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NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
StrongBlackVine said:
Apparently it is outrageous to think it could sell 3 million lifetime.
Click to expand...

No it's not.

However, It is outrageous to base first month/lifetime sales on an Amazon ranking.

Like I've said multiple times in this thread, no one is doubting that Bloodborne will do well, but to use one retailer as a way to say sales will be explosive etc... doesn't really mean much.

(This post isn't aimed at you btw, just the comment in general)
 
N

Nightengale

Member
ZhugeEX said:
No it's not.

However, It is outrageous to base first month/lifetime sales on an Amazon ranking.
Click to expand...

Pretty much.

I'd go so far to say that Amazon, from a software perspective, is only good as a positive reinforcement in one perspective, in that a game that charts well is less likely to flop badly at launch. And I use the term badly very liberally.

But it's not even good as a negative reinforcement, because games that chart low doesn't mean it'll do badly.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
StrongBlackVine said:
Apparently it is outrageous to think it could sell 3 million lifetime.
Click to expand...
Then there are people who underestimate its sales as well ;) 3 million lifetime is totally achievable IMO, considering Souls games have really long legs and Sony might bundle Bloodborne for the holidays.

Conduit said:
BruceLeeRoy said that we gonna be impressed with Bloodborne sales, whatever that means.
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Not sure where he got that info. He's no retailer or anything.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
I see some are still harping on Amazon being a small percent of the market for NPD. Amazon is a huge retailer. Whatever is popular there you can predict is popular everywhere else. And vice versa. Check for yourselves. Other retailers charts are available. What you shouldn't be doing is predicting exact sales.

Also BB doing 300K in the U S. would be a success. Didn't it sell 157K in Japan? Why is it hard to believe it can't do 300K in a much bigger market?
 
T

The Shogun

Banned
On Demand said:
I see some are still harping on Amazon being a small percent of the market for NPD. Amazon is a huge retailer. Whatever is popular there you can predict is popular everywhere else. And vice versa.
Click to expand...

Not true as Evolve proved last month and Hardline will show this month.

Amazon is not very representative of the software market at large at all, especially for first month sales data. Their market share for new games at launch is fairly miniscule.

Bloodborne IS successful. I'm certain Sony and From are plenty happy with its sales. But there's some crazy predictions in here. 600k? Not even close. If they can manage to do over 300k it will be a huge success imo and I fo feel that's doable at this point. It being a 5 week period I'd guess its top end could be maybe 350k.

* everything stated is my own opinion and not representative of any business or its data
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
On Demand said:
I see some are still harping on Amazon being a small percent of the market for NPD. Amazon is a huge retailer. Whatever is popular there you can predict is popular everywhere else. And vice versa. Check for yourselves. Other retailers charts are available. What you shouldn't be doing is predicting exact sales.

Also BB doing 300K in the U S. would be a success. Didn't it sell 157K in Japan? Why is it hard to believe it can't do 300K in a much bigger market?
Click to expand...

I know people don't like to bring up userbase but that JP number is from a 1.4 million userbase. What's the U.S. userbase? 6 million? I hope it at least does 300K in the U.S.
 
S

SnowFlakeCake

Member
I feel bad for that iamrandom guy, dude's kinda asking for a shout out when Bloodborne sales release. It's a great game (loving it) but not the kind of game which is going to sell a huge amount, a number in the region of 250k would be great. Amazon, gaming forums etc are not a good barometer of what actual sales will look like, it does not take a genius to know that Hardline will have wiped the floor with Bloorborne, wouldn't at all be surprised is PS4 sales alone are higher for Hardline than Bloodborne.

Would love to be wrong but very much doubt it .
 
O

Omnistalgic

Member
Predicting is fun, but I hope BloodBorne sells 3 million LTS. I really want a beefier/better version of BB pretty soon this gen. Loving it.
 
M

Magic Mushroom

Member
SnowFlakeCake said:
I feel bad for that iamrandom guy, dude's kinda asking for a shout out when Bloodborne sales release. It's a great game (loving it) but not the kind of game which is going to sell a huge amount, a number in the region of 250k would be great. Amazon, gaming forums etc are not a good barometer of what actual sales will look like, it does not take a genius to know that Hardline will have wiped the floor with Bloorborne, wouldn't at all be surprised is PS4 sales alone are higher for Hardline than Bloodborne.

