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[Basileus777]

I've been waiting for these books to be published for over 16 years now, it's just a part of life that doesn't trouble me. Though I wish I had more confidence that they would be good after AFFC and especially ADWD. The fact that Winds is taking so long isn't a positive sign for its quality either.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

How much planning/outlining did Rowling do? What's her writing habits and style? I never read HP but going by the page counts of the initial UK releases, as inaccurate as this is, Rowling put out more pages over the course of nine those years than George has in the last 16.

If these word counts are accurate ASOIAF is currently at 1,842,762 and Harry Potter finished with 1,084,170. Not counting prep/writing time before the first book, that was about nine years and a month while ASOIAF is still be on going for 20 years and five months in a few weeks. If Rowling kept writing Harry Potter books at the pace she did the last three with similar word counts Harry Potter would be ahead of GRRM next year and TWoW would probably put him back ahead until another HP book from Rowling in 2019. Averaging out all the books she'd be about where he is now in 2017, 20 years after the first Potter book came out.

She did put out three novels in a new crime fiction series under a pseudonym the last three years too apparently.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3froem/spoilers_all_i_made_a_word_count_of_the_whole/

https://wordcounter.net/blog/2015/11/23/10922_how-many-words-harry-potter.html


In the end though it isn't word count, page count or any of this stuff that matters it's how the writer writes and we know George is very particular with a style that is probably the worst style to have for something of this scope.

 

[WaffleTaco]

How much planning/outlining did Rowling do? What's her writing habits and style? I never read HP but going by the page counts of the initial UK releases, as inaccurate as this is, Rowling put out more pages over the course of nine those years than George has in the last 16.

If these word counts are accurate ASOIAF is currently at 1,842,762 and Harry Potter finished with 1,084,170. Not counting prep/writing time before the first book, that was about nine years and a month while ASOIAF is still be on going for 20 years and five months in a few weeks. If Rowling kept writing Harry Potter books at the pace she did the last three with similar word counts Harry Potter would be ahead of GRRM next year and TWoW would probably put him back ahead until another HP book from Rowling in 2019. Averaging out all the books she'd be about where he is now in 2017, 20 years after the first Potter book came out.

She did put out three novels in a new crime fiction series under a pseudonym the last three years too apparently.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3froem/spoilers_all_i_made_a_word_count_of_the_whole/

https://wordcounter.net/blog/2015/11/23/10922_how-many-words-harry-potter.html


In the end though it isn't word count, page count or any of this stuff that matters it's how the writer writes and we know George is very particular with a style that is probably the worst style to have for something of this scope.

I feel like it's a very poor comparison, because one is more for adults, and another is more of for kids and up. Not only that, but ASOIAF is wayyyyy more complex with different points of view, and still an ever evolving cast of characters, plots and so forth.

 

[Basileus777]

I feel like it's a very poor comparison, because one is more for adults, and another is more of for kids and up. Not only that, but ASOIAF is wayyyyy more complex with different points of view, and still an ever evolving cast of characters, plots and so forth.

I don't really see the relevance of the target demographic, but yes the complexity is the issue. It's a large part of why GRRM lost control of the structure of the series post ASOS.

 

[Veelk]

I feel like people doing word counts to try and compare artists my metrics have the wrong idea.

Harry Potter and A Song of Ice and Fire are vastly different kinds of stories.

Harry Potter is entirely from the perspective of one character, aside from one or two chapters, and Rowling has to deal with a few other factions operating 'outside the page' (meaning Order of the Pheonx, Voldemort's Death Eaters, and the Teachers of Hogwarts, unless I'm forgetting someone) while they write. GRRM has 8 or more point of view characters at any given book, who are all going their own separate storyline (except for Game of Thrones, where Ned and his family were all basically together through the work) In addition to that, he has literally dozens of factions he has to keep an eye on. And he has to tie all that together into something resembling a cohesive narrative. In addition to that, he's also doing other projects. For example, does that graph count the Dunk and Egg short stories he wrote? Or the History book?

Plus, regardless of what you think of quality, when you get down to it, not all writers work the same way. Some can make a draft, go through 2 or 3 revisions, and boom, done. Brandon Sanderson seems to work this way. Other writers, which George seems to be, revise a dozen times over. Since someone mentioned Rothfuss, from interviews, he revised his novella literally 80 times before he was satisfied with it, and that was on the light side for him. I think he mentioned Name of the Wind and Wise Man's fear got 120+ revisions.

