Fools idol
Banned
Sorry for the double post but... LMFAO
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
crazepharmacist
Member
SPX gonna be down 20% for the year pretty soon. Hard to resist buying at these levels.
StateofMajora
Banned
Yep... Intel finally went below 43 today :/
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Glad I'm out of almost all my positions prior to this recent meltdown (TSLA, some covid investments, couple of tech giants, ETF all sold up with profit) with one long term exception in mining that will pay off mid next year some 20-30 fold hopefully.
Basically doubled my money overall and ready for a fresh start on investments. Just going to sit and wait until I'm more confident of the wind change back up in the future, whenever that is. Got a bunch of house renos going on so happy to ride months/this year out if necessary before reinvesting.
Basically doubled my money overall and ready for a fresh start on investments. Just going to sit and wait until I'm more confident of the wind change back up in the future, whenever that is. Got a bunch of house renos going on so happy to ride months/this year out if necessary before reinvesting.
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Fools idol
Banned
Tether is cracking now too. Once these supposed 'rocks' of crypto stability go to zero the real panic selling will begin, I know a lot of funds had exposure to BTC and Tether.
Stocks with heavy crypto exposure and investments will be wiped out (MSTR, SQ, PYPL etc) and those with lighter exposure like Tesla with it's $2B investment are going to hurt too.
Stocks with heavy crypto exposure and investments will be wiped out (MSTR, SQ, PYPL etc) and those with lighter exposure like Tesla with it's $2B investment are going to hurt too.
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chromhound
Member
Fools idol
Banned
$QQQ found high volume support today at the bottom of it's channel downtrend.
I decided to buy a shitload of calls when I saw the volume turn green, and sure enough, ended up big on the mid day. Didn't quite lock in profits at the top but closed it all out and rolled that profit into common stock on my favourite longs. This is positive divergence, we are certainly not out of the woods by any means, but could see a nice bear market rally back towards the red line over the coming weeks. See how this plays out.
My advice for those of you out there who may be hurting bad but still holding, at this point, waiting for the Q's to retest that upper resistance red line is a good way to reduce your position sizes.. It will likely come, bear market rallies can be very strong. I will be reducing some of mine and redeploying when the opp comes.
Ellery
Member
$QQQ found high volume support today at the bottom of it's channel downtrend.
I decided to buy a shitload of calls when I saw the volume turn green, and sure enough, ended up big on the mid day. Didn't quite lock in profits at the top but closed it all out and rolled that profit into common stock on my favourite longs. This is positive divergence, we are certainly not out of the woods by any means, but could see a nice bear market rally back towards the red line over the coming weeks. See how this plays out.
My advice for those of you out there who may be hurting bad but still holding, at this point, waiting for the Q's to retest that upper resistance red line is a good way to reduce your position sizes.. It will likely come, bear market rallies can be very strong. I will be reducing some of mine and redeploying when the opp comes.
That was definitely a good play. Didn't know you were also into technical analysis ! Any plays laid up if the resistance or support breaks?
What broker platform are you using for your trades?
Fools idol
Banned
I use interactive brokers and tradingview for charts
Zippitydodaday
Member
StateofMajora
Banned
HoodWinked
Member
Everyday is pain
chromhound
Member
Sorry for the double post but... LMFAO
‘My tattoo will be a constant reminder that venture investing requires humility,’ says Michael Novogratz, with a ‘Luna’ tattoo, after the crypto’s collapse
Once a backer of cryptocurrency Luna, Mike Novogratz got a wolf-themed tattoo to demonstrate his support.
www.marketwatch.com
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GHG
Member
In 2022 this is normal.
Fools idol
Banned
Target having it's worst crash since 1987. Rofl
StateofMajora
Banned
Damn. Target has been beaten to hell since april.
StateofMajora
Banned
What are everyone's thoughts on a pre crash rally this summer? It was just a slow decline then a crash in 08 but could anything be different this time?
I am prepared to hold my long positions in the event it doesn't rally but I'm sure no one wants to do that lol. Meantime I am really going to have to hustle at work...
I am prepared to hold my long positions in the event it doesn't rally but I'm sure no one wants to do that lol. Meantime I am really going to have to hustle at work...
