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NPD Sales Results For December 2016 (and the year's best selling games)
Agreed. Let's put it this way, I would be shocked if more than 1-2% of the total sales came from the Newegg/MS Store sale.
Not really. IW had more sales than any other COD title since COD4. The LE could be had for most of December for $42 if you are GCU member. As a matter a fact, the title has not sold at full price since release. A big box store has had the game on sale every week since release. Currently on sale at BB.
I could imagine a scenario where a KH3 trailer/gameplay demo plays at one of Microsoft's E3's closer to release like SE did with FFXV, with an XB1 ports announcement at the end of it.
It also pisses me off too because if Sony treated this game like it was FF7, then it would be a total game changer.
Is this really a bad thing? Xbox One and PS4 got cheaper and more people bought into the ecosystems. Seems healthy to me?
MatPiscatella
Member
Now we're talking. These are some great questions. Thanks for asking them. I'll answer what I can.
Okay, this is a pretty good one. I hadn't thought of looking at it like this, so thanks. Now, you know there are some problems with the comp. The misaligned launch years of PS3/X360 last gen make this not quite apples:apples. The other major problem is release count. In 2009, a far higher % of total titles were published physically, and there was also a much higher number of physical releases.
In Dec 2009, there were almost 600 titles available physically on PS3/X360. In comparison, only 400 titles were available physically on PS4/Xone during Dec 2016.
So it's not shocking at all to say that physical revenues are lower than they were at that time. However, overall spend can safely be considered to be significantly higher in Dec 2016 on PS4/Xone than in Dec 2009 on PS3/X360 due to digital full game downloads and DLC/MTX. However, precise figures for what that Dec 2016 total spend number aren't available. We can model and make best estimate. But regardless of the range of error one uses, the comp looks like a positive one.
Hoping to be able to expand these top 10 lists in the future, yes. Unfortunately, can't do that today.
Like in the answer above, comparing physical tie ratios across the generations isn't really an appropriate exercise (although it is a fun one) given the advent of digital full game downloads. In addition, we have digital promotion happening that is broader and deeper than in past years, making a unit tie ratio comparison across generations even more wonky. Is a $60 physical game unit worth the same as a $3 digital unit bought on promotion? Not really. The only way one could do the exercise would be to assume that ASPs across physical and digital balance out, and I'm not certain the data suggests we can do that.
Well, I'm sure you're aware that PSN and XBL full game download revenues are included for participating publishers. So, could you expand on the question a bit?
Actively pursuing.
Okay, this is a pretty good one. I hadn't thought of looking at it like this, so thanks. Now, you know there are some problems with the comp. The misaligned launch years of PS3/X360 last gen make this not quite apples:apples. The other major problem is release count. In 2009, a far higher % of total titles were published physically, and there was also a much higher number of physical releases.
In Dec 2009, there were almost 600 titles available physically on PS3/X360. In comparison, only 400 titles were available physically on PS4/Xone during Dec 2016.
So it's not shocking at all to say that physical revenues are lower than they were at that time. However, overall spend can safely be considered to be significantly higher in Dec 2016 on PS4/Xone than in Dec 2009 on PS3/X360 due to digital full game downloads and DLC/MTX. However, precise figures for what that Dec 2016 total spend number aren't available. We can model and make best estimate. But regardless of the range of error one uses, the comp looks like a positive one.
Hoping to be able to expand these top 10 lists in the future, yes. Unfortunately, can't do that today.
Like in the answer above, comparing physical tie ratios across the generations isn't really an appropriate exercise (although it is a fun one) given the advent of digital full game downloads. In addition, we have digital promotion happening that is broader and deeper than in past years, making a unit tie ratio comparison across generations even more wonky. Is a $60 physical game unit worth the same as a $3 digital unit bought on promotion? Not really. The only way one could do the exercise would be to assume that ASPs across physical and digital balance out, and I'm not certain the data suggests we can do that.
Well, I'm sure you're aware that PSN and XBL full game download revenues are included for participating publishers. So, could you expand on the question a bit?
Actively pursuing.
LastMinuteHero
Member
I feel like we've seen explanation from others so many times now; people citing sales split and all that and that nomura interview toolol.
Valkyria Revolution is coming to XB1. We'll see how well that does.
Just to clarify, in this yearly and then monthly sales reports, the full game digital downloads from PSN store and XBL store are included?
So if I asked you for Gears 4 numbers for the year, that'd include digital downloads?
If so, no I wasn't aware of that.
Is not that the same for all those multiplatform games?