Would love to be wrong but very much doubt it .
Click to expand...

Bloodborne had a great debut in the UK, better than any Souls game and number one in the single format charts. Most people on my friend list are playing it. It'll do very well, pretty sure of that.

Deserved as well. Amazing game.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
The Shogun said:
Not true as Evolve proved last month and Hardline will show this month.

Amazon is not very representative of the software market at large at all, especially for first month sales data. Their market share for new games at launch is fairly miniscule.

Bloodborne IS successful. I'm certain Sony and From are plenty happy with its sales. But there's some crazy predictions in here. 600k? Not even close. If they can manage to do over 300k it will be a huge success imo and I fo feel that's doable at this point. It being a 5 week period I'd guess its top end could be maybe 350k.

* everything stated is my own opinion and not representative of any business or its data
Click to expand...

Like i said you can't use it and guess how much something is going to sell. But i mean if you see a product also charting at all major retailers for the duration of a month you can say it's doing pretty well. Amazon is usually iffy with software though i agree.

I don't think BB will do 600K. It only has one week and a couple days of NPD tracking. 300K is the max i can see it doing. It's definitely selling more than The Order.
 
S

Sammy Samusu

Member
Psycho_Mantis said:
290k and that includes digital which NPD does not track so when people say 300k its without digital.

Your logic makes little sense but thats expected.
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Well, lower my prediction to 500k then, not that much of a difference.

The fact is, Monster Hunter is a handheld exclusive, in the west, and with close to non-existent promo. While Bloodborne is the new Souls game, marketed by Sony and on the most popular home console of the generation.

It should sell more than Monster Hunter, easily. What is your prediction?
 
A

anexanhume

Member
The Shogun said:
Not true as Evolve proved last month and Hardline will show this month.

Amazon is not very representative of the software market at large at all, especially for first month sales data. Their market share for new games at launch is fairly miniscule.

Bloodborne IS successful. I'm certain Sony and From are plenty happy with its sales. But there's some crazy predictions in here. 600k? Not even close. If they can manage to do over 300k it will be a huge success imo and I fo feel that's doable at this point. It being a 5 week period I'd guess its top end could be maybe 350k.

* everything stated is my own opinion and not representative of any business or its data
Click to expand...

Indeed, which is why having Bloodborne almost equal to the Xb1 AC bundle on the year is a fair comparison point. We know what the Xbox has been doing and we know Amazon is fairly in line with the overall market on hardware sales, predicting the winner each month except December of 2013. Wish I hadn't floated the 10% number coming up with crazy numbers at first. The 360k is actually somewhat plausible.
 
M

Massa

Member
On Demand said:
Like i said you can't use it and guess how much something is going to sell. But i mean if you see a product also charting at all major retailers for the duration of a month you can say it's doing pretty well. Amazon is usually iffy with software though i agree.

I don't think BB will do 600K. It only has one week and a couple days of NPD tracking. 300K is the max i can see it doing. It's definitely selling more than The Order.
Click to expand...

Close to 300k in two weeks is pretty much what The Order did.
 
T

The Shogun

Banned
Here's my question, for those of you that think Bloodborne is going to put up 500k or more on NPD what on earth are you projecting Hardline to do?

Massa said:
Close to 300k in two weeks is pretty much what The Order did.
Click to expand...

The Order was much closer to 200k than 300k in NPD last month.
 
S

Serenity

Member
The Shogun said:
Here's my question, for those of you that think Bloodborne is going to put up 500k or more on NPD what on earth are you projecting Hardline to do?



The Order was much closer to 200k than 300k in NPD last month.
Click to expand...

Are you sure since it was ranked ahead of MH4U which did 290K with digital. I wouldn't imagine MH4 digitals sales would be much over 10%.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
The Shogun said:
Here's my question, for those of you that think Bloodborne is going to put up 500k or more on NPD what on earth are you projecting Hardline to do?



The Order was much closer to 200k than 300k in NPD last month.
Click to expand...


The Monster Hunter did 290k ( digital included ). Chill out, man.
 
C

Chris1

Member
The Shogun said:
Here's my question, for those of you that think Bloodborne is going to put up 500k or more on NPD what on earth are you projecting Hardline to do?
Click to expand...
I don't think that's really a fair comparison though, Bloodborne is PS4's first killer exclusive and is the highest rated next gen exclusive so far, so a lot of people will be picking it up just to check it out etc while hardline is a crappy battlefield that people will avoid.