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Fools idol
Banned
really think the crash per se is over for high growth stuff like $NET and $SHOP which have already crashed 80% from highs. Dow and Spy darlings are another story.
StateofMajora
Banned
If we are in for another 2008 later this year that would send those further down too even though they're already brutalized.
I'm definitely convinced shit will hit the fan again... Just don't know if it's down from here or we see a "melt up" before that.
Fools idol
Banned
tomorrow will be a deep green day as it's options emptying time. Expect a good rally.
Fools idol
Banned
High growth Tech stocks like NET, SHOP, TWLO, once again bounced off the lows. I think the 'crash' is over for them, or rather the worst is in the rear view mirror. BABA my horse also seems to have bottomed out.
Good time to be cautiously dollar cost averaging onto these amazing names. If you have 5-10 years of time to wait, you will at the very least double or triple your money from here regardless of what is going on in the current time. Of course, my opinion.
Good time to be cautiously dollar cost averaging onto these amazing names. If you have 5-10 years of time to wait, you will at the very least double or triple your money from here regardless of what is going on in the current time. Of course, my opinion.
chromhound
Member
How i feel
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Lately, I don’t even look at my portfolio. I am building a cash position to buy land.
What hurts me the most is that I joined public a company while the stock price was high and it has lost almost 40% of its value ever since. For a few months, my total compensation was crazy high even for Silicon Valley standards. Now I feel almost demotivated when I consider my total comp.
It also feels like cash cannot buy jack shit. A DoorDash Chipotle order for two is more than $60 here (Bay Area). Filling up the gas tank of my Miata is $70. Life seems crazy expensive and it will just get more expensive.
What hurts me the most is that I joined public a company while the stock price was high and it has lost almost 40% of its value ever since. For a few months, my total compensation was crazy high even for Silicon Valley standards. Now I feel almost demotivated when I consider my total comp.
It also feels like cash cannot buy jack shit. A DoorDash Chipotle order for two is more than $60 here (Bay Area). Filling up the gas tank of my Miata is $70. Life seems crazy expensive and it will just get more expensive.
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Ellery
Member
I live in an area where the baseline price of things are considerably cheaper than the Bay Area, but relatively speaking I have noticed this same price increase throughout the board. Last few months have been expensive for me and I was pretty conservative with how I spend my money. As far as filling up my tank goes I live in europe so gas prices are like 8$-9$ per gallon now.
And most of all I am terrified of where this price increase/inflation will go to. I basically have first hand experience with what is about to come since my job is actually updating prices for the things we sell from various kinds of suppliers and let me tell you that I am not kidding, but basically all of them have already increased their prices by 40-50% and most of them are increasing them on a monthly basis (10-20% price increase multiple times).
(This is however the more extreme end since those things we sell are heavily affected by the ukraine war and china so my anecdotal experience is not necessarily representative for what the average consumer spends most of their money on)
Interesting to see Fools idol be somewhat positive for the stocks he mentioned. I am too new to this game to knew about market cycles and how they feel like during a downturn and when it is time to take some money into your hands.
Fools idol
Banned
I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but it wont be long before a loaf of bread costs $5 of more. Most meat will become unaffordable for most.
The climate is fucked, these adverse weather conditions on top of supply chain crunches and brutal inflation are killing farmers and producers. There is going to be severe global food shortages very soon.
Fuck the land, buy a freezer and start stocking up on long life food stuffs. I wish I wasnt deadly serious but were in for a rough summer of civil unrest and food crisis.
The climate is fucked, these adverse weather conditions on top of supply chain crunches and brutal inflation are killing farmers and producers. There is going to be severe global food shortages very soon.
Fuck the land, buy a freezer and start stocking up on long life food stuffs. I wish I wasnt deadly serious but were in for a rough summer of civil unrest and food crisis.
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Ellery
Member
This is what I fear as well, but these days I am not sure whether I am trapped in some internet algorithm bubble that constantly bombards me with fear scenarios or if the outlook actually is that dire.
I try to be reasonable and look at both side (basically bearish and bullish even though that is generalizing it too much), but the amount of money the central banks printed, the extreme greed and speculation mania in the stock market, economy, supply chain issues, and of course all of the (geo)political events that are currently taking place have me concerned more than I'd like to be.
