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[Kazerei]

How so? I'm just going off what we've seen so far. It's a stretch to suggest the 360 is going to be massively down when it's never been down YoY and MS expect another big year. Yet Wii is consistantly down millions YOY

360 has been down YOY for the past three months*. Both Microsoft and Nintendo could still cut their prices to boost sales though, so it'll be interesting to see how things play out.

I expect the 720 to launch mid-to-late next 2013, so I don't think there's enough time for the 360 to overtake the Wii.

*Edit: oh wait, you meant for the full year? Well, at best the 360 might be able to cut the lead in half this year, but next year? Hard to say.

 

[Clear]

I still expect Sony to pull out another form-factor revision within the next 12 months.

PS3 needs to be $199 or lower in order to make space for their successor device.

 

[Tomat]

Why is Modern Warfare 3 still at the top?

You'd think everyone has their copy by now.

 

[Petrae]

I respect jvm's analysis a lot, but Sony cutting the PS3's price again in April seems unlikely to me. Sony didn't really seem enthused by the results of their last price cut.

Better YOY results than the X360 or Wii also could be argued as reasons for Sony to stand pat a bit longer, but as long as YOY results continue to struggle-- and with Sony claiming that its next platform is still a long way away-- Sony may need to be the aggressor before interest wanes too much. If Microsoft beats Sony to the price drop punch, the PS3 will have a difficult time remaining relevant.

 

[Miles X]

I also don't see how Sony can cut the price of the PS3 in April, that's a mere, 8 months after the last cut, and given their current financials ... it just seems to be throwing money away. It also further rules out a PS Vita cut (which is much more needed IMO)

If they did cut in April, I'll continue to be amazed at how investors sit by unphased, at how Microsoft can keep the same price for 3+ years yet Sony has to cut the price at the first sign of trouble.

 

[sloppyjoe_gamer]

I also don't see how Sony can cut the price of the PS3 in April, that's a mere, 8 months after the last cut, and given their current financials ... it just seems to be throwing money away. It also further rules out a PS Vita cut (which is much more needed IMO)

If they did cut in April, I'll continue to be amazed at how investors sit by unphased, at how Microsoft can keep the same price for 3+ years yet Sony has to cut the price at the first sign of trouble.

They wont...my guess is that they will do so as part of their E3 conference if MS shows some of their next-gen xbox stuff.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

The $50 PS3 pricecut was a big meh. If you read that gamescon thread where it was anounced, allmost everybody was dissapointed and knew that it wouldn't have a big impact. Imo they should have just waited another year and cut it by $100.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

The $50 PS3 pricecut was a big meh. If you read that gamescon thread where it was anounced, allmost everybody was dissapointed and knew that it wouldn't have a big impact. Imo they should have just waited another year and cut it by $100.

Sony probably figured it was better to have two years of consistent sales rather than one year of awful sales followed by one year of good sales. In other words, Christmas 2011 would have been rough on the PS3 at $299.

 

[jvm]

Thanks guys.

My view (i.e. my opinion and not precisely facts or figures) is that Sony has a window in which they can really make themselves relevant for the remainder of the generation. Microsoft has successfully made "Xbox" a generic term for a video game system (squeezing out "PlayStation" some), has the dominant network (with all the stickiness that it brings), has the hottest current trend (Kinect), some key exclusives that may still matter (CoD DLC), and is leading in sales (this is fact, not opinion).

What does Sony have that has even a modicum of this same cachet with the larger public? Not necessarily GAF, of which I consider myself a card-carrying member, but the larger public.

The only lever Sony has publicly which it can pull to change the public perception is price. I want them to make it through their current fiscal year, and then turn things around in the remainder of the calendar year by making Microsoft work for its lead. I want a competitive market, and I don't think they've reached mass market yet.

You can argue that Microsoft is just going to undercut them with a price cut of their own. This is true. It will be Spring 2002 all over again, perhaps. But they're going to have a down year if they don't do something, and last year was basically flat already.

I wrote this column over the weekend. When I got Michael Pachter's comments on price cuts he suggested that if software sales continue to lag, price cuts could come earlier than mid-year. I don't see that as completely out of line with my own timeframe.

