-aligned, after the 4th Christmas (starting from the PS2/360's first solo Christmas) at 36m vs 38m.

 

[LuchaShaq]

Man, Catherine's revelation of only really selling 78K is depressing.

Would agree if Atlus didn't release statements week or two ago saying they were really surprised and happy with the sales.

Still any sale that brings an HD persona 5 to release is a sale I want to happen.

Liked the art/voice acting in Catherine but hated the gameplay and ending.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Yes. US totals of the 3 home consoles last gen added up to 72 million. This gen, the 360/PS3/Wii are at 81 million now. They passed last gen's total in December. They actually passed last gen's numbers, launch-aligned, after the 4th Christmas (starting from the PS2/360's first solo Christmas) at 36m vs 38m.

This is so silly when they say the games market is down when it is actually up from last gen.

 

[Version 3.0]

This is so silly when they say the games market is down when it is actually up from last gen.

But it's down from last year! The corporate world revolves around comparisons with last year. Our profits from the last 5 years:

$500m
$502m
$503m
$504m
$503m - Oh My God the company/industry is going under!


Also of note: that's just home consoles. The handheld market (or even just the DS vs. GBA) is obscenely huge compared to last gen. And there are all those new markets within the market, like phones and Facebook, DD services and so on. The gaming business is huge and still growing. NPD's tracking is interesting, but outside of hardware sales, it's terribly incomplete.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Goddamn, 3.81m is an even more beastly number in retrospect.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

But it's down from last year! The corporate world revolves around comparisons with last year. Our profits from the last 5 years:

$500m
$502m
$503m
$504m
$503m - Oh My God the company/industry is going under!


Also of note: that's just home consoles. The handheld market (or even just the DS vs. GBA) is obscenely huge compared to last gen. And there are all those new markets within the market, like phones and Facebook, DD services and so on. The gaming business is huge and still growing. NPD's tracking is interesting, but outside of hardware sales, it's terribly incomplete.

Great point, it seems that there are more ways to make money from devs instead of just the same 2 or 3 companies dominating. When we have competition and diversity, the game industry is at its biggest.

 

[elohel]

igns worst list to date by far