Well, if its Obama's first job, at least he was successful in the job interview.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
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Well, if its Obama's first job, at least he was successful in the job interview.
Officerrob
Banned
This CNN group of "undecided" voters is a complete joke, these people talk for two seconds and you can tell if they are an Obama or Romney voter. They also just did a "raise your hand" poll and numerous people didn't raise their hand either time
He will just lie and lie. They've come out and said they don't give a shit about fact-checkers
I am too lazy to look back on it, but I laid out a way for Romney to win without Ohio a few weeks ago. IIRC it was basically: FL, IA, NC, VA, NH, WI, CO, NV or something to that effect. It's a big ask, considering he's down in many of those states. Personally, I think FL, WI, NC, VA are in the bag for him .. but the others are an uphill climb. I doubt his money can buy them.
Officerrob
Banned
So basically every other swing state
I don't know about VA. He hasn't led in a poll there for a bit
Black Mamba
Member
Maddow and some other dude just took Walker to task on the closed GM plant.
Walker has looked awful.
Walker has looked awful.
Officerrob
Banned
The other guy was Ed Schultz. Walker came off real bad there
polyh3dron
Banned
Scott Walker just got eviscerated and it was amazing.
CO, NV, NH would be a huge undertaking right now for him to grab I think. I could easily see the others but to be able to pull all three of those states out? I just can't see it happening.
Dude Abides
Banned
Being misleading about the GM plant in Janesville may have been a real mistake. "The plant closed before Obama was even in office" is an easy thing for the media to convey.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
There's no way he wins Wisconsin or Virginia. Despite polls in Wisconsin at the moment...come on. Look at the history.
Angry Fork
Member
When will video of this be available?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Big ask? He has to win every swing state except Ohio. That's certainly a "path" but it's from from likely
A Romney win will likely look like this:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=uBs
Shit happens. Indiana's history was no reflection on what happened in 2008.
I was just stating that it wasn't impossible. Not that it was likely.
Much like many parts of the country, Romney is 'boxed out' in Ohio. People don't like his business past, the economy is improving and there is no state race or state issue that is going to drive conservatives to the polls. Smells like defeat to me.
Looks about right. Romney could win Nevada too though. Maybe add in Wisconsin if Romney is lucky.
Officerrob
Banned
If Romney loses Florida, it's over. If he loses any of Ohio, North Carolina, or Virginia, he pretty much has to run the table on all the other real swing states.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
What a Romney win will most likely look like:
What will most likely happen:
What will most likely happen:
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Ah okay, I honestly don't kno dick about that split so I just kept it from the 2008 map.
Fake Virginia might be outvoting Real Virginia, it seems.
Colorado as well.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
So even with voter id, no one is giving him PA. lol
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I don't know why they make such mistakes. He said it already and it was debunked . . . why do it again?
They just don't give a fuck. They know they have quite a credulous following and when things get debunked their following will just scream "liberal media", "lamestream media", etc. But that is not going to help them get new voters.
speculawyer
Member
I think things are still in play. The favorite son effect may be enough for Wisconsin. Virginia did elect that whack-job governor.
But the way this campaign has been going . . . . medicare, abortion, tax returns, etc. . . . Obama's got the edge.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Why can't it be October already? I want to see this complete thrashing of Romney on stage when he's going to get called out for all of his bullshit.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Romney absolutely doesn't win PA. Absolutely not.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
I know.
It hasn't gone Red since 1988. I have no idea why it get's treaty as in play each time. http://www.270towin.com/states/Pennsylvania
PhoenixDark
Banned
Romney can win PA if it becomes a close as some of these swing states currently are, or if we experience an economic downturn. Outside of that, Obama will probably win by 4-5 points.
Byakuya769
Member
I actually know one of the "undecided." She was an independent who always voted Republican and had logic defying reasons for doing so. Was hilarious watching her on tv, she even got a question.
Arrowgigantic
Member
RON PAUL
I can't believe he brought that up again. The amount of outright straight up lies going on in the Republican party right now is just astounding. And they're not even just stretching the truth or spinning something. These are outright blatant lies with almost no basis in reality at all. In my eyes Romney needs to lose if for no other reason than we need to send a message that you can't win on a campaign like this...
well sure Romney can win PA if it magically flips for him... not sure what else you could mean by "if it becomes as close as some of those swing states currently are". There is zero evidence that it will happen, and Obama is looking to win by more than 4-5 points. Romney's SuperPACs have already ditched PA as a lost cause
smokeandmirrors
Banned
I'm ready for November. I'm taking the day off after the election, and heading to one of the bars near the federal courthouse downtown to drink and watch cable news all day (preferably Fox).
