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Official Feb NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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Azelover

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
NDS:350k
PS2: 320k
360: 270k
Wii: 240k
PS3: 230k
GBA: 160k
PSP: 140k

Worldwide shipments of the Wii in the first quarter are ridiculous, so unless they managed to produce more(highly doubt it), it's unrealistic to expect sales to be as high as they were in January, since that month also benefited from the delay of huge December shipments caused by the strap issue. March should be no different, they need to get production way up.
 
M

MiamiWesker

Member
Might as well. The seven games will be Crackdown, Gears, VF5, Sonic, GH2, Zelda:TP Wii, LP.

Hardware:

Wii - 332k
360 - 221k
PS3 - 215k
DS - 230k
PSP - 167k
GBA - 130k
PS2 - 245k
 
M

mylilbuddy

Banned
Axord said:
Except for that tiny detail about raking in profit every step of the way.
Click to expand...


true, but I think they will profit off hardware longer than in the past....look at the psp for one...havent seen prices dropping yet....I think ps3 will follow this plan. Course the blu-ray drive by itself will drop in price faster than snot, so we shall see.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
When did Wii Play come out? I think it's going to outsell every game (sans Crackdown) this month and in March, if you look on Amazon it's still outselling GOW2 (!!!) which just came out today. Are people just not counting it as a game?
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
When did Wii Play come out? I think it's going to outsell every game (sans Crackdown) this month and in March, if you look on Amazon it's still outselling GOW2 (!!!) which just came out today. Are people just not counting it as a game?
Click to expand...


GAF, as a collective, still doesn't understand the Wii. Give them some time.
 
G

GoldenEye 007

Member
chibcicylist said:
Does NPD count Wii Play as a software unit or an accessory unit?
Click to expand...
I'd think it would be a game since this is well, a game. You're just getting a really cheap controller with it. Even though it is the GAF perspective that you're getting a really cheap game with a controller.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
GoldenEye 007 said:
I'd think it would be a game since this is well, a game. You're just getting a really cheap controller with it. Even though it is the GAF perspective that you're getting a really cheap game with a controller.
Click to expand...

But you are getting a really cheap game with a controller.

Also...why in the hell does anyone think VF5 will sell anything?!?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
GoldenEye 007 said:
I'd think it would be a game since this is well, a game. You're just getting a really cheap controller with it. Even though it is the GAF perspective that you're getting a really cheap game with a controller.
Click to expand...
They'll probaby track it as game, just as they tracked Guitar Hero II (with controller) last month and Guitar Hero before it. And Donkey Konga, and....
 
xaosslug

xaosslug

Member
The Innocent X said:
BlimBlim also gave the game lots of love, even when others were doubting it.
Click to expand...

yeah, but MrBob bore the brunt of the Crackdown clowning, IMO, and I began to see him as the game's mascot after a while.
 
M

maxmars

Member
mmlemay said:
But you are getting a really cheap game with a controller.

Also...why in the hell does anyone think VF5 will sell anything?!?
Click to expand...

I don't know in the US, but in Italy the SKU refers to a game with a free controller. Probably they did this to make software sales look better.
 
M

mclem

Member
DS - 350k (probably supply will prove this one wrong)
Wii - 325k (and this one)
360 - 300k
PS2 - 225k
PS3 - 175k
PSP - 175k

I expect the 360 to jump above the Wii if the supply issues cause problems; I've no idea what the situation's like over there, but it's still quite hard to get one in Europe.
 
G

gth

Neo Member
mclem said:
I expect the 360 to jump above the Wii if the supply issues cause problems; I've no idea what the situation's like over there, but it's still quite hard to get one in Europe.
Click to expand...

Wow, you checked whole europe?

Not saying its not true (well like stated before its easy to grab one in Switzerland...) but you sound as have access to shipment numbers for each country.
 
A

AirBrian

Member
donny2112 said:
Results for January NPD Predictions

Main (7 consoles; all but XBX and GCN)

1. sonycowboy - 173K
2. GhaleonEB - 216K
3. AirBrian - 266K
4. argon - 276K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 276K

Next-Gen Consoles (i.e. get rid of those awful, supply-constrained NDS sales' differences :lol )

1. Clever Pun - 44K
2. argon - 51K
3. donny2112 - 61K
4. sonycowboy - 69K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 79K
6. GhaleonEB - 98K
7. AirBrian - 99K

Congratulations, sonycowboy! :D
Click to expand...
Thanks for adding those up, donny. :) I hope you have an Excel sheet or something to make it easier. :lol

My February predictions:

WII 300K
NDS 275K
360 225K
PS3 200K
PS2 200K
PSP 150K
GBA 125K
GCN 25K
XBX 10K
 
M

mclem

Member
gth said:
Wow, you checked whole europe?

Not saying its not true (well like stated before its easy to grab one in Switzerland...) but you sound as have access to shipment numbers for each country.
Click to expand...

Fair point. Needless to say, I haven't! Perhaps it's best if I juggle it around and say that in my experience it has proven thus far impossible for me to get one in the UK.

