Support NeoGAF

[Version 3.0]

yeah, but sales don't scale in a linear fashion with userbase.

look at the game numbers last year, when the 360's userbase was comparable to the PS3's now.

you'll see what i'm talking about...

That's right. Or, on a larger scale: systems with a small userbase (2-5 million) can and do have million-selling games. When those same systems reach 50 or 100 million, they don't still have games reaching that percentage of the base. The PS2 has no 50 million-selling games, nor even 20-million. A larger base means broader sales more so than deeper sales.

The little bit of analysis we can do with the limited software numbers we get is likely to be misleading.

 

[Zzoram]

No, the DS didn't break the PS2's Dec 2002 record. It fell short by a bit over 200k.

I suspect that 2008 will be an even better year for the DS if they drop the price a bit or release a new revision/colours. The DS Lite was very supply constrained this holiday, I saw angry parents yelling at teenage cashiers because they couldn't find a DS anywhere :lol

 

[Zzoram]

yeah, but sales don't scale in a linear fashion with userbase.

look at the game numbers last year, when the 360's userbase was comparable to the PS3's now.

you'll see what i'm talking about...

360 had CoD2, Dead Rising, GRAW, Oblivion, GEARS (did PGR3 do it? it seems likely) sell 1+million in the Nov-Nov period of it's first year. PS3 had Resistance and Motorstorm do that. If we look at 1yr+2 months, the PS3 adds CoD4 and AC, while 360 adds Rainbow 6 Vegas, CoD3, Lost Planet. The PS3 is behind in million sellers, but not too dramatically in the slightly more than 1 year comparison. However, the 360's current tally of million sellers is at ~30 and the PS3 is still under 10, so it needs to sell 20 million+ games in 2008 to keep pace.

 

[Liabe Brave]

yeah, but sales don't scale in a linear fashion with userbase.

look at the game numbers last year, when the 360's userbase was comparable to the PS3's now.

you'll see what i'm talking about...

I think you're arguing against something I didn't say. Of course attach rates go down the more popular hardware is; very high attach rates are typically the sign of a weak platform, not a strong one. All I was refuting was the contention that the PS3 in addition to selling little hardware, is also not seeing this sort of unhealthily higher attach rate. It is.

And not out of line with what the 360 showed last year, either. The top-selling game in December last year was Gears, at 815k. The only other 360 title in the top 10 was COD3, at 410k. At the time, the 360 had a user base of 4.5 million, giving those two titles monthly attach rates of 18% and 9% respectively.

December 2007 saw PS3 COD4 at 522k and PS3 Assassin's Creed at ~380k (if I recall correctly), on a userbase of 3.2 million. That gives those two titles monthly attach rates of 16% and 12% respectively. So, the current big titles on PS3 can have higher attach rates than the current big titles on 360, and comparable attach rates to the big titles of 360's 2006 holiday. That's all I was saying.

 

[ziran]

Did we get Canadian NPD numbers yet?

As far as I'm aware this is the only info for Canada, though I might have missed it in all the drone in this thread:

CTV - Canadian video game sales hit a record $1.5 billion

- Gaming Industry $1.5 bn, up 56% from last year
- Nintendo has 10 of the top 20 best selling games of 2007, 360 - 6, PS2 - 4
- Top selling games of 2007 (6-10 assumed from the wording of the article):

1. [WII] Wii Play
2. [360] Halo 3
3. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy
4. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond
5. [PS2] Guitar Hero 3
6. [360] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
7. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros.
8. [360] Guitar Hero 2
9. [WII] Mario Party 8
10. [NDS] Brain Age 2

12. [360] Assassin's Creed

14 & 17 NHL 08

- Top selling game for Dec was Super Mario Galaxy

 

[jarrod]

Brawl.

I'd say Brawl's 2nd tier... it's like Zelda, MGS or Gears, a solid 5m+ seller but not quite in league with 10m+ sellers like Halo, GTA, Mario or Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc.