I'm not saying Bloodborne will do over 500k, ~400k ish is my guess... Just pointing that out.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Chris1 said:
I don't think that's really a fair comparison though, Bloodborne is PS4's first killer exclusive and is the highest rated next gen exclusive so far, so a lot of people will be picking it up just to check it out etc while hardline is a crappy battlefield that people will avoid.


I'm not saying Bloodborne will do over 500k, ~400k ish is my guess... Just pointing that out.
Click to expand...
So do you think Hardline will do worse? Better?
 
T

The Shogun

Banned
Serenity said:
Are you sure since it was ranked ahead of MH4U which did 290K with digital. I wouldn't imagine MH4 digitals sales would be much over 10%.
Click to expand...

Hm entirely possible. I was just basing that on the way cream writes his leaks.

He put 200k < The Order

He usually puts games closer to the number that they sell. If it was closer to 300k it would usually be more his style to put it like this

300k > The Order

Or

250k < The Order
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Nothing wrong with The Shogun post, Cream said The Order did >200K, which means it's very close to 200K. Plus The Shogun works at a big retailer so he knows the general trends.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Conduit said:
The Monster Hunter did 290k ( digital included ). Chill out, man.
Click to expand...

digital+bundles, also we can only really compare retail-only sales unless Sony decides to spill total numbers (yeah right)

and since creamsugar's post was The Order>200k, it was probably 200-225k (otherwise he would have probably put The Order<250k or something)
 
W

Wynnebeck

Banned
Chobel said:
Nothing wrong with The Shogun post, Cream said The Order did >200K, which means it's very close to 200K. Plus The Shogun works at a big retailer so he knows the general trends.
Click to expand...

Does the NPD record digital sales with retailer? If The Order charted on the NPD above MH4U at 290K then it's possible The Order was above that, but under 300K. If Cream was giving numbers without digital then his original post of The Order > 200K would make more sense.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Wynnebeck said:
Does the NPD record digital sales with retailer? If The Order charted on the NPD above MH4U at 290K then it's possible The Order was above that, but under 300K. If Cream was giving numbers without digital then his original post of The Order > 200K would make more sense.
Click to expand...

No, just retail sales.
 
C

Chris1

Member
Welfare said:
So do you think Hardline will do worse? Better?
Click to expand...

On the PS4 only? I'd guess roughly the same as bloodborne, maybe even a bit less. I'm not expecting much from that at all.

I'm not sure how much BF sells normally though so that could just be a guess from my ass, I'm just going off that BF4 sold 825-850k in total on launch month and nothing else, but that came out only weeks before the next gen consoles and the game was broken which gave it a bad word of mouth around launch... So with that in mind, and that it's not a mainline battlefield game I'm guessing we'll probably see similar total results for hardline.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
theprodigy said:
digital+bundles, also we can only really compare retail-only sales unless Sony decides to spill total numbers (yeah right)

and since creamsugar's post was The Order>200k, it was probably 200-225k (otherwise he would have probably put The Order<250k or something)
Click to expand...
I have no hard numbers to back it up with, but MH4 also seems like a game most known to the hardcore which knows about the Japanese market and its popularity there. They seem to me to be more likely to buy it digitally.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
I was close with my 6%. Amazon is actually around 5% of the US market as said by Aqua.

I hope after the next NPD we put far less credence on Amazon software placements as we do hardware.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Welfare said:
Because Amazon software sales can vary completely from other retailers, skewing results.
Click to expand...

Look at the results on the year. Bloodborne is directly behind a piece of hardware we know will have moved around 600k through March. It's not a blind guess based on monthly ranking of software only.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Sammy Samusu said:
Well, lower my prediction to 500k then, not that much of a difference.

The fact is, Monster Hunter is a handheld exclusive, in the west, and with close to non-existent promo. While Bloodborne is the new Souls game, marketed by Sony and on the most popular home console of the generation.

It should sell more than Monster Hunter, easily. What is your prediction?
Click to expand...

Different platform with a larger user base, different audiences, MH4 was advertised and the new hardware launch would of helped as well.

Considering DS2 sold <350k on PS360 in 3.5 weeks, I'm guessing Bloodborne will sell 300-400k. These games tend to have quite long legs as well.
 
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