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Official August 2007 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
JoshuaJSlone
Member
bdoughty said:
No doubt Wii's unit lead will expand significantly, but as a ratio thing I think supply issues may allow PS3 to actually be a bit closer by year end if it doesn't bomb November and December. Wiifelipeko said:
S3 ratio is something like 2.6:1 now, so Wii has to do at least that each month to stay even.Overall I don't know. Launch month: Wii 46 K > PS3 35K. It was a launch title for both systems, so the PS3 version was out 2 days sooner.Parl said:
It's true Wii had the hardware advantage of ~500K to ~200K that month... but by ratio their lead now is even bigger.
Oh, i just raised my hopes.. :lolJoshuaJSlone said:No doubt Wii's unit lead will expand significantly, but as a ratio thing I think supply issues may allow PS3 to actually be a bit closer by year end if it doesn't bomb November and December. Wii
Overall I don't know. Launch month: Wii 46 K > PS3 35K. It was a launch title for both systems, so the PS3 version was out 2 days sooner.
It's true Wii had the hardware advantage of ~500K to ~200K that month... but by ratio their lead now is even bigger.
I'm gone now!
JoshuaJSlone said:
In that case, why are people predicting that the PS3 version will sell LOADS more than the Wii version in August. I'm not saying it's illogical, because I haven't put much thought into it.
Wii Madden competition from Metroid? The only reason why Madden Wii 06 sold decently was because it was fresh because of the Wii-mote and thus, 08 isn't as fresh? Lack of competition for good games on PS3?
speculawyer
Member
I know I'm late for the official game, but here are my guesstimates:
[WII] 400k ****All bow down to the almighty Wii
[NDS] 380k ****The real new gen victor
[360] 250k ****Bump from price drop, Bioshock, and Halo 3 soon to be.
[PS2] 190k *****Die already!
[PSP] 195k ****Too bad PSP software doesn't do nearly as well. :-(
[PS3] 130k **** Biting my tongue to prevent more bannage.
[GBA] 80k ****Down goes GBA, DOWN GOES GBA!
[NGC] 6K *****Probably more are being sold used these days.
[XBX] 3 ****Not even Steve Balmer cares.
[WII] 400k ****All bow down to the almighty Wii
[NDS] 380k ****The real new gen victor
[360] 250k ****Bump from price drop, Bioshock, and Halo 3 soon to be.
[PS2] 190k *****Die already!
[PSP] 195k ****Too bad PSP software doesn't do nearly as well. :-(
[PS3] 130k **** Biting my tongue to prevent more bannage.
[GBA] 80k ****Down goes GBA, DOWN GOES GBA!
[NGC] 6K *****Probably more are being sold used these days.
[XBX] 3 ****Not even Steve Balmer cares.
Parl said:
I think some GAFers are just assuming that everyone who buys a Wii buys it for Wii Sports or Nintendo games, hence they won't be buying Madden. But Madden will do well on Wii. I think the tie ratio will definitely be higher on PS3, but the install base may ensure the Wii version reigns supreme. Either way, I predict 360 and PS2 at the top.
bdoughty said:
2 things:
- I'm basing it off of the fact Madden sold better last time (Not entirely sure if totally true). Why not this time? You reason is absurd by the fact it sold decently last year. Well, it sold pretty crap, but so did the PS3 version. Both sold poorly because of install base, or more specifically, because of the types of people who bought the console, and how many of them they were.
- The N64 and GC were marginalised in the market. SNES wasn't, but Genesis was more geared towards the types who would buy Madden.
pswii60 said:
Yeah, I'd also predict that the Wii version won't do too well, but will sell respectfully. But come on, the PS3 version isn't exactly gonna top the charts. But, I'm looking at last year's installments that said that if (hypothetically speaking) the Wii version has the same penetration ratio as last year. and the PS3 version has the same penetration ratio as last year, Wii version will sell more.
I too ain't predicting anything here. I'm just throwing some observations down here that I think some may not be taking into account. And if they have, and deemed them as not as relevant as I think, I'm basically wanting to know the reasons in the interest of discussion.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Sure, but these predictions show a big shift from last year. Places like Sim Exchange are predicting it will do worse now than when Wii had 1/3 its current userbase.bdoughty said:
That's pretty much what I'm thinking. For PS3 version to triple Wii version, either the Wii version was totally screwed up, or the million new PS3 owners this year are bigger Madden fans than the first few months of buyers were.pswii60 said:
Two things...
Many of the PS3 owners came from the PS2 and had already purchase the PS2 version. That probably affected sales in that the game was rented in place of a purchase.
The other thing (that started the whole lifetime ban bet) is that Nintendo owners have proven that they do not support multi year sports games the same way MS and Sony owners do.
Throw in the fact that this was the first Madden with the wiicontrol and you have a fresh new experience. Now you have that same experience, slightly tweaked. Something that does not bode well for a platform with a lack of sports gamers.
My reasoning is far from absurd.
Many of the PS3 owners came from the PS2 and had already purchase the PS2 version. That probably affected sales in that the game was rented in place of a purchase.
