Assassin's Creed: Shadows releases on Steam with CCU of ~65k (highest series launch on the platform)

Predict AC: Shadows Peak CCU

  • Less than 50k

    Votes: 77 33.6%
  • 50k - 100k

    Votes: 121 52.8%
  • 100k - 200k

    Votes: 20 8.7%
  • Above 200k

    Votes: 11 4.8%

  • Total voters
    229

Topher

Identifies as young
It doesn't require it, but it certainly begs the question. I've always thought gaming forum posters vastly underestimate the material value of the industry knowledge they have. At this moment in time, I think an active GAF poster has a better chance at predicting sales success than the consultants at big publishers. Look no further than the 2024 bombas. None of those shocked GAF, but they sure shocked the fuck out of EA, WB and Sony. Anybody not playing in that sandbox is leaving free money on the table. Every one of those plays was an effortless W.

Ran into a similar goldmine among UFC/MMA diehards a few years ago. Vegas didn't know how to handicap those fights, and anyone who just watched the card every Saturday was at a huge advantage against the oddsmakers. Begged those fellas to cash in on it. Vegas has caught up now and that advantage is gone. But the gaming one seems evergreen at this point. Industry pendulum swing could close the door. Get in while you can fellas.

Then all of that applies equally to would be analysts saying sales are poor. In reality, it doesn’t matter. This is a forum of people discussing a variety of topics that they are not necessarily experts in.
 

xenosys

Member
It's better than a lot of people thought, but 64k for a huge AAA D1 release isn't great. Even an absolute multi-platform mess like Dragon's Dogma 2 was hitting 225k last year.

'Players' isn't unit sold, but they're relying on the ignorance (wilful or otherwise) of gamers to conflate the two when they see that sort of PR pumped out. When the sales charts are published each month, we'll get a better idea of the ratio of 'players' to units sold.
 
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GHG

Gold Member
taash-icon-dragon-age-the-veilguard.jpg

GmeFriWWMAAN-vv

Sure Jan GIF

Didn't stop you defending Veilguard at the time though, to the extent that your nonsense got you banned.

Brady Bunch Jan GIF by MOODMAN
 

Baemono

Member
It's better than a lot of people thought, but 64k for a huge AAA D1 release isn't great. Even an absolute multi-platform mess like Dragon's Dogma 2 was hitting 225k last year.

'Players' isn't unit sold, but they're relying on the ignorance (wilful or otherwise) of gamers to conflate the two when they see that sort of PR pumped out.

I mean it's not like "2+ million players" on HiFi Rush while it is known Game Pass has 25+ million users.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Firstly, you don't "subscribe" to steam, and secondly, the context surrounding the environment upon which these various games released on matters.

They now have well over double the audience to sell to on the platform, yet their CCU numbers do not reflect that.

Pardon my use of the word subscriber.

I don't agree with the notion that a higher audience would automatically translate to higher sales, otherwise almost every game releasing on Steam will be doing better than games released 5, 6 years ago, which is obviously not the case.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Pardon my use of the word subscriber.

I don't agree with the notion that a higher audience would automatically translate to higher sales, otherwise almost every game releasing on Steam will be doing better than games released 5, 6 years ago, which is obviously not the case.

Big new releases that are successful on the platform are consistently breaking the records set in previous years.

It's not automatic, it's not supposed to be, but when it does happen it is a marker that the game has performed in a way that is reflective of the new larger audience afforded to it.

Scraping above previous titles in the same series that released on to a platform with under half the available audience at the time is not worth shouting about.

But, what I do see as more positive is the fact that the reviews for the title are generally favourable on Steam and seem to be trending upwards.
 
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Pardon my use of the word subscriber.

I don't agree with the notion that a higher audience would automatically translate to higher sales, otherwise almost every game releasing on Steam will be doing better than games released 5, 6 years ago, which is obviously not the case.

Not only that, but I think some games even sell more if they’re exclusive or timed exclusive. It drives hype and conversations. Like I bet Rise of the Ronin would have sold less if it was Day 1 on PC.
 

WoJ

Member
The steam number doesn't look promising, nor does the language around "players" instead of sales. AC is a huge franchise. I'm not sure if it sells like Madden, COD, or FIFA, but if it doesn't its probably the next tier down.

