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Official October 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

D

Dabookerman

Member
Parl said:
Wow, your Mana and Gackt took me by surprise. Gackt = so cute.

illuminati.gif
Click to expand...

I don't really like him..

I just find that one particular shot, interesting.
 
J

Jiggy

Member
*looks at predictions*
*looks at real numbers*

I underestimated 360 by 76k, DS by 65k, PS2 by 20k, PS3 by 25k, PSP by 44k, and Wii by 109k. Right about now I wish I had mistakenly believed this was a 5-week month. Actually, let me just go ahead and multiply my predictions by 1.25 and see how far off I would have been...

360 - 3.5k off
DS - 33.25k off
PS2 - 21k off
PS3 - 1k off
PSP - 16.5k off
Wii - 6.5k off

:lol Ha, guess I'm horrible around the holiday time. I'll adjust up appropriately in November.
 
N

Nicktals

Banned
Jiggy37 said:
*looks at predictions*
*looks at real numbers*

I underestimated 360 by 76k, DS by 65k, PS2 by 20k, PS3 by 25k, PSP by 44k, and Wii by 109k. Right about now I wish I had mistakenly believed this was a 5-week month. Actually, let me just go ahead and multiply my predictions by 1.25 and see how far off I would have been...

360 - 3.5k off
DS - 33.25k off
PS2 - 21k off
PS3 - 1k off
PSP - 16.5k off
Wii - 6.5k off

:lol Ha, guess I'm horrible around the holiday time. I'll adjust up appropriately in November.
Click to expand...

:lol wow pretty impressive after the math! Here's how I did:

[360] 312,000 54000 under
[NDS] 450,000 8000 under
[PS2] 199,000 15000 over
[PS3] 122,000 1000 over
[PSP] 240,000 46000 under
[WII] 457,000 62000 under

TOTAL: 186000 off total
 
D

donny2112

Member
I've seen tons of Eye of Judgment ads. I don't recall when I started seeing them, though, so it may have just started in November. I've seen R&C ads, as well.

Analyst Comparison

As we don't have GBA numbers, yet, I'm holding off doing the normal point calculations for now. However we can compare analysts, since that doesn't include PS2 or GBA. :)

Code: 
   Oct-07                 Last 3 months           Since March 2007
1. simExchange   90.47    GAF_spec       268.56   GAF_spec       704.08
2. GAF_Agg       90.23    GAF_Agg        267.66   GAF_Agg        702.04
3. Pachter       87.64    simExchange    259.26   simExchange    696
4. GAF_spec      85.83    Pachter        256.51   Pachter        666.44

simExchange takes the crown this month, and everyone did better than last month except the GAF_spec group. :lol D'oh! :D

Analyst_Compare-1.png
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Using the following numbers...

NPD said:
Wii 519K
Nintendo DS 458K
Xbox 360 366K
PSP 286K
PlayStation 2 184K
PlayStation 3 121K
Click to expand...

