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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 could boost Game Pass subscribers by 2.5m to 4m, says analysts

Sethbacca

Member
It will slightly move the needle on GP subs temporarily, while completely cannibalizing their sales on the Xbox platform. Most of the people who would be interested in playing COD that own an Xbox likely already have a GP sub anyway, so I don't see this moving the needle much at all.


My prediction :
friends sleep GIF
 
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Jaybe

Member
There are shit loads of 80+ and quite a lot of 90+ games on Gamepass. The library is great, its MS' own offerings, the day one stuff that is severely lacking.

You've got to remember most people are not like us when it comes to consuming Videogames.


Having myself had Game Pass Ultimate for 3 years, there are a lot of great games, but I only had so much time to play, so preferred to let it expire and just buy top quality games that I was interested in playing instead of waiting for what Xbox partnerships group buy or their studios dumped out in an early access state. The person I responded to seemed incredulous a person would want to play things not in the catalog, but the catalog misses the absolute top-tier regrettably.
 
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clarky

Gold Member
Having myself had Game Pass Ultimate for 3 years, there are a lot of great games, but I only had so much time to play, so preferred to let it expire and just buy top quality games that I was interested in playing instead of waiting for what Xbox partnerships group buy or their studios dumped out in an early access state.
That maybe true but i was responding to this:

Game of the Year contenders and 90+ Metacritic score games are notably missing from Game Pass’ catalog. If you only have so much time, better to just buy excellent games and play them versus the good/average content that is most of the catalog.
 
Assuming that's true, those are lost sales IN ADDITION to those of people who ALREADY have an active GPU subscription

LOL

Amazing
 
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Astray

Member
The 100m sub plan has been largely abandoned by this point. They're not trying to get to 100m by brute force anymore, to the point where Satya has removed GP numbers from his KPIs.

I get it, it's fun to meme on that plan's failure, but that plan is past-tense by now.

I've been doing some thinking about this, and what I think they're trying to do with this is to see if they can:

- Energize more Xbox users, where they have a lot of GP penetration, to play COD and away from things like Fortnite or Apex where they only get %30 to a game where they get %100. Even if they lose out on the $70 entry price, that's a worthwhile risk-reward for them.
- Convince Steam users to take a sub in GP and see if they can steal an audience from there, if they manage to convert even %10 of Steam COD players to GP then that's a massive win of its own. This is why PC Gamepass is still very competitive in terms of pricing.

I really don't think people see how much competitive pressure Valve has to face in an environment where Xbox is not the spearhead of Microsoft's gaming efforts.

Microsoft is already recentering around Windows and PC being the main aim (this is another reason why they're pushing influencers to the 'who needs consoles anymore, PC is the way' narrative), and they have a lot of control over Windows and how it integrates with gaming, control that no competitor to Valve has ever had.
 
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Loboxxx

Member
If I were an analyst, I'd say there's a chance it will sell between 2-4m copies, and in turn lose between 2-4m subscribers.
 

Sanepar

Member
Good in theory but personally I dont have time to play one of those in a month never mind all 4. Its the reason I'm not re subbing when it runs out.

Big flaw in the GP model if you ask me.
Gp is good for unemployed, kids, teens and rich nerds with free time focused for games. For regular consumers who play 6 or less hours per week is a waste of money.

I bet will not add even 1mi but since MS hide the numbers and mixed live inside we will never know.
 
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Right? What are you playing if you think the games on that list are not good enough? It must be niche genre at that point.

I don’t know. I play all kinds of games but even I had to drop gp after going through what I wanted to play. I’m not saying the games aren’t good but there’s just so many great games out I don’t want to waste my time on a good/ok game.
 

clarky

Gold Member
The 100m sub plan has been largely abandoned by this point. They're not trying to get to 100m by brute force anymore, to the point where Satya has removed GP numbers from his KPIs.

I get it, it's fun to meme on that plan's failure, but that plan is past-tense by now.

I've been doing some thinking about this, and what I think they're trying to do with this is to see if they can:

- Energize more Xbox users, where they have a lot of GP penetration, to play COD and away from things like Fortnite or Apex where they only get %30 to a game where they get %100. Even if they lose out on the $70 entry price, that's a worthwhile risk-reward for them.
- Convince Steam users to take a sub in GP and see if they can steal an audience from there, if they manage to convert even %10 of Steam COD players to GP then that's a massive win of its own. This is why PC Gamepass is still very competitive in terms of pricing.