I suspect it will have decent sales regardless of the drama. Probably won't be the hit Ubisoft wants/needs it to be.
 

Baemono

Member
It would be a big success for some midtier AA game, it would be break even/mild success for AC spinoff, its definitely well below expectactions for mainline entry in AC series :)

I mean after the flop of Avatar and Star Wars Outlaws, I really thought this one would do the same (70+ on meta critic and barely reaching 1 million players after several weeks With CCU at 12k at max)

And nobody really cared for Mirage too
 
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nemiroff

Gold Member
People think this number is good?
Compared to what some people hoped would be the flop of the year, and being ~30% more expensive on Steam than on Ubi key sites, and at the top of the Steam AC CCU chart. Yeah, it's actually not too bad.


"players" lol

[image of three keys for AC:S snipped]

I don't get it. Ubi gave three people keys for the game, and? What am I missing?
 
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MMaRsu

Gold Member
Yep 2 million PLAYERS in 48 hours is a terrible number

Thankfully we have a very recent comparison, Monster Hunter Wilds, a game from as big of a franchise as AC, 8 million SOLD in 3 days.

Now that is a good number 👍👍👍

Which no AC has done in years so the comparison makes absolutely zero sense.

Or shall we compare Call of Duty to AC next?

A sequel to a extremely well sold game from 2018 is making bank on sales, what a surprise. In comparison to MWW many games are not succesful.

Keep moving those goalposts guys! Keep fighting!! :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
.

Firstly, you don't "subscribe" to steam, and secondly, the context surrounding the environment upon which these various games released on matters.

They now have well over double the audience to sell to on the platform, yet their CCU numbers do not reflect that.

Again, they didn’t have a subscription service when those older games launched.

People need to be consistent. Either Ubisoft plus premium has terrible uptake and the ‘2 million players’ thing should be almost on par with unit sales…or there are a decent number of folks on the service which would have an impact on the CCUs.
 

MMaRsu

Gold Member
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Again, they didn’t have a subscription service when those older games launched.

People need to be consistent. Either Ubisoft plus premium has terrible uptake and the ‘2 million players’ thing should be almost on par with unit sales…or there are a decent number of folks on the service which would have an impact on the CCUs.
That’s like comparing week 1 sales of Ghost of Yotei with GTA 6 and using that as the benchmark for whether or not GoT did well.

Hey cmon man with all that logic and stuff

SmoggyHilariousBaiji-mobile.gif.7cea0df7367add8a0e7710c032dd73cd.gif
 

GHG

Gold Member
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Again, they didn’t have a subscription service when those older games launched.

People need to be consistent. Either Ubisoft plus premium has terrible uptake and the ‘2 million players’ thing should be almost on par with unit sales…or there are a decent number of folks on the service which would have an impact on the CCUs.

We've been through this before when gamepass has been involved - if the game is good enough for people to want to purchase it then they will do so. That's been reflected multiple times when games released on to gamepass day one have still managed to sell well, both on Steam and elsewhere.

But if people only deem the game to be worthy of a try via a subscription service then that's damning in itself.
 
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calico

Member
Pardon my use of the word subscriber.

I don't agree with the notion that a higher audience would automatically translate to higher sales, otherwise almost every game releasing on Steam will be doing better than games released 5, 6 years ago, which is obviously not the case.
Obviously, games didn't all sell an equal amount x years ago.

If we could go back and magically double the size of Steam's userbase in 2018, then we could reasonably assume the games would have sold more copies than they did.
 

Kotaro

Member
Which no AC has done in years so the comparison makes absolutely zero sense.

Or shall we compare Call of Duty to AC next?

A sequel to a extremely well sold game from 2018 is making bank on sales, what a surprise. In comparison to MWW many games are not succesful.

Keep moving those goalposts guys! Keep fighting!! :messenger_tears_of_joy:

AC Shadows also came after the most successful AC game, Valhalla. And AC is a much bigger franchise than MH actually


What surprised me is that the ACS vs MHW numbers are not even close, that’s just how bad AC Shadows number is
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
We've been through this before when gamepass has been involved - if the game is good enough for people to want to purchase it then they will do so. That's been reflected multiple times when games released on to gamepass day one have still managed to sell well, both on Steam and elsewhere.