But, hey, if we do anything well here on GAF, it's disagree. So... feel free!

 

[Lagspike_exe]

I don't think we should expect a price cut before Leipzig. Have they even managed to shrink down Cell/RSX? That will probably done in the next few months, leading to a price cut in late August that will allow them to sail smoothly through the holidays without any major exclusives. MS will probably price match the Premium model, though, although their Core unit has been $199 for a while, so Sony has a little bit more manouvering room right now. On the other hand, 4GB will hit $149 which is the true mainstream price and if MS supports the Kinect with games tailored for mainstream they're looking at a pretty big Christmas as well.

 

[bigtroyjon]

A PS3 price cut just doesn't seem possible. Their HDD model is already $50 cheaper than the 360's hard drive model and they also mentioned the last price cut as causing a major hit to the profitability of the Game unit. Combine that with the losses that are going to be involved with launching the Vita and it doesn't seem likely since making money is more important to Sony right now than market share.

 

[FoneBone]

Just wondering - why would that be the case for Vita when it wasn't the case for 3DS in April of last year? Not really seeing a basis for that prediction, particularly looking at the software shipping for Vita this month.

Granted, one could argue that sales will pick up on the basis of word of mouth about the hardware, but there's no such argument made to back it up. Curious about your reasoning for that.

Yeah, I'd like to see an explanation for this, too. I don't really see a precedent for it, and it strikes me as a stretch - and really weird that jvm didn't think it warranted any explanation.

 

[StevieP]

I don't think we should expect a price cut before Leipzig. Have they even managed to shrink down Cell/RSX? That will probably done in the next few months, leading to a price cut in late August that will allow them to sail smoothly through the holidays without any major exclusives. MS will probably price match the Premium model, though, although their Core unit has been $199 for a while, so Sony has a little bit more manouvering room right now. On the other hand, 4GB will hit $149 which is the true mainstream price and if MS supports the Kinect with games tailored for mainstream they're looking at a pretty big Christmas as well.

The Cell is already at 45nm. Shrinking it is particularly challenging (AlStrong would explain it better than I can, but basically it's not your standard die shrink) and I don't think they're going to bother shrinking it more than they already have.

I would say they'll sail on the current node until the PS4 comes out.

 

[jvm]

Sorry, I forgot to address the PSV sales. I think Vita sales will come in around 45-50K per week over five weeks for March. That's consistent with the $250 3DS in April 2011 (192K over four weeks, or 48K per week), and I think Sony seriously underplayed their launch (so the tail will be longer relative to the initial spike).

I'm not sanguine about the system's long term sales, but until we get to May-August, I don't think it will crater completely.

 

[fernoca]

Why is Modern Warfare 3 still at the top?

You'd think everyone has their copy by now.

Is on top, because of all the versions combined (PS3, 360, PC, Wii..don't know if the DS version is included since it has the same name but an extra subtitle); but sales are "down"., individually at least.

Just see that the top selling (individual) games were Just Dance 3 (Wii) and Twisted Metal (PS3); and TM did 221k.

 

[test_account]

I'm not really sure why they'd be expected to start at a higher relative level, though. 3DS, after all, had an only slightly longer reporting period (six days) in the March 2011 NPD, and no pre-launch FEB period before that in which a significant chunk of units were sold. But we'll see when next month's numbers roll in.

Were the FEB numbers included in the NPD tracking? The statement from Anita Frazier says that four days of sales for PS Vita is included.

 

[jvm]

Were the FEB numbers included in the NPD tracking? The statement from Anita Frazier says that four days of sales for PS Vita is included.

I think it is widely assumed that the figures include the FEB. Those are, for example, the figures donny2112 used for the prediction thread, and I'm fairly sure he's only going to use it if it's accurate.

 

[muu]

If sales didn't include the FEB and was actually a respectable number for the month Sony probably would have been a little more vocal about their sales this month.

