Support NeoGAF

[perfectchaos007]

Cosign

I doubt it for PSP though...I heard Sony will physically and financial threaten anyone who publicly publishes PSP numbers

:lol :lol

talk about damage control! jeez sony...

 

[[Nintex]]

- Sony is fucked no matter what

The main competition, Apple and Samsung are beating the shit out of Sony at the moment. Nintendo could very well take their 3D lunch and run with it and ever since this generation started Microsoft has been bleeding them dry. Almost every third party publisher seems to lose money but they're still quite happy with the status quo of the US market that Microsoft maintains.

 

[Owzers]

Can Sony really outsell 360 in the U.S. off the backs of the same games that have them in 3rd place now? This generation is so boring, it's just the same games every two years. And as soon as Sony drops price, Microsoft can do the same thing.

 

[apana]

Cosign

I doubt it for PSP though...I heard Sony will physically and financial threaten anyone who publicly publishes PSP numbers

Edit: the fact that Nintendo has yet to comment is a bad sign. I really don't think Wii can last another year and I wouldn't even be surprised if Zelda massively undersells; as in only 1.2 million lifetime NA sales.

Zelda won't massively undersell and yes Wii is slowing down but Nintendo for the most part doesn't seem to be that concerned.

 

[RSTEIN]

.

 

[BishopLamont]

They expected Just Dance 2 to sell 1M and CoD 1.5M in January? the fuck?

 

[TheOddOne]

Of course they do. Not saying it's the case with Move, but they do.

Unless by "doing ok" you mean losing money.

No, a company always brings a product if it knows that its a possibility that it might be a runaway succes.

Ofcourse a company is gonna say "we are happy with x total", but in truth they expected way better results.

 

[RSTEIN]

/

 

[LosDaddie]

And as soon as Sony drops price, Microsoft can do the same thing.

Hopefully MS does that. If the HD twins both get a price cut this year, the industry will have a good shot at YoY growth.

 

[BishopLamont]

Hopefully MS does that. If the HD twins both get a price cut this year, the industry will have a good shot at YoY growth.

Price cutting will eat into the industry's revenue even more, any increased software won't make up for the loss since the generation is winding down.

 

[Future]

They need some MOVE exclusive killer app software. Look at Dance Central on that sales chart. Thats the kind of shit Sony needs.

MOVE "compatable" software? Worthless. 90% of people will continue using the controller. Nintendo also showed this logic work with the Wii..you need to FORCE users to try the new stuff. When given only the option, they will continue with what they are familiar with. Until they bring some software this thing will remain just a diversion some people may purchase if they have money to burn. And no, the existing MOVE only software is not unique enough to do the job

Sony as a whole need to revamp their strategy. Everything new they have attempted has failed to separate the PS3 from the 360, besides having an initial ridiculous price tag slowing sales. When it comes to online, game diversity, motion penetration, even avatars..M$ has them beat in every area. A few games here and there may set it apart, but M$ has good exclusives as well. Home may bring in a few bucks but absolutely no one will buy their PS3 because of HOME. For those without online connections it is pointless as well

One potential advantage they had was the PSP, as M$ hasnt attempted anything in the portable arena. But after years there has been no interesting link between the 2. Arguably, M$ has them beat already in this arena as well with their Xbox Live connection to Windows phones. The NGP announcement brought no interesting link into the Playstation family either.

 

[RSTEIN]

.

 

[[Nintex]]

They need some MOVE exclusive killer app software. Look at Dance Central on that sales chart. Thats the kind of shit Sony needs.

MOVE "compatable" software? Worthless. 90% of people will continue using the controller. Nintendo also showed this logic work with the Wii..you need to FORCE users to try the new stuff. When given only the option, they will continue with what they are familiar with. Until they bring some software this thing will remain just a diversion some people may purchase if they have money to burn. And no, the existing MOVE only software is not unique enough to do the job

Sony as a whole need to revamp their strategy. Everything new they have attempted has failed to separate the PS3 from the 360, besides having an initial ridiculous price tag slowing sales. When it comes to online, game diversity, motion penetration, even avatars..M$ has them beat in every area. A few games here and there may set it apart, but M$ has good exclusives as well. Home may bring in a few bucks but absolutely no one will buy their PS3 because of HOME. For those without online connections it is pointless as well

One potential advantage they had was the PSP, as M$ hasnt attempted anything in the portable arena. But after years there has been no interesting link between the 2. Arguably, M$ has them beat already in this arena as well with their Xbox Live connection to Windows phones. The NGP announcement brought no interesting link into the Playstation family either.

MS has them beat when it comes to $ in their name too.

 

[TheOddOne]

They need some MOVE exclusive killer app software. Look at Dance Central on that sales chart. Thats the kind of shit Sony needs.

