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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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bobnowhere
Member
Abbott is now losing his shit over Macklemore performing at the Rugby League GF. Keep fighting the future Tones.
A Latte is just steamed coffee with milk in it. It is served hot hence you sip it.
It seems one of the most random right wing sledges given how ubiquitous the practice of drinking hot coffee with milk is.
I have pulled up someone on this phrase who used it non ironically once as an attack.
And believe me they could not explain why it is was a negative thing either.
It seems one of the most random right wing sledges given how ubiquitous the practice of drinking hot coffee with milk is.
I have pulled up someone on this phrase who used it non ironically once as an attack.
And believe me they could not explain why it is was a negative thing either.
Rugby League's entire existence is political. It only came about because of Rugby Union governing bodies refusing to pay their workers.
Elaugaufein
Member
Is anyone else putting together a thread on the Survey thingy ? If not I'll put something together tonight
bobnowhere
Member
George Brandis is on Macklemore's side. Think about that sentence for a while.
Elaugaufein
Member
The Court seems to have decided that subjective requirements for an individuals determination are effectively moot unless the subjective decision is clearly completely irrational or fraudulent, any argument that a reasonable person can convince themselves off is valid. Which isn't exactly outside previous judgments but is once more a shining demonstration of why such requirements are pretty much useless as safeguards.
Basically if the Parliament didn't want the Government to have a slush fund to effectively spend however they want , they shouldn't have legislated the Advance as they did.
Basically if the Parliament didn't want the Government to have a slush fund to effectively spend however they want , they shouldn't have legislated the Advance as they did.
bobnowhere
Member
Abbott now wants to use Wartime only Defence powers to rest control of gas resources from the states. Ok, I'm pretty sure he's losing it now, never go full Trump.
Those injuries he sustained as an amateur boxer are catching up with him.
Elaugaufein
Member
Abbott looking to help WA's secession plans by causing the dissolution of Federation maybe ?
Though Turnbull's arguments about gas developments are weird, any excess gas produced would immediately be exported anyway, because overseas demands (and export capacity) already significantly exceeds supply which is why the current mess exists.
Elaugaufein
Member
Interestingly the Government at the time the Advance was written convinced the Parliament to use a subjective test rather than an objective one because an objective test would be overly limiting. I wonder how that argument would go today, given that subjective tests are to a first approximation equivalent to If (True) statements which is probably overly permissive .
bobnowhere
Member
Savage.
The Sodomites actual sin was that they didn't share their bounty with the poor and desperate. Even I know that from being one of the few non-Catholics at a Catholic school.
He's had his eye on the Australian High Commissioner role in the UK for ages.
The Sodomites actual sin was that they didn't share their bounty with the poor and desperate. Even I know that from being one of the few non-Catholics at a Catholic school.
He's had his eye on the Australian High Commissioner role in the UK for ages.
Candescence
Member
The people of Sodom were gigantic flaming assholes in general, really. The "let us in so we can rape your guest" thing would be cartoonishly evil if not for the actual subject matter involved.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
What are the chances the plebiscite backfires like Brexit and Trump?
Aarglefarg
Member
The Brexit polls beforehand were very close and inconsistent. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589
The 2016 US election polls were relatively close as well compared to marriage equality polls and Clinton won the popular vote, which is most comparable to this survey.
Elaugaufein
Member
The only real risk here is that as a country we're not used to non-compulsory postal surveys with actual impact on changing the law, the last one was 1999 and got.a 47% response rate, so demographic response rates are pretty much a guess. Polling so far has been positive though, there's been some drop in support as you'd expect but Yes is still around 57% while no is on the high 30s or low 40s, which is significantly more than the usual polling stuff up effects. So far Yes voters seen much more likely to have responded too, which is odd, given that to a first approximation the demographics would suggest a No voter should be more likely to have than a Yes voter but Yes has been running a good Get Out the Vote campaign.
I think the postal survey was conceived by Dutton and the other hard right wing along the lines of only old people use the post to send letters still, hence they'll be over-represented in a non compulsory vote, and they tend to be the group most against marriage equality.
What appears to have happened though is that a huge number of young Australians registered or updated their enrolment details, meaning the momentum is behind young Yes voters, sort of corroborating the polls indicating Yes is the favourite and Yes voters are more likely to actually vote.
And of course this has implications going forward if there are a huge number of new young voters on the rolls since demographically they don't tend to vote LNP.
What appears to have happened though is that a huge number of young Australians registered or updated their enrolment details, meaning the momentum is behind young Yes voters, sort of corroborating the polls indicating Yes is the favourite and Yes voters are more likely to actually vote.
And of course this has implications going forward if there are a huge number of new young voters on the rolls since demographically they don't tend to vote LNP.
Elaugaufein
Member
It's actually slightly worse for the LNP than that , given that young people who signed up specifically for this issue are even less likely to vote LNP. It's basically selecting for people who want to vote against them.
