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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]

Guevara

Member
Dumb question: if Sony corporate were in better financial shape, would they have built/hired more capacity to supply more PS4s?

And secondly: Does it matter than they can't yet meet demand?
 

quetz67

Banned
It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

Where did you get that 1.4M number from? Production started August so it wasn't higher than 1M/month in 2013. They might have ramped it up by now but we won't see the results of that before February numbers.
 

Jamix012

Member
Question; obviously since november sony hardware has been outselling Nintendo hardware, but before that, when was the last time total sony hardware outsold total Nintendo hardware? (includes handhelds) Has it ever happened before?
 
Question; obviously since november sony hardware has been outselling Nintendo hardware, but before that, when was the last time total sony hardware outsold total Nintendo hardware? (includes handhelds) Has it ever happened before?
Pretty sure that it happened before DS took of. PS2 was still selling very well and PSP had very strong start.
 

Yoshi

Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
So, you're quitting gaming? OK then.

Not any time soon, no. For now, Wii U and 3DS do receive physical releases and I'm sure Xbone or PS4 (don't know which of the two I will buy) will receive physical releases for quite a while too. So for now, I'm save.
 

noobie

Banned
It's amusing to visit the forums of that banned site and see people discussing me and the "accuracy" of these leaks.

When all of their prediction league, discussion, fights are on those numbers and then suddenly you leak NPD numbers which are quite a bit different then their numbers then its no surprise that they will be discussing the validity of your leaks..

I remember visiting that website a while ago and they posted XBO higher than PS4 for the 1st and 2nd week of january..

for the 11th Jan they had XBO 75k and PS4 74k

So NPD without numbers is better than you leaking original numbers and destroying their fantasy numbers
 

Truespeed

Member
It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

The PS4 launches in Japan in 1 week. They may want to have sufficient stock on hand.
 

Skeff

Member
It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.

The way I have it is:

1.4m produced
400k pushed into December
300k shipped to US
300k shipped to EU
400k for Jap Launch.

Seems pretty reasonable.
 
The way I have it is:

1.4m produced
400k pushed into December
300k shipped to US
300k shipped to EU
400k for Jap Launch.

Seems pretty reasonable.

They shipped 2.1m in december, so possibly more than that were pushed forward. They make some PS4s in Japan so may not need to reserve any in Jan as it's 1-2 day shipping instead of 1 month like most if the world.
 
0DP8bMP.png
 
It seems weird to me that PS4 is still supply constrained when it only sold ~280k. I thought they were manufacturing like 1.4 million a month, even with them putting aside a few 100k for the Japan launch it's seems strange that is isn't in stock everywhere yet.
manufactured shor-wait, is that a banned meme, yet? ;)
 
The GBA was still selling 200,000 plus even after the DS launched, so I'm not so sure.

Oh. You were talking about US only (makes sense as this is NPD thread). My bad. Yeah in US really not sure as GBA still sold also pretty well after DS launch. Well then like Shmuely Bully said maybe 1997/1998.
 

noobie

Banned
The way I have it is:

1.4m produced
400k pushed into December
300k shipped to US
300k shipped to EU
400k for Jap Launch.

Seems pretty reasonable.

i dont think i will like to believe 1.4m is a reliable figure.. its a guess and it can be okay and it can be wrong..

Also with Chinese New year passed recently, Sony might have run into some production short fall
 

FiggyCal

Banned
When all of their prediction league, discussion, fights are on those numbers and then suddenly you leak NPD numbers which are quite a bit different then their numbers then its no surprise that they will be discussing the validity of your leaks..

I remember visiting that website a while ago and they posted XBO higher than PS4 for the 1st and 2nd week of january..

for the 11th Jan they had XBO 75k and PS4 74k

So NPD without numbers is better than you leaking original numbers and destroying their fantasy numbers

They also had PS4 ahead of Xbox One at the end of the month. And were much closer than wedbush or Pachter. ******** gets a bad rep, undeservedly imo.
 

jcm

Member
They also had PS4 ahead of Xbox One at the end of the month. And were much closer than wedbush or Pachter. ******** gets a bad rep, undeservedly imo.

They are guessing, just like we do, but they pretend to be tracking, like NPD does. That's why they get a bad rep. Because they're full of shit. Whether their guesses are sometimes accurate is immaterial.

Still better than Pachter and his gang.

Pachter doesn't lie about what he is.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
They are guessing, just like we do, but they pretend to be tracking, like NPD does. That's why they get a bad rep. Because they're full of shit. Whether their guesses are sometimes accurate is immaterial.