 

[sphinx]

I'd say Brawl's 2nd tier... it's like Zelda, MGS or Gears, a solid 5m+ seller but not quite in league with 10m+ sellers like Halo, GTA, Mario or Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc.

I think that will change with Brawl.

This is the first time in history that a Smash Bros game will appear on a winning nintendo system. Given how "cool" is to like nintendo these days, word of mouth could turn SSB into a 10+ million series.

The game looks so incredibly fantastic, I think there is a chance SSBB will be the very game that decides this generation ( or put the final nail in the coffin, however you like it). I hope that it does good at least, I think it deserves it. Seldom have I seen so much effort put into a game.

 

[felipeko]

This time SSBB will have a big appeal to europeans...

 

[jarrod]

I think Brawl's going to be limited by genre though... I mean, even the mighty SF2 never cracked 10m across platforms. I'm not even sure it'll pass Melee honestly, which had must-have-launch-syndrome in it's favor.... I guess we'll see though. Look what DS did for AC after all...

 

[Liabe Brave]

I'd say Brawl's 2nd tier... it's like Zelda, MGS or Gears, a solid 5m+ seller but not quite in league with 10m+ sellers like Halo, GTA, Mario or Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc.

For many of the same reasons as sphinx, I think it could be a 10m seller if released later in Wii's lifespan. I do agree that as is, it will be a monster but 8-digit sales might not happen (or may come only after very long legs).

One you didn't mention: Gran Turismo has historically run in the stratosphere with Halo/GTA3/Mario*, though the PS3's slow hardware sales means this iteration that preeminence will be totally obscured by a low number of absolute units moved.

*I said "GTA3" specifically, because I'm secretly unconvinced that this go round will be just as big a blockbuster. But gut feeling is never something to trust much.

 

[The Faceless Master]

360 had CoD2, Dead Rising, GRAW, Oblivion, GEARS (did PGR3 do it? it seems likely) sell 1+million in the Nov-Nov period of it's first year. PS3 had Resistance and Motorstorm do that. If we look at 1yr+2 months, the PS3 adds CoD4 and AC, while 360 adds Rainbow 6 Vegas, CoD3, Lost Planet. The PS3 is behind in million sellers, but not too dramatically in the slightly more than 1 year comparison. However, the 360's current tally of million sellers is at ~30 and the PS3 is still under 10, so it needs to sell 20 million+ games in 2008 to keep pace.

5(6):2 and 8(9):4 = keeping pace....

I think you're arguing against something I didn't say. Of course attach rates go down the more popular hardware is; very high attach rates are typically the sign of a weak platform, not a strong one. All I was refuting was the contention that the PS3 in addition to selling little hardware, is also not seeing this sort of unhealthily higher attach rate. It is.

And not out of line with what the 360 showed last year, either. The top-selling game in December last year was Gears, at 815k. The only other 360 title in the top 10 was COD3, at 410k. At the time, the 360 had a user base of 4.5 million, giving those two titles monthly attach rates of 18% and 9% respectively.

December 2007 saw PS3 COD4 at 522k and PS3 Assassin's Creed at ~380k (if I recall correctly), on a userbase of 3.2 million. That gives those two titles monthly attach rates of 16% and 12% respectively. So, the current big titles on PS3 can have higher attach rates than the current big titles on 360, and comparable attach rates to the big titles of 360's 2006 holiday. That's all I was saying.

so basically, 18% < 16%

 

[jarrod]

For many of the same reasons as sphinx, I think it could be a 10m seller if released later in Wii's lifespan. I do agree that as is, it will be a monster but 8-digit sales might not happen (or may come only after very long legs).

One you didn't mention: Gran Turismo has historically run in the stratosphere with Halo/GTA3/Mario*, though the PS3's slow hardware sales means this iteration that preeminence will be totally obscured by a low number of absolute units moved.

