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[frizby]

If anything, it would make more sense for you to say that the Xbox One is doing fine in America considering that the Xbox One is around 1.95M while the PS4 is around 2.20M in overall NA sales. The Xbox One would more than likely be higher than the PS4 in NA sales if it was the same price or cheaper.

Don't think it's doing all that well in territories in which the Xbox brand isn't that popular (i.e.: many other places around the world).

The first part of my post was serious. The second part was complete sarcasm, which apparently missed the mark.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The 3DS is around 40M worldwide. Those are good numbers. They're not DS style great numbers but they are good numbers. 16% decline is modest but it is what you'd expect. Very clearly price elasticity comes into play.

If this was true then 3DS sales would be zero. But they're not zero because people do know the difference.

A price cut doesn't need to do much, they only need an increase of 10-20% to be comparable to last year. 2DS is in many ways a seperate product, even the name gives it away, 2DS is less than 3DS. Just like how MS didn't want Xbox 2 to be less than PS3 so they tried to become more than PS3 and went for Xbox 360.

I'm not sure why you're posting a global number when we're talking about the US market, where it stands at around 11.6M, which, you're right, aren't NDS numbers, nor GBA numbers. But are pretty similar to PSP numbers, which were never really considered good numbers outside of its initial launch period.

By the same rationale, the red and blue 2DSs wouldn't have been among the system's top SKUs in November if there wasn't a segment of people who do not care about its "gimpedness." It plays the same software and the 3D USP was never something that the market gave a crap about.

You posit that this generation of Nintendo's handhelds has reached saturation at the $169 price point; the 2DS is Nintendo's response. It's designed to be an entry-level system for the price conscious. Basically you're proposing that what's causing the system's decline is that there's a segment of consumers who are simultaneously price-conscious and too proud (?) to buy the budget SKU, and are thus holding out for a $20 price drop?

And even under the scenario that such a price drop provides a sustained boost such that it does an 120K NPD month, that isn't particularly "good" anyway.

 

[Majmun]

Wait, Ps4 is still out of stock on Amazon? Can't believe it lol

February NPD should be interesting as well. Although I already know how that one will turn out.

Sony's Ps4 seems to be the only player left in the console business. I don't know if this is a good thing or not.

 

[FiggyCal]

PS4 is out of stock, but that could be because they're prepping to launch in Japan and need more units over there. NPD's will be lower for Feb and people will freak out again.

 

[dolemite]

The PS4s that came in stock on Amazon yesterday are already sold out again. Thirst is still real. They got in over 1,000. http://amzn.com/B00BGA9WK2 I don't think consoles are hurting as a whole. The issue is overpriced last gen consoles. PS4 sold every unit that came out in January and is continually sold out nationwide. That's without a major compelling title out yet...

PS4 has FIFA14, Battlefield 4, CoD:Ghost, AC4. These are the biggest franchises of today.

 

[RyanPierre]

Speaking of PS4 supply issues, I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but the graphics for the Xbox One/PS4 pages on walmart.com are slightly different from each other. Guess which one says "Hurry, it won't last long!"

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Speaking of PS4 supply issues, I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but the graphics for the Xbox One/PS4 pages on walmart.com are slightly different from each other. Guess which one says "Hurry, it won't last long!"

Perhaps Walmart is referring to the day one editions

Walmart must have heard the Amazon buy-out rumour.

Or this

 

[Knoxcore]

Needless to say, Sony will surpass their 6 million shipped PS4 units by March 31. They may beat that projection by a month. I'm encouraged that Sony is making moves to make their company healthy as a whole.

It will be interesting to see March's numbers. I think that's our next key month with Titanfall and Infamous. You can almost always count on an FPS in the US and a popular PS franchise.

 

[travisbickle]

Speaking of PS4 supply issues, I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but the graphics for the Xbox One/PS4 pages on walmart.com are slightly different from each other. Guess which one says "Hurry, it won't last long!"

Walmart must have heard the Amazon buy-out rumour.

 

[heidern]

I'm not sure why you're posting a global number when we're talking about the US market, where it stands at around 11.6M, which, you're right, aren't NDS numbers, nor GBA numbers. But are pretty similar to PSP numbers, which were never really considered good numbers outside of its initial launch period.

11.6M in the US is a good number. In fact it's a very good number. It's not an amazing number like the DS managed but it is very good. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. From the ecosystem side we can see there are lots of games for the 3DS including big games. From the business side we can see sales are good and that it will outsell the SNES and probably NES. Less than Gameboy lines managed perhaps, but selling less than products that were massive successes doesn't make you a failure. You can still be a success in your own right which the 3DS is.

