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[urfe]

Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.

#repost for next page#[/QUOTE]

Not that I have data for it, but you are missing Brain Lord on the SNES.

 

[hodayathink]

While Sony with PS3 is certainly more in need of a price cut on the PS3 ASAP, I'm surprised that neither them nor MS dropped price this E3 considering their last gen sales. Are pricedrops more common during winter perhaps for the holidays?

microsoft and sony don't care about the bigger market or families a whole lot (microsoft did, but pretty much stopped after a year). you can still buy an xbox 360 for $299.99 for chrissakes. the ps2 stopped being $299.99 in early 2002.

It's odd to me I guess as limiting yourself to a smaller market perhaps even a more lucrative market potentially at least per user seems short-sighted. Sony has to know how much of PS2's install base came at the cheaper sales points so I guess it is a straight up choice on their part

Not that I think it will actually succeed at it, but I think this is one of the other things they're "hoping" to do with the Vita/Playstation TV. They know that you can get a lot of family/late-adopter sales by hitting around that price point, but they also know that they can't actually get there and maintain any sort of profit with the PS3 because of the components they've placed in it (between the hard drive, the Cell, and the Blu-Ray drive). So they hope that they can position the Vita in that space, and use it's library of original games and ports (cross platform or otherwise) to sell to that demographic.

I really don't think the plan will work, but it sounds like something Sony would think up in my head.

 

[SwiftDeath]

It's interesting that Sony is remaining so steadfast to their "10 year plan"...

Yeah can't wait to see vitas support from SCEA in 2021...

 

[Aaron Strife]

PS2 January 2009: 101K
PS2 February 2009: 131K
PS2 March 2009: 112K
PS2 April 2009: 172K
PS2 May 2009: 117K

PS2 January 2010: -61% YOY
PS2 February 2010: -22% YOY
PS2 March 2010: +5% YOY
PS2 April 2010: -74% YOY
PS2 May 2010: -72% YOY.

PS2 was a monster to still be selling that well in 2009.

I wonder if there's any room left for a cheaper home console to put up some decent numbers. While there are other factors in declining console sales, I'm sure the price tags for PS4, Xbox One and even Wii U are no small obstacles for families and impulse buyers.

Actually there is one company I'd want to see give a crack at this, even if it's a complete fantasy:

 

[AniHawk]

Actually there is one company I'd want to see give a crack at this, even if it's a complete fantasy:

if the people running sammy didn't have a say, sega would have already reentered the hardware market. and they probably would have filed for bankruptcy, but hey what a wild ride last gen would have been.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Not that I think it will actually succeed at it, but I think this is one of the other things they're "hoping" to do with the Vita/Playstation TV. They know that you can get a lot of family/late-adopter sales by hitting around that price point, but they also know that they can't actually get there and maintain any sort of profit with the PS3 because of the components they've placed in it (between the hard drive, the Cell, and the Blu-Ray drive). So they hope that they can position the Vita in that space, and use it's library of original games and ports (cross platform or otherwise) to sell to that demographic.

I really don't think the plan will work, but it sounds like something Sony would think up in my head.

Yeah. The Vita reborn as Sony's entry-level offering, doing dual-duty as an end-of-cycle-PS2 replacement and as a competitor for alternative consoles like the Ouya and whatever Apple et al think up a few years from now.

 

[pieatorium]

I wonder if there's any room left for a cheaper home console to put up some decent numbers. While there are other factors in declining console sales, I'm sure the price tags for PS4, Xbox One and even Wii U are no small obstacles for families and impulse buyers.

Actually there is one company I'd want to see give a crack at this, even if it's a complete fantasy:

the price is less relevant than the mindshare, one of the reasons the ps4 developed such a big gap is that the biggest games for both are from mostly the same but the ps4 is lower cost.

A cheap platform would be getting none of the big 3rd party games outside of say minecraft and theres already a $100 console coming that has minecraft announced in vita tv.

Marketing and promotion is a big deal, the relationship between sony/ms and the third party's is essentially promoting each others products

 

[grimlock442]

Is there any evidence that the xbone price drop is having the kind of effect MS needs? Things seem pretty quiet. 3rd and 4th place monthly finishes in the US will spell troubled times.

 

[TaiKH92]

Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.

Wow this is amazing.

ha ha Kingdom Hearts outsold FFX and KH2 sold almost as much.

