sonycowboy
Member
A roundup of expectations for Thursday's NPD release. Many thanks to Wedbush Morgan and TheSimExchange for their participation. More info on theSimExchange's November preview can be found at: http://www.thesimexchange.com/research.php
Code:
[b]HW Expecations[/b]
NeoGAF Pachter TSE
NDS 1,253,96 1,350,000 1,300,000
WII 1,020,003 950,000 1,060,000
360 747,459 750,000 728,000
PSP 560,081 650,000 468,000
PS2 460,985 485,000
PS3 414,293 420,000 410,000
GBA 163,363 170,000GAF Aggregate said:HW
[NDS] 1,253,964; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,800,000
[WII] 1,020,003; Expected Range = 750,000 to 1,350,000
[360] 747,459; Expected Range = 480,000 to 950,000
[PSP] 560,081; Expected Range = 252,000 to 880,000
[PS2] 460,985; Expected Range = 200,000 to 680,000
[PS3] 414,293; Expected Range = 230,000 to 600,000
[GBA] 163,363; Expected Range = 38,000 to 400,000
SW
GAF Averages:
1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 945.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 757.1K
3. 360 Assassin's Creed - 519.8K
4. 360 Halo 3 - 375.4K
5. 360 Guitar Hero III - 363.1K
6. PS2 Guitar Hero III - 360.0K
7. 360 Mass Effect - 330.8K
8. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 281.4K
9. WII Guitar Hero III - 277.0K
10. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 240.1K
11. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 232.4K
12. PS3 Assassin's Creed - 212.6K
13. WII Resident Evil: Umbrella - 201.4K
14. 360 Rock Band - 180.6K
15. NDS FFXII: Revenant Wings - 168.8K
16. PS3 Uncharted - 146.2K
17. WII Fire Emblem: Radiant - 99.0K
18. PSP MGS: Portable Ops+ - 95.7K
19. PSP Silent Hill Origins - 77.3K
20. PS3 Rock Band - 76.5K
Pachter said:November 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect +24% Sales Growth
We expect November U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, December 13. We forecast sales of $1 billion, +24% compared to last years $804 million.
Our estimate reflects $770 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS)and current generation software sales of $230 million. We estimate sell-through of 950,000 Wii, 750,000 Xbox 360 and 420,000 PS3 hardware systems. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 1,060,000 Wii, 728,000 Xbox 360 and 410,000 PS3 hardware systems.
Sales growth over the last 12 months was a robust 21%, with last month up 39% on the strength of Guitar Hero III. Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $195 million, down 34% compared to last year and consistent with our full year projection for 32% (YTD through October is 24%).
All three console manufacturers announced very strong Thanksgiving week sales. It is important to note that November includes nine days of sales post-Thanksgiving, compared to only two days of sales last year, so software and hardware sell-through should be dramatically higher year-over-year. In addition, the Wii and PS3 had combined sales of 672,000 units in November 2006, and our forecast is over twice this figure, reflecting that both consoles should be in much larger supply this November.
We think that solid software sales growth will continue in December and well into 2008, as the holiday lineup includes high priced (and sold out) games like Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, and the post-holiday line-up is also quite strong. We recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.
For November, we expect the following revenue results:
o Activision -- $250 million, +94% y-o-y.
o Atari -- $8 million, -23% y-o-y.
o Electronic Arts -- $205 million, +59% y-o-y.
o Majesco -- $6 million, +4% y-o-y.
o Midway -- $7 million, -48% y-o-y.
o Take-Two -- $32 million, +7% y-o-y.
o THQ -- $52 million, -28% y-o-y.
o Ubisoft -- $36 million, +8% y-o-y.
We expect November sales to be driven by new releases Nintendos Super Mario Galaxy (Wii), Activisions Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (360, PS3, PC, DS), Electronic Arts Rock Band (360, PS3) and Need for Speed ProStreet (PS3, 360, PS2, DS, Wii, PC), THQs WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 (PS3, PS2, 360, Wii, DS, PSP), and Ubisofts Assassins Creed (360, PS3). In addition, we expect continued strong sales of Activisions Guitar Hero III, Electronic Arts Madden NFL 08 and Nintendos Wii Play and The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass.
Our forecasts for console hardware sales are as follows (The simExchange prediction market forecasts are provided for comparison):
WMS TSE*
Wii 950,000 1,060,000
PS3 420,000 410,000
Xbox 360 750,000 728,000
PS2 485,000 n/a
PSP 650,000 468,000
DS 1,350,000 1,300,000
GBA 170,000 n/a
*The simExchange prediction market forecasts used with permission.
