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Xbox Hardware Sales update!
- Thread starter XboxGamers
- Start date
sonycowboy
Member
XboxGamers said:
1) Funny, I posted this hours before here. but I went to sleep, so nahh: http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=7040&page=2
2) It seems people's assumption that Xbox is doing as well in Europe as the US has been completely debunked. In addition, it clearly is not completely destroying the GC there as people have been stating. Those Europe numbers are more than a little week.
I think it will fall a few million short of that.
Chopin Trusty Balls
First casualty in the war on idioticy.
Btw,how much did Nintendo ship by March?
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
I predict that they will drop the price each year from $175 to $149, then $129 and finally $99 until they completely cease production about a year or two after the launch of Xenon. Much like the PSOne, the Xbox will reach a surprisingly wide audience even after Xenon launches because it'll be seen as a valuable purchase for less than $150, especially with all the cheap games available. The Xbox is starting to reach "Sega Genesis" levels, not necessarily in terms of relative sales to the competition, but in terms of mindshare and competitive status in the NA market versus Sony (Nintendo in the SNES days), which is a very good sign going into next gen.
An ending user base of close to 30 mil with 2-3 million Xbox live subscribers is a great 1st achievement by Microsoft, imo, regardless of what the competition has done recently or in the past. A large portion of those Live users will likely jump on board Xenon within the 1st year giving the new system great momentum early on, which, as most of us know, is one of the main keys to becoming a leader in this industry as it tends to have a snowball effect on consumers, retailers, developers, and publishers. Microsoft has positioned itself to really go head-to-head with Sony next gen and finally turn a profit (towards the latter half of next gen) in this highly competitive, but highly lucrative industry, which has already surpassed the film industry in revenues. There'll be even more areas for profits next-gen because in addition to peripherals and games, there will be room to make extra cash on services like online play, additional game content, and entertainment content delivery (Movies, Music, etc.). Microsoft knows what's at stake, and you know they're loading up for next-gen... BIG TIME.
An ending user base of close to 30 mil with 2-3 million Xbox live subscribers is a great 1st achievement by Microsoft, imo, regardless of what the competition has done recently or in the past. A large portion of those Live users will likely jump on board Xenon within the 1st year giving the new system great momentum early on, which, as most of us know, is one of the main keys to becoming a leader in this industry as it tends to have a snowball effect on consumers, retailers, developers, and publishers. Microsoft has positioned itself to really go head-to-head with Sony next gen and finally turn a profit (towards the latter half of next gen) in this highly competitive, but highly lucrative industry, which has already surpassed the film industry in revenues. There'll be even more areas for profits next-gen because in addition to peripherals and games, there will be room to make extra cash on services like online play, additional game content, and entertainment content delivery (Movies, Music, etc.). Microsoft knows what's at stake, and you know they're loading up for next-gen... BIG TIME.
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
Fleming said:
14,570,000
And I'll reitterate, if Xbox 2 launches in the Fall of 2005 in the US then the Xbox 1 will be off of store shelves 6-12 months later (or sooner if enough games come out to fill up the space). These stores are already too crowded.
Even if there was enough shelf space it would make no sense for MS to keep the Xbox 1 on the market as a budget console. They are already losing a ton of money on it. They will release the Xbox 2 at a $300 retail price and possibly lose some money on it but it won't be anywhere near the amount that they are losing now with Xbox 1 selling at $149 or less. In short, MS home entertainment division will never turn a profit as long as Xbox 1 is on the market holding them back. MS will cut their loses and move forward full steam ahead with the Xbox 2.
Also, if the fall 2005 launch for Xbox 2 is correct then there is no way that Xbox 1 shipments will exceed 25-26 million IMO.
efralope said:
Japan is n ot even close to being the 2nd biggest videogame market.
Xbox manufacturing will certainly be out of production. I seriously doubt that MS will even attempt a PSOne type of retooling. MS is currently losing $25 dollars per Xbox sold... GC is losing $20. I expect that neither manufacturer will support the current consoles once the next ones arrive. Sony however is making money, so I expect them to keep producing PS2's as long as there is demand.
