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[grandjedi6]

So... Fire Emblem?

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Looking at just the Top 3 for each system in each month the Wii moves from 2.1 million (November) to 3 million (December) in sales, while the 360 goes from 3 million (November) to 3.1 million (December). That's a huge jump in the Wii's favor that isn't seen on the 360. If the Wii saw a similar boosts in the rest of its software sales, there shouldn't be too much doubt that it could have beaten the 360.

Interesting. I wonder, is it a sign that MS has a ceiling? They sold a good number of systems but you could characterize the 360 as a good system, not world beater. Is that enough? Probably but if that 10-1 Wii tie is true for December, and it beats 360's total games sold, than MS should start to be alarmed. They still have the big bruisers but we all know that casual games run the market. It will be weird if the market ever turns out that hardcore games do not hit the leading hardware and software leader.

 

[Benenath]

Er... but Uncharted and Unreal Tournament III?

 

[Captain Smoker]

1. WiiSports
2. WiiPlay
3. Super Mario Galaxy
4. Metroid Prime 3
5. Legend of Zelda: Twighlight Princess
6. Big Brain Academy
7. WarioWare
8. ExciteTruck
9. Super Mario Strikers
and I guess #10 can be Carnival Games.

Is this a Top10 for December or LTD Top10?


LTD Top10 for the USA looks like this:

[1.) Wii Play] (Nintendo)
2.) Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo)
3.) Mario Party 8 (Nintendo)
4.) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Nintendo)
5.) Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Activision)
6.) Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
7.) Super Paper Mario (Nintendo)
8.) Wario Ware Smooth Moves (Nintendo)
9.) Carnival Games (Global Star Software)
10.) Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Nintendo)
[11.) Rayman Raving Rabbits] (Ubisoft)

 

[D.Lo]

I think the hardcore gaming segment, including Microsoft NPD statements have done a wonderful job skewing software perception in regards to the Wii.

Exactly. Forums are full of people saying 'Nintendo's hardware sales are not a problem for MS/Sony/whoever I'm a fanboy of, because Wii owners only buy it for Wii Sports and never buy any other games' - stated as if it is a well-known fact. Even with Galaxy's colossal sales staring them in the face, and huge shelf space presence in stores making it obvious.

Microsoft has made 'attach rate' (an incorrect term) their god over the last few months, but a high tie ratio is a function of both good software sales and relatively poor hardware sales. It's a ratio that needs to be balanced, and MSes one is verging on unhealthily high for a platform with mainstream aspirations.

I'm not quick to categorize all "PS3/X360 people" in that way...just "some people" who are still coming to terms with the reality of Wii being market leader this generation in hardware as well as software now it seems.

Yes, so that's why for these people (not all, just some) Nintendo has moved from 'kiddie' to 'fad' to 'not the same market' to 'doesn't sell software' to 'only casual games sell' to 'only Nintendo games sell' and back again with the fluidity to allow exceptions to be discounted by one of these excuses at any time.

"Dominating" is a product of MS' PR machine and not a result of seeing the actual data. MS has always been quick to adjust the standards to make themselves look great (which all PR usually do). In the spring and early summer of last year, when Super Paper Mario and Mario Party 8 were the big games, MS heavily pushed how dominating their third party sales were (this is the time-frame when we first starting hear how no third party games on the rival console had made it into the top 10). August and September were obviously very good months for the system and MS was quick to boast how they made up a majority of next-gen sales. However, in November their PR switched a little, no longer claiming a majority, but just being #1. The Wii was already moving up on the 360 in November and that continued through December.

Looking at just the Top 3 for each system in each month the Wii moves from 2.1 million (November) to 3 million (December) in sales, while the 360 goes from 3 million (November) to 3.1 million (December). That's a huge jump in the Wii's favor that isn't seen on the 360. If the Wii saw a similar boosts in the rest of its software sales, there shouldn't be too much doubt that it could have beaten the 360.