Perhaps I ought to visit Switzerland.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
donny2112 said:
Results for January NPD Predictions

Main (7 consoles; all but XBX and GCN)

1. sonycowboy - 173K
2. GhaleonEB - 216K
3. AirBrian - 266K
4. argon - 276K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 276K


Congratulations, sonycowboy! :D
Click to expand...

Rachel%20crowning.jpg
 
A

Arsenal

Member
maxmars said:
I don't know in the US, but in Italy the SKU refers to a game with a free controller. Probably they did this to make software sales look better.
Click to expand...

Which is actually quite genius in and of itself and I guarantee you we will be seeing more accessory/software packaging in the future from all these companies.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
rage1973 said:
Sonycowboy did you get confirmation whether we are getting NPD numbers tomorrow or will it be delayed again?
Click to expand...

They didn't announce the delay until the 11th hour last month. However, I would expect them to be released on time this month.
 
B

Burnst

Member
sonycowboy said:
They didn't announce the delay until the 11th hour last month. However, I would expect them to be released on time this month.
Click to expand...
Did they mention the reason for the delay?
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
AdmiralViscen said:
Yes, with the release of its Spring tentpole that was flying off the shelves, 360 will see its lowest sales since launch.
Click to expand...
Incorrect. 185K would be an increase from February 2006's 161K.

As I've said before, when making the prediction for 2007 as a whole I made a rough set of monthly numbers. Here are those for February 2007.

Me said:
Wii: 327K
GBA: 120K
DS: 260K
PS2: 209K
PS3: 183K
PSP: 153K
X360: 161K
Click to expand...

However, considering events between then and now, here are my current guesses:

Wii: 340K
GBA: 140K
DS: 300K
PS2: 260K
PS3: 183K
PSP: 186K
X360: 240K
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
Last month, it was a mess and EVERY OTHER WEBSITE KNOWN TO MAN had the numbers before GAF did. What's the point of an "alliance" if that's the results we're going to get? If this happens again this month, we can just assume that NPD just screwed GAF and its users. They got what they wanted (bans for posting the numbers), but we get NOTHING.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
VanMardigan said:
Last month, it was a mess and EVERY OTHER WEBSITE KNOWN TO MAN had the numbers before GAF did. What's the point of an "alliance" if that's the results we're going to get? If this happens again this month, we can just assume that NPD just screwed GAF and its users. They got what they wanted (bans for posting the numbers), but we get NOTHING.
Click to expand...
The simple reality is, GAF is not allowed to post NPD data which NPD does not make public, or face legal action. We are in a position where we have to take what NPD gives us. The fact that NPD is even entertains communicating directly with us, when GAF has been a main source of leaking their proprietary research for years, is actually kind of amazing. I'm surprised they are working directly with us at all. Hopefully the communication gets better, but at the end of the day, NPD doesn't have to give us anything.
 
B

bunkum

Member
Game Boy Advance 120k
Nintendo DS 240k
PlayStation 2 215k
PlayStation 3 175k
PlayStation Portable 150k
Wii 350k
Xbox 360 205k
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
GhaleonEB said:
The simple reality is, GAF is not allowed to post NPD data which NPD does not make public, or face legal action. We are in a position where we have to take what NPD gives us. The fact that NPD is even entertains communicating directly with us, when GAF has been a main source of leaking their proprietary research for years, is actually kind of amazing. I'm surprised they are working directly with us at all. Hopefully the communication gets better, but at the end of the day, NPD doesn't have to give us anything.
Click to expand...


I think that a part of them likes to be superstars in how we wait for this.
 
S

szaromir

Banned
Game Boy Advance 160k
Nintendo DS 300k
PlayStation 2 270k
PlayStation 3 180k
PlayStation Portable 150k
Wii 330k
Xbox 360 220k
GCN 20k
Xbox 4k
 
B

Bungalow Bob

Banned
donny2112 said:
Results for January NPD Predictions

Next-Gen Consoles (i.e. get rid of those awful, supply-constrained NDS sales' differences :lol )

1. Clever Pun - 44K
2. argon - 51K
3. donny2112 - 61K
4. sonycowboy - 69K
5. JoshuaJSlone - 79K
6. GhaleonEB - 98K
7. AirBrian - 99K
Click to expand...

Actually I came in 2nd place (assuming only PS3, 360 and Wii are included here). I was 47k off.

As for this month, I predict:
PS3 185k
PS2 238k
360 243k
Wii 350k
GBA 155k
DS 350k
PSP 168k
 
D

donny2112

Member
Bungalow Bob said:
Actually I came in 2nd place (assuming only PS3, 360 and Wii are included here). I was 47k off.
Click to expand...

I think by the time I got to your prediction (there were a lot of predictions for January), I was tired of recording people who didn't make close to full predictions, since they had no chance at the "Main" title. (If you don't predict for a console, I assume you think it will sell zero, which pretty much screws over your chances.) The second part was just a flippancy, as sonycowboy was the real winner.

I wasn't trying to slight you, in particular.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Pureauthor said:
Ooh... one more day.

Internet meltdowns and firestorms ahoy!
Click to expand...
I'm expecting this month to look a lot like last month, at least as far as rankings go. Most people seem to as well, so I don't anticipate any meltdowns. Of course, there's usually some surprises to spice things up.
 
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