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[Crash Station]

Absolutely, Persona 5. I hope SE sees the results of people on GAF so far and realize there's still a large market for turn-based RPGs on consoles. And then goes down that route with 16

They can't even make games that were always turn-based turn-based. There's no way they'd make a new mainline entry in their premiere AAA franchise turn-based.

 

[sappyday]

I would get both but my life will probably explode of hype

 

[NoctisVsStar]

If my numbers seem a bit high, I'm mentally adjusting for this being the only numbered Final Fantasy this generation and thus having a very long shelf life at low prices.

That and Tabata pretty much confirmed a late PC port at GamesCom so that's got to add a decent number over quite a few years.

Versus combat mods on PC

 

[Crash Station]

FFXV cause I've never played a Persona game and have no desire to buy a vita TV and memory card to play 4.

If you get the physical version, you wouldn't need a memory card. The hardware and game is like $40 combined provided you have a PS3/PS4 controller.

 

[Perfo]

Definitely going for FFXV. I've never been interested in any shin megami ten sei series or sub series afterall.

 

[Ryuuga]

Definitely going for FFXV. I've never been interested in any shin megami ten sei series or sub series afterall.

Somehow I had you pegged as more of Persona guy.

 

[Squire]

I was making fun of how improbable it would be.

We're comparing a series where the last game shipped 7.5 million copies to one that shipped 1 million copies.


I expect 4-5 million with maybe an upside of 6 million. It just doesn't look immediately compelling enough to have a major step change in the West and Japan is going to be hampered heavily by the PS4.

Square Enix wants it to be the best selling one ever (so over 11 million).

I'd be surprised if they've lost enough brand value to go below 4 million.

That sounds about right. 4-5 is about what I'm thinking. Would be surprised to see it exceed that. It just doesn't seem to be winning people over to that extent.

 

[NoctisVsStar]

Somehow I had you pegged as more of Persona guy.

He loves 13.. Lightning has blinded perfo from seeing the light.

 

[dramatis]

I was making fun of how improbable it would be.

We're comparing a series where the last game shipped 7.5 million copies to one that shipped 1 million copies.


I expect 4-5 million with maybe an upside of 6 million. It just doesn't look immediately compelling enough to have a major step change in the West and Japan is going to be hampered heavily by the PS4.

Square Enix wants it to be the best selling one ever (so over 11 million).

I'd be surprised if they've lost enough brand value to go below 4 million.

I'm more curious about how FF7R will sell myself lol

A while back I thought it would be hard to predict what 15 will do worldwide given the effects of 13/14. As it gets closer to release date I think it'll probably perform around or slightly less than 12/13 level.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Persona 5


Oh wait, I'm in Europe.

lol, maybe Square-Enix will end up publishing P5 like they did P4.

 

[Error]

I wonder why didn't SE just buy Atlus once Index went under.

 

[Shahed]

If my numbers seem a bit high, I'm mentally adjusting for this being the only numbered Final Fantasy this generation and thus having a very long shelf life at low prices.

That and Tabata pretty much confirmed a late PC port at GamesCom so that's got to add a decent number over quite a few years.

Ah I forgot about the inevitable PC release. That should help the numbers somewhat. Reception and word of mouth for this game is vital and Square need it to deliver.

And there's every chance for this game to be the only mainline FF this generation leading to a long tail. However FFVIIR could easily take the wind out of it's sales. There's still a lot to announce for FFXV in March and beyond, but it kind of feels like as soon as the FFVII was announced and the gameplay demo at PSX was shown, a lot of the the anticipation for FFXV vanished. But then again who knows how long that will take to release.

 

[Immaculate]

Persona 5.

.

 

[DNAbro]

From Jason at Kotaku

 

[artsi]

Absolutely, Persona 5. I hope SE sees the results of people on GAF so far and realize there's still a large market for turn-based RPGs on consoles. And then goes down that route with 16

Unfortunately, they'll most likely just look at the numbers and see FFXV destroying Persona 5 in sales.

Persona 5 is good but the market is not that big.

 

[Sn4ke_911]

Persona 5

 

[Error]

From Jason at Kotaku

Wow it's really close, funny how the tables have turned.

 

[pirata]

What a world we live in that Square-Enix is possibly concerned about getting a Final Fantasy out of the way of Persona 5.

The one where SE has spent the last decade or so pissing away the prestige of Final Fantasy while Atlus has been doing amazing, amazing things with Persona.

 

[GwyndolinCinder]

I really hope videogamer make their neogaf christmas carol about this thread.
"Its not full anime though, its just anime"

 

[Sn4ke_911]

Wow it's really close, funny how the tables have turned.