1. Lobster - 134,000
2. Alcibiades - 138,000
3. CassSept - 142,000
4. Ydahs - 150,000
5. needlejuice - 155,000
6. F#A#Oo - 163,000
7. Zapperkhan - 164,000
8. Hammer24 - 165,000
9. doicare - 166,000
9. Arsenic - 166,000
11. Des0lar - 167,999
12. rage1973 - 168,000
13. argon - 169,000
14. [Nintex] - 176,000
15. frankthurk - 178,000
16. ksamedi - 182,000
17. RBH - 185,000
18. The M.O.B - 186,000
18. Nicktals - 186,000
20. soma27 - 188,000
21. RevoDS - 194,000
22. dyls - 196,000
23. Stealth - 202,000
24. laserbeam - 203,000
25. Billias - 206,000
26. AlternativeUlster - 209,000
26. Region-FreeWii - 209,000
28. JJConrad - 210,000
29. SPEA - 213,000
30. GAF Aggregate - 213,183
31. *Guaran - 221,000
32. Drensch - 222,000
33. apujanata - 226,000
34. Thunder Monkey - 229,000
35. Armada - 232,000
36. Saint10118 - 233,000
37. Bildi - 236,000
38. botticus - 237,000
39. Gahiggidy - 238,999
40. GhaleonEB - 239,000
40. Pachter - 239,000
42. Nolan. - 240,000
43. Sho_Nuff82 - 241,000
43. Heidir - 241,000
45. zallaaa - 242,000
45. Ganondorf>Link - 242,000
45. nextgeneration - 242,000
48. luoapp - 244,000
48. GameGamer - 244,000
50. Slavik81 - 245,000
50. Keio - 245,000
52. Laurent - 250,000
53. Addy_boy 85 - 252,000
53. Linkhero1 - 252,000
53. Jewbacca - 252,000
56. Vagabundo - 253,000
57. slaughterking - 254,000
57. Gekkonidae - 254,000
59. gollumsluvslave - 255,000
59. Raist - 255,000
61. jey_16 - 256,000
62. tinderbox - 259,000
63. djtiesto - 260,000
64. Jube3 - 262,000
64. Sviatoslav - 262,000
66. Visualante - 263,000
66. kefka2030 - 263,000
66. Livin_Lovin - 263,000
69. fanduck - 266,000
69. AniHawk - 266,000
71. C4Lukins - 268,000
71. Barf_the_Mog - 268,000
71. HocusPocus - 268,000
74. duk - 269,000
74. perfectchaos007 - 269,000
76. DayShallCome - 270,000
76. boontje - 270,000
78. Rekwest - 272,000
78. AdventureRacing - 272,000
78. Hyllian - 272,000
81. Milabrega - 274,000
81. Barnolde - 274,000
81. Orgen - 274,000
81. ThatHurt - 274,000
85. Olaeh - 276,000
85. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 276,000
87. mr_bishiuk - 277,000
87. DC R1D3R - 277,000
87. Aristotlekh - 277,000
90. gcfan2k5 - 278,000
90. eclipze - 278,000
92. devilscallmedad - 279,000
93. Belgorim - 280,000
94. zsidane - 281,000
95. danwarb - 282,000
96. jjgames - 283,000
97. jamesinclair - 283,584
98. Gadfly - 284,000
98. SuperBanjo - 284,000
100. Ryoma-Echizen - 285,000
101. Mariah Carey - 289,000
101. starship - 289,000
103. radjago - 292,000
104. pooteeweet - 293,000
104. Provider - 293,000
106. kkg1701 - 294,000
106. Jokeropia - 294,000
106. lochnesssnowman - 294,000
106. seattle6418 - 294,000
110. siamesedreamer - 295,000
110. Slurmer - 295,000
112. titiklabingapat - 296,000
112. Earthstrike - 296,000
114. D3MO - 298,000
114. JoshuaJSlone - 298,000
114. TwinIonEngines - 298,000
117. RattleHead_ - 299,000
117. rikitikitik - 299,000
117. John Dunbar - 299,000
120. Clever Pun - 300,000
120. Guy Legend - 300,000
122. Frankfurter - 301,000
123. TheKurgan - 302,000
124. felipeko - 303,000
125. beermonkey@tehbias - 304,000
126. Haunted One - 309,000
127. rostocker - 312,000
127. toxk_02 - 312,000
129. farnham - 314,000
129. Graphics Horse - 314,000
129. itsgreen - 314,000
129. Brakara - 314,000
133. PistolGrip - 316,000
134. Omar Ismail - 317,000
135. rhfb - 319,375
136. duderon - 321,000
137. blitz64 - 322,000
137. dammitmattt - 322,000
139. cvxfreak - 323,000
139. Psychotext - 323,000
139. Xisiqomelir - 323,000
142. quadriplegicjon - 324,000
142. DeaconKnowledge - 324,000
142. Subarushian - 324,000
142. andy_lhc - 324,000
142. Zzoram - 324,000
142. chadums90 - 324,000
142. Oblivion - 324,000
142. flipping_heck - 324,000
150. sionyboy - 327,000
151. Reneledarker - 328,000
152. Frillen - 329,000
152. Adam Blade - 329,000
154. solid2snake - 330,000
154. Insane Metal - 330,000
156. Kurosaki Ichigo - 331,000
157. theSimExchange - 334,000
158. BuzzJive - 335,000
159. Jiggy37 - 335,957
160. Parl - 338,000
161. Kaako - 345,000
161. joshschw - 345,000
163. Chumly - 346,000
164. PhoenixDark - 347,000
165. Concept17 - 349,000
165. Revengeance - 349,000
167. besiktas1 - 352,000
168. Pope Benedict XVI - 353,000
169. donny2112 - 354,000
170. Brak - 355,000
171. SIP YEK NOD - 358,000
172. Magic Mile - 360,000
173. hadareud - 364,000
173. 2600 - 364,000
175. Thraktor - 367,000
176. trilobyte - 370,000
177. Agent Icebeezy - 373,000
178. Opus Angelorum - 374,000
179. Xrenity - 379,000
180. citrus lump - 380,000
181. TwinsDad - 386,000
182. turtle553 - 406,000
183. Sarenai - 416,000
184. Amarnath - 442,000
185. FIREBABY - 444,000
186. minus_273 - 450,000
187. e-gamer - 492,000
188. sinseers - 517,000
189. twinturbo2 - 530,000
190. jercruz - 613,999
191. Truespeed - 652,000
192. Aquanox - 955,000