FFIII and Chrono Trigger deserved to sell more

 

[pieatorium]

ha ha Kingdom Hearts outsold FFX and KH2 sold almost as much.

It's Disney in the US. thats like hockey in Canada or shitty weather in the UK.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Double post but on phone so lazy.

The talk of losing, future tense, x million units leading to industry doom never really makes sense to me. It should really be past tense. The effect of the Wii's collapse and the effect of handheld market slide have been in effect for years. It's like saying the loss of x million units of music games and peripherals going forward amounts to doom. I.e. if the industry is to be doomed then aren't we already there?

Only if it doesn't get worse my friend.

There's a reason I put my expectations at a minimum of a 100 million unit loss on the home console side. Part of me expects this to not be all Nintendo loss. One or both of MS and Sony have the potential to have tens of million shaved off their hardware totals. Given MS push into "casual" gamers, and the fact that neither has a completely "core" userbase leads me to believe it's very possible for both to end up with a loss of marketshare as well.

I've been very bullish on PS4's prospects, but the massive drop off it's seeing as well as the... lets say less than adequate performance of One makes me think I've been completely wrong and the collapse can actually be much larger than most expect. Maybe not eating into the CoD or GTA gamer yet... but you're still talking a good 50-90 million other gamers that could.

Need more data points.

 

[big_z]

so while out price matching Mario kart 8 I looked at the hardware stock(futureshop,Bestbuy/walsmart). tons of ps4 everywhere, lots of xbones with Kinect but far fewer without Kinect. not sure how many Microsoft shipped but it seems to be moving pretty well. saw a handful of people walking around with them.

the most interesting thing was the wiiu. Mario kart bundles still sold out much like last week however at future shop last week they had a mountain of dusty Mario luigi bundles sitting there, probably 30-40+ units. today they had 3. its possible they moved them but I looked and couldnt find them. best buy and walmart only had a few units as well and the games looked pretty picked through. I was shocked to say the least.

so now im curious, anyone here work in retail dealing with games? if so how are wii u sales these past few weeks?

 

[AniHawk]

so while out price matching Mario kart 8 I looked at the hardware stock(futureshop,Bestbuy/walsmart). tons of ps4 everywhere, lots of xbones with Kinect but far fewer without Kinect. not sure how many Microsoft shipped but it seems to be moving pretty well. saw a handful of people walking around with them.

the most interesting thing was the wiiu. Mario kart bundles still sold out much like last week however at future shop last week they had a mountain of dusty Mario luigi bundles sitting there, probably 30-40+ units. today they had 3. its possible they moved them but I looked and couldnt find them. best buy and walmart only had a few units as well and the games looked pretty picked through. I was shocked to say the least.

so now im curious, anyone here work in retail dealing with games? if so how are wii u sales these past few weeks?

i went on an impromptu walkabout today. target had lots of xbox ones, xbox 360s, two wii minis, a lot of ps4s and a ps3. no vitas, psps, ps2s, or wii us. best buy only had wii minis, ps3s, and 360s. toys r us had lots of mario kart 8s, but no mario kart 8 bundles. there were nsmbu bundles though, as well as ps4s and xbox ones. it was also the only place with tomodachi life (there were two left). at that point i decided not to get the game though.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Need more data points.

Agreed, I don't think either PS4 or Xbone have set a non-holiday baseline yet, and I don't think they will in their June NPDs either.

 

[pieatorium]

but the massive drop off it's seeing

the 360 will end up at decently over 40 million in the US.

Do you know how many times it sold more in May than this years ps4 number?

Twice, 2006 and 2011

 

[Clefargle]

Some nice surprises here, MK8 did well over opening weekend .

 

[Thunder Monkey]

the 360 will end up at decently over 40 million in the US.

Do you know how many times it sold more in May than this years ps4 number?

Twice, 2006 and 2011

Which is just dreadful in and of itself, but taken on the whole it did not bode ill for the American market. Three very respectably selling platforms. PS3 started slow (mainly due to price) but in the end has outsold every second place system in America. And it was the third place finisher.

If PS4 continues on a 360 trajectory it could pass the 40 million unit mark in America. One on its current trajectory may not even hit 30 million units. And WiiU will be lucky to hit 8 million at its current pace.