The rate of PS2 software sales decline increased slightly last month (-29%) compared with -24% YTD through October. The degree of PS2 software sales decline over the next several months will likely be highly correlated to next generation console sales, with year-over-year increases in next generation consoles purchases likely to accelerate declining demand for current generation software. We have modeled a decline of -34% in November, and -45% for December (-32% for the full year).
Activision
Releases during November: 11/5 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (360, PS3, PC, DS), 11/6 World Series of Poker 2008 (DS, PSP), 11/8 Cabela's Big Game Hunter (360, PS2, Wii), 11/13 Monster Truck Jam (360, PS2, Wii, DS), 11/13 Soldier of Fortune: Pay Back (360, PS3, PC), 11/20 History Channel: Battle for the Pacific (PS2, PC, Wii, 360).
We estimate that Activision generated $250 million in sales for the month, +69% from last month and +94% compared to last November. We believe sales were led by Guitar Hero III selling 1.7 million units (on top of the 1.4 million sold last month). We also expect very strong sales of new release Call of Duty 4 selling 800,000 units. We expect solid sales of Tony Hawks Proving Ground, Bee Movie, along with catalog sales of Guitar Hero I and II, Spider-Man, and Transformers.
Atari
Releases during November: 11/13 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 (PS2), 11/13 Jenga (DS), 11/20 Godzilla: Unleashed (PS2, DS).
We estimate that Atari generated $8 million in sales for the month, +385% from last month and -23% compared to last November. We believe new release Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 sold 150,000 units. We believe sales were led by catalog sales of Dungeons & Dragons, Test Drive Unlimited, and other Dragon Ball Z titles.
Electronic Arts
Releases during November: 11/2 FIFA Manager 08 (PC), 11/6 The Simpsons Game (DS), 11/13 Boogie (PS2, DS), 11/13 Crysis (PC), 11/13 Medal of Honor Heroes 2 (Wii, PSP), 11/13 Need for Speed ProStreet (PS3, 360, PS2, DS, Wii, PC), 11/13 Orcs & Elves (DS), 11/13 Sim City Societies (PC), 11/13 Smarty Pants (Wii), 11/19 Medal of Honor Airborne (PS3), 11/20 Rock Band (360, PS3).
We estimate that EA generated $205 million in sales for the month, +112% from last month and +59% compared to last November. We estimate sales were led by new release Rock Band selling 600,000 units (we note that this title and Crysis are both co-published titles). EA has stated that Rock Band has sold hundreds of thousands over the
Thanksgiving weekend which was literally every box we made." We expect that The Simpsons Game along with its other sports titles led catalog sales.
Majesco Entertainment
Releases during November: 11/13 Cooking Mama 2: Dinner with Friends (DS).
We estimate that Majesco generated $6 million in sales for the month, +162% from last month and +4% compared to last November. We expect sales were led by new release Cooking Mama 2 selling 50,000 units. We expect its other recent releases, and other Cooking Mama (Wii, DS) games led sales.
Midway Games
Releases during November: 11/5 Aqua Teen Hunger Force Zombie Ninja Pro-Am (PS2), 11/12 Blacksite: Area 51 (360, PC), 11/12 Cruis'n (Wii), 11/12 Foster's Home for Imaginary Friends (DS), 11/12 Ultimate Mortal Kombat (DS), 11/19 Unreal Tournament III (PC), 11/27 Game Party (Wii).
We estimate that Midway generated $7 million in sales for the month, +115% from last month and -48% compared to last November. We believe new release Blacksite: Area 51 led sales with 40,000 units sold. We believe Stranglehold, Mortal Kombat games and a broad range of other recent releases led catalog sales.
Take-Two Interactive
Releases during November: 11/5 Dora the Explorer (DS), 11/5 Go, Diego, Go! (DS), 11/19 College Hoops 2K8 (PS3, PS2, 360).
We estimate that Take-Two generated $32 million in sales for the month, +32% from last month and +7% compared to last November. We believe new release College Hoops 2K8 sold 40,000 units. We expect Manhunt 2 sold 75,000 units in its second month of release (compared with 67,000 units last month). We expect Bioshock, Carnival Games, and NBA 2K8 led catalog sales.
THQ
Releases during November: 11/5 Bratz: 4 Real (DS), 11/5 Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance (PC), 11/12 Cars Mater-National (GBA, Wii), 11/13 WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 (PS3, PS2, 360, Wii, DS, PSP), 11/19 Avatar: The Burning Earth (360), 11/19 SpongeBob's Atlantis SquarePantis (Wii), 11/19 Warhammer 40,000: Squad Command (PSP).
We estimate that THQ generated $52 million in sales for the month, +203% from last month and -52% compared to last November. We believe new release WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008 led sales with 500,000 units sold (up slightly from last year). We believe Conan, Juiced, along with Nickelodeon, Pixar and other WWE games led catalog sales.