Sorry, but it just seems so stupid. I don't try to aggrandize the writing process at all, because it's work and you just sit your ass down and do it. For some people, sitting their asses down and doing it means 5 years. And as long as he's actually doing it, which isn't information any of us are privy to unless we know him personally, I just can't get over people complaining about him being lazy.

 

[Basileus777]

I feel like people doing word counts to try and compare artists my metrics have the wrong idea.

Yeah, you're never going to get an apples to apples comparison.

Sorry, but it just seems so stupid. I don't try to aggrandize the writing process at all, because it's work and you just sit your ass down and do it. For some people, sitting their asses down and doing it means 5 years. And as long as he's actually doing it, which isn't information any of us are privy to unless we know him personally, I just can't get over people complaining about him being lazy.

Yeah, he's slow, but I don't really feel the need to call him lazy over it. Though people quoting that Gaiman thing can be just as annoying as those that do go there.

 

[WaffleTaco]

I don't really see the relevance of the target demographic, but yes the complexity is the issue. It's a large part of why GRRM lost control of the structure of the series post ASOS.

I would say that a book that can be read by children is probably a lot simpler in regards to words, therefor making it easier to read.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

At this point I don't think the problem is that he hasn't reached a specific manuscript page count (1500), but that he has a lot of material and isn't close to completion. He might be well over 1500 MS by now, with no end in sight. All the POVs being back together requires a certain level of pacing and progression, ie more like ASOS. But I get the impression he's writing the book as if it's AFFC/ADWD, where he had fewer characters/chapters and more time for world building and other page fluffing.

Look at those Arrianne chapters for instance. I'll spoiler tag but it's nothing major:

Spoiler

She sets out to meet someone in the first chapter, and by the end of her second chapter still has not met the person. Yes there are multiple interesting moments in both chapters, and interesting set ups (Dorne v Dany is clear) but ultimately it's still a travel-logue that should have been one chapter.

If we extrapolate that type of pacing throughout the novel there's virtually no way for him to finish it in 1500 pages and 80something chapters.

He needs someone to basically tell him the time for world building is over. It's time to wrap this shit up. I could be completely wrong but I just can't help but think we're close to him admitting defeat and announcing another book split. Which of course just kicks the can down the road. He needs to reign in the series structurally. There's still time.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

It's not as if GRRM uses a lot of big, complex words, there's just a lot of them in general and when it comes to the last two books a great deal of padding. Obviously this series is more complex but the issues that have crept up from that still comes down to George's method.

 

[Basileus777]

At this point I don't think the problem is that he hasn't reached a specific manuscript page count (1500), but that he has a lot of material and isn't close to completion. He might be well over 1500 MS by now, with no end in sight. All the POVs being back together requires a certain level of pacing and progression, ie more like ASOS. But I get the impression he's writing the book as if it's AFFC/ADWD, where he had fewer characters/chapters and more time for world building and other page fluffing.

Look at those Arrianne chapters for instance. I'll spoiler tag but it's nothing major:

Spoiler

She sets out to meet someone in the first chapter, and by the end of her second chapter still has not met the person. Yes there are multiple interesting moments in both chapters, and interesting set ups (Dorne v Dany is clear) but ultimately it's still a travel-logue that should have been one chapter.

If we extrapolate that type of pacing throughout the novel there's virtually no way for him to finish it in 1500 pages and 80something chapters.

He needs someone to basically tell him the time for world building is over. It's time to wrap this shit up. I could be completely wrong but I just can't help but think we're close to him admitting defeat and announcing another book split. Which of course just kicks the can down the road. He needs to reign in the series structurally. There's still time.

I accepted that finishing the series in 7 books was impossible as soon as I read ADWD. I don't really expect him to drastically change the pacing of his chapters now either, not when he faces zero editorial pressure. I'm not sure there is still time though, all the expansion of scope he did in AFFC/ADWD has to be dealt with.

 

[Tubie]

At this point I don't think the problem is that he hasn't reached a specific manuscript page count (1500), but that he has a lot of material and isn't close to completion. He might be well over 1500 MS by now, with no end in sight. All the POVs being back together requires a certain level of pacing and progression, ie more like ASOS. But I get the impression he's writing the book as if it's AFFC/ADWD, where he had fewer characters/chapters and more time for world building and other page fluffing.