 

[Mpl90]

Sorry, I forgot to address the PSV sales. I think Vita sales will come in around 45-50K per week over five weeks for March. That's consistent with the $250 3DS in April 2011 (192K over four weeks, or 48K per week), and I think Sony seriously underplayed their launch (so the tail will be longer relative to the initial spike).

I'm not sanguine about the system's long term sales, but until we get to May-August, I don't think it will crater completely.

I don't know. The fact is that Vita started much slower than 3DS, especially if you consider its first month from the FEB launch. So, why should it follow the 3DS pattern, when it started much slower.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not seeing so much this possibility.

 

[Father_Brain]

Sorry, I forgot to address the PSV sales. I think Vita sales will come in around 45-50K per week over five weeks for March. That's consistent with the $250 3DS in April 2011 (192K over four weeks, or 48K per week), and I think Sony seriously underplayed their launch (so the tail will be longer relative to the initial spike).

I'm not sanguine about the system's long term sales, but until we get to May-August, I don't think it will crater completely.

Thanks, fair enough. I still predict a similar (proportionate) post-launch sales curve to 3DS, though, and I'd be surprised if it sold over 150K this month.

Specifically, since 3DS sold 48K a week the month after a 400K launch, Vita would proportionately sell 27K a week after a 225K launch. It might do slightly better than that, so 30K/week is my best-case prediction right now.

 

[test_account]

I think it is widely assumed that the figures include the FEB. Those are, for example, the figures donny2112 used for the prediction thread, and I'm fairly sure he's only going to use it if it's accurate.

I was actually the one who pointed that out in the prediction thread, that the FEB bundle was sold earlier, Donny had only written 4 days for the Vita to begin with. I also assumed that the FEB would be included, but seeing later on the statement from Anita Frazier that says 4 days only, i started to wonder.

But it doesnt matter that much though since the Vita will probably last for like 5 years, so if the first ~1 week numbers are 100k or 500k, it wont make much of a difference in the long run. But i was just curious if NPD did include the FEB numbers or not.

 

[Miles X]

Of course FEB was included, NPD track hardware install base and that hardware has to go somewhere. Why would they ommit the FEB's? There is no reason for it.

 

[test_account]

Of course FEB was included, NPD track hardware install base and that hardware has to go somewhere. Why would they ommit the FEB's? There is no reason for it.

NPD counts sales, so it depends on what sales data they have and take into concideration. From the NPD report:

"“There are four days of retail sales reported for PlayStation Vita in this reporting period,” Frazier said. "

So i wouldnt say that it is "of course". Then it should have said 11 days, not 4 days. Or at least have some mention about the FEB release being out for 11 days. It might be likely that NPD did count the FEB sales, but it would be nice to get a confirmation for it, just for curiousity sakes.

 

[jman2050]

From the NPD report:

"“There are four days of retail sales reported for PlayStation Vita in this reporting period,” Frazier said. "

So i wouldnt say that it is "of course". Then it should have said 11 days, not 4 days. It might be likely that NPD did count the FEB sales, but it would be nice to get a confirmation for it, just for curiousity sakes.

As was said before, it's more likely that all FEBs had their point-of-sales registered at launch.

 

[fernoca]

From the OP:

"“There are four days of retail sales reported for PlayStation Vita in this reporting period,” Frazier said. "

So i wouldnt say that it is "of course". Then it should have said 11 days, not 4 days. It might be likely that NPD did count the FEB sales, but it would be nice to get a confirmation for it, just for curiousity sakes.

But as noted, the FEBs were sold as "preorder only"; except for the stores that got extra ones and/or didn't' sold all the preorders in the first place. So it could be that they counted FEBs as preorders/day one sales.

Is the only way that it makes sense, sine otherwise..what happened? Couldn't be counted as accessories or they would've noted it just like they noted Skylanders-figurine sales. And is not like they are going to count them for March.

 

[test_account]

As was said before, it's more likely that all FEBs had their point-of-sales registered at launch.

But as noted, the FEBs were sold as "preorder only"; except for the stores that got extra ones and/or didn't' sold all the preorders in the first place. So it could be that they counted FEBs as preorders/day one sales.