It's still too early to say with certainty either way, but we're looking at an American market contraction of at least 30 million units. And that's completely dependent on them lasting eight years. It could be much lower. Unless at least one of them has a significant upward trend.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Only if it doesn't get worse my friend.

There's a reason I put my expectations at a minimum of a 100 million unit loss on the home console side. Part of me expects this to not be all Nintendo loss. One or both of MS and Sony have the potential to have tens of million shaved off their hardware totals. Given MS push into "casual" gamers, and the fact that neither has a completely "core" userbase leads me to believe it's very possible for both to end up with a loss of marketshare as well.

I've been very bullish on PS4's prospects, but the massive drop off it's seeing as well as the... lets say less than adequate performance of One makes me think I've been completely wrong and the collapse can actually be much larger than most expect. Maybe not eating into the CoD or GTA gamer yet... but you're still talking a good 50-90 million other gamers that could.

Need more data points.

Somewhat pedantic, but as we're largely talking about the US market here, it's probably more useful to use US market numbers i.e. ~26M PS3s, ~41.5M 360s and Wiis. There'll likely be a ~10-15M contraction in the Japanese home console market, but I don't know if it's that pertinent to the discussion of the US market at hand.

I think one needs to consider that there was unprecedented fulfillment of demand very early with these system launches. And that lower demand in the initial post-launch period thus shouldn't be completely unexpected. But the systems from Sony and Microsoft have reached an annualized rate of 10M for the first time in a while, much more rapidly than anticipated really, and this watermark band of 10-12M systems TTM rate has been the norm for the past generation.

I guess it comes down to questions like: who was buying the HD consoles at the start, who was buying them in the middle, who was buying them at the end, and will each or any of these groups come back. And I'm just not that pessimistic that substitute alternative products have sufficiently provided replacements to supplant the home console experience yet for most of those people. And these systems are returning to a growth cycle, mostly only in hardware right now, but I would hope that translates into software as more releases.

Nintendo isn't going to zero in the US market either, so if we're extrapoguestimolating, we're looking at something more like a ~36M contraction from their end, assuming the remaining of that 41M have completely left the console space and they end up at around a 5M number, which may be unfounded assumptions.

They in all likelihood aren't going to return to the boom times of 2008 and 2009; of music games and plastic accessories and the heights of the Wii, of fitness games and the NDS and Brain Training. At least not without some unexpected craze. No one should really expect that. But if those buyers have gone, then haven't they largely already gone. And aren't we at the point of recovering in the new normal, which really isn't that different from the old normal.

 

[StevieP]

The issue with the new normal is fewer gamers to purchase games that cost even more to make than ever, with an increasingly narrow demographic focus and a much larger amount of focus testing as a result. I mean, that's already happening for the most part (it'll just worsen).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Which is just dreadful in and of itself, but taken on the whole it did not bode ill for the American market. Three very respectably selling platforms. PS3 started slow (mainly due to price) but in the end has outsold every second place system in America. And it was the third place finisher.

If PS4 continues on a 360 trajectory it could pass the 40 million unit mark in America. One on its current trajectory may not even hit 30 million units. And WiiU will be lucky to hit 8 million at its current pace.

It's still too early to say with certainty either way, but we're looking at an American market contraction of at least 30 million units. And that's completely dependent on them lasting eight years. It could be much lower. Unless at least one of them has a significant upward trend.

You were talking about the PS4 only:

I've been very bullish on PS4's prospects, but the massive drop off it's seeing as well as the

in which case what this poster said pretty much sums up this so called "massive drop"

the 360 will end up at decently over 40 million in the US.

Do you know how many times it sold more in May than this years ps4 number?

Twice, 2006 and 2011

There is no massive drop. Unless you want to say the 360 had a massive drop in which case many would tell you its natural for systems to decline in the following months. Even more amusing, PS4 is ahead of 360 by a notable amount and is still keeping up if not doing better.

 

[The Maverick]

Which is just dreadful in and of itself, but taken on the whole it did not bode ill for the American market. Three very respectably selling platforms. PS3 started slow (mainly due to price) but in the end has outsold every second place system in America. And it was the third place finisher.

If PS4 continues on a 360 trajectory it could pass the 40 million unit mark in America. One on its current trajectory may not even hit 30 million units. And WiiU will be lucky to hit 8 million at its current pace.