I really don't think people see how much competitive pressure Valve has to face in an environment where Xbox is not the spearhead of Microsoft's gaming efforts.

Microsoft is already recentering around Windows and PC being the main aim (this is another reason why they're pushing influencers to the 'who needs consoles anymore, PC is the way' narrative), and they have a lot of control over Windows and how it integrates with gaming, control that no competitor to Valve has ever had.
Gamepass on Steam is the only way to gain any significant market share in that space I think. Steam users are entrenched. Not sure how feasible that would be though.

Look at how much money Epic is throwing at EGS.
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
For how long will that increase last I wonder. Personally I'll subscribe this week, play the campaign and probably never touch the game again.
I bought both Cold War and Vanguard (on discount, after many months obviously) and still haven't even played 1 minute of the multiplayer, paying 20$ to play the campaign and be done with these games is my COD dream since forever.
This is probably the smart way to interact with Xbox. As everything gets it's own month now, they should call it Green history month and lean into it.
 

clarky

Gold Member
GamePass Subs that are not enough anyway to offset the lost sales

LOL

In the end they are losing money
They need someone to stick around for what? 6 months for it to equal a sale, less if those sales are taken from Playstation or Steam. Then MTX factored on top.

But im sure you know the the future and how long these new subs will stick around.
 
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Astray

Member
Gamepass on Steam is the only way to gain any significant market share in that space I think. Steam users are entrenched. Not sure how feasible that would be though.

Look at how much money Epic is throwing at EGS.
Microsoft has significantly more resources than Valve and EGS combined, not just in terms of money, they control Windows, which is an access point for the vast majority of Steam users. Microsoft can make Windows have new gaming focused features that only integrate with its store (things like Rest mode or Quick Resume etc), that would be a way to stand out from Valve's offering in a way Valve can't really combat (and if they play it right, they won't have to face much antitrust scrutiny, they aren't forced to make features that benefit their competitor).

This is why Valve is investing in Linux. They know that Microsoft will be coming after them in some way (and they already tried with UWP, look at Gabe's statement about W8).

Additionally, with the Activision purchase, Microsoft controls Battle.net, which is a launcher that has a sizable amount of users, they're not starting from scratch here. It's only a matter of time until they decide that Elder Scrolls 6 etc etc should be launching on there instead. With Xbox downsizing they will need to extract more from PC gamers.

I think that Gamepass on Steam is not beneficial to either party (Valve gets less money than if they just sell the games, and Microsoft has to share the much smaller sub revenue with them), they may sweet talk in public about how they'd love to get it there, but there's a reason the service never landed on Steam in almost 5 years of operation now.
 
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clarky

Gold Member
Microsoft has significantly more resources than Valve and EGS combined, not just in terms of money, they control Windows, which is an access point for the vast majority of Steam users. Microsoft can make Windows have new gaming focused features that only integrate with its store (things like Rest mode or Quick Resume etc), that would be a way to stand out from Valve's offering in a way Valve can't really combat (and if they play it right, they won't have to face much antitrust scrutiny, they aren't forced to make features that benefit their competitor).

This is why Valve is investing in Linux. They know that Microsoft will be coming after them in some way (and they already tried with UWP, look at Gabe's statement about W8).

Additionally, with the Activision purchase, Microsoft controls Battle.net, which is a launcher that has a sizable amount of users, they're not starting from scratch here. It's only a matter of time until they decide that Elder Scrolls 6 etc etc should be launching on there instead. With Xbox downsizing they will need to extract more from PC gamers.

I think that Gamepass on Steam is not beneficial to either party (Valve gets less money than if they just sell the games, and Microsoft has to share the much smaller sub revenue with them), they may sweet talk in public about how they'd love to get it there, but there's a reason the service never landed on Steam in almost 5 years of operation now.
Fair points. But they have been soundly beaten in the console space, i don't see them doing any better in the PC one to be honest.

At the moment their base is fractured between about 6 launchers and only one of those is what most PC users give a shit about.
 
I can see that, but then the question is how many stay subscribed. I'd be interested to see analysts look into how subscriptions perform in the months following a big release.
Indiana Jones coming up after should help retention, but I don't really know after that.
 