Elaugaufein
Member
Do you mean the membership at large ? Which I believe without a doubt.
or
MPs ? Which I know is quite a large number but I'm not sure if its most (at least on the record). I count ~25 on the record in favour + another 3 LNP (2 sitting as Libs). I also count 2 nations (+1 LNP sitting as a NAT). Admittedly on a contentious issue like this the instinct of politicians is to appear to be significantly more conservative than the electorate.
or
MPs ? Which I know is quite a large number but I'm not sure if its most (at least on the record). I count ~25 on the record in favour + another 3 LNP (2 sitting as Libs). I also count 2 nations (+1 LNP sitting as a NAT). Admittedly on a contentious issue like this the instinct of politicians is to appear to be significantly more conservative than the electorate.
Elaugaufein
Member
To be fair by this measure Labor was an anti-gay party at least as recently as Gillard's last day of prime ministership.
accurate
I'm pragmatic enough that for the purposes of getting it done I don't particularly care when they flipped really, though
i_am_ben
running_here_and_there
Yes.
But the hatred displayed by the Liberal Party has always been the more extreme of the two.
bobnowhere
Member
All the polls suggest at least 58%+ firm support, probably higher when undecideds vote. Polls are a little tough to read on this as local polling companies aren't used to voluntary voting but all suggest that progressive and "Yes" voters are more likely to vote than Conservative and "No" voters which is probably at odds to the ridiculous meme going around that anyone under the age of 30 doesn't understand what a letter is or how to find a mailbox.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Seriously, the mail is how our online shopping gets to our sharehouses.
Elaugaufein
Member
Yeah, my flatmate didn't get his either and we're in inner city Brisbane. This is not exactly a shining moment of pride for the ABS and Australia Post.
ETA - Also looking at Wikipedia to put together that count of Libs in favour of SSM , I am a little surprised that City of Brisbane council is the only officially neutral capital city council, I suppose it's because the council is LNP held and they don't want to make trouble before the upcoming Queensland election. I'd basically eat my right foot if the majority of City of Brisbane Liberals weren't supporters.
bobnowhere
Member
For the self proclaimed underdogs, the "No" campaign has some serious cash to spend. Constant adds during the GF.
Elaugaufein
Member
Unless the Yes campaign is a registered charity (for the tax deduction), spending money has to pass the bean counters and it's a hard sell when you're already in "very safe" seat territory. And the associated political entities are not usually corporate favorites.
I believe Yes has been catching up on spending thought since the initial being outspent 5:1 article. Admittedly massive spend during the GF is likely to put no significantly ahead again.
Aarglefarg
Member
Are donations to the no campaign tax deductible?
AdventureRacing
Member
Sports should never be politicised. Don't mind us whilst we flood the GF with ads for the no campaign, that's totally different.
Elaugaufein
Member
The no campaign donations tend to come from organisations that are already tax exempt so it doesn't matter. Or organisations that exist solely to defend "Christian" / " Family" values, you know the type.
Elaugaufein
Member
Or at least one that didn't by definition involved weeks of campaigning. Also any good vertical A4 size Yes flyers available, someone has covered the Yes flyers just down from my house with No ones, after ripping them up.
shanshan310
Member
I can't believe how messy this campaign has gotten. I knew it was going to be shitty but this is something else. Not sure if I can deal with this for another six weeks or whatever. Even if the yes vote overwhelmingly wins, this is still going to be a really crappy year for LGBT rights 
My dad has also come out as one of those "I was going to vote yes but yes campaigners are bullies and now I think they have a secret agenda" people :/
My dad has also come out as one of those "I was going to vote yes but yes campaigners are bullies and now I think they have a secret agenda" people :/
BLAUcopter
Gold Member
Governments love dividing their people and sitting back to watch us all fight each other. Makes things a bit easier come election time.I can't believe how messy this campaign has gotten. I knew it was going to be shitty but this is something else. Not sure if I can deal with this for another six weeks or whatever. Even if the yes vote overwhelmingly wins, this is still going to be a really crappy year for LGBT rights
My dad has also come out as one of those "I was going to vote yes but yes campaigners are bullies and now I think they have a secret agenda" people :/
Elaugaufein
Member
We definitely need a better method for polling PHON support in Queensland (and/or newspapers with a grasp on in house bias and MoE), polls consistently put PHON within 15 +/3 but because that 6 point range is enough to change the 2PP , newspapers run stupid headlines every time it passes or hits the break point.
Aarglefarg
Member
A Sky News ReachTEL poll:
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/914718113857380352
Sent back ballot and voted Yes: 64.3%
Sent back ballot and voted No: 15.5%
Have ballot and plan to vote Yes: 6%
Have ballot and plan to vote No: 5.7%
Have ballot but will not vote: 5.7%
Have not received ballot: 2.8%
bobnowhere
Member
Sky News Reachtel poll:
- Sent back and voted yes: 64.3%
- Sent back and voted no: 15.5%
- Have ballot and will vote yes: 6%
- Have ballot and will vote no: 5.7%
- Have ballot and won't vote: 5.7%
- Have not received ballot: 2.8%
- Sent back and voted yes: 64.3%
- Sent back and voted no: 15.5%
- Have ballot and will vote yes: 6%
- Have ballot and will vote no: 5.7%
- Have ballot and won't vote: 5.7%
- Have not received ballot: 2.8%
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