Pachter doesn't lie about what he is.

All numbers are estimates - even NPD. Everyone's guessing based on samples and some algorythm-- it just so happens that NPD number tend to be more accurate, but even then they're not set in stone as absolute. Sony and Forbes are among the companies that use their data.
 

Amir0x

Banned
They also had PS4 ahead of Xbox One at the end of the month. And were much closer than wedbush or Pachter. ******** gets a bad rep, undeservedly imo.

The only way you could say the rep they get is undeserved is if you're completely unfamiliar with

a.) their history on neoGAF
b.) the endless ways in which people who actually have their hands on data have mocked the shit out of how terrible their numbers tend to be
c.) the deceptive way in which they try to pretend they get their data. They're not tracking shit but their ass.

They are a joke site, thus they are banned from here. neoGAF doesn't come to those conclusions on a whim. The rep is deserved.
 
Any chance you could make one of these with Dreamcast in there as well?

Adjusted for the calendar year:

Hg7OhFX.png


Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - September 2012 for Wii U


Adjusted for how long the two consoles have been out:

aicMJYZ.png


Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - November 2012 for Wii U
 

FiggyCal

Banned
The only way you could say the rep they get is undeserved is if you're completely unfamiliar with

a.) their history on neoGAF
b.) the endless ways in which people who actually have their hands on data have mocked the shit out of how terrible their numbers tend to be
c.) the deceptive way in which they try to pretend they get their data. They're not tracking shit but their ass.

They are a joke site, thus they are banned from here. neoGAF doesn't come to those conclusions on a whim. The rep is deserved.

You're right. Nevermind.
 
All numbers are estimates - even NPD. Everyone's guessing based on samples and some algorythm-- it just so happens that NPD number tend to be more accurate, but even then they're not set in stone as absolute. Sony and Forbes are among the companies that use their data.

NPD is real data from 90-95% of retailers and projections from the other 5-10%. Every major retailer that sells video games is included....the only retailers NPD does not track are some scattered, mom-and-pop institutions, or obscure retail websites not in the public consciousness.

So, the sales from:

1) Department stores like Wal-Mart, K-Mart, and Target
2) All of the major video game distributors (sales to retailers)
3) Online retailers like Newegg.com, TigerDirect.com and Amazon.com
4) Specialty electronic stores like GameStop and Best Buy

^ Are all combined together in NPD's array of comprehensive reports. If you purchased a brand-new version of a video game from any of those venues (aka. not from eBay / not from another person), NPD has a record of it.

But the fact that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo use this data to determine corporate strategy is all that matters.

Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo take the numbers as fact, so we need to take the numbers as fact as well. They're not actually absolute, but for all intents and purposes we might as well treat them that way.


They also had PS4 ahead of Xbox One at the end of the month. And were much closer than wedbush or Pachter. ******** gets a bad rep, undeservedly imo.

Yes deservedly. The fact that their forum even takes recent VGC numbers even slightly seriously is actually hilarious. They're really just as accurate as any GAFfer prediction...as shown by the fact that their "sales numbers" this month were ridiculously higher than the real NPD results.

And yet, the website doesn't call them "predictions." No. It calls them "sales numbers," and they actually deceive thousands of ignorant people who don't know any better.
 
Yes deservedly. The fact that their forum even takes recent VGC numbers even slightly seriously is actually hilarious. They're really just as accurate as any GAFfers prediction...as shown by the fact that their "sales numbers" this month were ridiculously higher than the real NPD results.

And yet, the website doesn't call them "predictions." No. It calls them "sales numbers," and they actually deceive thousands of ignorant people who don't know any better.

What boggles my mind the most about that site is the notion they are likely receiving payment for their numbers. That's ridiculous and entirely immoral to mislead a customer like that.
 

heidern

Junior Member
For the 3DS to be below 100K in January during the prime of its life is really bad.
I agree, it's bad. Very bad. I speaking to his pointing at the LTD.

You guys maybe missed my post on the monthly sales:
1) DS hardware sales only declined 16% compared to last year. Software sales increased 6%.
2) The DS has not had a price cut for two and a half years thus saturating the current pricepoint. In fact the good sales in November 770K(up from 540K in November 2012) followed by a relatively weak December ~1M(down from 1.25M in December 2012) suggests even more that there was a saturation of the price point.
3) The $129 SKU is a gimped SKU and although lower in price is not higher in value. A $149 3DS and a $99 2DS would mean an increase in value proposition and increase sales.

