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Official Feb NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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Insane Metal

Insane Metal

Member
djtiesto said:
DS: 375k
Wii: 335k
360: 280k
PSP: 250k
PS2: 245k
GBA: 220k
PS3: 190k
Cube: 10k
Xbox: 3k

Big sellers: Sonic and the Secret Rings, Crackdown, Lost Planet, Wii Play, VF5, and some sports games that I don't care about =P
Click to expand...

Very realistic numbers IMO. :)
 
F

FrankT

Member
Fuzzy said:
Read the whole thing, not just the bolded parts.


There's no way it did well enough in February in order to do that.
Click to expand...

It doesn't mention anything of January software attach rates. Unless there is a link to this information which at this time there isn't. 2.4 is a mean for the month of February, unless of course that is the attach rate per console for January and they extrapolate the attach rate to February? Nothing stated on last month. Like I said it says similar, there are no hard numbers for each console in this article for January.

February 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 20% Sales Growth

We expect February U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, March 15. We forecast sales of $415 million, up 20% compared to last year’s $345 million. There is some risk to variance from our estimate, as it is based on month-over-month flat sales forecasts for the PS3 and Wii. Should sales of those platforms materially differ from weekly sales levels in January, there may be upside or downside to our software sales growth estimates.

Our estimate reflects $240 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $140 million, or 141%. We expect current generation software sales of $175 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of $70 million (-29%).

Our forecast presumes sell through of 200,000 PS3 and 350,000 Wii hardware systems, with an attach rate of 2.4 software units. These figures reflect flat hardware sales month-over-month, adjusted for the extra week in January.

Our overall estimates assume PS2 software sales of $120 million, and presume that strong sales trends continue (PS2 software sales were down only 7% last month on a pro forma basis).

We note that our estimates include $70 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of 2.4 units for each hardware unit sold (350,000 Wii hardware units x $50 ASP x 2.4 plus 200,000 PS3 hardware units x $60 ASP x 2.4). Our expected tie ratio is similar to last month’s 2.2 tie ratio for the Wii and 2.7 tie ratio for the PS3.

We expect February sales to be driven by continued strong sales of Activision’s Guitar Hero II along with other top holiday releases. The top February releases were Take-Two’s MLB 2K7 (PS3, PS2, 360, PSP), Sega’s Virtua Fighter 5 (PS3), Microsoft’s Crackdown (360) and Electronic Arts’ The Sims 2 Seasons (PC). We note that 10 games sold over 100,000 units in January, and we expect seven in February (compared to five last year).

We expect the recent sales strength on the PS2 to continue through at least March, given strong sell-through performance over the past eight months and negative high teen percentage comparisons for the next two months. We note that the negative comparisons for PS2 software sales reverse in April, making continued sales strength less likely at that time. Due to the high level of software support expected for the PS2 platform for the foreseeable future, we expect only modest year-over-year declines (approximately 20%) for the first half of 2007. The degree of decline in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation.
Click to expand...
 
G

Ganondorf>Link

Member
Hardware:

DS - 350,000
Wii - 320,000
PS2 - 240,000
X360 - 230,000
PS3 - 195,000
PSP - 180,000
GBA - 165,000
GCN - 21,000

Software:

Crackdown - 420,000
Wii Play - 250,000
Gears of War - 150,000
Lost Planet - 140,000
Zelda Wii - 138,000
Resistance - 120,000
Zelda GC - 115,000
Sonic Wii - 102,000
Virtua Fighter 5 - 89,000
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Jtyettis said:
It doesn't mention anything of January software attach rates. Unless there is a link to this information which at this time there isn't. 2.4 is a mean for the month of February, unless of course that is the attach rate per console for January and they extrapolate the attach rate to February? Nothing stated on last month. Like I said it says similar, there are no hard numbers for each console in this article for January.
Click to expand...
We note that our estimates include $70 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of 2.4 units for each hardware unit sold (350,000 Wii hardware units x $50 ASP x 2.4 plus 200,000 PS3 hardware units x $60 ASP x 2.4). Our expected tie ratio is similar to last month’s 2.2 tie ratio for the Wii and 2.7 tie ratio for the PS3.
Click to expand...
2.4 is Pachter's estimated combined tie ratio for the Wii+PS3 in February while 2.2 and 2.7 were the actual tie ratios for those two respective consoles in January.
 
F

FrankT

Member
Fuzzy said:
2.4 is Pachter's estimated combined tie ratio for the Wii+PS3 in February while 2.2 and 2.7 were the actual tie ratios for those two respective consoles in January.
Click to expand...

