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[Aarglefarg]

I spent a few minutes checking and double checking that I was calculating it right. 80% of ballots cast are for yes according to that poll?

There was another, much smaller (1000 instead of 5000), ReachTEL poll at 61%.

 

[bobnowhere]

Also Tones prefers Savage Garden to Macklemore.

 

[wonzo]

Also Tones prefers Savage Garden to Macklemore.

i agree with tone on this.. .. 🤔

 

[Bernbaum]

I spent a few minutes checking and double checking that I was calculating it right. 80% of ballots cast are for yes according to that poll?

There was another, much smaller (1000 instead of 5000), ReachTEL poll at 61%.

Yeah there was a thingy in the Guardian that said ~77% of ballots had been returned.

Given that polls on the order of 1000 individuals are considered statistically representative of the general populace, it's probably safe to assume this'll get over the line. Clearing the 64% 'Yes' mark set by Ireland would be nice, even though the survey isn't quite the same as their referendum.

 

[Aarglefarg]

I was saying not that 80% of ballots have been returned (which also happens to be true) but that according to that poll, 80% of ballots that have been returned are for Yes.

 

[Bernbaum]

I was saying not that 80% of ballots have been returned (which also happens to be true) but that according to that poll, 80% of ballots that have been returned are for Yes.

80.57% according to Microsoft Excel.

Assuming every unsubmitted ballot is returned as intended, that would put Yes at 88.1% of respondents.

 

[Elaugaufein]

80.57% according to Microsoft Excel.

Assuming every unsubmitted ballot is returned as intended, that would put Yes at 88.1% of respondents.

Which seems oddly decisive given the highest respondent group is 65+ , which has the lowest support and support has consistently polled around 65% population wide. Either something weird is going on with the polling or turnout within demographics is deeply unrepresentative of the demographics.

Maybe Nos just aren't voting ? It's possible the FUD campaign backfired by running on fear of stuff that already happened ? If you think you've lost so decisively already there's not a lot of point in democratic resistance in a process controlled by the enemy.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

It’s utterly bizarre, after decades of this refugee fearmongering bullshit, to be on the side of an issue that benefits from despondency and political impotence.

 

[roosters93]

I hope people here realise that most of the Liberal party actually wants marriage equality. It's a very small number of liberals, and an unfortunately large number of nationals who are against.

That's a worse look no?
If they're a majority it makes the moderates and Turnbull look even weaker.

 

[Elaugaufein]

That's a worse look no?
If they're a majority it makes the moderates and Turnbull look even weaker.

They are very very weak. The closeness in the lower house benefits any splinter group of 3+ since they can potentially force an election, he only has a 1 seat + speaker advantage and only 1 definite guarantee of confidence (McGowan), Sharky's position is probably confidence and supply (it was yes then no then yes) and Katter is no longer guaranteeing it, but is also likely to be buyable.

And the Nats as a party are negative help here.

 

[hirokazu]

80.57% according to Microsoft Excel.

Assuming every unsubmitted ballot is returned as intended, that would put Yes at 88.1% of respondents.

I somehow feel like this is missing the so-called "silent majority" who vote no but wouldn't participate in these polls, like conservative migrant families.

If these numbers are right, that's really encouraging but something feels really off.

 

[Aarglefarg]

"The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates 57.5 per cent of ballot papers in the same-sex marriage postal survey have been returned so far."

Not the 80% reported previously, throwing some polling into doubt.

 

[Quasar]

"The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates 57.5 per cent of ballot papers in the same-sex marriage postal survey have been returned so far."

Not the 80% reported previously, throwing some polling into doubt.

I'm even surprised by that, given past voluntary postal polls and the way in which this probably skews older.

 

[Arksy]

I know this isn't strictly on topic but fuck me, I love the US but god am I glad I didn't move there when I had the chance.

 

[danm999]

I guess it's possible there's a lag between those who have sent theirs back and those the ABS received.

I know this isn't strictly on topic but fuck me, I love the US but god am I glad I didn't move there when I had the chance.

The place Is so messed up there are five or six things you could be referencing when you say this.