Look at those Arrianne chapters for instance. I'll spoiler tag but it's nothing major:

Spoiler

She sets out to meet someone in the first chapter, and by the end of her second chapter still has not met the person. Yes there are multiple interesting moments in both chapters, and interesting set ups (Dorne v Dany is clear) but ultimately it's still a travel-logue that should have been one chapter.

If we extrapolate that type of pacing throughout the novel there's virtually no way for him to finish it in 1500 pages and 80something chapters.

He needs someone to basically tell him the time for world building is over. It's time to wrap this shit up. I could be completely wrong but I just can't help but think we're close to him admitting defeat and announcing another book split. Which of course just kicks the can down the road. He needs to reign in the series structurally. There's still time.

Yea I got really worried as soon he started releasing sample chapters, the pace in them is the same or even slower than ADWD. I would not be surprised at all if it takes him an entire book or more to get Dany even close to a boat.

There is no way he can finish the story in 7 books, I wouldn't be surprised if it actually took him 9 or 10.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Honestly I think once Dany gets to Westeros, it will start to go really fast as she will have a massive army. However I could see there being eight books with the last two only 700 pages and basically cut in half say like Season 3 & Season 4.

 

[Purple Cheeto]

It's not as if GRRM uses a lot of big, complex words, there's just a lot of them in general and when it comes to the last two books a great deal of padding. Obviously this series is more complex but the issues that have crept up from that still comes down to George's method.

Let's be honest, the real issue is he had a trilogy in mind and didnt plan beyond that initial scope and now he has no idea how to resolve it (and has written himself into a lot of logical corners that are nigh on unresolvable) and he really has no incentive TO finish it.

There's a part of me that even buys into the theories that he let that nutjob Linda write large portions of books 4a and 4b.

He's not working: http://grrm.livejournal.com/508660.html

 

[RatskyWatsky]

He's not working: http://grrm.livejournal.com/508660.html

My first real visit to Mexico starts tomorrow, when I jet down to Guadalajara for the Guadalajara International Book Fair.

This is my last scheduled event for 2016. My appearance schedule for 2017 is very limited, and will remain so until WINDS is completed. So if you want to meet me or get a book signed, this will be the last chance for a good few months...

So basically: The Winds of Winter is still, at the very least, "a good few months" away.

 

[Aiii]

So basically: The Winds of Winter is still, at the very least, "a good few months" away.

Words are wind, this time last year he intended to complete the book before Game of Thrones Season 6 hit.

 

[RatskyWatsky]

Words are wind, this time last year he intended to complete the book before Game of Thrones Season 6 hit.

yeah...

 

[Cesare Borgia]

He's almost certainly gonna miss the S7 deadline too, amazing. Despite S7 starting months later than usual.

 

[Basileus777]

Words are wind, this time last year he intended to complete the book before Game of Thrones Season 6 hit.

He thought he was a few good months away in 2015.

 

[ZeroRay]

To be fair, most, if not all of the Winds sample chapters have been Dance holdovers. The Arianne ones definitely were.

Of course, that doesn't mean GRRM isn't writing them the same way he did the Feast and Dance chapters. It could mean, like Cesare said, that he's struggling to make something finished/cohesive. Whether that's trying to finish a book that's already bloated in the same way Dance was, and/or needing to rewrite a lot of it cause it wouldn't work for whatever reasons.

 

[Brakke]

He thought he was a few good months away in 2015.

But 2016 didn't have any good months in it so makes sense he didn't fill his good months quota yet.

 

[RatskyWatsky]

Of course, that doesn't mean GRRM isn't writing them the same way he did the Feast and Dance chapters. It could mean, like Cesare said, that he's struggling to make something finished/cohesive. Whether that's trying to finish a book that's already bloated in the same way Dance was, and/or needing to rewrite a lot of it cause it wouldn't work for whatever reasons.

Part of me wonders if the reason TWOW is taking so long is because he's trying to think of ways to further differentiate the books from the show. Like, we already know he decided to incorporate a new twist that wasn't possible in the show, so maybe he's trying to come up with more things like that or different endgames for the characters or something.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Part of me wonders if the reason TWOW is taking so long is because he's trying to think of ways to further differentiate the books from the show. Like, we already know he decided to incorporate a new twist that wasn't possible in the show, so maybe he's trying to come up with more things like that or different endgames for the characters or something.