Is the only way that it makes sense, sine otherwise..what happened? Couldn't be counted as accessories or they would've noted it just like they noted Skylanders-figurine sales. And is not like they are going to count them for March.

It is the 4 days statement i'm mostly wondering about. I agree that it is likely that they counted the FEB sales, but that is just speculation as far as i can see. Just find it curious why NDP didnt mention anything about the FEB in their statement when most likely a fair share of Vitas were sold before the official release date. But i was just curious if there had been any confirmation on this from NPD

 

[Dalthien]

NPD counts sales, so it depends on what sales data they have and take into concideration. From the NPD report:

"“There are four days of retail sales reported for PlayStation Vita in this reporting period,” Frazier said. "

So i wouldnt say that it is "of course". Then it should have said 11 days, not 4 days. Or at least have some mention about the FEB release being out for 11 days. It might be likely that NPD did count the FEB sales, but it would be nice to get a confirmation for it, just for curiousity sakes.

Trust me, FEB sales were included in the 225k number for Vita.

As for why she said 4 days on sale, that's just because that's the official release date for Vita. She doesn't sit down and follow every last detail of the gaming industry like we do here on GAF. She reads the data from a report and puts out a PR. When she looks up the official release date for Vita, it shows that it was on sale for 4 days. Just like if Target or WalMart or whoever decides to release a game a few days before the street date - the NPD statement won't mention it. They really don't care. But the sales get counted.
Seriously, this is a non-issue.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't think it's really debatable that FEB was included regardless of Frazier's wording.

Although taking into account the ASP in jvm's article the majority of the sales would have presumably been during the official launch, rather than pre-launch.

 

[NavNucST3]

GME reports on the 22nd so maybe someone will ask about current Vita sales during the conference call which might help us glean current interest.

 

[BKK]

Graphs from the article for ya all!!!

Would be funny if Mattrick's "first to 10 million wins" ended up being right.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2008/may08/05-14360first10pr.mspx

REDMOND, Wash. — May 14, 2008 — Microsoft Corp. today announced that the Xbox 360 video game and entertainment system has sold over 10 million units in the U.S., making it the first current-generation gaming console to break the 10 million mark in the U.S. The U.S. install base contributes to global sales of over 19 million.

“This year will be the largest in the history of the video game industry, with Xbox 360 leading the charge in the U.S. and abroad,” said Don Mattrick, senior vice president of the Interactive Entertainment Business in the Entertainment and Devices Division at Microsoft. “History has shown us that the first company to reach 10 million in console sales wins the generation battle. We are uniquely positioned to set a new benchmark for the industry.”

 

[Hammer24]

Thx as usual, JVM, very interesting analysis.

As to the price cut arguments:
I think they´ll all stay put. MS hasn´t had a price cut in quite a while. They could counter Sony´s price cut (if it came) anytime they wish. Thus Sony wouldn´t gain anything and just lower their financial outlook.
Do you know if the 360´s ASP is still higher than the PS3´s?

 

[jvm]

Thx as usual, JVM, very interesting analysis.

As to the price cut arguments:
I think they´ll all stay put. MS hasn´t had a price cut in quite a while. They could counter Sony´s price cut (if it came) anytime they wish. Thus Sony wouldn´t gain anything and just lower their financial outlook.
Do you know if the 360´s ASP is still higher than the PS3´s?

Thanks for the kind comments. We'll see about pricing... should be fun for us all to watch!

The Xbox 360 ASP dropped $15 between January and February, from $299 to $284. PS3 went to $271.

Also:

 

[test_account]

Trust me, FEB sales were included in the 225k number for Vita.

As for why she said 4 days on sale, that's just because that's the official release date for Vita. She doesn't sit down and follow every last detail of the gaming industry like we do here on GAF. She reads the data from a report and puts out a PR. When she looks up the official release date for Vita, it shows that it was on sale for 4 days. Just like if Target or WalMart or whoever decides to release a game a few days before the street date - the NPD statement won't mention it. They really don't care. But the sales get counted.
Seriously, this is a non-issue.