Said the same basic thing a couple of pages ago with excerpts from the PR, shortly before Tabris sidetracked everything.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Exactly. Forums are full of people saying 'Nintendo's hardware sales are not a problem for MS/Sony/whoever I'm a fanboy of, because Wii owners only buy it for Wii Sports and never buy any other games' - stated as if it is a well-known fact. Even with Galaxy's colossal sales staring them in the face, and huge shelf space presence in stores making it obvious.

Microsoft has made 'attach rate' (an incorrect term) their god over the last few months, but a high tie ratio is a function of both good software sales and relatively poor hardware sales. It's a ratio that needs to be balanced, and MSes one is verging on unhealthily high for a platform with mainstream aspirations.

Yes, so that's why for these people (not all, just some) Nintendo has moved from 'kiddie' to 'fad' to 'not the same market' to 'doesn't sell software' to 'only casual games sell' to 'only Nintendo games sell' and back again with the fluidity to allow exceptions to be discounted by one of these excuses at any time.


Said the same basic thing a couple of pages ago with excerpts from the PR, shortly before Tabris sidetracked everything.

Too bad we don't get an better way of tracking software sales for the respective manufacturers besides what they report in their yearly/quarterly reports. Which is probably just a 'shipped' number (if MS stuffed the channels w/consoles, lord only knows what they did with software). Then we could track them based on months from launch and debunk/validate various claims that live off of our lack of knowledge.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Seriously people need to stop being so god dam dense. As Donny has already stated its useful to know the monthly tie ratio to know whether or not the overall ratio is going up.

It is not really "useful". Monthly tie ratio easily goes up (and down) by a huge degree with big software releases, holiday seasons, hardware shortages (exactly the case of Wii) and other factors, but it may NOT really mean a lot to the LTD tie ratio (especially when the hardware LTD is high enough). That's why you often see people talking about LTD tie ratio, but RARELY the monthly tie ratio.

 

[Stumpokapow]

LTD Top10 for the USA looks like this:

Incidentally, readers might be interested in some sales statistics. Based on my data, which represents 4.0 of the Wii's tie ratio outside Wii sports, I have the following information:
- 5 games broke a million (included WP, not including WS)
- 11 games broke 500k (including the previous 5)
- 21 games broke 250k (including the previous 11)
- 42 games broke 100k (including the previous 21)

For launch titles my data is almost entirely accurate. In fact, I have pretty complete data until February... after that is when it starts getting sort of spotty. There are some games that would be in one of those four categories that I have absolutely no data for... so this should be treated as a minimum number of games in each category.

PS3--I have data representing ~3.0 of the PS3's tie ratio:
- 0 games broke a million
- 5 broke 500k
- 20 broke 100k (including the previous 5)

My 360 data is substantially poorer because I haven't actively tried to track down 2006 data. I have comparable amounts of 2007 data and a pretty good amount of launch stuff, but I'm missing a lot of 2006 to the point that I don't feel all that comfortable conjecturing from it.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Incidentally, readers might be interested in some sales statistics. Based on my data, which represents 4.0 of the Wii's tie ratio outside Wii sports, I have the following information:
- 5 games broke a million (included WP, not including WS)

.

- 11 games broke 500k (including the previous 5)

.

- 21 games broke 250k (including the previous 11)

I have 20. ^^

WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
SUPER MARIO GALAXY
MARIO PARTY 8
THE LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS
GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ GUIT
MARIO AND SONIC AT THE OLYMPIC GAMES
SUPER PAPER MARIO
WARIO WARE: SMOOTH MOVES
CARNIVAL GAMES
RAYMAN RAVING RABBITS
METROID PRIME 3
RESIDENT EVIL 4
RED STEEL
SONIC AND THE SECRET RINGS
TIGER WOODS 07
MARIO STRIKERS: CHARGED
CALL OF DUTY 3
MADDEN NFL 08
RESIDENT EVIL: UMBRELLA CHRONICLES
EXCITE TRUCK

Whats No.21?

 

[Gazunta]

You work for Krome; aren't these numbers given to you guys?