Economy of scale on the 3DS is improving and maybe production improvements have been made so a price cut is becoming more and more affordable(the hardware is already being sold at a profit). Going to $149 will also only be a $20 cut and so additional game sales will make this up relatively quickly. I expect either they cut in March to get some out at the lower price before the financial year end(allowing them to boast good news about increased sales and also they can account for some of the 'losses' on hardware this financial year making it easier to get growth next year) or they'll cut it later in the year to maximise profit margins(maybe August/September and rely on a holiday boost or May if they think it needs a boost through the summer).
 
Adjusted for the calendar year:

Hg7OhFX.png


Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - September 2012 for Wii U


Adjusted for how long the two consoles have been out:

aicMJYZ.png


Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - November 2012 for Wii U

That chart basically shows me that , along with the price drop, retailers efforts to move the Wii U with gift cards and other promos has really helped to shift stock.
 

iori9999

Banned
We should just move on for mentioning that site.. I'm not going to lie and say that I do lurk there from time to time.. But it is what it is and they are just estimated guesses just like if you and me were to do them.. Anyways, I think all the numbers look bad for NPD except for PS4.. And man Vita is dead :(..
 
We should just move on for mentioning that site.. I'm not going to lie and say that I do lurk there from time to time.. But it is what it is and they are just estimated guesses just like if you are me were to do.. Anyways, I think all the numbers look bad for NPD except for PS4.. And man Vita is dead :(..

You would think PS Plus would do more for the Vita. I'm thinking of picking one up now just because I have all of those free games.
 
That chart basically shows me that , along with the price drop, retailers efforts to move the Wii U with gift cards and other promos has really helped to shift stock.

Personally I would read that more like Nintendo hw benefits greatly from the xmas period more than anything else. Nintendo consoles makes great presents.

Perhaps that's just me but I thought they have a higher than average bump up compared to competitors historically

You would think PS Plus would do more for the Vita. I'm thinking of picking one up now just because I have all of those free games.

Difficulty with Plus attracting people to the Vita is you have to be well aware of Plus, how it works etc. and constantly be adding games as they are made available and before they fall out of plus. The average consumer is not going to do that for an upcoming purchase that may or may not happen. It's sad but it is what it is
 
You would think PS Plus would do more for the Vita. I'm thinking of picking one up now just because I have all of those free games.
That and remote play was exactly why I bought a Vita.

Difficulty with Plus attracting people to the Vita is you have to be well aware of Plus, how it works etc. and constantly be adding games as they are made available and before they fall out of plus. The average consumer is not going to do that for an upcoming purchase that may or may not happen. It's sad but it is what it is
This is probably true. I bet half the people who have PS4 and PS+ don't even know about the free games for the system they do have. I had to tell a guy at work and two people I was playing online with about Outlast, otherwise they had no idea.
 

Yaoibot

Member
They also had PS4 ahead of Xbox One at the end of the month. And were much closer than wedbush or Pachter. ******** gets a bad rep, undeservedly imo.

They're wrong more often than right and just retroactively adjust their bogus numbers once MC, Chart Track and NPD come out. Its fiction, and not even believable fiction.
 
Personally I would read that more like Nintendo hw benefits greatly from the xmas period more than anything else. Nintendo consoles makes great presents.

Perhaps that's just me but I thought they have a higher than average bump up compared to competitors historically

There was tons of promos for the Wii U during Christmas. Tons. I almost bit several times but I decided to wait until at least E3 to see how healthy the platform would be going into 2014.
 
That and remote play was exactly why I bought a Vita.


This is probably true. I bet half the people who have PS4 and PS+ don't even know about the free games for the system they do have. I had to tell a guy at work and two people I was playing online with about Outlast, otherwise they had no idea.

They really need to just automatically add the games to your account instead of making you add the games by hand. If you wake up from a coma, you get nothing.lol
 
There was tons of promos for the Wii U during Christmas. Tons. I almost bit several times but I decided to wait until at least E3 to see how healthy the platform would be going into 2014.

Hmm I guess we agree to disagree but perhaps you're right. The bundles and lower prices for the 3DS didn't seem to help it that much in Nov but that's a handheld so who knows?

They really need to just automatically add the games to your account instead of making you add the games by hand. If you wake up from a coma, you get nothing.lol

I think the deal with publishers very clearly stipulates how the free games are handled. If sony could they would give you the free games automatically I'm pretty sure
 
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