It's still too early to say with certainty either way, but we're looking at an American market contraction of at least 30 million units. And that's completely dependent on them lasting eight years. It could be much lower. Unless at least one of them has a significant upward trend.

You are far too pessimistic on these new consoles. Things are not in doom mode. There's not enough evidence to support your speculation, excluding the fall of the Nintendo home console market and the crush of handhelds as a whole.

 

[Game Guru]

There is no massive drop. Unless you want to say the 360 had a massive drop in which case many would tell you its natural for systems to decline in the following months. Even more amusing, PS4 is ahead of 360 by a notable amount and is still keeping up if not doing better.

It has been stated how the 360's May numbers only outsold this year's May numbers for PS4 in 2006 and 2011. I find those two particular years interesting. 2006 was 360's first May on the market. 2011 was the first May with 360's Kinect on the market. This means two things... PS4's first May was unable to match or exceed 360's first May. Second, Kinect, and thus the casual base, may have been the primary cause for increased sales of the 360 in 2011. If we assume the casual base had left consoles forever, then it is possible that there will be a decrease in console sales because the casual base had boosted the 360's sales in its last three years on the market.

The PS4 and XB1 had massive frontloaded sales, so the big question is if that will be enough to offset the expected loss of Xbox 360's casual market five years from now? We won't know that for a while at least. But it at least puts into perspective one particular question...

if the industry is to be doomed [because of the loss of the casual and handheld markets] then aren't we already there?

Because the Xbox 360's and PS3's own attempts at the casual market happened four years after the Wii's, the effect of the casual market's loss for the PS4 and XB1 has yet to be seen.

 

[AniHawk]

You are far too pessimistic on these new consoles. Things are not in doom mode. There's not enough evidence to support your speculation, excluding the fall of the Nintendo home console market and the crush of handhelds as a whole.

if you have to exclude entire portions of the market to point out that other parts of the market are okay, then the market isn't okay.

The PS4 and XB1 had massive frontloaded sales, so the big question is if that will be enough to offset the expected loss of Xbox 360's casual market five years from now? We won't know that for a while at least.

i'm curious as to how those frontloaded sales are going to be viewed going forward. the ps4 and xbox one are currently the fastest-selling systems ever in the us. it could be that the people who traditionally followed these console manufacturers have essentially been trained to buy big at launch, which would have been spread out over the year instead. the two platforms hit at the same time with mostly the same games, so it's not like there's any point in waiting for one or the other. it could also be that the promise of new software is driving growth, and this is just a soft period before all the major software starts hitting later this year and next on both platforms. the former suggests that we are in or will shortly be in the best days for these consoles, followed by what was usually a standard decline. the latter promises that there will be massive growth for both of these platforms in the next two years, exceeding their current trajectory.

and by the by, the xbox 360 may be at 42m now, but that's at 8.5 years on the market. the console was at 22m units sold at five years. i'm not sure if that's such a high bar for success.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

So NPD is now only worth it for the top 10 Software charts, since we no longer have good leaks on actural hardware number?

when both Sony and Microsoft stay quiet it makes for a very boring result

 

[pieatorium]

So NPD is now only worth it for the top 10 Software charts, since we no longer have good leaks on actural hardware number?

we did get good leaks on all hardware

 

[KillerMan91]

It has been stated how the 360's May numbers only outsold this year's May numbers for PS4 in 2006 and 2011. I find those two particular years interesting. 2006 was 360's first May on the market. 2011 was the first May with 360's Kinect on the market. This means two things... PS4's first May was unable to match or exceed 360's first May. Second, Kinect, and thus the casual base, may have been the primary cause for increased sales of the 360 in 2011. If we assume the casual base had left consoles forever, then it is possible that there will be a decrease in console sales because the casual base had boosted the 360's sales in its last three years on the market.

The PS4 and XB1 had massive frontloaded sales, so the big question is if that will be enough to offset the expected loss of Xbox 360's casual market five years from now? We won't know that for a while at least.

X360 had huge first May because it was supply constrained until April and that lead to unusually high April and May sales. You really can't compare it to directly PS4. In june X360 did already more normal numbers (270k for five week tracking period) and in July just over 200k.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

It has been stated how the 360's May numbers only outsold this year's May numbers for PS4 in 2006 and 2011. I find those two particular years interesting. 2006 was 360's first May on the market. 2011 was the first May with 360's Kinect on the market. This means two things... PS4's first May was unable to match or exceed 360's first May. Second, Kinect, and thus the casual base, may have been the primary cause for increased sales of the 360 in 2011. If we assume the casual base had left consoles forever, then it is possible that there will be a decrease in console sales because the casual base had boosted the 360's sales in its last three years on the market.