So basically they're similar enough he doesn't provide any estimate for the February attach rate. Or at least there isn't any listed here if that is the January.
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Jtyettis said:
So basically they're similar enough he doesn't provide any estimate for the February attach rate. Or at least there isn't any listed here if that is the January.
Click to expand...
He hasn't ever listed separate estimates for the Wii and PS3 tie ratios.
 
M

mj1108

Member
I predict that the NPD thread will end up an even bigger cluster**** of a thread than the last one when it comes to numbers being reported, where they're being reported, where they're posted and exactly what can be said.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Results for January NPD Predictions

Main (7 consoles; all but XBX and GCN)

1. sonycowboy - 173K
2. GhaleonEB - 216K
3. AirBrian - 266K
4. argon - 276K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 276K

Next-Gen Consoles (i.e. get rid of those awful, supply-constrained NDS sales' differences :lol )

1. Clever Pun - 44K
2. argon - 51K
3. donny2112 - 61K
4. sonycowboy - 69K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 79K
6. GhaleonEB - 98K
7. AirBrian - 99K


Congratulations, sonycowboy! :D



Predictions (Mine for February)

1. NDS - 332K
2. WII - 300K
3. PS2 - 264K
4. 360 - 224K
5. PS3 - 176K
6. PSP - 164K
7. GBA - 130K
8. GCN - 20.8K
9. XBX - 0.6K
 
M

Mr Killemgood

Member
Wii - 325,000
NDS - 315,000
X360 - 275,000
PS2 - 269,000
PS3 - 205,000
PSP - 175,000

Games:

Crackdown - 725,000 (beat out GOW on mygamercard.net 1st and 2nd weeks, no other game has done this since launch)
Guitar Hero - 195,000
Wii Play - 175,000
Gears of War - 165,000
VF5 - 155,000
Lost Planet - 150,000
LoZ:TP - 145,000
MLB2k6 - 135,000 (360)
Resistance:FoM - 115,000

You should do the Feb. Predict at VGCharts.org before it closes so you can actually get your %s easily!
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
donny2112 said:
Results for January NPD Predictions

Main (7 consoles; all but XBX and GCN)

1. sonycowboy - 173K
2. GhaleonEB - 216K
3. AirBrian - 266K
4. argon - 276K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 276K

Next-Gen Consoles (i.e. get rid of those awful, supply-constrained NDS sales' differences :lol )

1. Clever Pun - 44K
2. argon - 51K
3. donny2112 - 61K
4. sonycowboy - 69K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 79K
6. GhaleonEB - 98K
7. AirBrian - 99K
Click to expand...
Wow. That's the first time I've ever charted. :lol

Thanks for tallying those up.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Wow. That's the first time I've ever charted. :lol

Thanks for tallying those up.
Click to expand...

I think I got 2nd or 3rd once last year and that was it. I always nail a bunch of the systems, and get one of them way off.
 
Zoe

Zoe

Member
schuelma said:
The DS didn't sell much last month because of limited supply. Many people are assuming the supply went up.
Click to expand...

Maybe because it did? It's been readily available in my area for almost two months now. You might not get the color you want at each store, but at least one store in the area will have it.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Wii 320k
DS 280k
360 220k
PS2 240k
PS3 200k
PSP 170k
GBA 140k
GCN 20k

Games:

Crackdown > 500k
Sonic > 150k
Wii Play > 200k
Virtua Fighter 5
 
A

Akira

Member
I must've missed something, but do you guys really think Crackdown will sell up to over 500,000? I didn't know it was that big of a seller, even with Halo 3 Beta.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Akira said:
I must've missed something, but do you guys really think Crackdown will sell up to over 500,000? I didn't know it was that big of a seller, even with Halo 3 Beta.
Click to expand...

The 360 always has its flavor of the month. The hardcore userbase ensures at least one big game sells over 200k upon its release. Fight Night Round 3, GRAW, Elder Scrolls IV, Dead Rising, Gears of War, Lost Planet, etc
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Akira said:
I must've missed something, but do you guys really think Crackdown will sell up to over 500,000? I didn't know it was that big of a seller, even with Halo 3 Beta.
Click to expand...
MS has made allusions to it doing well. I think it was Peter Moore that said the debut was "very, very strong". After an interview with Shane Kim, Luke at 1up said the Crackdown NPD would make everyone say "oh. my. god", or something to that effect.

The demo + H3 beta gave it a massive boost. I'm personally predicting ~400k.

Also, what Anihawk said.
 
xaosslug

xaosslug

Member
Mrbob said:
Crackdown!