*I said "GTA3" specifically, because I'm secretly unconvinced that this go round will be just as big a blockbuster. But gut feeling is never something to trust much.

Yeah, GT's already gone down a notch with GT4, and PS3 isn't going to reverse that. MGS and FF will see noted drops too unless they have the foresight to migrate multiplatform, same as every PS3 exclusive. Call it Gamecube syndrome.

The 10m+ safe bet brands this gen are Halo, GTA, Mario and Wii Whatever. Expand to handhelds and you get quite a few more (Pokemon, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Brain-Age, etc).

 

[donny2112]

Explain how 1.2 fricken million is a disappointment for one month of sales in a single region. Because right now you make no sense

Because more was expected of it. I wasn't expecting PS2 levels, but with November being 260K better in 2007 vs. 2006, I expected more than a 100K increase for December. However as I said, it is likely due to the reported spot-shortages of the Premium system (i.e. the one most would want) in the U.S. over the last couple of months.

 

[Psychotext]

Because more was expected of it. I wasn't expecting PS2 levels, but with November being 260K better in 2007 vs. 2006, I expected more than a 100K increase for December.

As a sales ager you should know exactly why November numbers were higher this year...

 

[J-Rzez]

What title on any other system will be able to match "Halo 3's fire power"?

Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 potentially may sell kinda on scale with install base, all depending on how the media outlets moods, reviewer appreciation packages, and advertising dollars go. Both will get a lot of hype no doubt, and Resistance 2 will sell because seemingly a lot of Resistance player are incredibly happy with their experience. GT5 can potentially sell to scale as well.

On the Wii, Brawl will sell like nobodies business, though they have a userbase that can be more similar to the 360's installed, I don't think it'll sell like Halo.

Halo is just a freak of nature in the videogame world, and nothing will probably sell like it these days.

 

[donny2112]

As a sales ager you should know exactly why November numbers were higher this year...

Halo 3 and price drop residuals. You were probably going for the extra week of Christmas sales/shifted week from December to November, though. Last year, Microsoft more than doubled November in December. This year it only went up ~65%. Even with the shifted week, that's lower than I expected.

 

[Psychotext]

Halo 3 and price drop residuals. You were probably going for the extra week of Christmas sales/shifted week from December to November, though. Last year, Microsoft more than doubled November in December. This year it only went up ~65%. Even with the shifted week, that's lower than I expected.

Actually that's pretty much exactly it. =)

Like I said in the prediction thread, they could have easily done another couple of hundred k with the right stock... which would have put them in line with my predictions at least. :lol

 

[donny2112]

Actual

Estimated

 

[hauton]

The PS3 trolling in this topic is fantastically delicious.

I'm not saying it'll rebound and race the Wii for 1st, but the rampant dismissal in this topic is plain stupid.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Actually that's pretty much exactly it. =)

Like I said in the prediction thread, they could have easily done another couple of hundred k with the right stock... which would have put them in line with my predictions at least. :lol

Yup. It's kind of ironic that after stuffing the channel to high heaven last year they subsequently put out four SKUs this holiday and got the mix wrong, resulting in shortages (of the ones people actually wanted). It presents another good argument that MS needs to simplify their SKU situation - they have shown they can't manage it effectively and it cost them this December. How much we can't tell, but there was definitely an impact.

 

[Tmac]

That's right. Or, on a larger scale: systems with a small userbase (2-5 million) can and do have million-selling games. When those same systems reach 50 or 100 million, they don't still have games reaching that percentage of the base. The PS2 has no 50 million-selling games, nor even 20-million. A larger base means broader sales more so than deeper sales.

The little bit of analysis we can do with the limited software numbers we get is likely to be misleading.

Just to give an example. I dont remember which year it happened (probably 2005-2006) but on weekly media create numbers we had almost nintendo only titles on TOP. Specially Nintendo DS.