And without PS2...

11. theSimExchange - 150,000
37. GAF Aggregate - 211,977
56. Pachter - 233,000
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
[360] 365k
[NDS] 410k
[PS2] 175k
[PS3] 110k
[PSP] 240k
[WII] 395k

Xbox 360 366K
Nintendo DS 458K
PlayStation 2 184K
PlayStation 3 121K
PSP 286K
Wii 519K

Nailed the 360, PS2 and PS3. Undershot the DS, PSP and especially the Wii.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
I like that Gahiggidy beat Pachter and GhaleonEB by 1 unit. :)


(Me, I'm playing the role of X360; my lead from earlier in the year is dwindling.)
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
How in the heck did Pachter get so good at this? o_0

Also, Wii totally killed me I think.
 
A

apujanata

Member
30. GAF Aggregate - 213,183
33. apujanata - 226,000
40. Pachter - 239,000
157. theSimExchange - 334,000
Click to expand...

I am under GAF aggregate. :(

My worst prediction (percentage wise) is PSP (under 66K) and PS3 (under 21K).
At least, I got the ordinal position right, so I should get some bonus point.

Donny,
how many person got the ordinal position right this month ? Even without GBA figure, I think it is safe to assume that GBA will be the lowest one, below PS2.

169. donny2112 - 354,000
Click to expand...
And what happened to your prediction ? How is it possible for you to do so badly ? you used to do very well.
 
A

apujanata

Member
Since I have lots of free time now :
This is the result of the Year 2007 Top 10 by point, for October 2007 NPD :

Code: 
Year 2007 Rank : This months position - Result
Rank 1 : 114. JoshuaJSlone - 298,000
Rank 2 : 40. GhaleonEB - 239,000
Rank 3 : sonycowboy (MIA)
Rank 4 : 158. BuzzJive - 335,000
Rank 5 : 13. argon - 169,000
Rank 6 : 169. donny2112 - 354,000
Rank 7 : 120. Clever Pun - 300,000
Rank 8 : 136. duderon - 321,000
Rank 9 : 43. Heidir - 241,000
Rank 10 : 81. Orgen - 274,000

Best result from top 10 2007 is Argon, at #13, and worst result is sonycowboy, Missing in Action.
 
D

donny2112

Member
apujanata said:
And what happened to your prediction ? How is it possible for you to do so badly ? you used to do very well.
Click to expand...

