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[Man God]

Bayonetta's not looking great sales wise, but we have no real idea what Sega expected out of them.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I'm so glad GoW Collection made it to the top 20. Hopefully more will jump on the idea

Holy Crap at GoW: Collection at no. 20. Reappearances, FTW!!

GOW Collection? never seen a PS3 game re-enter the top 20.

God of War Collection dropped 1/4 off the price (not a sale, but permanent drop). I picked it up because of that actually so I was +1 on the NPD.

 

[donny2112]

January 07 (post-leak ban, figures posted all over the internet):
Lost Planet (360) ~325k

~400K

Remember to combine it with the LE version. In Jan-07, NPD was still separating the regular and LE versions of games in their public lists. These days, they're combining them. ME2 is a combined number, so it makes sense to carry that on when doing past comparisons. Lost Planet's LE was like #11 for the month, IIRC. It sold great compared to the base game!

 

[DMeisterJ]

God of War Collection dropped 1/4 off the price (not a sale, but permanent drop). I picked it up because of that actually so I was +1 on the NPD.

Yeah I remember that. I still haven't hopped on though.

I'm hoping the good continued sales of the game continue to make these things happen. Hopefully some third party companies like Capcom and Konami are looking at this!

 

[chuckddd]

So 8 games published by Nintendo are in the op 20. Nintendo is by far the most successful software company in terms of sales and profi margins off those sales (Zelda and Galaxy are still $50) this gen. I don't know it's true but I've read that Nintendo makes more in profits than the next top 5 publishers combined and judging by how many multi million sellers they have this gen I wouldn't doubt it.

This got me thinking why publishers are not making more Nintendo type games. The reason I think Nintendo is so successful software wise (aside from making quality software) is that they have no direct competition. Nintendo is the only major publisher making the type of games that were popular in the 80s and early 90s (ya know light hearted, inclusive games that didn't take itself too seriously and you can play with your whole family).

Publishers are churning out one dark, gritty, bloody, vulgar, violent game after another. Earth to publishers: not every gamer is a teenage male who likes to play a violent badass! Why do they continue to compete for dollars from a smaller demographic? And factor in their huge budgets for these games it is even more of a reason to stop trying to ape Hollywood and try to compete with Nintendo. A game like New Super Mario Bros. Wii's budget (which will likely go on to sell at least 20 million which is 1 billion dollars in revenue) had to be a mere fraction of a game like Haze, Prototype, MSG 4, Dante's Inferno etc.

If I were the head of say EA I would put my top dev team to make a new IP - a platformer perhaps - that is very fun, light hearted, and inclusive. I would bet it would turn more profits than Dante's Inferno.

Seriously, publishers should take a close look on why Nintendo is so successful software wise and it is not just because they make high quality games it is also because of the TYPE of games.

Just my 2 cents.

I agree with you, except where you've already been corrected, but my question is this:

Has any dev ever tried to poach some Nintendo execs? If not, why not? EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Yeah I remember that. I still haven't hopped on though.

I'm hoping the good continued sales of the game continue to make these things happen. Hopefully some third party companies like Capcom and Konami are looking at this!

I have to say I wouldn't mind the trend of companies taking a lot of their games of a series and updating them and turning them into a collection disc so I hope as well that this becomes a trend.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Bayonetta's not looking great sales wise, but we have no real idea what Sega expected out of them.

Well, generally, a 1.1 million unit worldwide shipment and big ad campaign seems to me like it would certainly point toward the high side. But who knows, maybe they shipped that many because they could get retail to buy in so they're fine with whatever. Or maybe I'm smoking crack.

The only thing less surprising than Pachter's awful analysis is that it was cherry picked by Leigh.

 

[timetokill]

I agree with you, except where you've already been corrected, but my question is this:

Has any dev ever tried to poach some Nintendo execs? If not, why not? EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

Who would they poach? None of those companies could afford to give the big names a better deal than what they have.