Ubisoft Entertainment
Releases during November: 11/6 Blazing Angels 2: Secret Missions (PS3), 11/6 My French/Spanish Coach (DS), 11/6 My Word Coach (DS, Wii), 11/13 Assassins Creed (360, PS3), 11/13 Beowulf (360, PS3, PC), 11/13 Petz Catz/Dogz/Horsez 2 (DS, PS2, Wii), 11/13 Rayman Raving Rabbids 2 (DS, Wii), 11/14 America's Army: True Soldier (360), 11/19 CSI: Dark Motives (DS), 11/23 Hamsterz Life 2 (DS), 11/27 Cranium Kabookii (Wii).
We estimate that Ubisoft generated $36 million in sales for the month, +148% from last month and +8% compared to last November. We expect new release Assassins Creed sold 400,000 units. We expect Petz Catz/Dogz/Horsez 2 to have sold 150,000 units combined. We believe Naruto Rise of the Ninja, Rainbow Six: Vegas, GRAW 2, and Surf's Up led catalog sales along with other Tom Clancy games.
theSimExchange said:Key Points
Video games to break record sales
PC Games continue to cannibalize each other
Assassin's Creed - the woes of new intellectual property
Rock Band - Too many hands in the cookie jar
Wii - Can it handle M-rated titles
Introduction
This report is intended to aid industry professionals and the press in drawing insight and discovering trends occurring in the video game industry through the use of the simExchange video game prediction market (www.thesimexchange.com), a data aggregation system in which gamers, developers, and industry investors trade virtual video game stocks and futures to predict how video game products will sell and how they will be critically received.
Results based on NPD data have consistently shown that The simExchange prediction market can predict results not only more accurately than traditional models and surveys, but also more quickly adjust forecasts based on industry and product news.
The simExchange's Market Predictions
US Hardware in November 2007Title Predicted unit sales
Xbox 360 728,000 units
PLAYSTATION 3 410,000 units
Wii 1,060,000 units
Nintendo DS 1,300,000 units
PlayStation Portable 468,000 units
US Software in November 2007
Title Predicted unit sales
Assassin's Creed (PS3) 272,000 units
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Xbox 360) 833,000 units
Crysis (PC) 66,000 units
Manhunt 2 (Wii) 46,000 units
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) 242,000 units
Mass Effect (Xbox 360) 328,000 units
Rock Band (Xbox 360) 152,000 units
Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 1,270,000 units
Unreal Tournament 3 (PC) 78,000 units
Hardware Sales
Continuing the trend over the last 6 months, the Wii is expected top the console charts with 1,060,000 units according to the trading on the prediction market. The Xbox 360, a close second, is forecast to sell 728,000 units, while at a distant third, again, is the PS3 at 410,000 units. On the portable side, the trend persists with the Nintendo DS selling 1,300,000 units and the PSP selling 468,000 units, according to the prediction market.
Consistently a distant third, the PS3 is beginning to close the gap with its closest rival, as the Xbox 360 is only expected to out sell the PS3 1.8-to-1 in November compared in to 3-to-1 in October. The prediction market upgraded the PS3 forecast after the initial reception of the new 40GB PS3 model and recent press releases indicating a strong Thanksgiving weekend.
Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sonys favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IVboth of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008. The PS3 is expected to gain market share as the prediction market is still expecting a close race in global lifetime sales with current expectations of 58 million units and 54 million units for the Xbox 360 and the PS3, respectively.
Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sonys favor until mid 2008. A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IVboth of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008. The PS3 is expected to gain market share as the prediction market is still expecting a close race in global lifetime sales with current expectations of 58 million units and 54 million units for the Xbox 360 and the PS3, respectively.
Record Software Sales
The prediction market expects Novembers software sales to be $1.15 billion which is a 42% increase over sales last year. These sales were driven by the continued success of Guitar Hero 3, Halo 3, and Zelda: Phantom Hourglass along with newly released titles such as Assassins Creed, Call of Duty 4, Mass Effect, Need for Speed, Super Mario Galaxy, and WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2008. The prediction markets forecast on software sales will be the highest ever seen in the month of November and the first time November sales will break $1 billion.
Not to be outdone, December sales are expected by the prediction market to ring in $2.39 billion, which is a 38% increase year-over-year, another record-breaking month. Combining The NPD Groups estimates in October, retailers will net over $4.04 billion in software sales this holiday quarter, a 39% increase year-over-yeara record as well.
Although consumer spending has slowed down this quarter with many retailers reporting disappointing results, video games are largely inelastic to consumer income. The markets forecast for November and December confirms the belief that video games are a safe haven business in slower consumer spending environments.
