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[pxleyes]

Im diehard obama fan... but I had an interesting thought today.

Is Hillary staying in good for the party? If she stays in to the end, all of the states will continue to have huge democratic registration and hopefully that will carry Obama to victory in the GE.

No?

Hillary staying in would normally be good, like you just described. However her tactics take away from much of that, which is disappointing.

 

[Incognito]

It really surprises me that people actually think a Republican has a chance at the White House. I admit McCain is the most worthy adversary to Obama but he still has no chance. Surely I'm not the only one seeing these decidedly Democratic trends, right?

Indeed. The Democratic party could nominate Bozo the Clown and would still win in a landslide. I find it very hard to believe that after 8 years of George the Clown in the White House aided by a supine congress that voters are going to give these bozos another shot for a long time. With the gallon of milk reaching nearly $5 and gas inching towards $4 and the fact that 140,000 troops remain in Iraq with no viable solution to "winning" or extrication I just do not believe a Republican will win the presidency. Not to mention the downticket races... it's going to be a full slaughter.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Im diehard obama fan... but I had an interesting thought today.

Is Hillary staying in good for the party? If she stays in to the end, all of the states will continue to have huge democratic registration and hopefully that will carry Obama to victory in the GE.

No?

So basically, you agree with Kos. This now makes to an extreme lefty. (And I think you're right, BTW.)

Yet while the Beltway establishment frets about the alleged damage this drawn-out contest is doing to the Democratic Party, in reality, it's been an almost unalloyed good.

For one, the frenzied organizing around the country has proved a catalyst for dramatic party building in states that had been Democratically dormant. State after state has reported record turnout, and thousands of new Democrats are registering in advance of each contest. In upcoming Pennsylvania, Democrats have gained a net 200,000 registered voters over Republicans this year; that number is 105,000 in North Carolina.

The party can now take advantage of the infrastructure both campaigns leave behind. The unprecedented level of participation and organization not only reinforces Blue states, it improves Democratic odds in traditional swing states. In fact, the tide threatens to make GOP stalwarts like Texas up for grabs this fall.

 

[bob_arctor]

It really surprises me that people actually think a Republican has a chance at the White House. I admit McCain is the most worthy adversary to Obama but he still has no chance. Surely I'm not the only one seeing these decidedly Democratic trends, right?

All signs point to a landslide victory for Obama, yes. Being a conspiracy buff, I'm wary of the ubiquitous "they" gumming up the works. Aside from that, "first black President" just floors me to the point of disbelief.

 

[mckmas8808]

My problem is with the whole slave connotation thing, which is ignorant.

But he's right in some cases. There's nothing that's keeping black people to still vote for the clintons anymore.

 

[Amir0x]

that Gallup poll is neat huh

 

[APF]

All signs point to a landslide victory for Obama, yes. Being a conspiracy buff, I'm wary of the ubiquitous "they" gumming up the works. Aside from that, "first black President" just floors me to the point of disbelief.

Hey I thought Kerry was going to landslide in the last election; at this point though, it looks like a close race regardless of who gets the nom.

 

[Father_Brain]

It really surprises me that people actually think a Republican has a chance at the White House. I admit McCain is the most worthy adversary to Obama but he still has no chance. Surely I'm not the only one seeing these decidedly Democratic trends, right?

Well, McCain is polling neck-and-neck with both Obama and Clinton in many polls, and his favorable ratings are alarmingly high. I don't think he'll actually win in November, but it does seem like the prolonged Democratic primary is delaying any coordinated effort to smash the Straight Talkin' Maverick myth that's keeping his numbers up.

 

[maximum360]

Well, McCain is polling neck-and-neck with both Obama and Clinton in many polls, and his favorable ratings are alarmingly high. I don't think he'll actually win in November, but it does seem like the prolonged Democratic primary is delaying any coordinated effort to smash the Straight Talkin' Maverick myth that's keeping his numbers up.

I think the numbers for McCain will not stay static. The only positives to come out McCain's current poll numbers is to impress upon the superdelegates and others the need to quickly choose a number one.

 

[syllogism]

GOP is and should be more worried about their chances at keeping dem seat gains in single digits.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/23/135112/531/381/482712

 

[Kusagari]

It really surprises me that people actually think a Republican has a chance at the White House. I admit McCain is the most worthy adversary to Obama but he still has no chance. Surely I'm not the only one seeing these decidedly Democratic trends, right?

People said the same thing back in 2004. I have a sinking feeling McCain will win and then we'll get 4 more years of bitching about Republicans even though the people who hate Bush voted for McCain anyway.

 

[Keylime]

People said the same thing back in 2004. I have a sinking feeling McCain will win and then we'll get 4 more years of bitching about Republicans even though the people who hate Bush voted for McCain anyway.

He's such a Maverick, though!