Can you tell us if Dragon Quest Builders performed better than DQH and DQVII3DS? There seemed to be a bit more buzz surrounding it when it launched compared to the other two, not to mention that it placed on various GOTY lists. I'm wondering if the positive word-of-mouth translated into sales this time around. Thank you!
The SKU argument is a moot point as LE and CE versions of games also have different SKUs. Maybe NPDMat can shine some light as to why they are tracked separately.
MatPiscatella
Member
Yep.
Guess we gotta work on our messaging. Sorry for making that assumption.
Unfortunately, it's a group of participating publishers at this time, so you won't find Gears as Microsoft is not a participating publisher.
Right now Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, Capcom, Deep Silver, EA, Square Enix, Take 2 Interactive, Ubisoft and WB Games participate. So games from these publishers do include full game download sales on STEAM, PSN and XBL.
Sorry, but I can't get into that level of title detail.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I think it is a good result for FFXV on X1, all things considered. It surpassed my expectations anyway. However, FFXV is the biggest JRPG released on consoles. So, I am not sure things would scale as well to other smaller Japanese projects ported to X1.
Of course, it would be great if they wanted to take a chance with it though. At the very least, I think it bodes well for KH3 on X1.
Of course, it would be great if they wanted to take a chance with it though. At the very least, I think it bodes well for KH3 on X1.
Nope, being Tier 2 hurt them a lot. 2016 numbers aren't there for consoles 2015 but seeing the retail value numbers for each have PS4 outselling XBO by a factor of four.
Sweden was the only place where it was only outsold by a factor of two.
http://angi-nordic.com/portfolio/games-sales-report-2015/
GAF thread http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1253976
KillerMan91
Member
It's still way down to any COD since World at War. This is the same argument that people use to paint FF XV sales being great in Japan despite there being massive decrease to previous games.
I guess I'll throw out a few more broad questions. Not sure if you can answer any, but:
1.) Do you view VR as something that might become a meaningful revenue generator in 2017? I noticed Sony had significant layoffs/shutdowns for three teams that were making VR games recently (Sony London, Sony San Diego, Guerrilla Cambridge), two of which made perhaps their two biggest VR games so far (that compilation PSVR Worlds title and RIGS), so that's not inspiring huge confidence in me toward the faith they have in their platform.
2.) Were there any major genre and/or game type trends this year worth noting? For example, I think most of us would expect that shooter revenue is vastly up, but was revenue for singleplayer games notably down, or other observations of that nature? This could also apply on the generation scale if that makes more sense, like I imagine sum aggregate racing game sales are significantly down.
3.) Perhaps most interestingly, is there anything that has majorly changed in the market over the course of the generation? Obviously there's a significant uptake in digital purchasing compared to the first year of the PS4/XB1, and we've seen Toys To Life fade away, but in terms of genre trends or anything else that might be interesting.
1.) Do you view VR as something that might become a meaningful revenue generator in 2017? I noticed Sony had significant layoffs/shutdowns for three teams that were making VR games recently (Sony London, Sony San Diego, Guerrilla Cambridge), two of which made perhaps their two biggest VR games so far (that compilation PSVR Worlds title and RIGS), so that's not inspiring huge confidence in me toward the faith they have in their platform.
2.) Were there any major genre and/or game type trends this year worth noting? For example, I think most of us would expect that shooter revenue is vastly up, but was revenue for singleplayer games notably down, or other observations of that nature? This could also apply on the generation scale if that makes more sense, like I imagine sum aggregate racing game sales are significantly down.
3.) Perhaps most interestingly, is there anything that has majorly changed in the market over the course of the generation? Obviously there's a significant uptake in digital purchasing compared to the first year of the PS4/XB1, and we've seen Toys To Life fade away, but in terms of genre trends or anything else that might be interesting.
450k for FF on xbox is damn good, surprised it sold that much
Dunno what it's like in the US but you can already get it for £20 here and have been able to since way before Christmas. To put that into perspective, any other CoD you'd be lucky to see for £20 10 months into its life let alone 1. Nothing against discounts but it's clear the game isn't selling anywhere close to what Activision wanted or expected. It might be selling like hot cakes in comparison to other games but it does that almost by default.
Dunno what it's like in the US but you can already get it for £20 here and have been able to since way before Christmas. To put that into perspective, any other CoD you'd be lucky to see for £20 10 months into its life let alone 1. Nothing against discounts but it's clear the game isn't selling anywhere close to what Activision wanted or expected. It might be selling like hot cakes in comparison to other games but it does that almost by default.
Ah thankyou for the clarification!