It's not like it's something that's printed on the company newsletter. Also it's quicker to find out through here.

And hey, thanks for making me trawl through 20 pages of replies to find where "Krome" was mentioned in this thread! You've been a big help!

 

[Stumpokapow]

I have 20. ^^

Whats No.21?

Madden NFL 07, based on leaked data for months one through four and no further data after that, is above 250k.

But in retrospect, there are a few others guaranteed. the Wii Zapper sold 232k in November and obviously sold more than 18k in December, so LCT is also above 250k. MySims almost certainly broke 50k in December (if that 404k number is December only, then MySims broke 200k in December since sales are going to be >50% Wii based on what we know so far).

 

[Captain Smoker]

Madden NFL 07, based on leaked data for months one through four and no further data after that, is above 250k.

You´re right, forget about it.

But in retrospect, there are a few others guaranteed. the Wii Zapper sold 232k in November and obviously sold more than 18k in December, so LCT is also above 250k. MySims almost certainly broke 50k in December (if that 404k number is December only, then MySims broke 200k in December since sales are going to be >50% Wii based on what we know so far).

.


I wonder if Super Paper Mario will brake one day the 1.000.000 - mark in the US.


Mario & Sonic is the next millionseller, after that Smash Bros. Brawl is the next.

I wonder how many copies the game will manage in March, at amazon it´s since December in the Top10... but it´s just amazon.


Does anyone know how many units Melee sold at launch?
In Japan it sold 357.101 in first week [ http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/gc.php ]

 

[Version 3.0]

I don't find 13.5 million to be an unbelievable number for Wii software. I do find it surprising that it would be above the 360. But I've said it before: the data we get is too little to draw conclusions. Top 10's are not nearly enough to show what the market as a whole is doing.

GAF (and Microsoft) like to go on about how hardcore the 360 crowd is. If that's true, then everything but those top 10's bombed, right? If we're so hardcore, then we surely didn't buy Surf's Up or Pirates of the Caribbean, Def Jam or DDR, or even Overlord or Vampire Rain.

On the Wii side, GAF, Nintendo, and the entire media of the world just love to say how casual its audience is. So should we be surprised if the games we don't care about in here have high average per-game sales? Dancing with the Stars (a game that made me do a double-take in the store--WTF?) isn't in the top 10 lists, but I wouldn't be surprised if it and many other games I laugh at did just fine.

We don't get enough data to refute IGN's claim, period. It contradicts the assumptions we've made over the year, that's all. I've said it before: broad sales are the sign of a healthy demographic. I expect the Wii is getting there faster than the 360.

 

[Vagabundo]

So we're agreed then?

 

[Chumly]

It is not really "useful". Monthly tie ratio easily goes up (and down) by a huge degree with big software releases, holiday seasons, hardware shortages (exactly the case of Wii) and other factors, but it may NOT really mean a lot to the LTD tie ratio (especially when the hardware LTD is high enough). That's why you often see people talking about LTD tie ratio, but RARELY the monthly tie ratio.

You again completely missed the point but it doesnt suprise me. You complained that Matts data wasnt believable because he used the monthly tie ratio. I told you why you were wrong. He used it to give us an estimate on how Wii software was doing without going the Wii has officially sold 13543536 pieces of software based off of NPD data.

It doesnt matter how much you dont think monthly tie ratios dont matter. It was given out by Matt so he could give us an idea on how well Wii software was doing and its used by NPD and publishers to see whether or not the overall tie ratios for the PS3/360/Wii are going down or up.

The only reason your complaining about the monthly tie ratio is because obviously matt seemed to have touched a nerve with you on the data.

 

[Captain Smoker]

@ the 13.500.000, look:


WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY 1.400.000
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 1.080.000
WII MARIO AND SONIC: OLYMPIC GAMES 613.000
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK 500.000
WII MARIO PARTY 8 420.000
WII CARNIVAL GAMES 272.000
WII RESIDENT EVIL: THE UMBRELLA CHRONICLES 147.600
WII NIGHTS: JOURNEY OF DREAMS 60.800


That are all numbers we have, total: 4.493.400

13.500.000 - 4.493.400 = 9.006.600


These are only 8 titles, till 02.01. 227 games [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wii_games ] were released in the US.