The PS4 and XB1 had massive frontloaded sales, so the big question is if that will be enough to offset the expected loss of Xbox 360's casual market five years from now? We won't know that for a while at least. But it at least puts into perspective one particular question...



Because the Xbox 360's and PS3's own attempts at the casual market happened four years after the Wii's, the effect of the casual market's loss for the PS4 and XB1 has yet to be seen.

1) 360 in 2006 was on the market by itself and even then only managed to beat PS4 by 20k. Hardly a big difference.

2) PS4 is beating 360 by a considerable amount at this point in time.

Someone compare the LTD of PS4 and 360 so people can see the difference. (Aquamarine pls )

PS4's sales weren't front loaded. PS4 had record breaking sales during the holidays and so relative to those it may seem to have dropped but in comparison to the 360 its doing better.

 

[Game Guru]

X360 had huge first May because it was supply constrained until April and that lead to unusually high April and May sales. You really can't compare it to directly PS4. In june X360 did already more normal numbers (270k for five week tracking period) and in July just over 200k.

Wasn't PS4 supply contained until March? I have a difficult time believing an extra month of being supply constrained means Xbox 360's and PS4's sales are incomparable.

 

[AniHawk]

Someone compare the LTD of PS4 and 360 so people can see the difference. (Aquamarine pls )

PS4's sales weren't front loaded. PS4 had record breaking sales during the holidays and so relative to those it may seem to have dropped but in comparison to the 360 its doing better.

xbox 360 was at around 2.89m in its first 13 months, which the ps4 currently exceeds by about 400k. by the time the ps4 gets to there, it will probably maintain a good 2.2m lead, at least.

frontloaded sales have more to do with demand after launch, not during. record breaking sales during the holidays followed by what are kind of substandard months for a market-leading platform would be an indication of such. however, we're going to need a lot more time to declare anything this or that. right now it's only a possible explanation for what happened.

 

[pieatorium]

xbox 360 was at around 2.89m in its first 13 months, which the ps4 currently exceeds by about 400k. by the time the ps4 gets to there, it will probably maintain a good 2.2m lead, at least.

frontloaded sales have more to do with demand after launch, not during. record breaking sales during the holidays followed by what are kind of substandard months for a market-leading platform would be an indication of such. however, we're going to need a lot more time to declare anything this or that. right now it's only a possible explanation for what happened.

but the sales aren't substandard they are pretty much standard for the what the 360 was selling which would also sell 800k+ novembers and 1-1.5 million decembers.

 

[AniHawk]

but the sales aren't substandard they are pretty much standard for the what the 360 was selling which would also sell 800k+ novembers and 1-1.5 million decembers.

the 360 wasn't a market leading platform until it got its second wind with kinect. ps4 doesn't compare favorably in this sense to the wii or ps2. the first time the ps2 had a sub-200k may was in 2007. the first time the wii had a sub-200k may was in 2012, which was also the first time no system had a 200k+ may (since probably the 90s), a tradition that continues to this very day.

 

[1st Course]

360 was a slow burner. Just look:

Xbox 360 us sales

2005: 607k
2006: 3896k
2007: 4619k
2008: 4735k
2009: 4771k
2010: 6764k
2011: 7284k
2012: 5320k
2013: 3070k

Very weird pattern, I'm sure absolutely no known thought the 360 will go to sell 40m+ back in 2005/2006. 360 later years compared to PS2:

PS2 2005: 5544k
360 2010: 6764k

PS2 2006: 4710k
360 2011: 7284k

PS2 2007: 3945K
360 2012: 5320k

PS2 2008: 2503k
360 2013: 3070k

 

[shinra-bansho]

the expected loss of Xbox 360's casual market five years from now? We won't know that for a while at least. But it at least puts into perspective one particular question...
Because the Xbox 360's and PS3's own attempts at the casual market happened four years after the Wii's, the effect of the casual market's loss for the PS4 and XB1 has yet to be seen.