MOVE "compatable" software? Worthless. 90% of people will continue using the controller. Nintendo also showed this logic work with the Wii..you need to FORCE users to try the new stuff. When given only the option, they will continue with what they are familiar with. Until they bring some software this thing will remain just a diversion some people may purchase if they have money to burn. And no, the existing MOVE only software is not unique enough to do the job

Sony as a whole need to revamp their strategy. Everything new they have attempted has failed to separate the PS3 from the 360, besides having an initial ridiculous price tag slowing sales. When it comes to online, game diversity, motion penetration, even avatars..M$ has them beat in every area. A few games here and there may set it apart, but M$ has good exclusives as well. Home may bring in a few bucks but absolutely no one will buy their PS3 because of HOME. For those without online connections it is pointless as well

One potential advantage they had was the PSP, as M$ hasnt attempted anything in the portable arena. But after years there has been no interesting link between the 2. Arguably, M$ has them beat already in this arena as well with their Xbox Live connection to Windows phones. The NGP announcement brought no interesting link into the Playstation family either.

Subtle!

 

[shintoki]

They were stupid for 2 reasons: 1) they essentially copied a competitor's accessory (albeit doing a better job with it overall)

Saying they did a better job is disingenuous to Nintendo. It was a lifeless clone, with about 4-5 years of technology improvement between creations. They shouldn't even be in the same generation.

2nd, It's the software that sold the controller. Not the other way around. The controller, while creative on it's own. Would have just been a novel trick if it wasn't for Wii Sports and Nintendo backing it.

 

[JoeBoy101]

We believe there is a 50/50 chance that GTA V will make it into the FY12 period

The fuck are they basing that on? Last I heard, Rockstar is on Noire, Agent and isn't on anything that can reasonable called GTA V. Am I missing something?

 

[CrunchinJelly]

What are the chances of NBA 2K10 vs 2K11 sales?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

We believe there is a 50/50 chance that GTA V will make it into the FY12 period

They are delusional if they truly think this. This is almost lying to your subscribers with how bad this prediction is. uDraw really dropped off, I think THQ essentially dies this year. de Blob 2 and the new Red Faction aren't in the top 3,500 on the Amazon sales charts and de Blob 2 isn't even a full priced game.

 

[CadetMahoney]

The PS3 isn't even sub-300 yet. For some this generation hasn't even started. If it's already over, it has been a completely underwhelming generation.

Looking at where the big 3 were the previous gen this gen has been the opposite of boring tbh.

 

[RSTEIN]

Pachter is delusional if he thinks this. This is almost lying to your subscribers with how bad this prediction is. uDraw really dropped off, I think THQ essentially dies this year. de Blob 2 and the new Red Faction aren't in the top 3,500 on the Amazon sales charts and de Blob 2 isn't even a full priced game.

wasn't Patcher - another firm.

 

[Archie]

Guitar Hero (and other Hero music games) sales were down 56% from last year.

Rock Band sales were down 80% to $2 million.

RIP plastic instrument genre.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

wasn't Patcher - another firm.

I see, misread because you were talking about Pachter's firm earlier.

 

[RSTEIN]

uDraw really dropped off, I think THQ essentially dies this year.

Supply constraints was cited as the reason.

 

[Mileena]

RIP plastic instrument genre.

Pretty sure this was clear when fucking Green Day got their own game. RIP

 

[theBishop]

Pachter is delusional if he thinks this. This is almost lying to your subscribers with how bad this prediction is. uDraw really dropped off, I think THQ essentially dies this year. de Blob 2 and the new Red Faction aren't in the top 3,500 on the Amazon sales charts and de Blob 2 isn't even a full priced game.

You think Homefront will bomb? I agree THQ is struggling, but this is the first year where it looks like they're turning things around. Hope they don't die first.

 

[Archie]

Pretty sure this was clear when fucking Green Day got their own game. RIP

But, but, but The Beatles Rock Band was the most important game ever made. lol

 

[Nirolak]

Updated the OP.

Have to head out for five hours though.

Thanks RSTEIN!

 

[CadetMahoney]

Price cutting will eat into the industry's revenue even more, any increased software won't make up for the loss since the generation is winding down.

In that case I wouldn't like to be Sony. . . MS doesn't need a price cut looking at trends.

 

[Kafel]

uDraw Studio & Tablet = 26k

Well it had a good run.

I've read THQ wanted to release it on other platforms though.

 

[Meier]

I think dying is a strong word here for a system still selling 300k+ in January. That said, I agree -- they should have another iteration ready very soon if they are wise, which they are, right?

Dying might have been a bit strong as the sales are still decent enough but down over 30% from last year when that was already down from the previous year is an ugly and unacceptable stat. Sales continue to be terrible in Japan as well. Lowering the price should help spur sales to new consumers but releasing a slim/modified version will spur new sales to non-owners and owners alike which obviously would be a preferable route. A re-design almost always results in cheaper manufacturing costs to boot.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Supply constraints was cited as the reason.

Maybe that's the case, but I'm doubtful.

Dying might have been a bit strong as the sales are still decent enough but down over 30% from last year when that was already down from the previous year is an ugly and unacceptable stat. Sales continue to be terrible in Japan as well. Lowering the price should help spur sales to new consumers but releasing a slim/modified version will spur new sales to non-owners and owners alike which obviously would be a preferable route. A re-design almost always results in cheaper manufacturing costs to boot.