I would say this as well. I'm thinking he is testing out how people react to certain things.

 

[Aiii]

The real reason is that he just isn't writing a whole lot of pages.

 

[Purple Cheeto]

Part of me wonders if the reason TWOW is taking so long is because he's trying to think of ways to further differentiate the books from the show. Like, we already know he decided to incorporate a new twist that wasn't possible in the show, so maybe he's trying to come up with more things like that or different endgames for the characters or something.

It's taking so long because he hasn't written a single new chapter since ADwD.

Considering all the weird jumps the show had to take to remotely resolve the mess that is the plot line and the reactions to those resolutions I can see who George, a man who hates everything about ASoIaF except the money and celebrity it has brought him, wouldn't feel compelled to do any more hard work on it.

He likes being a celebrity and Wild Cards and blogging. He doesn't like actual work.

 

[Tubie]

He likes being a celebrity and Wild Cards and blogging. He doesn't like actual work.

But how else am I to know how the Giants and Jets are doing if he stops that!?

 

[butalala]

What's the source for the claim that George hates ASOIAF?

 

[Dysun]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

I believe!

Spoiler

12 months later...

 

[TwntyOneTwlv]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

You sweet summer child.

 

[Aiii]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

Is this like hoping to win the jackpot in the lottery?

Spoiler

Probably a higher chance on that.

 

[Lothar]

What's the source for the claim that George hates ASOIAF?

Wikipedia his release dates of the series and read his blog.

Lol, he didn't even give us an update this New Years.

 

[ElTorro]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

 

[Shadow Broker]

So who wins the iron throne?

I care about the ending more than the journey.

 

[turmoil]

If GRRM and the editorial announce the release date to mid 2018 by dec this year I would consider me lucky.

 

[Bounceounce]

Wikipedia his release dates of the series and read his blog.

Lol, he didn't even give us an update this New Years.

Criticize him for his speed all you want, but it sounds like complete bullshit to sat he hates this series imo.

 

[M.Bluth]

It would indeed be catastrophic if he at some point thought he's close enough to finishing the book by the end of 2016, and even after clearing everything for this year explicitly to complete work on it, and yet fails to release it before the end of 2017.

I do think it's more likely Winds will come out this year than ever before, but the question is, how long would it take him to finish Dream. Is that even going to be the final book?

So who wins the iron throne?

I care about the ending more than the journey.

I don't think there will be an iron throne by the end of the series.

 

[Basileus777]

It would indeed be catastrophic if he at some point thought he's close enough to finishing the book by the end of 2016, and even after clearing everything for this year explicitly to complete work on it, and yet fails to release it before the end of 2017.

This has already happened! He thought he could finish it in 2015.

 

[Kuraudo]

This has already happened! He thought he could finish it in 2015.

Not just him: the entire publishing industry and HBO.

It seems pretty likely at this point that the problem isn't Martin's writing pace, but some structural or plot problem that he's struggling to resolve. I hate to think of how much he's written and had to discard over the past year.

 

[Aiii]

I do think it's more likely Winds will come out this year than ever before, but the question is, how long would it take him to finish Dream. Is that even going to be the final book?.

Winds will be his final book.

Not just him: the entire publishing industry and HBO.

It seems pretty likely at this point that the problem isn't Martin's writing pace, but some structural or plot problem that he's struggling to resolve. I hate to think of how much he's written and had to discard over the past year.

Nah, he used that excuse to explain the delays after book 4. The problem is likely that he lost interest in writing this series and simply procrastinates his days away.

 

[Tuck]

Winds will be his final book.

Yeah I second this. We won't ever get to read A Dream of Spring.

Though we may get to read parts of it.

 

[golem]

Yeah its completely obvious that he has lost all creative steam on the series and has since AFFC. For the record that was over 12 years ago. As a day 1 book reader since ACOK, I wish he would just stand up to his fan base and admit he's done. Announce new writers for the series instead of dragging out this drama.

 

[M.Bluth]

Criticize him for his speed all you want, but it sounds like complete bullshit to sat he hates this series imo.

It must be a constant source of frustration for him. I imagine he gets pissed off every time he tries to work on it and gets writer's block, or every time he fails at meeting a deadline.

Saying that his pace is proof that he hates the series is ludicrous, though.

This has already happened! He thought he could finish it in 2015.