Again, remember that even beyond company-wide profits, Nintendo makes a staggering amount of money per employee. It stands to reason that they have a pretty great setup.

 

[Johann]

I agree with you, except where you've already been corrected, but my question is this:

Has any dev ever tried to poach some Nintendo execs? If not, why not? EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

Japanese employees tend to have very strong ties with their company. It's unlikely that competitors, especially a Western company, would be able to convince talent to switch over unless the potential recruits had serious issues with their company. Nintendo would need to have have a lot financial instability or disagreements with its employees. If anything, it's amazing how Nintendo has been able to maintain so much of their top talent for so many years. We've seen Nintendo bend backwards to Sakurai since he is so valuable to them.

We still have the issue of competitors not spending big money on products that compete with Nintendo. The closest I can think of in recent memory would be LittleBigPlanet. Modnation Racers might be another title on the PS3 and PSP. A lot of big publishers spend the bare minimum on these games or they go out of their way to avoid directly competing with Nintendo. Viva Pinata, supposedly Microsoft's answer to Pokemon (with its own Saturday morning cartoon), ended up as this complex gardening simulation. Banjo Kazooie ended up as this convoluted vehicle platformer, which ended up bombing.

Whether is developer apathy ('If I make a kiddy game, my penis will fall off!"), belief that 2D platformers are dead ("What do you mean New Super Mario DS, which is still at full price years after release, outsold my game?", belief that Nintendo games are infused with the blood of Jesus Christ ("It's definitely voodoo magic. Not a mix of talent, executive foresight, and respect for the consumer."), or publisher conservative ("Durr, let's do that God of War game. Except with the most obnoxious marketing campaign ever.") there simply isn't a lot competition for Nintendo. It's interesting that we've seen more takes on Zelda recently rather than Mario when the former is a declining series and the latter has a second case of Mario mania. I think the biggest problem is that publishers view Nintendo games as software stupid casuals, which don't require a lot of thought when developing.

 

[Slavik81]

Agreed. America went through an anime phase that now seems to be over for the mainstream.

I think it's more that America got sick and tired of anime being so hard to work with. It was slow to come over, much more expensive than american shows, and hard to find.

Basically, it was a huge hassle trying to watch anime. The industry has noone to blame but themselves.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Who would they poach? None of those companies could afford to give the big names a better deal than what they have.

Again, remember that even beyond company-wide profits, Nintendo makes a staggering amount of money per employee. It stands to reason that they have a pretty great setup.

What? Why wouldn't you want to leave a multi-billion dollar profit earning company to stake your career on the "QUICK THROW THINGS OVERBOARD" sinking ship that is EA?

You'd be crazy not to!

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

What? Why wouldn't you want to leave a multi-billion dollar profit earning company to stake your career on the "QUICK THROW THINGS OVERBOARD" sinking ship that is EA?

You'd be crazy not to!

Because they had an epiphany and want to work on games for a system that can realize their vision

Spoiler

or as close to their vision as they can get since we're not talking PC's

. That's absolutely worth working for "throw things overboard sinking ships" and risking the unemployment queue's. Right?

 

[Mindlog]

I agree with you, except where you've already been corrected, but my question is this:

Has any dev ever tried to poach some Nintendo execs? If not, why not? EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

There comes a point where the name is the name.

Apple nuts being loyal to Apple.

Blizzard execs have left for other endeavors and that hasn't helped much. Plenty of other companies have offered far more innovative products that are comparably polished and that hasn't helped much.


*insert same old market maturity article that's been quoted a billion times, but people pretend it's insightful*

 

[HappyDad]

I agree with you, except where you've already been corrected, but my question is this:

Has any dev ever tried to poach some Nintendo execs? If not, why not? EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

You're missing the whole point. It's not about a person, not even persons. It's the team, its atmosphere and the workflow. Nintendo knows how to make their games, but most western devs will run away once they learn what it takes.

