Great points!
Sure, but you could also argue that bundling is a way to buy time before doing an actual price cut.
I can see that, absolutely. However, bigger/better bundles could also be used as a substitute for price cuts for an extended period of time.
If Sony are bundling now, the logical assumption is that it's a response to flagging sales.
Indeed this is one possible scenario. There are also others. Perhaps they built too much inventory which is sitting in a warehouse somewhere, perhaps they're being proactive in fighting competition they sense, maybe there are some shipment targets for the quarter that aren't being hit and the bundles are being done to hit a bonus number. There are far more than just one assumption that could be made for the cause of new bundles coming out.
As we've seen with the Bone, bundling helps, but it's not a permanent solution.
Depends. I thought for sure we'd see $99.99 Xbox 360 hardware by holiday, but instead we're still seeing 500GB bundles at $249.99. and 4GB bundles at $179.99. For last gen hardware which absolutely show flagging sales.
The Xbox One price wasn't just dropped. Fundamental changes to the product offering were made as well. The perceived value of the MS box can be argued as being lower than that of the PS4 due to the technical limitations, market position, software offerings, or many other factors. One could easily argue that the system was overpriced (and may still be). Not sure that's the case with the PS4.
I see your point. No, bundles are not a permanent solution. But price cuts may only be done now (possibly) as a last resort. There's no coming back from a price drop. So it certainly looks to me like these guys are doing all they can to prevent that from happening as long as they can, no?
I suspect Sony are aware of this as well. Also, while losing Christmas in the US last year didn't hurt them much in the grand scheme of things, I doubt they're eager to lose it again this year if they can help it.
I don't agree with the premise, and I'm not also not certain that Sony would consider that they "lost" last holiday. They sold a ton of HW with full margin, while MS sold more consoles but with arguably lower margin due to discounting and promotion. If I'm Sony, I take that margin and am very happy given my HW velocity and don't sweat MS selling some more boxes over a couple months. I could be wrong. But I'm not sure these guys are fighting each other as much as we may think they are or would want to.
So while bundling may not guarantee imminent price cuts, I would say they're an indicator that cuts are coming sooner than later.
I think all we can assume from what we're seeing is that bundling may become even more prevalent and aggressive. 90% of HW sales in July were of bundles. Wouldn't be surprising to see similar share of bundles in holiday. Imminent is a tough word. A year from now? Sure, I can see price cuts by holiday 2016, especially depending on what happens over the next year+. But this year? Seems like the strategies are pretty clear. But I could be wrong.
Regardless, I'd say the strongest indication of imminent price cuts is probably the lack of pricing on the holiday bundles.
Perhaps... but it could also just be a case of not wanting to box oneself in a corner on pricing for units that are not coming out for weeks when you have other products already in market you're looking to move. You may be right, but I don't think that conclusion can be reached with a high level of confidence given the available information.