By the same rationale, the red and blue 2DSs wouldn't have been among the system's top SKUs in November if there wasn't a segment of people who do not care about its "gimpedness." It plays the same software and the 3D USP was never something that the market gave a crap about.

There's a segment of the market that don't care about the 2DS gimpedness and there's a segment of the market that do care.
There's a segment of the market that don't care about the 3D USP and there's a segment of the market that does care.

Basically you're proposing that what's causing the system's decline is that there's a segment of consumers who are simultaneously price-conscious and too proud (?) to buy the budget SKU, and are thus holding out for a $20 price drop?

I'm proposing that there's a segment of consumers who are simultaneously price-conscious and not interested in the budget/gimped SKU. They want a 3DS but $169 is too much for them but $149 would be acceptable. Some of them also associate $169 with $200 and are put off but seeing sub $150 will come on board. Seeing as 3DS targets children who have strictly limited budgets it's also not just price consciousness but price necessity.

 

[FLEABttn]

Pretty sure very few of the early adopters picked up the 20GB SKU. If you're going to buy bleeding-edge, you bleed, money. Thing didn't even have wifi (not that any internet based PC or console should use that for gaming anyhow) and they pulled it off the market pretty fast, no?

If you trust Sony PR, 9 out of every 10 PS3s sold in the launch window in the USA were 60 gig units. So it was effectively a $589 console...and it still outsold Xbone in like Januaries.

 

[Yoshi]

Yes, because the atrocity of war and the choice - the struggle, as you would paint it - between purchasing a piece of software in digital or physical format are directly comparable. Holy hyperbole Batman. Maybe next we can have some Hitler and Lady Gaga parallels drawn by your masterful mind.

I actually made this comparison because demanding that people appreciate what they should and do not like is something I only know of war-propaganda. Not because I think having to stop playing video games because I cannot get them via a distribution model I can agree to is comparable with war in itself. Moreover, comparing two things regarding one aspect (in this case: Demand of appreciation instead of rejection of something you don't like) does not mean equalling it in all regards and facets.

 

[Yaoibot]

I actually made this comparison because demanding that people appreciate what they should and do not like is something I only know of war-propaganda. Not because I think having to stop playing video games because I cannot get them via a distribution model I can agree to is comparable with war in itself. Moreover, comparing two things regarding one aspect (in this case: Demand of appreciation instead of rejection of something you don't like) does not mean equalling it in all regards and facets.

Nothing I said was "demanding", its a reality and a hard one for people to swallow, but that's the direction we're headed in. Personally, I will always strive to have some 'little black box' (or PC in a box) with a simplified OS that's primary function is to play games that sits under my TV. I have no idea how realistic that vision is but if I cling to the set ideal of what 'console gaming' is, I know that my options for experiencing digital worlds will grow smaller and smaller as time goes on. Perhaps leaving me with no options at all.

And trying to further justify or correlate the dire and painful choices, or the depth and meaning of said choices, one makes in a time of war to any the choices one makes with their pastime of leisure only makes you look more and more dissociated from reality. Its a terrible analogy, and you're really reaching to make it stick. It won't, so pick something better or just drop it.

If I had to guess, you made that comparison because to you, the shifts in this industry probably feel like a war upon something that you are clearly too emotionally invested in. They're video-games, not holocaust survivors, we all love them here and like to discuss the pleasure we have with them but there's no need to jump head first into the crazy end of the pool.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

If you trust Sony PR, 9 out of every 10 PS3s sold in the launch window in the USA were 60 gig units. So it was effectively a $589 console...and it still outsold Xbone in like Januaries.

Comparing January sales for the PS3 to the Bone is not a valid one. The PS3 had only sold through 650k by the end of December 2006, the Bone sold through 1.8m by the end of 2013. The level of latent demand for the Bone is naturally lower than it was for the PS3 back in January 2007 as it sold over a million units more than the PS3 did at launch.

 

[jvm]

Pretty sure very few of the early adopters picked up the 20GB SKU. If you're going to buy bleeding-edge, you bleed, money. Thing didn't even have wifi (not that any internet based PC or console should use that for gaming anyhow) and they pulled it off the market pretty fast, no?

Anecdotally, I never saw a 20GB unit in the wild. I'm sure they were out there, because a friend of mine got one at launch, as I recall.