 

[Penguin]

Because they had an epiphany and want to work on games for a system that can realize their vision

Spoiler

or as close to their vision as they can get since we're not talking PC's

. That's absolutely worth working for "throw things overboard sinking ships" and risking the unemployment queue's. Right?

I don't know, think I would pretty happy if my vision reached 20 million people instead of 2-3. :lol

Now here is something I've been seeing more and more, why do people feel that the Wii is no longer in the same market/industry as the PS3/360?

 

[donny2112]

why do people feel that the Wii is no longer in the same market/industry as the PS3/360?

Makes them feel better about "their" industry?

 

[jibblypop]

Now here is something I've been seeing more and more, why do people feel that the Wii is no longer in the same market/industry as the PS3/360?

Only crazy people would think something like that. Dollars spent on videogames are dollars spent on videogames. If someone plays tetris on their iphone, new super mario on wii or call of duty on their 360, those are dollars spent towards video games and are absolutely part of the same industry.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Well, sure. But it's a bit odd to "blame" the pears when:
A) it was the pears' record-setting season last year that set the bar so high

pachter isn't discussing why sales grew to begin with, he's discussing why sales are off their high.

B) the 65 units of pear sales is the 3rd highest ever of any fruit

pachter isn't discussing whether pears are selling well, he's discussing why fruit sales are off their high.

C) anyone with a single brain cell knew it was coming

pachter basically directly states this when he talks about nintendo's obvious supply chain issues in january.

Also, if demand for pears is down, then shouldn't the apple and orange vendors be working to pick up the slack and make some gains?

pachter isn't discussing if sony or microsoft are winning or not, he's discussing overall hardware sales numbers for the month

the problem is that people are reading what pachter is saying and then ascribing some viewpoint to him that he hasn't presented or rather certainly not in this interview. all he's saying is that january 10 in aggregate is down significantly over january 09.

 

[charlequin]

the problem is that people are reading what pachter is saying and then ascribing some viewpoint to him that he hasn't presented or rather certainly not in this interview. all he's saying is that january 10 in aggregate is down significantly over january 09.

Right. The problem here is that people want to ascribe stupid fanboy notions of blame to Pachter's statement here: if he is explaining the market decline by pointing to a (real and numerically unambiguous) decline of Nintendo's sales that must somehow mean he is blaming them in some fundamentally mean-spirited and fanboyish way

In reality it is pretty straightforward to see that when the rest of the industry is not growing, that means that the industry can't grow unless Nintendo specifically accomplishes it. In a period where they do not do so it's plenty easy to spread blame all around to all the different companies that did not grow the industry in that period, i.e. all of them

 

[Riou]

Iwata's thoughts on NPD sales in December 2009: "We're gonna be so doomed next year"

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Iwata's thoughts on NPD sales in December 2009: "We're gonna be so doomed next year"

NSMBW will almost definitely still be in the top 10 (maybe top 5) and they'll have a couple front-loaded games out by then too (Metroid, SMG2, maybe Zelda.) They have nothing to worry about first-party-wise.

 

[HappyDad]

NSMBW will almost definitely still be in the top 10 (maybe top 5) and they'll have a couple front-loaded games out by then too (Metroid, SMG2, maybe Zelda.) They have nothing to worry about first-party-wise.

360/ps3 games have higher first impact than nintendo games, but nothing comes close when it comes to the longivity of them. Hack we see Mario Kart DS in top 10 list every now and then after how many years? It's just crazy.

 

[Version 3.0]

the problem is that people are reading what pachter is saying and then ascribing some viewpoint to him that he hasn't presented or rather certainly not in this interview. all he's saying is that january 10 in aggregate is down significantly over january 09.

No, that's not all he's saying. He's not just pointing out the obvious, that this year is down from last year. He says it's "disconcerting" and the magnitude of the drop "gives us pause". His analysis is simplistic TY vs LY with no consideration for last year's freak occurence that caused the high. He never mentions last year's record-breaking numbers, and calls this year's "outrageously low" when they're, in fact, the 3rd best of any January in history.