But if people only deem the game to be worthy of a try via a subscription service then that's damning in itself.

good thing the game is receiving pretty good user reviews on Steam, and the impression from folks who have played it is quite positive.

But we know why an increased number of people might have considered playing it via subscription instead of buying, don’t we? Consistent attempts to de-market the title from racists and grifters can’t have helped.

That said, the game is only available via purchase on console, not subscription…so only Steam sales would have been impacted.

It’s rising on Console, by the way. Now #1 on the U.S. PS store, up from #2 this morning. And now #3 in the Japan PS Store, up from #4.
 

MMaRsu

Gold Member
AC Shadows also came after the most successful AC game, Valhalla

What surprised me is that the ACS vs MHW numbers are not even close, that’s just how bad AC Shadows number is

Which launched exclusively on Epic and probably sold more on consoles than on PC total.

The game is a huge success bro, don't worry about it :messenger_tears_of_joy:

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Keep crying bro, we can all taste your salty tears.

Ive explained multiple times why that is a good ccu for a game like AC.

But none of you seem interested in actually discussing the topic, you just want to beat down on something you dislike.

Its really see through for all of us to see, and its getting pathetic.
 

Denton

Member
Nobody seems actually interested in discussion the topic at hand though.
I see plenty of discussion, some people are showing why the game is unlikely to make huge profit (or even break even) while others are arguing the opposite. In the end, reality will become known but for now, this is fun too. More than the game itself, at any rate.
 
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MMaRsu

Gold Member
I see plenty of discussion, some people are showing why the game is unlikely to make huge profit (or even break even) while others are arguing the opposite. In the end, reality will become known but for now, this is fun too.
Nobody has acknowledged that these games are generally huge sellers on consoles, not pc.

The ccu's are explainable, and we have explained.

So what is there to discuss. How it will make a profit? We cannot say.
 

Denton

Member
Nobody has acknowledged that these games are generally huge sellers on consoles, not pc.
Well, I do not acknowledge it because I do not consider it a fact. I have played every single mainline AC game (and finished them, too) on PC, everyone I know did too. The IP's PC share was likely equal to that of any individual console, until Ubisoft decided to do the stupid thing and go Ubisoft Connect exclusive. But, this is now their big Steam return, with huge Steam marketing, Steam Deck support, even Steam related trailers. One would expect a big blow-out, but no.

The ccu's are explainable, and we have explained.

Yes, by supposition that most people are buying Ubi Connect reseller keys and subs. Which, again, is just a speculation, not a fact, and still wouldn't be particularly huge win given the much lower monetary share coming to Ubisoft from those purchases.
 
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MMaRsu

Gold Member
If MH Worlds sold 15x as many copies as AC Valhalla then yes it would be just like that...
And you understand that series go through major growth in a period of 7 years? Theyve had 7 years to create a new fanbase

MHW brought MH to the mainstream and MHW capitalized in that.
 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
Nobody has acknowledged that these games are generally huge sellers on consoles, not pc.
It hurts their little narrative. =)

I've yet to see either one of em make a post about Call Of Duty being on its last legs cause Steam sales and Dragon Age outsold COD on Steam lol


Not 1 thread.

So...if they get COD moves 25 to 30 million on console and Steam is irrelevant to that IP, I'm sure they get that with AC, its just a tough pill for them to swallow atm.

Positive reviews by publications, Very positive user reviews on Steam and PSN from gamers that own the game, 2 million players in less then 2 days making it one of the fastest selling AC titles and now the highest CCU of the whole series.....

Next goal post, but it didn't move 100 million and if it did...Ubisoft wanted it to be 200 million bro

Then stocks


(proceeds to start making up new metrics to avoid talking about AC Shadows being number 1 on store fronts and reviewing positively by gamers that own it) lol
 
That’s like comparing week 1 sales of Ghost of Yotei with GTA 6 and using that as the benchmark for whether or not GoT did well.
Except in your example GTA6 is AC: Shadows and GoY is MH: Wilds. One has a massive budget and production value behind them, the other has a relatively high budget but ends up getting more successful. This only makes Shadows example look even worse.
 