 

[Mandark]

Maybe, but:



AP

Well, now I'm fairly sure the Basra incident was an attempt by Maliki and his allies to weaken Sadr before the local elections. They didn't have the horses for that so now they'll try to exclude his candidates from the ballot.

On what grounds? That the political party is affiliated with a militia! Who's behind this legislation? SIIC and the Kurdish alliance, the political wings of the Badr Brigade and peshmerga respectively. Funny if it weren't so sad.

I wonder if this applies to the Sunni awakening councils and concerned citizens groups. Those are all heavily armed non-governmental forces and the current Iraqi government has been doing what it can to keep them from getting official power.

If McCain wants to push the idea of several more years in Iraq, people should demand that he gives an explicit strategic goal. A democracy? A pro-American regime? An acceptable level of violence through any power-sharing agreement possible? A Leviathan to ensure long-term stability?

This Kissinger stuff, staying for American credibility, isn't going to cut it.

 

[AndersTheSwede]

People said the same thing back in 2004. I have a sinking feeling McCain will win and then we'll get 4 more years of bitching about Republicans even though the people who hate Bush voted for McCain anyway.

The difference being that in 04 the shit hadn't really hit the fan yet. There were very disturbing signs from Iraq, but most people (that voted for Bush) seemed to be in a "stay the course in wartime" frame of mind.

That turned out a complete disaster.

Now it's all out there for people to see, and scandal after scandal has alienated the swing voters, the one's who are crucial to deciding every single election. The neo-cons will always come out for a Republican, but without swing vote support the Republicans and finished in 08.

And who has the most support among independents? That would be Obama.

Love this poll from AMG:

Mar Mar Apr
7-8 26-27 5-6
Clinton 52% 51% 45%
Obama 41% 39% 45%

Hopefully this shit can be over with in PA.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Hopefully this shit can be over with in PA.

Nope.

 

[ZealousD]

Hopefully this shit can be over with in PA.

The media has already changed the goal posts to North Carolina and Indiana.

After that, it'll be whatever the party ends up doing to make the superdelegates decide before the convention.

Then the convention.

 

[AndersTheSwede]

The media has already changed the goal posts to North Carolina and Indiana.

After that, it'll be whatever the party ends up doing to make the superdelegates decide before the convention.

Then the convention.

Eh, no it hasn't. If Obama wins by 1 vote in the popular election in PA it's game over for Hillary. I haven't seen a single media outlet state that she can lose PA and still continue.

 

[Insertia]

I notice the Clinton campaign is starting to realize PA won't be a landslide for her. This was her state to dominate weeks ago now they aren't expecting her to win by double digit points.

"Well, Obama is outspending us 3-1"

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/2-philly-counties-flip-to-democratic/

History is being made in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

The four suburban counties have long been Republican strongholds, with more Republican voters than Democratic ones. The last time there were more Democrats than Republicans seems lost in the mists of time.

But a new day is here. Voter enrollment in both Montgomery and Bucks Counties has flipped from Republican to Democratic.

Welcome home!

 

[kkaabboomm]

ARG's polling record is spotty in this current election cycle... it does just re-enforce the trend lines in PA, though.

I don't think PA will go Obama, but Clinton's group is great at managing expectations and it is starting to show that a win of 7ish% or more for her there will be a good win, despite the expectations a week or two ago of 15+%

 

[Keylime]

Eh, no it hasn't. If Obama wins by 1 vote in the popular election in PA it's game over for Hillary. I haven't seen a single media outlet state that she can lose PA and still continue.

The issue isn't that she has to win PA.

The issue is that she has to win PA BY FUCKING PLANETS WORTH OF PERCENTAGE POINTS!

If she wins by 5, 10 or even 15%...she's lost. No one talks about this, however, as that wouldn't be good for ratings!

 

[Shirokun]

Oh Wolf... *face in palm*

Blitzer: Is Clinton ahead in the only count that matters?

WASHINGTON (CNN) – In recent days, Hillary Clinton supporters have been pushing this notion that the Democratic presidential candidate who has won the states with the most Electoral College votes should get the party’s super delegates and the party’s eventual nomination. We’ve heard it from Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Democratic Governor Ed Rendell — among many others.

They make this argument because Barack Obama remains the leader so far in pledged delegates, the popular vote and the most states won.

Clinton’s supporters note that Obama may have won more states — 27 to 14, excluding both Michigan and Florida whose delegates so far are not being counted because those states moved up their primaries against Democratic party rules. But they argue that her 14 states have a total of 219 Electoral College votes and his 27 states have 202 — and insist that makes her more likely to win the general election in November.

Among the big states she has won are New York and California.