Most euros vote for FF because they don't even know what a persona is.

btw. Thanks Atlus

 

[FluxWaveZ]

From Jason at Kotaku

The results being close like this in similar polls at least indicates that Persona has entered the mindset of enthusiasts to the point where Final Fantasy doesn't have a landslide victory.

 

[Chie Satonaka]

So this might have already been covered, but 20 pages.

Is FF15 really as anticipated as Persona 5 is? I mean, I know FF15 will outsell P5 considerably because Final Fantasy is a bigger brand name, but I guess I'm just not seeing the same level of hype and anticipation.

I could be totally off base here, though. In the case of FF15, at the very least, people have played it and there's been information trickling out (even if some of that information is mundane). On the other hand, Persona 5 only exists in trailers, and only little sprinklings of gameplay within those. I suppose actually playing a game might drive up the anticipation for wanting the real thing.

Just my observations. I could be totally incorrect.

In any case, Persona 5. I'll absolutely purchase FF15, but it's not very high on my priority list or most anticipated games for next year.

 

[Teppic]

Persona 5.

 

[ULTROS!]

Wow it's really close, funny how the tables have turned.

Not really. The more hardcore niche crowd will vote for Persona 5 but overall, a heck lot people will still buy FFXV.

 

[Nirolak]

That sounds about right. 4-5 is about what I'm thinking. Would be surprised to see it exceed that. It just doesn't seem to be winning people over to that extent.

Ah I forgot about the inevitable PC release. That should help the numbers somewhat. Reception and word of mouth for this game is vital and Square need it to deliver.

And there's every chance for this game to be the only mainline FF this generation leading to a long tail. However FFVIIR could easily take the wind out of it's sales. There's still a lot to announce for FFXV in March and beyond, but it kind of feels like as soon as the FFVII was announced and the gameplay demo at PSX was shown, a lot of the the anticipation for FFXV vanished. But then again who knows how long that will take to release.

My math pretty much works out as follows.

First, the low end. It would be pretty shocking if they couldn't ship 1 million in Japan + Asia. They usually do about 2/3rds of their business outside of Japan, but Japan is depressed due to the PS4, so I'll round up to about 1.25 million per NA and Europe each. Put in 500K over several years for an eventual PC port (FF13 has pretty much done that) for 4 million.

On the higher end, let's say it hits 1.5 million in Japan, sells 2/3rds outside of Japan for 1.5 million in each other region for 4.5 million. If we put in 750K for PC over two years (which is more on par with what Metal Gear has done in ~4 months, and FF7 has already done 920K on Steam), you get 5.25 million. If the game is an ~85-88 type of title, on the console side maybe you get something like 2 million in North America and 1.75 million in Europe instead of an average of 1.5 million each and hit 6 million.

Now, if they just totally blow it out of the water, sure, it could get a lot higher, but I'm not writing that down into the expectations until I see something that really screams "Wow this is going to be huge!" at me.

 

[Crash Station]

From Jason at Kotaku

Damn, that's a good sample size too.

While FFXV will still sell a lot more than P5, I imagine the latter is going to experience some nice growth provided there's good reception and it doesn't release in a shark-infested time period.

 

[Shadow_FFVI]

People are sleeping on FF XV.

I think it can be a return to form. I'd buy XV first.

 

[Asd202]

From Jason at Kotaku

Damn son Persona build up some serious mindshare over the last few years.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Is FF15 really as anticipated as Persona 5 is? I mean, I know FF15 will outsell P5 considerably because Final Fantasy is a bigger brand name, but I guess I'm just not seeing the same level of hype and anticipation.

.

You answered your own question.

 

[Error]

Not really. The more hardcore niche crowd will vote for Persona 5 but overall, a heck lot people will still buy FFXV.

A niche game would not be beating a mainline FF even amongst the hardcore.

 

[HeelPower]

Damn son Persona build up some serious mindshare over the last few years.

Despite having no new releases for years.

Its quite strange actually.A testament to fan dedication and good word of mouth.

 

[Yabberwocky]

Persona 5. But I probably won't have to choose because Europe.

Ha, this.

 

[NoctisVsStar]

For better or worse XV day 0 or whenever it releases..Like Noctis said in that epic Nomura E3 2013 trailer "My Heart won't let go"


I'm getting both anyway day-0 but the journey with XV is just something I've never experienced before.

 

[ULTROS!]

Damn son Persona build up some serious mindshare over the last few years.

The sad thing about P5 is that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

 

[NoctisVsStar]

The sad thing about that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

Nomura's vision would've led the way but at this point I'm hoping Tabata can hold the fort and impress the fans. I'm positive despite all the changes my faith hasn't been waivered. People like M_Night make you steer away from those dark thoughts.