I know, but he still didn't clear his schedule to the same degree as he's been doing lately.
I'm not saying he'll definitely finish it, more that he believes he's closer to the end of the tunnel than ever before.

 

[jett]

Yeah its completely obvious that he has lost all creative steam on the series and has since AFFC. For the record that was over 12 years ago. As a day 1 book reader since ACOK, I wish he would just stand up to his fan base and admit he's done. Announce new writers for the series instead of dragging out this drama.

Seems a bit extreme, but he does seem tapped out creatively. Been six years, and this time, unlike the previous two times, he has no real excuse to fall back on.

At this point I'm content with the show finishing off the story.

It would indeed be catastrophic if he at some point thought he's close enough to finishing the book by the end of 2016, and even after clearing everything for this year explicitly to complete work on it, and yet fails to release it before the end of 2017.

I do think it's more likely Winds will come out this year than ever before, but the question is, how long would it take him to finish Dream. Is that even going to be the final book?

This is what really makes me not stress over the books. Winds of Winter isn't even the final book. A Dream of Spring probably won't be the final book, I certainly can't see GRRM wrapping everything considering the absolute glacial pace shit moved at in ADWD. I can't be bothered to play the waiting game with this stuff. I'm just glad the TV show is a thing and I'm getting some sort of conclusion.

I don't think there will be an iron throne by the end of the series.

Kind of expecting a sort of apocalyptic situation that upends the law and order of this world. Not like I'll ever get to read it.

 

[golem]

Seems a bit extreme, but he does seem tapped out creatively. Been six years, and this time, unlike the previous two times, he has no real excuse to fall back on.

I'm not inside his head obviously, but it seems he'd rather be doing anything else than write the series at this point. If he is only doing it to satisfy the fans (and his own ego/legacy/etc), I'd rather he not and pursue things he has enthusiasm for.

Be free Martin, be free!

 

[Azzanadra]

No big year end blog this time around?

Whatever.

I have felt my passion fading from this franchise, years ago I would always be on the wiki reading some obscure facts or on reddit/westeros.org reading all sorts of theories... now? I feel like GRRM's lack of care for his series has extended onto me. If he doesn't give a fuck, why should I?

You know I give them a lot of shit, but thank you D&D for being able to provide some sort of ending to this story. To be fair I would read the story beats in jot note form of a piece wet tissue paper at this point just to get some form of conclusion, so the fact that we are getting a somewhat loose TV adaption is good enough... at least we will know (or already know) what happens to the major characters.

 

[Lothar]

Criticize him for his speed all you want, but it sounds like complete bullshit to sat he hates this series imo.

He refers to the series as a gorilla on his back. For the last 10 years, every time he mentions the series on his blog, he sounds annoyed. He complains about his fans bitching.

Look at this blog entry last year.

And... because I know how much bitching I'd get if I offered a new sample from Wild Cards without also doing one from A SONG OF ICE & FIRE... we've also changed the WINDS OF WINTER sample on my wesbite, replacing the Alayne chapter that's been there for the past year with one featuring Arianne Martell. (Some of you may have heard me read this one at cons).

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Expecting the typical GRRM year-end update in a few hours or days. Which will basically detail (in great length) all the non-Winds stuff he did, how great it was, how excited it was to edit books no one reads, etc etc etc. Followed by a brief paragraph or two about Winds that says he didn't make the progress he hoped for, it'll be out when it's done, etc etc etc.

At this rate I don't think it'll be out before the next season. And if he does pull it off, it'll be out like a month or less before the season starts. Mind you the season probably starts in July this year.

It's like even when the show tries to throw him a bone he fucks it up. Last season didn't have a lot of spoilers, in fact most of the stuff was figured out or expected. This upcoming season will presumably be the year when the big bombs drop, some of which will likely be from Winds' ending and beyond. Yet he still won't get the book out in time, in all likelihood. Amazing.

 

[ElTorro]

My last hope is that he decided to just fast-track the story to its conclusion, resulting in a small last book that he might already have finished in parts. Just copy the show's damn script.

My fear is that he is just lost in a convoluted story with no end in sight and no way to wrap it up in "just" two more books.

The latter is more probable.

 

[RatskyWatsky]

Here's to hoping for Winds of Winter this year

Here here!

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Winds of Winter finishes with the planet being struck by the red comet as the sun suddenly goes super nova without any warning or explanation.