The original expectation was 14.5-16 Million. MS definitely hit the high side of it. Expectations for the next FY are over 20 Million, which I think is very conservative. For reference Nintendo expected to ship 15.5 million GC by Mar 04 and fell a million short.
25$ seems a bit low considering the amount of money they lost this year.
Microsoft would lose 25$ and end up with a multi billion debt whereas Nintendo is losing 20$ and having a profitable business with the GC.
Does not seem plausible.
I see Xbox1 being removed quite fast because of
1/ shifiting support from dev
2/ gamers going on board with the Xenon
3/ Ms want to get rid of its debt
Microsoft would lose 25$ and end up with a multi billion debt whereas Nintendo is losing 20$ and having a profitable business with the GC.
Does not seem plausible.
I see Xbox1 being removed quite fast because of
1/ shifiting support from dev
2/ gamers going on board with the Xenon
3/ Ms want to get rid of its debt
TheGreenGiant
Banned
jedimike said:
dream on abou that $25 dollar loss figure. Where did you pull it out of? MS is bleeding with each xbox sold (plus game bundles/freebies they throw out).
jedimike said:
A $25 loss makes NO sense at all. They'd recoup that with one first party game, or two third party titles. Every game after this is profit.
With losses over a billion ($1.000.000.000+) this simply doesn't add up, unless they are spending an obscene amount of money on Live and ads.
CrunchyB said:
from the financial statement...
"The increase in operating loss in fiscal 2004 was primarily due to $141 million of stock-based compensation expense from the employee stock option transfer program in the second quarter of fiscal 2004 and increased sales of negative margin consoles and costs associated with the next generation console development efforts, partially offset by increased Xbox and Mac Office software sales."
sonycowboy
Member
CrunchyB said:
The estimate by Wedbush, was exactly that, an estimate. Based on other sources (notably, Opening the Xbox, which went into detail regarding the contract prices from the heavy hitters (intel, nvidia, DVD, HD,etc, as well as some other analysts reports), the cost are probably a bit higher.
Given that Microsoft's loss seem to be much more than the shipments of their hardware, the loss they're taking on the hardware is only a small part of their overall losses. This is based on the fact that they were able to lose $1.1billion on revenue of $499 million. Consider that their revenue includes hardware, first party software, royalties from 3rd party software, and Live subscriptions, they seem to have been able to lose at least ~4 times more money than thier hardware sold for. Looking at it another way, if they gave away the hardware for free, their losses probably would have only increased by only ~$300 million or so (assuming the same hardware sales, except for the fact that we all would have taken dozens of free xboxes
)America/EMEA/ASia Pacific might be stadard for Microsoft but it certainly isn't for consumer electronics, and games specifically. Just look at finalcials for SCE, Nintendo, Sega Sammy, EA, UbiSoft, Activision, Capcom, Konami or any other multinational in this industry.Rhindle said:
Grow up.Shompola said:
We've gone throught this before. It ranks ahead of the UK (3rd ) by a significant margin.jedimike said:
Where'd you get these figures. You didn't answer me last time you claimed Nintendo was losing $20 per GC.jedimike said:
jarrod said:
First of all, he is talking about a videogame market. Japan as a country might be leading the UK (I say might because UK was consistently outselling Japan on a weekly basis, but we don't get UK hardware figures anymore). However, Europe > Asia. In fact, the European market is expected to be bigger than the US market by 2008.
I don't recall you ever asking... but it is in the Wedbush report. I believe you can still download it from the yahoo videogamestockgroup.