Gee, thanks for pointing it out.
:p :)

Yeah, I stunk this month. I think it may have been me who dragged down the GAF_spec percentage. :lol

sonycowboy?! What happened? You could've offset my terrible performance this month to help out GAF_spec! :lol

Psychotext said:
What's GAF_spec
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=201103

It's essentially the top 15 predictors for 2007 through February. I plan on making GAF_spec in 2008 the top 10% of 2007's predictors rounded up to an even five.

apujanata said:
Donny,
how many person got the ordinal position right this month ? Even without GBA figure, I think it is safe to assume that GBA will be the lowest one, below PS2.
Click to expand...

95. :eek:
And I still wasn't one of them. I haven't gotten the order correct once this year. :lol :( :(
 
A

apujanata

Member
Hammer24 said:
Top Ten? Fuck yeah! :D

Apujanata: could you show the full 2007 standings?
Click to expand...

Donny is the one who usually do that, since he is the one who have the complete data (he and cheesemeister, actually, god bless cheesemeister's parser). I am only using donny's list for Sep 2007 to do some fact finding.

Code: 
No.	Sep-07	
1	JoshuaJSlone	1,141.81
2	GhaleonEB	1,129.72
3	sonycowboy	1,123.23
4	BuzzJive	1,122.89
5	argon	1,121.45
6	donny2112	1,118.11
7	Clever Pun	1,109.41
8	duderon	1,098.08
9	Heidir	1,069.66
10	Orgen	1,067.40
11	Kurosaki Ichigo	1,063.94
12	rage1973	1,061.34
13	Jokeropia	995.97
14	DayShallCome	969.63
15	TheKurgan	951.43
16	starship	938.83
17	Frankfurter	935.76
18	AniHawk	921.76
19	PhoenixDark	916.28
20	beermonkey@tehbias	910.61
21	apujanata	891.68
22	djtiesto	879.34
23	Parl	862.43
24	Bildi	861.5
25	Earthstrike	859.58
26	Haunted One	857.96
27	DSWii60	853.54
28	Odysseus	844.88
29	felipeko	837.09
30	JJConrad	832.96

donny2112 said:
It's essentially the top 15 predictors for 2007 through February. I plan on making GAF_spec in 2008 the top 10% of 2007's predictors rounded up to an even five.
Click to expand...

Donny, no point calculation yet ?

Well, I would suggest that year 2008, the GAF_spec are chosen like this :
- Only person in the Top30 2007, whole year list
- During 2008, for every month, if that member did not get into Top 30%, he will not get additional weight value. If he did get into Top30%, then he get additional value.
GAF_spec are calculated by considering the weight value.

Example :
Say Person A & Person B both show up in Year 2007 Top 30.
In January, since there was no history yet, both A & B Have Weight Value of 1.
Jan 2008, there are 200 predictor, so the 30% value is 60.
A prediction is ranked #24, while B is #70.
A's Weight Value became 2, while B's weight value remain the same = 1

In Feb 2008 prediction, for calculation of GAF_spec, A's prediction is multiplied by 2, while B;s prediction is multiplied by 1 (and the total calculation is divided by total weight, which is 2+1=3)

Feb 2008, there are 300 predictor, so the 30% value is 90.
A prediction is ranked #85, while B is #95.
A's Weight value became 3, while B's weight value remain the same = 1

In March 2008 prediction, for calculation of GAF_spec, A's prediction is multiplied by 3, while B's prediction is multiplied by 1 (and total calculation is divided by total weight, which is 3+1 = 4).

The purpose of the complex calculation of GAF_spec is to take into account that not everyone on the Top30 can predict consistently well. The weight value made those who perform consistently well (always inside the Top 30% cut-off point) to have more influence compared to those who are not as consistent.

95 person got the ordinal position right
Click to expand...
Oh well, I may not get a big boost from the ordinal position bonus, since so many (47%) got them right.
 
D

donny2112

Member
apujanata said:
Donny, no point calculation yet ?
Click to expand...

Sorry for the delay. I was hoping we might get GBA numbers.