 

[Makoto Yuki]

A niche game would not be beating a mainline FF even amongst the hardcore.

In a world where Undertale wins GameFAQs best game ever, polls don't really mean shit.

 

[Steel]

The sad thing about that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

Persona 3 is preferred amongst a lot of the persona fanbase, actually. All Persona 5 really has to be is a different story in a different location with improved gameplay to get people to like it.

 

[chozen]

Holy I don't even understand the Persona 5 hype, I've seen a lot of people in this forum who haven't even played Persona 4 and they are hyping 5 like what?

 

[Asd202]

The sad thing about P5 is that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

But what if it doesn't? We just have to wait a see what happen.

 

[Shadow_FFVI]

Surprised they're so scared of Persona.

Doubt they are.

 

[DNAbro]

The sad thing about P5 is that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

Persona 5 needs to surpass P4 from a gameplay perspective. It absolutely has to do that. It will be hard to surpass the story and characters of P4 though.

A niche game would not be beating a mainline FF even amongst the hardcore.

wait till P5 is most anticipated game on Gaf.

 

[NoctisVsStar]

Holy I don't even understand the Persona 5 hype, I've seen a lot of people in this forum who haven't even played Persona 4 and they are hyping 5 like what?

Persona 3 > Persona 4

Both are great I just like the despair.

 

[Shahed]

My math pretty much works out as follows.

First, the low end. It would be pretty shocking if they couldn't ship 1 million in Japan + Asia. They usually do about 2/3rds of their business outside of Japan, but Japan is depressed due to the PS4, so I'll round up to about 1.25 million per NA and Europe each. Put in 500K over several years for an eventual PC port (FF13 has pretty much done that) for 4 million.

On the higher end, let's say it hits 1.5 million in Japan, sells 2/3rds outside of Japan for 1.5 million in each other region for 4.5 million. If we put in 750K for PC over two years (which is more on par with what Metal Gear has done in ~4 months, and FF7 has already done 920K on Steam), you get 5.25 million. If the game is an ~85-88 type of title, on the console side maybe you get something like 2 million in North America and 1.75 million in Europe instead of an average of 1.5 million each and hit 6 million.

Now, if they just totally blow it out of the water, sure, it could get a lot higher, but I'm not writing that down into the expectations until I see something that really screams "Wow this is going to be huge!" at me.

The suppose the math works out. I had the western sales lower in my head as the difference. The brand has fallen a bit, but mainly because I think the West in general has moved on and just doesn't see the appeal of Japanese games like that anymore. Sure I love them and want them to do well, but the rise of WRPG'S and western games in general over the last decade has hit their audience a lot and I'm not sure enough of them exist.

I also don't think the game has demonstrated enough to excite people either. That may change over the next year and I'll happily be wrong about the decline I expect. We'll see though.

 

[HeelPower]

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

I don't think it will.

P4 is a deeply flawed game.The dungeon designs are pure garbage and there are many points that can easily use improvement in P4.

Even the social sim aspects could use a bit more refining and flexibility.

P5 I think had more than enough time to improve these aspects.

 

[Ryuuga]

The sad thing about P5 is that the hype has been geared up very very high and it has to surpass P4, which is an incredible game already. Anything on par with P3 or a notch below P4 will probably spell out disappointment to the others. This is what FFXV is facing right now, only the expectations about XV/Versus XIII being dark, edgy, and having big maps is still there.

People are expecting P5 to not disappoint at all... But what if it did?

You're right, I'd be much more crushed if P5 dropped the ball where with FFXV it's a given.

 

[Asd202]

You're right, I'd be much more crushed if P5 dropped the ball where with FFXV it's a given.

Heh the lowered expectation for XV may actually do the game a favor

Spoiler

hopefully

. Now that I think about it's the opposite of what was happening with XIII before release. Most people thought that game would be great and some went as far as saying that the age of Sony is done when it went multiplatform .

 

[Makoto Yuki]

I have a hard time seeing P5 fail, let alone disappoint people. It looks like its finding a balance between the light-hearted-ness of P4 and the seriousness of P3.

I just don't want it to be a JUST P4/P3 in HD with better dungeons, I hope the gameplay and flow has changed in ways I didn't know I wanted. I'm hoping for more surprises.

 

[Rozart]

P5 winning out against the JRPG behemoth that is FF. What a crazy world we live in.

Atlus is playing with the big boys now.

 

[ThaPhantom]

Persona 5 easily

 

[Chie Satonaka]

You answered your own question.

I mean, not really. I was asking within the context of hype and anticipation, not people who are like me who will buy the game cause it's a Final Fantasy game, not because they're just super stoked about it.

In any event, that poll posted was interesting, and also made me realize I'm probably thinking about this way too much.