227 - 8 = 219


==>
9.006.600 / 219 = 41.126


The avarage of the other titles is 41.126 units.


But remember, there are 121 games over 100.000 units and I´m sure a lot of Wiistuff, it´s not that unbelievable if you ask me.



But if sonycowboy could confirm, perfect.

 

[Jammy]

Guitar Hero III had to have sold more than 500,000. That's the bare minimum we could put it at. For instance, there have been reports that CoD4 on PS3 sold over 500,000, yet Guitar Hero III on Wii was the 11th best selling game of the month.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Guitar Hero III had to have sold more than 500,000. That's the bare minimum we could put it at. For instance, there have been reports that CoD4 on PS3 sold over 500,000, yet Guitar Hero III on Wii was the 11th best selling game of the month.

You´re right, COD IV sold 522.000.

522.000 < GHIII < 613.000

 

[felipeko]

So wich month we will start seeing ppl using PS3+X360 software against Wii's?

 

[LCGeek]

So wich month we will start seeing ppl using PS3+X360 software against Wii's?

I've seen people make that an argument in sales thread already.

 

[ksamedi]

So wich month we will start seeing ppl using PS3+X360 software against Wii's?

People are already doing it with the hardware, treating the 360 and PS3 the same. Ofcourse it has some truth to it, but it would be really much cheaper to make a game for the Wii than to make a game for PS3+360. Though, its just a matter of time before Wii ever surpasses both PS3 and 360 in software sales.

 

[RBH]

I really wish that we could request some additional software numbers.

It would be interesting to see the LTD's for games like Blue Dragon, Virtua Fighter 5, and Zack & Wiki just to see if they got a decent boost during the holidays after initially releasing with low sales.

It would be a nice way to keep these NPD threads lasting even longer as well.

 

[Deku]

It's a real tragedy when we don't have full NPD numbers to actually discuss this.

 

[felipeko]

People are already doing it with the hardware, treating the 360 and PS3 the same. Ofcourse it has some truth to it, but it would be really much cheaper to make a game for the Wii than to make a game for PS3+360. Though, its just a matter of time before Wii ever surpasses both PS3 and 360 in software sales.

I've seen people make that an argument in sales thread already.

Yeah, i know that. But on NPD threads people just say "X360 is a monster on software, Wii will never catch it".. Now it just happened, i believe X360 will stay ahead in the next few months, untill march/april, or whenever Wii Fit launches (believe)... But then they will have to donwplay Wii sucess someway.. 3rd party sales aren't flopping on NA, so that argument is out.. I think the only argument left will be PS3+X360 vs Wii in the software..

 

[Deku]

Yeah, i know that. But on NPD threads people just say "X360 is a monster on software, Wii will never catch it".. Now it just happened, i believe X360 will stay ahead in the next few months, untill march/april, or whenever Wii Fit launches (believe)... But then they will have to donwplay Wii sucess someway.. 3rd party sales aren't flopping on NA, so that argument is out.. I think the only argument left will be PS3+X360 vs Wii in the software..

Where was this confirmed?

 

[felipeko]

Where was this confirmed?

Matt said it... I believe him.

And if didn't happen yet, it will happen soon, even Microsoft PR points to that.

 

[Deku]

Matt said it... I believe him.

I don't. We will not something more concrete.

 

[vanguardian1]

I don't. We will not something more concrete.

Well, not that it's concrete, but wasn't it mentioned in this thread that MS re-worded their PR statement about software sales compared to previous months?

 

[sphinx]

I don't. We will not something more concrete.

just like we needed pics and media for Halo DS, amirite? :lol :lol

 

[test_account]

Were hardware numbers for Canada released?

 

[Psychotext]

Yeah, i know that. But on NPD threads people just say "X360 is a monster on software, Wii will never catch it".. Now it just happened...