(I've just included a little bit of the part that wasn't directly directed to my quote, as it's relevant as well.)

Is the expectation that the late adopting market will disappear warranted, and if so why? They certainly didn't come back in force for the Wii U, although some manner of it's sales may be due to those demographics based on which software sells best besides Nintendo's. They're not buying the PS4 and XBO right now. They're in all likelihood buying the PS3 and 360 if anything.

(From the launch of the Xbox, and PS3 respectively. N.B. the PS2 had sold about 1.5M more than the 360, in the period preceding the launch of the other system. Yes, excludes Nintendo's stuff, let's not get into that again.)

When I look at that, I basically see delayed adoption last gen, probably due to price. But there was still a late cycle adoption when the makers began to position the products better for those markets. The other difference of course was that at this point in the PS2's life we were already 2 or 3 years into the next cycle.

But it doesn't necessarily make me think that everyone after and including peak 5 has necessarily dissipated from the market. They're not the ones buying these systems now, and I don't know where the expectation comes from that that they would be. The value proposition as it stands isn't geared towards them.

I guess it comes back to who was buying those devices, are they coming back, if not why not? Are they migrating to Amazon Fire TV, Steam boxes? Are they just no longer interested in any TV based gaming.

 

[Mpl90]

Yeah, I don't understand why 360 is treated as such a huge standard for PS4 to reach in USA.

Or better, I can easily comprehend why 360 LTD can be seen as a huge standard, because it is, but why aligned comparisons as well. 360's first 4 years haven't been such a huge standard for what should be the best selling home console in the market.

Psycho_Mantis posted earlier first 4 Mays for 360, right?

360 May 2006 : 221k
360 May 2007 : 155k
360 May 2008 : 186k
360 May 2009 : 175k

And 1st Course posted also how much the console sold overall every year, so far. Let's see how much those May sales translated into yearly sales

2005: 607k
2006: 3896k
2007: 4619k
2008: 4735k
2009: 4771k

(2005 considered since...well, it's when the console launched)

360 launch to 2009's total - 18,628,000

Yep, 360 literally exploded in sales thanks to the 360 Slim first and Kinect then, so much that, between 2010 and 2013, it sold 22,438,000 units. That...doesn't happen that much: selling more in the "second" four years compared to the "first". Kinect and opening to the casual audience had a huuuge effect on later 360 sales, especially in 2010 and 2011.

For comparison, here's first 4 Mays for PS2

PS2

May 2001 - 281,000
May 2002 - 524,000 (note: price cut from $299 to $199)
May 2003 - 288,000
May 2004 - 253,000 (note: price cut from $179 to $149)

And here's the yearly sales for the first four years

2000 - 1,101,000
2001 - 6,215,000
2002 - 8,575,000
2003 - 6,387,000
2004 - 4,606,000

PS2 launch to 2004's total - 26,884,000

Now THIS is a real high standard of yearly sales / first years sales. Amazingly enough, PS2 continued selling quite well even when 360, PS3 and Wii were already out. It's true that it didn't sell as well as 360 in its later years, but it's because 360 sales got boosted by Kinect and Slim SKU. Plus, it was a current gen consoles, not an older gen console still living when the new breed was already here, like PS2.

Yes, May is one of the lowest month in the year, it's undeniable, and numbers will get higher as the end of the year approaches, that's obvious, and that's something that we can say for each and every console. But it's also true that, while 197,000 units aren't certainly bad sales for the month, they're not either that great for the supposed leading home console in its first year on the market.

In the same way, selling around Xbox 360 first years' levels isn't bad. It's a good level for sure. But it's not the high standard people think it represents by seeing its LTD (which, actually, IS a quite high standard for sure), because those sales changed heavily their pattern in later 360 years, they became quite different.

 

[allan-bh]

PS3 January 2013: 202K

PS3 January 2014: -67% YOY

This is right?

In january 2014 thread the estimate for PS3 is ~53.5k. -67% YOY doesn't match.

 

[Road]

Yeah, I don't understand why 360 is treated as such a huge standard for PS4 to reach in USA.

Or better, I can easily comprehend why 360 LTD can be seen as a huge standard, because it is, but why aligned comparisons as well. 360's first 4 years haven't been such a huge standard for what should be the best selling home console in the market.

Psycho_Mantis posted earlier first 4 Mays for 360, right?