I do TY vs LY analysis all the time, and if the numbers are off more than expected, you have to dig deeper--into BOTH years, and maybe into previous years as well. Did last year's week/month host a holiday that fell in a different time period this year? Was there a new product launch or promotion? Was there a major disaster? If there's a reason for a discrepancy that's explainable, then you can dispense with the doom and gloom (or celebration).

In this case, last year's sales of Nintendo consoles--and therefore likely the complementary software sales--were heavily padded by overflow from December, when they were supply-constrained. It's easy to look and see last December was low, January picked up the slack and was high, and cancel the emergency. Get some more data, normalize the sales and re-evaluate.

But I guess that's too hard for a professional analyst.

 

[Mael]

I'm pretty sure all those press releases when Nintendo was breaking records were quite directly giving Nintendo credit. Now, it is absolutely true that their sales decline is responsible for the overall decline. Yes it looks like a decline because they shattered a bunch of records, but it is important to point out that they didn't sustain those record shattering numbers. Meanwhile the other systems remain there or thereabouts.

Naah they were too busy discussing why 3rd party can't succeed on Wii because of Nintendo
:lol
Heck between last npd and this one wasn't there a topic by patcher discussing that very thing here?

 

[CadetMahoney]

Bayonetta number is facepalm worthy.

anyone blamed piracy yet?

Does anyone think if they implemented multiplayer as a major factor (how I don't know) and did a voucher scheme which has a time limit before you use for extra missions etc it would result in more sales?

That's all the rage nowadays.

 

[Vilix]

EA should send a group of recruiters to Japan with one arm full of ho's and the other laden with blank checks. Make one NSMB-like success and you could fund a slew of crappy games for years.

Unlike the US there is quite of bit of company loyality in Japan.

 

[CadetMahoney]

I kind of hope all these game keep bombing. Speed up the death march to the bargain bin so I can save some money!

:lol best post yet.

 

[akilshohen]

I honestly thought Bayonetta would get more sales than Darksiders. The analyst's predictions seemed hyped its sales.

 

[The_lascar]

MARIO KART Wii

December 2008: 878 000
December 2009: 936 100 (+ 6,6 %)

January 2009: 292 000
January 2010: 310 900 (+ 6,5 %)

 

[Dan Yo]

Japanese employees tend to have very strong ties with their company. It's unlikely that competitors, especially a Western company, would be able to convince talent to switch over unless the potential recruits had serious issues with their company. Nintendo would need to have have a lot financial instability or disagreements with its employees. If anything, it's amazing how Nintendo has been able to maintain so much of their top talent for so many years. We've seen Nintendo bend backwards to Sakurai since he is so valuable to them.

We still have the issue of competitors not spending big money on products that compete with Nintendo. The closest I can think of in recent memory would be LittleBigPlanet. Modnation Racers might be another title on the PS3 and PSP. A lot of big publishers spend the bare minimum on these games or they go out of their way to avoid directly competing with Nintendo. Viva Pinata, supposedly Microsoft's answer to Pokemon (with its own Saturday morning cartoon), ended up as this complex gardening simulation. Banjo Kazooie ended up as this convoluted vehicle platformer, which ended up bombing.

Whether is developer apathy ('If I make a kiddy game, my penis will fall off!"), belief that 2D platformers are dead ("What do you mean New Super Mario DS, which is still at full price years after release, outsold my game?", belief that Nintendo games are infused with the blood of Jesus Christ ("It's definitely voodoo magic. Not a mix of talent, executive foresight, and respect for the consumer."), or publisher conservative ("Durr, let's do that God of War game. Except with the most obnoxious marketing campaign ever.") there simply isn't a lot competition for Nintendo. It's interesting that we've seen more takes on Zelda recently rather than Mario when the former is a declining series and the latter has a second case of Mario mania. I think the biggest problem is that publishers view Nintendo games as software stupid casuals, which don't require a lot of thought when developing.