In 2008 I basically just finished school and tried to enter the workforce. I didn't pay attention to investing and the stock market much and of course I absolutely had no idea about the dotcom bubble. So I lack the experience the judge the situation we are in and if it always feels like that. And then there is also the internet which seems to hyperamplify everything.
In my area (EU) the price for dairy products and meat (incl. vegan) already nearly doubled. Mid-term if the high inflation stays, then wages will have to increase considerably to reach the previous spending power of consumers.
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Venom Snake
Member
Fools idol
Banned
My mentor is a futures and commodities trader with 45 years experience so I get a lot of my information directly from her when things get dicey like this not only for her market experience but also her connections to market makers and HFT firms. As much as we all like to think we are good at investing, when these fuckers want to force a market move they have infinite money to make it happen.
TLDR your instincts are tingly for a reason on this one. I still stand by my thesis that China mega caps like Alibaba and a select few other US tech stocks have seen the worst of the crash, the markets are not the real economy.
The fed has created a giant disconnect either by design or by recklessness, either way, the old girl is going to sink, it's a mathematical certainty. Poor old retail will be out in the streets again like 2008/9 while the elite ranks of the finance world look down from their ivory towers.
I am starting to wonder indeed if this Klaus Schwab conspiracy theory really does have legs.... The population simply can not keep doubling every 50 years or so because our planet is dying, resources are getting slimmer, and the climate is past the point of no return. I wouldn't put it past the greedy fuckers who got us into this mess suddenly decide they can do without us and puppet-master this great reset upon us after all.
IF you are interested, this is fantastic summary video
Also for the record, Facebook appears to have bottomed out at its long term primary trend support.
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Venom Snake
Member
I don't know how many people are aware of the huge role Russia's war with Ukraine plays here. Ukraine itself is one of the three largest exporters of grain in the world, also providing over 40% of the world's sunflower oil. These are huge amounts. Currently, the cultivated area size has decreased drastically, there are artillery shells or mines in the fields and farms lack people and resources to continue the work.
To make matters worse, Russia is not far behind Ukraine in terms of food export statistics. In response to sanctions, they accumulate reserves and will not send anything, even components for the production of fertilizers (which they have exported in huge quantities so far, almost 20% of the world's resources of potassium chloride). This will create a domino effect that will also affect the yields of plants used for livestock feed production.
Overall, we will see a temporary, though still very serious, supply shortage here. As the crops depend on seasons, there is little time to find alternatives.
Reducing supplies when demand is naturally high will result in a sharp increase in prices.
Here's what one of the largest grocery chains in Germany announces:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ices-jump-50-cent-Germany-Australia-next.html
And all this together with high inflation, economic recession and rising unemployment to the mix. We have a long survival lesson ahead of us...
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Incredible.
Paypal down to $78
Snap snapped in half down to $12
Pinterest down to $17
Thank god I didn't try to luck out a bounce buying Paypal or Pin. Not that I care about the financials, but just going on dead cat bounce mentality and get out.
If Paypal drops to $50 or PIN to $10, I might get in.
Paypal down to $78
Snap snapped in half down to $12
Pinterest down to $17
Thank god I didn't try to luck out a bounce buying Paypal or Pin. Not that I care about the financials, but just going on dead cat bounce mentality and get out.
If Paypal drops to $50 or PIN to $10, I might get in.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Luckily I dont drive much during covid although we are back to work hybrid style.
Filling up my tank is about 60L x $2.20 (premium 91 gas) = $130 CDN.
Fools idol
Banned
I don't know how many people are aware of the huge role Russia's war with Ukraine plays here. Ukraine itself is one of the three largest exporters of grain in the world, also providing over 40% of the world's sunflower oil. These are huge amounts. Currently, the cultivated area size has decreased drastically, there are artillery shells or mines in the fields and farms lack people and resources to continue the work.
To make matters worse, Russia is not far behind Ukraine in terms of food export statistics. In response to sanctions, they accumulate reserves and will not send anything, even components for the production of fertilizers (which they have exported in huge quantities so far, almost 20% of the world's resources of potassium chloride). This will create a domino effect that will also affect the yields of plants used for livestock feed production.