If you trust Sony PR, 9 out of every 10 PS3s sold in the launch window in the USA were 60 gig units. So it was effectively a $589 console...and it still outsold Xbone in like Januaries.

That's in line with figures I've seen. The ASP of the PS3 at launch was supposed to be between $570 and $600, and moved toward the high end as the 20GB basically disappeared.

I suspect both the PS4 and XBO have ASPs right at their basic configuration prices ($400 and $500, respectively).

 

[sörine]

With the trajectory Nintendo's systems are on I sort of wonder if we might see price drops or better value adding bundles in May to go with the big releases then (Mario Kart, Kirby, Mario Golf)? 3DS is overdue at this point.

 

[FLEABttn]

The level of latent demand for the Bone is naturally lower than it was for the PS3 back in January 2007 as it sold over a million units more than the PS3 did at launch.

Nevermind, CosmicQueso explained this in the other thread.

 

[Calibus]

He never left IMO.

 

[Hero]

Any reason why Cream didn't give us so much sugar this month? I mean surely there has to be some good numbers to be found for some software.

 

[goonergaz]

PS4 has FIFA14, Battlefield 4, CoD:Ghost, AC4. These are the biggest franchises of today.

apparently many folk don't include cross-plat games for some reason lol

 

[Mutanthands]

11.6M in the US is a good number. In fact it's a very good number. It's not an amazing number like the DS managed but it is very good. It doesn't have to be all or nothing. From the ecosystem side we can see there are lots of games for the 3DS including big games. From the business side we can see sales are good and that it will outsell the SNES and probably NES. Less than Gameboy lines managed perhaps, but selling less than products that were massive successes doesn't make you a failure. You can still be a success in your own right which the 3DS is.



There's a segment of the market that don't care about the 2DS gimpedness and there's a segment of the market that do care.
There's a segment of the market that don't care about the 3D USP and there's a segment of the market that does care.


I'm proposing that there's a segment of consumers who are simultaneously price-conscious and not interested in the budget/gimped SKU. They want a 3DS but $169 is too much for them but $149 would be acceptable. Some of them also associate $169 with $200 and are put off but seeing sub $150 will come on board. Seeing as 3DS targets children who have strictly limited budgets it's also not just price consciousness but price necessity.

Look at it this way: 3DS's total sales are decent, but below Nintendo expectations. The 3DS is currently the main revenue earner for Nintendo. Selling lower than expectations means less revenue. A price cut means less revenue, that is not necessarily going to be offset from the resultant increased software sales. With it looking like there will be 3 straight years of losses, bringing less revenue than planned is bad news, irregardless of how decent the total sales may be by other criteria.

Edit: edited for clarity.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Any reason why Cream didn't give us so much sugar this month? I mean surely there has to be some good numbers to be found for some software.

He's probably finding them for the people who are paying him to do so.

 

[sörine]

Any reason why Cream didn't give us so much sugar this month? I mean surely there has to be some good numbers to be found for some software.

Not much in terms of new releases. We got TRDE and WFU which are probably the most notable.

 

[Artorias]

Nothing I said was "demanding", its a reality and a hard one for people to swallow, but that's the direction we're headed in. Personally, I will always strive to have some 'little black box' (or PC in a box) with a simplified OS that's primary function is to play games that sits under my TV. I have no idea how realistic that vision is but if I cling to the set ideal of what 'console gaming' is, I know that my options for experiencing digital worlds will grow smaller and smaller as time goes on. Perhaps leaving me with no options at all.

And trying to further justify or correlate the dire and painful choices, or the depth and meaning of said choices, one makes in a time of war to any the choices one makes with their pastime of leisure only makes you look more and more dissociated from reality. Its a terrible analogy, and you're really reaching to make it stick. It won't, so pick something better or just drop it.

If I had to guess, you made that comparison because to you, the shifts in this industry probably feel like a war upon something that you are clearly too emotionally invested in. They're video-games, not holocaust survivors, we all love them here and like to discuss the pleasure we have with them but there's no need to jump head first into the crazy end of the pool.

Good lord, is this guy for real?

 

[jcm]

Look at it this way: 3DS sales are decent, but below Nintendo expectations. The 3DS is currently the main revenue earner for Nintendo. Selling lower than expectations means less revenue. A price cut means less revenue, that is not necessarily going to be offset from the resultant increased software sales. With it looking like there will be 3 straight years of losses, bringing less revenue than planned is bad news, irregardless of how decent the sales may be by other criteria.