I presumed since it was the same companies owning and publishing on the store, it'd be all or nothing in-terms of reporting data from that store.
I would of thought if they offered data to publishers from their store, they'd atleast share the same numbers for their own titles to you.
Reineldinho
Member
Although I agree, a smaller Japanese project ported to X1 wouldn't need to sell hundreds of thousands to be profitable. The production values of those games are not the same than a 10-years-development FF.
On a side note, I like jrpg games, but never had the chance to play KH games (one reason or another): KH3 really needs to be great in terms or everything to make people like me jump directly to the third main installement. One of the nicest things about FF is that every game has its own lore, story, etc.
.
hanspampel
Banned
Yeah I know that report. And xbox has a way better market share in northern europe than middle or south europe.
One reason is also, that Nintendos share is so low in the north.
Ps4 is outselling xb1 in Germany on a factor 4.5:1
And Nintendo is taking a bigger cut of the total Market.
The US market makes up 60+% of xbone install base iirc, and only 30+% for ps4. That means the actual ratio is roughly 85:15 in a best case scenario (FFXV's AAA values, realistic artstyle, brand power, open world nature, etc plays well to the xbone audience).
The ratio will be closer to 9:1 for non-FF JRPGs and most of these titles will be lucky to sell >250k outside Japan. I don't think 25k sales is remotely close to justifying a xbone port.
Oh I like these questions. Waiting for a response.
Thanks for being active in this thread, Mat.
Agreed. Although I can't help but find it ironic that we rationalize/justify their behavior and yet give MS flack constantly for not doing a better job competing in the rest of the world. The expectation is for Japanese developers to ignore XB1 users due to poor JRPG sales. However, all they are doing is just perpetuating the cycle by ignoring XB1 users. Exactly what MS is guilty of in the rest of the world.
We have different opinions on what "good" is.
They aren't good compared to PS360, they aren't good compared to France, they aren't good compared to Germany but they are good compared to Spain. The rest I can't say.
Depends.
What are the future plans.
What is the cost of the port.
Can they do something else with that manpower.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Where did you get that 1.5 from?
The Mad Draklor
Member
I copied that number from Welfare after he calculated the 19% increase over FFXIII. Is the number incorrect?
DriftingSpirit
Member
gundamkyoukai
Member
That is only disc base numbers .
Someone used FFXIII NPD number along with the 19% and work it out .
As usual we don't have a idea about total month sales since we don't get DD numbers . ( or numbers that much any more.)
At this point i don't think Japanese pubs think or want to grow the xbox JRPG fan base .
They tried last gen and Xbox had much better numbers WW.
PC seem like a better fit since it has less over head and higher profit margin .
ForkNetwork
Banned
Considering KH3 will release god knows when, this is definitely a possibility.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Ah, I'd estimate like 200 more
gundamkyoukai
Member
hanspampel
Banned
first of all you already said it by yourself: the xbox one launched over a half year later in those countries and still is more competitive than in middle or south europe.
secondly: i really don't know why so many people here on gaf try to judge the xbox one success solely on how much they're being outsold by ps4 and ignore everything else. that is not how it works
is your success at university solely based on how much less points you made compared to the #1 in the class and nothing else??
is the success of Peugeot solely based on how much they sell less compared to Toyota and nothing else?
Obviously not, that would be ridiculous.
All those ratios >>>>>>>>>>>>> USA ratio
And that was my point. Not saying all the countries share the same "huge" ratio.
And as someone said, in Spain it's likely increasing right now lol
DarkLordMalik
Member
Glad to have confirmation of closer to 1.8 million with digital. Cheers!
slavesnyder
Member
It's called market share. And that's not unimportant in sales analysis.
If that's too simplified, you can compare it to the predecessor product and see, how market share developed compared to last gen.
So the XB number you mentioned before was incl. digital?
MatPiscatella
Member
Opinions are still all over the board on VR. There is still intense interest from investors and developers. There's been, as you know, incredible investment already. I hardly think that Gen 1 of VR will be the long-term story.
And to be clear, the following is my own personal take, and not that of anyone else or the company. But, we're talking 2017. And I just don't know. In the mobile space, I think the installed base will continue to grow meaningfully and will become the dominant segment. For more gaming focused VR, I'm not so certain 2017 is the year of huge leaps forward. Maybe it will be. I'm in a wait and see mode. Where's the news of the software pipeline to consumers to encourage adoption?
Working on this kind of stuff over the next few weeks. I've been more engaged and interested in the macro stuff in regards to business models and where development investment is going and where the games will be coming from. I noted these in my 2017 predictions post on the NPD blog.