Toots

Gold Member
Yeah sure and if my aunt had balls we'd call her Phil Spencer
GIF by VERZUZ


Can we ban for a week anyone posting a thread pertaining to the console war with "could" or "may" in the title ? I love you Draugoth Draugoth i even helped with your Neogaf gifted Elden ring deluxe edition, but this is really grasping at straws :messenger_downcast_sweat:
 

clarky

Gold Member
Yeah sure and if my aunt had balls we'd call her Phil Spencer
GIF by VERZUZ


Can we ban for a week anyone posting a thread pertaining to the console war with "could" or "may" in the title ? I love you Draugoth Draugoth i even helped with your Neogaf gifted Elden ring deluxe edition, but this is really grasping at straws :messenger_downcast_sweat:
Going off a lot of threads these days on this site and their sources , random twitter warriors etc. I'd say posting stuff from M Patcher industry analyst supreme, is actually a breath of fresh air.
 
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They have Stalker 2, and Avowed also. They need all those to hit big (unlikely) and then keep it rolling to have any chance building GP subs if you ask me.

GP perks for COD also need to be decent.
I'm expecting Avowed to be a massive failure. Stalker 2 is up in the air.
 

clarky

Gold Member
I'm expecting Avowed to be a massive failure. Stalker 2 is up in the air.
I don't think Avowed will be a failure in that it will be shit, more that its a niche title, so yeah a failure for GP and XBOX. Stalker 2 will be good if its not a jank-fest, so unlikely. That one will need a billion patches.
 
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Toots

Gold Member
Going off a lot of threads these days on this site and their sources , random twitter warriors etc. I'd say posting stuff from M Patcher industry analyst supreme, is actually a breath of fresh air.
Im not really in the know (thank god for rm082e rm082e for providing receipts), but i remember Patcher as some kind of clown nostradamus, having the most outlandish takes just so people talk about him (like the majority of vg analysts in his defense).

Anyway you're right it's probably better than yet another MGTOW youtuber tweet...
 
Okay and for how long? A month? Two months? Six months? And would it be enough to counter any churn (not everyone on Game Pass cares about COD)?

For Microsoft's sake they'd better hope it gives a big boost, else Game Pass as-is, is over.

It is a big gamble for MS making it part of GP. There are millions on the table if they just maintained the traditional model.

I am actually surprised they didn't delay it 6 months for GP.

I bet even people at Microsoft Gaming are surprised about it. Again, massive gamble especially considering Starfield, the "Game of the Generation", did nothing for Game Pass growth.

Sure COD as an IP is a lot bigger, but how much pull will an annual release have for the service, both in getting subs and helping to retain them? If MS had a COD MMO equivalent to WOW and locked that to Game Pass that retention would be much easier to retain.

Too bad for them, Warzone exists as a F2P.
 
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GudOlRub

Member
I don't think Avowed will be a failure in that it will be shit, more that its a niche title, so yeah a failure for GP and XBOX. Stalker 2 will be good if its not a jank-fest, so unlikely. That one will need a billion patches.
Even if it isn't shit and it isn't that niche, it's stuck in a shit release month, there are quite a few big games, including RPGs, releasing that month and I'll be really surprised if Avowed is able to compete.
I for one know for sure I'll be playing KCD2, but then you also have Monster Hunter and AC Shadows which will pull quite a few people to play them instead of Avowed.
 

clarky

Gold Member
Even if it isn't shit and it isn't that niche, it's stuck in a shit release month, there are quite a few big games, including RPGs, releasing that month and I'll be really surprised if Avowed is able to compete.
I for one know for sure I'll be playing KCD2, but then you also have Monster Hunter and AC Shadows which will pull quite a few people to play them instead of Avowed.
Talking gamepass here mate and player retention. What else releases doesn't matter when game pass peeps don't buy games.;)

Avowed will always be on gamepass, it just needs to be good.
 
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clarky

Gold Member
Okay and for how long? A month? Two months? Six months? And would it be enough to counter any churn (not everyone on Game Pass cares about COD)?

For Microsoft's sake they'd better hope it gives a big boost, else Game Pass as-is, is over.



I bet even people at Microsoft Gaming are surprised about it. Again, massive gamble especially considering Starfield, the "Game of the Generation", did nothing for Game Pass growth.

Sure COD as an IP is a lot bigger, but how much pull will an annual release have for the service, both in getting subs and helping to retain them? If MS had a COD MMO equivalent to WOW and locked that to Game Pass that retention would be much easier to retain.

Too bad for them, Warzone exists as a F2P.
Thats the rub isn't it. I don't think its make or break, but certainly wont see another COD on the service day one if this doesn't move the needle significantly and permanently.