Chittagong
Gold Member
jarrod said:
Those are games business companies. Microsoft is a multi business conglomerate. Look at conglomerates such as Procter & Gamble, Nokia, Hewlett Packard and see how they arrange their business. What I said
Chittagong said:
jedimike said:
This week:
HARDWARE
1 [SCE] PlayStation 2 - 37,871 (1,498,832)
2 [Nintendo] GameBoy Advance SP - 30,217 (1,471,493)
3 [Nintendo] GameCube - 4,684 (407,303)
4 [Nintendo] GameBoy Advance - 1,891 (160,521)
5 [Sony] PSone - 276 (12,460)
6 [Microsoft] Xbox - 272 (22,235)
7 [Bandai] SwanCrystal - 57 (NA)
Now those PS2 sales alone are bigger than this weeks total UK hardware sales
sonycowboy
Member
jedimike said:
Jedi,
I know you know this, but other seem to be confused.
UK <> Europe
UK ~= 1/3 Europe
Japan weekly sales ~= 40k+ on a slow week
UK weekly sales ~= 20k- on a regular week
However, if you factor in the rest of Europe, Japan has been in 3rd for some time.
You should consider, though, that Japan seems to have some economic indicators that point to positive growth and despite the downturn over the past 18+ months, Japan will regain much of thier lost sales and then some. Of course, as you said, Europe is growing MUCH faster.
I just want to see these weekly UK charts. AFAIK, we haven't been getting these for over a year.
edit: Let's assume that UK does in fact equal 1/3rd of European sales.
2003 total console sales
Europe = 2.458 Billion (in $) /3 = 819 Million
Japan = 857 Million (in $)
So last year Japan was greater than Uk by a whopping 38 million dollars
edit: Let's assume that UK does in fact equal 1/3rd of European sales.
2003 total console sales
Europe = 2.458 Billion (in $) /3 = 819 Million
Japan = 857 Million (in $)
So last year Japan was greater than Uk by a whopping 38 million dollars
It already is for Sony actually. Only Nintendo and Microsoft seem to be lagging in the region.jedimike said:
So... why wouldn't a division like MGS conform to industry standards? SCE does it...Chittagong said:
Why discount GBA? Because it doubles your figures?jedimike said:
I asked in the other thread... specifically about the $20 GC loss per unit. Where's did that figure come from?jedimike said:
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
MightyHedgehog
Member
Yes, just like all the sales figues we ever see are estimates, as well. As for XBOX 1 leaving store shelves 6-12 months after Xenon, I doubt it. It could well be actively sold for several years after the advent of MS' next gen console. And as for XBOX not destroying GC in Europe, look at the numbers -- it's approximately in the same position it is, relative to GC, in North America. Not 'destroying' GC but clearly pulling away.
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
They are estimates, but who says only Sony and Nintendo's consoles drop in manufacturing costs and Microsoft's don't??? Alot of the Xbox parts have droppped dramatically in price since it's inception.
No, but it's a part of this industry none the less. Andindustry that's still significantly larger in Japan the UK, despite it's continual slide. It's also worth noting that Japan's at least six months to a year ahead of the UK in terms of platform lifecycles, meaning hardware will reach it's peak sooner. Comparing installed bases or software sales though, and it's easy to see Japan is ahead.jedimike said:
Also, on the last forum Kobun linked to an article showing JP's notable lead over the UK (and not much behind Europe as a whole surpisingly). Maybe he'll save the day again?
Thanks, but those estimates seem a little high for Gamecube. The costs for the console itself (no packaging/controller) dropped to $99 for manufacturing/components over a year and a half ago when Nintendo switched production lines to China and Perrin mentioned their loss was essentially negligible last fall when they dropped to the $99 MSRP. A $20 loss on GC seems almost like the worst case scenario based off the info we have, while a $25 loss on XBox looks like the best case scenario. :/jedimike said:
MightyHedgehog
Member
Well, in MS' case, it's very difficult to drop in production price so easily with X1... Nintendo's painted themselves into a sort of similar position, but really mostly because the system is selling so low. Sony is the only one in a position to drop faster without incurring a loss.