Wasn't there just rather a lot of discussion on why Wii software might be particularly successful at xmas, but not during the rest of the year? Taking one data point out of the last 12 months and using it to trend with might not be the best of ideas.

 

[seattle6418]

It's a real tragedy when we don't have full NPD numbers to actually discuss this.

does anyone still have a link for the last NPD debacle where they stopped releasing info on sales and then reached an agreement with GAF? because i want to understand how much info sonycowboy can put in here... because... i just don't get it. 80% of the discussion in the NPD threads is made of things we don't know for sure.

if sonycowboy could straight out the facts of the wii selling 13,5 million software he would right?

i can't find it, but how much info can GAF have regarding NPD numbers?

 

[felipeko]

Wasn't there just rather a lot of discussion on why Wii software might be particularly successful at xmas, but not during the rest of the year? Taking one data point out of the last 12 months and using it to trend with might not be the best of ideas.

I'm not thinking only on this data point, there have been a few times where we got info that showed the ratio "Monthly SW":"HW LTD" pretty even in all systems, this month (losing maybe only to Halo month) is probably the biggest discrepancy in this ratio so far (due to that xmas theory), and next month should become normal again (Microsoft winning SW, but only in the same % of their market share), unless some big software hits.

And even without that data, someone here showed that in Microsoft PR Wii has been gaining ground in the last months, not just this one...

I don't have any number here (i wish we had, so i could be proven wrong or right), still if you really want me to dig NPD threads to find those "info", i can

 

[Dirtbag]

another month goes by and I'm getting more and more scared as a hardcore gamer. The impact of the casual gamer scares me.

 

[Dave Long]

another month goes by and I'm getting more and more scared as a hardcore games. The impact of the casual games scares me long term.

This is ridiculous. It's obvious that many developers are too stubborn to shift their development from high budget/hopeful blockbusters to Wii despite all the fiscal sense that would make for them.

 

[donny2112]

360 LTD Tie Ratio through November: 6.85
360 HW through November: 7.89 million (9.15-1.26)

360 Total Software through November: ~54.05 million

360 LTD Tie Ratio through December: 7.0 (let's say 7.04 to give Microsoft the best-case scenario)
360 HW through December: 9.15 million

360 Total Software through December: ~64.42 million

Therefore, best-case scenario for Microsoft, they sold ~10.4 million pieces of software for the 360 in December.

The question of whether the Wii sold more software than the 360 in December is now moot. The Wii did sell more software than the 360 in December. The only question left is if you think the monthly tie ratio was a full 10 or if Matt was rounding up. Any tie ratio for the Wii over 7.8 means it sold more than the 360. 10, 9, 8 ... It doesn't matter.

Questions?

 

[Of All Trades]

Yeah, i know that. But on NPD threads people just say "X360 is a monster on software, Wii will never catch it".. Now it just happened, i believe X360 will stay ahead in the next few months, untill march/april, or whenever Wii Fit launches (believe)... But then they will have to donwplay Wii sucess someway.. 3rd party sales aren't flopping on NA, so that argument is out.. I think the only argument left will be PS3+X360 vs Wii in the software..

Except some 3rd party sales ARE flopping in NA. The problem is, as Deku stated, without full NPD data (or at least a good chunk more of it) we can't tell which 3rd party games are selling "well" (which is also a definition game). A lot of the confusion from the SW sales claim is stemming from the few known sub-top10 quantities like REUC and Nights; if those games aren't the ones making up the difference, what are? Older games on sale like Red Steel? New ultra-casual games like Hannah Montana or Dance With the Stars? Did Z&W, TC2, or RRR2 suddenly get a massive sales burst from November? And why did 360 owners stop buying software (I do think it's the hardcore frontloading most software, since there was almost nothing released in December; hell, I think the only new (not used) game I bought during December was Ghost Squad)?