There are plenty of Nintendo-wannabe bombs out there that you could've used as an example but Viva and Banjo are not one of them. Those were great games.

 

[Pachael]

There are plenty of Nintendo-wannabe bombs out there that you could've used as an example but Viva and Banjo are not one of them. Those were great games.

How about the Sega clones? ;p

 

[Kenka]

MARIO KART Wii

December 2008: 878 000
December 2009: 936 100 (+ 6,6 %)

January 2009: 292 000
January 2010: 310 900 (+ 6,5 %)

Mindblasting !

 

[Pureauthor]

There are plenty of Nintendo-wannabe bombs out there that you could've used as an example but Viva and Banjo are not one of them. Those were great games.

Eh, Viva Pinata made most of its sales on the back of bargain pricing and (I think) bundles.

Not sure about Banjo though.

 

[ZeoVGM]

It's not the art style. It's the blatant sexualization and fan-service. People don't want to play that shit.

:lol

 

[Celine]

Eh, Viva Pinata made most of its sales on the back of bargain pricing and (I think) bundles.

Not sure about Banjo though.

MS launched BK N&B at a discounted price of US$ 39.99.
Still when we got a NPD leak a year ago the LTD in the US for the game was just 154K.
Well still better than Viva Pinata 2's LTD ( 80 K) :lol

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

MARIO KART Wii

December 2008: 878 000
December 2009: 936 100 (+ 6,6 %)

January 2009: 292 000
January 2010: 310 900 (+ 6,5 %)

So not just matching the sales of the current crop of mega HD games but also increasing? Even more amazing. It's almost as if a rising user base helps with sales, don't mention this to any 3rd party developer, I wouldn't like to think what would happen to you if Nintendo found out you let the cat out of the bag.

I don't know, think I would pretty happy if my vision reached 20 million people instead of 2-3. :lol

Now here is something I've been seeing more and more, why do people feel that the Wii is no longer in the same market/industry as the PS3/360?

If we're going with personal preferences I have a thing for pushing weaker hardware beyond what most think it's capable of. I'm even fascinated by things like the Atari era guys figuring out how to get a couple extra sprites per screen and what not. So personally I'd say screw the sales and prefer figuring out how to make people say "wow" for a Wii game, its easy on the PS360 and even easier on the PC, no challenge.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

"The magnitude of the decline in the face of a solid software lineup gives us pause," he says, chalking up some of the large decline to "lackluster" Wii sales -- which he blames on supply constraints. Nintendo recently conceded that maintaining Wii inventory has been a 'challenge' recently.

Well, I guess they could've just spread that December supply across December, January, and February--they'd still end up with a significantly higher December-February total this year.

 

[Barrett2]

Decent number for MAG at #13.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Decent number for MAG at #13.

Does it take significantly less money to make a multiplayer only shooter vs. one with a single player campaign?

 

[poppabk]

which is responsible for the decline in overall fruit sales between 08 and 09

But he is talking about software being down and then blames it on Nintendo because of their lower hardware figures. So it is more like:
January 08;
Apple corer 20 units
Orange peeler 24 units
Pear corer 120 units

January 09;
Apple corer 21 units
Orange peeler 23 units
Pear corer 65 units

Who is responsible for lower fruit sales?

 

[NIGHT-]

:lol Perfect.

 

[gerg]

But he is talking about software being down and then blames it on Nintendo because of their lower hardware figures. So it is more like:
January 08;
Apple corer 20 units
Orange peeler 24 units
Pear corer 120 units

January 09;
Apple corer 21 units
Orange peeler 23 units
Pear corer 65 units

Who is responsible for lower fruit sales?

That overall software is down because Nintendo's hardware is down makes sense when considering that there aren't as many new hardware-owners who are then going to buy software.

If there are fewer corers and peelers being sold then it's going to be likely that less fruit will be sold for people to core and peel in the first place.

