sixteen-bit
Member
OP post date is a total mindfuck
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Maybe a little bit of both. No software and lack of enticing hardware bundles along with the impending X
It's likely a mix of both, though far more on the "low sales were always going to happen" side.
As has been mentioned numerous times in numerous threads now, hardware sales at this point in the life cycle are driven primarily by the lowest price as well as what new games are available. It's very unlikely that brand new customers who are finally interested in buying an Xbox One in year 4 will hold off to pay twice as much for a better version of the same system they can purchase today.
We know from the leaked data that Xbox One sales in the first half of 2016 were ~1.1m. From that same data, we know that Xbox One sales saw a nice boost in the second half of the year thanks to the Xbox One S -- a boost that completely evaporated by January as sales for the first half of 2017 were down, landing at ~0.98m.
So again, from the little that was shared, Xbox One sales were already declining (and would likely be worse if the Xbox One S never released). Xbox One X should provide a similar but better boost to Xbox One sales from November through February but then it's likely that sales in general will fall right back to the downward trend they were already on, especially with heavy competition from PS4 and Switch in the first half of 2018.
If it was simply the case of XBX, then PS4 sales would be affected as well as people would rather wait for the more powerful console...except it isn't (it's up YoY)
Taliban Stan
Member
There are items with * and ** but I didn't see anything that defined what those meant.
If we're specifically talking about the August 2017 numbers...
Madden NFL 18
Grand Theft Auto V
Uncharted: The Lost Legacy
Splatoon 2*
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege
Mario Kart 8*
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered
Crash Bandicoot: N. Sane Trilogy
Overwatch**
Injustice 2
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Minecraft
For Honor
Call of Duty: Black Ops III
Agents Of Mayhem
Forza Horizon 3
Battlefield 1
NBA 2K17
UFC 2
What's the title that might have lifted Xbox? Everything I see would either lift
- only Nintendo
- only Sony
- or MS/Sony/PC as a whole (and given the sales disparity between XB1 and PS4, Sony probably sees the biggest number)
What in that lineup would have motivated someone to buy an Xbox rather than PS4 or Switch in August?
If we're specifically talking about the August 2017 numbers...
Madden NFL 18
Grand Theft Auto V
Uncharted: The Lost Legacy
Splatoon 2*
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege
Mario Kart 8*
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered
Crash Bandicoot: N. Sane Trilogy
Overwatch**
Injustice 2
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
Minecraft
For Honor
Call of Duty: Black Ops III
Agents Of Mayhem
Forza Horizon 3
Battlefield 1
NBA 2K17
UFC 2
What's the title that might have lifted Xbox? Everything I see would either lift
- only Nintendo
- only Sony
- or MS/Sony/PC as a whole (and given the sales disparity between XB1 and PS4, Sony probably sees the biggest number)
What in that lineup would have motivated someone to buy an Xbox rather than PS4 or Switch in August?
Taliban Stan
Member
Error post. Mods please delete.
LordRaptor
Member
No digital sales data was available to the NPD, so it is based solely on retail sales
If Amazon is anything indicative at all of how hardware is going atm, September could be one very weird month.
After going back to $299 (having spent a large portion of the year between $249 and $269) the PS4 slim has dropped like a stone, the XB1S seems to still be as unenticing as it has been in sales, the 1X looks to have pre sold very well but those will basically be Holiday sales counted in November and if you count the Destiny bundle and the regular model, the PS4Pro seems to have done ok for itself...
The Switch seems to have done well again, though maybe less so than in previous months, but hard to position due to stock/ 3rd party seller selling above MSRP...
Makes me wonder how things are going for Abdiel and our other retail insiders in this "lul" before the serious things start.
Kinda feels like a $50 price drop on the PS4 is coming tbh.
After going back to $299 (having spent a large portion of the year between $249 and $269) the PS4 slim has dropped like a stone, the XB1S seems to still be as unenticing as it has been in sales, the 1X looks to have pre sold very well but those will basically be Holiday sales counted in November and if you count the Destiny bundle and the regular model, the PS4Pro seems to have done ok for itself...
The Switch seems to have done well again, though maybe less so than in previous months, but hard to position due to stock/ 3rd party seller selling above MSRP...
Makes me wonder how things are going for Abdiel and our other retail insiders in this "lul" before the serious things start.
Kinda feels like a $50 price drop on the PS4 is coming tbh.
MatPiscatella
Member
To the Xbox One question... baseline demand changes can be explained by two things from the data I look at. First, exclusive content is having an impact, explains a big chunk of the performance change. The other thing the data suggests is that the early announce of One X may be slowing sales a bit over the summer.
As to which is having more impact... tough to say.
In units.
Spend is down on all platforms except for Switch (obviously) and Plug N Play devices like the NES Classic.