Releasing a game before street date would be unofficial and it is also "illegal", but the FEB was official. But yeah, as i mentioned earlier, it doesnt matter much if the first week is 100k or 500k, so it isnt really much important. I just wondered if NPD had made any official statement/correction on the mentioning of 4 days.

 

[Psychotext]

I wonder what that would look like without the Wii (hardware) revenue.

 

[Mr Swine]

Are software sales good enough right now? Are they enough for the next gen consoles if they have been out for 7 years without a successor?

 

[Celine]

I wonder what that would look like without the Wii (hardware) revenue.

Yeah, that chart apex culminate with Wii (and DS) sales explosion.

 

[specialguy]

This is an interesting graph. So by the time we reach May 2012, 360 will have cut the Wii's lead by almost 4 million in two years. Assuming that the 720 (or whatever) launches next year, the 360 could get within 1-2M of the Wii LTD in the US. Would that be the closest console race ever in the US? How close were the SNES and Genesis?

Not sure why people are arbitrarily cutting off the race when the next gen console launches. There's little doubt when all is said and done 360 will sell more hardware in the USA than Wii and PS3. I call that winning a generation.

I guess if you were to go by the "cutting off" method, shouldn't you at least wait until all three next gen consoles launch? So you'd probably be looking at 2014 and PS4.

Or I'm sure many people will mark the cutoff as when the Wii U launches, in which case Wii "won".

Even if we say cutoff date is Nov 2013 when Xbox 720 launches (perhaps, still wouldn't be shocked to see 2014) 360 would probably win. Whats the lead now for Wii? ~5.4m I think? If 360 wins the next 8 months by average of ~200k (possible with price cut), then wins the holiday 2 months by 2m combined (should be easy with Wii U stopping Wii sales) that will leave Wii 1.8m ahead and the 360 ten months in 2013 with Wii U on the market to catch it. Should be easy. Especially because imo Wii sales are likely to tank really fast with Wii U on the market.

For that matter as to the cutting off point, you could choose to cut the Wii numbers off the day the Wii U comes out. Dont see why that's not just as valid, in that case 360 would easily overtake it.

 

[jvm]

Are software sales good enough right now? Are they enough for the next gen consoles if they have been out for 7 years without a successor?

No one knows the answer to this, as far as I know. There is no direct precedent, and the steep decline so far this year is troubling.

Michael Pachter has put forward the hypothesis that as the generation ages, the consumers who are buying are only buying the big-name games and holding off on purchases in between.

I don't know yet, but it's an interesting idea. We'll have to see what happens in April. March will clearly be defined by Mass Effect.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No one knows the answer to this, as far as I know. There is no direct precedent, and the steep decline so far this year is troubling.

Michael Pachter has put forward the hypothesis that as the generation ages, the consumers who are buying are only buying the big-name games and holding off on purchases in between.

I don't know yet, but it's an interesting idea. We'll have to see what happens in April. March will clearly be defined by Mass Effect.

Looking at the UK charts, he may be onto something.

It's kind of a strange shift in behaviour. Now, rather than during the depths of recession. End of gen fatigue? franchise fatigue?

I don't expect next gen's games to play that differently, so I don't really get why a hardware refresh would renew interest - besides the flash and spectacle of shiny new graphics for Assassin's Creed 4, Final Fantasy XV and CoD 100.

 

[StevieP]

Not sure why people are arbitrarily cutting off the race when the next gen console launches. There's little doubt when all is said and done 360 will sell more hardware in the USA than Wii and PS3. I call that winning a generation.

I guess if you were to go by the "cutting off" method, shouldn't you at least wait until all three next gen consoles launch? So you'd probably be looking at 2014 and PS4.

Or I'm sure many people will mark the cutoff as when the Wii U launches, in which case Wii "won".

Even if we say cutoff date is Nov 2013 when Xbox 720 launches (perhaps, still wouldn't be shocked to see 2014) 360 would probably win. Whats the lead now for Wii? ~5.4m I think? If 360 wins the next 8 months by average of ~200k (possible with price cut), then wins the holiday 2 months by 2m combined (should be easy with Wii U stopping Wii sales) that will leave Wii 1.8m ahead and the 360 ten months in 2013 with Wii U on the market to catch it. Should be easy. Especially because imo Wii sales are likely to tank really fast with Wii U on the market.

