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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
Click to expand...
This is the best ****ing post in the entire ****ing thread. You pukes had better read it.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Parl said:
Forza 2 - 125k
Pokemon - 2.3m total
Mario Party 8 - 130k

Hardware

DS ... wild as last month
Wii = PS2 x 2
360 > PS2
360 = PSP x 1.5
PSP > PS3 x 2
PS3 > GBA
Click to expand...

Parl, could you put those analyst numbers in a quote block? It's messing with your predictions and the List of Shame. Thanks.

List of Shame said:
perfectchaos007
Heidir
Sule
Parl
VanMardigan
underfooter
The M.O.B
Cedeo
Mrbob
the thoroughbred
Patton
Click to expand...
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
TwinsDad said:
NDS] 501k
Click to expand...

scionguyXB said:
(NDS) 500,000 (sold a bunch for mothers day)
(wii) 390,000
(xbox360) 160,000
(psp) 145,000
(ps2) 130,000
(gba) 81,000
(ps3) 79,000
Click to expand...

Merovingian said:
[Xbox 360] 200k
[Ps3] 120k
[Wii] 300k
Click to expand...

Ruh-roh.

Square2005 said:
[GC] 9.8 thousand
Click to expand...

This gets read as 98. You want to list 9800.

Gozan said:
[DS] 9000k
[Wii] 8000k
[PS2] 3000k
[360] 4000k
[PSP] 10
[GBA] 1000k
[PS3] 5
[GC] 1000k


Shilling for Pachter to throw Gaf's numbers off!
Click to expand...

Yeah, you're disqualified. If there are no objections.

Alexander said:
[PS3] 86.5k
Click to expand...

The parser reads this as 865,000 due to ignoring periods for the Europeans. I'm starting to lean towards handling decimals and giving Europeans really low predictions if they list something like 865.000.
 
Brofist

Brofist

Member
[DS] 460,000
[Wii] 370,000
[PS2] 210,000
[360] 200,000
[PSP] 170,000
[PS3] 90,000
[GBA] 70,000
[GC] 8,000

edit: added GC numbers
 
P

Parl

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Parl, could you put those analyst numbers in a quote block? It's messing with your predictions and the List of Shame. Thanks.
Click to expand...

Fixed. Thanks, I thought it'd just ignore them as I thought they required [] brackets.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
djtiesto said:
[GBA] 87.5k
Click to expand...

Another decimal. Ugh.

Some interesting info...

the parser said:
Number of contestants: 158

PS2 - Avg. = 187,568; Min = 17,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 285,000 by AzureNightmareXE
PSP - Avg. = 169,111; Min = 25,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 240,000 by CoryCubed
PS3 - Avg. = 82,885; Min = 4 by Gahiggidy; Max = 865,000 by Alexander
XBX - Avg. = 801; Min = 3 by Michan; Max = 2,000 by Diablos54
360 - Avg. = 178,119; Min = 3 by Gahiggidy; Max = 247,000 by jarrod
GBA - Avg. = 84,189; Min = 52,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 875,000 by djtiesto
NGC - Avg. = 11,299; Min = 98 by Square2005; Max = 119,000 by Gahiggidy
NDS - Avg. = 439,155; Min = 305,000 by Dizzan; Max = 550,000 by JavyOO7
WII - Avg. = 344,898; Min = 200,000 by Sho_Nuff82; Max = 795,000 by Gahiggidy
Click to expand...
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Sgt. Killjoy said:
without having read any of this thread:

NDS: 450,000
Wii: 300,000
PS2: 250,000
Xbox 360: 230,000
PSP: 210,000
GBA: 90,000
PS3: 80,000(Yea, i went there)
GCN: 5,000
Click to expand...

Please edit your post to use the parser format. Thank you.
 
P

Parl

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Another decimal. Ugh.

Some interesting info...
Click to expand...

Hmm.. There's some odd numbers on there. Am I sure I'm reading it correctly but it says I have 22 for Wii.

Parl said:
[NDS] 485K
[WII] 346K
[360] 206K - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[PS2] 176K
[PSP] 142K (You will say WOW.)
[PS3] 65K
[GBA] 57K

[GCN] 10K
Click to expand...
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Ruh-roh.


The parser reads this as 865,000 due to ignoring periods for the Europeans. I'm starting to lean towards handling decimals and giving Europeans really low predictions if they list something like 865.000.
Click to expand...

Not all of us Europeans use periods like that, some of us use commas.

Dont lump us all together :D , it would be like herding cats... <insert cat picture>
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Parl said:
Hmm.. There's some odd numbers on there. Am I sure I'm reading it correctly but it says I have 22 for Wii.
Click to expand...