When they released annual numbers, despite not having a lot of titles on top 50, the PS2 was the console which sold more games, and it outsold the other consoles by a big margin.

Why? How? Thats exactly what you saied, when a console "matures" you have a much broader audience with different tastes and buying the same games on different periods, not so much in a rush, like happens to new consoles on the market.

 

[cilonen]

Chart-gasm

Nice work. 360's year in NA would have really sucked without December, good job from MS pulling sales back there but 2007 total sales have to be a disappointment for them, especially as your last chart shows. In your console's biggest year with it's biggest software hitting, great press support and loads of gamer goodwill it can only shift 4.6 million units in it's strongest market. That's a disappointment.

A similar plot to your last one for the US + NA data (i.e. no estimated figures) looks like it would probably come out almost dead even 360 / PS3.

PS3 software sales are just horrible.

DS is an absolute monster. If DQ9 is a success (almost a lock), I wouldn't be surprised to see a main-series, numbered Final Fantasy go to DS.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Yup. It's kind of ironic that after stuffing the channel to high heaven last year they subsequently put out four SKUs this holiday and got the mix wrong, resulting in shortages (of the ones people actually wanted). It presents another good argument that MS needs to simplify their SKU situation - they have shown they can't manage it effectively and it cost them this December. How much we can't tell, but there was definitely an impact.

I agree, MS need to go back to a simplified 2 SKU solution. They either need to dump the Arcade or give the Premium a 120gb hdd and make the Elite obsolete (just produce the Premium in two colours, bundle the HDMI cable with it)

If MS can take anything from US sales this Christmas, its that people do not want the neutered console. Or a console in pea-green.

 

[Oblivion]

Halo is just a freak of nature in the videogame world, and nothing will probably sell like it these days.

Halo's a great seller, but it's not at the top even on consoles. All the GTAs, GT3, a bunch of DS games sold (and some are still selling) better than Halo. Course, Halo 3 may go to 10 million when all is said and done anyway.

I'd say Brawl's 2nd tier... it's like Zelda, MGS or Gears, a solid 5m+ seller but not quite in league with 10m+ sellers like Halo, GTA, Mario or Wii Sports/Play/Fit/etc.

Really? I dunno, jarrod. It's one thing to assume that it may not sell as well as SMG (we don't know yet of course) but considering currently, SSBM was the current best selling Nintendo console title, we can't in any way say it's merely 2nd tier.

 

[pr0cs]

If MS can take anything from US sales this Christmas, its that people do not want the neutered console. Or a console in pea-green.

I'll agree with the green console comment but I think the arcade would have done better if it was seriously cheaper than the premium.
Microsoft needs to figure out a way to make the Arcade model more attractive, it's what the Core model should have been but the price difference still isn't great enough.

 

[Leonsito]

I think that I can sum up last night with this:

 

[Liabe Brave]

5(6):2 and 8(9):4 = keeping pace....

PS3 has three-quarters the 360's userbase at this same time in its life, so yes.

so basically, 18% < 16%

And basically 12% > 9%. And by a larger margin, too! OMG, PS3 is dominating 360!!!

Please try to pay attention to the actual argument, rather than just randomly repeating numbers.

 

[Jokeropia]

Still no DS games in the top 10. I guess we can't blame third party developers for not making quality games for it.

Both of these statements are incorrent. (There is a DS game in the top ten despite no recent blockbuster release, and third parties are making lots of awesome DS games.)

 

[Hunter D]

Dudes are really spinning hard in this thread. Under a million sales in December for a sony branded console is good now!?!

 

[Fuzzy]

Dudes are really spinning hard in this thread. Under a million sales in December for a sony branded console is good now!?!

Maybe they'll settle down if we just nod politely and back away.

 

[jarrod]

Halo's a great seller, but it's not at the top even on consoles. All the GTAs, GT3, a bunch of DS games sold (and some are still selling) better than Halo. Course, Halo 3 may go to 10 million when all is said and done anyway.