Obama supporters argue that any Democrat likely will capture those states if recent presidential elections are a model. That may be true but John McCain and his supporters are arguing that he might actually have a chance in California given his supposed “maverick” reputation and the strong support of the state’s popular Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Clinton supporters also argue that she has a better chance of beating McCain in swing states like Florida and Ohio — which they say Democrats would need to win in November. They say it’s all about the Electoral College — not the popular vote — as was made clear in 2000, when Al Gore won hundreds of thousands of more votes than winner George Bush.

It’s a controversial point that the Clinton camp makes.

 

[belvedere]

Oh Wolf... *face in palm*

Remember when Fox News was the spin champion?

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Barack Obama in Montana

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSnh_ZU0dQg

Video of campaign stops in Montana.

 

[kkaabboomm]

more on montana -

Campbell had to retract her official endorsement, but Dahlman went ahead and endorsed.

-1, +1 officially.

http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=8130332&nav=menu227_7

 

[GhaleonEB]

The issue isn't that she has to win PA.

The issue is that she has to win PA BY FUCKING PLANETS WORTH OF PERCENTAGE POINTS!

If she wins by 5, 10 or even 15%...she's lost. No one talks about this, however, as that wouldn't be good for ratings!

Yup. If she doesn't win by 20% or more, she needs even bigger margins in every other state to pull even. Anything less and that hill gets a little steeper. But only a few outlets - like MSNBC's political blog - make that point.

Oh Wolf... *face in palm*

Blitzer: Is Clinton ahead in the only count that matters?

Has Wolf always been this dim, or just recently?

 

[Shirokun]

Remember when Fox News was the spin champion?

It's pretty sad how far they've fallen. Do these pundits actually get paid more when they fan the flames to keep conflict and controversy alive, or are they just really bored?

 

[maynerd]

Let's also not forget Obama is up by +20% in NC which just makes it that much more difficult for her.

 

[Shirokun]

Has Wolf always been this dim, or just recently?

Wolf = Clinton whore. That said, I've never really liked him. Always thought he did a pretty lousy job. This just gives me a reason to dislike him is all.

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

more on montana -

Campbell had to retract her official endorsement, but Dahlman went ahead and endorsed.

-1, +1 officially.

http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=8130332&nav=menu227_7

Did she get that threatening call from Bill Clinton?!

 

[belvedere]

It's pretty sad how far they've fallen. Do these pundits actually get paid more when they fan the flames to keep conflict and controversy alive, or are they just really bored?

It's almost as if they're scared shitless to say anything even remotely negative about Clinton, despite how factual or probable it is.

Wolf and Dobbs specifically, don't consider the mathematical challenge for her as realistic. It's simply absurd to count her out when looking at her chances to come back and win.

Also, I don't know how many times I've heard Wolf Blitzer or Anderson Cooper give the same disclaimer, "we're showing this exclusive Barack Obama footage and intend to do something similar for Hillary Clinton, if she accepts our invitation" etc.

 

[kkaabboomm]

Did she get that threatening call from Bill Clinton?!

no, dem party rules say she cannot, as a co-party chair or whatever rank she holds, actively endorse in a 'contested primary'. so she has retracted the endorsement. that doesnt mean she won't use her super delegate vote for Obama, but her public endorsement has been retracted.

 

[Fragamemnon]

So yeah kos is saying Shit Talk Express only raised $15 million in March, after being the "confirmed" nominee. Meanwhile apparently Obama raised $40 million.

I can't believe Dems are worried about McCain. seriously, the only thing that is more of a non-starter than his candidacy is a '92 ford taurus three days after being driven off the used car lot.

 

[AndersTheSwede]

The issue isn't that she has to win PA.

The issue is that she has to win PA BY FUCKING PLANETS WORTH OF PERCENTAGE POINTS!

If she wins by 5, 10 or even 15%...she's lost. No one talks about this, however, as that wouldn't be good for ratings!

Well, really Hillary has ALREADY lost (as the supers will never overturn the will of the pledged if they want to get reelected.)

This isn't about her having a chance, it's what needs to happen to push her completely out of the race. As long as she thinks she can convince the supers she will stay, but a loss in PA rules it out completely, and she would be forced out.

A close win for her though, well that could go either way in terms of forcing her out. Don't really know. Clinton is tenacious.

 

[Instigator]

Jesse Ventura was just on on CNN, but is he sick or does he have a condition or something? He had some weird shaking/trembling.

 

[lopaz]

Well, really Hillary has ALREADY lost (as the supers will never overturn the will of the pledged if they want to get reelected.)

This isn't about her having a chance, it's what needs to happen to push her completely out of the race. As long as she thinks she can convince the supers she will stay, but a loss in PA rules it out completely, and she would be forced out.

A close win for her though, well that could go either way in terms of forcing her out. Don't really know. Clinton is tenacious.

hillary probably wants to damage obama enough that he'll lose so she can run next time

 

[AndersTheSwede]

hillary probably wants to damage obama enough that he'll lose so she can run next time

I want to believe that Hillary isn't that dastardly. That she is in the race because she honestly thinks she has a chance.