Overall, we will see a temporary, though still very serious, supply shortage here. As the crops depend on seasons, there is little time to find alternatives.
Reducing supplies when demand is naturally high will result in a sharp increase in prices.
Here's what one of the largest grocery chains in Germany announces:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ices-jump-50-cent-Germany-Australia-next.html
And all this together with high inflation, economic recession and rising unemployment to the mix. We have a long survival lesson ahead of us...
Exactly - this stuff is the roots of my post above.
There is another issue that even less people understand - China now holds many of the cards to the solutions you mention abouve.
For one example, Tesla relies deeply on China for it's production and global shipment of it's cars and many other companies in the vehicle industry.
The single most important region for the global economy right now is Taiwan, it's semi conductor production. China is very capable of invasion to secure full control of the world's supply of wafers - no chips = no economy. Everything stops.
Scary times indeed.
Ellery
Member
What I am wondering is why China is acting so weird lately. Especially regarding their zero covid policy. Xi being much like Mao (both were red princes I think?). It doesn't look good domestically for china right now. The housing market there is pretty bad.
Maybe much of it is propaganda/manipulation to mislead the west. Extremely hard to get any insight of china. They are not transparent at all.
As always I am very thankful for you sharing your thoughts (and other people as well). I appreciate it when people are honest about their personal expectations or speculation about the future. I know the future is hard to predict, but it is great to at least discuss the mechanics at play and what they might lead to.
The china -> taiwan situation is indeed scary and it looks like if china actually advances with their plans it is going to escalate. The US doesn't seem like they would back down.
Venom Snake
Member
The zero Covid policy is incomprehensible to me. Maybe there is some logic behind it that i don't know about, because as you said, they lack transparency on their part. But on the other hand, it is not difficult for me to imagine that they are simply making mistakes or trying to reestablish themselves in a changing world order. With disastrous results for the rest of the us.
However, this comes at a price.
https://www.ft.com/content/17aaf112-be52-4695-9f2d-849a50ea3c2d
The zero-Covid policy is causing huge losses to China's agriculture and may soon render the country insufficient, forcing it to compete with other countries at the import level. As more and more countries adopt food export restrictions, all this will only inflate prices even further.
To make matters worse, it all happens on top of previous food supply issues, caused by last year's record-braking rains, which destroyed about 30 million acres of crops (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ge-threatens-china-s-crop-yield-food-security).
And this, as we all know, means more shifts in demand. Shifts to which supply chains respond very slowly. If you start to stretch and twist something that is rigid by nature, it will break. If China is playing a game here, it's a very dangerous game.
I realize that all this news is exhausting and difficult to digest, but we must consider all possible scenarios, especially the worst ones.
But if we've gotten so far, we'll make it.
Fools idol
Banned
You have to think about this pragmatically - it's political chess games.
If we hypothesise that they want to cause economic distress to their perceived competitors / enemies eg the USA, they can either impose direct actions like sanctions or military... or they can be subtle about it. They can't explicity say 'well we are closing down the factories until the USA yields to our demands' as it would be seen as an aggressive act of economic warfare. However, if they scapegoat Covid, we can't be sure for certain. The large cap US companies like Apple and Tesla rely very heavily on supply chains and production controlled by the Chinese, so if China imposes some lockdown that halts their factories and just uses Covid 0 as an excuse, the USA is in a sticky situation because they cant directly come out and say China is using it as an act of economic warfare.
I suspect later this year the Chinese market will have a strong rally due to stimulus, buybacks and further structural propping directly from the CCP. They will most likely yield to some regulatory concerns the USA has around auditing so their big stocks like JD and Alibaba can remain listed on US exchanges.
I understand the hangups a lot of investors have when it comes to China. It's extremely hard to navigate, you can't be too sure on the data and worst of all, the communist party have a bad reputation for abusing human beings. No one can hide that.