There was a $20 price drop this month. I don't see how they could modify the Wii so a new version would be more desirable.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

The fuck are they basing that on? Last I heard, Rockstar is on Noire, Agent and isn't on anything that can reasonable called GTA V. Am I missing something?

The RDR team.

 

[[Nintex]]

You think Homefront will bomb? I agree THQ is struggling, but this is the first year where it looks like they're turning things around. Hope they don't die first.

I'd say THQ joins EA and Take2 joins Activision Blizzard. We're going to see more mergers and closures in the future.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The RDR team.

RDR took more than six years to make, they can't turn out and make GTA V in under two.

 

[JaxJag]

The RDR team.

I'm pretty sure LA Noire isn't even being made by a Rockstar developer even though it's being published under Rockstar.

Edit: This is the LA Noire team.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_Bondi

Obviously Rockstar North is working on GTA5.

 

[JoeBoy101]

RDR took more than six years to make, they can't turn out and make GTA V in under two.

And given the collective chaos that was the development process of RDR, I'm not sure they could recreate it. That's not to say I wouldn't be interested in GTA V, just that imagining it in FY2012 is really pushing it if nothing has been announced by Rockstar already.

I'm pretty sure LA Noire isn't even being made by a Rockstar developer even though it's being published under Rockstar.

Edit: This is the LA Noire team.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_Bondi

I knew that and should have remembered. I stand corrected.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Red Dead still has pretty good legs.

 

[Deleted member 284]

From Wedbush

Call of Duty: Black Ops = 0.5 x 1.5 = 750,000

Just Dance 2 sold over half of our estimate of 1 million units.

Can we deduce that JD2 was the top selling SKU for January now?

 

[[Nintex]]

And given the collective chaos that was the development process of RDR, I'm not sure they could recreate it. That's not to say I wouldn't be interested in GTA V, just that imagining it in FY2012 is really pushing it if nothing has been announced by Rockstar already.



I knew that and should have remembered. I stand corrected.

What about Rockstar Leeds?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

What about Rockstar Leeds?

They were marginalized into a porting team after the handheld GTAs kept selling less each installment.

 

[FrankT]

RDR took more than six years to make, they can't turn out and make GTA V in under two.

Closer to 3 now and I'm not sure when TT's fiscal 2012 ends, but that would be closer to 4 if into next year. Also two very different teams.

 

[BishopLamont]

Well it had a good run.

I've read THQ wanted to release it on other platforms though.

It's a casual game that experienced stock problems, which sold mainly on the backs of the holiday season, it's not a surprise to see it didn't bounce back up as much as you'd think.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

RDR took more than six years to make, they can't turn out and make GTA V in under two.

But the engine is now done so half the game is already made.

 

[theBishop]

They need some MOVE exclusive killer app software. Look at Dance Central on that sales chart. Thats the kind of shit Sony needs.

I don't understand why no one has made just a (used to be) typical 3d platformer/adventure with motion-based puzzle solving. Even on Wii, there's a drought for the kinds of colorful 3d adventures which dominated on N64.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

But the engine is now done so half the game is already made.

No, it's not. Besides, a short dev cycle would mean near immediate crunch time work which would pretty much drive half the team to suicide after how badly they were treated during the last two years of RDR's dev cycle.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Given the reported of massive amounts of crunchtime required to make RDR I'd expect the team to be quite burnt out and so I wouldn't expect a major followup title all that soon.

 

[LosDaddie]

but releasing a slim/modified version will spur new sales to non-owners and owners alike which obviously would be a preferable route. A re-design almost always results in cheaper manufacturing costs to boot.

Nah, I don't believe so. The Wii is already "slim" enough, it's quiet, and it's always had low power consumption. I don't see a re-design doing anything for the Wii.

IMO, all it needs is a price cut. And maybe some new colors.

RDR took more than six years to make, they can't turn out and make GTA V in under two.

It's really not that much of a stretch, if you think about it. R* got the engine-building out of the way with GTA IV and they could've had a (small) team working on GTA V ever since IV shipped.

NOw, I don't think we'll see GTA V this year, but I could def. see the game coming out Q1 2012

 

[jamesinclair]

uDraw Studio & Tablet = 26k


Retail GAF, is there a supply constraint?

 

[Kifimbo]

From Wedbush

There were 22 games that sold over 100,000 units in January, vs. our estimate of 16 games and 18 last year.

Call of Duty: Black Ops sold half of our estimate of 1.5 million units
Call of Duty: Black Ops = 0.5 x 1.5 = 750,000

[Just Dance 2 sold over half of our estimate of 1 million units.
Just Dance 2 = 500,000 (although we don't know what "over half" means. Unsure about this one?

Whoever made those predictions should be fired. 1.5 millions in January ? When MW2 sold less than 600k in January 2010 ? Really ?

 

[Ridley327]

uDraw Studio & Tablet = 26k


Retail GAF, is there a supply constraint?

:looks at his warehouse backroom, notices at least 3 dozen uDraw bundles:

Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

In all seriousness, uDraw seems like the sort of thing that sells really well over the holiday season and then no one gives two shits about it, just like Cabela and Rapala bundles.