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MMaRsu

Gold Member
Well, I do not acknowledge it because I do not consider it a fact. I have played every single mainline AC game (and finished them, too) on PC, everyone I know did too. The IP's PC share was likely equal to that of any individual console, until Ubisoft decided to do the stupid thing and go Ubisoft Connect exclusive.
Considering oldschool AC games had horrible pc ports, I have huge doubts.

Just because you played it on PC doesnt mean most people did.

As a matter of fact AC1 came out on PC later than on consoles as well.

And pc players were treated like shit by Ubisoft.

So no I dont think that the share of console and pc players is equal at all.
 

geary

Member
And you understand that series go through major growth in a period of 7 years? Theyve had 7 years to create a new fanbase

MHW brought MH to the mainstream and MHW capitalized in that.
Also,

MHW is THE top game in genre that doesn't exist. It does really have competitors (same as GTA).
Open-World Action RPG are releasing every month, so the excitement is not the same for the genre.
 

MMaRsu

Gold Member
Except in your example GTA6 is AC: Shadows and GoY is MH: Wilds. One has a massive budget behind them, the other has a relatively high budget but ends up getting more successful. This only makes Shadows example look even worse.
Just because 1 game with a smaller budget is a huge success doesnt make the game with the high budget suddenly a failure.

Jesus christ what kind of absolutely stupid arguments are these?

Im so done with this thread. Absolutely dumb dumb dumb arguments. Whats the fucking point of discussing it if this is the type of shit you can come up with.
 

MMaRsu

Gold Member
Also,

MHW is THE top game in genre that doesn't exist. It does really have competitors (same as GTA).
Open-World Action RPG are releasing every month, so the excitement is not the same for the genre.
Sorry too much logic, you make too much sense bro.

Your goddamn right.
 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
Mods, could y'all make Kotaro's tag "Monster Hunter Wilds sold 8 million copies in 3 days"? We don't want him getting banned for acting like a bot with how much he's repeating it every post 😉

lol I don't even get the point of all that in relation to AC Shadows. They are different games, different publishers, different fanbases etc.

Thats like saying Monster Hunter failed cause GTAV moved 11 million units in 1 day lol
 
Just because 1 game with a smaller budget is a huge success doesnt make the game with the high budget suddenly a failure.

Jesus christ what kind of absolutely stupid arguments are these?

Im so done with this thread. Absolutely dumb dumb dumb arguments. Whats the fucking point of discussing it if this is the type of shit you can come up with.
Failure comes from the sales expectations from the studios, not each other. The whole point of the comparison is that the smaller studio title is having the kind of sales the bigger one should have since they are sold at a similar price range.
 

pudel

Member
Is it really worth it to defend this game? I mean they put now "nonbinary" nonsense into feudal Japan. Their pay2win mtx garbage gets bigger every release. They have now "dailies" and "weeklies"...going full MMO/GaaS style. I dont see much what would be worth to defend here. 🤷‍♂️
 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
Failure comes from the sales expectations from the studios, not each other. The whole point of the comparison is that the smaller studio title is having the kind of sales the bigger one should have since they are sold at a similar price range.
Ok, but you don't really know Ubisoft's sales expectations for this game though and Ubisoft likely will play the long game with content and discounts and many skus like the Switch 2 version or something as their goal might merely be to move units over a long amount of time like you saw with AC Valhalla, that didn't just move 20 million units in 1 day or 1 week or anything wild or a few months

COD might be able to do that, same with FIFA and Madden, but AC is not the same as those games, thus the publishers EXPECTATIONS likely are in check based on the history of what that IP normally does, not what fucking COD or GTA or Monster Hunter is selling

Those are different IP

Thats like saying Capcom should be ashamed cause they didn't move 11 million units in 1 day like GTAV or something weird like that lol
 
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calico

Member
And you understand that series go through major growth in a period of 7 years? Theyve had 7 years to create a new fanbase

MHW brought MH to the mainstream and MHW capitalized in that.
Where's AC's major growth?

The suggestion that comparing AC to MH is akin to comparing Tsushima to GTA is absurd. The last main MH entry might have sold a bit better than the last main AC entry, it did not sell 15x better.
 

EDMIX

Writes a lot, says very little
The suggestion that comparing AC to MH is akin to comparing Tsushima to GTA is absurd
nahhhh I greatly disagree.

Those are different games and the only comparison that would make sense would be the games within that actual series.
 
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