I guess you're talking about the LTD when you say decent? Because this month they were just plain bad. Here is the list platforms that have sold fewer than 100K in January:

January 2005 - none
January 2006 - GCN 66K
               XBX 89K
January 2007 - GCN 34K
January 2008 - none
January 2009 - none
January 2010 - PS2 42K
January 2011 - PSP 80K
January 2012 - none
January 2013 - WIU: 57K
               PSV: 35K

For the 3DS to be below 100K in January during the prime of its life is really bad.

 

[Yoshi]

And trying to further justify or correlate the dire and painful choices, or the depth and meaning of said choices, one makes in a time of war to any the choices one makes with their pastime of leisure only makes you look more and more dissociated from reality. Its a terrible analogy, and you're really reaching to make it stick. It won't, so pick something better or just drop it.

I was not correlating any choices or meaning of said choices, I was strictly speaking about the rhetoric. I do not intend to make it stick with anything, I just explain what I meant and what I didn't mean. Obviously this didn't work, considering you're still refering to the depth of choices in war, although I wasn't speaking about that at all.

If I had to guess, you made that comparison because to you, the shifts in this industry probably feel like a war upon something that you are clearly too emotionally invested in. They're video-games, not holocaust survivors, we all love them here and like to discuss the pleasure we have with them but there's no need to jump head first into the crazy end of the pool.

Good thing you don't have to guess, because if I felt at war with anything, it'd be religion, which I deem way more threating to more important aspects of my life than my pastime. For now, phone games, pc games and browser games almost never hit what I want from games and the games I want to play are almost in all instances available at retail for consoles or dedicated handhelds. So I don't "fear" losing my hobby all too much yet.

 

[Mutanthands]

I guess you're talking about the LTD when you say decent? Because this month they were just plain bad. Here is the list platforms that have sold fewer than 100K in January:

January 2005 - none
January 2006 - GCN 66K
               XBX 89K
January 2007 - GCN 34K
January 2008 - none
January 2009 - none
January 2010 - PS2 42K
January 2011 - PSP 80K
January 2012 - none
January 2013 - WIU: 57K
               PSV: 35K

For the 3DS to be below 100K in January during the prime of its life is really bad.

I agree, it's bad. Very bad. I speaking to his pointing at the LTD.

 

[jcm]

I agree, it's bad. Very bad. I speaking to his pointing at the LTD.

Yes, I figured you were. I think you make a good point regarding the trap Nintendo finds itself in. The 3DS at its current price point, having just released some of its most important games, is unable to cover the losses generated by the Wii U. Cutting the price at this point most likely leads to a fourth straight annual operating loss. Nintendo can afford to make that investment, but Iwata's job might be at risk. It will be interesting to see what he does.

 

[Bgamer90]

So it looks like all the systems that were in ample supply dropped by about the same ridiculous percentage. PS4 got saved by the people who wanted to buy one for Christmas, couldn't get one, and were determined to get one in January.

I believe the month-to-month drop for the PS4 was around 65% while the drop for the Xbox One was around 85%.

I think you are right saying that the PS4 being hard to find played a pretty big role in helping them fly off of shelves during the month of January.

Xbox One has been easy to find since launch.

 

[Huff]

So if I hate digital distribution and want my games on dedicated systems only, your advice is to "embrace" a change that turns games into something I don't want? It's like you were saying "embrace war and it will not be scary anymore". I don't think this is how it works.

or you can quit gaming. your choice really

 

[John Harker]

W101 will pass 60k at some point!

 

[Shiggy]

W101 will pass 60k at some point!

Worldwide or in the US?

 

[Aquamarine]

Any reason why Cream didn't give us so much sugar this month? I mean surely there has to be some good numbers to be found for some software.

Slow month, numbers are bad all-around so there's not much to report + he didn't want to spin some sort of narrative

And he gave a ton of software numbers last month.

 

[Version 3.0]

PS4 has FIFA14, Battlefield 4, CoD:Ghost, AC4. These are the biggest franchises of today.

True, but not a single one of those is exclusive, nor even exclusive to 'next gen' systems, nor even particularly well enhanced on next gen systems.

If those franchises, with the exception of FIFA because its popularity is based outside of video games, continue to be the top franchises a few years into this generation, then this industry really is in trouble. New systems need new franchises to flourish. Show me a system whose biggest hits were the same franchises as the prior system's hits, and I'll show you a system in serious decline.

 

[ccbfan]

Not too worried about home consoles yet.