As LordRaptor mentions, it's retail only.
And note that in the rankings Minecraft sales on Switch aren't counted since it's digital only, as will be the case with Minecraft 3DS.
If you tack on reasonable assumptions for the digital content that's missed, you can make a case for YoY content growth to be in the high single-digit to teen percentage, perhaps even a bit higher.
As to which is having more impact... tough to say.
In units.
Spend is down on all platforms except for Switch (obviously) and Plug N Play devices like the NES Classic.
As LordRaptor mentions, it's retail only.
And note that in the rankings Minecraft sales on Switch aren't counted since it's digital only, as will be the case with Minecraft 3DS.
If you tack on reasonable assumptions for the digital content that's missed, you can make a case for YoY content growth to be in the high single-digit to teen percentage, perhaps even a bit higher.
Thanks as always Matt! I'd be very curious to know that if Xbox One sales are partially slowing from Xbox One X, is the audience here people who already own an PS4 or Switch or if the Xbox would be their first console this generation. I can see individuals who already own another console who may have wanted to purchase an Xbox as a second (or third) console holding off on a purchase but I'm far less inclined to see a customer new to the generation altogether holding off on a purchase for the Xbox One X.
MatPiscatella
Member
Good questions. I'm of the mind that Sony was right in saying who the Pro was targeted at, and thinking the same kind of target will be the case for One X.
This late in the cycle, people that are coming into the generation as new customers are, by definition, late majority buyers (Moore's definition from Crossing the Chasm, which is essential reading for fans of console/tech sales imo). These folks are more price oriented than anything, and they're far more likely to choose a One S or Slim model than come in at a higher priced iterative model designed for the more Core audience that was likely in on this gen very early.
Welfare
Member
Xbox has had nothing this year to boost sales or even notable hardware pricing events. 2017 is the truest form of Xbox waiting for the holidays.
YoY with 2016, XB1 managed to have some increases in January, March, and May, but every month they are down from had massive price drops to boost sales. March and April 2016 had the $249 price cut, and June and July had severe price cuts in the lead up to the One S.
XB1 has been selling on the equivalent of hot air. It being an Xbox, it being cheap, and it coming with Minecraft/Battlefield 1.
YoY with 2016, XB1 managed to have some increases in January, March, and May, but every month they are down from had massive price drops to boost sales. March and April 2016 had the $249 price cut, and June and July had severe price cuts in the lead up to the One S.
XB1 has been selling on the equivalent of hot air. It being an Xbox, it being cheap, and it coming with Minecraft/Battlefield 1.
goldenpp72
Member
It probably cost like 1/10th to make, so clearly they intended it to sell 20 million units.
ethomaz
Banned
That is what matter for hardware (and software IMO) because you increase userbase to spend more on subscriptions and software.
Spend is down most because the lower avg. price of the consoles compared with last year, no?
MatPiscatella
Member
Sure, Spend = Units * Price, so if Units are up, but spend is down, then pricing has to be down.
Everything matters.
Humdinger
Gold Member
Thank you for putting all that together. I'm glad someone took the time and trouble. Appreciate it.
ethomaz
Banned
We dont know the numbers but...
US? No... XB1 is ahead 360.
WW? Yes... 360 is ahead XB1.
Edit - You edited
hanspampel
Banned
sorry Matt to annoy you, but i have another important question:
how are different game SKUs tracked, that release in a different reporting period
the $100 Forza Motorsport 7 Ultimate Edition releases 29th September in the September tracking period,
while the $60 Standard Edition is 3rd October in the October tracking period
(afaik this is the first time ever happening. we had early access SKUs before, but not in a different tracking period)
the UK charts for example track the sales, but postpone the counting for the regular release week
in Germany when retailers break street dates, we see games even charting a week before the official release data
so how does the NPD handle this?
how are different game SKUs tracked, that release in a different reporting period
the $100 Forza Motorsport 7 Ultimate Edition releases 29th September in the September tracking period,
while the $60 Standard Edition is 3rd October in the October tracking period
(afaik this is the first time ever happening. we had early access SKUs before, but not in a different tracking period)
the UK charts for example track the sales, but postpone the counting for the regular release week
in Germany when retailers break street dates, we see games even charting a week before the official release data
so how does the NPD handle this?
MatPiscatella
Member
Thanks for the heads up Hanspampel. This hadn't popped up on my radar until your post.
Well, sales are tracked based on SKU release. Given those dates, Ultimate would be in Sept, the others in Oct.
Well, sales are tracked based on SKU release. Given those dates, Ultimate would be in Sept, the others in Oct.
Frankfurter
Member
Thanks for the post! Just one minor thing: you might wanna double check Xbox Ones YoY performance. It's impossible for it to be down by more than 100% - unless it actually sold negative numbers. For example selling 100k in Aug 2017 while selling 1 million units in Aug 2016 would result in the YoY comparison being -90%.