It's going to pass 10m easy. Unlike GT5.

Really? I dunno, jarrod. It's one thing to assume that it may not sell as well as SMG (we don't know yet of course) but considering currently, SSBM was the current best selling Nintendo console title, we can't in any way say it's merely 2nd tier.

Eh, it was top tier on a console where basically all Nintendo's other top brands basically halved from the previous gen for various reasons. Melee also had a near launch advantage, which is pretty huge... I dunno, Brawl may move units like no Smash Bros. before, but I think the design limits it to a degree. Fighters just don't move 10m+, never have and probably never will.

 

[The Faceless Master]

PS3 has three-quarters the 360's userbase at this same time in its life, so yes.

not the same margin

And basically 12% > 9%. And by a larger margin, too! OMG, PS3 is dominating 360!!!

Please try to pay attention to the actual argument, rather than just randomly repeating numbers.

you used two games for the comparison, i used one.

why didn't you use more or less than two? were the numbers less favorable?

i'm paying attention... to your spin...

 

[Liabe Brave]

not the same margin

you used two games for the comparison, i used one.

why didn't you use more or less than two? were the numbers less favorable?

I used two games because, as I said in my post, the 360 only had two games chart (and I couldn't find the December 2006 NPD thread for more). If you have more 12/06 360 numbers, provide them and I'll compare to the other 12/07 PS3 numbers we have in this thread. Given that the games I did use would've by necessity had the highest attach rates for the 360, that they match up to the two highest for PS3 indicates how similarly software is performing on a comparative basis (with PS3 absolute numbers lower because hardware hasn't sold as fast).

i'm paying attention... to your spin...

I'm trying not to pay attention to your ridiculous system wars paranoia, but you're making it difficult. Will this help? "I hereby solemnly swear that PS3 hardware sales had been bad all year and were bad last month. In the U.S., PS3 software consistently sells many fewer units than 360 versions of the same software. Amen." I really do seriously believe all that (which is good, because it's all true.)

 

[Chumly]

Some more facts and figures.

121 titles over 100k
Current Gen Sales = $1.876B
Last Gen Sales (PS2, GBA, Xbox, GCN) = $495M
PS2 SW sales "only down" 22% YOY, which is extremely strong given the point in the lifecycle and the release schedule.

Can we get the breakdown of the platforms for the 121 titles over 100k?

 

[seattle6418]

It's going to pass 10m easy. Unlike GT5.

all GT games have sold at least 10 million units WW. the only difference is that because of bundles and momentum, GT3 sold close to 15 million.

the trend is, sales declining in NA and Japan, but growing a lot in europe, which is sony's and GT's biggest market.

with the current userbase it's tough to seel that number, but we have to wait and see how many PS3 we will have in mid 2009 when the game finally launches. (delays...)

people always knock on GT, and i don't know why. if GT is not at the top of triple A titles, then i don't know which title is.

 

[oneHeero]

Can we get the breakdown of the platforms for the 121 titles over 100k?

More fuel for the fire, amirite?

 

[goldenpp72]

Im pretty sure gt4 didn't break 10 million.

 

[Version 3.0]

Just to give an example. I dont remember which year it happened (probably 2005-2006) but on weekly media create numbers we had almost nintendo only titles on TOP. Specially Nintendo DS.

When they released annual numbers, despite not having a lot of titles on top 50, the PS2 was the console which sold more games, and it outsold the other consoles by a big margin.

Why? How? Thats exactly what you saied, when a console "matures" you have a much broader audience with different tastes and buying the same games on different periods, not so much in a rush, like happens to new consoles on the market.

Exactly right (although I think the PS2 did well in top 50 lists). I made a thread about this, but got largely shouted down because I used Halo 3 as an example (and had a poorly worded title), saying that its success might be indicative of a narrow 360 demographic. But that's the truth. On a console with a healthy, varied demographic, you don't get 50% attach rates on games. Even 20% is extremely unlikely. And none of the 3 current systems are quite there yet, in my view. It's tough to say, though, without seeing more software sales.