Part of the reason for Microsoft truncating XBox's lifespan and getting Xenon out there is too get XBox off shelves. The development community is already dropping the platform, retail will follow and sooner than you think... Microsoft wants to switch over from their loss taker as soon as possible. Looking at their 2005 lineup (in comparison to Sony or Nintendo) and you can see where the resources are going already...MightyHedgehog said:
MightyHedgehog
Member
Maybe, but I'm not convinced that it will be gone from retail lists so quickly.
Alcibiades
Member
jedimike said:Hey at least I have facts and hard numbers backing my statements
do you have facts and hard numbers supporting your assertion that Nintendo loses $20 a GCN?
I'd love to see them...
sonycowboy
Member
open_mouth_ said:
I can't speak towards Nintendo's cost, but here's the difference between Sony & Microsoft's cost:
Sony fabricates thier own chips and the systems themselves. They are able to continually lower cost and don't have to pay a middle man. They started out by making the EE&GS on seperate chips, and over time have moved to 65nm process as well as combining both chips on a single die resulting in huge savings (and something MS couldn't possibly due with the INTEL chip & the NVIDIA card). They also produce their own IO chip and have really scaled down the cost as it was/is the PSone processor.
vs.
Microsoft who contracted the production of their processor to Intel and signed a contract for how many and at what price they would pay for the processors in each year of the systems life. They did the same for the NVidia chip, as well as a variety of other components. The price goes down each year, but not nearly as rapidly as Sony's costs. They also have their production handled by Flextronics who they pay to assemble the systems. That worked well for them this generation for the most part, however, in the large scale they would need to bite the bullet and create their own production lines and make the systems themselves to lower the cost.
Finally, you've got the famous scales of economies. Given that Sony pumps out 4 times the volume in hardware each year (way more if you start to consider their huge consumer electronics business, PSOne & soon PSP), they are able to negotiate better deals for the various components (screws, casing, DVD drives, etc). The more you buy, the cheaper you can buy it for.
jarrod said:
Well if you want to include handhelds then you might as well include PC games to be consistent with the "industry"...Japan's breakdown of sales is 74% console, 17% handheld, and 9%PC. The European market is about 45% pc games, 48% console and 7% handheld.
This is basically how it would breakdown...
Console sales - Japan=UK
Handheld - Japan >>UK
PC games - UK >>>>>>>Japan
The gaming market overall is stronger in the UK than it is in Japan. If we limit it to consoles, Japan has a narrow lead. Add in handhelds and Japan is better yet. It's just not the juggernaut that everyone remembers it being. There was a point in this generation that Japan was better than all of Europe.
sonycowboy
Member
jedimike said:
Jedi, are you meaning Europe when you say UK? If not, Japan has a HUGE lead over the UK in consoles. It's not even close. Especially when you consider the software market. Japan is a year ahead in the console cycle and so it's hardware / software sales reflect that.
sonycowboy
Member
jedimike said:
Some people do have these numbers
I won't say any names.And BTW, ALOT escapes GAF. Alot of people would be in trouble if they posted what happens in private conversations here.
Nintendo works with NEC on production/manufacturing chiefly I believe (Nintendo helped fund the building of some huge NEC plant iirc) so they outsource as well. But unlike Microsoft, they made deals with technology parters (IBM, ATi, Matsushitsa) that involve profit sharing on consoles rather simply paying a set fee for components (which is far less risky). They not eating huge costs like MS but they're not making huge savings from internal maufacturing like Sony either... and next generation Microsoft seems to be "following their lead" when it comes to console design philosophies.
Well, consoles in Japan alone are still way ahead of the UK, unless you've got the exact figures to show otherwise. And if you stretch into open markets like PC for gaming, how about throwing in mobile and amusement.jedimike said:
Then again, let's look at software sales. How many million sellers have there been in the UK this generation?
jarrod said:
Dude, I would love to... I already showed you the 2003 figures, which showed Japan ahead of UK by a little bit (granted this is using sonycowboy's 1/3 estimate). Considering that Japan is still declining and UK is still growing, it's not hard to imagine UK besting Japan... but nobody wants to cough up the weekly UK figures