Found the bug. I wasn't handling the "Quote:" variation on quote blocks.

PhoenixDark said:
Wii: 375,000
PS2: 230,000
Xbox 360: 215,000
DS: 400,000
PS3: 90,000
PSP: 180,000
GBA: 75,000
Click to expand...

I didn't expect this from you. Please use the parser format. I don't know how many times I can say it.

Vagabundo said:
Not all of us Europeans use periods like that, some of us use commas.

Dont lump us all together :D , it would be like herding cats... <insert cat picture>
Click to expand...

I didn't mean to offend you; I simply haven't seen anyone outside of Europe ever use periods instead of commas to mark the thousands places.
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Wii: 375,000
PS2: 230,000
Xbox 360: 215,000
DS: 400,000
PS3: 90,000
PSP: 180,000
GBA: 75,000
Click to expand...
6hduqdt.gif
 
K

KevinRo

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Another decimal. Ugh.

Some interesting info...

the parser said:
Number of contestants: 153

PS2 - Avg. = 186,531; Min = 185 by Sule; Max = 285,000 by AzureNightmareXE
PSP - Avg. = 167,450; Min = 160 by Sule; Max = 240,000 by CoryCubed
PS3 - Avg. = 82,533; Min = 4 by Gahiggidy; Max = 865,000 by Alexander
XBX - Avg. = 801; Min = 3 by Michan; Max = 2,000 by Diablos54
360 - Avg. = 174,677; Min = 3 by Gahiggidy; Max = 247,000 by jarrod
GBA - Avg. = 83,960; Min = 80 by Sule; Max = 875,000 by djtiesto
NGC - Avg. = 11,248; Min = 15 by Sule; Max = 119,000 by Gahiggidy
NDS - Avg. = 435,616; Min = 490 by Sule; Max = 550,000 by JavyOO7
WII - Avg. = 339,597; Min = 22 by Parl; Max = 795,000 by Gahiggidy
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

can that be right? do you count no units sold as a minimum because i'm sure many people have the original xbx selling nothing.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
KevinRo said:
can that be right? do you count no units sold as a minimum because i'm sure many people have the original xbx selling nothing.
Click to expand...

Right now, I'm handling non-guesses and predictions of 0 the same way, by excluding them from the avg/min/max numbers. They'll still count towards rankings if we actually get numbers. I'm open to suggestions, of course.

And now, the List of Shame...

List of Shame said:
perfectchaos007
Heidir
VanMardigan
scionguyXB
underfooter
The M.O.B
Cedeo
Mrbob
the thoroughbred
Patton
Sgt. Killjoy
PhoenixDark
Click to expand...
 
L

LiquidMamba

Member
LiquidMamba said:
[NDS] 420,000
[WII] 330,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PSP] 170,000
[360] 165,000
[PS3] 78,000
[GBA] 75,000
[GCN] 10,000
Click to expand...

cvxfreak said:
[NDS] 420,000
[WII] 330,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PSP] 170,000
[360] 165,000
[PS3] 78,000
[GBA] 75,000
[GCN] 10,000
Click to expand...

I notice some similarities.
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Cheesemeister said:
I didn't mean to offend you; I simply haven't seen anyone outside of Europe ever use periods instead of commas to mark the thousands places.
Click to expand...

No offense taken, of course. Periods use this way make my eyes bleed too. It is those crazy continentals, not us islanders.
 
P

Parl

Member
Vagabundo said:
No offense taken, of course. Periods use this way make my eyes bleed too. It is those crazy continentals, not us islanders.
Click to expand...

Well, it's only because you're not used to it (me too). It's like how I'm now near enough used to people saying "period" instead of "full stop". It's one of the less cringeworthy differences between the English language and the American language, however.
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Parl said:
Well, it's only because you're not used to it (me too). It's like how I'm now near enough used to people saying "period" instead of "full stop". It's one of the less cringeworthy differences between the English language and the American language, however.
Click to expand...

Yeah it felt awkward to type in for me, but I didnt want to start more confusion by referring to Full Stops. :D
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Maxwell House said:
Are you taking out the outliers (like 4 PS3s sold and 865,000 PS3s sold) before calculating the averages?
Click to expand...