 

[Elaugaufein]

It's likely that political polling oversamples the political engaged inherently (unless it's done with a standing sample who are also used for consumer polling) that probably doesn't matter much for elections because of compulsory voting and the demographic corrections applied will fix any implicit sampling bias, but it would lead to significantly overestimating the participation rate for this.

So the next question becomes are the politically engaged more / less / equally likely to vote yes, as the population that returns their surveys ?

 

[Jintor]

i think we should all just freak out quietly and gibber into our cushions like regular folk

 

[Bernbaum]

Time to stick my neck out.

Yes comes in at 67% on November 15th. A decisive if somewhat less than emphatic win for marriage equality.

Lyle Shelton, Tony Abbott and Paul Kelly at the Australian have a whinge about the technicalities of the survey. The No campaign throw their toys out of the cot and claim the following: Yes campaign were bullies; free speech was squandered; fringe left agenda hijacked the campaign; etc...

The bill is put out for everyone to read and The Australian newspaper then makes the conversation about religious freedoms. Parliament votes on the issue when both houses are sitting in the November 27th to December 7th block, Bob Katter says something entertaining and marriage equality is law before Christmas. Malcolm Turnbull tries to make political hay out of the issue despite most pundits thinking Shorten will own the win.

I really think that if it gets through, then the Liberals will want to get it off the national conscience fucking ASAP.

 

[danm999]

I still have a feeling Abbott will use the final bill, whatever it is, as the opportunity to initiate a spill.

 

[Bernbaum]

I still have a feeling Abbott will use the final bill, whatever it is, as the opportunity to initiate a spill.

If he does that, he is going to look worse than when he brought back Knights and Dames.

 

[Elaugaufein]

There's always the risk the Abbott and Co and the Nats team up to force a bill with so many "religious protections" it rolls back antidiscrimination laws and Labor cant back it. In which case the Senate is going to be a fucking mess. Trying to wrangle support for such a bill will make everything so far look easy, especially since it's like marriage equality advocates will be trying to wrangle a counter bill in the Senate at the same time.

 

[Bernbaum]

If there are enough senior members of cabinet like George Brandis, then that isn't likely to happen:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...s/news-story/b61a5fb2500c26822f861ffd7bf16862

The Turnbulls, Pynes, and Brandis', of the Coalition will do what they can to streamline the issue to get it off the agenda.

 

[danm999]

There's always the risk the Abbott and Co and the Nats team up to force a bill with so many "religious protections" it rolls back antidiscrimination laws and Labor cant back it. In which case the Senate is going to be a fucking mess. Trying to wrangle support for such a bill will make everything so far look easy, especially since it's like marriage equality advocates will be trying to wrangle a counter bill in the Senate at the same time.

Yes something along these lines.

Generally I expect Abbott to continue being a disruptive influence because why stop now?

 

[Aarglefarg]

67-33 would look emphatic to me.

 

[Elaugaufein]

67-33 would look emphatic to me.

67-33 with anything much above 50% turnout is about as decisive as these things get.

 

[Arksy]

The place Is so messed up there are five or six things you could be referencing when you say this.

That's the problem. You just don't hear any positive things any more.

 

[Quasar]

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/highrisk-...face-sentence-extensions-20171004-gyty49.html

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ver-all-drivers-licences-20171003-gytshq.html

Another day another raft of ‘terror’ legislation and plans announced. And so we continue down the police state road. And as always there’s no substantial public opposition to all this.

 

[Jintor]

i dunno quasar, i think sometimes you just gotta hand in your civil liberties. all the liberties. the more liberties you cash in the more safe you are. also free, because if you're safe, you're free, so really, the more civil liberties you lose the freeer you are.

/s

 

[Aarglefarg]

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/highrisk-...face-sentence-extensions-20171004-gyty49.html

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ver-all-drivers-licences-20171003-gytshq.html

Another day another raft of ‘terror’ legislation and plans announced. And so we continue down the police state road. And as always there’s no substantial public opposition to all this.

In an interview on ABC radio, Australian Conservatives senator Cory Bernardi suggested he would like the system expanded to spy on welfare recipients.

"If we're going to start gathering data on particular people, I'd like to see that actually happen more in the welfare space as well because I think there's a lot of people that are ripping us off on welfare and it might be an opportunity to tie in a coordinated approach to identifying individuals who are accessing the welfare system."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/the-australian-government-wants-every-drivers-licence-photo

 

[Elaugaufein]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/the-australian-government-wants-every-drivers-licence-photo

Really now ? This from a man who's spent the last month talking about Free Speech and Religious Freedom and Parents Rights.