Points Totals for the Month/Quarter/Year

Code: 
     October 2007                Last 3 months                2007 Overall	
1.   Lobster            138.37   rostocker           397.74   JoshuaJSlone        1,252.22
2.   CassSept           134.32   toxk_02             397.19   argon               1,240.30
3.   Ydahs              129.1    beermonkey@tehbias  393.52   GhaleonEB           1,236.77
4.   F#A#Oo             126.82   cvxfreak            389.09   BuzzJive            1,234.31
5.   Hammer24           124.66   Lobster             388.88   Clever Pun          1,220.20
6.   Zapperkhan         123.08   JoshuaJSlone        383.48   donny2112           1,216.18
7.   Alcibiades         120.5    Psychotext          383.42   duderon             1,208.55
8.   Des0lar            120.31   RevoDS              383.31   Heidir              1,186.47
9.   needlejuice        119.92   Brakara             381.4    rage1973            1,179.90
10.  Nicktals           119.3    duderon             381.12   Orgen               1,178.41
11.  argon              118.85   apujanata           380.68   Kurosaki Ichigo     1,164.09
12.  soma27             118.81   argon               380.37   sonycowboy          1,123.23
13.  rage1973           118.57   Mariah Carey        379.94   Jokeropia           1,107.11
14.  Region-FreeWii     117.97   botticus            376.33   DayShallCome        1,075.10
15.  dyls               117.58   Hammer24            373.68   TheKurgan           1,054.70
16.  botticus           117.48   Heidir              372.78   starship            1,051.24
17.  Sho_Nuff82         117.46   devilscallmedad     372.11   Frankfurter         1,037.96
18.  RevoDS             117.06   Parl                371.64   AniHawk             1,035.76
19.  Saint10118         117.04   Region-FreeWii      369.74   beermonkey@tehbias  1,020.58
20.  Gahiggidy          116.99   GhaleonEB           369.01   PhoenixDark         1,014.99
21.  Pachter            116.99   BuzzJive            368.88   apujanata           1,007.10
22.  SPEA               116.85   Frillen             368.51   djtiesto              993.7
23.  Heidir             116.81   Jokeropia           368.33   Parl                  972.43
24.  jey_16             116.52   jey_16              366.72   Bildi                 967.57
25.  Thunder Monkey     116.43   Sviatoslav          366.63   Haunted One           967.39
26.  Ganondorf>Link     116.42   blitz64             365.24   Earthstrike           960.42
27.  The M.O.B          116.35   tinderbox           364.34   felipeko              947.18
28.  nextgeneration     116.24   Jiggy37             364.27   jamesinclair          944.39
29.  zallaaa            115.58   Ydahs               364.18   JJConrad              940.05
30.  apujanata          115.41   John Dunbar         363.29   Hammer24              927.3

JoshuaJSlone still leads with only two months to go! :D
 
C

Corwood Rep

Member
I keep blowing it on the Wii. How in God's name does it sustain such impossible momentum? I mean, it's not that it keeps winning, it's that it keeps beating the hell out of everything while it's at it. The sad part is that I'll probably continue to do it.
 
D

donny2112

Member
AniHawk said:
I don't understand how I'm so off every month and still in the top 20 for the year.
Click to expand...
As Brakara said, you have more months of predictions than most. The prediction thread really started to pick up with the March/April NPDs. Also for the rankings, you only have to do better than those around you.

I'm still hoping to come back some in the rankings, but I think JoshuaJSlone's got this year wrapped up.
NO PRESSURE, RIGHT?
:D
 
L

Lobster

Banned
Err wow...holy shit..

I gotta say..I never expected to ever see 1. next to my name in predictions.

Lobster said:
[360]350K16k Short
[GBA]68K
[NDS]440K18k Short
[PS2]180K4k Short
[PS3]110K11k Short
[PSP]240K46k Short
[WII]480K39k Short
Click to expand...


NPD said:
Wii 519K
Nintendo DS 458K
Xbox 360 366K
PSP 286K
PlayStation 2 184K
PlayStation 3 121K
Click to expand...

I didn't do that good :\
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
I used to be higher in the overall 2007 chart but I missed last month's prediction, still #16 isn't bad at all.
 
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