However, if one looks at this from the perspective that it was barely 50 years since it was illegal for black people to sit where they like on busses in the USA... you must notice that in the past 5-10 years alone China policy has changed dramatically. The once shameful 'sweat shops' are now almost entirely manned by advanced robots. No doubt in the poorer areas, those sweat shops still exist, but the country is improving rapidly. Healthcare quality and standard of living has gone up dramatically in the past 10 years for the average Chinese person as well. They are not perfect at all, but they are moving in the right direction.
The USA still has problems with guns and mass shootings on a quarterly basis, it strikes me as a little ironic when people like Jeffrey Gundlach label China as un-investible while he's flowing money into the NRA back home. Those same people say 'oh well China doesn't allow families to have more children' well.. the USA just made abortion illegal in 2022. Go fish.
If we hypothesise that they want to cause economic distress to their perceived competitors / enemies eg the USA, they can either impose direct actions like sanctions or military... or they can be subtle about it. They can't explicity say 'well we are closing down the factories until the USA yields to our demands' as it would be seen as an aggressive act of economic warfare. However, if they scapegoat Covid, we can't be sure for certain. The large cap US companies like Apple and Tesla rely very heavily on supply chains and production controlled by the Chinese, so if China imposes some lockdown that halts their factories and just uses Covid 0 as an excuse, the USA is in a sticky situation because they cant directly come out and say China is using it as an act of economic warfare.
I suspect later this year the Chinese market will have a strong rally due to stimulus, buybacks and further structural propping directly from the CCP. They will most likely yield to some regulatory concerns the USA has around auditing so their big stocks like JD and Alibaba can remain listed on US exchanges.
I understand the hangups a lot of investors have when it comes to China. It's extremely hard to navigate, you can't be too sure on the data and worst of all, the communist party have a bad reputation for abusing human beings. No one can hide that.
However, if one looks at this from the perspective that it was barely 50 years since it was illegal for black people to sit where they like on busses in the USA... you must notice that in the past 5-10 years alone China policy has changed dramatically. The once shameful 'sweat shops' are now almost entirely manned by advanced robots. No doubt in the poorer areas, those sweat shops still exist, but the country is improving rapidly. Healthcare quality and standard of living has gone up dramatically in the past 10 years for the average Chinese person as well. They are not perfect at all, but they are moving in the right direction.
The USA still has problems with guns and mass shootings on a quarterly basis, it strikes me as a little ironic when people like Jeffrey Gundlach label China as un-investible while he's flowing money into the NRA back home. Those same people say 'oh well China doesn't allow families to have more children' well.. the USA just made abortion illegal in 2022. Go fish.
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Raven117
Member
All you can do now is diversify (to the extent you can), and stay consistent with a long term strategy.
Easy money days are over for awhile. Now the market rewards patience and mettle, (In other words, big market capture ETFs that track the market....invest a little each month...ride it out).
Easy money days are over for awhile. Now the market rewards patience and mettle, (In other words, big market capture ETFs that track the market....invest a little each month...ride it out).
Fools idol
Banned
Peter Thiel and Jack Dorsey both just dropped as board members from Twitter and Facebook respectively this morning, Something is definitely up.
Venom Snake
Member
I fully agree with that. Be patient and survive, that's all.
Fools idol
Banned
Never underestimate also the power of being heavy cash. Cash is only trash if you are an asset billionaire already.
No one went broke holding plenty of cash during hard times.
No one went broke holding plenty of cash during hard times.
Raven117
Member
Yeah, but they did see that money not be worth as much.
In the end, over the long-term horizon, you want your cash out there working for you. Not just sitting. Obviously, this is highly dependent on one's own financial situation.
Fools idol
Banned
Baba crushed earnings. Vindication!
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Best week I think I've had in half a year.
Still around 7% off my ATH.
Still around 7% off my ATH.
chromhound
Member
Ellery
Member
Anyone planning to do something with Activision Blizzard after Diablo Immortal has launched now?
Could it possibly be big enough to generate enough microtransaction money to be hailed the next big money milking mobile game or are all the downsides and fundamentals of the stock outside of the range where an entry (or maybe even an exit for some) makes sense?
Could it possibly be big enough to generate enough microtransaction money to be hailed the next big money milking mobile game or are all the downsides and fundamentals of the stock outside of the range where an entry (or maybe even an exit for some) makes sense?