When Obama won in 2008, this city went nuts (the district where I live went >80% for Obama then), fireworks throughout the night, people dancing in the streets.. it was a fantastic night. Hopefully we'll see the same festivities again.
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
So yeah, probably extremely unlikely to happen.
Oh sweet god would that lead to a bloodbath in the streets.
On the lighter side of things C-SPAN's Facebook page had some infopic/graphs of things from various conventions.
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10151226517635579.509596.21472760578&type=1
One was this....have fun with shopping it.
eBay Huckster
Member
Okay, all kinds of late because I was out at a Turkish restaurant with friends earlier... so naturally I'll respond to heaps of posts at once!
Are there more than five million poor black Democratic voters? Yes.
Are there more than five million poor black Republican voters? ...Well, shit.
Okay, seriously, you know better than this.
If Stinkles, et al., are like me, then they don't believe all Republicans are racist, much in the same sense that they don't believe all ignorant people are stupid. (i.e., not all stupid people/Republicans are ignorant/racist and not all ignorant people/racists are stupid/Republicans.)
The Republican Party's platform is increasingly consistent, if not fully so, with the nativist and reactionary positions and rhetoric that would permeate any explicitly racial-supremacist movement. When they're associating Republicans with racism, it's because Republicans, or rather the people they consciously elect to represent them, associate themselves with racist ideology - and because the ones who disagree with it do not NEARLY do a good enough job of condemning it.
If they're saying these things are representative of the GOP, it's probably because given our representative democracy THEY ACTUALLY ARE.
Can't say I agree that Romney will see a 4-point bounce given how polling's behaved all through this cycle - perhaps 2 or 3 points - but then Nate provides for that (and even then, convention bounces are by definition temporary). It should be fun to look back on in a month, at least.
Yes, but in the case of Virginia especially there's been a marked trend toward the Democratic Party over the last 16 years, and the factors that have driven that trend haven't abated over the last four years - such that it is almost prohibitively unlikely that Romney will win under present or even near-present conditions.
Obama probably won't win either Nebraska CD as Chumly noted, and I don't agree with the assessment that he's got a <60% chance of winning at least one of NC and FL. Aside from that, swap the two CDs in your Romney win for Iowa and you've probably perfectly represented what would have to transpire.
Are there more than five million poor black Democratic voters? Yes.
Are there more than five million poor black Republican voters? ...Well, shit.
Okay, seriously, you know better than this.
If Stinkles, et al., are like me, then they don't believe all Republicans are racist, much in the same sense that they don't believe all ignorant people are stupid. (i.e., not all stupid people/Republicans are ignorant/racist and not all ignorant people/racists are stupid/Republicans.)
The Republican Party's platform is increasingly consistent, if not fully so, with the nativist and reactionary positions and rhetoric that would permeate any explicitly racial-supremacist movement. When they're associating Republicans with racism, it's because Republicans, or rather the people they consciously elect to represent them, associate themselves with racist ideology - and because the ones who disagree with it do not NEARLY do a good enough job of condemning it.
If they're saying these things are representative of the GOP, it's probably because given our representative democracy THEY ACTUALLY ARE.
Can't say I agree that Romney will see a 4-point bounce given how polling's behaved all through this cycle - perhaps 2 or 3 points - but then Nate provides for that (and even then, convention bounces are by definition temporary). It should be fun to look back on in a month, at least.
Yes, but in the case of Virginia especially there's been a marked trend toward the Democratic Party over the last 16 years, and the factors that have driven that trend haven't abated over the last four years - such that it is almost prohibitively unlikely that Romney will win under present or even near-present conditions.
Obama probably won't win either Nebraska CD as Chumly noted, and I don't agree with the assessment that he's got a <60% chance of winning at least one of NC and FL. Aside from that, swap the two CDs in your Romney win for Iowa and you've probably perfectly represented what would have to transpire.
Hmm, I wonder if their new burger The "W", is actually an homage to Bush.
Stealth Turk brag? Drink any Lion's Milk? I'm a fan of Turks & their food.
I reeeally hope Robert Plant would tell Paul Ryan to keep his name out his mouf.
Gotta Whole Lotta Love/Respect
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
Mmm Superbar...ah nostalgia.
So yeah, probably extremely unlikely to happen.
1824
but who knows whether the SCOTUS would decide to take over the election process again. Probably not, since Republicans control the house anyway
Manos: The Hans of Fate
Banned
But we got that great vague Obama Supports Abortion and Gay Marriage billboard!
I would not even want to imagine the outcome of that...not who wins, the violence that breaks out.
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