With game count being so low, outlier titles will move markets. If a title like Mortal Kombat launches in a year, Fighting sales as a whole will go up meaningfully. It's not like the old days 5-6 years ago where you'd have a decent sample and variety of titles released across the genres that would make genre trending useful. Sample size of titles is just so low now.
If I find anything I'll bring it up somewhere, maybe start a thread.
How people are buying content, and the depth of content they're buying within a game I think is the big story. People are playing certain games for much longer periods of time than they used to. They're also spending more within those games, both in time and in dollars. A game like Rainbow Six: Siege, or Overwatch, or Madden/FIFA, and ESPECIALLY GTAV. And not just playing, but watching streaming content for these games as well. Communities are built around them, they become their own verticals within the gaming space sometimes to the exclusion of other titles being released.
I think this is the most significant change in the console space. Last gen, players could stick with a game for maybe 30 hours, tops (unless it's some JRPG grind fest). Now? Hundreds upon hundreds of hours in one game, playing, watching, talking about it.
So it's all about Users and ARPU. That's a huge shift from how games were thought about and built, even at the end of the last gen. And these changes are happening incredibly fast. It's a pretty fascinating time.
Thanks for letting me participate.
I dont think generations will end, but they will probably move to a blended model. Regular PS4 will play everything marked PS4 on the box. When PS5 releases, early titles will have PS5 and PS4 pro modes (in 1080p) on the same disk, but will be incompatible with regular ps4. PS5 will natively play PS4 disks. Eventually PS4 pro support will drop off, and half way through the generation we'll get a PS5 refresh. You still still get 6ish years out of your system (plus late releases), but will have the option to upgrade every 3 years if you are an early adopter.
LordRaptor
Member
I can believe in a PS5 being able to play PS4 games, but I see no reason why anyone would make a PS5 game and add an extra PS4 Pro version of it, or bother making three versions of a game when their cross gen release could just be PS4 and PS5 when people super bothered about performance would just buy a PS5 anyway.
The biggest, most ambitious, most heavily marketed FF game doing "ok" / "not so bad" on a console with practically no Japanese support doesn't mean XB1 will suddenly see a slew of JRPG ports.
Curious how the PC version will do. I imagine they're waiting for a "complete" or GOTY edition to rerelease on consoles and PC.
Curious how the PC version will do. I imagine they're waiting for a "complete" or GOTY edition to rerelease on consoles and PC.
Fewer disks on shelves. If no one wants the last gen version, you dont have a ton in bargain bins never to be sold.
LordRaptor
Member
In which case you just sell one SKU which has a regular ass PS4 game in it, and a regular ass PS5 version in it.
I don't see where Ps4Pro fits in that hypothetical.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
No. 1.8 (0.29) = 522k for XB1 in US in <2 months. 800-900k is hardly a controversial number for FFXV on XB1 with that in mind. Should be in the same ballpark as a PC version, hence the irony.
hanspampel
Banned
correct. marketshare is one aspect
and when do you have a bigger marketshare?
A: you getting outsold by the marketleader 4.5:1 and the third competitor has 20% share
B: you getting outsold by the marketleader 4:1 and the third competitor has only 10% share
A: you have 14.5% marketshare
B you have 18% marketshare
you could even be outsold by a higher margin as 5:1 in scenario B and still have a bigger marketshare in 15%
and that was the whole point i was making in my statement. xbox is doing better in the northern countries in europe compared to middle europe. and further into the south it's getting way worse.
UK and Scandinavia (geographically) are doing good / okayish
it gets worse going into denmark, belgium and germany
and it's really bad when you look at spain, portugal, italy and greece
of course this is a simplification and some markets are stronger or weaker.
NL as example. Xbox was always doing better in the netherlands compared to other european markets.
But the main rough tone stands true.
Xbox gets stronger from the south to north. or vice versa weaker from the north to south
nintendo is the exact opposite
sony is strong across the whole of europe
and sometimes i have the feeling people here get offended, when you say xbox is doing good. all is just black or white. nothing in between or a mixture is possible...
yes first time ever in recent history
EA really needs to expand and grow the madden franchise. Bring it finally to PC with the change to frostbite engine and cut the last gen version?
Maybe add the story mode from Fifa?
Bring back manager only mode?
Football is still the by far dominant sport in the US, but people play more basketball on console (and pc)
Greninja96
Banned
Based on unit sales, Pokemon Sun and Moon was the best selling game of the year, is that right?
Just one correction you need to make, the Xbox number of 450k already included digital. So you need to multiply the 1,800,000 by the XBox percentage of .25