 

[Arksy]

Cory Bernadi is an idiot with no actual intelligent philosophical basis for his beliefs? Colour me shocked.

 

[bobnowhere]

Hope you all check out Hawkie at the Press club today, he was in rare form launching Gareth Evans' book. It was also apparently the "bluest" speech since Kinky Friedman!

 

[Elaugaufein]

In news that will shock no body who's been paying attention COAG has resulted in a bipartisan consensus that civil liberties are dangerous liabilities that should be curtailed for political expediency as soon as possible.

Only the Liberal NSW Premier even paid lip service to the idea civil liberties are important (I should probably award some credit for that despite it being hollow and spineless because it's the best we got).

Small update: The ACT Chief Minister also managed a token effort on civil liberties , one that would be more practically useful in the short term (limitations on when the Capability can be used) but given that gives things inevitably expand til investigating who tipped over a rubbish bin qualifies it's still pretty token.

 

[munchie64]

The bastards cancelled Lateline!

 

[Elaugaufein]

The bastards cancelled Lateline!

Yup. I'm not that surprised, it's been on death row for years now. It got a reprieve last time after public outcry.

 

[wonzo]

fuck lateline tbh

https://newmatilda.com/2017/06/23/b...-abc-lateline-sparked-racist-nt-intervention/

 

[Jintor]

xenophon just announced he's quitting fed parliament to run for state? or something?

 

[Aarglefarg]

xenophon just announced he's quitting fed parliament to run for state? or something?

Yep, quitting federal politics and returning to state politics in SA.

Maybe something is coming from the citizenship thing?

 

[danm999]

My gut reaction is that the legal advice he's getting from his S44 case isn't good.

And if HIS case isn't good the rest of them will surely be a bloodbath.

 

[Machina]

Gonna need a snap election at this point

 

[Quasar]

Yep, quitting federal politics and returning to state politics in SA.

Maybe something is coming from the citizenship thing?

WTF. So what happens to his party?

 

[Aarglefarg]

WTF. So what happens to his party?

He just said he'll still work with and support his federal NXT colleagues.

It is related to the upcoming high court decision.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Yeah, but without him, will they even get 1 seat at the next election ? Of Clive's crew only Lambie held on and she had made a distinctive persona for herself, most days I don't even remember the names of the NXT Senators.

ETA - If Xenophon goes everyone goes. No one has a more convincing case of meeting reasonable expectation and lack of material advantage than Xenophon. The reading of unreasonable effort will effectively be that a foreign power actively impeded your efforts , thw only remaining question will be what's the threshold for that: outright refusal, unreasonable fees (if so for who ?) , active belligerence ?

 

[jambo]

 

[Elaugaufein]

SHY is probably doing a dance too, as are Bernadi and Hanson. That's a lot of non-major party vote up for grabs potentially.

ETA -
Does SA countback just elect the last NXT on the ticket without further changes ? I assume Nick actually has a decent personal vote to leak, which could potentially have knock on effects. Because if he gets booted it goes to countback even if he already stood down.

 

[Aarglefarg]

He said his advice is he would win the case and he would have announced it earlier if the high court wasn't a distraction.

 

[Quasar]

Yeah, but without him, will they even get 1 seat at the next election ? Of Clive's crew only Lambie held on and she had made a distinctive persona for herself, most days I don't even remember the names of the NXT Senators.

I’ll admit I could not name any.

I guess it all depends on if he’s still the figurehead, just one without a seat in the federal parliament. But I guess it’s all part of the problem of parties built on individuals. Like how One Nation went dark whilst Pauline was out of parliament.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Sinodinos is being treated for cancer.
The prognosis is very good.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-06/arthur-sinodinos-reveals-he-has-cancer/9021522

 

[Dead Man]

He said his advice is he would win the case and he would have announced it earlier if the high court wasn't a distraction.

Could be true. But he does say lots of things.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Could be true. But he does say lots of things.

Its hard to think of a reason to go from Fed to State when you're already Party Leader short of some kind of major personal or family issue.