MatPiscatella
Member
Data suggests to me that it's clearly carving out its own market and growing the pie.
hanspampel
Banned
thanks. important to know
will be interesting to see, if the game manages to chart in September with only the $100 SKU counting for 2 days
that number should be 57.8%
maybe some excel formula miscalculation
Ps4 is up 18.8 YoY for August*
*based on leaked NPD sales and GAF crunching numbers via prediction results
I've quoted the answer from Liabe's post on the previous page. Short answer: PS4 is up, at least in NA, so Switch seems to be tapping into a different market and not cutting into PS4 sales.
MatPiscatella
Member
Or XBO for that matter. There are other factors that more easily explain what's going on there too.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Seems like Nintendo's blue ocean strategy works out, for now.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
Again, you mean. Wii did the same thing. For a while at least.
Humdinger
Gold Member
We don't know the numbers but...
US? No... XB1 is ahead 360.
WW? Yes... 360 is ahead XB1.
Edit - You edited
Thanks for the correction.
5 years is quite awhile.
Absolutely. I only mentioned PS4 specifically because I was responding to another post.
CharminUltra
Member
Pre-ordered the One X over the weekend. Hope it does well, but whatever happens at the very least I'll have a 4K player ready for my new TV early next year.
ethomaz
Banned
Well in 2010 Wii was already dead in sales terms.
More like 3-4 years... btw these 3-4 years are what Wii did record breaking performance... after that it dropped so hard that it lifetime sales are not something to grab about.
Is it really a blue ocean though? What untapped new market are they reaching?
One market they could be hitting are people who only buy handhelds. Bringing in a new group that generally avoid consoles would cause an increase without lowering PS4 or XBO. I wonder if some of those customers will pick up an PS4/XBO that they would have avoided before because they enjoy the tv mode for the Switch.
So they may not be bringing in a brand new gaming audience but instead bringing handheld numbers into the console numbers. NPD specifically categorizes the Switch as a console and not a handheld.
LordRaptor
Member
Theres pretty strong evidence that there is a large unserved family market that neither Sony nor MS seem too concerned with catering to.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I'd argue the other way around: If they tapped into a red ocean with a strong product, all the other products on that very market would have taken a dent by now. The XBOX has, of course, seen a decline, but as Matt pointed out there are other reasons which perfectly explain that development.
Frankly, of course Switch impacts both PS4 and XBOX, but to a much lesser degree than at least I expected.
MastaKilla
Member
Every month, i come into these threads, see Rainbow Six Siege still doing great and think to myself... Lord, please let Sony see the hope for SOCOM within the very real tactical shooter market on consoles. I'll be back next month then.
KillerMan91
Member
No it wasn't? Wii still sold huge amounts during 2010 holidays in US. 1.27 million in november and 2.36 million in december. For whole year it still moved over 7 million units in US during 2010. Even in 2011 it still sold close to 5 million for a year (not that much less than PS4 last year). 2012 was when it died.
hanspampel
Banned
in Japan Xbox One sales are already over 1 million units behind the 360 to date, or down 93% over the previous generation.
just for some perspective, why Xbox One is still ahead in the US, but most likely down world wide.
and Xbox One will stay ahead of 360 in the US for at least another year, because until 2010 the Xbox 360 really didn't sell gangbusters
yeah Wii was still the best selling console in 2010 with over 7 million units sold
that only changed in 2011 with X360 overtaking it
edit: and only 3 consoles ever sold more units than the Wii in 2010 for exactly just one year each
the Xbox 360 in 2011, the Ps2 in 2002 and the Ps1 in 1998
Wii sold over 7m in the US in 2010. If that's dead then PS4 was never alive.
MatPiscatella
Member
We have digital data going back to Jan 2012.
What kind of breakdown are you talking about.
The 2017 ESA Essential Facts document has a breakdown. 74% of all content sales in 2016 were digital, but that includes Console, PC, Mobile, Subscriptions, add on content, etc etc.
ethomaz
Banned
Now look at previous holidays... 3 million in holidays? Pretty much dead.
KillerMan91
Member
You have very weird definition of dead. Is PS4 currently dead as it will sell less this year in US than Wii did in 2010? Yes Wii was already in decline in 2010 but sure as hell wasn't dead.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Twig and Berries
Member
This is just sad
hanspampel
Banned
Wii sold
2m in 2007
4m in 2008
5m in 2009
3m in 2010
2m in 2011
1m in 2012
and you call 3 million dead already?
btw: the peak Ps3 year was 4.5 million
that is exactly what the Wii sold in 2011 a full year after the console was already dead
Primethius
Banned
You mean decline not dead.