Edit: To put it simply, you need to have hardware before you can buy software. Less hardware = less software that can be bought. (I realise that the "need" isn't exactly true, but I think that the number of people padding out their gaming libraries before owning a gaming console is minimal.)

 

[jcm]

No, that's not all he's saying. He's not just pointing out the obvious, that this year is down from last year. He says it's "disconcerting" and the magnitude of the drop "gives us pause". His analysis is simplistic TY vs LY with no consideration for last year's freak occurence that caused the high. He never mentions last year's record-breaking numbers, and calls this year's "outrageously low" when they're, in fact, the 3rd best of any January in history.

I do TY vs LY analysis all the time, and if the numbers are off more than expected, you have to dig deeper--into BOTH years, and maybe into previous years as well. Did last year's week/month host a holiday that fell in a different time period this year? Was there a new product launch or promotion? Was there a major disaster? If there's a reason for a discrepancy that's explainable, then you can dispense with the doom and gloom (or celebration).

In this case, last year's sales of Nintendo consoles--and therefore likely the complementary software sales--were heavily padded by overflow from December, when they were supply-constrained. It's easy to look and see last December was low, January picked up the slack and was high, and cancel the emergency. Get some more data, normalize the sales and re-evaluate.

But I guess that's too hard for a professional analyst.

Outside of the fantastic December, the Wii has been way down YoY for nearly a year. He's a stock analyst. He assume the huge profits from the healthy sales are already priced into the stock, so he wants to see growth.

These numbers are from vgsales wikia. Hopefully they're accurate.

              2008     2009                                                       
January     274000     679200     147.88%                                         
February    432000     753000      74.30%                                                  
March       721000     601000     -16.64%                                                  
April       714200     340000     -52.39%                                                  
May         675100     289500     -57.11%                                                  
June        666700     361700     -45.74%                                                  
July        555000     252500     -54.50%                                                  
August      453000     277400     -38.76%                                                  
September   667000     462800     -30.61%                                                 
October     803000     506900     -36.87%                                                 
November   2040000     1260000    -38.23%                                                  
December   2150000     3810000     77.20%

Edit: Added chart

 

[Relix]

2009 mostly sucked gamewise...

Here comes the best year of the gen though

 

[Mael]

Outside of the fantastic December, the Wii has been way down YoY for nearly a year. He's a stock analyst. He assume the huge profits from the healthy sales are already priced into the stock, so he wants to see growth.

That would be believable if he wasn't shoving down our throat his WiiHD garbage for more than a year now

 

[Ulairi]

Outside of the fantastic December, the Wii has been way down YoY for nearly a year. He's a stock analyst. He assume the huge profits from the healthy sales are already priced into the stock, so he wants to see growth.

These numbers are from vgsales wikia. Hopefully they're accurate

He's not a stock analyst. He's a sector analyst. Nintendo is not a growth stock and hasn't been one for years.

 

[BishopLamont]

Bayonetta did pretty well. People are over analysing why it didn't sell, it's a fighter/brawler, that's why. Its like how people think Madworld and stuff from Sega didn't sell more because of this and that, when in the end they're all niche games.

 

[Curufinwe]

Bayonetta did pretty well. People are over analysing why it didn't sell, it's a fighter/brawler, that's why. Its like how people think Madworld and stuff from Sega didn't sell more because of this and that, when in the end they're all niche games.

I still think it's fair to be disappointed when the closest game to it, DMC 4, did 528,700 in sales in its first month of release.

 

[BishopLamont]

I still think it's fair to be disappointed when the closest game to it, DMC 4, did 528,700 in sales in its first month of release.

Which one is the known brand?

 

[Dash Kappei]

MARIO KART Wii

December 2008: 878 000
December 2009: 936 100 (+ 6,6 %)

January 2009: 292 000
January 2010: 310 900 (+ 6,5 %)

Mindblowing, thanks for posting.
Do we have any precedents of something similar happening to any other game/s in the last decade? I'd love to know.