 

[AdventureRacing]

all GT games have sold at least 10 million units WW. the only difference is that because of bundles and momentum, GT3 sold close to 15 million.

the trend is, sales declining in NA and Japan, but growing a lot in europe, which is sony's and GT's biggest market.

with the current userbase it's tough to seel that number, but we have to wait and see how many PS3 we will have in mid 2009 when the game finally launches. (delays...)

people always knock on GT, and i don't know why. if GT is not at the top of triple A titles, then i don't know which title is.

Well we will have to wait and see how GT sells when it's on the PS3. It's alot easier to sell like that on the PS1 and PS2 than it is on the PS3.

Also im not really sure what your talking about in that last sentence. GT has always been praised an incredible amount cause they are all great games.

Halo's a great seller, but it's not at the top even on consoles. All the GTAs, GT3, a bunch of DS games sold (and some are still selling) better than Halo. Course, Halo 3 may go to 10 million when all is said and done anyway.

Perhaps if you have a quick look at which platform each game is on you might understand why halo 3 will struggle to match those other games.

 

[DiddyBop]

i just had to do another double take at those call of duty 4 numbers. positive word of mouth and online is what will continue to push that game to near halo 3 levels. its only 1 mill and change behind halo 3 in NA. halo's sales seemed to have been incredibly front loaded. i can see COD4 doing another 500k in january with halo pushing 300k.

SSBB will be a huge,huge hit. anyone who doubts that is being ignorant. it will sell at least 3-4 million in NA.

 

[jman2050]

I think that I can sum up last night with this:

Good call on the Spanish :lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Um, if you include the $250 Wii in the war, of course it won.

At 250 and 400, PS3 is now 60% more than Wii; X360 is less. When it was $100 GCN vs $180 PS2/Xbox, they were 80% more expensive and still kicked the shit out of it.

Here are the comparable 'second December' sales for the systems:

[PS2]1971k
[Wii]1350k
[360]1260k
[XBX]1033k
[PS3]798k
[GCN]619k

That X360 number is from this year, its third December. Its second was 1100K.

 

[chespace]

More fuel for the fire, amirite?

We didn't start the fire, but it's so very warm.

 

[AniHawk]

Hey guys. Just got back from Catalina Island. So how are things here? Good?

 

[Lobster]

Can we have sales on Lego Star Wars?

Apparently it did very well on Wii.

edit: Also Zack and Wiki.

Please?

If not..

O.K.

 

[Finn]

Can we have sales on Lego Star Wars?

Apparently it did very well on Wii.

edit: Also Zack and Wiki.

Please?

If not..

O.K.

Seconded.

Actually, not so much Z&W because it'll just depress me. I'm down for some Lego Star Wars Wii numbers, though.

 

[Jive Turkey]

Hey guys. Just got back from Catalina Island. So how are things here? Good?

Grab your golf cart and head back to Avalon. All the fun here seems to be over.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Grab your golf cart and head back to Avalon. All the fun here seems to be over.

Yeah, but it was fun while it lasted.

Looking at those numbers I'm ready for my month ban. I never once thought the 360 would surpass the Wii in total LTD last year, but someone did, and he got ganged up on. Being chivalrous and slightly insulting I took up his side.

I'm ready for the ban whenever the mods are ready to enforce it. Still, I love this place and will still be reading. So GAFer's... make it an interesting month for me please. Until I return.

Oh, and Amirox I think I found me some pot, so no need for you to keep looking or anything.

 

[Lobster]

From IGN Matt: Wii software > 360 software

tie ratio: 10 games to every console sold.

 

[Odysseus]

From IGN Matt: Wii software > 360 software

tie ratio: 10 games to every console sold.

is he counting each of the five games in the wii sports pack-in? otherwise, i don't see how that's even possible.