Only a couple more days until the game officially wins next gen! Or at least the month of February! :D
Click to expand...
:lol

you've got to feel somewhat vindicated, considering you seemed like the game's lone cheerleader since way back.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
GhaleonEB said:
MS has made allusions to it doing well. I think it was Peter Moore that said the debut was "very, very strong". After an interview with Shane Kim, Luke at 1up said the Crackdown NPD would make everyone say "oh. my. god", or something to that effect.

The demo + H3 beta gave it a massive boost. I'm personally predicting ~400k.

Also, what Anihawk said.
Click to expand...

Lost Planet did 400k in January. Tis had way more hype than that. I'm not the guessing type, but this once, I'm going to say 700k for Crackdown.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Sean said:
Wii - 380k
360 - 240k
PS3 - 215k

Crackdown - 360,000
Sonic Wii - 250,000
Virtua Fighter 5 - 110,000
Click to expand...

Double your Crackdown numbers. Half the Sonic/VF5 numbers. Then you might be onto something.

Crackdown - 720k
Sonic - 125k
VF5 - 55k

I'll take a crack at hardware, too:

Wii - 300k
360 - 200k
PS3 - 150k

I think all three hardware numbers will be low due to the 4-week reporting period as compared to January.
 
C

Clever Pun

Member
donny2112 said:
Results for January NPD Predictions

Main (7 consoles; all but XBX and GCN)

1. sonycowboy - 173K
2. GhaleonEB - 216K
3. AirBrian - 266K
4. argon - 276K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 276K

Next-Gen Consoles (i.e. get rid of those awful, supply-constrained NDS sales' differences :lol )

1. Clever Pun - 44K
2. argon - 51K
3. donny2112 - 61K
4. sonycowboy - 69K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 79K
6. GhaleonEB - 98K
7. AirBrian - 99K


Congratulations, sonycowboy! :D
Click to expand...

damn DS screwed me up so bad!

I guess I better predict something now...

Wii 365k
360 245k
ps3 195k

PS2 240k
GCube 22k

NDS 330k
PSP 175k
GBA 150k
 
A

Arsenal

Member
mj1108 said:
I predict that the NPD thread will end up an even bigger cluster**** of a thread than the last one when it comes to numbers being reported, where they're being reported, where they're posted and exactly what can be said.
Click to expand...

You're hardly going out on a limb with that one :lol
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
Lost Planet did 400k in January. Tis had way more hype than that. I'm not the guessing type, but this once, I'm going to say 700k for Crackdown.
Click to expand...
Hype is hard to judge, though. Lost Planet got a huge boost with the E3 demo last year, and had good buzz through the MP demo up until launch. Crackdown ramped up only in the last couple of months, with the demo and H3 beta invite. I think I'm being a little conservative with 400k, but 700k is a lot for any game. That would be the biggest debut for the 360 next to Gears of War.
 
A

Arsenal

Member
Akira said:
I must've missed something, but do you guys really think Crackdown will sell up to over 500,000? I didn't know it was that big of a seller, even with Halo 3 Beta.
Click to expand...

On the XBL charts that Microsoft puts out, its ranked second this week behind only Gears. It honestly looks like it could be somewhat close to Gears numbers for its first month, which is quite impressive for a Feb release, although I imagine the sales will fall off fast.


PS. Its going to be funny when there are a million+ people in the Halo 3 "beta". I mean, wtf...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Arsenal said:
PS. Its going to be funny when there are a million+ people in the Halo 3 "beta". I mean, wtf...
Click to expand...
I suspect most of what is being tested will be server load, matchmaking, party and other systems that require a large pool to test. And it will be a pittance compared to the launch of the full game. :D
 
C

CoryCubed

Member
Hmm... I'll go

NDS -340,000
Wii - 376,000
PS3 - 239,000
Xbox 360 - 211,000
PSP - 155,000

and for game I pick Sonic.

Sonic Wii - 238,000
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
PhoenixDark said:
History tells me to just lowball analist numbers. Therefore:
Click to expand...

Haha, I lowball analyst numbers on the consoles I like, and highball them on the ones I don't... that usually works pretty well :D
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
GhaleonEB said:
I suspect most of what is being tested will be server load, matchmaking, party and other systems that require a large pool to test. And it will be a pittance compared to the launch of the full game. :D
Click to expand...

Halo 3 lite to some people as well.
 
R

rage1973

Member
Going by what we saw of January sales, there is no way PS3 is going to surpass 200k this month. February is always a down month over January and factoring in 5 week month and 4 week month and now I changed my PS3 prediction to 170k.
 
A

Axord

Member
mylilbuddy said:
You know how everyone jokes about sony takiing idas from others all the time? Well, I think the stole Nintendos business model on hardware...
Click to expand...
Except for that tiny detail about raking in profit every step of the way.
 
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