360 May 2006 : 221k
360 May 2007 : 155k
360 May 2008 : 186k
360 May 2009 : 175k

For comparison, here's first 4 Mays for PS2

PS2

May 2001 - 281,000
May 2002 - 524,000 (note: price cut from $299 to $199)
May 2003 - 288,000
May 2004 - 253,000 (note: price cut from $179 to $149)

I agree. It's funny how the Xbox 360 now became the standard for first year sales.

PS4 sales this year haven't been amazing (as PS2 or Wii), but they haven't been bad either (as PS3 or XBO). Anyone saying either is, well, factually wrong. That much is obvious (and I'm currently inclined to agree the month over month slow down is just be the normal pattern of sales throughout the year). Where will it stop, right now, is impossible to predict accurately. It could not even beat the PS3 in the end, let alone reach 40 million.

Too soon to know; only time will tell etc.

 

[Dire]

Yeah, I don't understand why 360 is treated as such a huge standard for PS4 to reach in USA....

I think the most realistic reason is stubbornness. People clearly enjoying predicting and speculating about sales numbers. However, the line between appealing to objectively considered data for predictions and "interpreting" numbers to support your position seems to become blurred for some people.

I think any reasonably intelligent individual could point to a plethora of reasons the PS4 v 360 numbers are not really meaningful, let alone a benchmark for success. However, you can also look at it superficially. The 360 sold well. By some metrics the PS4 is outperforming or roughly on par with the 360. Therefore the PS4 will probably do well also. It doesn't sound like bad logic even if I think most people realize it actually is.

Next month will be a perfect example of this. Unless something very unexpected happens the PS4 should be expected to sell around 400k units next month. Given the proximity to launch and the wide availability of supply and weak competition, it could be even higher. People who don't take the time to realize this is a standard seasonal trend will likely jump on this as evidence of a clearly positive future. 300k units would be a significant failure in terms of expectation, yet people who want to support their view will likely again simply repeat something basically along the lines of "+50% MoM is a failure? LOL doom and gloom."

 

[SwiftDeath]

While I don't mean to interrupt the flow of conversation this is now the 5th longest NPD thread. Someone inform aquamarine

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

While I don't mean to interrupt the flow of conversation this is now the 5th longest NPD thread. Someone inform aquamarine

The weird thing is that it's not even a really exciting month.

 

[Aquamarine]

This is right?

In january 2014 thread the estimate for PS3 is ~53.5k. -67% YOY doesn't match.

-67% YOY is adjusted.


For example:


Adjusted Wii U YOY for January 2014 is +7%.

The math follows like this:

January 2013 Wii U = 57K (5 weeks) -> 45.6K (4 weeks)
January 2014 Wii U = 49K (4 weeks)

45.6K (adjusted) -> 49K = +7.456% = +7% YOY

 

[heidern]

Is the expectation that the late adopting market will disappear warranted, and if so why?

If you're referring to the audience Microsoft attracted with the Kinect, it probably won't reappear since Microsoft are taking steps to abandon that market what with unbundling Kinect.

Yep, 360 literally exploded in sales thanks to the 360 Slim first and Kinect then, so much that, between 2010 and 2013, it sold 22,438,000 units. That...doesn't happen that much: selling more in the "second" four years compared to the "first".

Exactly right. PS3/360 were slow burners. PS3 because of the high pricing, 360 because it followed on from Xbox which was nowhere near a market leading console. Those barriers aren't there this time and I don't think PS4/X1 are likely to manage the same extended lifecycles. Instead they are likely to have more normal lifecycles and in that comparison with PS2/Wii they do not look to be doing great. That in itself isn't a problem because PS2/Wii set a really high standard, but when you combine that with escalating budgets there is a potential problem.

There's bad news across the entire spectrum of console/handheld gaming. Sony's handheld business has almost completely collapsed. Nintendo's handheld business has declined back to it's traditional core, maybe even that core declining to some extent. Nintendo's console business has collapsed to it's niche with even that niche declining to some extent. Xbox looks to be currently collapsing. Music games market disappeared. Mid tier developers collapsed. Japanese industry collapsing with even major franchises like Pro Evo and Gran Turismo seeing massive declines. Even the core AAA market isn't doing so hot what with CoD declining 30%, Titanfall underperforming and now Watchdogs although selling well, failing to ignite next-gen sales. Development costs are rising and games taking longer to produce leading to less games being released and less variety.