The other thing (that started the whole lifetime ban bet) is that Nintendo owners have proven that they do not support multi year sports games the same way MS and Sony owners do.
Throw in the fact that this was the first Madden with the wiicontrol and you have a fresh new experience. Now you have that same experience, slightly tweaked. Something that does not bode well for a platform with a lack of sports gamers.
My reasoning is far from absurd.
bdoughty said:
That's a nice observation you made there that could possibly be true. However, I'm not sure how much of the Madden market were/are also people wanting to buy a PS3 at $599. Madden 2001 on PSX outsold Madden 2001 on PS2; both titles released nearly a year after PS2's launch. I think it's also fair to say that the Wii version was also disadvantaged from being out much later than the other versions.
The same can be said for PlayStation owners with Virtual Fighter 5. The game sold poorly on PS3 and well on PS1/PS2. The reason was install base and the types of gamers within that install base. Same apples when it comes to comparing a successful console like SNES or Wii, to a much less successful console like N64 or GameCube. N64 and GC owners were generally large fans on Nintendo's first party software. SNES owners were that, and then many other types of gamers had SNES too, hence the much lower penetration ratio of Mario platformers on SNES (mainly due to higher hardware sales than lower software sales). Same applies to Wii. It's no coincidence that Madden sold better on Nintendo's successful consoles, and Madden has only yet to sell well on Sony's successful consoles (PS1 and PS2). In fact, Madden has pretty much done better on successful consoles. Wii is just that type of console.
A valid point, and one I brought up myself. I wanna try to argue for both sides here. Just having a good bit of discussion before NPD as I relax after a tiring day at college.
speculawyer
Member
pswii60 said:
Ironically (due to your name), I think that you are ignoring the effects of multiple-console owners. I think the multiple console owners are more likely to buy Madden for their PS3 and/or 360 than for their Wii. That way they get better graphics and a much better online experience. A few will opt for the Wii version because they like the Wii controls, but I think they'll be outweighed by those who go for the PS3/360 version.
Ironically (due to your name), I think that you are ignoring the effects of multiple-console owners. I think the multiple console owners are more likely to buy Madden for their PS3 and/or 360 than for their Wii. That way they get better graphics and a much better online experience. A few will opt for the Wii version because they like the Wii controls, but I think they'll be outweighed by those who go for the PS3/360 version.
Parl said:
I agree and disagree with this.
Madden is so successful on the 360 because sports gamers have proven they love pretty graphics with their gameplay. The 360 happened to be the first next-gen system out the door. Also online is a HUGE factor for many sports gamers. \
But HARDWARE sales do not guarantee success with EA Sports.
Now you look at the handhelds and the tried and true formula works great on the Sony PSP. The sales of Madden on the DS (the leader by a long margin in handheld gaming) lags FAR FAR behind. The similarities are numerous.
Nintendo fans are involved, you know the ones that are not big sports gamers.
Third Party sports games are not exactly blowing the doors off in terms of sales on the DS.
The PSP version is graphically superior to the DS version.
The DS version uses a different control scheme.
PSP sales of Madden >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DS sales of Madden
Does any of that sound familiar?
TheKingsCrown
Banned
I honestly don't see how anyone can expect madden to do well on Wii. 1. Its crappy with bugs that EA should have fixed; 2. Madden fans are huge graphix whores, and 360 is where its at for those peeps.
Gamecocks625
Member
donny2112 said:
We/They didn't know any better
I own all the systems and I bought the Wii version. I quickly returned it though when 75% of the way through a game it would say, "Lost connection with remote. Press a to return to title menu" or whatever it was. I don't think I finished a single game cause of that bug. Have they fixed it yet?
I didn't pick up the 360 or the PS3 version to replace it cause the old-school way is boring as hell to me at this point. Does that make me a wildcard consumer?
I didn't pick up the 360 or the PS3 version to replace it cause the old-school way is boring as hell to me at this point. Does that make me a wildcard consumer?
Opus Angelorum
Member
I'm excited, I've got popcorn and some ice cold Dr Pepper.
titiklabingapat
Member
Sonycowboy is eerily silent. NPD must be delayed
Gahiggidy
My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
Word on the street is that the numbers for Xbox 360 came out so low, so meager, that NPD doubts they are correct... and is re-running thier analysis.titiklabingapat said:Sonycowboy is eerily silent. NPD must be delayed
Stay tuned...
Anerythristic
Member
Gahiggidy said:
Are you just supposed to put him on your ignore list as a matter of fact ? Or is there a joke I don't get ?
GarthVaderUK
Banned
Malleymal said:
I believe so.
Beer Monkey
Member
Gahiggidy said:
Gahiggidy = Phoenix Down joke account confirmed.
Starchasing
Member
Stop It said:
Can i be notified when Tabris posts?
I beleive he is a true happening artist.
bdoughty said:
I'm most definitely not a hardcore sports gamer. Haven't been in a long time. That's what I'm curious about though, how many Wii consumers are picking up games that they normally wouldn't due to controls. Wildcards if you will.
Too much NPD comparitive goodness today.