And I believe that to be the case. She's said negative stuff, but she hasn't gone full on scorched earth with him.

 

[bishoptl]

Jesse Ventura was just on on CNN, but is he sick or does he have a condition or something? He had some weird shaking/trembling.

He was a big-time juicer during his WWF days (allegedly). The long-term health risks associated with that are probably coming to the forefront. :|

 

[GhaleonEB]

So yeah kos is saying Shit Talk Express only raised $15 million in March, after being the "confirmed" nominee. Meanwhile apparently Obama raised $40 million.

And this is exactly why McCain wants to use public financing, and tie Obama to it as well. Obama layered caveats onto his tentative agreement to use PF, but I'm sure he's trying to figure out a way to get out of that and still save face. It's going to be interesting to see how he proceeds. Agreeing to PF will take away one of Obama's major advantages.

 

[Shirokun]

I want to believe that Hillary isn't that dastardly. That she is in the race because she honestly thinks she has a chance.

And I believe that to be the case. She's said negative stuff, but she hasn't gone full on scorched earth with him.

I think even she's starting to realize that she may have to cut her losses at some point and bow out. If she doesn't get the nomination(she won't) and gives the political equivalent of a mortal wound to Obama in the process - losing the Dems the election - she'll ruin any future chance she has at the Presidency. Thats the way I'm seeing it anyway.

 

[lopaz]

I want to believe that Hillary isn't that dastardly. That she is in the race because she honestly thinks she has a chance.

And I believe that to be the case. She's said negative stuff, but she hasn't gone full on scorched earth with him.

I can't remember the exact story, but didn't she or one of her advisors basically imply pretty clearly that Mccain would make a better President?

 

[DrForester]

I want to believe that Hillary isn't that dastardly. That she is in the race because she honestly thinks she has a chance.

And I believe that to be the case. She's said negative stuff, but she hasn't gone full on scorched earth with him.

I'm more inclined to believe that she's sabotaging Obama so McCain wins and she can run in 2012 with a "should have picked me" campaign. While I would like to think she is not that dastardly, I also believe Hillary is a very very smart woman, and can't possibly be stupid enough to think she has a chance at the nomination this time.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Summary of recent PA polls.

                 Obama  Clinton 
ARG                45     45    (4/5-6) 
Insider Advantage  43     45    (4/2) 
Muhlenberg         41     51    (3/27-4/2) 
PPP                45     43    (3/31-4/1) 
Rasmussen          42     47    (3/31) 
SurveyUSA          41     53    (3/29-31) 
Quinnipiac         41     50    (3/24-31) 
Strategic Vision   41     49    (3/28-30)

 

[teiresias]

And this is exactly why McCain wants to use public financing, and tie Obama to it as well. Obama layered caveats onto his tentative agreement to use PF, but I'm sure he's trying to figure out a way to get out of that and still save face. It's going to be interesting to see how he proceeds. Agreeing to PF will take away one of Obama's major advantages.

All Obama has to do is the first time it's brought up in a debate is ask how much more public can his financing be when it's already being funded by grass-roots, main street America via small donations?

 

[AndersTheSwede]

All Obama has to do is the first time it's brought up in a debate is ask how much more public can his financing be when it's already being funded by grass-roots, main street America via small donations?

Yeah, given the large (!) numbers of small donations he has a plausible out without significantly damaging his rep.

And then he can bury McCain under a mountain of cash.

Ironically, I used to hate the influence of money on American politics, but in this case it's doing some damn good.

 

[Tamanon]

David Gregory is the world's largest dork.

 

[Father_Brain]

The McCain Girls are tearing up the YouTube charts again.

 

[siamesedreamer]

...I just do not believe a Republican will win the presidency. Not to mention the downticket races... it's going to be a full slaughter.

Totally agree. However, I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone would want one party controlling government with such huge margins other than blind partisianship.

If McCain wants to push the idea of several more years in Iraq, people should demand that he gives an explicit strategic goal. A democracy? A pro-American regime? An acceptable level of violence through any power-sharing agreement possible? A Leviathan to ensure long-term stability?

Agreed.

This Kissinger stuff, staying for American credibility, isn't going to cut it.

Disagree. You can't be talking about ending the genocide in Darfur, repairing relations abroad, boycotting the opening ceremony in Beijing, etc, etc. while simultaneously planning withdrawal from Iraq that could well lead to chaos/genocide.

 

[maynerd]

David Gregory is the world's largest dork.

He's a pretty funny guy. He's great on conan when he's on there.

 

[Father_Brain]

Totally agree. However, I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone would want one party controlling government with such huge margins other than blind partisianship.

My partisanship is far from blind, thank you very much.