Where's the good news to counter all that? Where are the risks being taken that could create changes in fortune?

 

[Aquamarine]

“Collectively, May 2014 launches sold 800 percent more in dollar sales than May 2013 launches did their respective launch months. New launches represented 50 percent of dollar sales this month, which compared to only 9 percent for new launches in May 2013," commented Callahan.


^ This is a record high for May sales. The relative percentage of catalog sales hasn't been so low in decades.

 

[terrisus]

So NPD is now only worth it for the top 10 Software charts, since we no longer have good leaks on actural hardware number?

when both Sony and Microsoft stay quiet it makes for a very boring result

It hasn't been worth it for the software chart ever since number started to be cumulative across all platforms a game was released on. Software charts have been pretty much meaningless since then, aside from the rare occasion when a single-platform title pops up into it.

The hardware leaks/number calculations are the only meaningful thing left. And even that is, of course, a shadow of what it used to be.

 

[unapersson]

Yes, May is one of the lowest month in the year, it's undeniable, and numbers will get higher as the end of the year approaches, that's obvious, and that's something that we can say for each and every console. But it's also true that, while 197,000 units aren't certainly bad sales for the month, they're not either that great for the supposed leading home console in its first year on the market.

Didn't the PS2 launch at more of a mass market price? I would have thought that would have an impact on the numbers.

 

[Dire]

RE: 360 Late Blooming

Perhaps controversial but I think an issue at play last gen was also that the 360 was constantly competing against a mirage of the PS3. In a way that kind of hit a perfect storm. While it was becoming clear the PS3 wasn't really delivering on the "twice as many theoretical FLOPs means something in terms of real-world performance, honest!" marketing and was constantly putting out subpar versions of cross platforms and generally just not going to be the PS2 part 2 (or PS1 part 3) - the 360 rolled out a $199 SKU. Oh and in this is the same year the GTA 4 released with their implied exclusive 360 content, the 360 announced Final Fantasy 13 was coming to the 360 and they proceeded to roll out a whole slew of games that had something for just about every demographic.

The PS4's mindshare, on the other hand, can't really go up. In terms of consoles they are the more or less undisputed king. With the relatively low standard of hardware they should be able to rapidly drop the price, but I think the thing that's going to make or break this gen is going to be the software. Both companies seem to be going all in on shooters. I'd happily bet against that

Spoiler

in a rhetorical sense, you degen!

 

[Aquamarine]

It hasn't been worth it for the software chart ever since number started to be cumulative across all platforms a game was released on. Software charts have been pretty much meaningless since then, aside from the rare occasion when a single-platform title pops up into it.

The hardware leaks/number calculations are the only meaningful thing left. And even that is, of course, a shadow of what it used to be.

Maybe from the super-crazy-leak-everything days of early GAF, but it's been better this month than some months in the past. We have pretty much every console nailed down except for the dead-and-buried ones like Ouya, PSP and PS2.

 

[terrisus]

Maybe from the super-crazy-leak-everything days of early GAF, but it's been better this month than some months in the past. We have pretty much every console nailed down except for the dead-and-buried ones like Ouya, PSP and PS2.

Yeah, that's true I suppose, we do generally figure most everything out that actually matters on the hardware side.

I suppose I'm just bitter about the software sales that we get now, as the result of the "agreement" GAF had made with NPD to stop posting leaked numbers and NPD would give us "actual information" (and I think they had even said they would honor some requests for additional information too. That may just be my imagination though). And now... This is all we have left.

 

[Gestault]

Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.

How exactly did Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon show up on a Square-Enix sales data list?

 

[Aquamarine]

How exactly did Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon show up on a Square-Enix sales data list?

Didn't you hear?

Sakaguchi-directed titles are the REAL FF13 and FF14.

 

[Aquamarine]

Yeah, that's true I suppose, we do generally figure most everything out that actually matters on the hardware side.

I suppose I'm just bitter about the software sales that we get now, as the result of the "agreement" GAF had made with NPD to stop posting leaked numbers and NPD would give us "actual information" (and I think they had even said they would honor some requests for additional information too. That may just be my imagination though). And now... This is all we have left.

Wasn't SonyCowboy supposed to be some kind of NPD liaison or something?

Whatever happened to him?