Warzone and COD Coexist in my experience, most Warzone players use MP to level the guns. Might be worth a Sub instead. Who knows......


Super interested myself to see how this all plays out.
 
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GudOlRub

Member
What else releases doesn't matter when game pass peeps don't buy games.;)
Yeah, I'm curious about that. Is there any data to support that statement?
Not trying to talk shit, I'm genuinely curious.
Anecdotally, all my friends who play games sometimes subscribe to GP to play a certain game they don't think is worth buying, but never stay subscribed more than a month or two. Most games they play, they buy, but a few times per year they subscribe to GP. Same as me.
 

BigLee74

Member
My plan is to sub on pc for one month to play the zombies and that's it.

There's no reason to stay subbed; the catalogue just isn't good.
Awful take.

Anybody new to the Xbox can dine for years on the contents of GamePass. It’s only not worth it if you happen to own most of the big hitters on it, or they don’t tickle your fancy, or you have no interest in what’s upcoming in the very near future.
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
I bet even people at Microsoft Gaming are surprised about it.
I think it's all about Firestick personally and mobile. They just increased their potential cloud install base overnight by 200+ million just from the Firestick app addition, which is Netflix numbers. People still have to sign up, but they want to see if people are going to give it a shot. If even 5 million new people signed up on Amazon which is just 2.5%, it would be a huge gain. There's zero indication that is going to happen, but you never know.

Most sub services are limping along, but Netflix is still dominant because they got there first and then managed to keep it going. Everything they're doing is 100% logical. The rest is just up to consumers to decide what they want to do. People don't need an Xbox, or even an Xbox controller. They can use a dual shock if they want and try out the big holiday games for very cheap.

This is what competition looks like when you're not just paying to keep things off other systems, which does work, but isn't adding anything. They're gambling on trying to get new customers and grow the gaming pool, which by all indications has been shrinking lately.
 

clarky

Gold Member
I think it's all about Firestick personally and mobile. They just increased their potential cloud install base overnight by 200+ million just from the Firestick app addition, which is Netflix numbers. People still have to sign up, but they want to see if people are going to give it a shot. If even 5 million new people signed up on Amazon which is just 2.5%, it would be a huge gain. There's zero indication that is going to happen, but you never know.

Most sub services are limping along, but Netflix is still dominant because they got there first and then managed to keep it going. Everything they're doing is 100% logical. The rest is just up to consumers to decide what they want to do. People don't need an Xbox, or even an Xbox controller. They can use a dual shock if they want and try out the big holiday games for very cheap.

This is what competition looks like when you're not just paying to keep things off other systems, which does work, but isn't adding anything. They're gambling on trying to get new customers and grow the gaming pool, which by all indications has been shrinking lately.
I didn't even know it existed until just recently. They should be advertising it on prime to give it a decent push surely?
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
I didn't even know it existed until just recently. They should be advertising it on prime to give it a decent push surely?
I would think they'd advertise that, if nothing else. No idea what they're doing. I don't use Prime or Firestick.
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
I use both and the xbox app is buried deep. Zero advertising, as far as i come across anyway.
  • Sent out to die?
  • Waiting for next gen and a full rebranding without Xbox?
  • Big beta testing until cloud is finalized with resolution / framerate upgrades and cloud controller?
No idea. I would think they'd put ads all over for it.
 

Unknown?

Member
I don't think it'll move the needle much. Hardcore COD fans want to keep playing till the next year's edition and they don't want to rent a bunch of games they never were going to play so a subscription for a year is way more than just buying the game.
 

clarky

Gold Member
I don't think it'll move the needle much. Hardcore COD fans want to keep playing till the next year's edition and they don't want to rent a bunch of games they never were going to play so a subscription for a year is way more than just buying the game.
On xbox the cost isn't that much more than buying the game and core. IF you only play COD but have kids in the house for example its a great deal.
 

Danknugz

Member
apparently if you ore install black ops 6 it uninstalls all of mw3 on you with no warning? heard this from multiple places, is there a way to avoid that?
 

clarky

Gold Member
  • Sent out to die?
  • Waiting for next gen and a full rebranding without Xbox?
  • Big beta testing until cloud is finalized with resolution / framerate upgrades and cloud controller?
No idea. I would think they'd put ads all over for it.
I just had a look, it only works on the latest firesticks at this time although the few reviews it does have seem to be postive.

Maybe your right and they are waiting for an upgrade or something.
 
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