For that matter as to the cutting off point, you could choose to cut the Wii numbers off the day the Wii U comes out. Dont see why that's not just as valid, in that case 360 would easily overtake it.

Dear lord.
No. No, man.

 

[jvm]

Second part is up. Will be afk this afternoon. Sorry.
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/165690/February_US_game_sales_paint_bleak_picture_for_retail.php

 

[Miles X]

Dear lord.
No. No, man.

You keep saying 'no' to this idea without any actual argument. I wonder if you've actually looked at sales these past 2 years and done any sums, it doesn't sound like you have. You're aware 360 outsold Wii by 2.7m last year right? Wii had a price cut, 360 didn't ... (also had a PS3 price cut to contend with).

Wii sales are tanking harder this year.

Jan + Feb 2011 X360 outsold Wii by about 142k.
Jan + Feb 2012 X360 has outsold Wii by 316k.

Nov + Dec last year X360 was up 200k, Wii was down 1.7m.

Using the figures/history we've got, you'd be hard pressed to come up with an argument as to why it won't happen, but then you don't seem interested in doing that anyway, so just come back in a year when it's practically guaranteed.

 

[John Harker]

Here's a fun tidbit, FF13 actually made it in the PS3 top 10

 

[Kazerei]

.

.

The entire industry is on a downtrend. There's no way last year's numbers will be sustained. And next year will be worse as the industry transitions to next gen.

 

[Psychotext]

The entire industry is on a downtrend. There's no way last year's numbers will be sustained. And next year will be worse as the industry transitions to next gen.

Halo 4 plus a price drop. I wouldn't bet too hard against Microsoft matching last year's figures.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The entire industry is on a downtrend. There's no way last year's numbers will be sustained. And next year will be worse as the industry transitions to next gen.

2011: 360 ~7 million Wii ~4.5 million Year-end game: ~5 million

2012: Clearly the Wii is going to decline more YoY than the 360, I think we all agree this, but let's pretend both lose 30% of their sales YoY: 360 ~4.9 million Wii ~3.1 million. Gap now ~3 million.

2013: Let's have the 360 lose another 30% of its sales, and we'll have the Wii drop to 1 million because it has been discontinued: 2013: 360 3.4 million Wii 1 million. Gap now ~1 million.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the 360 passes the Wii lifetime, but I also don't think it's absurd.

 

[StevieP]

What about the consideration that the 360's successor will be out in 2013? That may put a dent in the YoY sales of the 360

 

[Miles X]

What about the consideration that the 360's successor will be out in 2013? That may put a dent in the YoY sales of the 360

It'll be late 2013 if anything, even if MS announce it at E3 this year do you really think the consumers buying X360 now are the type to hold off and wait for a pricey new console ... I don't think so. That's not why Wii has slowed down either ...

On the topic of downward trend, X360 doesn't even need to match last years figures to beat Wii, just continue to outsell it at the same rate. Given Jan + Feb figures, and the fact MS havn't had a price cut in years and Kinect isn't mass market price for new buyers yet .. alogn with huge hits still to come. It's unlikely the 360 is going to sell less than what it sold over the Wii last year.

 

[Kazerei]

Halo 4 plus a price drop. I wouldn't bet too hard against Microsoft matching last year's figures.

Given January and February results, I'm betting against it.

 

[Version 3.0]

For that matter as to the cutting off point, you could choose to cut the Wii numbers off the day the Wii U comes out. Dont see why that's not just as valid, in that case 360 would easily overtake it.

There are only two logical ways to count a "gen": either count all the sales no matter when they occur, in which case you may have a late "winner" because a console drops out of the race (more or less) for whatever reason - this happened with the SNES/Genesis and could happen this gen.

Or you can decide what time frame the "gen" consists of, but that's arbitrary and you'll find it tough to get a consensus, especially when that will change who "won".

The Wii had its heyday, as did the Genesis, but the 360 could be the late "winner" by virtue of a strong finish, just like the SNES was.