With the current NPD data releases we can basically only figure out certain likely truths (during the holiday season, the rest of the year is currently much easier to figure out) at the top of the sales scale, like "A X360 mega-blockbuster is very likely to be online-heavy and is likely to be a shooter" or "A Wii mega-blockbuster is very likely to be mascot-based and is likely to be geared towards casuals" or "A PS3 mega-blockbuster is very likely to not exist and is likely to be non-existant".

 

[Deku]

Questions?

The software data we have accounts for about 4 million units of software, what accounts for the other 7-9 million?

 

[AniHawk]

The software data we have accounts for about 4 million units of software, what accounts for the other 7-9 million?

That DDR game is extremely popular. Maybe that.

 

[JJConrad]

The software data we have accounts for about 4 million units of software, what accounts for the other 7-9 million?

December 2006 total software sales was about 52 million units... the Top 10 making up only 5 million of that. This year was much bigger.

Why are you having so much trouble believing these numbers?

 

[Lobster]

If I paid for NPD data (lulz), could I reveal them anonymously on GAF or would that get GAF in a fuckload of trouble for just having those numbers?

I felt like doing this in the future when having a bit of cash in my pockets..

 

[AnimeTheme]

He used it to give us an estimate on how Wii software was doing without going the Wii has officially sold 13543536 pieces of software based off of NPD data.

Official? :lol

 

[Chumly]

Official? :lol

Can you even comprehend what I said? Or are you just too stupid?

 

[starship]

If I paid for NPD data (lulz), could I reveal them anonymously on GAF or would that get GAF in a fuckload of trouble for just having those numbers?

I felt like doing this in the future when having a bit of cash in my pockets..

You can't post them here but you can always pm me the data.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Can you even comprehend what I said? Or are you just too stupid?

Let's just accept that Wii SW > 360 SW as Matt himself said so and donny2112 confirmed it with facts. But exactly how much is Wii SW outselling? We do NOT know at this point. And let's NOT try to think about getting the "official" number by simply extrapolating the 10:1 thing, because we do NOT exactly know how he calculated it or if it is really accurate at all.

The only reason people firmly believe Matt's sayings without even casting a doubt is because it fits peoples fanboy propaganda.

 

[Chumly]

Let's just accept that Wii SW > 360 SW as Matt himself said so and donny2112 confirmed it with facts. But exactly how much is Wii SW outselling? We do NOT know at this point. And let's NOT try to think about getting the "official" number by simply extrapolating the 10:1 thing, because we do NOT exactly know how he calculated it or if it is really accurate at all.

The only reason people firmly believe Matt's sayings without even casting a doubt is because it fits peoples fanboy propaganda.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Holy crap

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

You have OFFICIALLY confirmed that you fail at reading english. Nowhere in ANY of my posts did I say Wii software has sold a particular number.

 

[suaveric]

Did we ever find out in any NPD thread how Contra 4 did? I hope it sold ok

 

[Flakster99]

The only reason people firmly believe Matt's sayings without even casting a doubt is because it fits peoples fanboy propaganda.

Jeez, how the heck does Mat saying the Wii outsold the 360 software wise for a single month fit people's propaganda when he has access to said data, and has released a variety of numbers to us every.single. month.

In relation to Mat releasing numbers this month, what makes this month any different from past months. And you say some are trying to fit or believe this information to fit their own fanboy propaganda, glass houses and all that?

 

[Lobster]

Let's just accept that Wii SW > 360 SW as Matt himself said so and donny2112 confirmed it with facts. But exactly how much is Wii SW outselling? We do NOT know at this point. And let's NOT try to think about getting the "official" number by simply extrapolating the 10:1 thing, because we do NOT exactly know how he calculated it or if it is really accurate at all.

The only reason people firmly believe Matt's sayings without even casting a doubt is because it fits peoples fanboy propaganda.

People firmly believe Matt's sayings because he gets NPD data!

Jesus.

 

[AlternativeUlster]

Is this a Top10 for December or LTD Top10?

I was making shit up like I usually do. Did you know though that Godfather: Blackhand Edition has sold 500,000 units worldwide?