This gen will be smaller than last gen with the lost of the Wii audience. I'm just hoping its as big as the PS2 gen and nothing so far has pointed to me it won't be. As shown last gen SONY and MS can support western dev support,

Handhelds though dear lord. 3DS and Vita combined might not outsell the PSP. You talking about a 2/3 decrease in market size. This is the most worrying aspect for all dedicated gaming devices not just handhelds. We're not talking about just the Brain Age consumers leaving we're talking about the young children market as well which in turn becomes the core gamer market in 10 years and a major blow to the home console market. (Hence the "yet" in my first sentence). This is only the beginning too. As years past more and more iphones and android phones are going to become "free" (Hand me downs) with free or .99 games.

We don't know yet how the children growing up with phone and tablet gaming taste are going to evolve when they reach their teenage years so there's still some hope for home consoles.

 

[Version 3.0]

Speaking of PS4 supply issues, I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but the graphics for the Xbox One/PS4 pages on walmart.com are slightly different from each other. Guess which one says "Hurry, it won't last long!"

The other not-so-slight difference is that huge "The BEST games". This is just a retailer trying to spur (short term) demand for a product that's selling below expectation. The XB1 is probably just tieing up more of their inventory dollars than allocated, and they need to move some units out the door and get their stock vs. sales in line.

 

[SiDCrAzY]

It's out of stock in most places

It's even more out of stock now.

 

[Yoshi]

or you can quit gaming. your choice really

I will at least stop paying money for games if I cannot get them as physical copies on dedicated systems. Free 2 Play and review copies would be my only options left then. I don't believe this will happen though, it hasn't happened for music or movies either.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

If I am not mistaken, I think some retailers did promo offers with the purchase of a Wii U in Jan.

 

[Version 3.0]

No. Way too much is made of supposed 'converters' to and from PC. Very few people use PCs in the way suggested.

Steam in particular is doing very well, moving a lot of units of the same games that sell well on consoles. That doesn't exist in a vacuum. Of course some of those are (former) console owners. Doesn't it now have more accounts and concurrent users than Xbox Live?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "very few people use PCs" like that. Very few as a percentage of all PCs? Yes, definitely true, always has been. Very few vs. console owners? Not so much.

 

[perineumlick]

Wonder how soon before they ditch the Kinect. No way they can keep up the 100 dollar price difference.

Either that, or release some compelling content for Kinect that will make people want it. With Kinect being such a big focus, you would think those games would have been at the fore front. A cheaper, Kinect-less sku would no doubt get a lot people to jump on board, me included.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's amusing to visit the forums of that banned site and see people discussing me and the "accuracy" of these leaks.

 

[dolemite]

True, but not a single one of those is exclusive, nor even exclusive to 'next gen' systems, nor even particularly well enhanced on next gen systems.

If those franchises, with the exception of FIFA because its popularity is based outside of video games, continue to be the top franchises a few years into this generation, then this industry really is in trouble. New systems need new franchises to flourish. Show me a system whose biggest hits were the same franchises as the prior system's hits, and I'll show you a system in serious decline.

Which is why a lot is riding on how well Titanfall will perform.

It's amusing to visit the forums of that banned site and see people discussing me and the "accuracy" of these leaks.

They are just pissed at how poorly 3DS performed compared to their fantasy land numbers.

 

[AngryMoth]

It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

 

[Piggus]

It's amusing to visit the forums of that banned site and see people discussing me and the "accuracy" of these leaks.

dat denial

It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

Well they also probably had to start sending more units to Europe as well since supply has been bone dry there.

 

[Graphics Horse]

It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

Christmas got most of January stock shipped by air. You'll probably see similar numbers for feb, not including Japan. By March it should return to normal.

 

[Aquamarine]

It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

Sony is strategic about how they replenish inventories. January is a universally slow month, so they've presumably staggered supply to an extent and/or ramped down logistics and/or demand has cooled for the time being to meet a healthy 271K equilibrium.

Remember: 271K is a really, really good number for first January sales.


Don't worry...we'll see continued stock refreshes as the inventory Sony didn't supply retailers with in January will be realized in the upcoming, stronger months.

 

[funkystudent]

When did the PS2 start doing sub 100k numbers?

 

[Aquamarine]

When did the PS2 start doing sub 100k numbers?

2010....nearly a decade after it was released.

PS2's first <100K month was January 2010 (42K).

 

[Delusibeta]

I will at least stop paying money for games if I cannot get them as physical copies on dedicated systems. Free 2 Play and review copies would be my only options left then. I don't believe this will happen though, it hasn't happened for music or movies either.

So, you're quitting gaming? OK then.