If djtiesto and Alexander are removed from consideration due to using periods and guesses under 100 units are ignored...

the parser said:
Number of contestants: 160

PS2 - Avg. = 187,729; Min = 17,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 285,000 by AzureNightmareXE
PSP - Avg. = 169,220; Min = 25,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 240,000 by CoryCubed
PS3 - Avg. = 78,373; Min = 50,000 by Cruceh; Max = 155,000 by underfooter
XBX - Avg. = 916; Min = 122 by jamesinclair; Max = 2,000 by Diablos54
360 - Avg. = 179,883; Min = 112,000 by DiatribeEQ; Max = 247,000 by jarrod
GBA - Avg. = 78,909; Min = 52,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 130,000 by MasterMFauli
NGC - Avg. = 11,315; Min = 4,000 by Blablurn; Max = 119,000 by Gahiggidy
NDS - Avg. = 438,698; Min = 305,000 by Dizzan; Max = 550,000 by JavyOO7
WII - Avg. = 344,293; Min = 200,000 by Sho_Nuff82; Max = 795,000 by Gahiggidy
Click to expand...
 
Arthursw1

Arthursw1

Member
Ok guys why make preditions when we can make forecast! if only someone provides with week to week balace of the sales we could start in making "forecast" instead of predictions!
 
S

Sule

Member
Arthursw1 said:
Ok guys why make preditions when we can make forecast! if only someone provides with week to week balace of the sales we could start in making "forecast" instead of predictions!
Click to expand...

But NeoGAF securities has already forecasted on page 3:

Neogaf Securities said:
May 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect Sales decrease of 5,5%

We expect May U.S. retail video game console hardware sales to be released after market close on Thursday, June 14th. We forecast total hardware sales of 1,475,000 units, up 52,1% compared to last years 970,000 units. The increase is largely due to the tripled sales of the Nintendo DS portable video game system and the introduction of the Nintendo Wii.

....

Our forecast presumes sell through of 77,000 PS3, down from last months 82,000, a decrease of 6,1%. Even though Target is discontinuing the GBA portable video game system, and thus the PS3 finally catching a break, we expect that the effects of this won't be noticeable until next months NPD-figures (if at all noticeable). The Nintendo Wii had a sell through of 339,000 units, down 21,000 from last month, or 5,8%. The prediction for the Nintendo Wii is based on lower than usual sales in Japan, most probably due to the launch of Mario Strikers Charged in Europe. We expect more Nintendo Wii hardware systems allocated to the European market and less to the Japanese and North American markets. Although some would think otherwise.

Our overall estimates assume PS2 hardware sales of 185,000, a year-over-year decrease of 47,000, or 20,3%. Despite this fact we expect PS2 sales to continue to be strong this whole year, most probably outselling the PS3 if Sony (Sony Corp, NYSE: SNE: 54.70) doesn't drop that price like it's hot or until system selling games appear for it.
Click to expand...

This was based on 86 member ''forecasts'' so it's a little off from Cheesemeisters latest official numbers. Not by much though.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
The parser said:
Number of contestants: 160

PS2 - Avg. = 187,729; Min = 17,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 285,000 by AzureNightmareXE
PSP - Avg. = 169,220; Min = 25,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 240,000 by CoryCubed
PS3 - Avg. = 78,373; Min = 50,000 by Cruceh; Max = 155,000 by underfooter
XBX - Avg. = 916; Min = 122 by jamesinclair; Max = 2,000 by Diablos54
360 - Avg. = 179,883; Min = 112,000 by DiatribeEQ; Max = 247,000 by jarrod
GBA - Avg. = 78,909; Min = 52,000 by Gahiggidy; Max = 130,000 by MasterMFauli
NGC - Avg. = 11,315; Min = 4,000 by Blablurn; Max = 119,000 by Gahiggidy
NDS - Avg. = 438,698; Min = 305,000 by Dizzan; Max = 550,000 by JavyOO7
WII - Avg. = 344,293; Min = 200,000 by Sho_Nuff82; Max = 795,000 by Gahiggidy
Click to expand...

What the hell? I clearly wrote 275,000 for my Wii prediction, it's still there on the first page.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
What the hell? I clearly wrote 275,000 for my Wii prediction, it's still there on the first page.
Click to expand...

Sho_Nuff82 said:
Wii Play - 200k
Click to expand...

In an attempt to count predictions from the MORANS who aren't using the parser format, this must've gotten picked up. Pop your software predictions into a quote block and they'll be skipped.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Cheesemeister said:
In an attempt to count predictions from the MORANS who aren't using the parser format, this must've gotten picked up. Pop your software predictions into a quote block and they'll be skipped.
Click to expand...

I'll edit out the software predictions then.

Fixed for clarity's sake.
 
B

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
[NDS] 450,000
[WII] 340,000
[PS2] 185,000
[PSP] 175,000
[360] 160,000
[PS3] 77,000
[GBA] 78,000
[GCN] 10,000
 
S

STG!

Member
[DS] 483,000
[WII] 362,000
[PS2] 186,000
[360] 175,000
[PSP] 158,000
[PS3] 98,000
[GBA] 77,000
[GC] 10,000
 
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