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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Cheesemeister
Member
Tieno said:
You posted a code block with numbers on the first page.
Beer Monkey
Member
Odysseus said:
I think 360 had enough shortages of Pro and Elite SKUs that they could have sold a couple hundred thousand more than they did. Wherever they end up.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Wii-za said:
The low-end predictions for every console are all outrageously stupid. With the exception of Wii, all of them are lower than the actual November NPD totals.
CitizenCope
Member
What are us sales freaks more excited to see?
Hardware or Software?
There haven't been many surprises lately with hardware. It seems our estimates and the "Professionals" are close enough where we know just about what we are going to get.
Lately I think software has been more fun to follow.
Should be very interesting.
Hardware or Software?
There haven't been many surprises lately with hardware. It seems our estimates and the "Professionals" are close enough where we know just about what we are going to get.
Lately I think software has been more fun to follow.
Should be very interesting.
Cheesemeister
Member
Wii-za said:
I dunno, I haven't been tracking it. It might be something like 227 IIRC.
CitizenCope said:
The only hardware whose numbers I care about anymore is the PS3. As an owner, I'm nervous about the machine's future. IMO the best first party title on it is still Resistance, and I'm not real happy about that.
Otherwise, bring on the software NPD! I'm excited to see if the 360 GH3 > Wii GH3, and if any single 360 title can trump SMG.
And then there's the matter of UT3 for the PS3 and Rock Band, which I'm excited for but nervous about.
Link
The Autumn Wind
I don't think you have to worry so much. The PS3 will by default get a good percentage of 360 games from third parties, especially from Eastern developers. Sony has a lot of talented developers under them as well. Give it time. Not to mention they don't need to be as reliant on first party software as, say, Nintendo.Cheech said:
Randy Lanzarote
Member
I wonder what will be top of the pops in the software sales for December, that's what I'm most looking forward to. That, and seeing if any 'older titles manage to work their way back into the Top 10, or if we'll be looking at Nov releases only.
Last year, NPD released a Top Ten for December, Top Ten for the year (individual SKUs) and a Top Ten for the year (combined SKUs). Not all at once, though. If they do that again this year, it'll be interesting to see where all the multi-million selling combined SKUs line up at.
Indeed. The hardware is also more simple to track as we have visibility to all the systems every month, where as for software we lose track of games as they drop out of the top 10, or are not on the list of others that NPD provides. So the hardware can follow a complete thread, where as for specific titles, we don't have visibility and thus can only speculate. We can't talk about the sleeper hits, or the steady sellers that are just below the cut-off. Especially in December, when the #10 game will be in the hundreds of thousands, that means we lose sight of a lot of games that might have done well.RBH said:
On the hardware front, I'm most curious about the PS3. I'm interested to see if it followed seasonal patters, built on the November momentum added from the price drop or fall behind seasonal trend. The latter would imply the price cut gave the system a bump in November but won't be fully sustained. The Wii, DS and 360 will all be constrained by supply to various degrees.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Are we getting these numbers in a few hours?
Opus Angelorum
Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nice, I'll stay up the the fun.
Version 3.0
Member
RBH said:
I like the hardware. Software is great, and I snap at any tidbits we get, but as the software trickles in, the thread goes straight to "3rd parties don't sell on Wii" hell, and all the baggage that comes with it: what games are even worth buying, when and whether the "big shift" is going to happen, what bombed shouldn't have, or wouldn't have on other systems, whether the 3rd party games that have done well "count" or are some kind of special case...and so on.
FirstInHell
Banned
I just hope that there is something that is unexpected. Nothing can top NPD meltdowns and spin for sheer entertainment value.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
xblarcade said:
Based on the IGN Wii LTDs, public NPD data, and selective leaked data (for the reason that leaked data is included, I will round to the nearest 100k so as to disguise the nature and number of data that is not allowed to be used), the INDIVIDUAL SKU top 10 would include.
Halo 3 (~4.1 million + December)
Wii Play (~3.0 million + December)
Call of Duty 4 360 (~1.6m + December)
Mario Party 8 (~1.4 million + December)
Madden 360 (~1.1 million + December)
Super Mario Galaxy (~1.1 million + December)
Guitar Hero 2 360 (~1.0 million + December, data might be off by a bit)
Assassin's Creed 360 (~0.9 million + December)
Guitar Hero 3 360 (~0.9 million + December--but this might be thrown off by the fact that individual SKUs might separate GH3 and GH3 w/guitar)
Super Paper Mario (~0.8 million + December)
That's what I have. Now, if you include the DS/PSP, Diddy Kong Racing and Pokemon DP should both be there. I'm also ignoring the possibility that anything not on the top 10 going into December would overtake any of these.
Resistance is around 600k year to date (missing November AFAIK) and I don't have numbers for MotorStorm past month one. With an aggressive December Assassin's Creed and COD4 could potentially also be up in the contender range.
The hints trickle in between the NPD release and when the press embargo lifts. The market hasn't closed yet, so the NPD data hasn't been sent out. Soon, though. Very soon.Robert R1 said:Only about 2.5hours away and no hints from the usual suspects about the biggest month of the year!? this makes me a sad panda
I'm hoping that we get some more comprehensive software charts in order to get a better picture on how certain games are faring. And I'm also most curious about the PS3 as far as the hardware goes for not only December NPD, but Jan. and Feb. as well.GhaleonEB said:
Yeah, I'm also really sick of the Wii 3rd party arguments, as they've been just done to death (especially in the media-create threads).Leondexter said:
Opus Angelorum
Member
Hey GhaleonEB, off-topic but will you be attending GDC this year?
Beer Monkey
Member
Tom_Cody said:
It's like Christmas in Hawaii with supermodels.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
I really anticipating this...
It's my first prediction in Neogaf,after all....
It's my first prediction in Neogaf,after all....
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
radjago said:
Uh, no. It sold ludicruously well. Like I said, I don't keep tabs on DKR DS so I don't have a number for it, but it charted NPD-wise a few times and remained on the top 10 DS titles for most of the year. Nintendo's numbers have it having shipped >1 million as of July and it was never released in Japan. I can guarantee you that America made up the lion's share of those sales.
Zelda: PH could make it too with a good December.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
xblarcade said:
PS2 had >=5 last year (had 5 of the top 10, all of the top 10 were million selling). In 2003, 2004, and 2005 the PS2 had 6 of the top 10 each year, but it's unclear to me if it had more million sellers more (IE more than 10 titles sold a million) or fewer (IE not all of the top 10 sold a million).
This year the entire top 10 will be at or on the cusp of a million.
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